Articles | Volume 23, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6947-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6947-2026
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2026

Towards constraining the drivers of variability and trends in subantarctic productivity

Christopher D. Traill, Tyler W. Rohr, Elizabeth H. Shadwick, Pearse J. Buchanan, Alessandro Tagliabue, and Andrew R. Bowie

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Cited articles

Anugerahanti, P. and Tagliabue, A.: Response of Southern Ocean Resource Stress in a Changing Climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl107870, 2024. 
Auger, M., Morrow, R., Kestenare, E., Sallee, J. B., and Cowley, R.: Southern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability, Nat. Commun., 12, 514, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20781-1, 2021. 
Aumont, O., Ethé, C., Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., and Gehlen, M.: PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015. 
Barrett, P. M., Grun, R., and Ellwood, M. J.: Tracing iron along the flowpath of East Australian Current using iron stable isotopes, Mar. Chem., 237, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2021.104039, 2021. 
Behrenfeld, M. J.: Abandoning Sverdrup's Critical Depth Hypothesis on phytoplankton blooms, Ecology, 91, 977–989, https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1207.1, 2010. 
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Short summary
Southern Ocean phytoplankton are a key part of the carbon cycle, yet year-to-year changes in ocean productivity are poorly understood. Using model simulations, this study shows how deeper mixing in the most productive years increases nutrient supply and changes the predator-prey relationship between phytoplankton and zooplankton. This helps explain why satellite productivity estimates disagree, and the reasons for why climate projections might be getting inaccurate estimates of future production.
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