Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Mar 2013
Research article |
| 22 Mar 2013
Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa
F. J. Bragg
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
I. C. Prentice
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
S. P. Harrison
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia
G. Eglinton
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK
Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA
Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Road, Woods Hole, MA 02543-1050, USA
P. N. Foster
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK
F. Rommerskirchen
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment (ICBM), Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, P.O. Box 2503, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany
MARUM, University of Bremen, Leobener Straße, 28359 Bremen, Germany
J. Rullkötter
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment (ICBM), Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, P.O. Box 2503, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany
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Ning Dong, Iain Colin Prentice, Bradley J. Evans, Stefan Caddy-Retalic, Andrew J. Lowe, and Ian J. Wright
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Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
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We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Fergus W. Howell, Alan M. Haywood, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Youichi Kamae, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nan A. Rosenbloom, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 12, 749–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016, 2016
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Simulations of pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene Arctic sea ice by eight GCMs are analysed. Ensemble variability in sea ice extent is greater in the mid-Pliocene summer, when half of the models simulate sea-ice-free conditions. Weaker correlations are seen between sea ice extent and temperatures in the pre-industrial era compared to the mid-Pliocene. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.
A. V. Gallego-Sala, D. J. Charman, S. P. Harrison, G. Li, and I. C. Prentice
Clim. Past, 12, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-129-2016, 2016
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It has become a well-established paradigm that blanket bog landscapes in the British Isles are a result of forest clearance by early human populations. We provide a novel test of this hypothesis using results from bioclimatic modelling driven by cimate reconstructions compared with a database of peat initiation dates. Both results show similar patterns of peat initiation over time and space. This suggests that climate was the main driver of blanket bog inception and not human disturbance.
B. A. A. Hoogakker, R. S. Smith, J. S. Singarayer, R. Marchant, I. C. Prentice, J. R. M. Allen, R. S. Anderson, S. A. Bhagwat, H. Behling, O. Borisova, M. Bush, A. Correa-Metrio, A. de Vernal, J. M. Finch, B. Fréchette, S. Lozano-Garcia, W. D. Gosling, W. Granoszewski, E. C. Grimm, E. Grüger, J. Hanselman, S. P. Harrison, T. R. Hill, B. Huntley, G. Jiménez-Moreno, P. Kershaw, M.-P. Ledru, D. Magri, M. McKenzie, U. Müller, T. Nakagawa, E. Novenko, D. Penny, L. Sadori, L. Scott, J. Stevenson, P. J. Valdes, M. Vandergoes, A. Velichko, C. Whitlock, and C. Tzedakis
Clim. Past, 12, 51–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-51-2016, 2016
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In this paper we use two climate models to test how Earth’s vegetation responded to changes in climate over the last 120 000 years, looking at warm interglacial climates like today, cold ice-age glacial climates, and intermediate climates. The models agree well with observations from pollen, showing smaller forested areas and larger desert areas during cold periods. Forests store most terrestrial carbon; the terrestrial carbon lost during cold climates was most likely relocated to the oceans.
M. G. De Kauwe, S.-X. Zhou, B. E. Medlyn, A. J. Pitman, Y.-P. Wang, R. A. Duursma, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences, 12, 7503–7518, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015, 2015
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Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitivity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art models currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. Our results indicate that models will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3621-2015, 2015
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We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
T.-T. Meng, H. Wang, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, J. Ni, and G. Wang
Biogeosciences, 12, 5339–5352, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5339-2015, 2015
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By analysing the quantitative leaf-traits along extensive temperature and moisture gradients with generalized linear models, we found that metabolism-related traits are universally acclimated to environmental conditions, rather than being fixed within plant functional types. The results strongly support a move towards Dynamic Global Vegetation Models in which continuous, adaptive trait variation provides the fundamental mechanism for changes in ecosystem properties along environmental gradients.
I. C. Prentice, X. Liang, B. E. Medlyn, and Y.-P. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5987–6005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015, 2015
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Land surface models (LSMs) describe how carbon and water fluxes react to environmental change. They are key component of climate models, yet they differ enormously. Many perform poorly, despite having many parameters. We outline a development strategy emphasizing robustness, reliability and realism, none of which is guaranteed by complexity alone. We propose multiple constraints, benchmarking and data assimilation, and representing unresolved processes stochastically, as tools in this endeavour.
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-4769-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
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Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
I. Hessler, S. P. Harrison, M. Kucera, C. Waelbroeck, M.-T. Chen, C. Anderson, A. de Vernal, B. Fréchette, A. Cloke-Hayes, G. Leduc, and L. Londeix
Clim. Past, 10, 2237–2252, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2237-2014, 2014
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and D. Falster
Biogeosciences, 11, 6711–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6711-2014, 2014
M. Martin Calvo, I. C. Prentice, and S. P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 11, 6017–6027, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6017-2014, 2014
H. Wang, I. C. Prentice, and T. W. Davis
Biogeosciences, 11, 5987–6001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5987-2014, 2014
D. I. Kelley, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2411–2433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2411-2014, 2014
I. Bistinas, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and J. M. C. Pereira
Biogeosciences, 11, 5087–5101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, 2014
P. N. Foster, I. C. Prentice, C. Morfopoulos, M. Siddall, and M. van Weele
Biogeosciences, 11, 3437–3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3437-2014, 2014
E. Journet, Y. Balkanski, and S. P. Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3801–3816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3801-2014, 2014
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-551-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
A. M. Ukkola and I. C. Prentice
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4177–4187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013, 2013
H. Wang, I. C. Prentice, and J. Ni
Biogeosciences, 10, 5817–5830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5817-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5817-2013, 2013
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
D. I. Kelley, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, H. Wang, M. Simard, J. B. Fisher, and K. O. Willis
Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013
D. J. Charman, D. W. Beilman, M. Blaauw, R. K. Booth, S. Brewer, F. M. Chambers, J. A. Christen, A. Gallego-Sala, S. P. Harrison, P. D. M. Hughes, S. T. Jackson, A. Korhola, D. Mauquoy, F. J. G. Mitchell, I. C. Prentice, M. van der Linden, F. De Vleeschouwer, Z. C. Yu, J. Alm, I. E. Bauer, Y. M. C. Corish, M. Garneau, V. Hohl, Y. Huang, E. Karofeld, G. Le Roux, J. Loisel, R. Moschen, J. E. Nichols, T. M. Nieminen, G. M. MacDonald, N. R. Phadtare, N. Rausch, Ü. Sillasoo, G. T. Swindles, E.-S. Tuittila, L. Ukonmaanaho, M. Väliranta, S. van Bellen, B. van Geel, D. H. Vitt, and Y. Zhao
Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Burned Area and Carbon Emissions Across Northwestern Boreal North America from 2001–2019
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
Acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient and biomass declines in a warming Mediterranean Sea
Ocean alkalinity enhancement – avoiding runaway CaCO3 precipitation during quick and hydrated lime dissolution
Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models
Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data
Contrasting responses of phytoplankton productivity between coastal and offshore surface waters in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to short-term seawater acidification
Modeling interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharges in the Kapuas River delta
The application of dendrometers to alpine dwarf shrubs – a case study to investigate stem growth responses to environmental conditions
Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
Evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of blue intensity on multiple conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand
Anthropogenic CO2-mediated freshwater acidification limits survival, calcification, metabolism, and behaviour in stress-tolerant freshwater crustaceans
Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes
On the influence of erect shrubs on the irradiance profile in snow
Tolerance of tropical marine microphytobenthos exposed to elevated irradiance and temperature
Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe
Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century
Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2
Effects of elevated CO2 and extreme climatic events on forage quality and in vitro rumen fermentation in permanent grassland
Cushion bog plant community responses to passive warming in southern Patagonia
Blue carbon stocks and exchanges along the California coast
Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming
Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model
Does drought advance the onset of autumn leaf senescence in temperate deciduous forest trees?
Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks in CMIP6 models: contributions from different basins
Sensitivity of 21st-century projected ocean new production changes to idealized biogeochemical model structure
Ocean carbon uptake under aggressive emission mitigation
Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration
Wetter environment and increased grazing reduced the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016
Physiological responses of Skeletonema costatum to the interactions of seawater acidification and the combination of photoperiod and temperature
Technical note: Interpreting pH changes
Timing of drought in the growing season and strong legacy effects determine the annual productivity of temperate grasses in a changing climate
Contrasting responses of woody and herbaceous vegetation to altered rainfall characteristics in the Sahel
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
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Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
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Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
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CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
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Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
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Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-18, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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A promising strategy to mitigate burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. A reduced absorption of solar radiation would be the consequence, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study we can show that there is a certain cooling effect of deciduous forest on heat period intensities in Europe, however, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
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This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
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The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
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Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
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Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
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The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
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Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-364, 2022
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Here we developed a new burned area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 million hectares burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m-2. We found larger fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned area and combustion data sets described here can be used for local to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
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The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
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To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-168, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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Our findings suggest that carbon cycle feedbacks differ under increasing and decreasing atmospheric CO2 levels, and the sign and magnitude of the differences depends on the approach taken to quantify the feedbacks. Our study proposes a more accurate approach for quantifying carbon cycle feedbacks under decreasing CO2 levels and provides insights into the role of carbon cycle feedbacks in determining the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
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Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Charly A. Moras, Lennart T. Bach, Tyler Cyronak, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai G. Schulz
Biogeosciences, 19, 3537–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, 2022
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This research presents the first laboratory results of quick and hydrated lime dissolution in natural seawater. These two minerals are of great interest for ocean alkalinity enhancement, a strategy aiming to decrease atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Following the dissolution of these minerals, we identified several hurdles and presented ways to avoid them or completely negate them. Finally, we proceeded to various simulations in today’s oceans to implement the strategy at its highest potential.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
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Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
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In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
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To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil David Hartstein, Aazani Mujahid, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 3131–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, 2022
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Deep coastal inlets are important sites for regulating land-based organic pollution before it enters coastal oceans. This study focused on how large climate forces, rainfall, and river flow impact organic loading and oxygen conditions in a coastal inlet in Tasmania. Increases in rainfall were linked to higher organic loading and lower oxygen in basin waters. Finally we observed a significant correlation between the Southern Annular Mode and oxygen concentrations in the system's basin waters.
Guang Gao, Tifeng Wang, Jiazhen Sun, Xin Zhao, Lifang Wang, Xianghui Guo, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 19, 2795–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, 2022
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After conducting large-scale deck-incubation experiments, we found that seawater acidification (SA) increased primary production (PP) in coastal waters but reduced it in pelagic zones, which is mainly regulated by local pH, light intensity, salinity, and community structure. In future oceans, SA combined with decreased upward transports of nutrients may synergistically reduce PP in pelagic zones.
Joko Sampurno, Valentin Vallaeys, Randy Ardianto, and Emmanuel Hanert
Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022
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This study is the first assessment to evaluate the interactions between river discharges, tides, and storm surges and how they can drive compound flooding in the Kapuas River delta. We successfully created a realistic hydrodynamic model whose domain covers the land–sea continuum using a wetting–drying algorithm in a data-scarce environment. We then proposed a new method to delineate compound flooding hazard zones along the river channels based on the maximum water level profiles.
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
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Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
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The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
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Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
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We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Alex R. Quijada-Rodriguez, Pou-Long Kuan, Po-Hsuan Sung, Mao-Ting Hsu, Garett J. P. Allen, Pung Pung Hwang, Yung-Che Tseng, and Dirk Weihrauch
Biogeosciences, 18, 6287–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, 2021
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Anthropogenic CO2 is chronically acidifying aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to determine the impact of future freshwater acidification on the physiology and behaviour of an important aquaculture crustacean, Chinese mitten crabs. We report that elevated freshwater CO2 levels lead to impairment of calcification, locomotor behaviour, and survival and reduced metabolism in this species. Results suggest that present-day calcifying invertebrates could be heavily affected by freshwater acidification.
Junrong Zha and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 18, 6245–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, 2021
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This study incorporated moss into an extant biogeochemistry model to simulate the role of moss in carbon dynamics in the Arctic. The interactions between higher plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients are considered in our study. We found that, compared with the previous model without moss, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last century and this century.
Maria Belke-Brea, Florent Domine, Ghislain Picard, Mathieu Barrere, and Laurent Arnaud
Biogeosciences, 18, 5851–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, 2021
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Expanding shrubs in the Arctic change snowpacks into a mix of snow, impurities and buried branches. Snow is a translucent medium into which light penetrates and gets partly absorbed by branches or impurities. Measurements of light attenuation in snow in Northern Quebec, Canada, showed (1) black-carbon-dominated light attenuation in snowpacks without shrubs and (2) buried branches influence radiation attenuation in snow locally, leading to melting and pockets of large crystals close to branches.
Sazlina Salleh and Andrew McMinn
Biogeosciences, 18, 5313–5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, 2021
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The benthic diatom communities in Tanjung Rhu, Malaysia, were regularly exposed to high light and temperature variability during the tidal cycle, resulting in low photosynthetic efficiency. We examined the impact of high temperatures on diatoms' photosynthetic capacities, and temperatures beyond 50 °C caused severe photoinhibition. At the same time, those diatoms exposed to temperatures of 40 °C did not show any sign of photoinhibition.
Cornelius Senf and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 18, 5223–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, 2021
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Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018. We show that this drought has increased forest disturbances across Europe, especially central and eastern Europe. Disturbance levels observed 2018–2020 were the highest on record for 30 years. Increased forest disturbances were correlated with low moisture and high atmospheric water demand. The unprecedented impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbances demonstrate an urgent need to adapt Europe’s forests to a hotter and drier future.
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
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Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Vincent Niderkorn, Annette Morvan-Bertrand, Aline Le Morvan, Angela Augusti, Marie-Laure Decau, and Catherine Picon-Cochard
Biogeosciences, 18, 4841–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, 2021
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Climate change can change vegetation characteristics in grasslands with a potential impact on forage chemical composition and quality, as well as its use by ruminants. Using controlled conditions mimicking a future climatic scenario, we show that forage quality and ruminant digestion are affected in opposite ways by elevated atmospheric CO2 and an extreme event (heat wave, severe drought), indicating that different factors of climate change have to be considered together.
Verónica Pancotto, David Holl, Julio Escobar, María Florencia Castagnani, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 18, 4817–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, 2021
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We investigated the response of a wetland plant community to elevated temperature conditions in a cushion bog on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. We measured carbon dioxide fluxes at experimentally warmed plots and at control plots. Warmed plant communities sequestered between 55 % and 85 % less carbon dioxide than untreated control cushions over the main growing season. Our results suggest that even moderate future warming could decrease the carbon sink function of austral cushion bogs.
Melissa A. Ward, Tessa M. Hill, Chelsey Souza, Tessa Filipczyk, Aurora M. Ricart, Sarah Merolla, Lena R. Capece, Brady C O'Donnell, Kristen Elsmore, Walter C. Oechel, and Kathryn M. Beheshti
Biogeosciences, 18, 4717–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, 2021
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Salt marshes and seagrass meadows ("blue carbon" habitats) can sequester and store high levels of organic carbon (OC), helping to mitigate climate change. In California blue carbon sediments, we quantified OC storage and exchange between these habitats. We find that (1) these salt marshes store about twice as much OC as seagrass meadows do and (2), while OC from seagrass meadows is deposited into neighboring salt marshes, little of this material is sequestered as "long-term" carbon.
Damien Couespel, Marina Lévy, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 18, 4321–4349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, 2021
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An alarming consequence of climate change is the oceanic primary production decline projected by Earth system models. These coarse-resolution models parameterize oceanic eddies. Here, idealized simulations of global warming with increasing resolution show that the decline in primary production in the eddy-resolved simulations is half as large as in the eddy-parameterized simulations. This stems from the high sensitivity of the subsurface nutrient transport to model resolution.
Wu Ma, Lu Zhai, Alexandria Pivovaroff, Jacquelyn Shuman, Polly Buotte, Junyan Ding, Bradley Christoffersen, Ryan Knox, Max Moritz, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles D. Koven, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 18, 4005–4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, 2021
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We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in live fuel moisture and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
Bertold Mariën, Inge Dox, Hans J. De Boeck, Patrick Willems, Sebastien Leys, Dimitri Papadimitriou, and Matteo Campioli
Biogeosciences, 18, 3309–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, 2021
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The drivers of the onset of autumn leaf senescence for several deciduous tree species are still unclear. Therefore, we addressed (i) if drought impacts the timing of autumn leaf senescence and (ii) if the relationship between drought and autumn leaf senescence depends on the tree species. Our study suggests that the timing of autumn leaf senescence is conservative across years and species and even independent of drought stress.
Anna Katavouta and Richard G. Williams
Biogeosciences, 18, 3189–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, 2021
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Diagnostics of the latest-generation Earth system models reveal the ocean will continue to absorb a large fraction of the anthropogenic carbon released to the atmosphere in the next century, with the Atlantic Ocean storing a large amount of this carbon relative to its size. The ability of the ocean to absorb carbon will reduce in the future as the ocean warms and acidifies. This reduction is larger in the Atlantic Ocean due to a weakening of the meridional overturning with changes in climate.
Genevieve Jay Brett, Daniel B. Whitt, Matthew C. Long, Frank Bryan, Kate Feloy, and Kelvin J. Richards
Biogeosciences, 18, 3123–3145, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3123-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3123-2021, 2021
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We quantify one form of uncertainty in modeled 21st-century changes in phytoplankton growth. The supply of nutrients from deep to surface waters decreases in the warmer future ocean, but the effect on phytoplankton growth also depends on changes in available light, how much light and nutrient the plankton need, and how fast they can grow. These phytoplankton properties can be summarized as a biological timescale: when it is short, future growth decreases twice as much as when it is long.
Sean M. Ridge and Galen A. McKinley
Biogeosciences, 18, 2711–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021, 2021
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Approximately 40 % of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have been absorbed by the ocean. The goal of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement is to reduce humanity's emissions so as to limit global warming to no more than 2 °C, and ideally less than 1.5 °C. If we achieve this level of mitigation, the ocean's uptake of carbon will be strongly reduced. Excess carbon trapped in the near-surface ocean will begin to mix back to the surface and will limit additional uptake.
Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, and Simon L. Lewis
Biogeosciences, 18, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, 2021
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Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.
Wei Min Hao, Matthew C. Reeves, L. Scott Baggett, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Bryce L. Nordgren, Alexander Petkov, Rachel E. Corley, Florent Mouillot, Shawn P. Urbanski, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 18, 2559–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, 2021
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We examined the trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016. The annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period under analysis. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan dominated the fire activity, comprising 47 % of the area burned but accounting for 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and the increase in grazing livestock in Kazakhstan are the major factors contributing to the decline in the area burned.
Hangxiao Li, Tianpeng Xu, Jing Ma, Futian Li, and Juntian Xu
Biogeosciences, 18, 1439–1449, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1439-2021, 2021
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Few studies have investigated effects of ocean acidification and seasonal changes in temperature and day length on marine diatoms. We cultured a marine diatom under two CO2 levels and three combinations of temperature and day length, simulating different seasons, to investigate combined effects of these factors. Acidification had contrasting effects under different combinations, indicating that the future ocean may show different effects on diatoms in different clusters of factors.
Andrea J. Fassbender, James C. Orr, and Andrew G. Dickson
Biogeosciences, 18, 1407–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021, 2021
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A decline in upper-ocean pH with time is typically ascribed to ocean acidification. A more quantitative interpretation is often confused by failing to recognize the implications of pH being a logarithmic transform of hydrogen ion concentration rather than an absolute measure. This can lead to an unwitting misinterpretation of pH data. We provide three real-world examples illustrating this and recommend the reporting of both hydrogen ion concentration and pH in studies of ocean chemical change.
Claudia Hahn, Andreas Lüscher, Sara Ernst-Hasler, Matthias Suter, and Ansgar Kahmen
Biogeosciences, 18, 585–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-585-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-585-2021, 2021
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While existing studies focus on the immediate effects of drought events on grassland productivity, long-term effects are mostly neglected. But, to conclude universal outcomes, studies must consider comprehensive ecosystem mechanisms. In our study, we found that the resistance of growth rates to drought in grasses varies across seasons, and positive legacy effects of drought indicate a high resilience. The high resilience compensates for immediate drought effects on grasses to a large extent.
Wim Verbruggen, Guy Schurgers, Stéphanie Horion, Jonas Ardö, Paulo N. Bernardino, Bernard Cappelaere, Jérôme Demarty, Rasmus Fensholt, Laurent Kergoat, Thomas Sibret, Torbern Tagesson, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 18, 77–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-77-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-77-2021, 2021
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A large part of Earth's land surface is covered by dryland ecosystems, which are subject to climate extremes that are projected to increase under future climate scenarios. By using a mathematical vegetation model, we studied the impact of single years of extreme rainfall on the vegetation in the Sahel. We found a contrasting response of grasses and trees to these extremes, strongly dependent on the way precipitation is spread over the rainy season, as well as a long-term impact on CO2 uptake.
Cited articles
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Archer, S., Boutton, T. W., and Hibbard, K. A.: Trees in grasslands: biogeochemical consequences of woody plant expansion, in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles in the Climate System, edited by: Schulze, E.-D., Heimann, M., Harrison, S. P., Holland, E. A., Lloyd, J., Prentice, I. C., and Schimel, D. S., Academic Press, San Diego, 115–137, 2001.
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Bond, W. J.: What limits trees in C4 grasslands and savannas?, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 39, 641–659, 2008.
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