Articles | Volume 22, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025
Research article
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09 Oct 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 09 Oct 2025

Mapping the safe operating space of marine ecosystems under contrasting emission pathways

Timothée Bourgeois, Giang T. Tran, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Schwinger, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Thorsten Blenckner, Olivier Torres, Jean Negrel, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos

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Cited articles

Anderson, S. I., Barton, A. D., Clayton, S., Dutkiewicz, S., and Rynearson, T. A.: Marine phytoplankton functional types exhibit diverse responses to thermal change, Nat. Commun., 12, 6413, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26651-8, 2021. 
Andrianakis, I., Vernon, I. R., McCreesh, N., McKinley, T. J., Oakley, J. E., Nsubuga, R. N., Goldstein, M., and White, R. G.: Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda, PLOS Computational Biology, 11, e1003968, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003968, 2015. 
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. 
Balvanera, P., Brauman, K. A., Cord, A. F., Drakou, E. G., Geijzendorffer, I. R., Karp, D. S., Martín-López, B., Mwampamba, T. H., and Schröter, M.: Essential ecosystem service variables for monitoring progress towards sustainability, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 54, 101152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101152, 2022. 
Bates, N. R., Orchowska, M. I., Garley, R., and Mathis, J. T.: Summertime calcium carbonate undersaturation in shelf waters of the western Arctic Ocean – how biological processes exacerbate the impact of ocean acidification, Biogeosciences, 10, 5281–5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5281-2013, 2013. 
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This paper maps the safe operating space of marine ecosystems in various metrics, including physical (e.g. temperature, heatwaves, sea-ice, etc), ocean acidification (saturation state), oxygen availability and pelagic ecosystem system functioning (e.g. biomass and production). It provides guidance how different emission scenario are likely to impact marine ecosystems.
Short summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
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