Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1897-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-1897-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Mar 2026
Research article |
| 11 Mar 2026
| 11 Mar 2026
Marine particles and their remineralization buffer future ocean biogeochemistry response to climate warming
Joeran Maerz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
now: Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Katharina D. Six
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Soeren Ahmerkamp
Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology, Bremen, Germany
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Rostock, Germany
Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
now: University of Hamburg and Helmholtz Centre Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Clemens Schannwell, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Matteo Willeit, Lars Ackermann, Gregor Knorr, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Gerrit Lohmann, Katharina D. Six, Christian Stepanek, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3384, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We present long-term future projections of the Greenland ice sheet based on three numerical models which all explicitly account for feedbacks between the climate and the Greenland ice sheet. We find that projections vary considerably across the models, particularly beyond 2100. The main reasons for this is the different modelled climate as well as how the modelled climate is translated into snowfall and melt in each of the models.
Chris Smith, Lennart Ramme, Christopher D. Wells, Ada Gjermundsen, Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Timothée Bourgeois, Jörg Schwinger, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Chao Li, and Cecilie Mauritzen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 893–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We run two Earth System Models models in CO2 emissions-driven mode to 2300 for three climate scenarios. For climate overshoot scenarios, there is a large residual warming in the 22nd century in one model, despite negative CO2 emissions, related to Southern Ocean heat release. In both models, while global mean surface temperature is largely reversible, other global and regional climate models exhibit hysteresis and irreversibility.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Marit Sandstad, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Stuart Jenkins, Charles Koven, Glen Peters, Roland Séfèrian, Andrew H. MacDougall, Ashwin Seshadri, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Abigail L. S. Swann, Torben Koenigk, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Hongmei Li, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Nadine Mengis, Anastasia Romanou, Lori T. Sentman, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
When humanity stops emitting carbon dioxide, will temperatures keep rising, stabilize, or fall? Our study reveals in most models, temperatures remain nearly stable, but this hides a balance between the warming in response to radiation imbalance, and the cooling due to uptake of carbon in the land and ocean. Understanding this balance helps refine how much more CO2 we can safely emit.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Kjetil Aas, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicolas Bellouin, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Carla F. Berghoff, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Nathan O. Collier, Thomas H. Colligan, Margot Cronin, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Matt P. Enright, Kazutaka Enyo, Michael Erb, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Filippa Fransner, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Bertrand Guenet, Özgür Gürses, Kirsty Harrington, Ian Harris, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Akihiko Ito, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Yawen Kong, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Charles Koven, Taro Kunimitsu, Xin Lan, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhu Liu, Claire Lo Monaco, Lei Ma, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Joe R. Melton, Natalie Monacci, Erwan Monier, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Jens D. Müller, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Lorna R. Nayagam, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nutzel, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Naiqing Pan, Sudhanshu Pandey, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Pierre Regnier, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Ingunn Skjelvan, T. Luke Smallman, Victoria Spada, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Didier Swingedouw, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Xiangjun Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Erik van Ooijen, Guido R. van der Werf, Sebastiaan J. van de Velde, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3211–3288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2025). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lucas Carnier Casaroli, Nuno Serra, Fatemeh Chegini, and Tatiana Ilyina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-504, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that vortices in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence how the ocean absorbs and releases carbon dioxide. Using a 30-year high-resolution ocean biogeochemical model, we found that these vortices reshape carbon transport and primary production differently during El Niño and La Niña. The vortices can even reverse the role of the ocean from releasing to absorbing carbon, showing that motions hundreds of kilometers wide can shape basin-scale carbon patterns.
Wolfgang A. Müller, Stephan Lorenz, Trang V. Pham, Andrea Schneidereit, Renate Brokopf, Victor Brovkin, Nils Brüggemann, Fatemeh Chegini, Dietmar Dommenget, Kristina Fröhlich, Barbara Früh, Veronika Gayler, Helmuth Haak, Stefan Hagemann, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann Jungclaus, Martin Köhler, Peter Korn, Luis Kornblueh, Clarissa A. Kroll, Julian Krüger, Karel Castro-Morales, Ulrike Niemeier, Holger Pohlmann, Iuliia Polkova, Roland Potthast, Thomas Riddick, Manuel Schlund, Tobias Stacke, Roland Wirth, Dakuan Yu, and Jochem Marotzke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9385–9415, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a new Earth System model configuration framed into the ICON architecture, which provides the baseline for the next generation of climate predictions and projections (hereafter ICON XPP). Two resolutions of ICON XPP are presented that show high runtime performances making it suitable to run long integrations and large-ensemble experiments. ICON XPP similarly perform to CMIP6-class of climate models making it a good basis for climate forecasts and projections, and climate research.
Mariana Salinas-Matus, Nuno Serra, Fatemeh Chegini, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 22, 7519–7534, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7519-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-7519-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use a 27-year eddy-resolving ocean-biogeochemical simulation to assess how mesoscale eddies modulate air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean. Eddies act as persistent carbon sinks, with anticyclones showing enhanced carbon uptake efficiency. Mesoscale features account for ~10 % of the total carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean and about 1 % of the anomalous carbon uptake.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2021–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Yohei Takano and Tatiana Ilyina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean oxygen levels are changing, but we have limited observations to track these changes over time. Natural fluctuations in climate systems, called internal climate variability, make it challenging to detect long-term changes. This study uses model simulations and new observational data to understand how these factors affect our view of past and future oxygen loss. The findings highlight the need to maintain global ocean monitoring to track oxygen loss and evaluate future changes.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Clemens Schannwell, Katharina D. Six, Florian A. Ziemen, Meike Bagge, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Olga Erokhina, Veronika Gayler, Volker Klemann, Virna L. Meccia, Anne Mouchet, and Thomas Riddick
Clim. Past, 21, 719–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-719-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice-sheet–solid-earth model was applied to simulate the time from the Last Glacial Maximum (about 25 000 years before the present) to the pre-industrial period. The model simulations are compared to observational estimates. During this climate transition, the model simulates several abrupt changes in the North Atlantic region, which are initiated by different processes. The underlying mechanisms are analysed and described.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 151–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
While the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate mode, has a similar impact on CO2 growth rates across Earth system models, there is significant uncertainty in the processes behind this relationship. We found a compensatory effect that masks differences in the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate anomalies and observed that the carbon fluxes contributing to global CO2 anomalies originate from different regions and are caused by different drivers.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Katharina D. Six, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Gerhard Schmiedl
Clim. Past, 20, 1785–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a physical and biogeochemical ocean model of the Mediterranean Sea to obtain a picture of the Last Glacial Maximum. The shallowing of the Strait of Gibraltar leads to a shallower pycnocline and more efficient nutrient export. Consistent with the sediment data, an increase in organic matter deposition is simulated, although this is based on lower biological production. This unexpected but plausible result resolves the apparent contradiction between planktonic and benthic proxy data.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Leonidas Linardakis, Irene Stemmler, Moritz Hanke, Lennart Ramme, Fatemeh Chegini, Tatiana Ilyina, and Peter Korn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9157–9176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In Earth system modelling, we are facing the challenge of making efficient use of very large machines, with millions of cores. To meet this challenge we will need to employ multi-level and multi-dimensional parallelism. Component concurrency, being a function parallel technique, offers an additional dimension to the traditional data-parallel approaches. In this paper we examine the behaviour of component concurrency and identify the conditions for its optimal application.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Thomas Extier, Katharina D. Six, Bo Liu, Hanna Paulsen, and Tatiana Ilyina
Clim. Past, 18, 273–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-273-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The role of land–sea fluxes during deglacial flooding in ocean biogeochemistry and CO2 exchange remains poorly constrained due to the lack of climate models that consider such fluxes. We implement the terrestrial organic matter fluxes into the ocean at a transiently changing land–sea interface in MPI-ESM and investigate their effect during the last deglaciation. Most of the terrestrial carbon goes to the ocean during flooding events of Meltwater Pulse 1a, which leads to regional CO2 outgassing.
Katharina Dorothea Six and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a global ocean biogeochemical model with a zoom on the Benguela upwelling system. We show that the high spatial resolution is necessary to capture long-term trends of oxygen of the recent past. The regional anthropogenic carbon uptake over the last century is lower than compared to a coarser resolution ocean model as used in Earth system models. This suggests that, at least for some regions, the changes projected by these Earth system models are associated with high uncertainty.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Bo Liu, Katharina D. Six, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 18, 4389–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We incorporate a new representation of the stable carbon isotope 13C in a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The model well reproduces the present-day 13C observations. We find a recent observation-based estimate of the oceanic 13C Suess effect (the decrease in 13C/12C ratio due to uptake of anthropogenic CO2; 13CSE) possibly underestimates 13CSE by 0.1–0.26 per mil. The new model will aid in better understanding the past ocean state via comparison to 13C/12C measurements from sediment cores.
Cited articles
Ahmerkamp, S., Liu, B., Kindler, K., Maerz, J., Stocker, R., Kuypers, M. M. M., and Khalili, A.: Settling of highly porous and impermeable particles in linear stratification: implications for marine aggregates, J. Fluid Mech., 931, A9, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2021.913, 2022. a
Alldredge, A. L. and Gotschalk, C.: In situ settling behaviour of marine snow, Limnol. Oceanogr., 33, 339–351, 1988. a
Alldredge, A. L., Passow, U., and Logan, B. E.: The abundance and significance of a class of large, transparent organic particles in the ocean, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 40, 1131–1140, 1993. a
Anitas, E. M.: Small-Angle Scattering from Fractals: Differentiating between Various Types of Structures, Symmetry, 12, 65, https://doi.org/10.3390/sym12010065, 2020. a
Archibald, K. M., Siegel, D. A., and Doney, S. C.: Modeling the impact of zooplankton diel vertical migration on the carbon export flux of the biological pump, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 33, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB005983, 2019. a, b
Atlas, R., Hoffmann, R. N., Ardizzone, J., Leidner, S. M., Jusem, J. C., Smith, D. K., and Gombos, D.: A cross-calibrated, multi- platform ocean surface wind velocity product for meteorological and oceanographic applications, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 157–174, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2946.1, 2011. a
Aumont, O., van Hulten, M., Roy-Barman, M., Dutay, J.-C., Éthé, C., and Gehlen, M.: Variable reactivity of particulate organic matter in a global ocean biogeochemical model, Biogeosciences, 14, 2321–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2321-2017, 2017. a
Aumont, O., Maury, O., Lefort, S., and Bopp, L.: Evaluating the potential impacts of the diurnal vertical migration by marine organisms on marine biogeochemistry, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 32, 1622–1643, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB005886, 2018. a
Azetsu-Scott, K. and Passow, U.: Ascending marine particles: Significance of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) in the upper ocean, Limnol. Oceanogr., 49, 741–748, 2004. a
Bacastow, R. and Maier-Reimer, E.: Ocean-circulation model of the carbon cycle, Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–125, 1990. a
Balch, W. M., Bowler, B. C., Drapeau, D. T., Poulton, A. J., and Holligan, P. M.: Biominerals and the vertical flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044640, 2010. a
Bandara, K., Varpe, Ø., Wijewardene, L., Tverberg, V., and Eiane, K.: Two hundred years of zooplankton vertical migration research, Biol. Rev., 96, 1547–1589, https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12715, 2021. a
Bidle, K. D., Manganelli, M., and Azam, F.: Regulation of oceanic silicon and carbon preservation by temperature control on bacteria, Science, 298, 1980–1984, 2002. a
Bindoff, N. L., Cheung, W. W. W., Kairo, J. G., Arístegui, J., Guinder, V. A., Hallberg, R., Hilmi, N., Jiao, N., Karim, M. S., Levin, L., O'Donoghue, S., Purca Cuicapusa, S., Rinkevich, B., Suga, T., Tagliabue, A., and Williamson, P.: Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, and dependent communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Cimate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Camebridge, UL and New York, 447–587, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.007, 2019. a
Boyd, P. W., Claustre, H., Levy, M., Siegel, D. A., and Weber, T.: Multi-faceted particle pumps drive carbon sequestration in the ocean, Nature, 568, 327–335, 2019. a
Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Baranova, O. K., Coleman, C., Garcia, H. E., Grodsky, A., Johnson, D. R., Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., O'Brien, T. D., Paver, C. R., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Smolyar, I. V., and Zweng, M. M.: World Ocean Database 2013, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 72, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5NZ85MT, 2013. a
Brix, H., Gruber, N., Karl, D. M., and Bates, N. R.: On the relationships between primary, net community, and export production in subtropical gyres, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 53, 698–717, 2006. a
Broecker, W. S.: Keeping global change honest, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 5, 191–192, 1991. a
Busecke, J. J. M., Resplandy, L., Ditkovsky, S. J., and John, J. G.: Diverging fates of the Pacific Ocean oxygen minimum zone and its core in a warming world, AGU Advances, 3, e2021AV000470, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000470, 2022. a
Cael, B. B., Cavan, E. L., and Britten, G. L.: Reconciling the size-dependence of marine particle sinking speed, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091771, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091771, 2021. a
Chau, T. T. T., Gehlen, M., and Chevallier, F.: Quality Information Document for Global Ocean Surface Carbon Product MUL- TIOBS_GLO_BIO_CARBON_SURFACE_REP_015_008, PhD thesis, Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02957656/file/CMEMS-MOB-QUID-015-008.pdf (last access: 5 March 2026), 2020. a
Cinquini, L., Crichton, D., Mattmann, C., Harney, J., Shipman, G., Wang, F., Ananthakrishnan, R., Miller, N., Denvil, S., Morgan, M., Pobre, Z., Bell, G. M., Doutriaux, C., Drach, R., Williams, D., Kershaw, P., Pascoe, S., Gonzalez, E., Fiore, S., and Schweitzer, R.: The Earth System Grid Federation: An open infrastructure for access to distributed geospatial data, Future Gener. Comp. Sy., 36, 400–417, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2013.07.002, 2014. a
Cram, J. A., Weber, T., Leung, S. W., McDonnell, A. M. P., Liang, J.-H., and Deutsch, C.: The role of particle size, ballast, temperature, and oxygen in the sinking flux to the deep sea, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 858–876, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GB005710, 2018. a, b
Cram, J. A., Fuchsman, C. A., Duffy, M. E., Pretty, J. L., Lekanoff, R. M., Neibauer, J. A., Leung, S. W., Huebert, K. B., Weber, T. S., Bianchi, D., Evans, N., Devol, A. H., Keil, R. G., and McDonnell, A. M.: Slow particle remineralization, rather than suppressed disaggregation, drives efficient flux transfer through the eastern tropical north Pacific oxygen deficient zone, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 36, e2021GB007080, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007080, 2022. a
Crameri, F., Shephard, G., and Heron, P.: The misuse of colour in science communication, Nat. Commun., 11, 5444, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7, 2020. a
Crichton, K. A., Wilson, J. D., Ridgwell, A., and Pearson, P. N.: Calibration of temperature-dependent ocean microbial processes in the cGENIE.muffin (v0.9.13) Earth system model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 125–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-125-2021, 2021. a
Denvil-Sommer, A., Gehlen, M., Vrac, M., and Mejia, C.: LSCE-FFNN-v1: a two-step neural network model for the reconstruction of surface ocean pCO2 over the global ocean, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, 2019. a
Dever, M., Nicholson, D., Omand, M. M., and Mahadevan, A.: Size-differentiated export flux in different dynamical regimes in the ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 35, e2020GB006764, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006764, 2021. a
Dietze, H. and Loeptien, U.: Revisiting “nutrient trapping” in global coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation models, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20029, 2013. a, b
Dilling, L. and Alldredge, A. L.: Fragmentation of marine snow by swimming macrozooplankton: A new process impacting carbon cycling in the sea, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 47, 1227–1245, 2000. a
Dinauer, A., Laufkötter, C., Doney, S., and Joos, F.: What controls the large-scale efficiency of carbon transfer through the oceans's mesopelagic zone? Insights from a new, mechanistic model (MSPACMAM), Global Biogeochem. Cy., 36, e2021GB007131, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007131, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Dunne, J. P., Armstrong, R. A., Gnanadesikan, A., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Empirical and mechanistic models for the particle export ratio, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB4026, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002390, 2005. a
Duteil, O., Frenger, I., and Getzlaff, J.: The riddle of eastern tropical Pacific Ocean oxygen levels: the role of the supply by intermediate-depth waters, Ocean Sci., 17, 1489–1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1489-2021, 2021. a, b
Fay, A. R., Gregor, L., Landschützer, P., McKinley, G. A., Gruber, N., Gehlen, M., Iida, Y., Laruelle, G. G., Rödenbeck, C., Roobaert, A., and Zeng, J.: SeaFlux: harmonization of air–sea CO2 fluxes from surface pCO2 data products using a standardized approach, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4693–4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, 2021. a
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2013, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 75, Volume 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation, 27 pp., https://doi.org/10.7289/V5XG9P2W, 2014a. a
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., and Reagan, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2013, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 76, Volume 4: Dissolved Inorganic Nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate), 25 pp., https://doi.org/10.7289/V5J67DWD, 2014b. a
Gehlen, M., Bopp, L., Emprin, N., Aumont, O., Heinze, C., and Ragueneau, O.: Reconciling surface ocean productivity, export fluxes and sediment composition in a global biogeochemical ocean model, Biogeosciences, 3, 521–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-3-521-2006, 2006. a
Giering, S. L. C., Sanders, R., Martin, A. P., Henson, S. A., Riley, J. S., Marsay, C. M., and Johns, D. G.: Particle flux in the oceans: Callenging the steady state assumption, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 31, 159–171, 2017. a
Gloege, L., McKinley, G. A., Mouw, C. B., and Ciochetto, A. B.: Global evaluation of particulate organic carbon flux parameterizations and implications for atmospheric pCO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 31, 1192–1215, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005535, 2017. a
Goris, N., Johannsen, K., and Tjiputra, J.: The emergence of the Gulf Stream and interior western boundary as key regions to constrain the future North Atlantic carbon uptake, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2095–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023, 2023. a
Gregor, L., Lebehot, A. D., Kok, S., and Scheel Monteiro, P. M.: A comparative assessment of the uncertainties of global surface ocean CO2 estimates using a machine-learning ensemble (CSIR-ML6 version 2019a) – have we hit the wall?, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5113–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5113-2019, 2019. a
Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E., DeVries, T., Gregor, L., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., McKinley, G. A., and Müller, J. D.: Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 4, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00381-x, 2023. a
Hagemann, S. and Dümenil, L.: A parametrization of the lateral waterflow for the global scale, Clim. Dynam., 14, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050205, 1997. a
Hamm, C. E.: Interactive aggregation and sedimentation of diatoms and clay-sized lithogenic material, Limnol. Oceanogr., 47, 1790–1795, 2002. a
Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G. P.: Emissions – the `business as usual' story is misleading, Nature, 577, 618–620, 2020. a
Hegglin, M., Kinnison, D., and Lamarque, J.-F.: CCMI nitrogen surface fluxes in support of CMIP6 – version 2.0, Version 20161207, 20161207. Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.1125, 2016. a
Heinemann, M., Segschneider, J., and Schneider, B.: CO2 drawdown due to particle ballasting by glacial aeolian dust: an estimate based on the ocean carbon cycle model MPIOM/HAMOCC version 1.6.2p3, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1869-2019, 2019. a
Heinze, C., Blenckner, T., Martins, H., Rusiecka, D., Döscher, R., Gehlen, M., Gruber, N., Holland, E., Hov, Ø., Joos, F., Matthews, J. B. R., Rødven, R., and Wilson, S.: The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2008478118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008478118, 2021. a, b
Henson, S. A., Sanders, R., and Madsen, E.: Global patterns in efficiency of particulate organic carbon export and transfer to the deep ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 265, GB1028, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004099, 2012. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janiskobaá, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hofmann, M. and Schellnhuber, H.-J.: Ocean acidification affects marine carbon pump and triggers extended marine oxygen holes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 3017–3022, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0813384106, 2009. a
Hohenegger, C., Korn, P., Linardakis, L., Redler, R., Schnur, R., Adamidis, P., Bao, J., Bastin, S., Behravesh, M., Bergemann, M., Biercamp, J., Bockelmann, H., Brokopf, R., Brüggemann, N., Casaroli, L., Chegini, F., Datseris, G., Esch, M., George, G., Giorgetta, M., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., Hanke, M., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jungclaus, J., Kern, M., Klocke, D., Kluft, L., Kölling, T., Kornblueh, L., Kosukhin, S., Kroll, C., Lee, J., Mauritsen, T., Mehlmann, C., Mieslinger, T., Naumann, A. K., Paccini, L., Peinado, A., Praturi, D. S., Putrasahan, D., Rast, S., Riddick, T., Roeber, N., Schmidt, H., Schulzweida, U., Schütte, F., Segura, H., Shevchenko, R., Singh, V., Specht, M., Stephan, C. C., von Storch, J.-S., Vogel, R., Wengel, C., Winkler, M., Ziemen, F., Marotzke, J., and Stevens, B.: ICON-Sapphire: simulating the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and subkilometer scales, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023. a
Iida, Y., Takatani, Y., Kojima, A., and Ishii, M.: Global trends of ocean CO2 sink and ocean acidification: an observation- based reconstruction of surface ocean inorganic carbon variables, J. Oceanogr., 77, 323–358, 2020. a
Ilyina, T. and Friedlingstein, P.: WCRP Grand Challenge – Carbon feedbacks in the climate system, Tech. rep., WCRP, https://www.wcrp-climate.org/JSC37/Documents/BGCGC_whitepaper_submission.pdf (last access: 5 March 2026), 2016. a
Ilyina, T., Six, K. D., Segschneider, J., Maier-Reimer, E., Li, H., and Núñez-Riboni, I.: Global ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC: Model architecture and performance as component of the MPI-Earth system model in different CMIP5 experimental realizations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, 1–29, 2013. a, b, c
Jackson, G. A.: A model of the formation of marine algal flocs by physical coagulation processes, Deep-Sea Res., 37, 1197–1211, 1990. a
Jackson, G. A. and Burd, A. B.: Simulating aggregate dynamics in ocean biogeochemical models, Prog. Oceanogr., 133, 55–65, 2015. a
Johnson, K. S. and Bif, M. B.: Constraint on net primary productivity of the global ocean by Argo oxygen measurements, Nat. Geosci., 14, 769–774, 2021. a
Jokulsdottir, T. and Archer, D.: A stochastic, Lagrangian model of sinking biogenic aggregates in the ocean (SLAMS 1.0): model formulation, validation and sensitivity, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1455–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1455-2016, 2016. a
Jungclaus, J. H., Fischer, N., Haak, H., Lohmann, K., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., and von Storch, J. S.: Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, 422–446, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20023, 2013. a, b, c
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Schmidt, H., Brovkin, V., Brüggemann, N., Chegini, F., Crüger, T., De-Vrese, P., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M. A., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hanke, M., Ilyina, T., Korn, P., Kröger, J., Linardakis, L., Mehlmann, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Putrasahan, D. A., Raddatz, T., Ramme, L., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Riddick, T., Sam, T., Schneck, R., Schnur, R., Schupfner, M., von Storch, J.-S., Wachsmann, F., Wieners, K.-H., Ziemen, F., Stevens, B., Marotzke, J., and Claussen, M.: The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002813, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002813, 2022. a
Karakuş, O., Nissen, C., Völker, C., Hagen, W., Iversen, M., Oziel, L., Gürses, Ö., and Hauck, J.: The role of ballasting, seawater viscosity and oxygen-dependent remineralization for export and transfer efficiencies in the global ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 39, e2024GB008403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GB008403, 2025. a
Khelifa, A. and Hill, P. S.: Models for effective density and settling velocity of flocs, J. Hydraul. Res., 44, 390–401, 2006. a
Klaas, C. and Archer, D. E.: Association of sinking organic matter with various types of mineral ballast in the deep sea: Implications for the rain ratio, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 1116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001765, 2002. a
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Takahashi, K.: The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015. a
Kriest, I. and Evans, G. T.: Representing phytoplankton aggregates in biogeochemical models, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 46, 1841–1859, 1999. a
Kriest, I. and Oschlies, A.: On the treatment of particulate organic matter sinking in large-scale models of marine biogeochemical cycles, Biogeosciences, 5, 55–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-55-2008, 2008. a, b
Kriest, I., Getzlaff, J., Landolfi, A., Sauerland, V., Schartau, M., and Oschlies, A.: Exploring the role of different data types and timescales in the quality of marine biogeochemical model calibration, Biogeosciences, 20, 2645–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2645-2023, 2023. a, b
Kuntz, L. B. and Schrag, D. P.: Representation of the Equatorial Undercurrent in CMIP5 Models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 50, 2997–3007, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0007.1, 2020. a
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E., and Schuster, U.: Recent variability of the global ocean carbon sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 28, 927–949, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004853, 2014. a
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E., Stemmler, I., and Six, K. D.: Strengthening seasonal marine CO2 variations due to increasing atmospheric CO2, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 146–150, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0057-x, 2018. a
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.: An observation-based global monthly gridded sea surface pCO2 product from 1982 onward and its monthly climatology (NCEI Accession 0160558), Version 5.5, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5Z899N6, 2020. a
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J., Hashioka, T., Hauck, J., Hirata, T., John, J., Le Quéré, C., Lima, I. D., Nakano, H., Seferian, R., Totterdell, I., Vichi, M., and Völker, C.: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models, Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015. a, b, c, d
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Hauck, J., John, J. G., Lima, I. D., Seferian, R., and Völker, C.: Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem, Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Laufkötter, C., John, J. G., Stock, C. A., and Dunne, J. P.: Temperature and oxygen dependence of the remineralization of organic matter, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 31, 1038–1050, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005643, 2017. a
Lauvset, S. K., Key, R. M., Olsen, A., van Heuven, S., Velo, A., Lin, X., Schirnick, C., Kozyr, A., Tanhua, T., Hoppema, M., Jutterström, S., Steinfeldt, R., Jeansson, E., Ishii, M., Perez, F. F., Suzuki, T., and Watelet, S.: A new global interior ocean mapped climatology: the 1° × 1° GLODAP version 2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 325–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-325-2016, 2016. a
Laws, E. A., Falkowski, P. G., Smith Jr., W. O., Ducklow, H., and McCarthy, J. J.: Temperature effects on export production in the open ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 14, 1231–1246, 2000. a
Le Moigne, F. A. C., Cisternas-Novoa, C., Piontek, J., Maßmig, M., and Engel, A.: On the effect of low oxygen concentrations on bacterial degradation of sinking particles, Sci. Rep., 7, 16722, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-16903-3, 2017. a
Lévy, M., Ferrari, R., Franks, P. J. S., Martin, A. P., and Rivière, P.: Bringing physics to life at the submesoscale, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L14602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052756, 2012. a
Levy, M., Bopp, L., Karleskind, P., Resplandy, L., Ethe, C., and Pinsard, F.: Physical pathways for carbon transfers between the surface mixed layer and the ocean interior, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 1001–1012, https://doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20092, 2013. a, b
Liu, B., Maerz, J., and Ilyina, T.: Glacial Atlantic Carbon Storage Enhanced by a Shallow AMOC and Marine Aggregates Sinking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL109736, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109736, 2024. a
Logan, B. E. and Kilps, J. R.: Fractal dimensions of aggregates formed in different fluid mechanical environments, Water Res., 29, 443–453, 1995. a
Maerz, J.: Data and Scripts for “Marine particles and their remineralization buffer future ocean biogeochemistry response to climate warming”, Edmond [data set] and [code], https://doi.org/10.17617/3.UPQW7H, 2025. a
Maerz, J., Six, K. D., Stemmler, I., Ahmerkamp, S., and Ilyina, T.: Microstructure and composition of marine aggregates as co-determinants for vertical particulate organic carbon transfer in the global ocean, Biogeosciences, 17, 1765–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q
Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Dobrynin, M., Kornblueh, L., Kröger, J., Takano, Y., Gosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Raddatz, T., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2050–2069, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639, 2019. a
Mahowald, N. M., Baker, A. R., Bergametti, G., Brooks, N., Duce, R. A., Jickells, T. D., Kubilay, N., Prspero, J. M., and Tegen, I.: Atmospheric global dust cycle and iron inputs to the ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB4025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002402, 2005. a
Mari, X., Passow, U., Migon, C., Burd, A. B., and Legendre, L.: Transparent exopolymer particles: Effects on carbon cycling in the ocean, Prog. Oceanogr., 151, 13–37, 2017. a
Marsay, C. M., Sanders, R. J., Henson, S. A., Pabortsava, K., Achterberg, E. P., and Lampitt, R. S.: Attenuation of sinking particulate organic carbon flux through the mesopelagic ocean, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 1089–1094, 2015. a
Marsland, S. J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Latif, M., and Röske, F.: The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates, Ocean Model., 5, 91–127, 2003. a
Martin, A., Boyd, P., Buesseler, K., Cetinic, I., Claustre, H., Giering, S., Henson, S., Irigoien, X., Kriest, I., Memery, L., Robinson, C., Saba, G., Sanders, R., Siegel, D., Villa-Alfagame, M., and Guidi, L.: Study the twilight zone before it is too late, Nature, 580, 26–28, 2020. a
Mathis, M., Logemann, K., Maerz, J., Lacroix, F., Hagemann, S., Chegini, F., Ramme, L., Ilyina, T., Korn, P., and Schrum, C.: Seamless Integration of the coastal Ocean in Global Marine Carbon Cycle Modeling, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002789, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002789, 2022. a
Mathis, M., Lacroix, F., Hagemann, S., Nielsen, D. M., Ilyina, T., and Schrum, C.: Enhanced CO2 uptake of the coastal ocean is dominated by biological carbon fixation, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 373–379, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01956-w, 2024. a
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 1–41, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Mayor, D. J., Sanders, R., Giering, S. L. C., and Anderson, T. R.: Microbial gardening in the ocean's twilight zone: Detritivorous metazoans benefit from fragmenting, rather than ingesting, sinking detritus, BioEssays, 36, 11321137, https://doi.org/10.1002/bies.201400100, 2014. a
Mayor, D. J., Gentleman, W. C., and Anderson, T. R.: Ocean carbon sequestration: Particle fragmentation by copepods as a significant unrecognised factor?, BioEssays, 42, e2000149, https://doi.org/10.1002/bies.202000149, 2020. a
Meakin, P.: Models for colloidal aggregation, Ann. Rev. Phys. Chem., 39, 237–267, 1988. a
Mislan, K. A. S., Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., and Sarmiento, J.: Group behaviour among model bacteria influences particulate carbon mineralization depths, J. Mar. Res., 72, 183–218, 2014. a
Model Development Team Max-Planck-Institut für Meterologie: MPI-ESM 1.2.01p7, Edmond [code], https://doi.org/10.17617/3.H44EN5, 2024. a
Najjar, R. G., Sarmiento, J. L., and Toggweiler, J.: Downward transport and fate of organic matter in the ocean: simulations with a general circulation model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 6, 45–76, 1992. a
Najjar, R. G., Jin, X., Louanchi, F., Aumont, O., Caldeira, K., Doney, S. C., Dutay, J.-C., Follows, M., Gruber, N., Joos, F., Lindsay, K., Maier-Reimer, E., Matear, R. J., Matsumoto, K., Monfray, P., Mouchet, A., Orr, J. C., Plattner, G.-K., Sarmiento, J. L., Schlitzer, R., Slater, R. D., Weirig, M. F., Yamanaka, Y., and Yool, A.: Impact of circulation on export production, dissolved organic matter, and dissolved oxygen in the ocean: Results from Phase II of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2), Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB3007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002857, 2007. a
Nguyen, T. T., Zakem, E. J., Ebrahimi, A., Schwartzman, J., Caglar, T., Amarnath, K., Alcolombri, U., Peaudecerf, F. J., Hwa, T., Stocker, R., Cordero, O. X., and Levine, N. M.: Microbes contribute to setting the ocean carbon flux by altering the fate of sinking particulates, Nat. Commun., 13, 1657, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29297-2, 2022. a
Nielsen, D. M., Chegini, F., Serra, N., Kumar, A., Brüggemann, N., Hohenegger, C., and Ilyina, T.: Resolved tropical cyclones trigger CO2 uptake and phytoplankton bloom in an Earth system model simulation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2506103122, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2506103122, 2025. a
Olsen, A., Key, R. M., van Heuven, S., Lauvset, S. K., Velo, A., Lin, X., Schirnick, C., Kozyr, A., Tanhua, T., Hoppema, M., Jutterström, S., Steinfeldt, R., Jeansson, E., Ishii, M., Pérez, F. F., and Suzuki, T.: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project version 2 (GLODAPv2) – an internally consistent data product for the world ocean, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 297–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-297-2016, 2016. a
Omand, M. M., Govindarajan, R., He, J., and Mahadevan, A.: Sinking flux of particulate organic matter in the oceans: Sensitivity to particle characteristics, Sci. Rep., 10, 5582, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60424-5, 2020. a, b
Organelli, E., Dall'Olmo, G., Brewin, R. J., Tarran, G. A., Boss, E., and Bricaud, A.: The open-ocean missing backscattering is in the structural complexity of particles, Nat. Commun., 9, 5439, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07814-6, 2018. a
Passow, U.: Transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) in aquatic environments, Prog. Oceanogr., 55, 287–333, 2002. a
Passow, U.: Switching perspectives: Do mineral fluxes determine particulate organic carbon fluxes or vice versa?, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 5, Q04002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GC000670, 2004. a
Passow, U. and De La Rocha, C. L.: Accumulation of mineral ballast on organic aggregates, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, GB1013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002579, 2006. a
Paulsen, H., Ilyina, T., Six, K. D., and Stemmler, I.: Incorporating a prognostic representation of marine nitrogen fixers into the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 9, 438–464, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000737, 2017. a, b, c
Pinti, J., DeVries, T., Norin, T., Serra-Pompei, C., Proud, R., Siegel, D. A., Kiørboe, T., Petrik, C. M., Andersen, K. H., Brierley, A. S., and Visser, A. W.: Model estimates of metazoans' contributions to the biological carbon pump, Biogeosciences, 20, 997–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-997-2023, 2023. a
Planchat, A., Kwiatkowski, L., Bopp, L., Torres, O., Christian, J. R., Butenschön, M., Lovato, T., Séférian, R., Chamberlain, M. A., Aumont, O., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Yool, A., Ilyina, T., Tsujino, H., Krumhardt, K. M., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Dunne, J. P., and Stock, C.: The representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump from CMIP5 to CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for the carbon cycle, Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023. a
Quigg, A., Santschi, P. H., Burd, A., Chin, W.-C., Kamalanathan, M., Xu, C., and Ziervogel, K.: From nano-gels to marine snow: A synthesis of gel formation processes and modeling efforts involved with particle flux in the ocean, Gels, 7, 114, https://doi.org/10.3390/gels7030114, 2021. a
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a
Rödenbeck, C., Keeling, R. F., Bakker, D. C. E., Metzl, N., Olsen, A., Sabine, C., and Heimann, M.: Global surface-ocean pCO2 and sea–air CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme, Ocean Sci., 9, 193–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-193-2013, 2013. a
Röske, F.: Global oceanic heat and fresh water forcing datasets based on ERA-40 and ERA-15, Tech. Rep. 13, Max Planck Institue for Meteorology, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie Bundesstrasse 53 20146 Hamburg, https://pure.mpg.de/view/item_994981_7 (last access: 5 March 2026), 2005. a
Roullier, F., Berline, L., Guidi, L., Durrieu De Madron, X., Picheral, M., Sciandra, A., Pesant, S., and Stemmann, L.: Particle size distribution and estimated carbon flux across the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone, Biogeosciences, 11, 4541–4557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4541-2014, 2014. a
Sanders, R., Morris, P. J., Poulton, A. J., Stinchcombe, M. C., Charalampopoulou, A., Lucas, M. I., and Thomalla, S. J.: Does a ballast effect occur in the surface ocean?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L08602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042574, 2010. a
Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Boyle, J. S., Gaffen, D. J., Hnilo, J. J., Nychka, D., Parker, D. E., and Taylor, K. E.: Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 7337–7356, 2000. a
Schmidtko, S., Stramma, L., and Visbeck, M.: Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades, Nature, 542, 335–339, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21399, 2017. a
Schwinger, J., Goris, N., Tjiputra, J. F., Kriest, I., Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Ilicak, M., Assmann, K. M., and Heinze, C.: Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589–2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2589-2016, 2016. a
Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Årthun, M., Wang, S., Song, Z., Zhang, M., and Qiao, F.: Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models, Sci. Adv., 8, eabn9755, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn9755, 2022. a
Song, Y., Burd, A. B., and Rau, M. J.: The deformation of marine snow enables its disaggregation in simulated oceanic shear, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 1224518, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1224518, 2023. a, b
Spencer, K. L., Wheatland, J. A., Bushby, A. J., Carr, S. J., Droppo, I. G., and Manning, A.: A structure-function based approach to floc hierachy and evidence for the non-fractal nature of natural sediment flocs, Sci. Rep., 11, 14012, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93302-9, 2021. a
Stemmann, L., Jackson, G. A., and Gorsky, G.: A vertical model of particle size distributions and fluxes in the midwater column that includes biological and physical processes – Part II: application to a three year survey in the NW Mediterranean Sea, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 51, 885–908, 2004a. a
Stemmann, L., Jackson, G. A., and Ianson, D.: A vertical model of particle size distributions and fluxes in the midwater column that includes biological and physical processes – Part I: model formulation, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 51, 865–884, 2004b. a
Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., Fan, S., Ginoux, P., John, J., Krasting, J. P., Laufkötter, C., Paulot, F., and Zadeh, N.: Ocean biogeochemistry in the GFDL's Earth system model 4.1 and its response to increasing atmospheric CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., e2019MS002043, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002043, 2020. a
Sulpis, O., Trossmann, D. S., Holzer, M., Jeansson, E., Lauvset, S. K., and Middelburg, J. J.: Respiration patterns in the dark ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 37, e2023GB007747, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007747, 2023. a
Takeuchi, M., Doubell, M. J., Jackson, G. A., Yukawa, M., Sagara, Y., and Yamazaki, H.: Turbulence mediates marine aggregate formation and destruction in the upper ocean, Sci. Rep., 9, 16280, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52470-5, 2019. a
Taucher, J., Bach, L. T., Riebesell, U., and Oschlies, A.: The viscosity effect on marine particle flux: A climate relevant feedback mechanism, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 28, 415–422, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004728, 2014. a, b
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183–7192, 2001. a
Thyng, K. M., Greene, C. A., Hetland, R. D., Zimmerle, H. M., and DiMarco, S. F.: True colors of oceanography: Guidelines for effective and accurate colormap selection, Oceanography, 29, 9–13, 2016. a
Trudnowska, E., Lacour, L., Ardyna, M., Rogge, A., Irisson, J. O., Waite, A. M., Babin, M., and Stemmann, L.: Marine snow morphology illuminates the evolution of phytoplankton blooms and determines their subsequent vertical export, Nat. Commun., 12, 2816, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22994-4, 2021. a
Visser, A. W.: Sequestration by the biological carbon pump: Do we really know what we are talking about?, Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett., 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70053, 2025. a
Wang, Z., Hu, S., LI, Q., Liu, H., and Wu, G.: Variability of Marine Particle Size Distributions and the Correlations with Inherent Optical Properties in the Coastal Waters of the Northern South China Sea, Remote Sensing, 14, 2881, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14122881, 2022. a
Weber, T. and Bianchi, D.: Efficient particle transfer to depth in oxygen minimum zones of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Front. Earth Sci., 8, 376, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00376, 2020. a, b
Wilson, J. D., Andrews, O., Katavouta, A., de Melo Viríssimo, F., Death, R. M., Adloff, M., Baker, C. A., Blackledge, B., Goldsworth, F. W., Kennedy-Asser, A. T., Liu, Q., Sieradzan, K. R., Vosper, E., and Ying, R.: The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2204369119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2204369119, 2022. a
Yamaguchi, R., Kouketsu, S., Kosugi, N., and Ishii, M.: Global upper ocean dissolved oxygen budget for constraining the biological carbon pump, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 732, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01886-7, 2024. a
Zeng, J., Nojiri, Y., Landschützer, P., Telszewski, M., and Nakaoka, S. I.: A global surface ocean fCO2 climatology based on a feed- forward neural network, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 31, 1838–1849, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00137.1, 2014. a
Short summary
CO2 taken up by marine algae can escape ocean surface waters through subsequent particle formation and sinking. Representing this biological carbon pump (BCP) in Earth system models remains challenging and poses uncertainties for future projections. We show that an advanced BCP representation regionally buffers ocean biogeochemistry compared to a classical approach while both respond globally similar to climate warming. Particle microstructure turns out as a key uncertainty for sinking fluxes.
CO2 taken up by marine algae can escape ocean surface waters through subsequent particle...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint