Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3317-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3317-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Jul 2020
Research article |
| 01 Jul 2020
| 01 Jul 2020
Physical and biogeochemical impacts of RCP8.5 scenario in the Peru upwelling system
Vincent Echevin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, 4 place Jussieu,
75252 Paris, France
Manon Gévaudan
Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, 4 place Jussieu,
75252 Paris, France
Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Esquina General Gamarra y Valle,
Callao, Peru
Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie
Spatiales, 14 av. E.Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France
Dante Espinoza-Morriberón
Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Esquina General Gamarra y Valle,
Callao, Peru
Jorge Tam
Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Esquina General Gamarra y Valle,
Callao, Peru
Olivier Aumont
Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, 4 place Jussieu,
75252 Paris, France
Dimitri Gutierrez
Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Esquina General Gamarra y Valle,
Callao, Peru
Laboratorio de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia,
Lima, Peru
François Colas
Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, 4 place Jussieu,
75252 Paris, France
Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Esquina General Gamarra y Valle,
Callao, Peru
Related authors
No articles found.
Madhavan Girijakumari Keerthi, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Marina Levy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2294, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study assesses the capability of CMIP6 models to reproduce satellite observations of sub-seasonal chlorophyll variability. Models struggle to reproduce the sub-seasonal variance and its contribution across timescales. Some models overestimate sub-seasonal variance and exaggerate its role in annual fluctuations, while others underestimate it. Underestimation is likely due to the coarse resolution of models, while overestimation may result from intrinsic oscillations in biogeochemical models.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Corentin Clerc, Laurent Bopp, Fabio Benedetti, Meike Vogt, and Olivier Aumont
Biogeosciences, 20, 869–895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gelatinous zooplankton play a key role in the ocean carbon cycle. In particular, pelagic tunicates, which feed on a wide size range of prey, produce rapidly sinking detritus. Thus, they efficiently transfer carbon from the surface to the depths. Consequently, we added these organisms to a marine biogeochemical model (PISCES-v2) and evaluated their impact on the global carbon cycle. We found that they contribute significantly to carbon export and that this contribution increases with depth.
Marco Yseki, Bruno Turcq, Sandrine Caquineau, Renato Salvatteci, José Solis, C. Gregory Skilbeck, Federico Velazco, and Dimitri Gutiérrez
Clim. Past, 18, 2255–2269, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2255-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2255-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the present work we reconstruct changes in river discharge and wind in Peru during the last deglaciation to understand the mechanisms that modulate changes in precipitation and winds during a period of global warming. We found that changes in river discharge and wind intensity in Peru were sensitive to high-latitude forcing (changes in the intensity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) and Walker circulation variations on a millennial timescale, respectively.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Martí Galí, Marcus Falls, Hervé Claustre, Olivier Aumont, and Raffaele Bernardello
Biogeosciences, 19, 1245–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Part of the organic matter produced by plankton in the upper ocean is exported to the deep ocean. This process, known as the biological carbon pump, is key for the regulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide and global climate. However, the dynamics of organic particles below the upper ocean layer are not well understood. Here we compared the measurements acquired by autonomous robots in the top 1000 m of the ocean to a numerical model, which can help improve future climate projections.
Julien Jouanno, Rachid Benshila, Léo Berline, Antonin Soulié, Marie-Hélène Radenac, Guillaume Morvan, Frédéric Diaz, Julio Sheinbaum, Cristele Chevalier, Thierry Thibaut, Thomas Changeux, Frédéric Menard, Sarah Berthet, Olivier Aumont, Christian Ethé, Pierre Nabat, and Marc Mallet
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4069–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical Atlantic has been facing a massive proliferation of Sargassum since 2011, with severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts. We developed a modeling framework based on the NEMO ocean model, which integrates transport by currents and waves, and physiology of Sargassum with varying internal nutrient quota, and considers stranding at the coast. Results demonstrate the ability of the model to reproduce and forecast the seasonal cycle and large-scale distribution of Sargassum biomass.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Marie-Hélène Radenac, Julien Jouanno, Christine Carine Tchamabi, Mesmin Awo, Bernard Bourlès, Sabine Arnault, and Olivier Aumont
Biogeosciences, 17, 529–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-529-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-529-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite data and a remarkable set of in situ measurements show a main bloom of microscopic seaweed, the phytoplankton, in summer and a secondary bloom in December in the central equatorial Atlantic. They are driven by a strong vertical supply of nitrate in May–July and a shorter and moderate supply in November. In between, transport of low-nitrate water from the west explains most nitrate losses in the sunlit layer. Horizontal eddy-induced processes also contribute to seasonal nitrate removal.
Renaud Person, Olivier Aumont, Gurvan Madec, Martin Vancoppenolle, Laurent Bopp, and Nacho Merino
Biogeosciences, 16, 3583–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is considered a possibly important but largely overlooked source of iron (Fe). Here we explore its fertilization capacity by evaluating the response of marine biogeochemistry to Fe release from icebergs and ice shelves in a global ocean model. Large regional impacts are simulated, leading to only modest primary production and carbon export increases at the scale of the Southern Ocean. Large uncertainties are due to low observational constraints on modeling choices.
Cyril Dutheil, Olivier Aumont, Thomas Gorguès, Anne Lorrain, Sophie Bonnet, Martine Rodier, Cécile Dupouy, Takuhei Shiozaki, and Christophe Menkes
Biogeosciences, 15, 4333–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4333-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
N2 fixation is recognized as one of the major sources of nitrogen in the ocean. Thus, N2 fixation sustains a significant part of the primary production (PP) by supplying the most common limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth. From numerical simulations, the local maximums of Trichodesmium biomass in the Pacific are found around islands, explained by the iron fluxes from island sediments. We assessed that 15 % of the PP may be due to Trichodesmium in the low-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas.
Madhavan Girijakumari Keerthi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Marina Levy, Jerome Vialard, Vallivattathillam Parvathi, Clément de Boyer Montégut, Christian Ethé, Olivier Aumont, Iyyappan Suresh, Valiya Parambil Akhil, and Pillathu Moolayil Muraleedharan
Biogeosciences, 14, 3615–3632, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3615-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3615-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The northern Arabian Sea hosts a winter chlorophyll bloom, which exhibits strong interannual variability. The processes responsible for this interannual variation of the bloom are investigated using observations and a model. The interannual fluctuations of the winter bloom are largely related to the interannual mixed-layer depth (MLD) anomalies, which are driven by net heat flux anomalies. MLD controls the bloom amplitude through a modulation of nutrient turbulent fluxes into the mixed layer.
Guillaume Le Gland, Laurent Mémery, Olivier Aumont, and Laure Resplandy
Biogeosciences, 14, 3171–3189, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3171-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we computed the fluxes of radium-228 from the continental shelf to the open ocean by fitting a numerical model to observations. After determining appropriate model parameters (cost function and number of source regions), we found a lower and more precise global flux than previous estimates: 8.01–8.49×1023 atoms yr−1. This result can be used to assess nutrient and trace element fluxes to the open ocean, but we cannot identify specific pathways like submarine groundwater discharge.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Olivier Aumont, Marco van Hulten, Matthieu Roy-Barman, Jean-Claude Dutay, Christian Éthé, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 14, 2321–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2321-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The marine biological carbon pump is dominated by the vertical transfer of particulate organic carbon (POC) from the surface ocean to its interior. In this study, we explore the impacts of a variable composition of this organic matter using a global ocean biogeochemical model. We show that accounting for a variable lability of POC increases POC concentrations by up to 2 orders of magnitude in the ocean's interior. Furthermore, the amount of carbon that reaches the sediments is twice as large.
Parvathi Vallivattathillam, Suresh Iyyappan, Matthieu Lengaigne, Christian Ethé, Jérôme Vialard, Marina Levy, Neetu Suresh, Olivier Aumont, Laure Resplandy, Hema Naik, and Wajih Naqvi
Biogeosciences, 14, 1541–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1541-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1541-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
During late boreal summer and fall, the west coast of India (WCI) experiences hypoxia, which turns into anoxia during some years. We analyze a coupled physical–biogeochemical simulation over the 1960–2012 period to investigate the physical processes influencing oxycline interannual variability off the WCI. We show that fall WCI oxycline fluctuations are strongly related to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with positive IODs preventing anoxia, while negative IODs do not necessarily result in anoxia.
Pierre-Amaël Auger, Thomas Gorgues, Eric Machu, Olivier Aumont, and Patrice Brehmer
Biogeosciences, 13, 6419–6440, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6419-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6419-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A box modeling approach reveals that horizontal currents drive the spatial distribution of phytoplankton biomass and primary production in the north-west African upwelling system. Alongshore (cross-shore) currents limit (enhance) cross-shore exchanges north (south) of Cape Blanc. Off Cape Blanc, a meridional convergence makes ambiguous the response of coastal nutrient upwelling to wind forcings, and high production is based upon nutrients and remineralized matter injected by horizontal currents.
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, Laurent Bopp, Laure Resplandy, James C. Orr, Olivier Marti, John P. Dunne, James R. Christian, Scott C. Doney, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Paul R. Halloran, Christoph Heinze, Joachim Segschneider, Jerry Tjiputra, Olivier Aumont, and Anastasia Romanou
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for ocean biogeochemistry in CMIP5 models contributed to inter-model differences in modeled fields. We show that a link between spin-up duration and skill-score metrics emerges from both individual IPSL-CM5A-LR's results and an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols constitute a source of inter-model uncertainty which would require more attention in future intercomparison exercises.
Roland Séférian, Christine Delire, Bertrand Decharme, Aurore Voldoire, David Salas y Melia, Matthieu Chevallier, David Saint-Martin, Olivier Aumont, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Dominique Carrer, Hervé Douville, Laurent Franchistéguy, Emilie Joetzjer, and Séphane Sénési
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1423–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first IPCC-class Earth system model developed at Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-ESM1). We detail how the various carbon reservoirs were initialized and analyze the behavior of the carbon cycle and its prominent physical drivers, comparing model results to the most up-to-date climate and carbon cycle dataset over the latest decades.
Francisco Javier Briceño-Zuluaga, Abdelfettah Sifeddine, Sandrine Caquineau, Jorge Cardich, Renato Salvatteci, Dimitri Gutierrez, Luc Ortlieb, Federico Velazco, Hugues Boucher, and Carine Machado
Clim. Past, 12, 787–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-787-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-787-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Comparison between records reveals a coherent match between the meridional displacement of the ITCZ-SPSH system and the regional fluvial and aeolian terrigenous input variability. The aeolian input intensity and the anoxic conditions recorded by marine sediments showed a close link that suggests a common mechanism associated with SPSH displacement. Changes in sediment discharge to the continental shelf are linked to the southward displacement of the ITCZ-SPSH and Walker circulation.
O. Aumont, C. Ethé, A. Tagliabue, L. Bopp, and M. Gehlen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015
C. Ehlert, P. Grasse, D. Gutiérrez, R. Salvatteci, and M. Frank
Clim. Past, 11, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-187-2015, 2015
K. B. Rodgers, O. Aumont, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Plancherel, L. Bopp, C. de Boyer Montégut, D. Iudicone, R. F. Keeling, G. Madec, and R. Wanninkhof
Biogeosciences, 11, 4077–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014, 2014
I. Borrione, O. Aumont, M. C. Nielsdóttir, and R. Schlitzer
Biogeosciences, 11, 1981–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1981-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1981-2014, 2014
R. Salvatteci, D. Gutiérrez, D. Field, A. Sifeddine, L. Ortlieb, I. Bouloubassi, M. Boussafir, H. Boucher, and F. Cetin
Clim. Past, 10, 715–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-715-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-715-2014, 2014
M. Ishii, R. A. Feely, K. B. Rodgers, G.-H. Park, R. Wanninkhof, D. Sasano, H. Sugimoto, C. E. Cosca, S. Nakaoka, M. Telszewski, Y. Nojiri, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Niwa, P. K. Patra, V. Valsala, H. Nakano, I. Lima, S. C. Doney, E. T. Buitenhuis, O. Aumont, J. P. Dunne, A. Lenton, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 11, 709–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-709-2014, 2014
J. C. Currie, M. Lengaigne, J. Vialard, D. M. Kaplan, O. Aumont, S. W. A. Naqvi, and O. Maury
Biogeosciences, 10, 6677–6698, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6677-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6677-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Ocean alkalinity enhancement approaches and the predictability of runaway precipitation processes: results of an experimental study to determine critical alkalinity ranges for safe and sustainable application scenarios
Variations of polyphenols and carbohydrates of Emiliania huxleyi grown under simulated ocean acidification conditions
Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion
The biological and preformed carbon pumps in perpetually slower and warmer oceans
The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5
Mapping the future afforestation distribution of China constrained by a national afforestation plan and climate change
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
New ozone-nitrogen model shows early senescence onset is the primary cause of ozone-induced reduction in grain quality of wheat
Projected changes in forest fire season, number of fires and burnt area in Fennoscandia by 2100
Effect of the 2022 summer drought across forest types in Europe
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Responses of field-grown maize to different soil types, water regimes, and contrasting vapor pressure deficit
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the increase in ocean acidity extremes in the northeastern Pacific
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Alkalinity biases in CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for simulated CO2 drawdown via artificial alkalinity enhancement
Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations
Acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient and biomass declines in a warming Mediterranean Sea
Ocean alkalinity enhancement – avoiding runaway CaCO3 precipitation during quick and hydrated lime dissolution
Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models
Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data
Contrasting responses of phytoplankton productivity between coastal and offshore surface waters in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to short-term seawater acidification
Modeling interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharges in the Kapuas River delta
The application of dendrometers to alpine dwarf shrubs – a case study to investigate stem growth responses to environmental conditions
Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
Evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of blue intensity on multiple conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 4587–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study observed uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Milagros Rico, Paula Santiago-Díaz, Guillermo Samperio-Ramos, Melchor González-Dávila, and Juana Magdalena Santana-Casiano
Biogeosciences, 21, 4381–4394, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in pH generate stress conditions, either because high pH drastically decreases the availability of trace metals such as Fe(II), a restrictive element for primary productivity, or because reactive oxygen species are increased with low pH. The metabolic functions and composition of microalgae can be affected. These modifications in metabolites are potential factors leading to readjustments in phytoplankton community structure and diversity and possible alteration in marine ecosystems.
James A. King, James Weber, Peter Lawrence, Stephanie Roe, Abigail L. S. Swann, and Maria Val Martin
Biogeosciences, 21, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tackling climate change by adding, restoring, or enhancing forests is gaining global support. However, it is important to investigate the broader implications of this. We used a computer model of the Earth to investigate a future where tree cover expanded as much as possible. We found that some tropical areas were cooler because of trees pumping water into the atmosphere, but this also led to soil and rivers drying. This is important because it might be harder to maintain forests as a result.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Biogeosciences, 21, 3373–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How do perpetually slower and warmer oceans sequester carbon? Compared to the preindustrial state, we find that biological productivity declines despite warming-stimulated growth because of a lower nutrient supply from depth. This throttles the biological carbon pump, which still sequesters more carbon because it takes longer to return to the surface. The deep ocean is isolated from the surface, allowing more carbon from the atmosphere to pass through the ocean without contributing to biology.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation regions based on future high-resolution climate data and climate–vegetation models. After considering the national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation region was mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study provides a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
Biogeosciences, 21, 2509–2527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices for the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 21, 2355–2365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesize that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We find that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was also maintained under elevated levels of CO2.
Jo Cook, Clare Brewster, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, Håkan Pleijel, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1311, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
At ground-level, the air pollutant ozone (O3) damages wheat yield and quality. We modified the DO3SE-Crop model to simulate O3 effects on wheat quality and identified onset of leaf death as the key process affecting wheat quality upon O3 exposure. This aligns with expectations as the onset of leaf death aids nutrient transfer from leaves to grains. Breeders should prioritize wheat varieties resistant to protein loss from delayed leaf death, to maintain yield and quality under O3.
Outi Kinnunen, Leif Backamn, Juha Aalto, Tuula Aalto, and Tiina Markkanen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-741, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase forest fire risk. Ecosystem process model simulations are used to project changes in fire occurrence in Fennoscandia under six climate projections. These findings suggest a more extended fire season, more fires and increased burnt area towards the end of the century.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Jingfeng Xiao, Xing Li, and Nina Buchmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-423, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, Europe's forests faced unprecedented dry conditions. Our study aimed to understand how different forest types respond to extreme drought. Using meteorological data and satellite imagery, we compared 2022 with two previous extreme years, 2003 and 2018. Despite less severe drought in 2022, forests showed a 30 % greater decline in photosynthesis compared to 2018 and 60 % more than 2003. This suggests a concerning trend of declining forest resilience to more frequent droughts.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Thuy Huu Nguyen, Thomas Gaiser, Jan Vanderborght, Andrea Schnepf, Felix Bauer, Anja Klotzsche, Lena Lärm, Hubert Hüging, and Frank Ewert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2967, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf water potential was at certain thresholds which depends on soil types, water treatment, and weather conditions. In rainfed plot, the lower water availability in the stony soil resulted in less roots with a higher root tissue conductance than the silty soil. In silty soil, higher stress in the rainfed soil led to more roots with a lower root tissue conductance than in the irrigated plot. Crop responses to water stress can be opposite depending on soil water conditions that are compared.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
Makcim L. De Sisto and Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-96, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
There is uncertainty about the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted to reach specific temperature targets. One source of uncertainty is the representation of the carbon cycle. We assessed the impact of terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus limitation. We found a reduction in the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted to reach temperature targets in the nutrient limited simulations. We found that nutrient limitation is an important factor to consider when estimating remaining carbon budgets.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Charly A. Moras, Lennart T. Bach, Tyler Cyronak, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai G. Schulz
Biogeosciences, 19, 3537–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents the first laboratory results of quick and hydrated lime dissolution in natural seawater. These two minerals are of great interest for ocean alkalinity enhancement, a strategy aiming to decrease atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Following the dissolution of these minerals, we identified several hurdles and presented ways to avoid them or completely negate them. Finally, we proceeded to various simulations in today’s oceans to implement the strategy at its highest potential.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil David Hartstein, Aazani Mujahid, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 3131–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deep coastal inlets are important sites for regulating land-based organic pollution before it enters coastal oceans. This study focused on how large climate forces, rainfall, and river flow impact organic loading and oxygen conditions in a coastal inlet in Tasmania. Increases in rainfall were linked to higher organic loading and lower oxygen in basin waters. Finally we observed a significant correlation between the Southern Annular Mode and oxygen concentrations in the system's basin waters.
Guang Gao, Tifeng Wang, Jiazhen Sun, Xin Zhao, Lifang Wang, Xianghui Guo, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 19, 2795–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
After conducting large-scale deck-incubation experiments, we found that seawater acidification (SA) increased primary production (PP) in coastal waters but reduced it in pelagic zones, which is mainly regulated by local pH, light intensity, salinity, and community structure. In future oceans, SA combined with decreased upward transports of nutrients may synergistically reduce PP in pelagic zones.
Joko Sampurno, Valentin Vallaeys, Randy Ardianto, and Emmanuel Hanert
Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first assessment to evaluate the interactions between river discharges, tides, and storm surges and how they can drive compound flooding in the Kapuas River delta. We successfully created a realistic hydrodynamic model whose domain covers the land–sea continuum using a wetting–drying algorithm in a data-scarce environment. We then proposed a new method to delineate compound flooding hazard zones along the river channels based on the maximum water level profiles.
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Cited articles
Aumont, O., Ethé, C., Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., and Gehlen, M.: PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015.
Bakun, A.: Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean
upwelling, Science, 247, 198–201, 1990.
Bakun, A., Field, D. B., Redondo-Rodriguez, A., and Weeks, S. J.: Greenhouse
gas, upwelling-favorable winds, nad the future of coastal ocean upwelling
ecosystems, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 1213–1228, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02094.x, 2010.
Becker, J. J., Sandwell, D. T., Smith, W. H. F., Braud, J., Binder, B., Depner, J., Fabre, D., Factor, J., Ingalls, S., Kim, S.-H.,
Ladner, R., Marks, K., Nelson, S., Pharaoh, A., Trimmer, R., Von Rosenberg, J., Wallace, G., and Weatherall, P.: Global Bathymetry and Elevation Data at 30 Arc Seconds
Resolution: SRTM30_PLUS, Mar. Geodesy, 32, 355–371, 2009.
Belmadani, A., Echevin, V., Codron, F., Takahashi, K., and Junquas, C.: What
dynamics drive future winds scenarios off Peru and Chile?, Clim. Dynam.,
43, 1893–1914, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2015-2, 2014.
Bertrand, A., Ballon, M., and Chaigneau, A.: Acoustic observation of living
organisms reveals the upper limit of the oxygen minimum zone, PloS ONE, 5,
e10330, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010330, 2010.
Bertrand, A., Chaigneau, A., Peraltilla, S., Ledesma, J., Graco, M.,
Monetti, F., and Chavez, F. P.: Oxygen: a fundamental property regulating
pelagic ecosystem structure in the coastal southeastern tropical Pacific,
PloS ONE, 6, e29558, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0029558, 2011.
Bertrand, A., Grados, D., Colas, F., Bertrand, S., Capet, X., Chaigneau, A.,
Vargas, A., Mousseigne, A., and Fablet, R.: Broad impacts of fine-scale
dynamics on seascape structure from zooplankton to seabirds, Nat. Commun., 5, 5239, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6239, 2014.
Brient, F. and Bony, S.: Interpretation of the positive low-cloud feedback
predicted by a climate model under global warming, Clim. Dynam., 40,
2415—2431, 2013.
Brochier, T., Echevin, V., Tam, J., Chaigneau, A., Goubanova, K., and
Bertrand, A.: Climate change scenario experiment predict a future reduction
in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system, Global
Change Biol., 19, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12184, 2013.
Busecke, J. J. M., Resplandy, L., and Dunne, J. P. P.: The Equatorial
Undercurrent and the oxygen minimum zone in the Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2124–2139, 2019.
Cabré, A., Marinov, I., Bernardello, R., and Bianchi, D.: Oxygen minimum zones in the tropical Pacific across CMIP5 models: mean state differences and climate change trends, Biogeosciences, 12, 5429–5454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5429-2015, 2015.
Cambon, G., Goubanova, K., Marchesiello, P., Dewitte, B., and Illig, S.:
Assessing the impact of downscaled winds on a regional ocean model
simulation of the Humboldt system, Ocean Model., 65, 11–24,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.01.007, 2013.
Carton, J. A. and Giese, B. S.: A reanalysis of ocean climate using Simple
Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 2999–3017,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1978.1, 2008.
Chavez, F., Bertrand, A., Guevara-Carrasco, R., Soler, P., and Csirke J.:
The northern Humboldt Current System: Brief history, present status and a
view towards the future, Prog. Oceanogr., 79, 95–105,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2008.10.012, 2008.
Cheung, W. W. L., Bruggeman, J., and Butenschön, J.: Projected changes in
global and national potential marine fisheries catch under climate change
scenarios in the twenty-first century, in: Impacts of climate change on
fisheries and aquaculture: Synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and
mitigation options, Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nation, p. 63
2018.
Chust, G., Allen, J. I., Bopp, L., Schrum, C., Holt, J., Tsiaras, K., Zavatarelli, M., Chifflet, M., Cannaby, H., Dadou, I.,
Daewel, U., Wakelin, S. L., Machu, E., Pushpadas, D., Butenschon, M., Artioli, Y., Petihakis, G., Smith, C., Garçon, V.,
Goubanova, K., Le Vu, B., Fach, B. A., Salihoglu, B., Clementi, E., and Irigoien, X.: Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in
a warmer ocean, Global Change Biol., 20, 2124–2139, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12562, 2014.
Colas, F., Capet, X., McWilliams, J. C., and Shchepetkin, A.: 1997–1998 El
Niño off Peru: A numerical study, Prog. Oceanogr., 79,
138–155, 2008.
Czeschel, R., Stramma, L., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Giese, B. S., Funk, A., and
Karstensen, J.: Middepth circulation of the eastern tropical South Pacific
and its link to the oxygen minimum zone, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C01015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006565, 2011.
Da Silva, A. M., Young, C. C., and Levitus, S.: Atlas of Surface Marine Data
1994, vol. 1, Algorithms and Procedures, Technical Report, Washington, D.C:
U.S. Department of Commerce, Vol. 6, 2910–3282, 1994.
de Boyer Montégut, C., Madec, G., Fischer, A. S., Lazar, A., and
Iudicone, D.: Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of
profile data and a profile-based climatology, J. Geophys. Res., 109, C12003,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002378, 2004.
Doney, S. C.: Plankton in a warmer world. Nature, 444, 695–696.
https://doi.org/10.1038/444695a, 2006.
Doney, S. C., Ruckelshaus, M., Emmett D. J., Barry, J. P., Chan, F., English, C. A., Galindo, H. M., Grebmeier, J. M.,
Hollowed, A. B., Knowlton, N., Poloniva, J., Rabalais, N. N., Sydeman, W. J., and Talley, L. D.: Climate Change
Impacts on Marine Ecosystems, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 4, 11–37,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611, 2012.
Drenkard, E. J. and Karnauskas, K. B.: Strengthening of the Pacific
equatorial undercurrent in the SODA reanalysis: Mechanisms, ocean dynamics,
and implications, J. Climate, 27, 2405–2416, 2014.
Echevin, V., Aumont, O., Ledesma, J., and Flores, G.: The seasonal cycle of
surface chlorophyll in the Peruvian upwelling system: a model study, Prog.
Oceanogr., 79, 167–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2008.10.026, 2008.
Echevin, V., Colas, F., Chaigneau, A., and Penven, P.: Sensitivity of the
Northern Humboldt Current System nearshore modeled circulation to initial
and boundary conditions, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C07002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006684, 2011.
Echevin, V., Goubanova, K., Belmadani, A., and Dewitte, B.: Sensitivity of
the Humboldt Current system to global warming: a downscaling experiment of
the IPSL-CM4 model, Clim. Dynam., 38, 761–774, 2012.
Echevin, V., Albert, A., Lévy, M., Aumont, O., Graco, M., and Garric,
G.: Remotely-forced intraseasonal variability of the Northern Humboldt
Current System surface chlorophyll using a coupled physical-ecosystem model,
Cont. Shelf. Res., 73, 14–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.11.015, 2014.
Echevin, V., Colas, F., Espinoza-Morriberón, D., Vasquez, L., Anculle,
T., and Gutierrez, D.: Forcings and Evolution of the 2017 Coastal El Niño
Off Northern Peru and Ecuador, Front. Mar. Sci., 5, 367, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00367, 2018.
Eppley, R. W.: Temperature and phytoplankton growth in the sea, Fish. Bull,
70, 1063–1085, 1972.
Espinoza-Morriberón, D., Echevin, V., Colas, F., Tam, J., Ledesma, J., Vásquez, L., and Graco, M.: Impacts of El Niño events on the Peruvian
upwelling system productivity, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 5423–5444,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012439, 2017.
Espinoza-Morriberón, D., Echevin, V., Colas, F., Tam, J., Gutierrez, D.,
Graco, M., Ledesma, J., and Quispe-Ccalluari, C.: Oxygen Variability During ENSO
in the Tropical South Eastern Pacific, Front. Mar. Sci., 5, 526, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00526, 2019.
Espinoza-Morriberón, D.: Variabilité interannuelle et
décadale de la productivité et de la zone de minimum d'oxygène
dans le système d'upwelling du Pérou, PhD
dissertation, Sorbonne University, Paris, France, p. 209, 2018.
Ferry, N., Parent, L., Garric, G., Bricaud, C., Testut, C-E., Le Galloudec, O., Lellouche, J.-M., Drévillon, M., Greiner, E.,
Barnier, B., Molines, J.-M., Jourdain, N., Guinehut, S., Cabanes, C., and Zawadzki, L.: GLORYS2V1 global ocean reanalysis of the altimetric era
(1992–2009) at meso scale, Mercator Ocean–Quaterly Newsletter, 44, 2012.
Furue, R., McCreary, J. P., Yu, Z., and Wang, D.: The dynamics of the
southern Tsuchiya Jet, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 37, 531–553,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO3024.1, 2007.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S.C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V.,
Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of climate models, Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis, in: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited
by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020, 741–866, 2013.
Franco, A. C., Gruber, N., Frolicher, T. L., and Kropuenske Artman, L.:
Contrasting impact of future CO2 emission scenarios on the extent of CaCO3
mineral undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 2018–2036, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018JC013857,
2018.
Goubanova, K., Echevin, V., Dewitte, B., Codron, F., Takahashi, K., Terray,
P., and Vrac, M.: Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the
Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from
the IPSL-CM4 model, Clim. Dynam., 36, 1365–1378, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0824-0, 2010.
Grados, C., Chaigneau, A., Echevin, V., and Domínguez, N.: Upper ocean
hydrology of the Northern Humboldt Current System at seasonal, interannual
and interdecadal scales, Prog. Oceanogr., 165, 123–144, 2018.
Graco, M., Anculle, T., Chaigneau, A., Ledesma, J., Flores, G.,
Morón, O., Monetti, F., and Gutiérrez, D.: Variabilidad espacial
y temporal del oxígeno disuelto y de la ZMO en el sistema de
afloramiento frente a Perú, Libro de la Anchoveta 2020 in press, 2020.
Gruber, N., Frenzel, H., Doney, S. C., Marchesiello, P., McWilliams, J. C., Moisan, J. R., Oram, J. J., Plattner, G.-K., and Stolzenbach, K. D.: Eddy-resolving
simulation of plankton ecosystem dynamics in the California Current System,
Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 53, 1483–1516, 2006.
Gutiérrez, D., Bouloubassi, I., Sifeddine, A., Purca, S., Goubanova, K.,
Graco, M., Field, D., Méjanelle, L., Velazco, F., Lorre, A., Salvatteci,
R., Quispe, D., Vargas, G., Dewitte, B., and Ortlieb, L.: Coastal cooling
and increased productivity in the main upwelling zone off Peru since the
mid-twentieth century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L07603,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046324, 2011.
Gutierrez, M., Ramirez, A., Bertrand, S., Moron, O., and Bertrand, A.:
Ecological niches and areas of overlap of the squat lobster “munida”
(Pleuroncodes monodon) and anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) off Peru, Prog. Oceanogr., 79, 256–263, 2008.
Hall, A., Cox, P., Huntingford, C., and Klein, S.: Progressing emergent
constraints on future climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 269–278,
2019.
Jacox, M. G., Edwards, C. A., Hazen, E. L., and Bograd, S. J.: Coastal
upwelling revisited: Ekman, Bakun, and improved upwelling indices for the
U.S. West Coast, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 7332–7350,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014187, 2018.
Karstensen, J., Stramma, L., and Visbeck, M.: Oxygen minimum zones in the
eastern tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans, Prog. Oceanogr., 77, 331–350, 2008.
Kociuba, G. and Power, S. B.: Inability of CMIP5 models to simulate recent
strengthening of the Walker circulation: Implications for projections,
J. Climate, 28, 20–35, 2015.
Large, W. G., McWilliams, J. C., and Doney, S.: Oceanic vertical mixing: a
review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization, Rev.
Geophys. 32, 363–403, https://doi.org/10.1029/94RG01872, 1994.
Letelier, R. M. and Abbott, M. R.: An analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence
algorithms for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), Remote
Sens. Environ., 58, 215–223, 1996.
L'Heureux, M., Lee, S., and Lyon, B.: Recent multidecadal strengthening of
the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific, Nat. Clim. Change,
3, 571–576, 2013.
Li, Q. and Fox-Kemper, B.: Assessing the Effects of Langmuir Turbulence on
the Entrainment Buoyancy Flux in the Ocean Surface Boundary Layer, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 47,
2863–2886, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-17-0085.1, 2017.
Liu, W. T., Katsaros, K. B., and Businger, J. A.: Bulk parameterization of
air-sea exchanges of heat and water vapor including the molecular
constraints at the interface, J. Atmos. Sci. 36, 1722–1735, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1722:BPOASE>2.0.CO;2, 1979.
Luyten, J. R., Pedlosky, J., and Stommel, H.: The Ventilated Thermocline, J.
Phys. Oceanogr., 13, 292–309,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1983)013<0292:TVT>2.0.CO;2, 1983.
McCreary, J. P.: A linear stratified ocean model of the equatorial
undercurrent, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 298, 1444, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1981.0002, 1981.
McCreary Jr, J. P., Lu, P., and Yu, Z.: Dynamics of the Pacific subsurface
countercurrents, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 2379–2404, 2002.
Mogollón, R. and Calil, P. H.: Counterintuitive effects of global
warming-induced wind patterns on primary production in the northern Humboldt
current system, Glob. Chang. Biol., 24, 3187–3198,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14171, 2018.
Montes, I., Colas, F., Capet, X., and Schneider, W.: On the pathways of the
equatorial subsurface currents in the eastern equatorial Pacific and their
contributions to the Peru-Chile Undercurrent, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
115, C09003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005710, 2010.
Montes, I., Schneider, W., Colas, F., Blanke, B., and Echevin, V.:
Subsurface connections in the eastern tropical Pacific during La Niña
1999–2001 and El Niño 2002–2003, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C12022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007624
2011.
Montes, I., Dewitte, B., Gutknecht, E., Paulmier, A., Dadou, I., and Oschlies,
A.: High-resolution modeling of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Oxygen Minimum
Zone: sensitivity to the tropical oceanic circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 5515–5532, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC009858, 2014.
Oerder, V., Colas, F., Echevin, V., Codron, F., Tam, J., and Belmadani, A.:
Peru-Chile upwelling dynamics under climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
120, 1152–1172, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010299, 2015.
O'Reilly, J. E., Maritorena, S., Mitchell, B. G., Siegel, D. A., Carder, K. L., Garver, S. A., Kahru, M., and McClain, C.: Ocean color chlorophyll algorithms for SeaWiFS,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 103, 24937–24953, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC02160, 1998.
Oschlies, A., Brandt, P., Stramma, L., and Schmidtko, S.: Drivers and
mechanisms of ocean deoxygenation, Nat. Geosci., 11, 467–473, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0152-2, 2018.
Oyarzún, D. and Brierley, C. M.: The future of coastal upwelling in the
Humboldt current from model projections, Clim. Dynam., 52, 599–615,
2019.
Penven, P., Debreu, L., Marchesiello, P., and McWilliams, J. C.: Evaluation
and application of the ROMS 1-way embedding procedure to the central
California upwelling system, Ocean Model., 12, 157–187, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2005.05.002, 2006.
Penven, P., Echevin, V., Pasapera, J., Colas, F., and Tam, J.: Average
circulation, seasonal cycle, and mesoscale dynamics of the Peru Current
System:a modeling approach, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 110, C10021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC002945, 2005.
Penven, P., Marchesiello, P., Debreu, L., and Lefèvre, J.: Software
tools for pre-and post-processing of oceanic regional simulations, Environ.
Model. Softw., 23, 660–662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.07.004, 2008.
Resplandy, L., Lévy, M., Bopp, L., Echevin, V., Pous, S., Sarma, V. V. S. S., and Kumar, D.: Controlling factors of the oxygen balance in the Arabian Sea's OMZ, Biogeosciences, 9, 5095–5109, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5095-2012, 2012.
Ridgway, K. R., Dunn, J. R., and Wilkin, J. L.: Ocean interpolation by
four-dimensional least squares-Application to the waters around Australia,
J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 19, 1357–1375, 2002.
Risien, C. and Chelton, D.: A global climatology of surface wind and wind
stress fields from eight years of Quikscat scatterometer data, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 38, 2379–2413, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JPO3881.1, 2008.
Rykaczewski, R. R., Dunne, J. P., Sydeman, W. J., García-Reyes, M.,
Black, B. A., and Bograd, S. J.: Poleward displacement of coastal
upwelling-favorable winds in the ocean's eastern boundary currents through
the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6424–6431, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064694, 2015.
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.: Quasi-monotone advection schemes
based on explicit locally adaptive dissipation, Mon. Weather Rev., 126,
1541–1580, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1541:QMASBO>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.: The regional oceanic modeling
system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface,
topography-following-coordinate oceanic model, Ocean Model., 9, 347–404,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004, 2005.
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.: Correction and commentary for
“Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: formulation and skill
assessment of the regional ocean modeling system” by Haidvogel et al.,
Comp. J. Phys., 227, 3595–3624, 2009.
Shigemitsu, M., Yamamoto, A., Oka, A., and Yamanaka, Y.: One possible
uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of low-oxygen water volume in the Eastern
Tropical Pacific, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 31, 804–820,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005447, 2017.
Smith, W. H. and Sandwell, D. T.: Global sea floor topography from
satellite altimetry and ship depth soundings, Science, 277, 1956–1962, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.277.5334.1956, 1997.
Stommel, H.: Wind-drift near the equator, Deep-Sea Res., 6, 298–302, 1960.
Stramma, L., Johnson, G. C., Sprintall, J., and Mohrholz, V.: Expanding
Oxygen-Minimum Zones in the tropical oceans, Science, 320, 655–658, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1153847, 2008.
Stramma, L., Schmidtko, S., Levin, L. A., and Johnson, G. C.: Ocean oxygen
minima expansions and their biological impacts, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. 1, 57, 587–595, 2010.
Thomsen, S., Kanzow, T., Colas, F., Echevin, V., Krahmann, G., and Engel,
A.: Do submesoscale frontal processes ventilate the oxygen minimum zone off
Peru?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8133–8142, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070548, 2016.
Tittensor, D. P., Eddy, T. D., Lotze, H. K., Galbraith, E. D., Cheung, W., Barange, M., Blanchard, J. L., Bopp, L., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Büchner, M., Bulman, C., Carozza, D. A., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Dunne, J. P., Fernandes, J. A., Fulton, E. A., Hobday, A. J., Huber, V., Jennings, S., Jones, M., Lehodey, P., Link, J. S., Mackinson, S., Maury, O., Niiranen, S., Oliveros-Ramos, R., Roy, T., Schewe, J., Shin, Y.-J., Silva, T., Stock, C. A., Steenbeek, J., Underwood, P. J., Volkholz, J., Watson, J. R., and Walker, N. D.: A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018.
Tokinaga, H. and Xie, S. P.: Wave-and anemometer-based sea surface wind
(WASWind) for climate change analysis, J. Climate, 24, 267–285,
2011.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K.,
Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T.,
Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative
concentration pathways: an overview, Clim. Change, 109, 5,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Wang, D., Gouhier, T. C., Menge, B. A., and Ganguly, A. R.: Intensification
and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change,
Nature, 518, 390–394, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14235, 2015.
Short summary
The coasts of Peru encompass the richest fisheries in the entire ocean. It is therefore very important for this country to understand how the nearshore marine ecosystem may evolve under climate change. Fine-scale numerical models are very useful because they can represent precisely the evolution of key parameters such as temperature, water oxygenation, and plankton biomass. Here we study the evolution of the Peruvian marine ecosystem in the 21st century under the worst-case climate scenario.
The coasts of Peru encompass the richest fisheries in the entire ocean. It is therefore very...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint