Articles | Volume 12, issue 9
Research article 05 May 2015
Research article | 05 May 2015
Modelling coral calcification accounting for the impacts of coral bleaching and ocean acidification
C. Evenhuis et al.
No articles found.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340,Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222,Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470,Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838,Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113,Short summary
Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Duoying Ji, Songsong Fang, Charles L. Curry, Hiroki Kashimura, Shingo Watanabe, Jason N. S. Cole, Andrew Lenton, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10133–10156,Short summary
We examine extreme temperature and precipitation under climate-model-simulated solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering schemes. Both types of geoengineering lead to lower minimum temperatures at higher latitudes and greater cooling of minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures over land compared with oceans. Stratospheric aerosol injection is more effective in reducing tropical extreme precipitation, while solar dimming is more effective over extra-tropical regions.
Andrew Lenton, Richard J. Matear, David P. Keller, Vivian Scott, and Naomi E. Vaughan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 339–357,Short summary
Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and surface warming while also addressing ocean acidification. We simulate the Earth system response to a fixed addition of AOA under low and high emissions. We explore the regional and global response to AOA. A key finding is that AOA is much more effective at reducing warming and ocean acidification under low emissions, despite lower carbon uptake.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160,Short summary
There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Richard J. Matear and Andrew Lenton
Biogeosciences, 15, 1721–1732,Short summary
We show climate–carbon feedbacks accelerate and enhance ocean acidification. Such an acceleration of ocean acidification may further undermine the ability of marine biota to adapt to the changing environment. Our study also identifies the need to use Earth system models to make future ocean acidification projections (relevance to AR6) and the need to reduce the uncertainty in the climate–carbon feedbacks.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448,Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634,Short summary
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Rachel M. Law, Tilo Ziehn, Richard J. Matear, Andrew Lenton, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Lauren E. Stevens, Ying-Ping Wang, Jhan Srbinovsky, Daohua Bi, Hailin Yan, and Peter F. Vohralik
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567–2590,Short summary
The paper describes a version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator that has been enabled to simulate the carbon cycle, which is designated ACCESS-ESM1. The model performance for pre-industrial conditions is assessed and land and ocean carbon fluxes are found to be simulated realistically.
Tilo Ziehn, Andrew Lenton, Rachel M. Law, Richard J. Matear, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2591–2614,Short summary
Our work presents the evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) over the historical period (1850–2005). The main focus is on climate and carbon related variables. Globally integrated land–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere fluxes and flux patterns are well reproduced and show good agreement with most recent observations. This makes ACCESS-ESM1 a useful tool to explore the change in land and oceanic carbon uptake in the future.
Pearse J. Buchanan, Richard J. Matear, Andrew Lenton, Steven J. Phipps, Zanna Chase, and David M. Etheridge
Clim. Past, 12, 2271–2295,Short summary
We quantify the contributions of physical and biogeochemical changes in the ocean to enhancing ocean carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum. We find that simulated circulation and surface conditions cannot explain changes in carbon storage or other major biogeochemical fields that existed during the glacial climate. Key modifications to the functioning of the biological pump are therefore required to explain the glacial climate and improve model–proxy agreement for all fields.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649,Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Andrew Lenton, Bronte Tilbrook, Richard J. Matear, Tristan P. Sasse, and Yukihiro Nojiri
Biogeosciences, 13, 1753–1765,Short summary
We reconstruct the observed variability and mean state in pH and aragonite saturation state around Australia at high spatial resolution and reconstruct the changes that have occurred in the Australian region over the last 140 years. We find that large changes in aragonite saturation state and pH have very different spatial patterns, which suggests that the biological responses to ocean acidification are likely to be non-uniform and dependent on the relative sensitivity of organisms to change.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396,Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
T. P. Sasse, B. I. McNeil, R. J. Matear, and A. Lenton
Biogeosciences, 12, 6017–6031,Short summary
Our results show that accounting for oceanic CO2 seasonality is crucial to projecting the future onset of critical ocean acidification levels (i.e. aragonite undersaturation). In particular, seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by a global average of 17 years. Importantly, widespread undersaturation is projected to occur once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496ppm in the North Pacific and 511ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emissions scenario.
M. C. Nash, S. Uthicke, A. P. Negri, and N. E. Cantin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5247–5260,
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85,Short summary
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014. This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
R. J. Matear, A. Lenton, D. Etheridge, and S. J. Phipps
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Revised manuscript has not been submittedShort summary
Global climate models provide an important tool for simulating the earth's climate. Here we present a simulation of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, which was obtained by setting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the earth's orbital parameters to the 21 000 years before present values. We simulate an ocean behaviour that agrees with paleoclimate reconstructions supporting our ability to model the climate system and use the model to explore the impacts on the carbon cycle.
R. J. Matear and A. Lenton
Biogeosciences, 11, 3965–3983,
M. Ishii, R. A. Feely, K. B. Rodgers, G.-H. Park, R. Wanninkhof, D. Sasano, H. Sugimoto, C. E. Cosca, S. Nakaoka, M. Telszewski, Y. Nojiri, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Niwa, P. K. Patra, V. Valsala, H. Nakano, I. Lima, S. C. Doney, E. T. Buitenhuis, O. Aumont, J. P. Dunne, A. Lenton, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 11, 709–734,
V. V. S. S. Sarma, A. Lenton, R. M. Law, N. Metzl, P. K. Patra, S. Doney, I. D. Lima, E. Dlugokencky, M. Ramonet, and V. Valsala
Biogeosciences, 10, 7035–7052,
A. Lenton, B. Tilbrook, R. M. Law, D. Bakker, S. C. Doney, N. Gruber, M. Ishii, M. Hoppema, N. S. Lovenduski, R. J. Matear, B. I. McNeil, N. Metzl, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, P. M. S. Monteiro, C. Rödenbeck, C. Sweeney, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 10, 4037–4054,
P. R. Oke, D. A. Griffin, A. Schiller, R. J. Matear, R. Fiedler, J. Mansbridge, A. Lenton, M. Cahill, M. A. Chamberlain, and K. Ridgway
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 591–615,
R. Wanninkhof, G. -H. Park, T. Takahashi, C. Sweeney, R. Feely, Y. Nojiri, N. Gruber, S. C. Doney, G. A. McKinley, A. Lenton, C. Le Quéré, C. Heinze, J. Schwinger, H. Graven, and S. Khatiwala
Biogeosciences, 10, 1983–2000,
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, AquaticZooplankton mortality effects on the plankton community of the northern Humboldt Current System: sensitivity of a regional biogeochemical modelMulti-compartment kinetic–allometric (MCKA) model of radionuclide bioaccumulation in marine fishImpact of bottom trawling on sediment biogeochemistry: a modelling approachCyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea: a review of models and factsArctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensembleModeling silicate–nitrate–ammonium co-limitation of algal growth and the importance of bacterial remineralization based on an experimental Arctic coastal spring bloom culture studyRole of jellyfish in the plankton ecosystem revealed using a global ocean biogeochemical modelEvaluation of ocean dimethylsulfide concentration and emission in CMIP6 modelsExtreme event waves in marine ecosystems: an application to Mediterranean Sea surface chlorophyllUse of optical absorption indices to assess seasonal variability of dissolved organic matter in Amazon floodplain lakesThe role of sediment-induced light attenuation on primary production during Hurricane Gustav (2008)Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in zooplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico with a physical–biogeochemical modelOne size fits all? Calibrating an ocean biogeochemistry model for different circulationsAssessing the temporal scale of deep-sea mining impacts on sediment biogeochemistrySeasonal patterns of surface inorganic carbon system variables in the Gulf of Mexico inferred from a regional high-resolution ocean biogeochemical modelOxygen dynamics and evaluation of the single-station diel oxygen model across contrasting geologiesOceanic CO2 outgassing and biological production hotspots induced by pre-industrial river loads of nutrients and carbon in a global modeling approachGlobal trends in marine nitrate N isotopes from observations and a neural network-based climatologyMerging bio-optical data from Biogeochemical-Argo floats and models in marine biogeochemistryModel constraints on the anthropogenic carbon budget of the Arctic OceanModeling oceanic nitrate and nitrite concentrations and isotopes using a 3-D inverse N cycle modelBiogeochemical response of the Mediterranean Sea to the transient SRES-A2 climate change scenarioModelling the biogeochemical effects of heterotrophic and autotrophic N2 fixation in the Gulf of Aqaba (Israel), Red SeaA perturbed biogeochemistry model ensemble evaluated against in situ and satellite observationsDiazotrophy as the main driver of the oligotrophy gradient in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean: results from a one-dimensional biogeochemical–physical coupled modelCauses of simulated long-term changes in phytoplankton biomass in the Baltic proper: a wavelet analysisModelling N2 fixation related to Trichodesmium sp.: driving processes and impacts on primary production in the tropical Pacific OceanLong-term response of oceanic carbon uptake to global warming via physical and biological pumpsSeasonal patterns in phytoplankton biomass across the northern and deep Gulf of Mexico: a numerical model studySea-surface dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration from satellite data at global and regional scalesA new look at the multi-G model for organic carbon degradation in surface marine sediments for coupled benthic–pelagic simulations of the global oceanGroundwater data improve modelling of headwater stream CO2 outgassing with a stable DIC isotope approachThe influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO2 drawdown potential in an Earth system modelModelling potential production of macroalgae farms in UK and Dutch coastal watersAssimilating bio-optical glider data during a phytoplankton bloom in the southern Ross SeaPrimary production sensitivity to phytoplankton light attenuation parameter increases with transient forcingOn the long-range offshore transport of organic carbon from the Canary Upwelling System to the open North AtlanticImproving the inverse modeling of a trace isotope: how precisely can radium-228 fluxes toward the ocean and submarine groundwater discharge be estimated?Implications of sea-ice biogeochemistry for oceanic production and emissions of dimethyl sulfide in the ArcticA numerical analysis of biogeochemical controls with physical modulation on hypoxia during summer in the Pearl River estuaryPotential sources of variability in mesocosm experiments on the response of phytoplankton to ocean acidificationA data–model synthesis to explain variability in calcification observed during a CO2 perturbation mesocosm experimentReviews and syntheses: parameter identification in marine planktonic ecosystem modellingManganese in the west Atlantic Ocean in the context of the first global ocean circulation model of manganeseGrowth of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi in light- and nutrient-limited batch reactors: relevance for the BIOSOPE deep ecological niche of coccolithophoresBiogeochemical fluxes and fate of diazotroph-derived nitrogen in the food web after a phosphate enrichment: modeling of the VAHINE mesocosms experimentMarine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of AlaskaModeling pCO2 variability in the Gulf of MexicoSeasonal variability of the oxygen minimum zone off Peru in a high-resolution regional coupled modelOcean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities
Mariana Hill Cruz, Iris Kriest, Yonss Saranga José, Rainer Kiko, Helena Hauss, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 18, 2891–2916,Short summary
In this study we use a regional biogeochemical model of the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean to implicitly simulate the effect that fluctuations in populations of small pelagic fish, such as anchovy and sardine, may have on the biogeochemistry of the northern Humboldt Current System. To do so, we vary the zooplankton mortality in the model, under the assumption that these fishes eat zooplankton. We also evaluate the model for the first time against mesozooplankton observations.
Roman Bezhenar, Kyeong Ok Kim, Vladimir Maderich, Govert de With, and Kyung Tae Jung
Biogeosciences, 18, 2591–2607,Short summary
A new approach to predicting the accumulation of radionuclides in fish was developed by taking into account heterogeneity of distribution of contamination in the organism and dependence of metabolic process rates on the fish mass. Predicted concentrations of radionuclides in fish agreed well with the laboratory and field measurements. The model with the defined generic parameters could be used in marine environments without local calibration, which is important for emergency decision support.
Emil De Borger, Justin Tiano, Ulrike Braeckman, Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp, and Karline Soetaert
Biogeosciences, 18, 2539–2557,Short summary
Bottom trawling alters benthic mineralization: the recycling of organic material (OM) to free nutrients. To better understand how this occurs, trawling events were added to a model of seafloor OM recycling. Results show that bottom trawling reduces OM and free nutrients in sediments through direct removal thereof and of fauna which transport OM to deeper sediment layers protected from fishing. Our results support temporospatial trawl restrictions to allow key sediment functions to recover.
Britta Munkes, Ulrike Löptien, and Heiner Dietze
Biogeosciences, 18, 2347–2378,Short summary
Cyanobacteria blooms can strongly aggravate eutrophication problems of water bodies. Their controls are, however, not comprehensively understood, which impedes effective management and protection plans. Here we review the current understanding of cyanobacteria blooms. Juxtaposition of respective field and laboratory studies with state-of-the-art mathematical models reveals substantial uncertainty associated with nutrient demands, grazing, and death of cyanobacteria.
Jens Terhaar, Olivier Torres, Timothée Bourgeois, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 18, 2221–2240,Short summary
The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.
Tobias R. Vonnahme, Martial Leroy, Silke Thoms, Dick van Oevelen, H. Rodger Harvey, Svein Kristiansen, Rolf Gradinger, Ulrike Dietrich, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 18, 1719–1747,Short summary
Diatoms are crucial for Arctic coastal spring blooms, and their growth is controlled by nutrients and light. At the end of the bloom, inorganic nitrogen or silicon can be limiting, but nitrogen can be regenerated by bacteria, extending the algal growth phase. Modeling these multi-nutrient dynamics and the role of bacteria is challenging yet crucial for accurate modeling. We recreated spring bloom dynamics in a cultivation experiment and developed a representative dynamic model.
Rebecca M. Wright, Corinne Le Quéré, Erik Buitenhuis, Sophie Pitois, and Mark J. Gibbons
Biogeosciences, 18, 1291–1320,Short summary
Jellyfish have been included in a global ocean biogeochemical model for the first time. The global mean jellyfish biomass in the model is within the observational range. Jellyfish are found to play an important role in the plankton ecosystem, influencing community structure, spatiotemporal dynamics and biomass. The model raises questions about the sensitivity of the zooplankton community to jellyfish mortality and the interactions between macrozooplankton and jellyfish.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Revised manuscript accepted for BGShort summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth System Models over the historical and ssp585 simulations. Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Valeria Di Biagio, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 17, 5967–5988,Short summary
Events that influence the functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems are of interest in relation to a changing climate. We propose a method to identify and characterise
wavesof extreme events affecting marine ecosystems for multi-week periods over wide areas. Our method can be applied to suitable ecosystem variables and has been used to describe different kinds of extreme event waves of phytoplankton chlorophyll in the Mediterranean Sea, by analysing the output from a high-resolution model.
Maria Paula da Silva, Lino A. Sander de Carvalho, Evlyn Novo, Daniel S. F. Jorge, and Claudio C. F. Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 17, 5355–5364,Short summary
In this study, we analyze the seasonal changes in the dissolved organic matter (DOM) quality (based on its optical properties) in four Amazon floodplain lakes. DOM plays a fundamental role in surface water chemistry, controlling metal bioavailability and mobility, and nutrient cycling. The model proposed in our paper highlights the potential to study DOM quality at a wider spatial scale, which may help to better understand the persistence and fate of DOM in the ecosystem.
Zhengchen Zang, Z. George Xue, Kehui Xu, Samuel J. Bentley, Qin Chen, Eurico J. D'Sa, Le Zhang, and Yanda Ou
Biogeosciences, 17, 5043–5055,
Taylor A. Shropshire, Steven L. Morey, Eric P. Chassignet, Alexandra Bozec, Victoria J. Coles, Michael R. Landry, Rasmus Swalethorp, Glenn Zapfe, and Michael R. Stukel
Biogeosciences, 17, 3385–3407,Short summary
Zooplankton are the smallest animals in the ocean and important food for fish. Despite their importance, zooplankton have been relatively undersampled. To better understand the zooplankton community in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), we developed a model to simulate their dynamics. We found that heterotrophic protists are important for supporting mesozooplankton, which are the primary prey of larval fish. The model developed in this study has the potential to improve fisheries management in the GoM.
Iris Kriest, Paul Kähler, Wolfgang Koeve, Karin Kvale, Volkmar Sauerland, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 17, 3057–3082,Short summary
Constants of global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned
by handto match observations of nutrients or oxygen. We investigate the effect of this tuning by optimising six constants of a global biogeochemical model, simulated in five different offline circulations. Optimal values for three constants adjust to distinct features of the circulation applied and can afterwards be swapped among the circulations, without losing too much of the model's fit to observed quantities.
Laura Haffert, Matthias Haeckel, Henko de Stigter, and Felix Janssen
Biogeosciences, 17, 2767–2789,Short summary
Deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules is expected to have severe environmental impacts. Through prognostic modelling, this study aims to provide a holistic assessment of the biogeochemical recovery after a disturbance event. It was found that the recovery strongly depends on the impact type; e.g. complete removal of the surface sediment reduces seafloor nutrient fluxes over centuries.
Fabian A. Gomez, Rik Wanninkhof, Leticia Barbero, Sang-Ki Lee, and Frank J. Hernandez Jr.
Biogeosciences, 17, 1685–1700,Short summary
We use a numerical model to infer annual changes of surface carbon chemistry in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The main seasonality drivers of partial pressure of carbon dioxide and aragonite saturation state from the model are temperature and river runoff. The GoM basin is a carbon sink in winter–spring and carbon source in summer–fall, but uptake prevails near the Mississippi Delta year-round due to high biological production. Our model results show good correspondence with observational studies.
Simon J. Parker
Biogeosciences, 17, 305–315,Short summary
Dissolved oxygen (DO) models typically assume constant ecosystem respiration over the course of a single day. Using a data-driven approach, this research examines this assumption in four streams across two (hydro-)geological types (Chalk and Greensand). Despite hydrogeological equivalence in terms of baseflow index for each hydrogeological pairing, model suitability differed within, rather than across, geology types. This corresponded with associated differences in timings of DO minima.
Fabrice Lacroix, Tatiana Ilyina, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 17, 55–88,Short summary
Contributions of rivers to the oceanic cycling of carbon have been poorly represented in global models until now. Here, we assess the long–term implications of preindustrial riverine loads in the ocean in a novel framework which estimates the loads through a hierarchy of weathering and land–ocean export models. We investigate their impacts for the oceanic biological production and air–sea carbon flux. Finally, we assess the potential incorporation of the framework in an Earth system model.
Patrick A. Rafter, Aaron Bagnell, Dario Marconi, and Timothy DeVries
Biogeosciences, 16, 2617–2633,Short summary
The N isotopic composition of nitrate (
nitrate δ15N) is a useful tracer of ocean N cycling and many other ocean processes. Here, we use a global compilation of marine nitrate δ15N as an input, training, and validating dataset for an artificial neural network (a.k.a.,
machine learning) and examine basin-scale trends in marine nitrate δ15N from the surface to the seafloor.
Elena Terzić, Paolo Lazzari, Emanuele Organelli, Cosimo Solidoro, Stefano Salon, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, and Pascal Conan
Biogeosciences, 16, 2527–2542,Short summary
Measuring ecosystem properties in the ocean is a hard business. Recent availability of data from Biogeochemical-Argo floats can help make this task easier. Numerical models can integrate these new data in a coherent picture and can be used to investigate the functioning of ecosystem processes. Our new approach merges experimental information and model capabilities to quantitatively demonstrate the importance of light and water vertical mixing for algae dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea.
Jens Terhaar, James C. Orr, Marion Gehlen, Christian Ethé, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 2343–2367,Short summary
A budget of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean, the main driver of open-ocean acidification, was constructed for the first time using a high-resolution ocean model. The budget reveals that anthropogenic carbon enters the Arctic Ocean mainly by lateral transport; the air–sea flux plays a minor role. Coarser-resolution versions of the same model, typical of earth system models, store less anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean and thus underestimate ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean.
Taylor S. Martin, François Primeau, and Karen L. Casciotti
Biogeosciences, 16, 347–367,Short summary
Nitrite is a key intermediate in many nitrogen (N) cycling processes in the ocean, particularly in areas with low oxygen that are hotspots for N loss. We have created a 3-D global N cycle model with nitrite as a tracer. Stable isotopes of N are also included in the model and we are able to model the isotope fractionation associated with each N cycling process. Our model accurately represents N concentrations and isotope distributions in the ocean.
Camille Richon, Jean-Claude Dutay, Laurent Bopp, Briac Le Vu, James C. Orr, Samuel Somot, and François Dulac
Biogeosciences, 16, 135–165,Short summary
We evaluate the effects of climate change and biogeochemical forcing evolution on the nutrient and plankton cycles of the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. We use a high-resolution coupled physical and biogeochemical model and perform 120-year transient simulations. The results indicate that changes in external nutrient fluxes and climate change may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on nutrient concentrations, depending on the region and the scenario.
Angela M. Kuhn, Katja Fennel, and Ilana Berman-Frank
Biogeosciences, 15, 7379–7401,Short summary
Recent studies demonstrate that marine N2 fixation can be carried out without light. However, direct measurements of N2 fixation in dark environments are relatively scarce. This study uses a model that represents biogeochemical cycles at a deep-ocean location in the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea). Different model versions are used to test assumptions about N2 fixers. Relaxing light limitation for marine N2 fixers improved the similarity between model results and observations of deep nitrate and oxygen.
Prima Anugerahanti, Shovonlal Roy, and Keith Haines
Biogeosciences, 15, 6685–6711,Short summary
Minor changes in the biogeochemical model equations lead to major dynamical changes. We assessed this structural sensitivity for the MEDUSA biogeochemical model on chlorophyll and nitrogen concentrations at five oceanographic stations over 10 years, using 1-D ensembles generated by combining different process equations. The ensemble performed better than the default model in most of the stations, suggesting that our approach is useful for generating a probabilistic biogeochemical ensemble model.
Audrey Gimenez, Melika Baklouti, Thibaut Wagener, and Thierry Moutin
Biogeosciences, 15, 6573–6589,Short summary
During the OUTPACE cruise conducted in the oligotrophic to ultra-oligotrophic region of the western tropical South Pacific, two contrasted regions were sampled in terms of N2 fixation rates, primary production rates and nutrient availability. The aim of this work was to investigate the role of N2 fixation in the differences observed between the two contrasted areas by comparing two simulations only differing by the presence or not of N2 fixers using a 1-D biogeochemical–physical coupled model.
Jenny Hieronymus, Kari Eilola, Magnus Hieronymus, H. E. Markus Meier, Sofia Saraiva, and Bengt Karlson
Biogeosciences, 15, 5113–5129,Short summary
This paper investigates how phytoplankton concentrations in the Baltic Sea co-vary with nutrient concentrations and other key variables on inter-annual timescales in a model integration over the years 1850–2008. The study area is not only affected by climate change; it has also been subjected to greatly increased nutrient loads due to extensive use of agricultural fertilizers. The results indicate the largest inter-annual coherence of phytoplankton with the limiting nutrient.
Cyril Dutheil, Olivier Aumont, Thomas Gorguès, Anne Lorrain, Sophie Bonnet, Martine Rodier, Cécile Dupouy, Takuhei Shiozaki, and Christophe Menkes
Biogeosciences, 15, 4333–4352,Short summary
N2 fixation is recognized as one of the major sources of nitrogen in the ocean. Thus, N2 fixation sustains a significant part of the primary production (PP) by supplying the most common limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth. From numerical simulations, the local maximums of Trichodesmium biomass in the Pacific are found around islands, explained by the iron fluxes from island sediments. We assessed that 15 % of the PP may be due to Trichodesmium in the low-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas.
Akitomo Yamamoto, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 15, 4163–4180,Short summary
Millennial-scale changes in oceanic CO2 uptake due to global warming are simulated by a GCM and offline biogeochemical model. Sensitivity studies show that decreases in oceanic CO2 uptake are mainly caused by a weaker biological pump and seawater warming. Enhanced CO2 uptake due to weaker equatorial upwelling cancels out reduced CO2 uptake due to weaker AMOC and AABW formation. Thus, circulation change plays only a small direct role in reduction of CO2 uptake due to global warming.
Fabian A. Gomez, Sang-Ki Lee, Yanyun Liu, Frank J. Hernandez Jr., Frank E. Muller-Karger, and John T. Lamkin
Biogeosciences, 15, 3561–3576,Short summary
Seasonal patterns in nanophytoplankton and diatom biomass in the Gulf of Mexico were examined with an ocean–biogeochemical model. We found silica limitation of model diatom growth in the deep GoM and Mississippi delta. Zooplankton grazing and both transport and vertical mixing of biomass substantially influence the model phytoplankton biomass seasonality. We stress the need for integrated analyses of biologically and physically driven biomass fluxes to describe phytoplankton seasonal changes.
Martí Galí, Maurice Levasseur, Emmanuel Devred, Rafel Simó, and Marcel Babin
Biogeosciences, 15, 3497–3519,Short summary
We developed a new algorithm to estimate the sea-surface concentration of dimethylsulfide (DMS) using satellite data. DMS is a gas produced by marine plankton that, once emitted to the atmosphere, plays a key climatic role by seeding cloud formation. We used the algorithm to produce global DMS maps and also regional DMS time series. The latter suggest that DMS can vary largely from one year to another, which should be taken into account in atmospheric studies.
Konstantin Stolpovsky, Andrew W. Dale, and Klaus Wallmann
Biogeosciences, 15, 3391–3407,Short summary
The paper describes a new way to parameterize G-type models in marine sediments using data about reactivity of organic carbon sinking to the seafloor.
Anne Marx, Marcus Conrad, Vadym Aizinger, Alexander Prechtel, Robert van Geldern, and Johannes A. C. Barth
Biogeosciences, 15, 3093–3106,Short summary
CO2 outgassing from small streams causes one of the main uncertainties in global carbon budgets. These are caused by variable flow conditions, changing stream surface areas, and groundwater seeps. Here we used groundwater data to improve a novel stable carbon isotope modelling approach. We found that CO2 outgassing contributed more than three-fourths of annual stream inorganic carbon loss in a small, silicate catchment. We underline the potential of this approach for global applications.
Malin Ödalen, Jonas Nycander, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Laurent Brodeau, and Andy Ridgwell
Biogeosciences, 15, 1367–1393,Short summary
We conclude that different initial states for an ocean model result in different capacities for ocean carbon storage due to differences in the ocean circulation state and the origin of the carbon in the initial ocean carbon reservoir. This could explain why it is difficult to achieve comparable responses of the ocean carbon system in model inter-comparison studies in which the initial states vary between models. We show that this effect of the initial state is quantifiable.
Johan van der Molen, Piet Ruardij, Karen Mooney, Philip Kerrison, Nessa E. O'Connor, Emma Gorman, Klaas Timmermans, Serena Wright, Maeve Kelly, Adam D. Hughes, and Elisa Capuzzo
Biogeosciences, 15, 1123–1147,Short summary
Macroalgae farming may provide biofuel. Modelled macroalgae production is given for four sites in UK and Dutch waters. Macroalgae growth depended on nutrient concentrations and light levels. Macroalgae carbohydrate content, important for biofuel use, was lower for high nutrient concentrations. The hypothetical large-scale farm off the UK north Norfolk coast gave high, stable yields of macroalgae from year to year with substantial carbohydrate content.
Daniel E. Kaufman, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, John C. P. Hemmings, and Walker O. Smith Jr.
Biogeosciences, 15, 73–90,Short summary
Computer simulations of the highly variable phytoplankton in the Ross Sea demonstrated how incorporating data from different sources (satellite, ship, or glider) results in different system interpretations. For example, simulations assimilating satellite-based data produced lower carbon export estimates. Combining observations with models in this remote, harsh, and biologically variable environment should include consideration of the potential impacts of data frequency, duration, and coverage.
Karin F. Kvale and Katrin J. Meissner
Biogeosciences, 14, 4767–4780,Short summary
Climate models containing ocean biogeochemistry contain a lot of poorly constrained parameters, which makes model tuning difficult. For more than 20 years modellers have generally assumed phytoplankton light attenuation parameter value choice has an insignificant affect on model ocean primary production; thus, it is often overlooked for tuning. We show that an empirical range of light attenuation parameter values can affect primary production, with increasing sensitivity under climate change.
Elisa Lovecchio, Nicolas Gruber, Matthias Münnich, and Zouhair Lachkar
Biogeosciences, 14, 3337–3369,Short summary
We find that a big portion of the phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detrital organic matter produced near the northern African coast is laterally transported towards the open North Atlantic. This offshore flux sustains a relevant part of the biological activity in the open sea and reaches as far as the middle of the North Atlantic. Our results, obtained with a state-of-the-art model, highlight the fundamental role of the narrow but productive coastal ocean in sustaining global marine life.
Guillaume Le Gland, Laurent Mémery, Olivier Aumont, and Laure Resplandy
Biogeosciences, 14, 3171–3189,Short summary
In this study, we computed the fluxes of radium-228 from the continental shelf to the open ocean by fitting a numerical model to observations. After determining appropriate model parameters (cost function and number of source regions), we found a lower and more precise global flux than previous estimates: 8.01–8.49×1023 atoms yr−1. This result can be used to assess nutrient and trace element fluxes to the open ocean, but we cannot identify specific pathways like submarine groundwater discharge.
Hakase Hayashida, Nadja Steiner, Adam Monahan, Virginie Galindo, Martine Lizotte, and Maurice Levasseur
Biogeosciences, 14, 3129–3155,Short summary
In remote regions, cloud conditions may be strongly influenced by oceanic source of dimethylsulfide (DMS) produced by plankton and bacteria. In the Arctic, sea ice provides an additional source of these aerosols. The results of this study highlight the importance of taking into account both the sea-ice sulfur cycle and ecosystem in the flux estimates of oceanic DMS near the ice margins and identify key uncertainties in processes and rates that would be better constrained by new observations.
Bin Wang, Jiatang Hu, Shiyu Li, and Dehong Liu
Biogeosciences, 14, 2979–2999,Short summary
We proposed a novel method named the physical modulation method to quantify the contributions of boundary conditions, the source and sink processes occurring in local and adjacent waters to DO conditions. A mass balance analysis of DO based on the physical modulation method indicated that the DO conditions were mainly controlled by source and sink processes, among which the sediment oxygen demand and re-aeration were two main processes controlling the spatial extent and the duration of hypoxia.
Maria Moreno de Castro, Markus Schartau, and Kai Wirtz
Biogeosciences, 14, 1883–1901,Short summary
Observations from different mesocosms exposed to the same treatment level typically show variability that hinders the detection of potential treatments effects. To unearth relevant sources of variability, we developed and performed a data-based model analysis that simulates uncertainty propagation. With this method we investigate the divergence in the outcomes due to the amplification of differences in experimentally unresolved ecological factors within replicates of the same treatment level.
Shubham Krishna and Markus Schartau
Biogeosciences, 14, 1857–1882,Short summary
This study combines experimental data with results from numerical modelling. Data of an ocean acidification mesocosm experiment are used to constrain parameter values of a plankton model. Three different intensities of calcification are resolved with ensembles of optimised model results. Observed variability in data can be well explained by these ensemble model solutions. The simulated ocean acidification effect on calcification is small compared to the spread of the ensemble model solutions.
Markus Schartau, Philip Wallhead, John Hemmings, Ulrike Löptien, Iris Kriest, Shubham Krishna, Ben A. Ward, Thomas Slawig, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1647–1701,Short summary
Plankton models have become an integral part in marine ecosystem and biogeochemical research. These models differ in complexity and in their number of parameters. How values are assigned to parameters is essential. An overview of major methodologies of parameter estimation is provided. Aspects of parameter identification in the literature are diverse. Individual findings could be better synthesized if notation and expertise of the different scientific communities would be reasonably merged.
Marco van Hulten, Rob Middag, Jean-Claude Dutay, Hein de Baar, Matthieu Roy-Barman, Marion Gehlen, Alessandro Tagliabue, and Andreas Sterl
Biogeosciences, 14, 1123–1152,Short summary
We ran a global ocean model to understand manganese (Mn), a biologically essential element. Our model shows that (i) in the deep ocean, dissolved [Mn] is mostly homogeneous ~0.10—0.15 nM. The model reproduces this with a threshold on MnO2 of 25 pM, suggesting a minimal particle concentration is needed before aggregation and removal become efficient. (ii) The observed distinct hydrothermal signals are produced by assuming both a strong source and a strong removal of Mn near hydrothermal vents.
Laura Perrin, Ian Probert, Gerald Langer, and Giovanni Aloisi
Biogeosciences, 13, 5983–6001,Short summary
Coccolithophores are calcifying marine algae that play an important role in the oceanic carbon cycle. Deep niches of coccolithophores exist in the ocean and are poorly understood. Laboratory cultures with the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi were carried out to reproduce the environmental conditions (light–nutrient limitation) of a deep niche in the South Pacific Ocean. Physiological modelling of experimental results allows us to estimate the growth rates of coccolithophores in this niche.
Audrey Gimenez, Melika Baklouti, Sophie Bonnet, and Thierry Moutin
Biogeosciences, 13, 5103–5120,Short summary
In the context of the VAHINE mesocosm experiment in the Nouméa lagoon (New Caledonia), a 1-D vertical biogeochemical mechanistic model was used together with the in situ experiment to complement our comprehension of the planktonic ecosystem dynamics and the main biogeochemical carbon, nitrogen and phosphate fluxes. The model also showed the fate of fixed N2 by providing, over time, the proportion of diazotroph-derived nitrogen (DDN) in each compartment (mineral and organic) of the model.
Claudie Beaulieu, Harriet Cole, Stephanie Henson, Andrew Yool, Thomas R. Anderson, Lee de Mora, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Momme Butenschön, Ian J. Totterdell, and J. Icarus Allen
Biogeosciences, 13, 4533–4553,Short summary
Regime shifts have been suggested in the late 1970s and late 1980s in the Gulf of Alaska with important consequences for fisheries. Here we investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemical models of varying complexity to simulate these regime shifts. Our results demonstrate that ocean models can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby improving our understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels.
Zuo Xue, Ruoying He, Katja Fennel, Wei-Jun Cai, Steven Lohrenz, Wei-Jen Huang, Hanqin Tian, Wei Ren, and Zhengchen Zang
Biogeosciences, 13, 4359–4377,Short summary
In this study we used a state-of-the-science coupled physical–biogeochemical model to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of sea surface CO2 concentration in the Gulf of Mexico. Our model revealed the Gulf was a net CO2 sink with a flux of 1.11 ± 0.84 × 1012 mol C yr−1. We also found that biological uptake was the primary driver making the Gulf an overall CO2 sink and that the carbon flux in the northern Gulf was very susceptible to changes in river inputs.
Oscar Vergara, Boris Dewitte, Ivonne Montes, Veronique Garçon, Marcel Ramos, Aurélien Paulmier, and Oscar Pizarro
Biogeosciences, 13, 4389–4410,Short summary
The Southeast Pacific hosts one of the most extensive oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), yet the dynamics behind it remain unveiled. We use a high-resolution coupled physical–biogeochemical model to document the seasonal cycle of dissolved oxygen within the OMZ in both the coastal zone and the offshore ocean. The OMZ seasonal variability is driven by the seasonal fluctuations of the dissolved oxygen eddy flux, with a peak in Austral winter (fall) at the northern (southern) boundary and near the coast.
Corinne A. Hartin, Benjamin Bond-Lamberty, Pralit Patel, and Anupriya Mundra
Biogeosciences, 13, 4329–4342,
Adjeroud, M., Michonneau, F., Edmunds, P. J., Chancerelle, Y., Loma, T. L., Penin, L., Thibaut, L., Vidal-Dupiol, J., Salvat, B., and Galzin, R.: Recurrent disturbances, recovery trajectories, and resilience of coral assemblages on a South Central Pacific reef, Coral Reefs, 28, 775–780, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-009-0515-7, 2009.
Albright, R., Mason, B., and Langdon, C.: Effect of aragonite saturation state on settlement and post-settlement growth of Porites astreoides larvae, Coral Reefs, 27, 485–490, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-008-0392-5, 2008.
Al-Horani, F. A.: Effects of changing seawater temperature on photosynthesis and calcification in the scleractinian coral Galaxea fascicularis, measured with O2, Ca2+ and pH microsensors, Sci. Mar., 69, 347–354, 2005.
Andersson, A. J. and Gledhill, D.: Ocean acidification and coral reefs: effects on breakdown, dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 5, 321–348, \https://doi.org/10.1146/Annurev-Marine-121211-172241, 2013.
Andersson, A. J., Kuffner, I. B., Mackenzie, F. T., Jokiel, P. L., Rodgers, K. S., and Tan, A.: Net Loss of CaCO3 from a subtropical calcifying community due to seawater acidification: mesocosm-scale experimental evidence, Biogeosciences, 6, 1811–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-1811-2009, 2009.
Anthony, K. R. N. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.: Variation in coral photosynthesis, respiration and growth characteristics in contrasting light microhabitats: an analogue to plants in forest gaps and understoreys?, Funct. Ecol., 17, 246–259, 2003a.
Anthony, K. R. N. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.: Kinetics of photoacclimation in corals, Oecologia, 134, 23–31, 2003b.
Anthony, K. R. N., Hoogenboom, M. O., Maynard, J. A., Grottoli, A. G., and Middlebrook, R.: Energetics approach to predicting mortality risk from environmental stress: a case study of coral bleaching, Funct. Ecol., 23, 539–550, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2008.01531.x, 2009.
Baird, A. H. and Marshall, P. A.: Mortality, growth and reproduction in scleractinian corals following bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 237, 133–141, https://doi.org/10.3354/Meps237133, 2002.
Baird, A. H., Bhagooli, R., Ralph, P. J., and Takahashi, S.: Coral bleaching: the role of the host, Trends Ecol. Evol., 24, 16–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2008.09.005, 2009.
Baker, A. C., Glynn, P. W., and Riegl, B.: Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 80, 435–471, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2008.09.003, 2008.
Baker, P. A. and Weber, J. N.: Coral growth rate: variation with depth, Phys. Earth Planet. In., 10, 135–139, 1975.
Berkelmans, R. and Oliver, J. K.: Large-scale bleaching of corals on the Great Barrier Reef, Coral Reefs 18, 55–60, 1999.
Berkelmans, R., De'ath, G., Kininmonth, S., and Skirving, W. J.: A comparison of the 1998 and 2002 coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef: spatial correlation, patterns, and predictions, Coral Reefs, 23, 74–83, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-003-0353-y, 2004.
Broecker, W. S., Langdon, C., Takahashi, T., and Peng, T.-H.: Factors controlling the rate of CaCO3 precipitation on Great Bahama Bank, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 589–596, \https://doi.org/10.1029/2000gb001350, 2001.
Brown, B. E. and Suharsono: Damage and recovery of coral reefs affected by El-Niño related seawater warming in the Thousand Islands, Indonesia, Coral Reefs, 8, 163–170, https://doi.org/10.1007/Bf00265007, 1990.
Brown, J. H., Gillooly, J. F., Allen, A. P., Savage, V. M., and West, G. B.: Toward a metabolic theory of ecology, Ecology, 85, 1711–1789, 2004.
Buddemeier, R. W. and Fautin, D. G.: Coral bleaching as an adaptive mechanism, BioScience 43, 320–326, 1993.
Buddemeier, R. W., Jokiel, P. L., Zimmerman, K. M., Lane, D. R., Carey, J. M., Bohling, G. C., and Martinich, J. A.: A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry, Limnol. Oceanogr.-Methods, 6, 395–411, 2008.
Burke, L., Reytar, K., Spalding, M., and Perry, A.: Reefs at risk revisited, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA, 130 pp., 2011.
Cantin, N. E. and Lough, J. M. Surviving coral bleaching events: Porites growth anomalies on the Great Barrier Reef, PLoS ONE, 9, e88720, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088720, 2014.
Cantin, N. E., Cohen, A. L., Karnauskas, K. B., Tarrant, A. M., and McCorkle, D. C.: Ocean warming slows coral growth in the central Red Sea, Science, 329, 322–325, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1190182, 2010.
Carilli, J. E., Norris, R. D., Black, B. A., Walsh, S. M., and McField, M.: Local stressors reduce coral resilience to bleaching, PLoS ONE, 4, e6324, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006324, 2009.
Ceccarelli, D. M., Richards, Z. T., Pratchett, M. S., and Cvitanovic, C.: Rapid increase in coral cover on an isolated coral reef, the Ashmore Reef National Nature Reserve, north-western Australia, Mar. Freshwater Res., 62, 1214–1220, https://doi.org/10.1071/mf11013, 2011.
Chalker, B., Dunlap, W., and Oliver, J.: Bathymetric adaptations of reef-building corals at Davies Reef, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. II. Light saturation curves for photosynthesis and respiration, J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 73, 37–56, 1983.
Chan, N. C. S. and Connolly, S. R.: Sensitivity of coral calcification to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis, Glob. Change Biol., 19, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1111/Gcb.12011, 2013.
Coles, S. L. and Brown, B. E.: Coral bleaching – Capacity for acclimatization and adaptation, Adv. Mar. Biol., 46, 183–223, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2881(03)46004-5, 2003.
Coles, S. L. and Brown, E. K.: Twenty-five years of change in coral coverage on a hurricane impacted reef in Hawai`i: the importance of recruitment, Coral Reefs, 26, 705–717, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-007-0257-3, 2007.
Cooper, T. F., De'ath, G., Fabricius, K. E., and Lough, J. M.: Declining coral calcification in massive Porites in two nearshore regions of the northern Great Barrier Reef, Glob. Change Biol. 14, 529–538, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01520.x, 2008.
Cooper, T. F., O'Leary, R. A., and Lough, J. M.: Growth of Western Australian corals in the anthropocene, Science, 335, 593–596, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1214570, 2012.
Dell, A. I., Pawar, S., and Savage, V. M.: Systematic variation in the temperature dependence of physiological and ecological traits, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 10591–10596, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1015178108, 2011.
de Putron, S. J., McCorkle, D. C., Cohen, A. L., and Dillon, A. B.: The impact of seawater saturation state and bicarbonate ion concentration on calcification by new recruits of two Atlantic corals, Coral Reefs, 30, 321–328, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00338-010-0697-Z, 2011.
Diaz-Pulido, G., McCook, L. J., Dove, S., Berkelmans, R., Roff, G., Kline, D. I., Weeks, S., Evans, R. D., Williamson, D. H., and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.: Doom and boom on a resilient reef: climate change, algal overgrowth and coral recovery, PLoS One, 4, e5239, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005239, 2009.
Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A., and Kleypas, J. A.: Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 1, 169–192, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834, 2009.
Donner, S. D.: Coping with commitment: Projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios, PLos ONE, 4, e5712, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712, 2009.
Donner, S. D.: An evaluation of the effect of recent temperature variability on the prediction of coral bleaching events, Ecol. Appl., 21, 1718–1730, 2011.
Donner, S. D., Skirving, W. J., Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M., and Hoegh-Guldberg, O. V. E.: Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change, Glob. Change Biol., 11, 2251–2265, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01073.x, 2005.
Dubinsky, Z., Falkowski, P., Porter, J., and Muscatine, L.: Absorption and utilization of radiant energy by light-and shade-adapted colonies of the hermatypic coral Stylophora pistillata, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. B Bio., 222, 203–214, 1984.
Edinger, E. N., Limmon, G. V., Jompa, J., Widjatmoko, W., Heikoop, J. M., and Risk, M. J.: Normal coral growth rates on dying reefs: Are coral growth rates good indicators of reef health?, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 40, 404–425, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-326x(99)00237-4, 2000.
Edmunds, P. J.: The effect of sub-lethal increases in temperature on the growth and population trajectories of three scleractinian corals on the southern Great Barrier Reef, Oecologia, 146, 350–364, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-005-0210-5, 2005.
Edmunds, P. J.: Differential effects of high temperature on the respiration of juvenile Caribbean Corals, Bull. Mar. Sci., 83, 453–464, 2008.
Erez, J., Reynaud, S., Silverman, J., Schneider, K., and Allemand, D.: Coral calcification under ocean acidification and global change, Coral Reefs, 151–176, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0114-4_10, 2011.
Fabricius, K. E., Langdon, C., Uthicke, S., Humphrey, C., Noonan, S., De'ath, G., Okazaki, R., Muehllehner, N., Glas, M. S., and Lough, J. M.: Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations, Nature Climate Change, 1, 165–169, https://doi.org/20.1038/nclimate1122, 2011.
Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Golly, A., Mengel, M., Lebek, K., Donner, S. D., and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.: Limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius is unlikely to save most coral reefs, Nature Climate Change, 3, 165–170, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1674, 2013.
Gattuso, J. P., Frankignoulle, M., Bourge, I., Romaine, S., and Buddemeier, R. W.: Effect of calcium carbonate saturation of seawater on coral calcification, Global Planet. Change, 18, 37–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(98)00035-6, 1998.
Geider, R., MacIntyre, H., and Kana, T.: Dynamic model of phytoplankton growth and acclimation: responses of the balanced growth rate and the chlorophyll a: carbon ratio to light, nutrient-limitation and temperature, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser. 148, 187–200, 1997.
Gilchrist, G. W.: Specialists and generalists in changing environments .1. fitness landscapes of thermal sensitivity, Am. Nat., 146, 252–270, https://doi.org/10.1086/285797, 1995.
Guinotte, J. M., Buddemeier, R. W., and Kleypas, J. A.: Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin, Coral Reefs, 22, 551–558, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-003-0331-4, 2003.
Gustafsson, M. S., Baird, M. E., and Ralph, P. J.: The interchangeability of autotrophic and heterotrophic nitrogen sources in Scleractinian coral symbiotic relationships: A numerical study, Ecol. Model., 250, 183–194, 2013.
Halford, A. R. and Caley, M. J.: Towards an understanding of resilience in isolated coral reefs, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 3031–3045, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01972.x, 2009.
Hennige, S. J., Smith, D. J., Perkins, R., Consalvey, M., Paterson, D. M., and Suggett, D. J.: Photoacclimation, growth and distribution of massive coral species in clear and turbid waters, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 369, 77–88, 2008.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P. J., Hooten, A. J., Steneck, R. S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, C. D., Sale, P. F., Edwards, A. J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C. M., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R. H., Dubi, A., and Hatziolos, M. E.: Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification, Science, 318, 1737–1742, https://doi.org/10.1126/Science.1152509, 2007.
Hoeke, R. K., Jokiel, P. L., Buddemeier, R. W., and Brainard, R. E.: Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years, Plos One, 6, e18038, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0018038, 2011.
Holcomb, M., Cohen, A. L., and McCorkle, D. C.: An investigation of the calcification response of the scleractinian coral Astrangia poculata to elevated pCO2 and the effects of nutrients, zooxanthellae and gender, Biogeosciences, 9, 29–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-29-2012, 2012.
Houlbreque, F. and Ferrier-Pages, C.: Heterotrophy in tropical scleractinian corals, Biol. Rev. Camb. Philos., 84, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-185X.2008.00058.x, 2009.
Howells, E., Berkelmans, R., Van Oppen, M., Willis, B. L., and Bay, L.: Historical thermal regimes define limits to coral acclimatisation, Ecology, 94, 1078–1088, https://doi.org/10.1890/12-1257.1, 2013.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, 2014.
Jokiel, P: The reef coral two compartment proton flux model A new approach relating tissue-level physiological processes to gross corallum morphology, J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 409, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2011.10.008, 2011.
Jokiel, P. L. and Coles, S. L.: Effects of temperature on mortality and growth of Hawaiian reef corals, Mar. Biol., 43, 201–208, https://doi.org/10.1007/Bf00402312, 1977.
Jokiel, P. L. and Guinther, E. B.: Effects of temperature on reproduction in the hermatypic coral Pocillopora damicornis, B. Mar. Sci., 28, 786–789, 1978.
Jokiel, P. L., Jury, C. P., and Rodgers, K. S.: Coral-algae metabolism and diurnal changes in the CO2-carbonate system of bulk sea water, PeerJ, 2, e378, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.378, 2014.
Jones, R. J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Larkum, A. W. D., and Schreiber, U.: Temperature-induced bleaching of corals begins with impairment of the CO2 fixation mechanism in zooxanthellae, Plant Cell Environ., 21, 1219–1230, https://doi.org/10.1046/J.1365-3040.1998.00345.X, 1998.
Key, R. M., Kozyr, A., Sabine, C. L., Lee, K., Wanninkhof, R., Bullister, J., Feely, R. A., Millero, F., Mordy, C., and Peng, T.-H.: A global ocean carbon climatology: Results from Global Data Analysis Project (GLODAP), Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002247, 2004.
Kinzie III, R. A., Takayama, M, Santos, S. R. and Coffroth, M. A.: The adaptive bleaching hypothesis: Experimental tests of Critical Assumptions, Biol. Bull., 200, 51–58, 2001.
Kleypas, J. A. and Langdon, C.: Coral reefs and changing seawater carbonate chemistry, Coast. Estuar. Stud., 61, 73–110, 2006.
Kleypas, J. A, McManus, J. W., and Meñez, L. A. B.: Environmental Limits to Coral Reef Development: Where Do We Draw the Line?, Amer. Zool., 39, 146–159, https://doi.org/10.1093/icb/39.1.146, 1999.
Kuffner, I. B., Andersson, A. J., Jokiel, P. L., Rodgers, K. S., and Mackenzie, F. T.: Decreased abundance of crustose coralline algae due to ocean acidification, Nat. Geosci., 1, 114–117, 2008.
Langdon, C.: Effect of elevated pCO2 on photosynthesis and calcification of corals and interactions with seasonal change in temperature/irradiance and nutrient enrichment, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C09S07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002576, 2005.
Leclercq, N., Gattuso, J. P., and Jaubert, J.: CO2 partial pressure controls the calcification rate of a coral community, Glob. Change Biol., 6, 329–334, https://doi.org/10.1046/J.1365-2486.2000.00315.X, 2000.
Leclercq, N., Gattuso, J. P., and Jaubert, J.: Primary production, respiration, and calcification of a coral reef mesocosm under increased CO2 partial pressure, Limnol. Oceanogr., 47, 558–564, 2002.
Lima, F. P. and Wethey, D. S.: Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming, Nat. Commun., 3, 704, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1713, 2012.
Le Quéré, C., Andres, R. J., Boden, T., Conway, T., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Marland, G., Peters, G. P., van der Werf, G. R., Ahlström, A., Andrew, R. M., Bopp, L., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Doney, S. C., Enright, C., Friedlingstein, P., Huntingford, C., Jain, A. K., Jourdain, C., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Levis, S., Levy, P., Lomas, M., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Schwinger, J., Sitch, S., Stocker, B. D., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.: The global carbon budget 1959–2011, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013.
Lough, J. and Barnes, D.: Several centuries of variation in skeletal extension, density and calcification in massive Porites colonies from the Great Barrier Reef: A proxy for seawater temperature and a background of variability against which to identify unnatural change, J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 211, 29–67, 1997.
Lough, J. and Barnes, D.: Environmental controls on growth of the massive coral Porites, J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 245, 225–243, 2000.
Lough, J. M.: Coral calcification from skeletal records revisited, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 373, 257–264, https://doi.org/10.3354/Meps07398, 2008.
Lough, J. M.: Small change, big difference: sea surface temperature distributions for tropical coral reef ecosystems, 1950–2011, J Geophys. Res., 117, C09018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008199, 2012.
Marshall, P. and Baird, A.: Bleaching of corals on the Great Barrier Reef: differential susceptibilities among taxa, Coral Reefs, 19, 155–163, 2000.
Marshall, A. T. and Clode, P.: Calcification rate and the effect of temperature in a zooxanthellate and an azooxanthellate scleractinian reef coral, Coral Reefs, 23, 218–224, 2004.
Marubini, F., Barnett, H., Langdon, C., and Atkinson, M. J.: Dependence of calcification on light and carbonate ion concentration for the hermatypic coral Porites compressa, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 220, 153–162, https://doi.org/10.3354/Meps220153, 2001.
Marubini, F., Ferrier-Pagès, C., Furla, P., and Allemand, D.: Coral calcification responds to seawater acidification: a working hypothesis towards a physiological mechanism, Coral Reefs, 27, 491–499, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-008-0375-6, 2008.
Mass, T., Einbinder, S., Brokovich, E., Shashar, N., Vago, R., Erez, J., and Dubinsky, Z.: Photoacclimation of Stylophora pistillata to light extremes: metabolism and calcification, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 334, 93–102, 2007.
Muller, E. B., Kooijman, S. A., Edmunds, P. J., Doyle, F. J., and Nisbet, R. M.: Dynamic energy budgets in syntrophic symbiotic relationships between heterotrophic hosts and photoautotrophic symbionts, J. Theor. Biol., 259, 44–57, 2009.
Nisbet, R. M., Muller, E. B., Lika, K., and Kooijman, S. A. L. M.: From molecules to ecosystems through dynamic energy budget models, J. Anim. Ecol., 69, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.1046/J.1365-2656.2000.00448.X, 2000.
Ohde, S. and Hossain, M. M. M.: Effect of CaCO3 (aragonite) saturation state of seawater on calcification of Porites coral, Geochem. J., 38, 613–621, 2004.
Pandolfi, J. M., Connolly, S. R., Marshall, D. J., and Cohen, A. L.: Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification, Science, 333, 418–422, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204794, 2011.
Porter, J., Muscatine, L., Dubinsky, Z., and Falkowski, P.: Primary production and photoadaptation in light-and shade-adapted colonies of the symbiotic coral, Stylophora pistillata, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. B Bio., 222, 161–180, 1984.
Poulsen, A., Burns, K., Lough, J., Brinkman, D., and Delean, S.: Trace analysis of hydrocarbons in coral cores from Saudi Arabia, Org. Geochem., 37, 1913–1930, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Orggeochem.2006.07.011, 2006.
Putron, S. J., McCorkle, D. C., Cohen, A. L., and Dillon, A. B.: The impact of seawater saturation state and bicarbonate ion concentration on calcification by new recruits of two Atlantic corals, Coral Reefs, 30, 321–328, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-010-0697-z, 2010.
Rayner, N., Parker, D., Horton, E., Folland, C., Alexander, L., Rowell, D., Kent, E., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. (1984–2012), 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S., and Schlax, M. G.: Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature, J. Climate, 20, 5473–5496, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1824.1, 2007.
Ricke, K. L., Orr, J. C., Schneider, K., and Caldeira, K.: Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003, 2013.
Ries, J. B., Cohen, A. L., and McCorkle, D. C.: A nonlinear calcification response to CO2-induced ocean acidification by the coral Oculina arbuscula, Coral Reefs, 29, 661–674, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-010-0632-3, 2010.
Rodrigues, L. J. and Grottoli, A. G.: Calcification rate and the stable carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen isotopes in the skeleton, host tissue, and zooxanthellae of bleached and recovering Hawaiian corals, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 70, 2781–2789, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2006.02.014, 2006.
Schneider, K. and Erez, J.: The effect of carbonate chemistry on calcification and photosynthesis in the hermatypic coral Acropora eurystoma, Limnol. Oceanogr., 51, 1284–1293, 2006.
Scoffin, T., Tudhope, A., Brown, B., Chansang, H., and Cheeney, R.: Patterns and possible environmental controls of skeletogenesis of Porites lutea, South Thailand, Coral Reefs, 11, 1–11, 1992.
Shamberger, K. E. F, Feely, R. A, Sabine, C. L, Atkinson, M. J., DeCarlo, E. H., Mackenzie, F. T, Drupp, P. S., and Butterfield, D. A.: Calcification and organic production on a Hawaiian coral reef, Mar. Chem., 127, 64–75, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2011.08.003, 2011.
Shamberger, K. E. F., Cohen, A. L., Golbuu, Y., McCorkle, D. C., Lentz, S. J., and Barkley, H. C.: Diverse coral communities in naturally acidified waters of a Western Pacific Reef, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 499–504, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058489, 2014.
Shaw, E. C., McNeil, B. I., and Tilbrook, B.: Impacts of ocean acidification in naturally variable coral reef flat ecosystems, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C03038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jc007655, 2012.
Shi, Q., Yu, K. F., Chen, T. R., Zhang, H. L., Zhao, M. X., and Yan, H. Q.: Two centuries-long records of skeletal calcification in massive Porites colonies from Meiji Reef in the southern South China Sea and its responses to atmospheric CO2 and seawater temperature, Sci. China Earth Sci., 55, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1007/S11430-011-4320-0, 2012.
Silverman, J., Lazar, B., Cao, L., Caldeira, K., and Erez, J.: Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036282, 2009.
Stearns, S. C.: The evolutionary significance of phenotypic plasticity, Bioscience, 39, 436–445, 1998.
Stephens, C., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Conkright, M. E., Locarnini, R. A., O'Brien, T. D., and Garcia, H. E.: World Ocean Atlas 2001, Volume 1: Temperature, edited by: Levitus, S., NOAA Atlas NESDIS 49, U.S. Government Printing Office, Wash., D.C., 167 pp., CD-ROMs, 2002.
Thornhill, D. J., Rotjan, R. D., Todd, B. D., Chilcoat, G. C., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Kemp, D. W., LaJeunesse, T. C., Reynolds, J., Schmidt, G. W., Shannon, T., Warner, M. E., and Fitt, W. K.: A connection between colony biomass and death in Caribbean reef-building corals, PLoS ONE, 6, e29535, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0029535, 2011.
van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A., and Planes, S.: Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world, Nature Climate Change, 3, 503–511, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1829, 2013.
Wilkinson, C.: Status of the coral reefs of the world, Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef And Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville, Australia, 296, 304 pp., 2008.
Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems threatened by rising CO2 levels through increases in sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. This study presents a new unified model, based on experimental and observational data, that links changes in temperature and carbonate chemistry to coral health. We show that, despite the implicit complexity of the coral reef environment, our simple model can give important insights into how corals respond to changes in temperature and ocean acidification.
Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems threatened by rising CO2 levels through increases in sea...