Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
09 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 09 Oct 2025

Mapping the safe operating space of marine ecosystems under contrasting emission pathways

Timothée Bourgeois, Giang T. Tran, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Schwinger, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Thorsten Blenckner, Olivier Torres, Jean Negrel, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2768', Pearse Buchanan, 05 Nov 2024
    • AC1: 'Authors' reply on RC1 and RC2', Timothée Bourgeois, 25 Feb 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2768', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Nov 2024
    • AC1: 'Authors' reply on RC1 and RC2', Timothée Bourgeois, 25 Feb 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (28 Feb 2025) by Jack Middelburg
AR by Timothée Bourgeois on behalf of the Authors (02 Jul 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Jul 2025) by Jack Middelburg
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (28 Jul 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (28 Jul 2025) by Jack Middelburg
AR by Timothée Bourgeois on behalf of the Authors (08 Aug 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (19 Aug 2025) by Jack Middelburg
AR by Timothée Bourgeois on behalf of the Authors (25 Aug 2025)
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Co-editor-in-chief
This paper maps the safe operating space of marine ecosystems in various metrics, including physical (e.g. temperature, heatwaves, sea-ice, etc), ocean acidification (saturation state), oxygen availability and pelagic ecosystem system functioning (e.g. biomass and production). It provides guidance how different emission scenario are likely to impact marine ecosystems.
Short summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
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