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Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
09 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 09 Oct 2025

Mapping the safe operating space of marine ecosystems under contrasting emission pathways

Timothée Bourgeois, Giang T. Tran, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Schwinger, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Thorsten Blenckner, Olivier Torres, Jean Negrel, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos

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Latest update: 19 Jan 2026
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This paper maps the safe operating space of marine ecosystems in various metrics, including physical (e.g. temperature, heatwaves, sea-ice, etc), ocean acidification (saturation state), oxygen availability and pelagic ecosystem system functioning (e.g. biomass and production). It provides guidance how different emission scenario are likely to impact marine ecosystems.
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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
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