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Volume 11, issue 17
Biogeosciences, 11, 4817–4828, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 11, 4817–4828, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 11 Sep 2014
Research article | 11 Sep 2014
Comparing the influence of net and gross anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on the carbon cycle in the MPI-ESM
S. Wilkenskjeld et al.
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Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
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We discuss the representation of wildfire emission heights in global climate models. Our implementation of a simple, semi-empirical plume height parametrization in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 shows reasonable agreement with observations and with a more complex plume rise model. In contrast, prescribed emission heights, which do not consider the intensity of individual fires, fail to adequately simulate global plume height patterns. Diurnal and seasonal cycles are of minor importance.
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Clim. Past, 11, 781–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, 2015
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Lena Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-229, 2020
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Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
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Johannes Winckler, Christian H. Reick, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Alessandro Cescatti, Paul C. Stoy, Quentin Lejeune, Thomas Raddatz, Andreas Chlond, Marvin Heidkamp, and Julia Pongratz
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Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
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Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
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Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, and Christian Reick
Clim. Past, 14, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1051-2018, 2018
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We find a rapid increase in simulated dust deposition between 6 and
4 ka BP that is fairly consistent with an abrupt change in dust deposition that was observed in marine sediment records at around 5 ka BP. This rapid change is caused by a rapid increase in simulated dust emissions in the western Sahara due to a fast decline in vegetation cover and a locally strong reduction of lake area. Our study identifies spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the transition of the North African landscape.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Sirisha Kalidindi, Christian H. Reick, Thomas Raddatz, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 739–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-739-2018, 2018
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Using climate simulations, we investigate the role of water recycling in shaping the climate of low-obliquity Earth-like terra-planets. By such a mechanism feeding water back from the extra-tropics to the tropics, the planet can assume two drastically different climate states differing by more than 35 K in global temperature. We describe the bifurcation between the two states occurring upon changes in surface albedo and argue that the bistability hints at a wider habitable zone for such planets.
Markus Adloff, Christian H. Reick, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-413-2018, 2018
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Computer simulations show that during an ice age a strong atmospheric CO2 increase would have resulted in stronger carbon uptake of the continents than today. Causes are the larger potential of glacial vegetation to increase its photosynthetic efficiency under increasing CO2 and the smaller amount of carbon in extratropical soils during an ice age that can be released under greenhouse warming. Hence, for different climates the Earth system is differently sensitive to carbon cycle perturbations.
Vivienne P. Groner, Thomas Raddatz, Christian H. Reick, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 15, 1947–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1947-2018, 2018
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We show that plant functional diversity significantly affects climate–vegetation interaction and the climate–vegetation system stability in response to external forcing using a series of coupled land–atmosphere simulation. Our findings raise the question of how realistically Earth system models can actually represent climate–vegetation interaction, considering the incomplete representation of plant functional diversity in the current generation of land surface models.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
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The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
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We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
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Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Victoria Naipal, Christian Reick, Kristof Van Oost, Thomas Hoffmann, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 407–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-407-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-407-2016, 2016
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We present a new large-scale coarse-resolution sediment budget model that is compatible with Earth system models and simulates sediment dynamics in floodplains and on hillslopes. We applied this model on the Rhine catchment for the last millennium, and found that the model reproduces the spatial distribution of sediment storage and the scaling relationships as found in observations. We also identified that land use change explains most of the temporal variability in sediment storage.
Sabine Egerer, Martin Claussen, Christian Reick, and Tanja Stanelle
Clim. Past, 12, 1009–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1009-2016, 2016
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We demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine sediment cores and Saharan land surface by simulating the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2.1. Mid-Holocene surface characteristics, including vegetation cover and lake surface area, are derived from proxy data and simulations.
T. Brücher, M. Claussen, and T. Raddatz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 769–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-769-2015, 2015
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A major link between climate and humans in northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, is land use. We assess possible feedbacks between the type of land use and harvest intensity and climate by analysing a series of idealized GCM experiments using the MPI-ESM. Our study suggests marginal feedback between land use changes and climate changes triggered by strong greenhouse gas emissions.
V. P. Groner, M. Claussen, and C. Reick
Clim. Past, 11, 1361–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1361-2015, 2015
V. Naipal, C. Reick, J. Pongratz, and K. Van Oost
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2893–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2893-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2893-2015, 2015
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We adjusted the topographical and rainfall erosivity factors that are the triggers of erosion in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model to make the model better applicable at coarse resolution on a global scale. The adjusted RUSLE model compares much better to current high resolution estimates of soil erosion in the USA and Europe. It therefore provides a basis for estimating past and future global impacts of soil erosion on climate with the use of Earth system models.
A. Veira, S. Kloster, S. Wilkenskjeld, and S. Remy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7155–7171, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7155-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7155-2015, 2015
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We discuss the representation of wildfire emission heights in global climate models. Our implementation of a simple, semi-empirical plume height parametrization in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 shows reasonable agreement with observations and with a more complex plume rise model. In contrast, prescribed emission heights, which do not consider the intensity of individual fires, fail to adequately simulate global plume height patterns. Diurnal and seasonal cycles are of minor importance.
S. Kloster, T. Brücher, V. Brovkin, and S. Wilkenskjeld
Clim. Past, 11, 781–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, 2015
M. Baudena, S. C. Dekker, P. M. van Bodegom, B. Cuesta, S. I. Higgins, V. Lehsten, C. H. Reick, M. Rietkerk, S. Scheiter, Z. Yin, M. A. Zavala, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 1833–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, 2015
F. S. R. Pausata, M. Gaetani, G. Messori, S. Kloster, and F. J. Dentener
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1725–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, 2015
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our study suggests that future aerosol abatement may be the primary driver of increased blocking events over the western Mediterranean. This modification of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector leads to more stagnant weather conditions that favour air pollutant accumulation especially in the western Mediterranean sector. Changes in atmospheric circulation should therefore be included in future air pollution mitigation assessments.
L. R. Boysen, V. Brovkin, V. K. Arora, P. Cadule, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, E. Kato, J. Pongratz, and V. Gayler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 309–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-309-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-309-2014, 2014
T. Brücher, V. Brovkin, S. Kloster, J. R. Marlon, and M. J. Power
Clim. Past, 10, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-811-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-811-2014, 2014
J. Pongratz, C. H. Reick, R. A. Houghton, and J. I. House
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014, 2014
H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4133–4142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4133-2013, 2013
H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5567–5585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5567-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5567-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models
Ecosystem physio-phenology revealed using circular statistics
Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover
Characterizing deepwater oxygen variability and seafloor community responses using a novel autonomous lander
Physical and biogeochemical impacts of RCP8.5 scenario in the Peru upwelling system
Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2
Foraminiferal holobiont thermal tolerance under future warming – roommate problems or successful collaboration?
Impacts of enhanced weathering on biomass production for negative emission technologies and soil hydrology
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers
Is deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline?
Spatio-temporal variations and uncertainty in land surface modelling for high latitudes: univariate response analysis
Microstructure and composition of marine aggregates as co-determinants for vertical particulate organic carbon transfer in the global ocean
Quantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003
Reviews and syntheses: How do abiotic and biotic processes respond to climatic variations in the Nam Co catchment (Tibetan Plateau)?
Simulation of factors affecting Emiliania huxleyi blooms in Arctic and sub-Arctic seas by CMIP5 climate models: model validation and selection
Particulate trace metal dynamics in response to increased CO2 and iron availability in a coastal mesocosm experiment
Zooplankton diel vertical migration and downward C flux into the oxygen minimum zone in the highly productive upwelling region off northern Chile
A meta-analysis of microcosm experiments shows that dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production in polar waters is insensitive to ocean acidification
Forest aboveground biomass stock and resilience in a tropical landscape of Thailand
Enhanced Weathering and related element fluxes – a cropland mesocosm approach
Trees do not always act their age: size-deterministic tree ring standardization for long-term trend estimation in shade-tolerant trees
Rapid environmental responses to climate-induced hydrographic changes in the Baltic Sea entrance
Trend analysis of the airborne fraction and sink rate of anthropogenically released CO2
Multi-decadal changes in structural complexity following mass coral mortality on a Caribbean reef
Dissolved organic nutrients dominate melting surface ice of the Dark Zone (Greenland Ice Sheet)
Ideas and perspectives: Synergies from co-deployment of negative emission technologies
Assessment of time of emergence of anthropogenic deoxygenation and warming: insights from a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE
Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia – a genetic and simulation-based study
Simulating growth-based harvest adaptive to future climate change
Monitoring changes in forestry and seasonal snow using surface albedo during 1982–2016 as an indicator
Ocean acidification reduces hardness and stiffness of the Portuguese oyster shell with impaired microstructure: a hierarchical analysis
Legacies of past land use have a stronger effect on forest carbon exchange than future climate change in a temperate forest landscape
Reviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions
Variable metabolic responses of Skagerrak invertebrates to low O2 and high CO2 scenarios
Ocean acidification increases the sensitivity of and variability in physiological responses of an intertidal limpet to thermal stress
Comparing soil carbon loss through respiration and leaching under extreme precipitation events in arid and semiarid grasslands
Increasing coastal slump activity impacts the release of sediment and organic carbon into the Arctic Ocean
The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model
Simultaneous shifts in elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids of Emiliania huxleyi in response to environmental changes
Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel
Impact of diurnal temperature fluctuations on larval settlement and growth of the reef coral Pocillopora damicornis
Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production
Retrogressive thaw slumps temper dissolved organic carbon delivery to streams of the Peel Plateau, NWT, Canada
Effects of carbon turnover time on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage
The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario
A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature
Isoprene emission and photosynthesis during heatwaves and drought in black locust
Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks
Soil nitrogen transformation responses to seasonal precipitation changes are regulated by changes in functional microbial abundance in a subtropical forest
Low planktic foraminiferal diversity and abundance observed in a spring 2013 west–east Mediterranean Sea plankton tow transect
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Daniel E. Pabon-Moreno, Talie Musavi, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, Christine Römermann, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 3991–4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, 2020
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Ecosystem CO2 uptake changes in time depending on climate conditions. In this study, we analyze how different climate variables affect the timing when CO2 uptake is at a maximum (DOYGPPmax). We found that the joint effects of radiation, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit are the most relevant controlling factors of DOYGPPmax and that if they increase, DOYGPPmax will happen earlier. These results help us to better understand how CO2 uptake could be affected by climate change.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Natalya D. Gallo, Kevin Hardy, Nicholas C. Wegner, Ashley Nicoll, Haleigh Yang, and Lisa A. Levin
Biogeosciences, 17, 3943–3960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3943-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3943-2020, 2020
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Environmental exposure histories can affect organismal sensitivity to climate change and ocean deoxygenation. The natural variability of environmental conditions for nearshore deep-sea habitats is poorly known due to technological challenges. We develop and test a novel, autonomous, hand-deployable lander outfitted with environmental sensors and a camera system and use it to characterize high-frequency oxygen, temperature, and pH variability at 100–400 m as well as seafloor community responses.
Vincent Echevin, Manon Gévaudan, Dante Espinoza-Morriberón, Jorge Tam, Olivier Aumont, Dimitri Gutierrez, and François Colas
Biogeosciences, 17, 3317–3341, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3317-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3317-2020, 2020
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The coasts of Peru encompass the richest fisheries in the entire ocean. It is therefore very important for this country to understand how the nearshore marine ecosystem may evolve under climate change. Fine-scale numerical models are very useful because they can represent precisely the evolution of key parameters such as temperature, water oxygenation, and plankton biomass. Here we study the evolution of the Peruvian marine ecosystem in the 21st century under the worst-case climate scenario.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Doron Pinko, Sigal Abramovich, and Danna Titelboim
Biogeosciences, 17, 2341–2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2341-2020, 2020
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Future warming threatens many marine organisms; among these are large benthic foraminifera. These symbiont-bearing protists are major carbonate producers and ecosystem engineers. To assess the relative contribution of host and symbiont algae to the holobiont thermal tolerance, we evaluated the calcification rate and photosynthetic activity under future warming scenarios.
Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Kristine Karstens, Alexander Popp, Lena R. Boysen, Pete Smith, and Daniel Goll
Biogeosciences, 17, 2107–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, 2020
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Biomass-based terrestrial negative emission technologies (tNETS) have high potential to sequester CO2. Many CO2 uptake estimates do not include the effect of nutrient deficiencies in soils on biomass production. We show that nutrients can be partly resupplied by enhanced weathering (EW) rock powder application, increasing the effectiveness of tNETs. Depending on the deployed amounts of rock powder, EW could also improve soil hydrology, adding a new dimension to the coupling of tNETs with EW.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
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Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Angélique Hameau, Thomas L. Frölicher, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 1877–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, 2020
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Ocean deoxygenation and warming are observed and projected to intensify under continued greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas temperature is considered the main climate change indicator, we show that in certain regions, thermocline doxygenation may be detectable before warming.
Didier G. Leibovici, Shaun Quegan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Maria Val Martin, Mathieu Guimberteau, Arsène Druel, Dan Zhu, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 17, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, 2020
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Analysing the impact of environmental changes due to climate change, e.g. geographical spread of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) and agriculture crop modelling, may require land surface modelling (LSM) to predict future land surface conditions. There are multiple LSMs to choose from. The paper proposes a multivariate spatio-temporal data science method to understand the inherent uncertainties in four LSMs and the variations between them in Nordic areas for the net primary production.
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 17, 1765–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, 2020
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Marine micro-algae bind carbon dioxide, CO2. During their decay, snowflake-like aggregates form that sink, remineralize and transport organically bound CO2 to depth; this is referred to as the biological carbon pump. In our model study, we elucidate how variable aggregate composition impacts the global pattern of vertical carbon fluxes. Our mechanistic model approach advances the representation of the global biological carbon pump and promotes a more realistic projection under climate change.
Allan Buras, Anja Rammig, and Christian S. Zang
Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020
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This study compares the climatic conditions and ecosystem response of the extreme European drought of 2018 with the previous extreme drought of 2003. Using gridded climate data and satellite-based remote sensing information, our analyses qualify 2018 as the new European record drought with wide-ranging negative impacts on European ecosystems. Given the observation of forest-legacy effects in 2019 we call for Europe-wide forest monitoring to assess forest vulnerability to climate change.
Sten Anslan, Mina Azizi Rad, Johannes Buckel, Paula Echeverria Galindo, Jinlei Kai, Wengang Kang, Laura Keys, Philipp Maurischat, Felix Nieberding, Eike Reinosch, Handuo Tang, Tuong Vi Tran, Yuyang Wang, and Antje Schwalb
Biogeosciences, 17, 1261–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1261-2020, 2020
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Due to the high elevation, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is affected more strongly than the global average by climate warming. As a result of increasing air temperature, several environmental processes have accelerated, such as melting glaciers, thawing permafrost and grassland degradation. We review several modern and paleoenvironmental changes forced by climate warming in the lake system of Nam Co to shape our understanding of global warming effects on current and future geobiodiversity.
Natalia Gnatiuk, Iuliia Radchenko, Richard Davy, Evgeny Morozov, and Leonid Bobylev
Biogeosciences, 17, 1199–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1199-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1199-2020, 2020
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We analysed the ability of 34 climate models to reproduce main factors affecting the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi blooms in six Arctic and sub-Arctic seas. Furthermore, we proposed a procedure of ranking and selecting these models based on the model’s skill in reproducing 10 important oceanographic, meteorological, and biochemical variables in comparison with observation data and demonstrated that the proposed methodology shows a better result than commonly used all-model averaging.
M. Rosario Lorenzo, María Segovia, Jay T. Cullen, and María T. Maldonado
Biogeosciences, 17, 757–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-757-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-757-2020, 2020
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Pritha Tutasi and Ruben Escribano
Biogeosciences, 17, 455–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-455-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-455-2020, 2020
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Vertical migration of zooplankton has rarely been studied under the effect of a variable community structure, which depending on the behavior and size of its groups can strongly alter the magnitude of C being actively taken to depth by migrants. Here, we address this issue in a highly productive upwelling system, where a high amount of zooplankton can daily move below the mixed layer despite presence of an extremely low–oxygen water and so contribute to a significant export of C to depth.
Frances E. Hopkins, Philip D. Nightingale, John A. Stephens, C. Mark Moore, Sophie Richier, Gemma L. Cripps, and Stephen D. Archer
Biogeosciences, 17, 163–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-163-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-163-2020, 2020
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We investigated the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on the production of climate active gas dimethylsulfide (DMS) in polar waters. We found that polar DMS production was unaffected by OA – in contrast to temperate waters, where large increases in DMS occurred. The regional differences in DMS response may reflect natural variability in community adaptation to ambient carbonate chemistry and should be taken into account in predicting the influence of future DMS emissions on Earth's climate.
Nidhi Jha, Nitin Kumar Tripathi, Wirong Chanthorn, Warren Brockelman, Anuttara Nathalang, Raphaël Pélissier, Siriruk Pimmasarn, Pierre Ploton, Nophea Sasaki, Salvatore G. P. Virdis, and Maxime Réjou-Méchain
Biogeosciences, 17, 121–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-121-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-121-2020, 2020
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Carbon stocks and dynamics are both uncertain in tropical forests, especially in Asia. We here quantify the carbon stock and recovery rate of a Thai landscape using airborne lidar and four decades of Landsat data. We show that the landscape has a high carbon stock despite its disturbance history and that secondary forests are accumulating carbon at high rate. Our study shows the potential synergy of remote sensing and field data to characterize the carbon dynamics of tropical forests.
Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Eric Struyf, Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Elke K. Fischer, Ivan Janssens, Patrick Meire, and Jonas Schoelynck
Biogeosciences, 17, 103–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-103-2020, 2020
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Weathering is a major control on atmospheric CO2 at geologic timescales. Enhancement of this process can be used to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Field results are still scarce and with this experiment we try to add some near-natural insights into dissolution processes. Results show CO2 sequestration potentials but also highlight the strong variability of outcomes that can be expected in natural environments. Such experiments are of the utmost importance to identify key processes.
Rachel Dietrich and Madhur Anand
Biogeosciences, 16, 4815–4827, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4815-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4815-2019, 2019
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In shade-tolerant tree species, growth is not strictly related to tree age. In this study we show that novel tree ring standardization models that incorporate tree size in the year of ring formation produce more accurate chronologies than those produced by contemporary, age-based standardization models. These findings are important for accurate and reliable long-term trend reconstruction in tree ring studies in all species but are especially so for shade-tolerant species.
Laurie M. Charrieau, Karl Ljung, Frederik Schenk, Ute Daewel, Emma Kritzberg, and Helena L. Filipsson
Biogeosciences, 16, 3835–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3835-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3835-2019, 2019
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We reconstructed environmental changes in the Öresund during the last 200 years, using foraminifera (microfossils), sediment, and climate data. Five zones were identified, reflecting oxygen, salinity, food content, and pollution levels for each period. The largest changes occurred ~ 1950, towards stronger currents. The foraminifera responded quickly (< 10 years) to the changes. Moreover, they did not rebound when the system returned to the previous pattern, but displayed a new equilibrium state.
Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, and Siem Jan Koopman
Biogeosciences, 16, 3651–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3651-2019, 2019
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Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is the rate at which the ocean and land sinks take up CO2 from the atmosphere decreasing? We analyse these questions by means of a statistical dynamic multivariate model from which we estimate the unobserved trend processes together with the parameters that govern them. We find no statistical evidence of an increasing airborne fraction, but we do find statistical evidence of a decreasing sink rate.
George Roff, Jennifer Joseph, and Peter J. Mumby
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-329, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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In recent decades, extensive mortality of reef-building corals throughout the Caribbean region has led to erosion of reef frameworks and declines in biodiversity. Using field observations, models and high-precision U-th dating, we quantified changes in structural complexity in the coral reef frameworks over the past two decades. Structural complexity was stable at reef-scales, yet bioerosion led to declines in small-scale microhabitat complexity with cascading effects on cryptic fauna.
Alexandra T. Holland, Christopher J. Williamson, Fotis Sgouridis, Andrew J. Tedstone, Jenine McCutcheon, Joseph M. Cook, Ewa Poniecka, Marian L. Yallop, Martyn Tranter, Alexandre M. Anesio, and The Black & Bloom Group
Biogeosciences, 16, 3283–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3283-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3283-2019, 2019
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This paper provides a preliminary data set for dissolved nutrient abundance in the Dark Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This 15-year marked darkening has since been attributed to glacier algae blooms, yet has not been accounted for in current melt rate models. We conclude that the dissolved organic phase dominates surface ice environments and that factors other than macronutrient limitation control the extent and magnitude of the glacier algae blooms.
Thorben Amann and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 16, 2949–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2949-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2949-2019, 2019
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With the recent publication of the IPCC special report on the 1.5 °C target and increased attention on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, we think it is time to advance from the current way of looking at specific strategies to a more holistic CDR perspective, since multiple "side effects" may lead to additional CO2 uptake into different carbon pools. This paper explores potential co-benefits between terrestrial CDR strategies to facilitate a maximum CO2 sequestration effect.
Angélique Hameau, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 16, 1755–1780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1755-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1755-2019, 2019
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The observed decrease of oxygen and warming in the ocean may adversely affect marine ecosystems and their services. We analyse results from an Earth system model for the last millennium and the 21st century. We find changes in temperature and oxygen due to fossil fuel burning and other human activities to exceed natural variations in many ocean regions already today. Natural variability is biased low in earlier studies neglecting forcing from past volcanic eruptions and solar change.
Stefan Kruse, Alexander Gerdes, Nadja J. Kath, Laura S. Epp, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 16, 1211–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019, 2019
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How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current global warming? To answer this, we newly parameterized dispersal processes in the individual-based and spatially explicit model LAVESI-WIND based on parentage analysis. Simulation results show that northernmost open forest stands are migrating at an unexpectedly slow rate into tundra. We conclude that the treeline currently lags behind the strong warming and will remain slow in the upcoming decades.
Rasoul Yousefpour, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 16, 241–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-241-2019, 2019
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Global forest resources are accounted for to establish their potential to sink carbon in woody biomass. Climate prediction models realize the effects of future global forest utilization rates, defined by population demand and its evolution over time. However, forest management approaches consider the supply side to realize a sustainable forest carbon stock and adapt the harvest rates to novel climate conditions. This study simulates such an adaptive sustained
yield approach.
Terhikki Manninen, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Kristin Böttcher, Sari Metsämäki, Kati Anttila, Pentti Pirinen, Antti Leppänen, and Ali Nadir Arslan
Biogeosciences, 16, 223–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-223-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-223-2019, 2019
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The surface albedo time series CLARA-A2 SAL was used to study trends in the timing of the melting season of snow and preceding albedo value in Finland during 1982–2016 to assess climate change. The results were in line with operational snow depth data, JSBACH land ecosystem model, SYKE fractional snow cover and greening-up data. In the north a clear trend to earlier snowmelt onset, increasing melting season length, and decrease in pre-melt albedo (related to increased stem volume) was observed.
Yuan Meng, Zhenbin Guo, Susan C. Fitzer, Abhishek Upadhyay, Vera B. S. Chan, Chaoyi Li, Maggie Cusack, Haimin Yao, Kelvin W. K. Yeung, and Vengatesen Thiyagarajan
Biogeosciences, 15, 6833–6846, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6833-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6833-2018, 2018
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The paper revealed a potential structural deterioration induced by ocean acidification on the shells of an ecologically and economically important oyster, which is critical to forecasting the survival and production of edible oysters in the future ocean. Importantly, this is a multidisciplinary collaboration including aquaculture, crystallography, medical and materials science, which could be applied to other biomineral systems to hierarchically analyse the impact of ocean acidification.
Dominik Thom, Werner Rammer, Rita Garstenauer, and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 15, 5699–5713, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5699-2018, 2018
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Over the past decades temperate forests were a carbon (C) sink to the atmosphere. Yet the drivers of C uptake and how these affect the future carbon cycle remain uncertain. Our simulation and study revealed that the future C sink of central European forest landscapes is strongly driven by historic land use, while climate change reduces forest C uptake. Compared to land-use change, past natural disturbances (wind and bark beetles) have only marginal effects on the future carbon cycle.
Michael M. Loranty, Benjamin W. Abbott, Daan Blok, Thomas A. Douglas, Howard E. Epstein, Bruce C. Forbes, Benjamin M. Jones, Alexander L. Kholodov, Heather Kropp, Avni Malhotra, Steven D. Mamet, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Susan M. Natali, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Gareth K. Phoenix, Adrian V. Rocha, Oliver Sonnentag, Ken D. Tape, and Donald A. Walker
Biogeosciences, 15, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5287-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5287-2018, 2018
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Vegetation and soils strongly influence ground temperature in permafrost ecosystems across the Arctic and sub-Arctic. These effects will cause differences rates of permafrost thaw related to the distribution of tundra and boreal forests. As the distribution of forests and tundra change, the effects of climate change on permafrost will also change. We review the ecosystem processes that will influence permafrost thaw and outline how they will feed back to climate warming.
Aisling Fontanini, Alexandra Steckbauer, Sam Dupont, and Carlos M. Duarte
Biogeosciences, 15, 3717–3729, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3717-2018, 2018
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Invertebrate species of the Gullmar Fjord (Sweden) were exposed to four different treatments (high/low oxygen and low/high CO2) and respiration measured. Respiration responses of species of contrasting habitats and life-history strategies to single and multiple stressors was evaluated. Results show that the responses of the respiration were highly species specific as we observed both synergetic as well as antagonistic responses, and neither phylum nor habitat explained trends in respiration.
Jie Wang, Bayden D. Russell, Meng-Wen Ding, and Yun-Wei Dong
Biogeosciences, 15, 2803–2817, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2803-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2803-2018, 2018
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To understand ecological impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification and temperature rise, a key question is if organisms become more vulnerable under multiple stressors. Here we tested heart rate and gene expression levels of a limpet under varying pCO2 and temperature. Results showed that while many individuals are more vulnerable to heat stress under high CO2 and increased temperature, some animals have the ability to alter their physiology to help them survive under future conditions.
Ting Liu, Liang Wang, Xiaojuan Feng, Jinbo Zhang, Tian Ma, Xin Wang, and Zongguang Liu
Biogeosciences, 15, 1627–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1627-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1627-2018, 2018
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Compared to the respiration process, few studies have examined soil carbon leaching possibly enhanced by extreme precipitation events (EPEs). We show that soil carbon leaching was much higher than CO2 loss through respiration under EPEs in grassland soils through incubation experiments. The soil carbon leaching process should be incorporated into soil carbon models when estimating carbon balance in grassland ecosystems, especially considering the projected increase in EPEs with climate change.
Justine L. Ramage, Anna M. Irrgang, Anne Morgenstern, and Hugues Lantuit
Biogeosciences, 15, 1483–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1483-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1483-2018, 2018
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We describe the evolution of thaw slumps between 1952 and 2011 along the Yukon Coast, Canada, and calculate the contribution of the slumps to the carbon budget in this area. The number of slumps has increased by 73 % over the period. These slumps displaced more than 16 billion m3 of material and mobilized 146 t of carbon. This represents 0.6 % of the annual carbon flux released from shoreline retreat, which shows that the contribution of slumps to the nearshore carbon budget is non-negligible.
Emeline Chaste, Martin P. Girardin, Jed O. Kaplan, Jeanne Portier, Yves Bergeron, and Christelle Hély
Biogeosciences, 15, 1273–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, 2018
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A vegetation model was used to reconstruct fire activity from 1901 to 2012 in relation to changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation in eastern Canada's boreal forest. The model correctly simulated the history of fire activity. The results showed that fire activity is ignition limited but is also greatly affected by both climate and vegetation. This research aims to develop a vegetation model that could be used to predict the future impacts of climate changes on fire activity.
Rong Bi, Stefanie M. H. Ismar, Ulrich Sommer, and Meixun Zhao
Biogeosciences, 15, 1029–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1029-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1029-2018, 2018
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We observed that N : P supply ratios had the strongest effect on C : N : P stoichiometry, while temperature and pCO2 played more influential roles on PIC : POC and polyunsaturated fatty acid proportions in Emiliania huxleyi. Synergistic interactions indicated the enhanced effect of warming under nutrient deficiency and high pCO2. Simultaneous changes of elements and fatty acids should be considered when predicting future roles of E. huxleyi in biogeochemical cycles and ecological functions.
Wenmin Zhang, Martin Brandt, Xiaoye Tong, Qingjiu Tian, and Rasmus Fensholt
Biogeosciences, 15, 319–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-319-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-319-2018, 2018
Lei Jiang, You-Fang Sun, Yu-Yang Zhang, Guo-Wei Zhou, Xiu-Bao Li, Laurence J. McCook, Jian-Sheng Lian, Xin-Ming Lei, Sheng Liu, Lin Cai, Pei-Yuan Qian, and Hui Huang
Biogeosciences, 14, 5741–5752, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5741-2017, 2017
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The negative effects of elevated temperature (31 °C) on larval settlement of P. damicornis was greatly tempered by diurnal temperature fluctuations, whilst diel oscillations in temperature reduced the heat stress on photo-physiology of coral recruits. Although elevated temperature greatly stimulated the growth of recruits, the daytime encounters with the maximum temperature of 33 °C in the fluctuating treatment elicited a notable reduction in calcification.
Siv K. Lauvset, Jerry Tjiputra, and Helene Muri
Biogeosciences, 14, 5675–5691, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5675-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5675-2017, 2017
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Solar radiation management (SRM) is suggested as a method to offset global warming and to buy time to reduce emissions. Here we use an Earth system model to project the impact of SRM on future ocean biogeochemistry. This work underscores the complexity of climate impacts on ocean primary production and highlights the fact that changes are driven by an integrated effect of many environmental drivers, which all change in different ways.
Cara A. Littlefair, Suzanne E. Tank, and Steven V. Kokelj
Biogeosciences, 14, 5487–5505, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5487-2017, 2017
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This study is the first to examine how permafrost slumping affects dissolved organic carbon (DOC) mobilization in landscapes dominated by glacial tills. Unlike in previous studies, we find that slumping is associated with decreased DOC concentrations in downstream systems – an effect that appears to occur via adsorption to fine-grained sediments. This work adds significantly to our understanding of varying effects of permafrost thaw on organic carbon mobilization across diverse Arctic regions.
Yaner Yan, Xuhui Zhou, Lifeng Jiang, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 14, 5441–5454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5441-2017, 2017
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The effects of C turnover time on ecosystem C storage have not been well explored, so we quantified the spatial variation in ecosystem C storage over time from changes in C turnover time and/or NPP. Our results showed that the terrestrial C release caused by the decrease in MTT only accounted for about 13.5 % of that due to the change in NPP uptake. However, the larger uncertainties in the spatial variation of MTT than temporal changes would lead to a greater impact on ecosystem C storage.
Istem Fer, Britta Tietjen, Florian Jeltsch, and Christian Wolff
Biogeosciences, 14, 4355–4374, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017, 2017
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been identified as one of the main drivers for the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall. But we know little about its direct impact on vegetation and how it might change in the future. In this study, we quantified this relationship and predict its future under certain climate change scenarios. Results suggest that we need to consider an increase in future ENSO intensity to cover the full range of potential changes in vegetation responses.
Keith F. Lewin, Andrew M. McMahon, Kim S. Ely, Shawn P. Serbin, and Alistair Rogers
Biogeosciences, 14, 4071–4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4071-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4071-2017, 2017
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Experiments that manipulate the temperature of plants and ecosystems are used to improve understanding of how they will respond to climate change. In logistically challenging locations passive warming using solar energy is the the only viable option for warming experiments. Unfortunately current passive warming approaches can only raise air temperature by about 1.5 °C. We have developed a novel approach that doubles the warming possible using solar energy and requires no power.
Ines Bamberger, Nadine K. Ruehr, Michael Schmitt, Andreas Gast, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 3649–3667, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, 2017
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We studied the effects of summer heatwaves and drought on photosynthesis and isoprene emissions in black locust trees. While photosynthesis decreased, isoprene emission increased sharply during the heatwaves. Comparing isoprene emissions of stressed and unstressed trees at the same temperature, however, demonstrated that stressed trees emitted less isoprene than expected. This reveals that in order to predict isoprene emissions during heat waves, model parameters need to be re-evaluated.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Jie Chen, Guoliang Xiao, Yakov Kuzyakov, G. Darrel Jenerette, Ying Ma, Wei Liu, Zhengfeng Wang, and Weijun Shen
Biogeosciences, 14, 2513–2525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2513-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2513-2017, 2017
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We conducted a field manipulation experiment by redistributing 67 % of dry-season rainfall into the wet season while keeping the annual rainfall unchanged in a subtropical forest. Soil net nitrification and N mineralization rates were decreased by 13–20 % in the dry season and increased by 50 % with an accelerated NO3 leaching in the wet season. Functional microbial gene abundance and microbial biomass were the main factors affecting the N-process responses to the rainfall seasonality changes.
Miguel Mallo, Patrizia Ziveri, P. Graham Mortyn, Ralf Schiebel, and Michael Grelaud
Biogeosciences, 14, 2245–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2245-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2245-2017, 2017
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Single-celled living calcareous planktic foraminifera data across the Mediterranean Sea suggest that stratification of the surface water column, food availability, temperature, and seawater carbonate chemistry are the main factors controlling their distribution and mass. Increasing temperature, salinity, surface ocean stratification, and trophic conditions could be the causes of reduced abundance, diversity and species-specific changes in calcification in planktic foraminifera.
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