Articles | Volume 12, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2195-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2195-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Apr 2015
Research article |
| 15 Apr 2015
Radiative forcing bias of simulated surface albedo modifications linked to forest cover changes at northern latitudes
Industrial Ecology Program, Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Høgskoleringen 5, E-1, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute, P.O. Box 115, 1431 Ås, Norway
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), P.O. Box 1129, Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway
R. Astrup
Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute, P.O. Box 115, 1431 Ås, Norway
C. Antón-Fernández
Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute, P.O. Box 115, 1431 Ås, Norway
A. H. Strømman
Industrial Ecology Program, Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Høgskoleringen 5, E-1, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
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Xiaoning Xie, Gunnar Myhre, Xiaodong Liu, Xinzhou Li, Zhengguo Shi, Hongli Wang, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Drew Shindell, Toshihiko Takemura, and Yangang Liu
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María A. Burgos, Elisabeth Andrews, Gloria Titos, Angela Benedetti, Huisheng Bian, Virginie Buchard, Gabriele Curci, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Harri Kokkola, Anton Laakso, Julie Letertre-Danczak, Marianne T. Lund, Hitoshi Matsui, Gunnar Myhre, Cynthia Randles, Michael Schulz, Twan van Noije, Kai Zhang, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Urs Baltensperger, Anne Jefferson, James Sherman, Junying Sun, Ernest Weingartner, and Paul Zieger
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Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
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Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Christian W. Mohr, Kari Alterskjær, Yves Balkanski, Nicolas Bellouin, Mian Chin, James Haywood, Øivind Hodnebrog, Stefan Kinne, Guangxing Lin, Marianne T. Lund, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Nick Schutgens, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, and Kai Zhang
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8251–8266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8251-2020, 2020
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Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
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Marianne T. Lund, Gunnar Myhre, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13827–13839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric aerosols play an integral role in shaping local and global climate by modifying the energy balance, clouds and precipitation. They are also a leading cause of premature mortality in many areas. New scenarios provide projections of emissions until 2100 given strong, medium or weak air pollution control stringency. We quantify the consequent regional and global aerosol loading and radiative forcing, showing a large spread at the end of the century and regional differences in trends.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Ryan M. Bright and Thomas L. O'Halloran
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To determine the effects of land cover change on climate, researchers must be able to quantify the net change in energy (radiation) at the top of the atmosphere caused by changes in surface reflectance (albedo). Historically, this was done with sophisticated models that require detailed input datasets only available to specialists. Here we combine existing remotely sensed datasets and a new formulation to create a new model that is accurate, transparent, and easy to use.
Titta Majasalmi and Ryan M. Bright
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3923–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3923-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3923-2019, 2019
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Many land surface models rely on solutions derived from two-stream approximations utilizing leaf-level optical properties, many of which have not been formally reviewed or published. Using plant functional type groupings of the Community Land Model (CLM), we found large deviations between measured and CLM default near-infrared optical properties, implying that the modeled shortwave radiation budget including surface albedo may be expected to change after updating the biased parameters.
Marianne Tronstad Lund, Gunnar Myhre, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Jan Griesfeller, Stephen Matthew Platt, Rajesh Kumar, Cathrine Lund Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4909–4931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4909-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in the climate system, but their exact impact on the energy balance remains uncertain. Accurate representation of the geographical distribution and properties of aerosols in global models is key to reduce this uncertainty. Here we use a new emission inventory and a range of observations to carefully validate a state-of-the-art model and present an updated estimate of the net direct effect of anthropogenic aerosols since the preindustrial era.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
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Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
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Titta Majasalmi, Stephanie Eisner, Rasmus Astrup, Jonas Fridman, and Ryan M. Bright
Biogeosciences, 15, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-399-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-399-2018, 2018
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Forest management shapes forest structure and in turn surface–atmosphere interactions. We used Fennoscandian forest maps and inventory data to develop a classification system for forest structure. The classification was integrated with the ESA Climate Change Initiative land cover map to achieve complete surface representation. The result is an improved product for modeling surface–atmosphere exchanges in regions with intensively managed forests.
Sunil Vadakkepuliyambatta, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Gunnar Myhre, Stig B. Dalsøren, Anna Silyakova, Norbert Schmidbauer, Cathrine Lund Myhre, and Jürgen Mienert
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-110, 2017
Preprint retracted
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Release of methane, one of the major greenhouse gases, from melting hydrates has been proposed as a mechanism that accelerated global warming in the past. We focus on Arctic Ocean warming as a robust case study for accelerated melting of hydrates, assessing the impact of Arctic methane release on global air temperatures during the next century. Contrary to popular belief, it is shown that methane emissions from melting hydrates from the Arctic seafloor is not a major driver of global warming.
Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, Susanne E. Bauer, Marianne T. Lund, Vlassis A. Karydis, Tom L. Kucsera, Xiaohua Pan, Andrea Pozzer, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephen D. Steenrod, Kengo Sudo, Kostas Tsigaridis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, and Svetlana G. Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12911–12940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12911-2017, 2017
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Atmospheric nitrate contributes notably to total aerosol mass in the present day and is likely to be more important over the next century, with a projected decline in SO2 and NOx emissions and increase in NH3 emissions. This paper investigates atmospheric nitrate using multiple global models and measurements. The study is part of the AeroCom phase III activity. The study is the first attempt to look at global atmospheric nitrate simulation at physical and chemical process levels.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Yves Balkanski, Susanne Bauer, Nicolas Bellouin, Terje K. Berntsen, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Richard Easter, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Guangxing Lin, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Gunnar Myhre, Twan van Noije, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Fangqun Yu, Kai Zhang, and Hua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12197–12218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017, 2017
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The role of aerosols in the changing polar climate is not well understood and the aerosols are poorly constrained in the models. In this study we have compared output from 16 different aerosol models with available observations at both poles. We show that the model median is representative of the observations, but the model spread is large. The Arctic direct aerosol radiative effect over the industrial area is positive during spring due to black carbon and negative during summer due to sulfate.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Nicolas Bellouin, Laura Baker, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, Ribu Cherian, Claire Macintosh, Bjørn Samset, Anna Esteve, Borgar Aamaas, Johannes Quaas, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13885–13910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016, 2016
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This study uses global climate models to quantify how strongly man-made emissions of selected pollutants modify the energy budget of the Earth. The pollutants studied interact directly and indirectly with sunlight and terrestrial radiation and remain a relatively short time in the atmosphere, leading to regional and seasonal variations in their impacts. This new data set is useful to compare the potential climate impacts of different pollutants in support of policies to reduce climate change.
Camilla Weum Stjern, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Daven Henze, Jan Eiof Jonson, Tom Kucsera, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Michael Schulz, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13579–13599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, 2016
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Air pollution can reach distant regions through intercontinental transport. Here we first present results from the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 exercise, where many models performed the same set of coordinated emission-reduction experiments. We find that mitigations have considerable extra-regional effects, and show that this is particularly true for black carbon emissions, as long-range transport elevates aerosols to higher levels where their radiative influence is stronger.
B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, K. S. Law, N. Daskalakis, G. Ancellet, C. Clerbaux, S.-W. Kim, M. T. Lund, G. Myhre, D. J. L. Olivié, S. Safieddine, R. B. Skeie, J. L. Thomas, S. Tsyro, A. Bazureau, N. Bellouin, M. Hu, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, S. Myriokefalitakis, J. Quaas, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. Cherian, A. Shimizu, J. Wang, S.-C. Yoon, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10765–10792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016, 2016
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This paper evaluates the ability of six global models and one regional model in reproducing short-lived pollutants (defined here as ozone and its precursors, aerosols and black carbon) concentrations over Asia using satellite, ground-based and airborne observations.
Key findings are that models homogeneously reproduce the trace gas observations although nitrous oxides are underestimated, whereas the aerosol distributions are heterogeneously reproduced, implicating important uncertainties.
Stig B. Dalsøren, Cathrine L. Myhre, Gunnar Myhre, Angel J. Gomez-Pelaez, Ole A. Søvde, Ivar S. A. Isaksen, Ray F. Weiss, and Christina M. Harth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3099–3126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3099-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3099-2016, 2016
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Methane is a key greenhouse gas. Observations at surface sites show a more than 10 % increase over the period 1984–2012. Using an atmospheric model we calculate a growth in the atmospheric chemical methane loss the last decades. Without this, the rise in atmospheric methane would have been even higher. The model reproduces trends and short-term variations in observation data. However, some discrepancies in model performance question the accuracy in estimates of emission increases in Asia.
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
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We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
G. Myhre and B. H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2883–2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2883-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2883-2015, 2015
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Radiative forcing (RF) of black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere is estimated using radiative transfer codes of various complexities. Here we show that the two-stream radiative transfer codes used most in climate models give overly strong forward scattering, leading to enhanced absorption at the surface and overly weak absorption by BC. Such calculations are found to underestimate RF in all sky conditions by 10% for global mean, relative to the more sophisticated multi-stream model.
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, A. Herber, Y. Kondo, S.-M. Li, N. Moteki, M. Koike, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12465–12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014, 2014
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Far from black carbon (BC) emission sources, present climate models are unable to reproduce flight measurements. By comparing recent models with data, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in models. By adjusting modeled BC concentrations to measurements in remote regions - over oceans and at high altitudes - we arrive at a reduced estimate for BC radiative forcing over the industrial era.
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, 2014
J. Huttunen, A. Arola, G. Myhre, A. V. Lindfors, T. Mielonen, S. Mikkonen, J. S. Schafer, S. N. Tripathi, M. Wild, M. Komppula, and K. E. J. Lehtinen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6103–6110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6103-2014, 2014
R. B. Skeie, T. Berntsen, M. Aldrin, M. Holden, and G. Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 139–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-139-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-139-2014, 2014
R. M. Bright and M. M. Kvalevåg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11169–11174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11169-2013, 2013
A. Arola, T. F. Eck, J. Huttunen, K. E. J. Lehtinen, A. V. Lindfors, G. Myhre, A. Smirnov, S. N. Tripathi, and H. Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7895–7901, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7895-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7895-2013, 2013
M. S. Eide, S. B. Dalsøren, Ø. Endresen, B. Samset, G. Myhre, J. Fuglestvedt, and T. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4183–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
P. Stier, N. A. J. Schutgens, N. Bellouin, H. Bian, O. Boucher, M. Chin, S. Ghan, N. Huneeus, S. Kinne, G. Lin, X. Ma, G. Myhre, J. E. Penner, C. A. Randles, B. Samset, M. Schulz, T. Takemura, F. Yu, H. Yu, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3245–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, 2013
D. T. Shindell, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013
C. A. Randles, S. Kinne, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, P. Stier, J. Fischer, L. Doppler, E. Highwood, C. Ryder, B. Harris, J. Huttunen, Y. Ma, R. T. Pinker, B. Mayer, D. Neubauer, R. Hitzenberger, L. Oreopoulos, D. Lee, G. Pitari, G. Di Genova, J. Quaas, F. G. Rose, S. Kato, S. T. Rumbold, I. Vardavas, N. Hatzianastassiou, C. Matsoukas, H. Yu, F. Zhang, H. Zhang, and P. Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2347–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2347-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2347-2013, 2013
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2423–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013, 2013
S. B. Dalsøren, B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, J. J. Corbett, R. Minjares, D. Lack, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1941–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, 2013
G. Myhre, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, J. Feichter, S. J. Ghan, D. Hauglustaine, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, M. T. Lund, G. Luo, X. Ma, T. van Noije, J. E. Penner, P. J. Rasch, A. Ruiz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, P. Wang, Z. Wang, L. Xu, H. Yu, F. Yu, J.-H. Yoon, K. Zhang, H. Zhang, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1853–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, 2013
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, O. A. Søvde, and G. Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 285–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, 2013
Ø. Hodnebrog, T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, M. J. Prather, F. Stordal, S. Szopa, Q. Tang, P. van Velthoven, and J. E. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12211–12225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, 2012
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Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
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Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
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Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
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Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
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Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
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Tolerance of tropical marine microphytobenthos exposed to elevated irradiance and temperature
Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe
Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century
Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2
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Cushion bog plant community responses to passive warming in southern Patagonia
Blue carbon stocks and exchanges along the California coast
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Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model
Does drought advance the onset of autumn leaf senescence in temperate deciduous forest trees?
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Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
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This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
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Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
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Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
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We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
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A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
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Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
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Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-506, 2023
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We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions, using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
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CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
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Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
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Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
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This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
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The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
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Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
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Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
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The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
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Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
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The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
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To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
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Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Charly A. Moras, Lennart T. Bach, Tyler Cyronak, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai G. Schulz
Biogeosciences, 19, 3537–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, 2022
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This research presents the first laboratory results of quick and hydrated lime dissolution in natural seawater. These two minerals are of great interest for ocean alkalinity enhancement, a strategy aiming to decrease atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Following the dissolution of these minerals, we identified several hurdles and presented ways to avoid them or completely negate them. Finally, we proceeded to various simulations in today’s oceans to implement the strategy at its highest potential.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
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Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-579, 2022
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Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton variance using an Earth System Model ensemble, identifying a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
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In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
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To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil David Hartstein, Aazani Mujahid, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 3131–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, 2022
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Deep coastal inlets are important sites for regulating land-based organic pollution before it enters coastal oceans. This study focused on how large climate forces, rainfall, and river flow impact organic loading and oxygen conditions in a coastal inlet in Tasmania. Increases in rainfall were linked to higher organic loading and lower oxygen in basin waters. Finally we observed a significant correlation between the Southern Annular Mode and oxygen concentrations in the system's basin waters.
Guang Gao, Tifeng Wang, Jiazhen Sun, Xin Zhao, Lifang Wang, Xianghui Guo, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 19, 2795–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, 2022
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After conducting large-scale deck-incubation experiments, we found that seawater acidification (SA) increased primary production (PP) in coastal waters but reduced it in pelagic zones, which is mainly regulated by local pH, light intensity, salinity, and community structure. In future oceans, SA combined with decreased upward transports of nutrients may synergistically reduce PP in pelagic zones.
Joko Sampurno, Valentin Vallaeys, Randy Ardianto, and Emmanuel Hanert
Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022
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This study is the first assessment to evaluate the interactions between river discharges, tides, and storm surges and how they can drive compound flooding in the Kapuas River delta. We successfully created a realistic hydrodynamic model whose domain covers the land–sea continuum using a wetting–drying algorithm in a data-scarce environment. We then proposed a new method to delineate compound flooding hazard zones along the river channels based on the maximum water level profiles.
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
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Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
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The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
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Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
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We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Alex R. Quijada-Rodriguez, Pou-Long Kuan, Po-Hsuan Sung, Mao-Ting Hsu, Garett J. P. Allen, Pung Pung Hwang, Yung-Che Tseng, and Dirk Weihrauch
Biogeosciences, 18, 6287–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, 2021
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Anthropogenic CO2 is chronically acidifying aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to determine the impact of future freshwater acidification on the physiology and behaviour of an important aquaculture crustacean, Chinese mitten crabs. We report that elevated freshwater CO2 levels lead to impairment of calcification, locomotor behaviour, and survival and reduced metabolism in this species. Results suggest that present-day calcifying invertebrates could be heavily affected by freshwater acidification.
Junrong Zha and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 18, 6245–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, 2021
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This study incorporated moss into an extant biogeochemistry model to simulate the role of moss in carbon dynamics in the Arctic. The interactions between higher plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients are considered in our study. We found that, compared with the previous model without moss, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last century and this century.
Maria Belke-Brea, Florent Domine, Ghislain Picard, Mathieu Barrere, and Laurent Arnaud
Biogeosciences, 18, 5851–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, 2021
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Expanding shrubs in the Arctic change snowpacks into a mix of snow, impurities and buried branches. Snow is a translucent medium into which light penetrates and gets partly absorbed by branches or impurities. Measurements of light attenuation in snow in Northern Quebec, Canada, showed (1) black-carbon-dominated light attenuation in snowpacks without shrubs and (2) buried branches influence radiation attenuation in snow locally, leading to melting and pockets of large crystals close to branches.
Sazlina Salleh and Andrew McMinn
Biogeosciences, 18, 5313–5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, 2021
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The benthic diatom communities in Tanjung Rhu, Malaysia, were regularly exposed to high light and temperature variability during the tidal cycle, resulting in low photosynthetic efficiency. We examined the impact of high temperatures on diatoms' photosynthetic capacities, and temperatures beyond 50 °C caused severe photoinhibition. At the same time, those diatoms exposed to temperatures of 40 °C did not show any sign of photoinhibition.
Cornelius Senf and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 18, 5223–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, 2021
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Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018. We show that this drought has increased forest disturbances across Europe, especially central and eastern Europe. Disturbance levels observed 2018–2020 were the highest on record for 30 years. Increased forest disturbances were correlated with low moisture and high atmospheric water demand. The unprecedented impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbances demonstrate an urgent need to adapt Europe’s forests to a hotter and drier future.
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
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Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Vincent Niderkorn, Annette Morvan-Bertrand, Aline Le Morvan, Angela Augusti, Marie-Laure Decau, and Catherine Picon-Cochard
Biogeosciences, 18, 4841–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, 2021
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Climate change can change vegetation characteristics in grasslands with a potential impact on forage chemical composition and quality, as well as its use by ruminants. Using controlled conditions mimicking a future climatic scenario, we show that forage quality and ruminant digestion are affected in opposite ways by elevated atmospheric CO2 and an extreme event (heat wave, severe drought), indicating that different factors of climate change have to be considered together.
Verónica Pancotto, David Holl, Julio Escobar, María Florencia Castagnani, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 18, 4817–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, 2021
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We investigated the response of a wetland plant community to elevated temperature conditions in a cushion bog on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. We measured carbon dioxide fluxes at experimentally warmed plots and at control plots. Warmed plant communities sequestered between 55 % and 85 % less carbon dioxide than untreated control cushions over the main growing season. Our results suggest that even moderate future warming could decrease the carbon sink function of austral cushion bogs.
Melissa A. Ward, Tessa M. Hill, Chelsey Souza, Tessa Filipczyk, Aurora M. Ricart, Sarah Merolla, Lena R. Capece, Brady C O'Donnell, Kristen Elsmore, Walter C. Oechel, and Kathryn M. Beheshti
Biogeosciences, 18, 4717–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, 2021
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Salt marshes and seagrass meadows ("blue carbon" habitats) can sequester and store high levels of organic carbon (OC), helping to mitigate climate change. In California blue carbon sediments, we quantified OC storage and exchange between these habitats. We find that (1) these salt marshes store about twice as much OC as seagrass meadows do and (2), while OC from seagrass meadows is deposited into neighboring salt marshes, little of this material is sequestered as "long-term" carbon.
Damien Couespel, Marina Lévy, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 18, 4321–4349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, 2021
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An alarming consequence of climate change is the oceanic primary production decline projected by Earth system models. These coarse-resolution models parameterize oceanic eddies. Here, idealized simulations of global warming with increasing resolution show that the decline in primary production in the eddy-resolved simulations is half as large as in the eddy-parameterized simulations. This stems from the high sensitivity of the subsurface nutrient transport to model resolution.
Wu Ma, Lu Zhai, Alexandria Pivovaroff, Jacquelyn Shuman, Polly Buotte, Junyan Ding, Bradley Christoffersen, Ryan Knox, Max Moritz, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles D. Koven, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 18, 4005–4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, 2021
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We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in live fuel moisture and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
Bertold Mariën, Inge Dox, Hans J. De Boeck, Patrick Willems, Sebastien Leys, Dimitri Papadimitriou, and Matteo Campioli
Biogeosciences, 18, 3309–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, 2021
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The drivers of the onset of autumn leaf senescence for several deciduous tree species are still unclear. Therefore, we addressed (i) if drought impacts the timing of autumn leaf senescence and (ii) if the relationship between drought and autumn leaf senescence depends on the tree species. Our study suggests that the timing of autumn leaf senescence is conservative across years and species and even independent of drought stress.
Anna Katavouta and Richard G. Williams
Biogeosciences, 18, 3189–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, 2021
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Diagnostics of the latest-generation Earth system models reveal the ocean will continue to absorb a large fraction of the anthropogenic carbon released to the atmosphere in the next century, with the Atlantic Ocean storing a large amount of this carbon relative to its size. The ability of the ocean to absorb carbon will reduce in the future as the ocean warms and acidifies. This reduction is larger in the Atlantic Ocean due to a weakening of the meridional overturning with changes in climate.
Genevieve Jay Brett, Daniel B. Whitt, Matthew C. Long, Frank Bryan, Kate Feloy, and Kelvin J. Richards
Biogeosciences, 18, 3123–3145, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3123-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3123-2021, 2021
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We quantify one form of uncertainty in modeled 21st-century changes in phytoplankton growth. The supply of nutrients from deep to surface waters decreases in the warmer future ocean, but the effect on phytoplankton growth also depends on changes in available light, how much light and nutrient the plankton need, and how fast they can grow. These phytoplankton properties can be summarized as a biological timescale: when it is short, future growth decreases twice as much as when it is long.
Sean M. Ridge and Galen A. McKinley
Biogeosciences, 18, 2711–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021, 2021
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Approximately 40 % of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have been absorbed by the ocean. The goal of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement is to reduce humanity's emissions so as to limit global warming to no more than 2 °C, and ideally less than 1.5 °C. If we achieve this level of mitigation, the ocean's uptake of carbon will be strongly reduced. Excess carbon trapped in the near-surface ocean will begin to mix back to the surface and will limit additional uptake.
Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, and Simon L. Lewis
Biogeosciences, 18, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, 2021
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Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.
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