Articles | Volume 13, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4533-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4533-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Aug 2016
Research article |
| 12 Aug 2016
Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska
Claudie Beaulieu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton,
Southampton, UK
Harriet Cole
Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton,
Southampton, UK
now at: MSS Marine Laboratory, Marine Scotland Science,
Aberdeen, UK
Stephanie Henson
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton,
UK
Andrew Yool
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton,
UK
Thomas R. Anderson
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton,
UK
Lee de Mora
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
Erik T. Buitenhuis
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change research, School of
Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
UK
Momme Butenschön
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
Ian J. Totterdell
Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK
J. Icarus Allen
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
Related authors
Ben I. Moat, David A. Smeed, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Damien G. Desbruyères, Claudie Beaulieu, William E. Johns, Darren Rayner, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Molly O. Baringer, Denis Volkov, Laura C. Jackson, and Harry L. Bryden
Ocean Sci., 16, 863–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-863-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-863-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The RAPID 26° N array has been measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004. Since 2009 the AMOC has, compared with previous years, been in a low state. In 2013–2015, in the northern North Atlantic, strong cooling was observed in the ocean and anticipated to intensify the strength of the AMOC some years later. Here, we analyse the latest results from 26° N and conclude that while the AMOC has increased since 2009, this increase is not statistically significant.
Wolfgang Buermann, Claudie Beaulieu, Bikash Parida, David Medvigy, George J. Collatz, Justin Sheffield, and Jorge L. Sarmiento
Biogeosciences, 13, 1597–1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1597-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Recent analyses of the global carbon budget found a substantial increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unknown. Consistent with this shift, we find that plant growth increased in the late 1980s especially in Eurasia and northern Africa. There, climatic constraints on plant growth have eased possibly due to linked climate modes in the North Atlantic. Better understanding of North Atlantic climate may be essential for more credible projections of the land carbon sink.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Lee de Mora, Ranjini Swaminathan, Richard P. Allan, Jerry C. Blackford, Douglas I. Kelley, Phil Harris, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Spencer Liddicoat, Robert J. Parker, Tristan Quaife, Jeremy Walton, and Andrew Yool
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1295–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface and ocean for multiple models and over a range of future scenarios. We did this by comparing simulations after the same change in the global-mean near-surface temperature. Using this method, we show that the choice of scenario can impact the carbon allocation to the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Scenarios with higher emissions reach the same warming levels sooner, but also with relatively more carbon in the atmosphere.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Rainer Kiko, Fabien Lombard, Lionel Guidi, and Corinne Le Quéré
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2995-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using outputs of global biogeochemical ocean model and machine learning methods, we demonstrate that it will be possible to identify linkages between surface environmental and ecosystem structure and the export of carbon to depth by sinking organic particles using real observations. It will be possible to use this knowledge to improve both our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and of their functional representation within models.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin G. Jones, Steven T. Rumbold, Till Kuhlbrodt, Andrea J. Dittus, Edward W. Blockley, Andrew Yool, Jeremy Walton, Catherine Hardacre, Timothy Andrews, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Marc Stringer, Lee de Mora, Phil Harris, Richard Hill, Doug Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Yongming Tang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1569–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent global climate models simulate historical global mean surface temperatures which are too cold, possibly to due to excessive aerosol cooling. This raises questions about the models' ability to simulate important climate processes and reduces confidence in future climate predictions. We present a new version of the UK Earth System Model, which has an improved aerosols simulation and a historical temperature record. Interestingly, the long-term response to CO2 remains largely unchanged.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Stephanie Woodward, Alistair A. Sellar, Yongming Tang, Marc Stringer, Andrew Yool, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14503–14528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14503-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14503-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the dust scheme in the UKESM1 Earth system model and show generally good agreement with observations. Comparing with the closely related HadGEM3-GC3.1 model, we show that dust differences are not only due to inter-model differences but also to the dust size distribution. Under climate change, HadGEM3-GC3.1 dust hardly changes, but UKESM1 dust decreases because that model includes the vegetation response which, in our models, has a bigger impact on dust than climate change itself.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Reint Fischer, Delphine Lobelle, Merel Kooi, Albert Koelmans, Victor Onink, Charlotte Laufkötter, Linda Amaral-Zettler, Andrew Yool, and Erik van Sebille
Biogeosciences, 19, 2211–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since current estimates show that only about 1 % of the all plastic that enters the ocean is floating at the surface, we look at subsurface processes that can cause vertical movement of (micro)plastic. We investigate how modelled algal attachment and the ocean's vertical movement can cause particles to sink and oscillate in the open ocean. Particles can sink to depths of > 5000 m in regions with high wind intensity and mainly remain close to the surface with low winds and biological activity.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Colin G. Jones, Lee de Mora, Till Kuhlbrodt, Ekatarina E. Popova, A. J. George Nurser, Joel Hirschi, Adam T. Blaker, Andrew C. Coward, Edward W. Blockley, and Alistair A. Sellar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3437–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean plays a key role in modulating the Earth’s climate. Understanding this role is critical when using models to project future climate change. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate their realism against the ocean's observed state. Here we validate UKESM1, a new Earth system model, focusing on the realism of its ocean physics and circulation, as well as its biological cycles and productivity. While we identify biases, generally the model performs well over a wide range of properties.
Rebecca M. Wright, Corinne Le Quéré, Erik Buitenhuis, Sophie Pitois, and Mark J. Gibbons
Biogeosciences, 18, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Jellyfish have been included in a global ocean biogeochemical model for the first time. The global mean jellyfish biomass in the model is within the observational range. Jellyfish are found to play an important role in the plankton ecosystem, influencing community structure, spatiotemporal dynamics and biomass. The model raises questions about the sensitivity of the zooplankton community to jellyfish mortality and the interactions between macrozooplankton and jellyfish.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Lee de Mora, Alistair A. Sellar, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmieri, Robin S. Smith, Till Kuhlbrodt, Robert J. Parker, Jeremy Walton, Jeremy C. Blackford, and Colin G. Jones
Geosci. Commun., 3, 263–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-263-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-263-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use time series data from the first United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1) to create six procedurally generated musical pieces for piano. Each of the six pieces help to explain either a scientific principle or a practical aspect of Earth system modelling. We describe the methods that were used to create these pieces, discuss the limitations of this pilot study and list several approaches to extend and expand upon this work.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
Ben I. Moat, David A. Smeed, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Damien G. Desbruyères, Claudie Beaulieu, William E. Johns, Darren Rayner, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Molly O. Baringer, Denis Volkov, Laura C. Jackson, and Harry L. Bryden
Ocean Sci., 16, 863–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-863-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-863-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The RAPID 26° N array has been measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004. Since 2009 the AMOC has, compared with previous years, been in a low state. In 2013–2015, in the northern North Atlantic, strong cooling was observed in the ocean and anticipated to intensify the strength of the AMOC some years later. Here, we analyse the latest results from 26° N and conclude that while the AMOC has increased since 2009, this increase is not statistically significant.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Mattia Righi, Bouwe Andela, Veronika Eyring, Axel Lauer, Valeriu Predoi, Manuel Schlund, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Lisa Bock, Björn Brötz, Lee de Mora, Faruk Diblen, Laura Dreyer, Niels Drost, Paul Earnshaw, Birgit Hassler, Nikolay Koldunov, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1179–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1179-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the second major release of ESMValTool, a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. This new version features a brand new design, with an improved interface and a revised preprocessor. It takes advantage of state-of-the-art computational libraries and methods to deploy efficient and user-friendly data processing, improving the performance over its predecessor by more than a factor of 30.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ian J. Totterdell
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4497–4549, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4497-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4497-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a complete description of version 1.0 of the Diat-HadOCC ocean biogeochemical model. A full set of equations is included, as are the parameterisations used and the rationale for choosing them. The model was developed to be a sub-model of the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model, which has been used to run a range of simulations for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Results from those simulations are shown and compared to data (where available).
Matthew P. Couldrey, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Andrew Yool, Paul R. Halloran, and Eric P. Achterberg
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-16, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Determining how much carbon dioxide (CO2) the oceans absorb is key to predicting human-caused climate change. A computer model of the ocean shows how the North Atlantic will change up to the end of the century. Year-to-year variations are mostly caused by changes in ocean temperature and seawater chemistry, altering CO2 solubility. By 2100, human emissions cause the biggest changes. The near term changes are physically driven, which may be more predictable than biological changes.
Ben A. Ward, Jamie D. Wilson, Ros M. Death, Fanny M. Monteiro, Andrew Yool, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4241–4267, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4241-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A novel configuration of an Earth system model includes a diverse plankton community. The model – EcoGEnIE – is sufficiently complex to reproduce a realistic, size-structured plankton community, while at the same time retaining the efficiency to run to a global steady state (~ 10k years). The increased capabilities of EcoGEnIE will allow future exploration of ecological communities on much longer timescales than have so far been examined in global ocean models and particularly for past climate.
Lee de Mora, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmieri, Alistair Sellar, Till Kuhlbrodt, Ekaterina Popova, Colin Jones, and J. Icarus Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4215–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4215-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4215-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the Earth's weather, ice caps, land surface, and ocean. Computer models of the Earth system are the only tools available to make predictions about how the climate may change in the future. However, in order to trust the model predictions, we must first demonstrate that the models have a realistic description of the past. The BGC-val toolkit was built to rapidly and simply evaluate the behaviour of models of the Earth's oceans.
Erik T. Buitenhuis, Parvadha Suntharalingam, and Corinne Le Quéré
Biogeosciences, 15, 2161–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2161-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2161-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Thanks to decreases in CFC concentrations, N2O is now the third-most important greenhouse gas, and the dominant contributor to stratospheric ozone depletion. Here we estimate the ocean–atmosphere N2O flux. We find that an estimate based on observations alone has a large uncertainty. By combining observations and a range of model simulations we find that the uncertainty is much reduced to 2.45 ± 0.8 Tg N yr−1, and better constrained and at the lower end of the estimate in the latest IPCC report.
Huw W. Lewis, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Jennifer Graham, Andrew Saulter, Jorge Bornemann, Alex Arnold, Joachim Fallmann, Chris Harris, David Pearson, Steven Ramsdale, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Lucy Bricheno, Eleanor Blyth, Victoria A. Bell, Helen Davies, Toby R. Marthews, Clare O'Neill, Heather Rumbold, Enda O'Dea, Ashley Brereton, Karen Guihou, Adrian Hines, Momme Butenschon, Simon J. Dadson, Tamzin Palmer, Jason Holt, Nick Reynard, Martin Best, John Edwards, and John Siddorn
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In the real world the atmosphere, oceans and land surface are closely interconnected, and yet prediction systems tend to treat them in isolation. Those feedbacks are often illustrated in natural hazards, such as when strong winds lead to large waves and coastal damage, or when prolonged rainfall leads to saturated ground and high flowing rivers. For the first time, we have attempted to represent some of the feedbacks between sky, sea and land within a high-resolution forecast system for the UK.
Anna Belcher, Clara Manno, Peter Ward, Stephanie A. Henson, Richard Sanders, and Geraint A. Tarling
Biogeosciences, 14, 1511–1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1511-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1511-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Faecal pellets (FPs) are a dominant part of the deep ocean carbon fluxes. We compare estimates of FP production, to measurements of FPs in the meso- and bathypelagic. Despite being produced in high numbers in the surface ocean, small FPs are not transferred efficiently to depth. Changes in FP morphology point to the repacking of surface FPs in the mesopelagic and in situ production at depth, highlighting the importance of deep zooplankton communities for the transfer of carbon to the deep ocean.
Jason Holt, Patrick Hyder, Mike Ashworth, James Harle, Helene T. Hewitt, Hedong Liu, Adrian L. New, Stephen Pickles, Andrew Porter, Ekaterina Popova, J. Icarus Allen, John Siddorn, and Richard Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 499–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models is one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. Here, we explore what the options are for improving this by exploring what the important physical processes are that need to be represented. We use a simple scale analysis to investigate how large the resulting models would need to be. We then compare this with how computer power is increasing to provide estimates of when this might be feasible in the future.
Jun She, Icarus Allen, Erik Buch, Alessandro Crise, Johnny A. Johannessen, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Urmas Lips, Glenn Nolan, Nadia Pinardi, Jan H. Reißmann, John Siddorn, Emil Stanev, and Henning Wehde
Ocean Sci., 12, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This white paper addresses key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European ocean observations, modelling and forecasting technology, coastal operational oceanography, and operational ecology.
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Momme Butenschön, James Clark, John N. Aldridge, Julian Icarus Allen, Yuri Artioli, Jeremy Blackford, Jorn Bruggeman, Pierre Cazenave, Stefano Ciavatta, Susan Kay, Gennadi Lessin, Sonja van Leeuwen, Johan van der Molen, Lee de Mora, Luca Polimene, Sevrine Sailley, Nicholas Stephens, and Ricardo Torres
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1293–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
ERSEM 15.06 is a model for marine biogeochemistry and the lower trophic levels of the marine food web. It comprises a pelagic and benthic sub-model including the microbial food web and the major biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, silicate, and iron using dynamic stochiometry. Further features include modules for the carbonate system and calcification. We present full mathematical descriptions of all elements along with examples at various scales up to 3-D applications.
Wolfgang Buermann, Claudie Beaulieu, Bikash Parida, David Medvigy, George J. Collatz, Justin Sheffield, and Jorge L. Sarmiento
Biogeosciences, 13, 1597–1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1597-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Recent analyses of the global carbon budget found a substantial increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unknown. Consistent with this shift, we find that plant growth increased in the late 1980s especially in Eurasia and northern Africa. There, climatic constraints on plant growth have eased possibly due to linked climate modes in the North Atlantic. Better understanding of North Atlantic climate may be essential for more credible projections of the land carbon sink.
L. de Mora, M. Butenschön, and J. I. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 59–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-59-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-59-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To use models to inform policy or to forecast the impact of climate change, the model must first be shown to be a valid representation of the ecosystem. Here we show an novel method to validate a marine model using its ability to represent ecosystem function. These relationships are the community structure, the carbon to chlorophyll ratio and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem. These methods are powerful, valid over large spatial scales and independent of the circulation model.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
H. Frigstad, S. A. Henson, S. E. Hartman, A. M. Omar, E. Jeansson, H. Cole, C. Pebody, and R. S. Lampitt
Biogeosciences, 12, 5885–5897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5885-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5885-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses observations from both a mooring at the surface and a sediment trap at around 3000m in the Northeast Atlantic. Observations of nitrogen and carbon are used to calculate the seasonal net community production (NCP) and new production, and we find that there is a larger uptake of carbon than would traditionally be expected. Only a small fraction of the surface production reaches the sediment trap, and using a particle-tracking approach we find that the source regions vary widely.
T. R. Anderson, W. C. Gentleman, and A. Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2231–2262, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2231-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2231-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystem models provide a powerful tool for simulating ocean biology. Care must be exercised when selecting appropriate equations and parameter values to represent chosen marine ecosystems. Here, we present an efficient plankton model testbed, using simplified physics and coded in the freely available language R. Multiple runs can be undertaken for different ocean sites, permitting thorough evaluation of ecosystem model performance. The testbed also serves as an excellent resource for teaching.
J. C. P. Hemmings, P. G. Challenor, and A. Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 697–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-697-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-697-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Effective calibration of global models is inhibited by the computational demands of 3-D simulations. As a solution for the NEMO-MEDUSA model, we present an efficient emulator of surface chlorophyll as a function of MEDUSA’s biogeochemical parameters. The emulator comprises an array of site-based 1-D simulators and a quantification of uncertainty in their predictions. It is able to produce robust probabilistic estimates of 3-D model output rapidly for comparison with satellite chlorophyll.
L. Kwiatkowski, A. Yool, J. I. Allen, T. R. Anderson, R. Barciela, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschön, C. Enright, P. R. Halloran, C. Le Quéré, L. de Mora, M.-F. Racault, B. Sinha, I. J. Totterdell, and P. M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 11, 7291–7304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, 2014
B. A. Kelly-Gerreyn, A. P. Martin, B. J. Bett, T. R. Anderson, J. I. Kaariainen, C. E. Main, C. J. Marcinko, and A. Yool
Biogeosciences, 11, 6401–6416, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6401-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6401-2014, 2014
S. C. Painter, S. A. Henson, A. Forryan, S. Steigenberger, J. Klar, M. C. Stinchcombe, N. Rogan, A. R. Baker, E. P. Achterberg, and C. M. Moore
Biogeosciences, 11, 2113–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2113-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2113-2014, 2014
S. F. Sailley and E. T. Buitenhuis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-149-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Y. Artioli, J. C. Blackford, G. Nondal, R. G. J. Bellerby, S. L. Wakelin, J. T. Holt, M. Butenschön, and J. I. Allen
Biogeosciences, 11, 601–612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-601-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-601-2014, 2014
J. Holt, C. Schrum, H. Cannaby, U. Daewel, I. Allen, Y. Artioli, L. Bopp, M. Butenschon, B. A. Fach, J. Harle, D. Pushpadas, B. Salihoglu, and S. Wakelin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
E. E. Popova, A. Yool, Y. Aksenov, A. C. Coward, and T. R. Anderson
Biogeosciences, 11, 293–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-293-2014, 2014
A. Yool, E. E. Popova, and T. R. Anderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1767–1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1767-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1767-2013, 2013
A. Yool, E. E. Popova, A. C. Coward, D. Bernie, and T. R. Anderson
Biogeosciences, 10, 5831–5854, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5831-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5831-2013, 2013
F. A. C. Le Moigne, S. A. Henson, R. J. Sanders, and E. Madsen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 295–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-295-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-295-2013, 2013
E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Vogt, R. Moriarty, N. Bednaršek, S. C. Doney, K. Leblanc, C. Le Quéré, Y.-W. Luo, C. O'Brien, T. O'Brien, J. Peloquin, R. Schiebel, and C. Swan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 227–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-227-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-227-2013, 2013
S. Henson, H. Cole, C. Beaulieu, and A. Yool
Biogeosciences, 10, 4357–4369, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4357-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4357-2013, 2013
L. de Mora, M. Butenschön, and J. I. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 533–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-533-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Aquatic
Changes in Arctic Ocean plankton community structure and trophic dynamics on seasonal to interannual timescales
Global impact of benthic denitrification on marine N2 fixation and primary production simulated by a variable-stoichiometry Earth system model
Efficiency metrics for ocean alkalinity enhancement under responsive and prescribed atmosphere conditions
Killing the predator: impacts of highest-predator mortality on the global-ocean ecosystem structure
Hydrodynamic and biochemical impacts on the development of hypoxia in the Louisiana–Texas shelf – Part 1: roles of nutrient limitation and plankton community
Validation of the coupled physical–biogeochemical ocean model NEMO–SCOBI for the North Sea–Baltic Sea system
Investigating ecosystem connections in the shelf sea environment using complex networks
Seasonal and interannual variability of the pelagic ecosystem and of the organic carbon budget in the Rhodes Gyre (eastern Mediterranean): influence of winter mixing
How much do bacterial growth properties and biodegradable dissolved organic matter control water quality at low flow?
Methane emissions from Arctic landscapes during 2000–2015: an analysis with land and lake biogeochemistry models
Including filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton in a global marine biogeochemical model: model–data comparison and impact on the ocean carbon cycle
Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake
Subsurface oxygen maximum in oligotrophic marine ecosystems: mapping the interaction between physical and biogeochemical processes
Quantifying biological carbon pump pathways with a data-constrained mechanistic model ensemble approach
Assessing the spatial and temporal variability of methylmercury biogeochemistry and bioaccumulation in the Mediterranean Sea with a coupled 3D model
Hydrodynamic and biochemical impacts on the development of hypoxia in the Louisiana–Texas shelf – Part 2: statistical modeling and hypoxia prediction
Modelling the effects of benthic fauna on carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in the Baltic Sea
Improved prediction of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) distributions in the northeast subarctic Pacific using machine-learning algorithms
Nutrient transport and transformation in macrotidal estuaries of the French Atlantic coast: a modeling approach using the Carbon-Generic Estuarine Model
A modelling study of temporal and spatial pCO2 variability on the biologically active and temperature-dominated Scotian Shelf
Modeling the marine chromium cycle: new constraints on global-scale processes
New insights into large-scale trends of apparent organic matter reactivity in marine sediments and patterns of benthic carbon transformation
Evaluation of ocean dimethylsulfide concentration and emission in CMIP6 models
Zooplankton mortality effects on the plankton community of the northern Humboldt Current System: sensitivity of a regional biogeochemical model
Multi-compartment kinetic–allometric (MCKA) model of radionuclide bioaccumulation in marine fish
Impact of bottom trawling on sediment biogeochemistry: a modelling approach
Cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea: a review of models and facts
Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble
Modeling silicate–nitrate–ammonium co-limitation of algal growth and the importance of bacterial remineralization based on an experimental Arctic coastal spring bloom culture study
Role of jellyfish in the plankton ecosystem revealed using a global ocean biogeochemical model
Extreme event waves in marine ecosystems: an application to Mediterranean Sea surface chlorophyll
Use of optical absorption indices to assess seasonal variability of dissolved organic matter in Amazon floodplain lakes
The role of sediment-induced light attenuation on primary production during Hurricane Gustav (2008)
Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in zooplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico with a physical–biogeochemical model
One size fits all? Calibrating an ocean biogeochemistry model for different circulations
Assessing the temporal scale of deep-sea mining impacts on sediment biogeochemistry
Seasonal patterns of surface inorganic carbon system variables in the Gulf of Mexico inferred from a regional high-resolution ocean biogeochemical model
Oxygen dynamics and evaluation of the single-station diel oxygen model across contrasting geologies
Oceanic CO2 outgassing and biological production hotspots induced by pre-industrial river loads of nutrients and carbon in a global modeling approach
Global trends in marine nitrate N isotopes from observations and a neural network-based climatology
Merging bio-optical data from Biogeochemical-Argo floats and models in marine biogeochemistry
Model constraints on the anthropogenic carbon budget of the Arctic Ocean
Modeling oceanic nitrate and nitrite concentrations and isotopes using a 3-D inverse N cycle model
Biogeochemical response of the Mediterranean Sea to the transient SRES-A2 climate change scenario
Modelling the biogeochemical effects of heterotrophic and autotrophic N2 fixation in the Gulf of Aqaba (Israel), Red Sea
A perturbed biogeochemistry model ensemble evaluated against in situ and satellite observations
Diazotrophy as the main driver of the oligotrophy gradient in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean: results from a one-dimensional biogeochemical–physical coupled model
Causes of simulated long-term changes in phytoplankton biomass in the Baltic proper: a wavelet analysis
Modelling N2 fixation related to Trichodesmium sp.: driving processes and impacts on primary production in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Long-term response of oceanic carbon uptake to global warming via physical and biological pumps
Gabriela Negrete-García, Jessica Y. Luo, Colleen M. Petrik, Manfredi Manizza, and Andrew D. Barton
Biogeosciences, 21, 4951–4973, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic Ocean experiences significant seasonal and year-to-year changes, impacting marine plankton populations. Using a plankton community model, we studied these effects on plankton communities and their influence on fish production. Our findings revealed earlier plankton blooms, shifts towards more carnivorous zooplankton, and increased fishery potential during summertime, especially in warmer years with less ice, highlighting the delicate balance of Arctic ecosystems.
Na Li, Christopher J. Somes, Angela Landolfi, Chia-Te Chien, Markus Pahlow, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 21, 4361–4380, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
N is a crucial nutrient that limits phytoplankton growth in large ocean areas. The amount of oceanic N is governed by the balance of N2 fixation and denitrification. Here we incorporate benthic denitrification into an Earth system model with variable particulate stoichiometry. Our model compares better to the observed surface nutrient distributions, marine N2 fixation, and primary production. Benthic denitrification plays an important role in marine N and C cycling and hence the global climate.
Michael Dominik Tyka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2150, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine CO2 removal (mCDR) is a promising technology for removing legacy emissions from the atmosphere. Its indirect nature makes it difficult to assess experimentally; instead one relies heavily on simulation. Many past papers treated the atmosphere as non-responsive to the intervention studied. We show that even under these simplified assumptions, the increase in ocean CO2 inventory is equal to the equivalent quantity of direct CO2 removals occurring over time, in a realistic atmosphere.
David Talmy, Eric Carr, Harshana Rajakaruna, Selina Våge, and Anne Willem Omta
Biogeosciences, 21, 2493–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2493-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The structure of plankton communities is central to global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and other elements. This study explored the sensitivity of different assumptions about highest-predator mortality in ecosystem models with contrasting food web structures. In the context of environmental data, we find support for models assuming a density-dependent mortality of the highest predator, irrespective of assumed food web structure.
Yanda Ou and Z. George Xue
Biogeosciences, 21, 2385–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Developed for the Gulf of Mexico (2006–2020), a 3D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model validated against in situ data reveals the impact of nutrients and plankton diversity on dissolved oxygen dynamics. It highlights the role of physical processes, sediment oxygen consumption, and nutrient distribution in shaping bottom oxygen levels and hypoxia. The model underscores the importance of complex plankton interactions for understanding primary production and hypoxia evolution.
Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Elin Almroth-Rosell, Lars Axell, Sam T. Fredriksson, Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Sandra-Esther Brunnabend, Matthias Gröger, Ivan Kuznetsov, Filippa Fransner, Robinson Hordoir, Saeed Falahat, and Lars Arneborg
Biogeosciences, 21, 2087–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2087-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The health of the Baltic and North seas is threatened due to high anthropogenic pressure; thus, different methods to assess the status of these regions are urgently needed. Here, we validated a novel model simulating the ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry of the Baltic and North seas that can be used to create future climate and nutrient scenarios, contribute to European initiatives on de-eutrophication, and provide water quality advice and support on nutrient load reductions for both seas.
Ieuan Higgs, Jozef Skákala, Ross Bannister, Alberto Carrassi, and Stefano Ciavatta
Biogeosciences, 21, 731–746, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-731-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A complex network is a way of representing which parts of a system are connected to other parts. We have constructed a complex network based on an ecosystem–ocean model. From this, we can identify patterns in the structure and areas of similar behaviour. This can help to understand how natural, or human-made, changes will affect the shelf sea ecosystem, and it can be used in multiple future applications such as improving modelling, data assimilation, or machine learning.
Joelle Habib, Caroline Ulses, Claude Estournel, Milad Fakhri, Patrick Marsaleix, Mireille Pujo-Pay, Marine Fourrier, Laurent Coppola, Alexandre Mignot, Laurent Mortier, and Pascal Conan
Biogeosciences, 20, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Rhodes Gyre, eastern Mediterranean Sea, is the main Levantine Intermediate Water formation site. In this study, we use a 3D physical–biogeochemical model to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of organic carbon dynamics in the gyre. Our results show its autotrophic nature and its high interannual variability, with enhanced primary production, downward exports, and onward exports to the surrounding regions during years marked by intense heat losses and deep mixed layers.
Masihullah Hasanyar, Thomas Romary, Shuaitao Wang, and Nicolas Flipo
Biogeosciences, 20, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1621-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1621-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The results of this study indicate that biodegradable dissolved organic matter is responsible for oxygen depletion at low flow during summer seasons when heterotrophic bacterial activity is so intense. Therefore, the dissolved organic matter must be well measured in the water monitoring networks in order to have more accurate water quality models. It also advocates for high-frequency data collection for better quantification of the uncertainties related to organic matter.
Xiangyu Liu and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 20, 1181–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1181-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We are among the first to quantify methane emissions from inland water system in the pan-Arctic. The total CH4 emissions are 36.46 Tg CH4 yr−1 during 2000–2015, of which wetlands and lakes were 21.69 Tg yr−1 and 14.76 Tg yr−1, respectively. By using two non-overlap area change datasets with land and lake models, our simulation avoids small lakes being counted twice as both lake and wetland, and it narrows the gap between two different methods used to quantify regional CH4 emissions.
Corentin Clerc, Laurent Bopp, Fabio Benedetti, Meike Vogt, and Olivier Aumont
Biogeosciences, 20, 869–895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gelatinous zooplankton play a key role in the ocean carbon cycle. In particular, pelagic tunicates, which feed on a wide size range of prey, produce rapidly sinking detritus. Thus, they efficiently transfer carbon from the surface to the depths. Consequently, we added these organisms to a marine biogeochemical model (PISCES-v2) and evaluated their impact on the global carbon cycle. We found that they contribute significantly to carbon export and that this contribution increases with depth.
Shuang Gao, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Ingo Bethke, Jens Hartmann, Emilio Mayorga, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 20, 93–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impact of riverine nutrients and carbon (C) on projected marine primary production (PP) and C uptake using a fully coupled Earth system model. Riverine inputs alleviate nutrient limitation and thus lessen the projected PP decline by up to 0.7 Pg C yr−1 globally. The effect of increased riverine C may be larger than the effect of nutrient inputs in the future on the projected ocean C uptake, while in the historical period increased nutrient inputs are considered the largest driver.
Valeria Di Biagio, Stefano Salon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 19, 5553–5574, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of dissolved oxygen in the ocean is the result of interacting physical and biological processes. Oxygen vertical profiles show a subsurface maximum in a large part of the ocean. We used a numerical model to map this subsurface maximum in the Mediterranean Sea and to link local differences in its properties to the driving processes. This emerging feature can help the marine ecosystem functioning to be better understood, also under the impacts of climate change.
Michael R. Stukel, Moira Décima, and Michael R. Landry
Biogeosciences, 19, 3595–3624, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3595-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The biological carbon pump (BCP) transports carbon into the deep ocean, leading to long-term marine carbon sequestration. It is driven by many physical, chemical, and ecological processes. We developed a model of the BCP constrained using data from 11 cruises in 4 different ocean regions. Our results show that sinking particles and vertical mixing are more important than transport mediated by vertically migrating zooplankton. They also highlight the uncertainty in current estimates of the BCP.
Ginevra Rosati, Donata Canu, Paolo Lazzari, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 19, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Methylmercury (MeHg) is produced and bioaccumulated in marine food webs, posing concerns for human exposure through seafood consumption. We modeled and analyzed the fate of MeHg in the lower food web of the Mediterranean Sea. The modeled spatial–temporal distribution of plankton bioaccumulation differs from the distribution of MeHg in surface water. We also show that MeHg exposure concentrations in temperate waters can be lowered by winter convection, which is declining due to climate change.
Yanda Ou, Bin Li, and Z. George Xue
Biogeosciences, 19, 3575–3593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decades, the Louisiana–Texas shelf has been suffering recurring hypoxia (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg L−1). We developed a novel prediction model using state-of-the-art statistical techniques based on physical and biogeochemical data provided by a numerical model. The model can capture both the magnitude and onset of the annual hypoxia events. This study also demonstrates that it is possible to use a global model forecast to predict regional ocean water quality.
Eva Ehrnsten, Oleg Pavlovitch Savchuk, and Bo Gustav Gustafsson
Biogeosciences, 19, 3337–3367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3337-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3337-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the effects of benthic fauna, animals living on or in the seafloor, on the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus using a model of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By eating and excreting, the animals transform a large part of organic matter sinking to the seafloor into inorganic forms, which fuel plankton blooms. Simultaneously, when they move around (bioturbate), phosphorus is bound in the sediments. This reduces nitrogen-fixing plankton blooms and oxygen depletion.
Brandon J. McNabb and Philippe D. Tortell
Biogeosciences, 19, 1705–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1705-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1705-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The trace gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) plays an important role in the ocean sulfur cycle and can also influence Earth’s climate. Our study used two statistical methods to predict surface ocean concentrations and rates of sea–air exchange of DMS in the northeast subarctic Pacific. Our results show improved predictive power over previous approaches and suggest that nutrient availability, light-dependent processes, and physical mixing may be important controls on DMS in this region.
Xi Wei, Josette Garnier, Vincent Thieu, Paul Passy, Romain Le Gendre, Gilles Billen, Maia Akopian, and Goulven Gildas Laruelle
Biogeosciences, 19, 931–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estuaries are key reactive ecosystems along the land–ocean aquatic continuum and are often strongly impacted by anthropogenic activities. We calculated nutrient in and out fluxes by using a 1-D transient model for seven estuaries along the French Atlantic coast. Among these, large estuaries with high residence times showed higher retention rates than medium and small ones. All reveal coastal eutrophication due to the excess of diffused nitrogen from intensive agricultural river basins.
Krysten Rutherford, Katja Fennel, Dariia Atamanchuk, Douglas Wallace, and Helmuth Thomas
Biogeosciences, 18, 6271–6286, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6271-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6271-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a regional model of the northwestern North Atlantic shelves in combination with a surface water time series and repeat transect observations, we investigate surface CO2 variability on the Scotian Shelf. The study highlights a strong seasonal cycle in shelf-wide pCO2 and spatial variability throughout the summer months driven by physical events. The simulated net flux of CO2 on the Scotian Shelf is out of the ocean, deviating from the global air–sea CO2 flux trend in continental shelves.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, David J. Janssen, Samuel L. Jaccard, and Thomas F. Stocker
Biogeosciences, 18, 5447–5463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chromium (Cr) is a redox-sensitive element that holds promise as a tracer of ocean oxygenation and biological activity. We here implemented the oxidation states Cr(III) and Cr(VI) in the Bern3D model to investigate the processes that shape the global Cr distribution. We find a Cr ocean residence time of 5–8 kyr and that the benthic source dominates the tracer budget. Further, regional model–data mismatches suggest strong Cr removal in oxygen minimum zones and a spatially variable benthic source.
Felipe S. Freitas, Philip A. Pika, Sabine Kasten, Bo B. Jørgensen, Jens Rassmann, Christophe Rabouille, Shaun Thomas, Henrik Sass, Richard D. Pancost, and Sandra Arndt
Biogeosciences, 18, 4651–4679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4651-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4651-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It remains challenging to fully understand what controls carbon burial in marine sediments globally. Thus, we use a model–data approach to identify patterns of organic matter reactivity at the seafloor across distinct environmental conditions. Our findings support the notion that organic matter reactivity is a dynamic ecosystem property and strongly influences biogeochemical cycling and exchange. Our results are essential to improve predictions of future changes in carbon cycling and climate.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Mariana Hill Cruz, Iris Kriest, Yonss Saranga José, Rainer Kiko, Helena Hauss, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 18, 2891–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2891-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a regional biogeochemical model of the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean to implicitly simulate the effect that fluctuations in populations of small pelagic fish, such as anchovy and sardine, may have on the biogeochemistry of the northern Humboldt Current System. To do so, we vary the zooplankton mortality in the model, under the assumption that these fishes eat zooplankton. We also evaluate the model for the first time against mesozooplankton observations.
Roman Bezhenar, Kyeong Ok Kim, Vladimir Maderich, Govert de With, and Kyung Tae Jung
Biogeosciences, 18, 2591–2607, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2591-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2591-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach to predicting the accumulation of radionuclides in fish was developed by taking into account heterogeneity of distribution of contamination in the organism and dependence of metabolic process rates on the fish mass. Predicted concentrations of radionuclides in fish agreed well with the laboratory and field measurements. The model with the defined generic parameters could be used in marine environments without local calibration, which is important for emergency decision support.
Emil De Borger, Justin Tiano, Ulrike Braeckman, Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp, and Karline Soetaert
Biogeosciences, 18, 2539–2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2539-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Bottom trawling alters benthic mineralization: the recycling of organic material (OM) to free nutrients. To better understand how this occurs, trawling events were added to a model of seafloor OM recycling. Results show that bottom trawling reduces OM and free nutrients in sediments through direct removal thereof and of fauna which transport OM to deeper sediment layers protected from fishing. Our results support temporospatial trawl restrictions to allow key sediment functions to recover.
Britta Munkes, Ulrike Löptien, and Heiner Dietze
Biogeosciences, 18, 2347–2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2347-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2347-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Cyanobacteria blooms can strongly aggravate eutrophication problems of water bodies. Their controls are, however, not comprehensively understood, which impedes effective management and protection plans. Here we review the current understanding of cyanobacteria blooms. Juxtaposition of respective field and laboratory studies with state-of-the-art mathematical models reveals substantial uncertainty associated with nutrient demands, grazing, and death of cyanobacteria.
Jens Terhaar, Olivier Torres, Timothée Bourgeois, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 18, 2221–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.
Tobias R. Vonnahme, Martial Leroy, Silke Thoms, Dick van Oevelen, H. Rodger Harvey, Svein Kristiansen, Rolf Gradinger, Ulrike Dietrich, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 18, 1719–1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Diatoms are crucial for Arctic coastal spring blooms, and their growth is controlled by nutrients and light. At the end of the bloom, inorganic nitrogen or silicon can be limiting, but nitrogen can be regenerated by bacteria, extending the algal growth phase. Modeling these multi-nutrient dynamics and the role of bacteria is challenging yet crucial for accurate modeling. We recreated spring bloom dynamics in a cultivation experiment and developed a representative dynamic model.
Rebecca M. Wright, Corinne Le Quéré, Erik Buitenhuis, Sophie Pitois, and Mark J. Gibbons
Biogeosciences, 18, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Jellyfish have been included in a global ocean biogeochemical model for the first time. The global mean jellyfish biomass in the model is within the observational range. Jellyfish are found to play an important role in the plankton ecosystem, influencing community structure, spatiotemporal dynamics and biomass. The model raises questions about the sensitivity of the zooplankton community to jellyfish mortality and the interactions between macrozooplankton and jellyfish.
Valeria Di Biagio, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 17, 5967–5988, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Events that influence the functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems are of interest in relation to a changing climate. We propose a method to identify and characterise
wavesof extreme events affecting marine ecosystems for multi-week periods over wide areas. Our method can be applied to suitable ecosystem variables and has been used to describe different kinds of extreme event waves of phytoplankton chlorophyll in the Mediterranean Sea, by analysing the output from a high-resolution model.
Maria Paula da Silva, Lino A. Sander de Carvalho, Evlyn Novo, Daniel S. F. Jorge, and Claudio C. F. Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 17, 5355–5364, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyze the seasonal changes in the dissolved organic matter (DOM) quality (based on its optical properties) in four Amazon floodplain lakes. DOM plays a fundamental role in surface water chemistry, controlling metal bioavailability and mobility, and nutrient cycling. The model proposed in our paper highlights the potential to study DOM quality at a wider spatial scale, which may help to better understand the persistence and fate of DOM in the ecosystem.
Zhengchen Zang, Z. George Xue, Kehui Xu, Samuel J. Bentley, Qin Chen, Eurico J. D'Sa, Le Zhang, and Yanda Ou
Biogeosciences, 17, 5043–5055, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5043-2020, 2020
Taylor A. Shropshire, Steven L. Morey, Eric P. Chassignet, Alexandra Bozec, Victoria J. Coles, Michael R. Landry, Rasmus Swalethorp, Glenn Zapfe, and Michael R. Stukel
Biogeosciences, 17, 3385–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3385-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3385-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Zooplankton are the smallest animals in the ocean and important food for fish. Despite their importance, zooplankton have been relatively undersampled. To better understand the zooplankton community in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), we developed a model to simulate their dynamics. We found that heterotrophic protists are important for supporting mesozooplankton, which are the primary prey of larval fish. The model developed in this study has the potential to improve fisheries management in the GoM.
Iris Kriest, Paul Kähler, Wolfgang Koeve, Karin Kvale, Volkmar Sauerland, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 17, 3057–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Constants of global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned
by handto match observations of nutrients or oxygen. We investigate the effect of this tuning by optimising six constants of a global biogeochemical model, simulated in five different offline circulations. Optimal values for three constants adjust to distinct features of the circulation applied and can afterwards be swapped among the circulations, without losing too much of the model's fit to observed quantities.
Laura Haffert, Matthias Haeckel, Henko de Stigter, and Felix Janssen
Biogeosciences, 17, 2767–2789, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2767-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2767-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules is expected to have severe environmental impacts. Through prognostic modelling, this study aims to provide a holistic assessment of the biogeochemical recovery after a disturbance event. It was found that the recovery strongly depends on the impact type; e.g. complete removal of the surface sediment reduces seafloor nutrient fluxes over centuries.
Fabian A. Gomez, Rik Wanninkhof, Leticia Barbero, Sang-Ki Lee, and Frank J. Hernandez Jr.
Biogeosciences, 17, 1685–1700, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1685-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1685-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model to infer annual changes of surface carbon chemistry in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The main seasonality drivers of partial pressure of carbon dioxide and aragonite saturation state from the model are temperature and river runoff. The GoM basin is a carbon sink in winter–spring and carbon source in summer–fall, but uptake prevails near the Mississippi Delta year-round due to high biological production. Our model results show good correspondence with observational studies.
Simon J. Parker
Biogeosciences, 17, 305–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-305-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Dissolved oxygen (DO) models typically assume constant ecosystem respiration over the course of a single day. Using a data-driven approach, this research examines this assumption in four streams across two (hydro-)geological types (Chalk and Greensand). Despite hydrogeological equivalence in terms of baseflow index for each hydrogeological pairing, model suitability differed within, rather than across, geology types. This corresponded with associated differences in timings of DO minima.
Fabrice Lacroix, Tatiana Ilyina, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 17, 55–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions of rivers to the oceanic cycling of carbon have been poorly represented in global models until now. Here, we assess the long–term implications of preindustrial riverine loads in the ocean in a novel framework which estimates the loads through a hierarchy of weathering and land–ocean export models. We investigate their impacts for the oceanic biological production and air–sea carbon flux. Finally, we assess the potential incorporation of the framework in an Earth system model.
Patrick A. Rafter, Aaron Bagnell, Dario Marconi, and Timothy DeVries
Biogeosciences, 16, 2617–2633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2617-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2617-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The N isotopic composition of nitrate (
nitrate δ15N) is a useful tracer of ocean N cycling and many other ocean processes. Here, we use a global compilation of marine nitrate δ15N as an input, training, and validating dataset for an artificial neural network (a.k.a.,
machine learning) and examine basin-scale trends in marine nitrate δ15N from the surface to the seafloor.
Elena Terzić, Paolo Lazzari, Emanuele Organelli, Cosimo Solidoro, Stefano Salon, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, and Pascal Conan
Biogeosciences, 16, 2527–2542, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2527-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2527-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Measuring ecosystem properties in the ocean is a hard business. Recent availability of data from Biogeochemical-Argo floats can help make this task easier. Numerical models can integrate these new data in a coherent picture and can be used to investigate the functioning of ecosystem processes. Our new approach merges experimental information and model capabilities to quantitatively demonstrate the importance of light and water vertical mixing for algae dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea.
Jens Terhaar, James C. Orr, Marion Gehlen, Christian Ethé, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 2343–2367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A budget of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean, the main driver of open-ocean acidification, was constructed for the first time using a high-resolution ocean model. The budget reveals that anthropogenic carbon enters the Arctic Ocean mainly by lateral transport; the air–sea flux plays a minor role. Coarser-resolution versions of the same model, typical of earth system models, store less anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean and thus underestimate ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean.
Taylor S. Martin, François Primeau, and Karen L. Casciotti
Biogeosciences, 16, 347–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrite is a key intermediate in many nitrogen (N) cycling processes in the ocean, particularly in areas with low oxygen that are hotspots for N loss. We have created a 3-D global N cycle model with nitrite as a tracer. Stable isotopes of N are also included in the model and we are able to model the isotope fractionation associated with each N cycling process. Our model accurately represents N concentrations and isotope distributions in the ocean.
Camille Richon, Jean-Claude Dutay, Laurent Bopp, Briac Le Vu, James C. Orr, Samuel Somot, and François Dulac
Biogeosciences, 16, 135–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of climate change and biogeochemical forcing evolution on the nutrient and plankton cycles of the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. We use a high-resolution coupled physical and biogeochemical model and perform 120-year transient simulations. The results indicate that changes in external nutrient fluxes and climate change may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on nutrient concentrations, depending on the region and the scenario.
Angela M. Kuhn, Katja Fennel, and Ilana Berman-Frank
Biogeosciences, 15, 7379–7401, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7379-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7379-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies demonstrate that marine N2 fixation can be carried out without light. However, direct measurements of N2 fixation in dark environments are relatively scarce. This study uses a model that represents biogeochemical cycles at a deep-ocean location in the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea). Different model versions are used to test assumptions about N2 fixers. Relaxing light limitation for marine N2 fixers improved the similarity between model results and observations of deep nitrate and oxygen.
Prima Anugerahanti, Shovonlal Roy, and Keith Haines
Biogeosciences, 15, 6685–6711, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6685-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6685-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Minor changes in the biogeochemical model equations lead to major dynamical changes. We assessed this structural sensitivity for the MEDUSA biogeochemical model on chlorophyll and nitrogen concentrations at five oceanographic stations over 10 years, using 1-D ensembles generated by combining different process equations. The ensemble performed better than the default model in most of the stations, suggesting that our approach is useful for generating a probabilistic biogeochemical ensemble model.
Audrey Gimenez, Melika Baklouti, Thibaut Wagener, and Thierry Moutin
Biogeosciences, 15, 6573–6589, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6573-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6573-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the OUTPACE cruise conducted in the oligotrophic to ultra-oligotrophic region of the western tropical South Pacific, two contrasted regions were sampled in terms of N2 fixation rates, primary production rates and nutrient availability. The aim of this work was to investigate the role of N2 fixation in the differences observed between the two contrasted areas by comparing two simulations only differing by the presence or not of N2 fixers using a 1-D biogeochemical–physical coupled model.
Jenny Hieronymus, Kari Eilola, Magnus Hieronymus, H. E. Markus Meier, Sofia Saraiva, and Bengt Karlson
Biogeosciences, 15, 5113–5129, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5113-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how phytoplankton concentrations in the Baltic Sea co-vary with nutrient concentrations and other key variables on inter-annual timescales in a model integration over the years 1850–2008. The study area is not only affected by climate change; it has also been subjected to greatly increased nutrient loads due to extensive use of agricultural fertilizers. The results indicate the largest inter-annual coherence of phytoplankton with the limiting nutrient.
Cyril Dutheil, Olivier Aumont, Thomas Gorguès, Anne Lorrain, Sophie Bonnet, Martine Rodier, Cécile Dupouy, Takuhei Shiozaki, and Christophe Menkes
Biogeosciences, 15, 4333–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4333-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
N2 fixation is recognized as one of the major sources of nitrogen in the ocean. Thus, N2 fixation sustains a significant part of the primary production (PP) by supplying the most common limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth. From numerical simulations, the local maximums of Trichodesmium biomass in the Pacific are found around islands, explained by the iron fluxes from island sediments. We assessed that 15 % of the PP may be due to Trichodesmium in the low-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas.
Akitomo Yamamoto, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 15, 4163–4180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4163-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Millennial-scale changes in oceanic CO2 uptake due to global warming are simulated by a GCM and offline biogeochemical model. Sensitivity studies show that decreases in oceanic CO2 uptake are mainly caused by a weaker biological pump and seawater warming. Enhanced CO2 uptake due to weaker equatorial upwelling cancels out reduced CO2 uptake due to weaker AMOC and AABW formation. Thus, circulation change plays only a small direct role in reduction of CO2 uptake due to global warming.
Cited articles
Alexander, M., Capotondi, A., Miller, A., Chai, F., Brodeur, R., and Deser, C.: Decadal variability in the northeast Pacific in a physical-ecosystem model: Role of mixed layer depth and trophic interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C02017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004359, 2008.
Alheit, J. P., Licandro, S., Coombs, A., Garcia, A., Giráldez, A., Garcia Santamaría, M. T., Slotte, A., and Tsikliras, A. C.: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulates dynamics of small pelagic fishes and ecosystem regime shifts in the eastern North and Central Atlantic, J. Mar. Syst., 131, 21–35, 2014.
Allen, J. I., Aiken, J., Anderson, T. R., Buitenhuis, E., Cornell, S., Geider, R., Haines, K., Hirata, T., Holt, J., Le Quéré, C., Hardman-Mountford, N., Ross, O. N., Sinha, B., and While, J.: Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: The MarQUEST experience, J. Mar. Syst., 81, 19–33, 2010.
Andersen, T., Carstensen, J., Hernandez-Garcia, E., and Duarte, D. M.: Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification, Trends Ecol. Evol., 24, 49–57, 2009.
Anderson, P. J. and Piatt, J. F.: Community reorganization of the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 189, 117–123, 1999.
Baretta, J.W., Ebenhoh, W., and Ruardij, P.: The European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model, a complex marine ecosystem model, Netherlands J. Sea Res., 33, 233–246, 1995.
Beaugrand, G.: The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences, Prog. Oceanogr., 60, 245–262, 2004.
Beaugrand, G., Luczak, C., and Edwards, M.: Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 1790–1803, 2009.
Beaulieu, C., Chen, J., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Change-point analysis as a tool to detect abrupt climate variations, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 370, 1228–1249, 2012.
Beaulieu, C., Henson, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P., Doney, S. C., Rykaczewski, R. R., and Bopp, L.: Factors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll, Biogeosciences, 10, 2711–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, 2013.
Bellwood, D. R., Hugues, T. P., Folke, C., and Nyström, M.: Confronting the coral reef crisis, Nature, 429, 827–833, 2004.
Benson, A. J. and Trites, A. W.: Ecological effects of regime shifts in the Bering Sea and eastern North Pacific Ocean, Fish Fish., 3, 95–113, 2002.
Bestelmeyer, B. T., Ellison, A. M., Fraser, W. R., Gorman, K. B., Holbrook, S. J., Laney, C. M., Ohman, M. D., Peters, D. P. C., Pillsbury, F. C., Rassweiler, A., Schmitt, R. J., and Sharma, S.: Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems, Ecosphere, 2, 129, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00216.1, 2011.
Blackford, J. C.: An analysis of benthic biological dynamics in a North Sea ecosystem model, J. Sea Res., 38, 213–230, 1997.
Blackford, J. C., Allen, J. I., and Gilbert, F. J.: Ecosystem dynamics at six contrasting sites: a generic modelling study, J. Mar. Syst., 52, 191–215, 2004.
Bond, N. A., Overland, J. E., Spillane, M., and Stabeno, P.: Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2183, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018597, 2003.
Boulton, C. A. and Lenton, T. M.: Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 11496–11501, 2015.
Brodeur, R. D. and Ware, D. M.: Long-term variability in zooplankton biomass in the subarctic Pacific Ocean, Fish. Oceanogr., 1, 32–38, 1992.
Buitenhuis, E., Hashioka, T., and Le Quéré, C.: Combined constraints on global ocean primary production using observations and models, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 847–858, 2013.
Butenschön, M., Clark, J., Aldridge, J. N., Allen, J. I., Artioli, Y., Blackford, J., Bruggeman, J., Cazenave, P., Ciavatta, S., Kay, S., Lessin, G., van Leeuwen, S., van der Molen, J., de Mora, L., Polimene, L., Sailley, S., Stephens, N., and Torres, R.: ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1293–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016, 2016.
Capotondi, A., Alexander, M. A., Deser, C., and Miller, A. J.: Low frequency pycnocline variability in the northeast Pacific, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 35, 1403–1420, 2005.
Chai, F., Dugdale, R. C., Peng, T.-H., Wilkerson, F. P., and Barber, R. T.: One-dimensional ecosystem model of the equatorial Pacific upwelling system: part I, Model development and silicon and nitrogen cycle, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 49, 2713–2745, 2002.
Cury, P. and Shannon, L.: Regime shifts in upwelling ecosystems: observed changes and possible mechanisms in the northern and southern Benguela, Prog. Oceanogr., 60, 223–243, 2004.
Daskalov, G. M., Grishin, A. N., Rodionov, S., and Mihneva, V.: Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 10518–10523, 2007.
Denman, K. L. and Peña, M.A.: A coupled 1-D biological/physical model of the northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean with iron limitation, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 46, 2877–2908, 1999.
deYoung, B., Barange, M., Beaugrand, G., Harris, R., Perry, R. I., Scheffer, M., and Werner, F.: Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management, Trends Ecol. Evol., 23, 402–409, 2008.
Di Lorenzo, E., Schneider, N., Cobb, K.M., Franks, P. J. S., Chhak, K., Miller, A. J., McWilliams, J. C., Bograd, S. J., Arango, H., Curchitser, E., Powell, T. M., and Rivière, P.: North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08607, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032838, 2008.
Di Lorenzo, E. and Ohman, M. D.: A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 2496–2499, 2013.
Drinkwater, K. F.: The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic, Prog. Oceanogr., 68, 134–151, 2006.
Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L., and Holling, C. S.: Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management, Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 35, 557–581, 2004.
Francis, R. C., Hare, S. R., Hollowed, A. B., and Wooster, W. S.: Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific, Fish. Oceanogr., 7, 1–21, 1998.
Friedrichs, M. A., Dusenberry, M. J., Anderson, L., Armstrong, R., Chai, F., Christian, J., Doney, S., Dunne, J., Fujii, M., Hood, R., McGillicuddy, D., Moore, M., Schartau, M., Spitz, Y., and Wiggert, J.: Assessment of skill and portability in regional marine biogeochemical models: the role of multiple plankton groups, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C08001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003852, 2007.
Fulton, E. A., Smith, A. D. M., and Johnson, C. R.: Effect of complexity on marine ecosystem models, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 253, 1–16, 2003.
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation (ed Levitus S), 344 pp., NOAA Atlas NESDIS 70, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 2009a.
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 4: Nutrients (Phosphate, Nitrate, Silicate) (ed Levitus S), 398 pp., NOAA Atlas NESDIS 71, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 2009b.
Haigh, S. P., Denman, K. L., and Hsieh, W. W.: Simulation of the planktonic ecosystem response to pre- and post- 1976 forcing in an isopycnic model of the North Pacific, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 58, 703-722, 2001.
Halloran, P. R., Bell, T. G., and Totterdell, I. J.: Can we trust empirical marine DMS parameterisations within projections of future climate?, Biogeosciences, 7, 1645–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1645-2010, 2010.
Hare, S. and Mantua, N. J.: Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, Prog. Oceanogr., 47, 103–145, 2000.
Hsieh, C.-H. and Ohman, M. D.: Biological responses to environmental forcing: the linear tracking window hypothesis, Ecology, 87, 1932–1938, 2006.
Hunke, E. C. and Lipscomb, W. H.: CICE: The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model, Documentation and Software User's Manual, Version 4.0, Los Alamos National Laboratory Tech. Rep. LA-CC-06, 2008.
Kelly, R. P., Erickson, A. L., Mease, L.A., Battista, W., Kittinger, J. N., and Fujitta, R.: Embracing thresholds for better environmental management, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 370, 20130276, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0276, 2015.
Key, R. M., Kozyr, A., Sabine, C. L., Lee, K., Wanningkhof, R., Bullister, J. L., Feely, R. A., Millero, F. J., Mordy, C., and Peng, T.-H.: A global ocean carbon climatology: results from Global Data Analysis Project (GLODAP), Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002247, 2004.
Kwiatkowski, L., Yool, A., Allen, J. I., Anderson, T. R., Barciela, R., Buitenhuis, E. T., Butenschön, M., Enright, C., Halloran, P. R., Le Quéré, C., de Mora, L., Racault, M.-F., Sinha, B., Totterdell, I. J., and Cox, P. M.: iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model intercomparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework, Biogeosciences, 11, 7291–7304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, 2014.
Large, W. and Yeager, S.: The global climatology of an interannually varying air–sea flux data set, Clim. Dynam., 33, 341–364, 2009.
Lees, K., Pitois, S., Scott, C., Frid, C., and Mackinson, S.: Characterizing regime shifts in the marine environment, Fish Fish., 7, 104–127, 2006.
Le Quéré, C., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Buitenhuis, E. T., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Claustre, H., Da Cunha, L. C., Geider, R., Giraud, X., Klaas, C., Kohfeld, K. E., Legendre, L., Manizza, M., Platt, T., Rivkin, R. B., Sathyendranath, S., Uitz, J., Watson, A. J., and Wolf-Gladrow, D.: Ecosystem dynamics based on plankton functional types for global ocean biogeochemistry models, Glob. Change Biol., 11, 2016–2040, 2005.
Lindegren, M., Blenckner, T., and Stenseth, N. C.: Nutrient reduction and climate change cause a potential shift from pelagic to benthic pathways in a eutrophic marine ecosystem, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 3491–3503, 2012.
Litzow, M. A. and Mueter, F. J.: Assessing the ecological importance of climate regime shifts: An approach from the North Pacific Ocean, Prog. Oceanogr., 120, 110–119, 2014.
Litzow, M. A., Mueter, F. J., and Hobday, A. J.: Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 38–50, 2014.
Madec, G.: NEMO Reference Manual, Ocean Dynamic Component: NEMO–OPA, Note du Pôle de modélisation, Technical Report 27, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France, ISSN No. 1288–1619, 2008.
Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., and Francis, R. C.: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 1069–1079, 1997.
McGowan, J. A., Cayan, D. R., and Dorman, L. M.: Climate-ocean variability and ecosystem response in the Northeast Pacific, Science, 281, 210–217, 1998.
McQuatters-Gollop, A., Raitsos, D. E., Edwards, M., Pradhan, Y., Mee, L. D., Lavender, S. J., and Attrill, M. J.: A long-term chlorophyll data set reveals regime shift in North Sea phytoplankton biomass unconnected to nutrient trends, Limnol. Oceanogr., 52, 635–648, 2007.
Möllmann, C., Diekmann, C., Müller-Karulis, B., Kornilovs, G., Plikshs, M., and Axe, P.: Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 1377–1393, 2009.
Newman, M., Compo, G. P., and Alexander, M. A.: ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, J. Climate, 16, 3853–3857, 2003.
Overland, J., Alheit, J., Bakun, A., Hurrell, J. H., Mackas, D. L., and Miller, A. J.: Climate controls on marine ecosystems and fish populations, J. Mar. Syst., 79, 305–315, 2010.
Overland, J., Rodionov, S., Minobe, S., and Bond, N.: North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions, Prog. Oceanogr., 77, 92–102, 2008.
Page, E. S.: Continuous Inspection Scheme, Biometrika, 41, 100–115, 1954.
Palmer, J. and Totterdell, I.: Production and export in a global ocean ecosystem model, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 48, 1169–1198, 2001.
Paternoster, R., Brame, R., Mazerolle, P., and Piquero, A.: Using the correct statistical test for the equality of regression coefficients, Criminology, 36, 859–866, 1998.
Polovina, J. J., Mitchum, G. T., and Evans, G. T.: Decadal and basin-scale variation in mixed layer depth and the impact on biological production in the Central and North Pacific, 1960–88, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 42, 1701–1716, 1995.
Reid, P. C., Borges, M. F., and Svendsen, E.: A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery, Fish. Res., 50, 163–171, 2001.
Rodionov, S. N.: A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09204, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019448, 2004.
Rudnick, D. L. and Davis, R. E.: Red noise and regime shifts, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 50, 691–699, 2003.
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., and Sugihara, G.: Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature, 461, 53–59, 2009.
Schwing, F. B.: Regime Shifts, Physical Forcing, in Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences (Second Edition), edited by: Steele, J. H., 709–716, Academic Press, Oxford, 2009.
Smith, T. M. and Reynolds, R. W.: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854–1997), J. Climate, 16, 1495–1510, 2003.
Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., and Lawrimore, J.: Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006), J. Climate, 21, 2283–2296, 2008.
Spencer, M., Birchenough, S. N. R., Mieszkowska, N., Robinson, L. A., Simpson, S. D., Burrows, M. T., Capasso, E., Cleall-Harding, P., Crummy, J., Duck, C., Eloire, D., Frost, M., Hall, A. J., Hawkins, S. J., Johns, D. G., Sims, T. D., Smyth, T. J., and Frid, C. L. J.: Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?, Mar. Ecol., 32, 10–24, 2011.
Wolter, K. and Timlin, M. S.: Measuring the strength of ENSO events – how does 1997/98 rank?, Weather, 53, 315–324, 1998.
Wunsch, C.: The interpretation of short climate records, with comments on the North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 245–255, 1999.
Yatsu, A., Aydin, K. Y., King, J. R., McFarlana, G. A., Chiba, S., Tadokoro, K., Kaeriyama, M., and Watanabe, Y.: Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy, Prog. Oceanogr., 77, 252–268, 2008.
Yool, A., Popova, E. E., and Anderson, T. R.: Medusa-1.0: a new intermediate complexity plankton ecosystem model for the global domain, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 381–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-381-2011, 2011.
Yool, A., Popova, E. E., and Anderson, T. R.: MEDUSA-2.0: an intermediate complexity biogeochemical model of the marine carbon cycle for climate change and ocean acidification studies, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1767–1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1767-2013, 2013.
Short summary
Regime shifts have been suggested in the late 1970s and late 1980s in the Gulf of Alaska with important consequences for fisheries. Here we investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemical models of varying complexity to simulate these regime shifts. Our results demonstrate that ocean models can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby improving our understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels.
Regime shifts have been suggested in the late 1970s and late 1980s in the Gulf of Alaska with...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint