Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-979-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-979-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
11 Mar 2010
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis
M. Steinacher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
F. Joos
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
T. L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
L. Bopp
Laboratoire du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), L'Orme des Merisiers Bât. 712, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
P. Cadule
Laboratoire du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), L'Orme des Merisiers Bât. 712, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
V. Cocco
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
S. C. Doney
Dept. of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
M. Gehlen
Laboratoire du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), L'Orme des Merisiers Bât. 712, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
K. Lindsay
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
J. K. Moore
Dept. of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
B. Schneider
Institute of Geosciences, University of Kiel, Ludewig-Meyn-Str. 10, 24098 Kiel, Germany
J. Segschneider
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Biogeosciences, 18, 229–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-229-2021, 2021
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Lags caused by delayed vegetation response to changing environmental conditions can lead to disequilibrium vegetation states. Awareness of this issue is relevant for ecosystem conservation. We used the aDGVM vegetation model to quantify the difference between transient and equilibrium vegetation states in Africa during the 21st century for two potential climate trajectories. Lag times increased over time and vegetation was non-analog to any equilibrium state due to multi-lag composite states.
Tony W. Carr, Juraj Balkovič, Paul E. Dodds, Christian Folberth, Emil Fulajtar, and Rastislav Skalsky
Biogeosciences, 17, 5263–5283, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5263-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5263-2020, 2020
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Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Georgii A. Alexandrov, Victor A. Brovkin, Thomas Kleinen, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 17, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, 2020
Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Guang Zeng, Fabiano Ximenes, Donna L. Giltrap, and John R. Zeldis
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Globally, C is added to the atmosphere from fossil fuels and deforestation, balanced by ocean uptake and atmospheric increase. The difference (residual sink) is equated to plant uptake. But this omits cement carbonation; transport to oceans by dust; riverine organic C and volatile organics; and increased C in plastic, bitumen, wood, landfills, and lakes. Their inclusion reduces the residual sink from 3.6 to 2.1 GtC yr-1 and thus the inferred ability of the biosphere to alter human C emissions.
Kerstin Kretschmer, Lukas Jonkers, Michal Kucera, and Michael Schulz
Biogeosciences, 15, 4405–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4405-2018, 2018
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Titta Majasalmi, Stephanie Eisner, Rasmus Astrup, Jonas Fridman, and Ryan M. Bright
Biogeosciences, 15, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-399-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-399-2018, 2018
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Forest management shapes forest structure and in turn surface–atmosphere interactions. We used Fennoscandian forest maps and inventory data to develop a classification system for forest structure. The classification was integrated with the ESA Climate Change Initiative land cover map to achieve complete surface representation. The result is an improved product for modeling surface–atmosphere exchanges in regions with intensively managed forests.
Anna T. Trugman, David Medvigy, William A. Hoffmann, and Adam F. A. Pellegrini
Biogeosciences, 15, 233–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-233-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-233-2018, 2018
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Tree fire tolerance strategies may significantly impact woody carbon stability and the existence of tropical savannas under global climate change. We used a numerical ecosystem model to test the impacts of fire survival strategy under differing fire and rainfall regimes. We found that the high survival rate of large fire-tolerant trees reduced carbon losses with increasing fire frequency, and reduced the range of conditions leading to either complete tree loss or complete grass loss.
Nitin Chaudhary, Paul A. Miller, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 14, 4023–4044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4023-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4023-2017, 2017
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We employed an individual- and patch-based dynamic global ecosystem model to quantify long-term C accumulation rates and to assess the effects of historical and projected climate change on peatland C balances across the pan-Arctic. We found that peatlands in Scandinavia, Europe, Russia and central and eastern Canada will become C sources, while Siberia, far eastern Russia, Alaska and western and northern Canada will increase their sink capacity by the end of the 21st century.
Giovanni De Falco, Emanuela Molinaroli, Alessandro Conforti, Simone Simeone, and Renato Tonielli
Biogeosciences, 14, 3191–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3191-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3191-2017, 2017
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This study quantifies the contribution of carbonate sediments, produced in seagrass meadows and in photophilic algal communities, to the sediment budget of a beach–dune system. The contribution to the beach sediment budget represents a further ecosystem service provided by seagrass. The dependence of the beach sediment budget on carbonate production associated with coastal ecosystems has implications for the adaptation of carbonate beaches to the seagrass decline and sea level rise.
Nitin Chaudhary, Paul A. Miller, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 14, 2571–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2571-2017, 2017
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We incorporated peatland dynamics into
Arcticversion of dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to understand the long-term evolution of northern peatlands and effects of climate change on peatland carbon balance. We found that the Stordalen mire may be expected to sequester more carbon before 2050 due to milder and wetter climate conditions, a longer growing season and CO2 fertilization effect, turning into a C source after 2050 because of higher decomposition rates in response to warming soils.
Maria Stergiadi, Marcel van der Perk, Ton C. M. de Nijs, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Biogeosciences, 13, 1519–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1519-2016, 2016
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We modelled the effects of changes in climate and land management on soil organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) levels in sandy and loamy soils under forest, grassland, and arable land. Climate change causes a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC slightly increases. A reduction in fertilizer application leads to a decrease in SOC and DOC levels under arable land but has a negligible effect under grassland.
S. S. Rabin, B. I. Magi, E. Shevliakova, and S. W. Pacala
Biogeosciences, 12, 6591–6604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6591-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6591-2015, 2015
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People worldwide use fire to manage agriculture, but often also suppress fire in the landscape surrounding their fields. Here, we estimate the net result of these effects of cropland and pasture on fire at a regional, monthly level. Pasture is shown, for the first time, to contribute strongly to global patterns of burning. Our results could be used to improve representations of burning in global vegetation and climate models, improving our understanding of how people affect the Earth system.
Y. Le Page, D. Morton, B. Bond-Lamberty, J. M. C. Pereira, and G. Hurtt
Biogeosciences, 12, 887–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-887-2015, 2015
W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, A. Arneth, and U. Weber
Biogeosciences, 11, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
R. Fuchs, M. Herold, P. H. Verburg, and J. G. P. W. Clevers
Biogeosciences, 10, 1543–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1543-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1543-2013, 2013
P. W. Keys, R. J. van der Ent, L. J. Gordon, H. Hoff, R. Nikoli, and H. H. G. Savenije
Biogeosciences, 9, 733–746, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-733-2012, 2012
V. Kovalskyy and G. M. Henebry
Biogeosciences, 9, 141–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-141-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-141-2012, 2012
V. Kovalskyy and G. M. Henebry
Biogeosciences, 9, 161–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-161-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-161-2012, 2012
A. Dallmeyer and M. Claussen
Biogeosciences, 8, 1499–1519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-1499-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-1499-2011, 2011
B. D. Stocker, K. Strassmann, and F. Joos
Biogeosciences, 8, 69–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-69-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-69-2011, 2011
A. Oschlies, W. Koeve, W. Rickels, and K. Rehdanz
Biogeosciences, 7, 4017–4035, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-4017-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-4017-2010, 2010
S. Bathiany, M. Claussen, V. Brovkin, T. Raddatz, and V. Gayler
Biogeosciences, 7, 1383–1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1383-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1383-2010, 2010
A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 6, 1603–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-1603-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-1603-2009, 2009
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