Articles | Volume 21, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 05 Nov 2024
| 05 Nov 2024
Projected changes in forest fire season, the number of fires, and burnt area in Fennoscandia by 2100
Climate Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Leif Backman
Climate Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Juha Aalto
Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2a, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Tuula Aalto
Climate Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Tiina Markkanen
Climate Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Related authors
No articles found.
Rebecca H. Ward, Luke M. Western, Rachel L. Tunnicliffe, Elena Fillola, Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, and Anita L. Ganesan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 813–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-813-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-813-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We studied methane emissions in Arctic Alaska using satellite observations to assess how well they can monitor this important greenhouse gas. We found that emission estimates varied depending on the satellite data product and were strongly affected by assumptions in the model. Our results highlight the need for careful interpretation of emissions from Arctic satellite data and thorough testing of models, with implications for reliable climate monitoring.
Ahmed Hasan Shahriyer, David Kraus, Tiina Markkanen, Mika Korkiakoski, Helena Rautakoski, Suvi Orttenvuori, Yao Gao, Henri Kajasilta, Rüdiger Grote, Annalea Lohila, and Tuula Aalto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5197, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We successfully represented hydrology and carbon cycle associated with different forestry managements (Rotational and continuous cover forestry) for a drained peatland ecosystem using the processed based model LDNDC. This provides a robust framework for investigating future management scenarios and develop forest management strategies that supports climate neutrality in peatland ecosystems.
Anteneh Getachew Mengistu, Aki Tsuruta, Antoine Berchet, Rona Thompson, Maria Tenkanen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Tiina Markkanen, Antti Leppänen, Antti Laitinen, Adrien Martinez, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, and Tuula Aalto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5877, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Our manuscript presents a six-year, high-resolution inversion of European methane emissions using the Community Inversion Framework and FLEXPART. Leveraging an expanded in situ network, we reconcile inventories with observations, reveal regional biases, refine European methane budgets, and highlight the dominance of agricultural emissions. Results provide policy-relevant insights for mitigation and inventory verification.
Eleftherios Ioannidis, Antoon Meesters, Michael Steiner, Dominik Brunner, Friedemann Reum, Isabelle Pison, Antoine Berchet, Rona Thompson, Espen Sollum, Frank-Thomas Koch, Christoph Gerbig, Fenjuan Wang, Shamil Maksyutov, Aki Tsuruta, Maria Tenkanen, Tuula Aalto, Guillaume Monteil, Hong Lin, Ge Ren, Marko Scholze, and Sander Houweling
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 167–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-167-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-167-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a detailed study on CH4 European emissions, using different methodologies (9 total inverse models). The study spans over 15 years and provides detailed information on European CH4 emission trends and seasonality, using in-situ data, including Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) network. Our results highlight the importance of improving details in the inversion setup, such as the treatment of lateral boundary conditions to narrow the uncertainty ranges further.
Juha Leskinen, Leif Backman, Tiina Markkanen, Jussi Lintunen, and Tuula Aalto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4882, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In forest management, carbon sequestration is often the main focus when it comes to climate change mitigation. However, forests impact the climate in other ways too. We examined albedo and heat fluxes alongside carbon sequestration in a boreal Finnish pine forest. For the studied management scenarios we found that the differences in carbon sequestration were the main drivers for total climate impact, albedo mitigated it by a few percentage points, the offset from the heat fluxes were even less.
Ella Kivimäki, Maria Tenkanen, Tuula Aalto, Michael Buchwitz, Kari Luojus, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Oliver Schneising, Anu-Maija Sundström, Johanna Tamminen, Aki Tsuruta, and Hannakaisa Lindqvist
Biogeosciences, 22, 5193–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5193-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We study how environmental variables influencing natural methane fluxes explain the seasonal variability in satellite-observed methane in Northern Hemisphere high-latitude wetland areas. Using two atmospheric model set-ups, we assess consistency with satellite data. Methane loss through reaction with hydroxyl radicals and links with snow cover, temperature, and snowmelt had the strongest influence. Our study highlights the value of satellite observations for understanding large-scale wetland emissions.
Sara Hyvärinen, Maria Katariina Tenkanen, Aki Tsuruta, Anttoni Erkkilä, Kimmo Rautiainen, Hermanni Aaltonen, Motoki Sasakawa, and Tuula Aalto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2794, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed spring methane emissions from northern high-latitude wetlands using satellite thaw data and inverse modeling (2011–2021). Comparing region-based and grid-based approaches, we found that emissions varied with the length of the melting season, which depended on air temperature. We found spring melting season emissions ranged from 0.45 Tg to 1.83 Tg depending on the approach, with no clear trend over the period. Our methods allow for seasonal methane monitoring across different scales.
Aki Tsuruta, Akihiko Kuze, Kei Shiomi, Fumie Kataoka, Nobuhiro Kikuchi, Tuula Aalto, Leif Backman, Ella Kivimäki, Maria K. Tenkanen, Kathryn McKain, Omaira E. García, Frank Hase, Rigel Kivi, Isamu Morino, Hirofumi Ohyama, David F. Pollard, Mahesh K. Sha, Kimberly Strong, Ralf Sussmann, Yao Te, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, Minqiang Zhou, and Hiroshi Suto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7829–7862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7829-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7829-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite data bring invaluable information about greenhouse gas emissions globally. We found that a new type of data from the Greenhouse Gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT), which contains information about methane in the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere, could provide reliable estimates of recent methane emissions when combined with atmospheric modelling. Therefore, the use of such data is encouraged to improve emission quantification methods and advance our understanding of methane cycles.
Antti Laitinen, Hermanni Aaltonen, Christoph Zellweger, Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, and Juha Hatakka
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 3109–3133, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents long-term observations of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 mole fractions and a comparison of two permanent and two mobile measurement systems located in Northern Finland. Furthermore, the observed mole fractions are compared against the mean marine boundary layer product for the Northern Hemisphere. The comparisons of all the systems show good agreement in relation to the World Meteorological Organization/Global Atmosphere Watch network compatibility goal limits for CO2 and CH4.
Stavros Stagakis, Dominik Brunner, Junwei Li, Leif Backman, Anni Karvonen, Lionel Constantin, Leena Järvi, Minttu Havu, Jia Chen, Sophie Emberger, and Liisa Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 22, 2133–2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The balance between CO2 uptake and emissions from urban green areas is still not well understood. This study evaluated for the first time the urban park CO2 exchange simulations with four different types of biosphere model by comparing them with observations. Even though some advantages and disadvantages of the different model types were identified, there was no strong evidence that more complex models performed better than simple ones.
Maria K. Tenkanen, Aki Tsuruta, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Maarit Raivonen, Hermanni Aaltonen, and Tuula Aalto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2181–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate national methane (CH4) emission estimates are essential for tracking progress towards climate goals. This study compares estimates from Finland, which use different methods and scales, and shows how well a global model estimates emissions within a country. The bottom-up estimates vary a lot, but constraining them with atmospheric CH4 measurements brought the estimates closer together. We also highlight the importance of quantifying natural emissions alongside anthropogenic emissions.
Laura Thölix, Leif Backman, Minttu Havu, Esko Karvinen, Jesse Soininen, Justine Trémeau, Olli Nevalainen, Joyson Ahongshangbam, Leena Järvi, and Liisa Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 22, 725–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cities aim for carbon neutrality and seek to understand urban vegetation's role as a carbon sink. Direct measurements are challenging, so models are used to estimate the urban carbon cycle. We evaluated model performance at estimating carbon sequestration in lawns, park trees, and urban forests in Helsinki, Finland. Models captured seasonal and annual variations well. Trees had higher sequestration rates than lawns, and irrigation often enhanced carbon sinks.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Vilna Tyystjärvi, Tiina Markkanen, Leif Backman, Maarit Raivonen, Antti Leppänen, Xuefei Li, Paavo Ojanen, Kari Minkkinen, Roosa Hautala, Mikko Peltoniemi, Jani Anttila, Raija Laiho, Annalea Lohila, Raisa Mäkipää, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences, 21, 5745–5771, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5745-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5745-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drainage of boreal peatlands strongly influences soil methane fluxes, with important implications for climatic impacts. Here we simulate methane fluxes in forestry-drained and restored peatlands during the 21st century. We found that restoration turned peatlands into a source of methane, but the magnitude varied regionally. In forests, changes in the water table level influenced methane fluxes, and in general, the sink was weaker under rotational forestry compared to continuous cover forestry.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Richard Engelen, Sander Houweling, Dominik Brunner, Aki Tsuruta, Bradley Matthews, Prabir K. Patra, Dmitry Belikov, Rona L. Thompson, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wenxin Zhang, Arjo J. Segers, Giuseppe Etiope, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Philippe Peylin, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Robbie M. Andrew, David Bastviken, Antoine Berchet, Grégoire Broquet, Giulia Conchedda, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Gütschow, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Ronny Lauerwald, Tiina Markkanen, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Isabelle Pison, Pierre Regnier, Espen Solum, Marko Scholze, Maria Tenkanen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, and John R. Worden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4325–4350, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of data availability from observation- and inventory-based CH4 emission estimates. It systematically compares them and provides recommendations for robust comparisons, aiming to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC submissions. Anticipating improvements in atmospheric modelling and observations, future developments need to resolve knowledge gaps in both approaches and to better quantify remaining uncertainty.
Esko Karvinen, Leif Backman, Leena Järvi, and Liisa Kulmala
SOIL, 10, 381–406, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We measured and modelled soil respiration, a key part of the biogenic carbon cycle, in different urban green space types to assess its dynamics in urban areas. We discovered surprisingly similar soil respiration across the green space types despite differences in some of its drivers and that irrigation of green spaces notably elevates soil respiration. Our results encourage further research on the topic and especially on the role of irrigation in controlling urban soil respiration.
Justine Trémeau, Beñat Olascoaga, Leif Backman, Esko Karvinen, Henriikka Vekuri, and Liisa Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 21, 949–972, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-949-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied urban lawns and meadows in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. We found that meadows are more resistant to drought events but that they do not increase carbon sequestration compared with lawns. Moreover, the transformation from lawns to meadows did not demonstrate any negative climate effects in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Even though social and economic aspects also steer urban development, these results can guide planning to consider carbon-smart options.
Vilna Tyystjärvi, Pekka Niittynen, Julia Kemppinen, Miska Luoto, Tuuli Rissanen, and Juha Aalto
The Cryosphere, 18, 403–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
At high latitudes, winter ground surface temperatures are strongly controlled by seasonal snow cover and its spatial variation. Here, we measured surface temperatures and snow cover duration in 441 study sites in tundra and boreal regions. Our results show large variations in how much surface temperatures in winter vary depending on the landscape and its impact on snow cover. These results emphasise the importance of understanding microclimates and their drivers under changing winter conditions.
Oona Leppiniemi, Olli Karjalainen, Juha Aalto, Miska Luoto, and Jan Hjort
The Cryosphere, 17, 3157–3176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, suitable environments for palsas and peat plateaus were modeled for the whole Northern Hemisphere. The hotspots of occurrences were in northern Europe, western Siberia, and subarctic Canada. Climate change was predicted to cause almost complete loss of the studied landforms by the late century. Our predictions filled knowledge gaps in the distribution of the landforms, and they can be utilized in estimation of the pace and impacts of the climate change over northern regions.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Matti Kämäräinen, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Markku Kulmala, Ivan Mammarella, Juha Aalto, Henriikka Vekuri, Annalea Lohila, and Anna Lintunen
Biogeosciences, 20, 897–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-897-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-897-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we introduce a new method for modeling the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and a study site located in a boreal forest in southern Finland. Our method yields more accurate results than previous approaches in this context. Accurately estimating carbon exchange is crucial for gaining a better understanding of the role of forests in regulating atmospheric carbon and addressing climate change.
Yao Gao, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Maarit Raivonen, Mika Aurela, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Elyn Humphreys, Annalea Lohila, Tingting Li, Tiina Markkanen, Olli Nevalainen, Mats B. Nilsson, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Aki Tsuruta, Huiyi Yang, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled a process-based peatland CH4 emission model HIMMELI with a state-of-art land surface model JULES. The performance of the coupled model was evaluated at six northern wetland sites. The coupled model is considered to be more appropriate in simulating wetland CH4 emission. In order to improve the simulated CH4 emission, the model requires better representation of the peat soil carbon and hydrologic processes in JULES and the methane production and transportation processes in HIMMELI.
Olli Karjalainen, Juha Aalto, Mikhail Z. Kanevskiy, Miska Luoto, and Jan Hjort
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-144, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of underground ice in the Arctic permafrost has a central role when assessing climate change-induced changes to natural conditions and human activity in the Arctic. Here, we present compilations of field-verified ground ice observations and high-resolution estimates of Northern Hemisphere ground ice content. The data highlight the variability of ground ice contents across the Arctic and provide called-for information to be used in modelling and environmental assessment studies.
Olli Nevalainen, Olli Niemitalo, Istem Fer, Antti Juntunen, Tuomas Mattila, Olli Koskela, Joni Kukkamäki, Layla Höckerstedt, Laura Mäkelä, Pieta Jarva, Laura Heimsch, Henriikka Vekuri, Liisa Kulmala, Åsa Stam, Otto Kuusela, Stephanie Gerin, Toni Viskari, Julius Vira, Jari Hyväluoma, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Annalea Lohila, Tuomas Laurila, Jussi Heinonsalo, Tuula Aalto, Iivari Kunttu, and Jari Liski
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 11, 93–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-93-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Better monitoring of soil carbon sequestration is needed to understand the best carbon farming practices in different soils and climate conditions. We, the Field Observatory Network (FiON), have therefore established a methodology for monitoring and forecasting agricultural carbon sequestration by combining offline and near-real-time field measurements, weather data, satellite imagery, and modeling. To disseminate our work, we built a website called the Field Observatory (fieldobservatory.org).
Vilma Kangasaho, Aki Tsuruta, Leif Backman, Pyry Mäkinen, Sander Houweling, Arjo Segers, Maarten Krol, Ed Dlugokencky, Sylvia Michel, James White, and Tuula Aalto
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-843, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the composition of carbon isotopes can help to better understand the changes in methane budgets. This study investigates how methane sources affect the seasonal cycle of the methane carbon-13 isotope during 2000–2012 using an atmospheric transport model. We found that emissions from both anthropogenic and natural sources contribute. The findings raise a need to revise the magnitudes, proportion, and seasonal cycles of anthropogenic sources and northern wetland emissions.
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Antoine Berchet, Espen Sollum, Rona L. Thompson, Isabelle Pison, Joël Thanwerdas, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Adrien Berchet, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Richard Engelen, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Christoph Gerbig, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Sander Houweling, Ute Karstens, Werner L. Kutsch, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guillaume Monteil, Paul I. Palmer, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Elise Potier, Christian Rödenbeck, Marielle Saunois, Marko Scholze, Aki Tsuruta, and Yuanhong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers.
The ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool. We describe the main structure and functionalities and demonstrate it in a simple academic case.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Cited articles
Aakala, T., Pasanen, L., Helama, S., Vakkari, V., Drobyshev, I., Seppä, H., Kuuluvainen, T., Stivrins, N., Wallenius, T., Vasander, H., and Holmström, L.: Multiscale variation in drought controlled historical forest fire activity in the boreal forests of eastern Fennoscandia, Ecol. Monogr., 88, 74–91, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1276, 2018. a, b
Carmody, C.: Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Predictions Systems, Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group, Scientific Sustainable Development Directory, Ottawa, Ont. Inf. Rep. ST-X-3, Ministery of Supply and Service Canada, https://ostrnrcan-dostrncan.canada.ca/handle/1845/235421 (last access: 30 October 2024), 1992. a
Cecil, D. J.: LIS/OTD 0.5 Degree High Resolution Monthly Climatology (HRMC) [2.3.2015, data set], NASA Global Hydrology Resource Center DAAC, Huntsville, Alabama, USA, https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/hydro/details/lohrmc NASA (last access: 1 December 2023), Global Hydrology Resource Center, https://doi.org/10.5067/LIS/LIS-OTD/DATA303, 2016. a
Crameri, F., Shephard, G., and Heron, P.: The misuse of colour in science communication, Nat. Commun., 11, 5444, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7, 2020. a
de Groot, W. J., Flannigan, M. D., and Cantin, A. S.: Climate change impacts on future boreal fire regimes, Forest Ecol. Manage., 294, 35–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.09.027, 2013. a
Descals, A., Gaveau, D. L. A., Verger, A., Sheil, D., Naito, D., and Peñuelas, J.: Unprecedented fire activity above the Arctic Circle linked to rising temperatures, Science, 378, 532–537, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn9768, 2022. a
Earth System Grid Federation Data Node: Cordex Dataset, Earth System Grid Federation Data Node [data set], https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz/ (last access: 27 February 2020), 2020. a
Elmhagen, B., Kindberg, J., and Hellström, P.: A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra, AMBIO, 44, 39–50, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0606-8, 2015. a
Engelmark, O.: Boreal forest disturbances, in: Ecosystems of disturbed ground, edited by: Walker, L. R., chap. 6, 161–186, Elsevier, 1999. a
European Environment Agency: Corine Land Cover (CLC) 2012, Version 2020_20u1, European Environment Agency [data set], https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc-2012 (last access: 12 June 2020), 2020. a
European Space Agency: Land cover classification gridded maps from 1992 to present derived from satellite observations, Copernicus Climate Data Store [data set], https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/satellite-land-cover (last access: 30 March 2020), 2019. a
Flannigan, M., Cantin, M., Groot, A., Wotton, W., Newbery, M., and Johnston, L.: Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century, Forest Ecol. Manage., 294, 64–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022, 2013. a, b
Goll, D. S., Brovkin, V., Liski, J., Raddatz, T., Thum, T., and Todd-Brown, K. E. O.: Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 29, 1511–1523, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004988, 2015. a
Gromtsev, A.: Natural Disturbance Dynamics in the Boreal Forests of European Russia: a Review, Silva Fennica, 36, 549, https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.549, 2002. a
Hagemann, S. and Stacke, T.: Impact of the soil hydrology scheme on simulated soil moisture memory, Clim. Dynam., 44, 1731–1750, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2221-6, 2015. a
Hantson, S., Lasslop, G., Kloster, S., and Chuvieco, E.: Anthropogenic effects on global mean fire size, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 24, 589–596, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF14208, 2015. a
Hoffmann, P., Reinhart, V., Rechid, D., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Davin, E. L., Asmus, C., Bechtel, B., Böhner, J., Katragkou, E., and Luyssaert, S.: High-resolution land use and land cover dataset for regional climate modelling: historical and future changes in Europe, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3819–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, 2023. a
Hussain, M. and Mahmud, I.: pyMannKendall: a python package for non parametric Mann Kendall family of trend tests, J. Open Source Softw., 4, 1556, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01556, 2019. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K., and Meyer, L. A., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ (last access: 30 October 2024), 2014. a
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O., Bouwer, L., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, 2014. a, b
Jolly, W., Cochrane, M., and Freeborn, P.: Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013, Nat. Commun., 6, 7537, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8537, 2015. a
Jones, B. and O'Neill, B.: Global One-Eighth Degree Population Base Year and Projection Grids Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Revision 01, Palisades, NY, NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) [data set], accessed 18 May 2020, https://doi.org/10.7927/m30p-j498, 2016. a
Kaminski, T., Knorr, W., Schürmann, G., Scholze, M., Rayner, P. J., Zaehle, S., Blessing, S., Dorigo, W., Gayler, V., Giering, R., Gobron, N., Grant, J. P., Heimann, M., Hooker-Stroud, A., Houweling, S., Kato, T., Kattge, J., Kelley, D., Kemp, S., Koffi, E. N., Köstler, C., Mathieu, P.-P., Pinty, B., Reick, C. H., Rödenbeck, C., Schnur, R., Scipal, K., Sebald, C., Stacke, T., van Scheltinga, A. T., Vossbeck, M., Widmann, H., and Ziehn, T.: The BETHY/JSBACH Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System: experiences and challenges, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118, 1414–1426, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20118, 2013. a
Kaplan, J. and New, M.: Arctic climate change with a 2 °C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change, Climatic Change, 79, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9113-7, 2006. a
Kinnunen, O., Backman, L., and Markkanen, T.: Data for manuscript “Projected changes in forest fire season, number of fires and burnt area in Fennoscandia by the 2100” by Kinnunen et al., Finnish Meteorological Institute [data set], https://doi.org/10.57707/FMI-B2SHARE.07695381224049C78BD35198D27AAA25, version 1, 2024. a, b
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E.: Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 927–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, 2017. a
Kulmala, L., Aaltonen, H., Berninger, F., Kieloaho, A.-J., Levula, J., Bäck, J., Hari, P., Kolari, P., Korhonen, J. F., Kulmala, M., Nikinmaa, E., Pihlatie, M., Vesala, T., and Pumpanen, J.: Changes in biogeochemistry and carbon fluxes in a boreal forest after the clear-cutting and partial burning of slash, Ag. Forest Meteorol., 188, 33–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.12.003, 2014. a
Kuuluvainen, T.: Natural Variability of Forests as a Reference for Restoring and Managing Biological Diversity in Boreal Fennoscandia, Silva Fennica, 36, 552, https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.552, 2002. a
Larjavaara, M., Kuuluvainen, T., and Rita, H.: Spatial distribution of lightning-ignited forest fires in Finland, Forest Ecol. Manage., 208, 177–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2004.12.005, 2005a. a, b
Larjavaara, M., Pennanen, J., and Tuomi, T.: Lightning that ignites forest fires in Finland, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 132, 171–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.005, 2005b. a
Lasslop, G. and Kloster, S.: Human impact on wildfires varies between regions and with vegetation productivity, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 115011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8c82, 2017. a, b
Lasslop, G., Thonicke, K., and Kloster, S.: SPITFIRE within the MPI Earth system model: Model development and evaluation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 6, 740–755, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000284, 2014. a, b, c
Lasslop, G., Moeller, T., D'Onofrio, D., Hantson, S., and Kloster, S.: Tropical climate–vegetation–fire relationships: multivariate evaluation of the land surface model JSBACH, Biogeosciences, 15, 5969–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5969-2018, 2018. a, b
Laurila, T. K. and Mäkelä, A.: Thunderstorm observations in Finland – historical observations since 1887, FMI's Climate Bulletin: Research Letters, 1, 4, https://doi.org/10.35614/ISSN-2341-6408-IK-2019-13-RL, 2019. a
Lehtonen, I., Ruosteenoja, K., Venäläinen, A., and Gregow, H.: The projected 21st century forest-fire risk in Finland under different greenhouse gas scenarios, Boreal Environ. Res., 19, 127–139, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285955800_The_projected_21st_century_forest-fire_risk_in_Finland_under_different_greenhouse_gas_scenarios (last access: 30 October 2024), 2014. a
Lehtonen, I., Venäläinen, A., Kämäräinen, M., Peltola, H., and Gregow, H.: Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 239–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016, 2016. a, b
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 998–1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a
Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Batllori, E., Krawchuk, M. A., Van Dorn, J., Ganz, D. J., and Hayhoe, K.: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Ecosphere, 3, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00345.1, 2012. a
Mäkelä, A., Enno, S.-E., and Haapalainen, J.: Nordic Lightning Information System: Thunderstorm climate of Northern Europe for the period 2002–2011, Atmos. Res., 139, 46–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.01.008, 2014. a
Mäkipää, R., Abramoff, R., Adamczyk, B., Baldy, V., Biryol, C., Bosela, M., Casals, P., Yuste, J. C., Dondini, M., Filipek, S., Garcia-Pausas, J., Gros, R., Gömöryová, E., Hashimoto, S., Hassegawa, M., Immonen, P., Laiho, R., Li, H., Li, Q., Luyssaert, S., Menival, C., Mori, T., Naudts, K., Santonja, M., Smolander, A., Toriyama, J., Tupek, B., Ubeda, X., Verkerk, P. J., and Lehtonen, A.: How does management affect soil C sequestration and greenhouse gas fluxes in boreal and temperate forests?: A review, Forest Ecol. Manage., 539, 120637, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120637, 2023. a, b, c
North, M., Collins, B., and Stephens, S.: Using Fire to Increase the Scale, Benefits, and Future Maintenance of Fuels Treatments, J. Forestry, 110, 392–401, https://doi.org/10.5849/jof.12-021, 2012. a
Onderka, M. and Melicherčik, I.: Fire-prone areas delineated from a combination of the Nesterov Fire-risk Rating Index with multispectral satellite data, Appl. Geomat., 2, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12518-009-0014-0, 2010. a
Pierce, E.: Latitudinal Variation of Lightning Parameters, J. Appl. Meteorol., 9, 194–195, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0194:LVOLP>2.0.CO;2, 1970. a
Pérez-Invernón, F., Gordillo-Vázquez, F., Huntrieser, H., and Jöckel, P.: Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change., Nat. Commun., 14, 739, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5, 2023. a
Ramberg, E., Strengbom, J., and Granath, G.: Coordination through databases can improve prescribed burning as a conservation tool to promote forest biodiversity, Ambio, 47, 298–306, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0987-6, 2018. a, b
Reick, C. H., Gayler, V., Goll, D., Hagemann, S., Heidkamp, M., Nabel, J., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., and Wilkenskjeld, S.: JSBACH 3 – The land component of the MPI Earth System Model: Documentation of version 3.2, Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung, MPG PuRe, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3279802, 2021. a, b
Rothermel, R.: A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in wildland fuels, Res. Pap. INT-115. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 40 pp., https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/32533 (last access: 30 October 2024), 1972. a
Running, S. W., Nemani, R. R., and Hungerford, R. D.: Extrapolation of synoptic meteorological data in mountainous terrain and its use for simulating forest evapotranspiration and photosynthesis, Can. J. Forest Res., 17, 472–483, https://doi.org/10.1139/x87-081, 1987. a
Ruosteenoja, K., Jylhä, K., and Kämäräinen, M.: Climate projections for Finland under the RCP forcing scenarios, Geophysica, 51, 17–50, 2016. a
Rädler, A., Groenemeijer, P., Faust, E., Sausen, R., and Púčik, T.: Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2, 30, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7, 2019. a
Samuelsson, P., Jones, C. G., Willén, U., Ullerstig, A., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jansson, E., Kjellström, C., Nikulin, G., and Wyser, K.: The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance, Tellus A, 63, 4–23, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x, 2011. a
Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Dong, L., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1991–2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010, 2010. a, b, c, d, e, f
Tolonen, K. and Pitkänen, A.: Kulojen toistuvuus ja merkitys jääkauden jälkeisenä aikana Suomessa, Metsätieteen aikakauskirja 2/2004, 224–228, https://doi.org/10.14214/ma.6252, 2004. a
Tuomi, T. and Mäkelä, A.: Thunderstorm Climate of Finland 1998–2007, Geophysica, 44, 67–80, 2008. a
Turetsky, M. R., Harden, J. W., Friedli, H. R., Flannigan, M., Payne, N., Crock, J., and Radke, L.: Wildfires threaten mercury stocks in northern soils, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L16403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025595, 2006. a
Vajda, A., Venäläinen, A., Suomi, I., Junila, P., and Mäkelä, H.: Assessment of forest fire danger in a boreal forest environment: Description and evaluation of the operational system applied in Finland, Meteorol. Appl., 21, 879–887, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1425, 2014. a, b
van Vuuren, D., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S., and Rose, S.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011. a
Veira, A., Lasslop, G., and Kloster, S.: Wildfires in a warmer climate: Emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090–2099, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3195–3223, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024142, 2016. a, b
Venäläinen, A., Lehtonen, I., Laapas, M., Ruosteenoja, K., Tikkanen, O.-P., Viiri, H., Ikonen, V.-P., and Peltola, H.: Climate change induces multiple risks to boreal forests and forestry in Finland: A literature review, Global Change Biology, 26, 4178–4196, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15183, 2020. a, b
Venevsky, S., Thonicke, K., Sitch, S., and Cramer, W.: Simulating fire regimes in human-dominated ecosystems: Iberian Peninsula case study, Glob. Change Biol., 8, 984–998, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00528.x, 2002. a
Xu, J., Morris, P. J., Liu, J., and Holden, J.: PEATMAP: Refining estimates of global peatland distribution based on a meta-analysis, University of Leeds [data set], https://doi.org/10.5518/252, 2017. a
Yang, W., Andréasson, J., Phil Graham, L., Olsson, J., Rosberg, J., and Wetterhall, F.: Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies, Hydrol. Res., 41, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2010.004, 2010. a
Yang, W., Gardelin, M., Olsson, J., and Bosshard, T.: Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2037–2057, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015, 2015. a
Zhou, N., Hu, X., Byskov, I., Næss, J. S., Wu, Q., Zhao, W., and Cherubini, F.: Overview of recent land cover changes, forest harvest areas, and soil erosion trends in Nordic countries, Geography and Sustainability, 2, 163–174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2021.07.001, 2021. a
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase the risk of forest fires. Ecosystem process model simulations are used to project changes in fire occurrence in Fennoscandia under six climate projections. The findings suggest a longer fire season, more fires, and an increase in burnt area towards the end of the century.
Climate change is expected to increase the risk of forest fires. Ecosystem process model...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint