Articles | Volume 15, issue 9
Biogeosciences, 15, 2649–2668, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2649-2018
Biogeosciences, 15, 2649–2668, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2649-2018

Research article 04 May 2018

Research article | 04 May 2018

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay

Isaac D. Irby et al.

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Cited articles

Altieri, A. H. and Gedan, K. B.: Climate change and dead zones, Glob. Change Biol., 21, 1395–1406, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12754 , 2015. 
Bever, A. J., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Friedrichs, C. T., Scully, M. E., and Lanerolle, L. W.: Combining observations and numerical model results to improve estimates of hypoxic volume within the Chesapeake Bay, USA, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 4924–4944, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20331, 2013. 
Breitburg, D.: Effects of hypoxia, and the balance between hypoxia and enrichment, on coastal fishes and fisheries, Estuaries, 25, 767–781, 2002. 
Boesch, D. F., Coles, V. J., Kimmel, D. G., and Miller, W. D.: Coastal Dead Zones & Global Climate Change – Ramifications of Climate Change for Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia, PEW Center on Global Climate Change, 2007. 
Boon, J. D. and Mitchell, M.: Nonlinear Change in Sea Level Observed at North American Tide Stations, J. Coast. Res., 31, 1295–1305, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-15-00041.1, 2015. 
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We use an estuarine-watershed modeling system of the Chesapeake Bay to examine the impact climate change may have on the ability of nutrient reduction regulations to increase dissolved oxygen. We find that climate change will move the onset of hypoxia ~7 days earlier, while also decreasing oxygen in the bay primarily due to increased temperature. While this effect is smaller than the increase in oxygen due to nutrient reduction, it is enough to limit the regulation's future effectiveness.
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