Articles | Volume 23, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-7871-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-7871-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Nov 2026
Research article |
| 05 Nov 2026
| 05 Nov 2026
Spatiotemporal variations of carbon-water-hydraulic risk for Pinus tabuliformis Carrière Plantations on the Loess Plateau under future climate change
Tianqi Guo
College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
Zhongdian Zhang
School of Geographic Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, China
Henan Key Laboratory for Synergistic Prevention of Water and Soil Environmental Pollution, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, China
Rui Liu
College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
Xiaofei Wu
Shaanxi Academy of Forestry, Xi'an, 710082, China
Xinmei Liu
College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
Chenyi Ju
State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
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Short summary
The persistence of Chinese pine plantations in restoration areas under future climate remains uncertain. We used a calibrated, improved biogeochemical model to simulate carbon, water, and hydraulic risk dynamics from 2000 to 2099. Our results show declining productivity alongside rising water consumption and hydraulic risk, driving an overall 23 %–44 % drop in ecological sustainability. Incorporating hydraulic risk helps reduce overly optimistic predictions of plantation survival.
The persistence of Chinese pine plantations in restoration areas under future climate remains...
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