Articles | Volume 16, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3651-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3651-2019
Research article
 | 
26 Sep 2019
Research article |  | 26 Sep 2019

Trend analysis of the airborne fraction and sink rate of anthropogenically released CO2

Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, and Siem Jan Koopman

Related authors

Estimating breakpoints between climate states in the Cenozoic Era
Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, Siem Jan Koopman, and Kathrine By Larsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2404.08336,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2404.08336, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land surface properties of the boreal forest
Lucia S. Layritz, Konstantin Gregor, Andreas Krause, Stefan Kruse, Benjamin F. Meyer, Thomas A. M. Pugh, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 22, 3635–3660, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3635-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Simulating vertical phytoplankton dynamics in a stratified ocean using a two-layered ecosystem model
Qi Zheng, Johannes J. Viljoen, Xuerong Sun, Žarko Kovač, Shubha Sathyendranath, and Robert J. W. Brewin
Biogeosciences, 22, 3253–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3253-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3253-2025, 2025
Short summary
Assessing the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 and its sensitivity to different carbon cycle processes
Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Bo Liu, and Andrey Ganopolski
Biogeosciences, 22, 2767–2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Foliar nutrient uptake from dust sustains plant nutrition
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, Elnatan Golan, Ran Erel, Daniele Andronico, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 22, 2653–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2653-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2653-2025, 2025
Short summary
The effectiveness of agricultural carbon dioxide removal using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model
Rebecca Chloe Evans and H. Damon Matthews
Biogeosciences, 22, 1969–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1969-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1969-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Atkinson, A. C., Koopman, S. J., and Shephard, N.: Detecting shocks: Outliers and breaks in time series, J. Econometrics, 80, 387–422, 1997. a
Bacastow, R. and Keeling, C. D.: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and radiocarbon in the natural cycle: II. Changes from A. D. 1700 to 2070 as deduced from a geochemical model, in: Carbon and the biosphere conference proceedings; Upton, New York, USA, 86–135, Brookhaven Symposia in Biology, 1973. a, b
Bacastow, R. B. and Keeling, C. D.: Models to predict future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, in: Workshop on the global effects of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, 72–90, US Department of Energy, 1979. a
Ballantyne, A. P., Andres, R., Houghton, R., Stocker, B. D., Wanninkhof, R., Anderegg, W., Cooper, L. A., DeGrandpre, M., Tans, P. P., Miller, J. B., Alden, C., and White, J. W. C.: Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty, Biogeosciences, 12, 2565–2584, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015, 2015. a, b, c, d, e
Boden, T. A., Marland, G., and Andres, R. J.: Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions, oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA, available at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2014.html (last access: 28 June 2017), 2018. a
Download
Short summary
Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is the rate at which the ocean and land sinks take up CO2 from the atmosphere decreasing? We analyse these questions by means of a statistical dynamic multivariate model from which we estimate the unobserved trend processes together with the parameters that govern them. We find no statistical evidence of an increasing airborne fraction, but we do find statistical evidence of a decreasing sink rate.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint