Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas

Ribeiro, Andreia Filipa Silva; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia Marina; Páscoa, Patrícia; Zscheischler, Jakob

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020

Articles | Volume 17, issue 19

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Understanding compound weather and climate events and related...

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 19

Research article

|

09 Oct 2020

Research article |

| 09 Oct 2020

Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas

Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia Marina Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Jakob Zscheischler

Data sets

Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset I. Harris, P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and D. H. Lister https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711

Statistical Yearbook Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food https://www.mapa.gob.es/es/estadistica/temas/publicaciones/anuario-de-estadistica/

CORINE Land Cover (CLC) inventory CGLS (Copernicus Global Land service) https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover

Model code and software

Modeling Multivariate Distributions with Continuous Margins Using the copula R Package I. Kojadinovic and J. Yan https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v034.i09

Hierarchical archimedean copulae: The HAC package O. Okhrin and A. Ristig https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v058.i04

Rcode for risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas, IMPECAF A. F. S. Ribeiro, A. Russo, C. M. Gouveia, P. Páscoa, and J. Zscheischler http://impecaf.rd.ciencias.ulisboa.pt/Rcode_BGpaper.html

Short summary

This study investigates the impacts of compound dry and hot extremes on crop yields, namely wheat and barley, over two regions in Spain dominated by rainfed agriculture. We provide estimates of the conditional probability of crop loss under compound dry and hot conditions, which could be an important tool for responsible authorities to mitigate the impacts magnified by the interactions between the different hazards.