Articles | Volume 17, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020
Research article
 | 
09 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 09 Oct 2020

Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas

Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia Marina Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Jakob Zscheischler

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Cited articles

Balla, K., Rakszegi, M., Li, Z., Bekes, F., Bencze, S., and Veisz, O.: Quality of winter wheat in relation to heat and drought shock after anthesis, Czech J. Food Sci., 29, 117–128, 2011. a
Bastos, A., Gouveia, C. M., Trigo, R. M., and Running, S. W.: Analysing the spatio-temporal impacts of the 2003 and 2010 extreme heatwaves on plant productivity in Europe, Biogeosciences, 11, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, 2014. a
Ben-Ari, T., Adrian, J., Klein, T., Calanca, P., Van der Velde, M., and Makowski, D.: Identifying indicators for extreme wheat and maize yield losses, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 220, 130–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.01.009, 2016. a, b
Bevacqua, E., Maraun, D., Hobæk Haff, I., Widmann, M., and Vrac, M.: Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017. a
Bokusheva, R., Kogan, F., Vitkovskaya, I., Conradt, S., and Batyrbayeva, M.: Satellite-based vegetation health indices as a criteria for insuring against drought-related yield losses, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 220, 200–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.12.066, 2016. a
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This study investigates the impacts of compound dry and hot extremes on crop yields, namely wheat and barley, over two regions in Spain dominated by rainfed agriculture. We provide estimates of the conditional probability of crop loss under compound dry and hot conditions, which could be an important tool for responsible authorities to mitigate the impacts magnified by the interactions between the different hazards.
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