Articles | Volume 14, issue 21
Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 03 Nov 2017
Research article | 03 Nov 2017
Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators
Andreas Krause et al.
Related authors
Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ricardo E. Gonzalez, Maya Gueguen, Carlos Guerra, Mike Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Ines S. Martins, Tetsuya Matsui, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Richard Sharp, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, and Henrique M. Pereira
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories on ecosystem recovery in a range of environmental conditions. We found that recovery trajectories are crucially influenced by type and duration of former agricultural land use, especially for soil carbon. Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity to land-use history in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands. These results are relevant for measurements, climate modeling and afforestation projects.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Abhijeet Mishra, Florian Humpenöder, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Brent Sohngen, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-76, 2021
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Timber plantations are an increasingly important source for roundwood production, next to harvest from natural forests. However, so far timber plantations are underrepresented in global land-use models. Here, we include timber production and plantations in the MAgPIE modeling framework. This allows to capture the competition for land between agriculture and forestry. We show that increasing timber plantations in the coming decades partly compete with cropland for limited land resources.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-19, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. In 2018 and 2019, central Europe was stricken by two consecutive extreme dry and hot summers, which provide two case-studies to understand how such consecutive events impact European ecosystems.
Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
Bruno Ringeval, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, Philippe Debaeke, and Sylvain Pellerin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1639–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how and why global gridded crop models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield. We build a GCCM emulator based on generic formalism and fit its parameters against aboveground biomass and yield at harvest simulated by eight GGCMs. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that the calibration of a few key parameters allows the emulator to reproduce the GGCM simulations. Our simple but mechanistic model could help to improve the global simulation of potential yield.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-37, 2021
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters are emerging, especially in the last two decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergmann, Raffaele Bernadello, Souhail Bousetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, Francois Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O’Donnell, Pirrka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-446, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-446, 2021
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behaviour and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Kristine Karstens, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Marta Dondini, Jens Heinke, Matthias Kuhnert, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Pete Smith, Isabelle Weindl, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-468, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-468, 2020
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Soil organic carbon (SOC) has been depleted by anthropogenic land cover change and agricultural management. While SOC models often simulate detailed biochemical processes, the management decisions are still little investigated at the global scale. We estimate that soils have lost around 26 GtC relative to a counterfactual natural state in 1975. Yet, since 1975, SOC has been increasing again by 4 GtC due to a higher productivity, recycling of crop residues and manure and no tillage practices.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Halima Usman, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anders Ahlström, and Sofia Baig
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-84, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
The study assesses the impacts of climate change on forest productivity in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. LPJ-GUESS was simulated from 1850–2100. In first approach, the model was compared with observational estimates. The comparison showed a moderate to weak agreement. In the second approach, the model was assessed for the temporal and spatial trends of net biome productivity and carbon pool. A reduction was found from 1951–2005 however, increase in both variables were predicted in 2100.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Abigail Snyder, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Karina Williams, Ziwei Wang, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yields will be critical for global food security in the next century. The models often used to study the how climate change may impact agriculture are complex and costly to run. In this work, we describe a set of global crop model emulators (simplified models) developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. Crop model emulators make agricultural simulations more accessible to policy or decision makers.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Lei Ma, George C. Hurtt, Louise P. Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Julia Pongratz, Steve Frolking, Elke Stehfest, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Donal O'Leary, and Jonathan C. Doelman
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3203–3220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models require information on historical land cover change. We present transition rules to generate land cover change from newly developed land use dataset (Land-use Harmonization, LUH2). The resulting forest cover, vegetation carbon, and emissions from land use and land cover change are simulated and evaluated against remote sensing data and other studies. The rules can guide the incorporation of land-cover information within earth system models for CMIP6.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Sam S. Rabin, Peter Alexander, Roslyn Henry, Peter Anthoni, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Mark Rounsevell, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and population growth, and how the resulting adaptations will affect aspects of the Earth system upon which humanity depends. We found that the impacts of land use and management can have stronger impacts than climate change on some such
ecosystem services. The overall impacts are strongest in future scenarios with more severe climate change, high population growth, and/or resource-intensive lifestyles.
Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Kristine Karstens, Alexander Popp, Lena R. Boysen, Pete Smith, and Daniel Goll
Biogeosciences, 17, 2107–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Biomass-based terrestrial negative emission technologies (tNETS) have high potential to sequester CO2. Many CO2 uptake estimates do not include the effect of nutrient deficiencies in soils on biomass production. We show that nutrients can be partly resupplied by enhanced weathering (EW) rock powder application, increasing the effectiveness of tNETs. Depending on the deployed amounts of rock powder, EW could also improve soil hydrology, adding a new dimension to the coupling of tNETs with EW.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Jonathan C. Doelman, Peter Baas, Christoph Müller, Sibyll Schaphoff, Elke Stehfest, and Detlef P. van Vuuren
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 617–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a computer model that simulates forests plantations at global scale and how fast such forests can take up CO2 from the atmosphere. Using this new model, we performed simulations for a scenario in which a large fraction (14 %) of global croplands and pastures are either converted to planted forests or natural forests. We find that planted forests take up CO2 substantially faster than natural forests and are therefore a viable strategy for reducing climate change.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Matthew J. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maarten van den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jérôme Hilaire, Rachel Hoesly, Jill Horing, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Kiyoshi Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1443–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources for use in CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data to future trajectories. We find that the set of scenarios enables the exploration of a variety of warming pathways. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Florian Humpenöder, Isabelle Weindl, Miodrag Stevanović, Kristine Karstens, Ulrich Kreidenweis, Xiaoxi Wang, Abhijeet Mishra, David Klein, Geanderson Ambrósio, Ewerton Araujo, Amsalu Woldie Yalew, Lavinia Baumstark, Stephen Wirth, Anastasis Giannousakis, Felicitas Beier, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1299–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1299-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1299-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We provides an overview on version 4 of the MAgPIE open-source framework for modeling global land systems. Among others, MAgPIE has been used to simulate marker scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and contributed substantially to multiple IPCC assessments. Its recent version marks the first open-source release of the framework and introduces several new features. Via its modularity and spatial flexibility it can serve as a tool for a broad range of land-related research topics.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Martina Franz, Rocio Alonso, Almut Arneth, Patrick Büker, Susana Elvira, Giacomo Gerosa, Lisa Emberson, Zhaozhong Feng, Didier Le Thiec, Riccardo Marzuoli, Elina Oksanen, Johan Uddling, Matthew Wilkinson, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 15, 6941–6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Four published ozone damage functions previously used in terrestrial biosphere models were evaluated regarding their ability to simulate observed biomass dose–response relationships using the O-CN model. Neither damage function was able to reproduce the observed ozone-induced biomass reductions. Calibrating a plant-functional-type-specific relationship between accumulated ozone uptake and leaf-level photosynthesis did lead to a good agreement between observed and modelled ozone damage.
HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ricardo E. Gonzalez, Maya Gueguen, Carlos Guerra, Mike Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Ines S. Martins, Tetsuya Matsui, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Richard Sharp, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, and Henrique M. Pereira
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Derek T. Robinson, Alan Di Vittorio, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, C. Michael Barton, Daniel G. Brown, Albert Kettner, Carsten Lemmen, Brian C. O'Neill, Marco Janssen, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sam S. Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, James P. Syvitski, Isaac Ullah, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 895–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the complexity behind the rapid use of Earth’s resources requires modelling approaches that couple human and natural systems. We propose a framework that comprises the configuration, frequency of interaction, and coordination of communication between models along with eight lessons as guidelines to increase the success of coupled human–natural systems modelling initiatives. We also suggest a way to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models.
Maite Bauwens, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Lesley De Cruz, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Quentin Laffineur, Crist Amelynck, Niels Schoon, Bernard Heinesch, Thomas Holst, Almut Arneth, Reinhart Ceulemans, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, and Alex Guenther
Biogeosciences, 15, 3673–3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic isoprene fluxes are simulated over Europe with the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model for the recent past and end-of-century climate at high spatiotemporal resolution (0.1°, 3 min). Due to climate change, fluxes increased by 40 % over 1979–2014. Climate scenarios for 2070–2099 suggest an increase by 83 % due to climate, and an even stronger increase when the potential impact of CO2 fertilization is considered (up to 141 %). Accounting for CO2 inhibition cancels out a large part of these increases.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Susanne Rolinski, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, Isabelle Weindl, Anne Biewald, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Alberte Bondeau, Eltje R. Boons-Prins, Alexander F. Bouwman, Peter A. Leffelaar, Johnny A. te Roller, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One-third of the global land area is covered with grasslands which are grazed by or mowed for livestock feed. These areas contribute significantly to the carbon capture from the atmosphere when managed sensibly. To assess the effect of this management, we included different options of grazing and mowing into the global model LPJmL 3.6. We found in polar regions even low grazing pressure leads to soil carbon loss whereas in temperate regions up to 1.4 livestock units per hectare can be sustained.
Brian J. Dermody, Murugesu Sivapalan, Elke Stehfest, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Martin J. Wassen, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Stefan C. Dekker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 103–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-103-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-103-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ensuring sustainable food and water security is an urgent and complex challenge. As the world becomes increasingly globalised and interdependent, food and water management policies may have unintended consequences across regions, sectors and scales. Current decision-making tools do not capture these complexities and thus miss important dynamics. We present a modelling framework to capture regional and sectoral interdependence and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system.
Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, Jonathan Doelman, and Elke Stehfest
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 927–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This is an update of HYDE, which is an internally consistent combination of historical population estimates and time-dependent land use allocation algorithms for 10 000 BCE–2015 CE. Categories include cropland, separated into irrigated and rain-fed rice and non-rice crops. Grazing lands are divided into more intensely used pasture and less intensively used rangelands. Population includes total, urban, and rural population and population density and built-up area.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Margreet J. E. van Marle, Silvia Kloster, Brian I. Magi, Jennifer R. Marlon, Anne-Laure Daniau, Robert D. Field, Almut Arneth, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Chao Yue, Johannes W. Kaiser, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Fire emission estimates are a key input dataset for climate models. We have merged satellite information with proxy datasets and fire models to reconstruct fire emissions since 1750 AD. Our dataset indicates that, on a global scale, fire emissions were relatively constant over time. Since roughly 1950, declining emissions from savannas were approximately balanced by increased emissions from tropical deforestation zones.
Ines Bamberger, Nadine K. Ruehr, Michael Schmitt, Andreas Gast, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 3649–3667, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the effects of summer heatwaves and drought on photosynthesis and isoprene emissions in black locust trees. While photosynthesis decreased, isoprene emission increased sharply during the heatwaves. Comparing isoprene emissions of stressed and unstressed trees at the same temperature, however, demonstrated that stressed trees emitted less isoprene than expected. This reveals that in order to predict isoprene emissions during heat waves, model parameters need to be re-evaluated.
Reinhard Prestele, Almut Arneth, Alberte Bondeau, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Stephen Sitch, Elke Stehfest, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate models. We identify and discuss three major challenges at the interface of land-use and climate modeling and propose ways for how to improve land-use representation in climate models. We conclude that land-use data-provider and user communities need to engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced land-use datasets to improve the quantification of land use–climate interactions and feedback.
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Steven Hoek, Toshichika Iizumi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Deepak K. Ray, Ashwan Reddy, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Gen Sakurai, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalsky, Carol X. Song, Xuhui Wang, Allard de Wit, and Hong Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Crop models are increasingly used in climate change impact research and integrated assessments. For the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have supplied crop yield simulations (1980–2010) for maize, wheat, rice and soybean. We evaluate the performance of these models against observational data at global, national and grid cell level. We propose an open-access benchmark system against which future model versions can be tested.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
Martina Franz, David Simpson, Almut Arneth, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 45–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone is a toxic air pollutant that can damage plant leaves and impact their carbon uptake from the atmosphere. We extend a terrestrial biosphere model to account for ozone damage of plants and investigate the impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Our approach accounts for ozone transport from the free troposphere to leaf level. We find that this substantially affects simulated ozone uptake into the plants. Simulations indicate that ozone damages plants less than expected from previous studies
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 893–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories on ecosystem recovery in a range of environmental conditions. We found that recovery trajectories are crucially influenced by type and duration of former agricultural land use, especially for soil carbon. Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity to land-use history in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands. These results are relevant for measurements, climate modeling and afforestation projects.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Almut Arneth, Risto Makkonen, Stefan Olin, Pauli Paasonen, Thomas Holst, Maija K. Kajos, Markku Kulmala, Trofim Maximov, Paul A. Miller, and Guy Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5243–5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We study the potentially contrasting effects of enhanced ecosystem CO2 release in response to warmer temperatures vs. emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds and their formation of secondary organic aerosol through a combination of measurements and modelling at a remote location in Eastern Siberia. The study aims to highlight the number of potentially opposing processes and complex interactions between vegetation physiology, soil processes and trace-gas exchanges in the climate system.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
W. Knorr, L. Jiang, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 13, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires are the largest contributor to atmospheric pollution from all fires globally, with major consequences for health and air quality. This study examines the main contributing factors governing wildfire emissions during the 20th and 21st centuries using simulations with climate and ecosystem models. Contrary to common perception, climate change is only one of several important factors, but population change, urbanization and changing atmospheric CO2 levels are at least equally important.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
S. Olin, M. Lindeskog, T. A. M. Pugh, G. Schurgers, D. Wårlind, M. Mishurov, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, B. Smith, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being. Properly managed they can supply food, store carbon and even sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Conversely, if poorly managed, croplands can be a source of nitrogen to inland and coastal waters, causing algal blooms, and a source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, accentuating climate change. Here we studied cropland management types for their potential to store carbon and minimize nitrogen losses while maintaining crop yields.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
G. Wohlfahrt, C. Amelynck, C. Ammann, A. Arneth, I. Bamberger, A. H. Goldstein, L. Gu, A. Guenther, A. Hansel, B. Heinesch, T. Holst, L. Hörtnagl, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, A. Neftel, K. McKinney, J. W. Munger, S. G. Pallardy, G. W. Schade, R. Seco, and N. Schoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7413–7427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates. Here we present micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight sites in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis of the terrestrial methanol exchange.
S. Olin, G. Schurgers, M. Lindeskog, D. Wårlind, B. Smith, P. Bodin, J. Holmér, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015
P. Bodin, S. Olin, T. A. M. Pugh, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Food security is defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In regions where food security is highly dependent on local production it is thus of importance to produce not only enough calories but also to minimize variation in yield. This trade-off is investigated here using simulated crop yield and by selecting relative distributions of crops. The results show a large potential to either increase food production or to decrease its variance by applying optimized crop selection.
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
A. Arneth, S. Olin, R. Makkonen, P. Paasonen, T. Holst, M. Kajos, M. Kulmala, T. Maximov, P. A. Miller, and G. Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, A. Arneth, and U. Weber
Biogeosciences, 11, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014
R. Väänänen, E.-M. Kyrö, T. Nieminen, N. Kivekäs, H. Junninen, A. Virkkula, M. Dal Maso, H. Lihavainen, Y. Viisanen, B. Svenningsson, T. Holst, A. Arneth, P. P. Aalto, M. Kulmala, and V.-M. Kerminen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11887–11903, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, 2013
N. Unger, K. Harper, Y. Zheng, N. Y. Kiang, I. Aleinov, A. Arneth, G. Schurgers, C. Amelynck, A. Goldstein, A. Guenther, B. Heinesch, C. N. Hewitt, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, B. Langford, K. A. McKinney, P. Misztal, M. Potosnak, J. Rinne, S. Pressley, N. Schoon, and D. Serça
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10243–10269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, 2013
M. K. Kajos, H. Hakola, T. Holst, T. Nieminen, V. Tarvainen, T. Maximov, T. Petäjä, A. Arneth, and J. Rinne
Biogeosciences, 10, 4705–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function: Terrestrial
A survey of proximal methods for monitoring leaf phenology in temperate deciduous forests
Recent above-ground biomass changes in central Chukotka (Russian Far East) using field sampling and Landsat satellite data
Climate change and elevated CO2 favor forest over savanna under different future scenarios in South Asia
Functional convergence of biosphere–atmosphere interactions in response to meteorological conditions
Multi-scale assessment of a grassland productivity model
Improving the monitoring of deciduous broadleaf phenology using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 16 and 17
Factors controlling the productivity of tropical Andean forests: climate and soil are more important than tree diversity
Drought years in peatland rewetting: rapid vegetation succession can maintain the net CO2 sink function
Shift of seed mass and fruit type spectra along longitudinal gradient: high water availability and growth allometry
Retrieval and validation of forest background reflectivity from daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) data across European forests
Unraveling the physical and physiological basis for the solar- induced chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthesis relationship using continuous leaf and canopy measurements of a corn crop
Machine learning estimates of eddy covariance carbon flux in a scrub in the Mexican highland
Variability of the surface energy balance in permafrost-underlain boreal forest
Vegetation modulates the impact of climate extremes on gross primary production
The motion of trees in the wind: a data synthesis
Landsat near-infrared (NIR) band and ELM-FATES sensitivity to forest disturbances and regrowth in the Central Amazon
Microclimatic conditions and water content fluctuations experienced by epiphytic bryophytes in an Amazonian rain forest
Quantifying the Importance of Antecedent Fuel-Related Vegetation Properties for Burnt Area using Random Forests
Evaluating the potential for Archaea to serve as ice nucleating particles
Plant trait response of tundra shrubs to permafrost thaw and nutrient addition
Soils from cold and snowy temperate deciduous forests release more nitrogen and phosphorus after soil freeze–thaw cycles than soils from warmer, snow-poor conditions
Patterns in recent and Holocene pollen influxes across Europe; the Pollen Monitoring Programme Database as a tool for vegetation reconstruction
Response of carbon and water fluxes to meteorological and phenological variability in two eastern North American forests of similar age but contrasting species composition – a multiyear comparison
Drought resistance increases from the individual to the ecosystem level in highly diverse Neotropical rainforest: a meta-analysis of leaf, tree and ecosystem responses to drought
An analysis of forest biomass sampling strategies across scales
Variable tree rooting strategies improve tropical productivity and evapotranspiration in a dynamic global vegetation model
Comparing stability in random forest models to map Northern Great Plains plant communities in pastures occupied by prairie dogs using Pleiades imagery
African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions
Validation of demographic equilibrium theory against tree-size distributions and biomass density in Amazonia
Soil carbon release responses to long-term versus short-term climatic warming in an arid ecosystem
Partitioning of canopy and soil CO2 fluxes in a pine forest at the dry timberline across a 13-year observation period
N : P stoichiometry and habitat effects on Mediterranean savanna seasonal root dynamics
Quantifying energy use efficiency via entropy production: a case study from longleaf pine ecosystems
Rapid response of habitat structure and above-ground carbon storage to altered fire regimes in tropical savanna
Dissolved organic matter characteristics of deciduous and coniferous forests with variable management: different at the source, aligned in the soil
Drought reduces tree growing season length but increases nitrogen resorption efficiency in a Mediterranean ecosystem
Varying relationships between fire radiative power and fire size at a global scale
Ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 using airborne remote sensing at Mammoth Mountain, California
Ideas and perspectives: Tree–atmosphere interaction responds to water-related stem variations
Life cycle of bamboo in the southwestern Amazon and its relation to fire events
Contrasting biosphere responses to hydrometeorological extremes: revisiting the 2010 western Russian heatwave
Long-term dynamics of monoterpene synthase activities, monoterpene storage pools and emissions in boreal Scots pine
The impacts of recent drought on fire, forest loss, and regional smoke emissions in lowland Bolivia
Algal richness in BSCs in forests under different management intensity with some implications for P cycling
The strategies of water–carbon regulation of plants in a subtropical primary forest on karst soils in China
Fungal loop transfer of nitrogen depends on biocrust constituents and nitrogen form
Estimating aboveground carbon density and its uncertainty in Borneo's structurally complex tropical forests using airborne laser scanning
Technical note: Rapid image-based field methods improve the quantification of termite mound structures and greenhouse-gas fluxes
Thermal acclimation of leaf photosynthetic traits in an evergreen woodland, consistent with the coordination hypothesis
Canopy area of large trees explains aboveground biomass variations across neotropical forest landscapes
Kamel Soudani, Nicolas Delpierre, Daniel Berveiller, Gabriel Hmimina, Jean-Yves Pontailler, Lou Seureau, Gaëlle Vincent, and Éric Dufrêne
Biogeosciences, 18, 3391–3408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3391-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3391-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an exhaustive comparative survey of eight proximal methods to estimate forest phenology. We focused on methodological aspects and thoroughly assessed deviations between predicted and observed phenological dates and pointed out their main causes. We show that proximal methods provide robust phenological metrics. They can be used to retrieve long-term phenological series at flux measurement sites and help interpret the interannual variability and trends of mass and energy exchanges.
Iuliia Shevtsova, Ulrike Herzschuh, Birgit Heim, Luise Schulte, Simone Stünzi, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Evgeniy S. Zakharov, and Stefan Kruse
Biogeosciences, 18, 3343–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3343-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the light of climate changes in subarctic regions, notable general increase in above-ground biomass for the past 15 years (2000 to 2017) was estimated along a tundra–taiga gradient of central Chukotka (Russian Far East). The greatest increase occurred in the northern taiga in the areas of larch closed-canopy forest expansion with Cajander larch as a main contributor. For the estimations, we used field data (taxa-separated plant biomass, 2018) and upscaled it based on Landsat satellite data.
Dushyant Kumar, Mirjam Pfeiffer, Camille Gaillard, Liam Langan, and Simon Scheiter
Biogeosciences, 18, 2957–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2957-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we investigated the impact of climate change and rising CO2 on biomes using a vegetation model in South Asia, an often neglected region in global modeling studies. Understanding these impacts guides ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation. Our results indicate that savanna regions are at high risk of woody encroachment and transitioning into the forest, and the bioclimatic envelopes of biomes need adjustments to account for shifts caused by climate change and CO2.
Christopher Krich, Mirco Migliavacca, Diego G. Miralles, Guido Kraemer, Tarek S. El-Madany, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Runge, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 2379–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystems and the atmosphere interact with each other. These interactions determine e.g. the water and carbon fluxes and thus are crucial to understand climate change effects. We analysed the interactions for many ecosystems across the globe, showing that very different ecosystems can have similar interactions with the atmosphere. Meteorological conditions seem to be the strongest interaction-shaping factor. This means that common principles can be identified to describe ecosystem behaviour.
Shawn D. Taylor and Dawn M. Browning
Biogeosciences, 18, 2213–2220, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2213-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Grasslands in North America provide multiple ecosystem services and drive the production of a lot of grain, beef, and other staples. We evaluated a grassland productivity model using nearly 500 years of grassland camera data and found the areas where the model worked well and locations where it did not. Long-term productivity projections for the suitable locations can be made immediately with the current model, while other areas, such as the southwest, will need further model development.
Kathryn I. Wheeler and Michael C. Dietze
Biogeosciences, 18, 1971–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1971-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1971-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring leaf phenology (i.e., seasonality) allows for tracking the progression of climate change and seasonal variations in a variety of organismal and ecosystem processes. Recent versions of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites allow for the monitoring of a phenological-sensitive index at a high temporal frequency (5–10 min) throughout most of the western hemisphere. Here we show the high potential of these new data to measure the phenology of deciduous forests.
Jürgen Homeier and Christoph Leuschner
Biogeosciences, 18, 1525–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1525-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1525-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We studied aboveground productivity in humid tropical montane old-growth forests in two highly diverse Andean regions with large geological and topographic heterogeneity and related productivity to tree diversity and climatic, edaphic and stand structural factors. From our results we conclude that the productivity of highly diverse Neotropical montane forests is primarily controlled by thermal and edaphic factors and stand structural properties, while tree diversity is of minor importance.
Florian Beyer, Florian Jansen, Gerald Jurasinski, Marian Koch, Birgit Schröder, and Franziska Koebsch
Biogeosciences, 18, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing drought frequency can jeopardize the restoration of the CO2 sink function in degraded peatlands. We explored the effect of the summer drought in 2018 on vegetation development and CO2 exchange in a rewetted fen. Drought triggered a rapid spread of new vegetation whose CO2 assimilation could partially outweigh the drought-related rise in respiratory CO2 loss. Our study shows important regulatory mechanisms of a rewetted fen to maintain its net CO2 sink function even in a very dry year.
Shunli Yu, Guoxun Wang, Ofir Katz, Danfeng Li, Qibing Wang, Ming Yue, and Canran Liu
Biogeosciences, 18, 655–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-655-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-655-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
As key traits of plants, the mechanisms of diversity of fruit sizes and seed sizes have not been solved completely until now. Therefore, the research related to them will continue to be done in the future. Our research, combined with future works, will provide a profound basis for solving the origin of fleshy-fruited species and seed size diversity.
Jan Pisek, Angela Erb, Lauri Korhonen, Tobias Biermann, Arnaud Carrara, Edoardo Cremonese, Matthias Cuntz, Silvano Fares, Giacomo Gerosa, Thomas Grünwald, Niklas Hase, Michal Heliasz, Andreas Ibrom, Alexander Knohl, Johannes Kobler, Bart Kruijt, Holger Lange, Leena Leppänen, Jean-Marc Limousin, Francisco Ramon Lopez Serrano, Denis Loustau, Petr Lukeš, Lars Lundin, Riccardo Marzuoli, Meelis Mölder, Leonardo Montagnani, Johan Neirynck, Matthias Peichl, Corinna Rebmann, Eva Rubio, Margarida Santos-Reis, Crystal Schaaf, Marius Schmidt, Guillaume Simioni, Kamel Soudani, and Caroline Vincke
Biogeosciences, 18, 621–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-621-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understory vegetation is the most diverse, least understood component of forests worldwide. Understory communities are important drivers of overstory succession and nutrient cycling. Multi-angle remote sensing enables us to describe surface properties by means that are not possible when using mono-angle data. Evaluated over an extensive set of forest ecosystem experimental sites in Europe, our reported method can deliver good retrievals, especially over different forest types with open canopies.
Peiqi Yang, Christiaan van der Tol, Petya K. E. Campbell, and Elizabeth M. Middleton
Biogeosciences, 18, 441–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-441-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-441-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has the potential to facilitate the monitoring of photosynthesis from space. This study presents a systematic analysis of the physical and physiological meaning of the relationship between fluorescence and photosynthesis at both leaf and canopy levels. We unravel the individual effects of incoming light, vegetation structure and leaf physiology and highlight their joint effects on the relationship between canopy fluorescence and photosynthesis.
Aurelio Guevara-Escobar, Enrique González-Sosa, Mónica Cervantes-Jiménez, Humberto Suzán-Azpiri, Mónica Elisa Queijeiro-Bolaños, Israel Carrillo-Ángeles, and Víctor Hugo Cambrón-Sandoval
Biogeosciences, 18, 367–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
All vegetation types can sequester carbon dioxide. We compared ground measurements (eddy covariance) with remotely sensed data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) and machine learning ensembles of primary production in a semiarid scrub in Mexico. The annual carbon sink for this vegetation type was −283.5 g C m−2 y−1; MODIS underestimated the primary productivity, and the machine learning modeling was better locally.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Milan Flach, Alexander Brenning, Fabian Gans, Markus Reichstein, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Drought and heat events affect the uptake and sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We study the impact of droughts and heatwaves on the uptake of CO2 of different vegetation types at the global scale. We find that agricultural areas are generally strongly affected. Forests instead are not particularly sensitive to the events under scrutiny. This implies different water management strategies of forests but also a lack of sensitivity to remote-sensing-derived vegetation activity.
Toby D. Jackson, Sarab Sethi, Ebba Dellwik, Nikolas Angelou, Amanda Bunce, Tim van Emmerik, Marine Duperat, Jean-Claude Ruel, Axel Wellpott, Skip Van Bloem, Alexis Achim, Brian Kane, Dominick M. Ciruzzi, Steven P. Loheide II, Ken James, Daniel Burcham, John Moore, Dirk Schindler, Sven Kolbe, Kilian Wiegmann, Mark Rudnicki, Victor J. Lieffers, John Selker, Andrew V. Gougherty, Tim Newson, Andrew Koeser, Jason Miesbauer, Roger Samelson, Jim Wagner, David Coomes, and Barry Gardiner
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-427, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-427, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
The motion of trees in the wind is related to wind damage risk and surface-atmosphere energy exchange. We collated all tree motion data and summarized the main patterns. We confirmed that the fundamental frequency of tree sway is related to tree height. We found that the motion of trees in conifer forests, the most studied system, is somewhat distinct from that of open-grown trees and broadleaf forests. We also found that no additional damping or amplification process emerge at high wind speeds.
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez, Jennifer A. Holm, Boris Faybishenko, Daniel Magnabosco-Marra, Rosie A. Fisher, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Alessandro C. de Araujo, William J. Riley, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Biogeosciences, 17, 6185–6205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The temporal variability in the Landsat satellite near-infrared (NIR) band captured the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances in Central Amazon. This variability was represented by the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances were properly represented by the ELM-FATES model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM)).
Nina Löbs, David Walter, Cybelli G. G. Barbosa, Sebastian Brill, Rodrigo P. Alves, Gabriela R. Cerqueira, Marta de Oliveira Sá, Alessandro C. de Araújo, Leonardo R. de Oliveira, Florian Ditas, Daniel Moran-Zuloaga, Ana Paula Pires Florentino, Stefan Wolff, Ricardo H. M. Godoi, Jürgen Kesselmeier, Sylvia Mota de Oliveira, Meinrat O. Andreae, Christopher Pöhlker, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 17, 5399–5416, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5399-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Cryptogamic organisms, such as bryophytes, lichens, and algae, cover major parts of vegetation in the Amazonian rain forest, but their relevance in biosphere–atmosphere exchange, climate processes, and nutrient cycling is largely unknown.
Over the duration of 2 years we measured their water content, temperature, and light conditions to get better insights into their physiological activity patterns and thus their potential impact on local, regional, and even global biogeochemical processes.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-409, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-409, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
Jessie M. Creamean, Julio E. Ceniceros, Lilyanna Newman, Allyson D. Pace, Thomas C. J. Hill, Paul J. DeMott, and Matthew E. Rhodes
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-367, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Microorganisms have the unique ability to form ice in clouds at relatively warm temperatures, especially specific types of plant bacteria. However, to date, members of the domain Archaea have not been evaluated for their cloud forming capabilities. Here, we show the first results of archaea that have the ability to form cloud ice at moderate supercooled temperatures that are found in hypersaline environments on Earth.
Maitane Iturrate-Garcia, Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, J. Hans C. Cornelissen, Fritz H. Schweingruber, Pascal A. Niklaus, and Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
Biogeosciences, 17, 4981–4998, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4981-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4981-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Changes on plant traits associated with climate warming might alter vegetation–climate interactions. We investigated experimentally the effects of enhanced permafrost thaw and soil nutrients on a wide set of tundra shrub traits. We found a coordinated trait response to some treatments, which suggests a shift in shrub resource, growth and defence strategies. This shift might feed back into permafrost thaw – through mechanisms associated with water demand – and into carbon and energy fluxes.
Juergen Kreyling, Rhena Schumann, and Robert Weigel
Biogeosciences, 17, 4103–4117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4103-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate forest soils (sites dominated by European beech, Fagus sylvatica) from cold and snowy sites in northern Poland release more nitrogen and phosphorus after soil freeze–thaw cycles (FTCs) than soils from warmer, snow-poor conditions in northern Germany. Our data suggest that previously cold sites, which will lose their protective snow cover during climate change, are most vulnerable to
increasing FTC frequency and magnitude, resulting in strong shifts in nitrogen leaching.
Vojtěch Abraham, Sheila Hicks, Helena Svobodová-Svitavská, Elissaveta Bozilova, Sampson Panajiotidis, Mariana Filipova-Marinova, Christin Eldegard Jensen, Spassimir Tonkov, Irena Agnieszka Pidek, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Marcelina Zimny, Eliso Kvavadze, Anna Filbrandt-Czaja, Martina Hättestrand, Nurgül Karlıoğlu Kılıç, Jana Kosenko, Maria Nosova, Elena Severova, Olga Volkova, Margrét Hallsdóttir, Laimdota Kalniņa, Agnieszka Noryśkiewicz, Bożena Noryśkiewicz, Heather Pardoe, Areti Christodoulou, Tiiu Koff, Sonia L. Fontana, Teija Alenius, Elisabeth Isaksson, Heikki Seppä, Siim Veski, Anna Pędziszewska, Martin Weiser, and Thomas Giesecke
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-217, 2020
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Pollen traps are plastic bottles recording the pollen rain during the whole year. We analysed them during the last four decades in different regions of Europe from Spitsbergen to Cyprus. The dataset is compared with current vegetation, environmental variables and fossil pollen rain. The relationship to the present vegetation patterns can be used as a tool of vegetation reconstruction in the past. The dataset is available in the Neotoma Palaeoecology Database.
Eric R. Beamesderfer, M. Altaf Arain, Myroslava Khomik, Jason J. Brodeur, and Brandon M. Burns
Biogeosciences, 17, 3563–3587, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3563-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3563-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate forests play a major role in the global carbon and water cycles, sequestering atmospheric CO2 on annual timescales. This research examined the annual carbon and water dynamics of two similar (age, soil, climate, etc.) eastern North American temperate forests of different species composition (i.e., broadleaf vs. needleleaf). Ultimately, fluxes of the deciduous forest were found to be less sensitive to temperature and water limitations – conditions expected with future climate warming.
Thomas Janssen, Katrin Fleischer, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Kim Naudts, and Han Dolman
Biogeosciences, 17, 2621–2645, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2621-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2621-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The frequency and severity of droughts are expected to increase in the tropics, impacting the functioning of tropical forests. Here, we synthesized observed responses to drought in Neotropical forests. We find that, during drought, trees generally close their leaf stomata, resulting in reductions in photosynthesis, growth and transpiration. However, on the ecosystem scale, these responses are not visible. This indicates that resistance to drought increases from the leaf to ecosystem scale.
Jessica Hetzer, Andreas Huth, Thorsten Wiegand, Hans Jürgen Dobner, and Rico Fischer
Biogeosciences, 17, 1673–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Due to limited accessibility in tropical regions, only small parts of the forest landscape can be surveyed in forest plots. Since there is an ongoing debate about how representative estimations based on samples are at larger scales, this study analyzes how many plots are needed to quantify the biomass of the entire South American tropical forest. Through novel computational and statistical investigations we show that the spatial plot positioning is crucial for continent-wide biomass estimations.
Boris Sakschewski, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Anna A. Sörensson, Romina Ruscica, Fanny Langerwisch, Maik Billing, Sarah Bereswill, Marina Hirota, Rafael S. Oliveira, Jens Heinke, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-97, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows how local adaptations of tree roots across tropical and sub-tropical South America explain patterns of biome distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration on this continent. By allowing for a high diversity of tree rooting strategies in a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we are able to mechanistically explain patterns of mean rooting depth and the effects on ecosystem functions. The approach can advance DGVMs and Earth System Models.
Jameson R. Brennan, Patricia S. Johnson, and Niall P. Hanan
Biogeosciences, 17, 1281–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1281-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Prairie dogs have been described as a keystone species and are important for grassland conservation, yet concerns exist over the impact of prairie dogs on livestock production. The aim of this study was to classify plant communities on and off prairie dog towns in South Dakota and determine the utility of using remote sensing to identity prairie dog colony extent. The results show that remote sensing is effective at determining prairie dog colony boundaries.
Simon Scheiter, Glenn R. Moncrieff, Mirjam Pfeiffer, and Steven I. Higgins
Biogeosciences, 17, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1147-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1147-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Vegetation cannot keep pace with these changes and lags behind climate. We used a vegetation model to study how these lags are influenced by CO2 and fire in Africa. Our results indicate that vegetation is most sensitive to CO2 change under current and near-future conditions and that vegetation will be committed to further change even if CO2 emissions are reduced and the climate stabilizes.
Jonathan R. Moore, Arthur P. K. Argles, Kai Zhu, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 17, 1013–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The distribution of tree sizes across Amazonia can be fitted very well (for both trunk diameter and tree mass) by a simple equilibrium model assuming power law growth and size-independent mortality. We find tree growth to mirror some aspects of metabolic scaling theory and that there may be a trade-off between fast-growing, short-lived and longer-lived, slow-growing ones. Our Amazon mortality-to-growth ratio is very similar to US temperate forests, hinting at a universal property for trees.
Hongying Yu, Zhenzhu Xu, Guangsheng Zhou, and Yaohui Shi
Biogeosciences, 17, 781–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-781-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-781-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change severely impacts grassland carbon cycling, especially in arid ecosystems, such as desert steppes. The current results highlight the great dependence of soil carbon emission on warming regimes of different duration and the important role of precipitation pulse during growing season in assessing the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance and cycle.
Rafat Qubaja, Fyodor Tatarinov, Eyal Rotenberg, and Dan Yakir
Biogeosciences, 17, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-699-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-699-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a study of the CO2 fluxes in a pine forest plantation at the dry timberline in the Negev, combining the present time with the long-term perspective. Two key issues that limit our understanding are the need to know the sources of CO2 fluxes and the need for long-term perspectives. We provide evidence that helps explain the forest plantation productivity under stressful conditions, which can assist in predicting the response of forest to future drying climate.
Richard K. F. Nair, Kendalynn A. Morris, Martin Hertel, Yunpeng Luo, Gerardo Moreno, Markus Reichstein, Marion Schrumpf, and Mirco Migliavacca
Biogeosciences, 16, 1883–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how nutrient availability affects seasonal timing of root growth and death in a Spanish savanna, adapted to a long summer drought. We found that nitrogen (N) additions led to more root biomass but number of roots was higher with N and phosphorus together. These effects were strongly affected by the time of year. In autumn root growth occurred after leaf production. This has implications for how we understand biomass production and carbon uptake in these systems.
Susanne Wiesner, Christina L. Staudhammer, Paul C. Stoy, Lindsay R. Boring, and Gregory Starr
Biogeosciences, 16, 1845–1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1845-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1845-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We studied entropy production in longleaf savanna sites with variations in land use legacy, plant diversity, and soil water availability which experienced drought. Sites with greater land use legacy had lower metabolic energy use efficiency, which delayed recovery from drought. Sites with more hardwood captured less solar radiation but more efficiently used absorbed energy. Future management applications could use these methods to quantify energy use efficiency across global ecosystems.
Shaun R. Levick, Anna E. Richards, Garry D. Cook, Jon Schatz, Marcus Guderle, Richard J. Williams, Parash Subedi, Susan E. Trumbore, and Alan N. Andersen
Biogeosciences, 16, 1493–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1493-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1493-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used airborne lidar to map the three-dimensional structure and model the biomass of plant canopies across a long-term fire experiment in the Northern Territory of Australia. Our results show that late season fires occurring every 2 years reduce the amount of carbon stored above-ground by 50 % relative to unburnt control plots. We also show how increased fire intensity removes the shrub layer from savannas and discuss the implications for biodiversity conservation.
Lisa Thieme, Daniel Graeber, Diana Hofmann, Sebastian Bischoff, Martin T. Schwarz, Bernhard Steffen, Ulf-Niklas Meyer, Martin Kaupenjohann, Wolfgang Wilcke, Beate Michalzik, and Jan Siemens
Biogeosciences, 16, 1411–1432, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1411-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1411-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of the effects of tree species selection and management intensity on dissolved organic matter (DOM), we studied solution samples along the water flow path through forests with spectroscopic methods and biodegradation tests. There are distinct changes in DOM composition and biodegradability following the water path. Aboveground DOM was influenced by tree species selection but not by management intensity. Differences became aligned in mineral soil.
Raquel Lobo-do-Vale, Cathy Kurz Besson, Maria Conceição Caldeira, Maria Manuela Chaves, and João Santos Pereira
Biogeosciences, 16, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1265-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
By comparing the cork oak tree vegetative phenology in two contrasting precipitation years in a Mediterranean ecosystem, we showed the critical role of water availability in extending the length of the growing season and determining tree growth. The observed higher transfer of nitrogen from senescent to green leaves in response to drought might compensate for the limited nitrogen uptake by the roots. Our results improve our understanding of the ecosystem's responses to climate change.
Pierre Laurent, Florent Mouillot, Maria Vanesa Moreno, Chao Yue, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 16, 275–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-275-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-275-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Fire propagation and fire size are usually considered to be proportional to fire intensity. We used a global database of fire patch size and fire radiative power, used as a proxy of fire intensity, to test this relationship at a global scale. We showed that in some regions fire size tends to saturate when a regional fire intensity threshold is reached. We concluded that increasing landscape fragmentation limits fire propagation and this effect should be accounted for in global fire modules.
Kerry Cawse-Nicholson, Joshua B. Fisher, Caroline A. Famiglietti, Amy Braverman, Florian M. Schwandner, Jennifer L. Lewicki, Philip A. Townsend, David S. Schimel, Ryan Pavlick, Kathryn J. Bormann, Antonio Ferraz, Emily L. Kang, Pulong Ma, Robert R. Bogue, Thomas Youmans, and David C. Pieri
Biogeosciences, 15, 7403–7418, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7403-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7403-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon dioxide levels are rising globally, and it is important to understand how this rise will affect plants over long time periods. Volcanoes such as Mammoth Mountain, California, have been releasing CO2 from their flanks for decades, and this provides a test environment in order to study the way plants respond to long-term CO2 exposure. We combined several airborne measurements to show that plants may have fewer, more productive leaves in areas with increasing CO2.
Tim van Emmerik, Susan Steele-Dunne, Pierre Gentine, Rafael S. Oliveira, Paulo Bittencourt, Fernanda Barros, and Nick van de Giesen
Biogeosciences, 15, 6439–6449, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6439-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Trees are very important for the water and carbon cycles. Climate and weather models often assume constant vegetation parameters because good measurements are missing. We used affordable accelerometers to measure tree sway of 19 trees in the Amazon rainforest. We show that trees respond very differently to the same weather conditions, which means that vegetation parameters are dynamic. With our measurements trees can be accounted for more realistically, improving climate and weather models.
Ricardo Dalagnol, Fabien Hubert Wagner, Lênio Soares Galvão, Bruce Walker Nelson, and Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão
Biogeosciences, 15, 6087–6104, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6087-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6087-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We used a time series of MODIS (MAIAC) satellite images from 2000 to 2017 to map the distribution of bamboo-dominated forests in the southwest Amazon and detect when the bamboo populations are suffering massive die-offs. The aim was to test if bamboo die-off is associated with higher fire probability, which could impact other plant species while promoting bamboo dominance. Our findings show 15.5 million ha of bamboo forests which are not directly associated with fire, except in drought years.
Milan Flach, Sebastian Sippel, Fabian Gans, Ana Bastos, Alexander Brenning, Markus Reichstein, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 6067–6085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Northern forests enhanced their productivity during and before the 2010 Russian mega heatwave. We scrutinize this issue with a novel type of multivariate extreme event detection approach. Forests compensate for 54 % of the carbon losses in agricultural ecosystems due to vulnerable conditions in spring and better water management in summer. The findings highlight the importance of forests in mitigating climate change, while not alleviating the consequences of extreme events for food security.
Anni Vanhatalo, Andrea Ghirardo, Eija Juurola, Jörg-Peter Schnitzler, Ina Zimmer, Heidi Hellén, Hannele Hakola, and Jaana Bäck
Biogeosciences, 15, 5047–5060, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the relationships between Scots pine needle monoterpene synthase activities, monoterpene storage pools and emissions of needles. The results showed changes in the monoterpene synthase activity of needles, linked to seasonality and needle ontogenesis, while the pool did not change considerably as a function of needle aging. Monoterpene emissions did not correlate with synthase activity or storage pool size. Additionally, we observed notably high plant-to-plant variation.
Joshua P. Heyer, Mitchell J. Power, Robert D. Field, and Margreet J. E. van Marle
Biogeosciences, 15, 4317–4331, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4317-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A variety of data were explored to better understand relationships among climate, fire, smoke emissions, and human land use in lowland Bolivia. Paleosedimentary work and modern fire records have linked drought to fire in the southern Amazon. From 2000 to 2015, our results indicate drought was the dominant control on wildfire in lowland Bolivia and in Noel Kempff Mercado National Park. Note that fire was most common in the Cerrado and seasonally inundated wetland biomes.
Karin Glaser, Karen Baumann, Peter Leinweber, Tatiana Mikhailyuk, and Ulf Karsten
Biogeosciences, 15, 4181–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4181-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4181-2018, 2018
Jing Wang, Xuefa Wen, Xinyu Zhang, and Shenggong Li
Biogeosciences, 15, 4193–4203, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The different contributions of gs, gm, and Vcmax to A indicated that plants utilized diverse trade-offs between CO2 supply and demand to maintain relatively high A. The iWUE was relatively low, but ranged widely, indicating that plants used a "profligate/opportunistic" water use strategy to maintain their survival, growth, and the structure of the community. These findings highlight the importance of covariation of gs, gm, and Vcmax for the adaptation of plants to the harsh karst environment.
Zachary T. Aanderud, Trevor B. Smart, Nan Wu, Alexander S. Taylor, Yuanming Zhang, and Jayne Belnap
Biogeosciences, 15, 3831–3840, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3831-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Besides performing multiple ecosystem services individually and collectively, biocrust constituents may also create biological networks connecting spatially and temporally distinct processes. We found evidence of fungal loops within biocrusts but only in cyanobacteria-dominated crusts for the inorganic N form NH4+. Combined with our sequencing effort, our findings suggest that even localized, minor rainfall events may allow dark septate Pleosporales to rapidly translocate N within biocrusts.
Tommaso Jucker, Gregory P. Asner, Michele Dalponte, Philip G. Brodrick, Christopher D. Philipson, Nicholas R. Vaughn, Yit Arn Teh, Craig Brelsford, David F. R. P. Burslem, Nicolas J. Deere, Robert M. Ewers, Jakub Kvasnica, Simon L. Lewis, Yadvinder Malhi, Sol Milne, Reuben Nilus, Marion Pfeifer, Oliver L. Phillips, Lan Qie, Nathan Renneboog, Glen Reynolds, Terhi Riutta, Matthew J. Struebig, Martin Svátek, Edgar C. Turner, and David A. Coomes
Biogeosciences, 15, 3811–3830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Efforts to protect tropical forests hinge on recognizing the ecosystem services they provide, including their ability to store carbon. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) captures information on the 3-D structure of forests, allowing carbon stocks to be mapped. By combining ALS with data from 173 field plots on the island of Borneo, we develop a simple yet general model for estimating forest carbon stocks from the air. Our model underpins ongoing efforts to restore Borneo's unique tropical forests.
Philipp A. Nauer, Eleonora Chiri, David de Souza, Lindsay B. Hutley, and Stefan K. Arndt
Biogeosciences, 15, 3731–3742, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3731-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3731-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Termites perform important biogeochemical processes in tropical ecosystems, but the complex structure of their mounds impede an accurate quantitative description. We present two novel low-cost field methods, based on photogrammetry and image analysis, to quantify the volume, surface area and porosities of termite mounds. The methods are accurate, rapid to apply and superior to traditional methods, and thus improve biogeochemical rate estimates such as greenhouse-gas fluxes from termite mounds.
Henrique Fürstenau Togashi, Iain Colin Prentice, Owen K. Atkin, Craig Macfarlane, Suzanne M. Prober, Keith J. Bloomfield, and Bradley John Evans
Biogeosciences, 15, 3461–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3461-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystem models commonly assume that photosynthetic traits, such as carboxylation capacity measured at a standard temperature, are constant in time and therefore do not acclimate. Optimality hypotheses suggest this assumption may be incorrect. We investigated acclimation by carrying out measurements on woody species during distinct seasons in Western Australia. Our study shows evidence that carboxylation capacity should acclimate so that it increases somewhat with growth temperature.
Victoria Meyer, Sassan Saatchi, David B. Clark, Michael Keller, Grégoire Vincent, António Ferraz, Fernando Espírito-Santo, Marcus V. N. d'Oliveira, Dahlia Kaki, and Jérôme Chave
Biogeosciences, 15, 3377–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3377-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows how a simple lidar-derived metric measuring the area covered by large trees (> 27 m) can explain biomass variations across the Neotropics. The importance of this metric is in its relevance to the structural and ecological characteristics of large trees and their unique contribution in determining the biomass of forests. Our results point toward simplified ground data collection and potential algorithms for future space missions focusing on biomass estimation.
Cited articles
Ahlstrom, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012.
Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P. H., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Silva, F. B. E., Brown, C., Butler, A., Calvin, K., Dendoncker, N., Doelman, J. C., Dunford, R., Engstrom, K., Eitelberg, D., Fujimori, S., Harrison, P. A., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Holzhauer, S., Humpenoder, F., Jacobs-Crisioni, C., Jain, A. K., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Lavalle, C., Lenton, T., Liu, J. Y., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Powell, T., Sands, R. D., Schaldach, R., Stehfest, E., Steinbuks, J., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Wise, M. A., and Rounsevell, M. D. A.: Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 767–781, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13447, 2017.
Alkama, R. and Cescatti, A.: Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover, Science, 351, 600–604, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8083, 2016.
Alkemade, R., van Oorschot, M., Miles, L., Nellemann, C., Bakkenes, M., and ten Brink, B.: GLOBIO3: A framework to investigate options for reducing global terrestrial biodiversity loss, Ecosystems, 12, 374–390, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-009-9229-5, 2009.
Anderson, K. and Peters, G.: The trouble with negative emissions, Science, 354, 182–183, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah4567, 2016.
Arneth, A., Niinemets, Ü., Pressley, S., Bäck, J., Hari, P., Karl, T., Noe, S., Prentice, I. C., Serça, D., Hickler, T., Wolf, A., and Smith, B.: Process-based estimates of terrestrial ecosystem isoprene emissions: incorporating the effects of a direct CO2-isoprene interaction, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 31–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-31-2007, 2007.
Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Zaehle, S., Tsigaridis, K., Menon, S., Bartlein, P. J., Feichter, J., Korhola, A., Kulmala, M., O'Donnell, D., Schurgers, G., Sorvari, S., and Vesala, T.: Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system, Nat. Geosci., 3, 525–532, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo905, 2010.
Bala, G., Caldeira, K., Wickett, M., Phillips, T. J., Lobell, D. B., Delire, C., and Mirin, A.: Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 6550–6555, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0608998104, 2007.
Ban-Weiss, G. A., Bala, G., Cao, L., Pongratz, J., and Caldeira, K.: Climate forcing and response to idealized changes in surface latent and sensible heat, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034032, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034032, 2011.
Bathiany, S., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., Raddatz, T., and Gayler, V.: Combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of large-scale forest cover changes in the MPI earth system model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1383–1399, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1383-2010, 2010.
Behera, S. N., Sharma, M., Aneja, V. P., and Balasubramanian, R.: Ammonia in the atmosphere: a review on emission sources, atmospheric chemistry and deposition on terrestrial bodies, Environ. Sci. Pollut. R., 20, 8092–8131, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2051-9, 2013.
Behrman, K. D., Juenger, T. E., Kiniry, J. R., and Keitt, T. H.: Spatial land use trade-offs for maintenance of biodiversity, biofuel, and agriculture, Landscape Ecol., 30, 1987–1999, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0225-1, 2015.
Bennett, E. M., Peterson, G. D., and Gordon, L. J.: Understanding relationships among multiple ecosystem services, Ecol. Lett., 12, 1394–1404, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01387.x, 2009.
Betts, R. A.: Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo, Nature, 408, 187–190, https://doi.org/10.1038/35041545, 2000.
Blanke, J. H., Olin, S., Stürck, J., Sahlin, U., Lindeskog, M., Helming, J., and Lehsten, V.: Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 239, 385–398, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038, 2017.
Boisier, J. P., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., and Ciais, P.: Inferring past land use-induced changes in surface albedo from satellite observations: a useful tool to evaluate model simulations, Biogeosciences, 10, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1501-2013, 2013.
Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Muller, C., Reichstein, M., and Smith, B.: Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 679–706, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x, 2007.
Boucher, O., Myhre, G., and Myhre, A.: Direct human influence of irrigation on atmospheric water vapour and climate, Clim. Dynam., 22, 597–603, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0402-4, 2004.
Boysen, L. R., Lucht, W., and Gerten, D.: Trade-offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 4303–4317, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13745, 2017.
Bradshaw, C. J. A., Sodhi, N. S., Peh, K. S. H., and Brook, B. W.: Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 2379–2395, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x, 2007.
Camargo, J. A. and Alonso, A.: Ecological and toxicological effects of inorganic nitrogen pollution in aquatic ecosystems: A global assessment, Environ. Int., 32, 831–849, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2006.05.002, 2006.
Carslaw, K. S., Boucher, O., Spracklen, D. V., Mann, G. W., Rae, J. G. L., Woodward, S., and Kulmala, M.: A review of natural aerosol interactions and feedbacks within the Earth system, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1701–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-1701-2010, 2010.
Cassman, K. G., Dobermann, A., and Walters, D. T.: Agroecosystems, nitrogen-use efficiency, and nitrogen management, Ambio, 31, 132–140, https://doi.org/10.1639/0044-7447(2002)031[0132:Anuean]2.0.Co;2, 2002.
Creutzig, F.: Economic and ecological views on climate change mitigation with bioenergy and negative emissions, Gcb Bioenergy, 8, 4–10, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12235, 2016.
Creutzig, F., Ravindranath, N. H., Berndes, G., Bolwig, S., Bright, R., Cherubini, F., Chum, H., Corbera, E., Delucchi, M., Faaij, A., Fargione, J., Haberl, H., Heath, G., Lucon, O., Plevin, R., Popp, A., Robledo-Abad, C., Rose, S., Smith, P., Stromman, A., Suh, S., and Masera, O.: Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment, Gcb Bioenergy, 7, 916–944, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12205, 2015.
Crutzen, P. J., Mosier, A. R., Smith, K. A., and Winiwarter, W.: N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 389–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-389-2008, 2008.
Cunningham, S. C., Mac Nally, R., Baker, P. J., Cavagnaro, T. R., Beringer, J., Thomson, J. R., and Thompson, R. M.: Balancing the environmental benefits of reforestation in agricultural regions, Perspect. Plant Ecol., 17, 301–317, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2015.06.001, 2015.
Davidson, E. A. and Kanter, D.: Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 105012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/105012, 2014.
Davies-Barnard, T., Valdes, P. J., Singarayer, J. S., Pacifico, F. M., and Jones, C. D.: Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 114014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114014, 2014.
DeFries, R. S., Foley, J. A., and Asner, G. P.: Land-use choices: balancing human needs and ecosystem function, Front. Ecol. Environ., 2, 249–257, https://doi.org/10.1890/1540-9295(2004)002[0249:Lcbhna]2.0.Co;2, 2004.
Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., and Magne, B.: Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 200–214, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004, 2017.
de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Boisier, J. P., Pitman, A., Bonan, G. B., Brovkin, V., Cruz, F., Delire, C., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Lawrence, P. J., van der Molen, M. K., Muller, C., Reick, C. H., Strengers, B. J., and Voldoire, A.: Determining Robust Impacts of Land-Use-Induced Land Cover Changes on Surface Climate over North America and Eurasia: Results from the First Set of LUCID Experiments, J Climate, 25, 3261–3281, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00338.1, 2012.
Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Lassaletta, L., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Neumann-Hermans, K., Harmsen, M., Daioglou, V., Biemans, H., van der Sluis, S., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation, submitted to Global Environ. Chang., 2017.
Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Mueller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Florke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Folberth, C., Foster, I., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Olin, S., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q. H., and Wisser, D.: Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3239–3244, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222474110, 2014.
Ellison, D., Futter, M. N., and Bishop, K.: On the forest cover-water yield debate: from demand- to supply-side thinking, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 806–820, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02589.x, 2012.
Erisman, J. W., Galloway, J., Seitzinger, S., Bleeker, A., and Butterbach-Bahl, K.: Reactive nitrogen in the environment and its effect on climate change, Curr. Opin. Env. Sust., 3, 281–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2011.08.012, 2011.
Farley, K. A., Jobbagy, E. G., and Jackson, R. B.: Effects of afforestation on water yield: a global synthesis with implications for policy, Glob. Change Biol., 11, 1565–1576, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01011.x, 2005.
Ferreira, S. and Ghimire, R.: Forest cover, socioeconomics, and reported flood frequency in developing countries, Water Resour. Res., 48, W08529, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011wr011701, 2012.
Fleischer, K., Warlind, D., van der Molen, M. K., Rebel, K. T., Arneth, A., Erisman, J. W., Wassen, M. J., Smith, B., Gough, C. M., Margolis, H. A., Cescatti, A., Montagnani, L., Arain, A., and Dolman, A. J.: Low historical nitrogen deposition effect on carbon sequestration in the boreal zone, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 120, 2542–2561, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG002988, 2015.
Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M. T., Daily, G. C., Gibbs, H. K., Helkowski, J. H., Holloway, T., Howard, E. A., Kucharik, C. J., Monfreda, C., Patz, J. A., Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N., and Snyder, P. K.: Global consequences of land use, Science, 309, 570–574, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111772, 2005.
Friedlingstein, P., Meinshausen, M., Arora, V. K., Jones, C. D., Anav, A., Liddicoat, S. K., and Knutti, R.: Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks, J. Climate, 27, 511–526, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00579.1, 2014.
Fuchs, H., Hofzumahaus, A., Rohrer, F., Bohn, B., Brauers, T., Dorn, H. P., Haseler, R., Holland, F., Kaminski, M., Li, X., Lu, K., Nehr, S., Tillmann, R., Wegener, R., and Wahner, A.: Experimental evidence for efficient hydroxyl radical regeneration in isoprene oxidation, Nat. Geosci., 6, 1023–1026, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1964, 2013.
Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Nakicenovic, N., Le Quere, C., Raupach, M. R., Sharifi, A., Smith, P., and Yamagata, Y.: COMMENTARY: Betting on negative emissions, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 850–853, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2392, 2014.
Galloway, J. N., Dentener, F. J., Capone, D. G., Boyer, E. W., Howarth, R. W., Seitzinger, S. P., Asner, G. P., Cleveland, C. C., Green, P. A., Holland, E. A., Karl, D. M., Michaels, A. F., Porter, J. H., Townsend, A. R., and Vorosmarty, C. J.: Nitrogen cycles: past, present, and future, Biogeochemistry, 70, 153–226, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-004-0370-0, 2004.
Ganzeveld, L., Bouwman, L., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Eickhout, B., and Lelieveld, J.: Impact of future land use and land cover changes on atmospheric chemistry-climate interactions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D23301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014041, 2010.
Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S.: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance – hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 286, 249–270, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.029, 2004.
Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., Collatz, G. J., Morton, D. C., and DeFries, R. S.: Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products, Biogeosciences, 7, 1171–1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1171-2010, 2010.
Hallgren, W., Schlosser, C. A., Monier, E., Kicklighter, D., Sokolov, A., and Melillo, J.: Climate impacts of a large-scale biofuels expansion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1624–1630, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50352, 2013.
Hansen, R. F., Lewis, T. R., Graham, L., Whalley, S. K., Seakins, P. W., Heard, D. E., and Blitz, M. A.: OH production from the photolysis of isoprene-derived peroxy radicals: cross-sections, quantum yields and atmospheric implications, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys, 19, 2332–2345, https://doi.org/10.1039/c6cp06718b, 2017.
Hantson, S., Knorr, W., Schurgers, G., Pugh, T. A. M., and Arneth, A.: Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use, Atmos. Environ., 155, 35–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.02.010, 2017.
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., and Piontek, F.: A trend-preserving bias correction –the ISI-MIP approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013.
Hoogwijk, M., Faaija, A., van den Broek, R., Berndes, G., Gielen, D., and Turkenburg, W.: Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy, Biomass Bioenerg., 25, 119–133, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0961-9534(02)00191-5, 2003.
Hua, F. Y., Wang, X. Y., Zheng, X. L., Fisher, B., Wang, L., Zhu, J. G., Tang, Y., Yu, D. W., and Wilcove, D. S.: Opportunities for biodiversity gains under the world's largest reforestation programme, Nat. Commun., 7, 12717, https://doi.org/10.1038/Ncomms12717, 2016.
Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Klein, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Bonsch, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Stevanovic, M., and Muller, C.: Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 064029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064029, 2014.
Jackson, R. B., Jobbagy, E. G., Avissar, R., Roy, S. B., Barrett, D. J., Cook, C. W., Farley, K. A., le Maitre, D. C., McCarl, B. A., and Murray, B. C.: Trading water for carbon with biological sequestration, Science, 310, 1944–1947, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1119282, 2005.
Jantz, S. M., Barker, B., Brooks, T. M., Chini, L. P., Huang, Q. Y., Moore, R. M., Noel, J., and Hurtt, G. C.: Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation, Conserv. Biol., 29, 1122–1131, https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12549, 2015.
Kato, E. and Yamagata, Y.: BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions, Earths Future, 2, 421–439, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000249, 2014.
Keller, D. P., Feng, E. Y., and Oschlies, A.: Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario, Nat. Commun., 5, 3304, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4304, 2014.
Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Wang, H., Simard, M., Fisher, J. B., and Willis, K. O.: A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models, Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013.
Kemper, J.: Biomass and carbon dioxide capture and storage: A review, Int. J. Greenh. Gas Con., 40, 401–430, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2015.06.012, 2015.
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., van Drecht, G., and de Vos, M.: The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12,000 years, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 20, 73–86, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00587.x, 2011.
Krause, A., Pugh, T. A. M., Bayer, A. D., Lindeskog, M., and Arneth, A.: Impacts of land-use history on the recovery of ecosystems after agricultural abandonment, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016.
Krause, A., Pugh, T. A. M., Bayer, A. D., Li, W., Leung, F., Bondeau, A., Doelman, J. C., Humpenöder, F., Anthoni, P., Bodirsky, B. L., Ciais, P., Müller, C., Murray-Tortarolo, G., Olin, S., Popp, A., Sitch, S., Stehfest, E., and Arneth, A.: Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate change mitigation efforts, in preparation, 2017.
Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010.
Lamarque, J. F., Kyle, G. P., Meinshausen, M., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Conley, A. J., and Vitt, F.: Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways, Climatic Change, 109, 191–212, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0, 2011.
Lelieveld, J., Butler, T. M., Crowley, J. N., Dillon, T. J., Fischer, H., Ganzeveld, L., Harder, H., Lawrence, M. G., Martinez, M., Taraborrelli, D., and Williams, J.: Atmospheric oxidation capacity sustained by a tropical forest, Nature, 452, 737–740, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06870, 2008.
Li, Y., Zhao, M. S., Motesharrei, S., Mu, Q. Z., Kalnay, E., and Li, S. C.: Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations, Nat. Commun., 6, 6603, https://doi.org/10.1038/Ncomms7603, 2015.
Liang, J. J., Crowther, T. W., Picard, N., Wiser, S., Zhou, M., Alberti, G., Schulze, E. D., McGuire, A. D., Bozzato, F., Pretzsch, H., de-Miguel, S., Paquette, A., Herault, B., Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Barrett, C. B., Glick, H. B., Hengeveld, G. M., Nabuurs, G. J., Pfautsch, S., Viana, H., Vibrans, A. C., Ammer, C., Schall, P., Verbyla, D., Tchebakova, N., Fischer, M., Watson, J. V., Chen, H. Y. H., Lei, X. D., Schelhaas, M. J., Lu, H. C., Gianelle, D., Parfenova, E. I., Salas, C., Lee, E., Lee, B., Kim, H. S., Bruelheide, H., Coomes, D. A., Piotto, D., Sunderland, T., Schmid, B., Gourlet-Fleury, S., Sonke, B., Tavani, R., Zhu, J., Brandl, S., Vayreda, J., Kitahara, F., Searle, E. B., Neldner, V. J., Ngugi, M. R., Baraloto, C., Frizzera, L., Balazy, R., Oleksyn, J., Zawila-Niedzwiecki, T., Bouriaud, O., Bussotti, F., Finer, L., Jaroszewicz, B., Jucker, T., Valladares, F., Jagodzinski, A. M., Peri, P. L., Gonmadje, C., Marthy, W., O'Brien, T., Martin, E. H., Marshall, A. R., Rovero, F., Bitariho, R., Niklaus, P. A., Alvarez-Loayza, P., Chamuya, N., Valencia, R., Mortier, F., Wortel, V., Engone-Obiang, N. L., Ferreira, L. V., Odeke, D. E., Vasquez, R. M., Lewis, S. L., and Reich, P. B.: Positive biodiversity-productivity relationship predominant in global forests, Science, 354, 6309, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf8957, 2016.
Lindeskog, M., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Waha, K., Seaquist, J., Olin, S., and Smith, B.: Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in Africa, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013.
Liu, G. D., Li, Y. C., and Alva, A. K.: Moisture quotients for ammonia volatilization from four soils in potato production regions, Water Air Soil Poll., 183, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-007-9361-9, 2007.
Lotze-Campen, H., Muller, C., Bondeau, A., Rost, S., Popp, A., and Lucht, W.: Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach, Agr. Econ.-Blackwell, 39, 325–338, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00336.x, 2008.
Mace, G. M., Norris, K., and Fitter, A. H.: Biodiversity and ecosystem services: a multilayered relationship, Trends Ecol. Evol., 27, 19–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2011.08.006, 2012.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J. F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D. P. P.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA): Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, Washington, DC, USA, 155 pp., 2005.
Mueller, N. D., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. A.: Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management, Nature, 490, 254–257, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11420, 2012.
Mueller, N. D., Lassaletta, L., Runck, B. C., Billen, G., Garnier, J., and Gerber, J. S.: Declining spatial efficiency of global cropland nitrogen allocation, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 31, 245–257, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005515, 2017.
Murphy, G. E. P. and Romanuk, T. N.: A meta-analysis of declines in local species richness from human disturbances, Ecol. Evol., 4, 91–103, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.909, 2014.
Newbold, T., Hudson, L. N., Phillips, H. R. P., Hill, S. L. L., Contu, S., Lysenko, I., Blandon, A., Butchart, S. H. M., Booth, H. L., Day, J., De Palma, A., Harrison, M. L. K., Kirkpatrick, L., Pynegar, E., Robinson, A., Simpson, J., Mace, G. M., Scharlemann, J. P. W., and Purvis, A.: A global model of the response of tropical and sub-tropical forest biodiversity to anthropogenic pressures, P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci., 281, 1792, https://doi.org/10.1098/Rspb.2014.1371, 2014.
Oki, T. and Kanae, S.: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources, Science, 313, 1068–1072, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128845, 2006.
Olin, S., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Schurgers, G., Wårlind, D., Mishurov, M., Zaehle, S., Stocker, B. D., Smith, B., and Arneth, A.: Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015a.
Olin, S., Schurgers, G., Lindeskog, M., Wårlind, D., Smith, B., Bodin, P., Holmér, J., and Arneth, A.: Modelling the response of yields and tissue C : N to changes in atmospheric CO2 and N management in the main wheat regions of western Europe, Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015b.
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways, Climatic Change, 122, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2, 2014.
Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Le Quere, C., Marland, G., Raupach, M. R., and Wilson, C.: COMMENTARY: The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 4–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783, 2013.
Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Fuss, S., Jackson, R. B., Korsbakken, J. I., Le Quere, C., and Nakicenovic, N.: Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 118–123, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate3202, 2017.
Piao, S. L., Sitch, S., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Peylin, P., Wang, X. H., Ahlstrom, A., Anav, A., Canadell, J. G., Cong, N., Huntingford, C., Jung, M., Levis, S., Levy, P. E., Li, J. S., Lin, X., Lomas, M. R., Lu, M., Luo, Y. Q., Ma, Y. C., Myneni, R. B., Poulter, B., Sun, Z. Z., Wang, T., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.: Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends, Glob. Change Biol., 19, 2117–2132, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12187, 2013.
Popp, A., Humpenoder, F., Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Bonsch, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Muller, C., Biewald, A., Rolinski, S., Stevanovic, M., and Dietrich, J. P.: Land-use protection for climate change mitigation, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 1095–1098, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate2444, 2014.
Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenoder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Kyle, P., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Valin, H., Waldhoff, S., Weindl, I., Wise, M., Kriegler, E., Lotze-Campen, H., Fricko, O., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 331–345, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002, 2017.
Posthumus, H., Morris, J., Hess, T. M., Neville, D., Phillips, E., and Baylis, A.: Impacts of the summer 2007 floods on agriculture in England, J. Flood Risk Manag., 2, 182–189, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01031.x, 2009.
Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Arneth, A., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Eitelberg, D. A., Engstrom, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenoder, F., Jain, A. K., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Sands, R. D., Schaldach, R., Schungel, J., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., Van Meijl, H., Van Vliet, J., and Verburg, P. H.: Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 3967–3983, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337, 2016.
Pugh, T. A. M., MacKenzie, A. R., Hewitt, C. N., Langford, B., Edwards, P. M., Furneaux, K. L., Heard, D. E., Hopkins, J. R., Jones, C. E., Karunaharan, A., Lee, J., Mills, G., Misztal, P., Moller, S., Monks, P. S., and Whalley, L. K.: Simulating atmospheric composition over a South-East Asian tropical rainforest: performance of a chemistry box model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 279–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-279-2010, 2010.
Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Olin, S., Ahlström, A., Bayer, A. D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Lindeskog, M., and Schurgers, G.: Simulated carbon emissions from land use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 124008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124008, 2015.
Pyle, J. A., Warwick, N. J., Harris, N. R. P., Abas, M. R., Archibald, A. T., Ashfold, M. J., Ashworth, K., Barkley, M. P., Carver, G. D., Chance, K., Dorsey, J. R., Fowler, D., Gonzi, S., Gostlow, B., Hewitt, C. N., Kurosu, T. P., Lee, J. D., Langford, S. B., Mills, G., Moller, S., MacKenzie, A. R., Manning, A. J., Misztal, P., Nadzir, M. S. M., Nemitz, E., Newton, H. M., O'Brien, L. M., Ong, S., Oram, D., Palmer, P. I., Peng, L. K., Phang, S. M., Pike, R., Pugh, T. A. M., Rahman, N. A., Robinson, A. D., Sentian, J., Abu Samah, A., Skiba, U., Ung, H. E., Yong, S. E., and Young, P. J.: The impact of local surface changes in Borneo on atmospheric composition at wider spatial scales: coastal processes, land-use change and air quality, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 366, 3210–3224, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0060, 2011.
Reilly, J., Melillo, J., Cai, Y. X., Kicklighter, D., Gurgel, A., Paltsev, S., Cronin, T., Sokolov, A., and Schlosser, A.: Using Land To Mitigate Climate Change: Hitting the Target, Recognizing the Trade-offs, Environ. Sci. Technol., 46, 5672–5679, https://doi.org/10.1021/es2034729, 2012.
Reiner, D. M.: Learning through a portfolio of carbon capture and storage demonstration projects, Nat. Energy, 1, 15011, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nenergy.2015.11, 2016.
Rodriguez, J. P., Beard, T. D., Bennett, E. M., Cumming, G. S., Cork, S. J., Agard, J., Dobson, A. P., and Peterson, G. D.: Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services, Ecol. Soc, 11, 28, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-01667-110128, 2006.
Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 519–527, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2572, 2015.
Rosenkranz, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Schnitzler, J. P., and Arneth, A.: Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions – selecting climate-smart cultivars, Plant Cell Environ., 38, 1896–1912, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.12453, 2015.
Samir, K. C. and Lutz, W.: The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 181–192, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004, 2017.
Sampaio, G., Nobre, C., Costa, M. H., Satyamurty, P., Soares, B. S., and Cardoso, M.: Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl030612, 2007.
Santangeli, A., Toivonen, T., Pouzols, F. M., Pogson, M., Hastings, A., Smith, P., and Moilanen, A.: Global change synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy and biodiversity, Gcb Bioenergy, 8, 941–951, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12299, 2016.
Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., Holzinger, R., and Goldstein, A. H.: Process-based modelling of biogenic monoterpene emissions combining production and release from storage, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 3409–3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-3409-2009, 2009.
Scott, C. E., Rap, A., Spracklen, D. V., Forster, P. M., Carslaw, K. S., Mann, G. W., Pringle, K. J., Kivekäs, N., Kulmala, M., Lihavainen, H., and Tunved, P.: The direct and indirect radiative effects of biogenic secondary organic aerosol, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 447–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-447-2014, 2014.
Scott, V., Haszeldine, R. S., Tett, S. F. B., and Oschlies, A.: Fossil fuels in a trillion tonne world, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 419–423, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate2578, 2015.
Searle, S. Y. and Malins, C. J.: Will energy crop yields meet expectations?, Biomass Bioenerg., 65, 3–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2014.01.001, 2014.
Sillman, S.: The relation between ozone, NOx and hydrocarbons in urban and polluted rural environments, Atmos. Environ., 33, 1821–1845, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00345-8, 1999.
Slade, R., Bauen, A., and Gross, R.: Global bioenergy resources, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 99–105, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate2097, 2014.
Smith, B., Wårlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.
Smith, L. J. and Torn, M. S.: Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon dioxide removal, Climatic Change, 118, 89–103, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0682-3, 2013.
Smith, P., Ashmore, M. R., Black, H. I. J., Burgess, P. J., Evans, C. D., Quine, T. A., Thomson, A. M., Hicks, K., and Orr, H. G.: The role of ecosystems and their management in regulating climate, and soil, water and air quality, J. Appl. Ecol., 50, 812–829, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12016, 2013.
Smith, P., Davis, S. J., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Minx, J., Gabrielle, B., Kato, E., Jackson, R. B., Cowie, A., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Rogelj, J., Ciais, P., Milne, J., Canadell, J. G., McCollum, D., Peters, G., Andrew, R., Krey, V., Shrestha, G., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Grubler, A., Heidug, W. K., Jonas, M., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Littleton, E., Lowe, J., Moreira, J. R., Nakicenovic, N., Obersteiner, M., Patwardhan, A., Rogner, M., Rubin, E., Sharifi, A., Torvanger, A., Yamagata, Y., Edmonds, J., and Cho, Y.: Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 42–50, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate2870, 2016.
Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D., Kram, T., Bouwman, L., Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., Biemans, H., Bouwman, A., den Elzen, M., Janse, J., Lucas, P., van Minnen, J., Müller, C., and Prins, A.: Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change with IMAGE 3.0: Model description and policy applications, The Hague, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands, 2014.
Sterling, S. M., Ducharne, A., and Polcher, J.: The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 385–390, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate1690, 2013.
Tilman, D., Cassman, K. G., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R., and Polasky, S.: Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices, Nature, 418, 671–677, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01014, 2002.
Unger, N.: Human land-use-driven reduction of forest volatiles cools global climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 907–910, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2347, 2014.
Valin, H., Sands, R. D., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Nelson, G. C., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Bodirsky, B., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Mason-D'Croz, D., Paltsev, S., Rolinski, S., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., von Lampe, M., and Willenbockel, D.: The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models, Agr. Econ.-Blackwell, 45, 51–67, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12089, 2014.
Val Martin, M., Heald, C. L., Lamarque, J.-F., Tilmes, S., Emmons, L. K., and Schichtel, B. A.: How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, 2015.
van Dijk, A. I. J. M., van Noordwijk, M., CaldeR, I. R., Bruijnzeel, S. L. A., Schellekens, J., and Chappell, N. A.: Forest-flood relation still tenuous – comment on “Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world” by Bradshaw et al., Glob. Change Biol., 15, 110–115, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01708.x, 2009.
van Vliet, J., Bregt, A. K., Brown, D. G., van Delden, H., Heckbert, S., and Verburg, P. H.: A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling, Environ. Modell. Softw., 82, 174–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.017, 2016.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
van Vuuren, D. P., Deetman, S., van Vliet, J., van den Berg, M., van Ruijven, B. J., and Koelbl, B.: The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C-insights from integrated assessment modelling, Climatic Change, 118, 15–27, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0680-5, 2013.
Viglizzo, E. F., Paruelo, J. M., Laterra, P., and Jobbagy, E. G.: Ecosystem service evaluation to support land-use policy, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 154, 78–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.07.007, 2012.
Visconti, P., Pressey, R. L., Giorgini, D., Maiorano, L., Bakkenes, M., Boitani, L., Alkemade, R., Falcucci, A., Chiozza, F., and Rondinini, C.: Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 366, 2693–2702, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0105, 2011.
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe, J.: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): Project framework, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3228–3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2014.
Whitehead, P. G., Wilby, R. L., Battarbee, R. W., Kernan, M., and Wade, A. J.: A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 101–123, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.1.101, 2009.
Wilkinson, S., Mills, G., Illidge, R., and Davies, W. J.: How is ozone pollution reducing our food supply?, J. Exp. Bot., 63, 527–536, https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/err317, 2012.
Williamson, P.: Scrutinize CO2 removal methods, Nature, 530, 153–155, https://doi.org/10.1038/530153a, 2016.
Wiltshire, A. and Davies-Barnard, T.: Planetary limits to BECCS negative emissions, AVOID2 WPD.2a Report 1, available at: http://www.avoid.uk.net/2015/07/planetary-limits-to-beccs-negative-emissions-d2a/ (last access: 27 October 2017), 2015.
Short summary
Many climate change mitigation scenarios require negative emissions from land management. However, environmental side effects are often not considered. Here, we use projections of future land use from two land-use models as input to a vegetation model. We show that carbon removal via bioenergy production or forest maintenance and expansion affect a range of ecosystem functions. Largest impacts are found for crop production, nitrogen losses, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds.
Many climate change mitigation scenarios require negative emissions from land management....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint