Articles | Volume 11, issue 24
Biogeosciences, 11, 7125–7135, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 11, 7125–7135, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
16 Dec 2014
Research article
| 16 Dec 2014
Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate
C. A. Stock et al.
Related authors
Claudine Hauri, Cristina Schultz, Katherine Hedstrom, Seth Danielson, Brita Irving, Scott C. Doney, Raphael Dussin, Enrique N. Curchitser, David F. Hill, and Charles A. Stock
Biogeosciences, 17, 3837–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3837-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3837-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The coastal ecosystem of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) is especially vulnerable to the effects of ocean acidification and climate change. To improve our conceptual understanding of the system, we developed a new regional biogeochemical model setup for the GOA. Model output suggests that bottom water is seasonally high in CO2 between June and January. Such extensive periods of reoccurring high CO2 may be harmful to ocean acidification-sensitive organisms.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Heike K. Lotze, Eric D. Galbraith, William Cheung, Manuel Barange, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Jose A. Fernandes, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Veronika Huber, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Patrick Lehodey, Jason S. Link, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago Silva, Charles A. Stock, Jeroen Steenbeek, Philip J. Underwood, Jan Volkholz, James R. Watson, and Nicola D. Walker
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Giuliana Turi, Michael Alexander, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Antonietta Capotondi, James Scott, Charles Stock, John Dunne, Jasmin John, and Michael Jacox
Ocean Sci., 14, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution global model was used to study the influence of El Niño/La Niña events on the California Current System (CalCS). The mean surface oxygen (O2) response extends well offshore, where the pH response occurs within ~ 100 km of the coast. The surface O2 (pH) is primarily driven by temperature (upwelling) changes. Below 100 m, anomalously low O2 and low pH occurred during La Niña events near the coast, potentially stressing the ecosystem, but there are large variations between events.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Friedrich A. Burger, Jasmin G. John, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 17, 4633–4662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble simulations of an Earth system model reveal that ocean acidity extremes have increased in the past few decades and are projected to increase further in terms of frequency, intensity, duration, and volume extent. The increase is not only caused by the long-term ocean acidification due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, but also due to changes in short-term variability. The increase in ocean acidity extremes may enhance the risk of detrimental impacts on marine organisms.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Claudine Hauri, Cristina Schultz, Katherine Hedstrom, Seth Danielson, Brita Irving, Scott C. Doney, Raphael Dussin, Enrique N. Curchitser, David F. Hill, and Charles A. Stock
Biogeosciences, 17, 3837–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3837-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3837-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The coastal ecosystem of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) is especially vulnerable to the effects of ocean acidification and climate change. To improve our conceptual understanding of the system, we developed a new regional biogeochemical model setup for the GOA. Model output suggests that bottom water is seasonally high in CO2 between June and January. Such extensive periods of reoccurring high CO2 may be harmful to ocean acidification-sensitive organisms.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Katja Fennel, Simone Alin, Leticia Barbero, Wiley Evans, Timothée Bourgeois, Sarah Cooley, John Dunne, Richard A. Feely, Jose Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Xinping Hu, Steven Lohrenz, Frank Muller-Karger, Raymond Najjar, Lisa Robbins, Elizabeth Shadwick, Samantha Siedlecki, Nadja Steiner, Adrienne Sutton, Daniela Turk, Penny Vlahos, and Zhaohui Aleck Wang
Biogeosciences, 16, 1281–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We review and synthesize available information on coastal ocean carbon fluxes around North America (NA). There is overwhelming evidence, compiled and discussed here, that the NA coastal margins act as a sink. Our synthesis shows the great diversity in processes driving carbon fluxes in different coastal regions, highlights remaining gaps in observations and models, and discusses current and anticipated future trends with respect to carbon fluxes and acidification.
Jaime B. Palter, Thomas L. Frölicher, David Paynter, and Jasmin G. John
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 817–828, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may require carbon removal from the atmosphere. We explore how the climate system differs when we achieve the 1.5 °C limit by rapid emissions reductions versus when we overshoot this limit, hitting 2 °C at mid-century before removing CO2 from the atmosphere. We show that sea level, ocean acidification, regional warming, and ocean circulation are very different under the overshoot pathway at 2100, despite hitting the 1.5 °C target for surface warming.
Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Heike K. Lotze, Eric D. Galbraith, William Cheung, Manuel Barange, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Jose A. Fernandes, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Veronika Huber, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Patrick Lehodey, Jason S. Link, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago Silva, Charles A. Stock, Jeroen Steenbeek, Philip J. Underwood, Jan Volkholz, James R. Watson, and Nicola D. Walker
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Giuliana Turi, Michael Alexander, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Antonietta Capotondi, James Scott, Charles Stock, John Dunne, Jasmin John, and Michael Jacox
Ocean Sci., 14, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution global model was used to study the influence of El Niño/La Niña events on the California Current System (CalCS). The mean surface oxygen (O2) response extends well offshore, where the pH response occurs within ~ 100 km of the coast. The surface O2 (pH) is primarily driven by temperature (upwelling) changes. Below 100 m, anomalously low O2 and low pH occurred during La Niña events near the coast, potentially stressing the ecosystem, but there are large variations between events.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Roland Seferian, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, Laurent Bopp, Laure Resplandy, James C. Orr, Olivier Marti, John P. Dunne, James R. Christian, Scott C. Doney, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Paul R. Halloran, Christoph Heinze, Joachim Segschneider, Jerry Tjiputra, Olivier Aumont, and Anastasia Romanou
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for ocean biogeochemistry in CMIP5 models contributed to inter-model differences in modeled fields. We show that a link between spin-up duration and skill-score metrics emerges from both individual IPSL-CM5A-LR's results and an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols constitute a source of inter-model uncertainty which would require more attention in future intercomparison exercises.
S. Sedigh Marvasti, A. Gnanadesikan, A. A. Bidokhti, J. P. Dunne, and S. Ghader
Biogeosciences, 13, 1049–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1049-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines challenges in modeling phytoplankton blooms in Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Blooms in the region show strong modulation both by seasons and in the wintertime by eddies. However getting both of these correct is a challenge in a set of state-of-the-art global Earth System models. It is argued that maintaining a sharp pycnocline may be the key for preventing the wintertime bloom from being too strong and for allowing eddies to modulate upward mixing of nutrients.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
B. F. Jonsson, S. Doney, J. Dunne, and M. L. Bender
Biogeosciences, 12, 681–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-681-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-681-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We compare how two global circulation models simulate biological production over the year with observations. Note that models simulate the range of biological production and biomass well but fail with regard to timing and regional structures. This is probably because the physics in the models are wrong, especially vertical processes such as mixed layer dynamics.
C. D. Nevison, M. Manizza, R. F. Keeling, M. Kahru, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, J. Tiputra, T. Ilyina, and B. G. Mitchell
Biogeosciences, 12, 193–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) at five surface monitoring sites are compared to those inferred from the air-sea O2 fluxes of six ocean biogeochemistry models. The simulated air-sea fluxes are translated into APO seasonal cycles using a matrix method that takes into account atmospheric transport model (ATM) uncertainty among 13 different ATMs. Net primary production (NPP), estimated from satellite ocean color data, is also compared to model output.
M. Gehlen, R. Séférian, D. O. B. Jones, T. Roy, R. Roth, J. Barry, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, C. Heinze, F. Joos, J. C. Orr, L. Resplandy, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates potential impacts of pH reductions on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to latest IPCC scenarios.Multi-model projections of pH changes over the seafloor are analysed with reference to a critical threshold based on palaeo-oceanographic studies, contemporary observations and model results. By 2100 under the most severe IPCC CO2 scenario, pH reductions occur over ~23% of deep-sea canyons and ~8% of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as marine protected areas.
M. Ishii, R. A. Feely, K. B. Rodgers, G.-H. Park, R. Wanninkhof, D. Sasano, H. Sugimoto, C. E. Cosca, S. Nakaoka, M. Telszewski, Y. Nojiri, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Niwa, P. K. Patra, V. Valsala, H. Nakano, I. Lima, S. C. Doney, E. T. Buitenhuis, O. Aumont, J. P. Dunne, A. Lenton, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 11, 709–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-709-2014, 2014
L. Bopp, L. Resplandy, J. C. Orr, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, M. Gehlen, P. Halloran, C. Heinze, T. Ilyina, R. Séférian, J. Tjiputra, and M. Vichi
Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013
C. Beaulieu, S. A. Henson, Jorge L. Sarmiento, J. P. Dunne, S. C. Doney, R. R. Rykaczewski, and L. Bopp
Biogeosciences, 10, 2711–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
J. G. John, A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and J. P. Dunne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12021–12036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
The application of dendrometers to alpine dwarf shrubs – a case study to investigate stem growth responses to environmental conditions
Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
Evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of blue intensity on multiple conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand
Anthropogenic CO2-mediated freshwater acidification limits survival, calcification, metabolism, and behaviour in stress-tolerant freshwater crustaceans
Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes
On the influence of erect shrubs on the irradiance profile in snow
Tolerance of tropical marine microphytobenthos exposed to elevated irradiance and temperature
Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe
Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century
Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2
Effects of elevated CO2 and extreme climatic events on forage quality and in vitro rumen fermentation in permanent grassland
Cushion bog plant community responses to passive warming in southern Patagonia
Blue carbon stocks and exchanges along the California coast
Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming
Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model
Does drought advance the onset of autumn leaf senescence in temperate deciduous forest trees?
Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks in CMIP6 models: contributions from different basins
Sensitivity of 21st-century projected ocean new production changes to idealized biogeochemical model structure
Ocean carbon uptake under aggressive emission mitigation
Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration
Wetter environment and increased grazing reduced the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016
Physiological responses of Skeletonema costatum to the interactions of seawater acidification and the combination of photoperiod and temperature
Technical note: Interpreting pH changes
Timing of drought in the growing season and strong legacy effects determine the annual productivity of temperate grasses in a changing climate
Contrasting responses of woody and herbaceous vegetation to altered rainfall characteristics in the Sahel
Reduced growth with increased quotas of particulate organic and inorganic carbon in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi under future ocean climate change conditions
Ocean-related global change alters lipid biomarker production in common marine phytoplankton
Multi-decadal changes in structural complexity following mass coral mortality on a Caribbean reef
Stable isotopes track the ecological and biogeochemical legacy of mass mangrove forest dieback in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia
Global climate response to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models
Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models
Ecosystem physio-phenology revealed using circular statistics
Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover
Characterizing deepwater oxygen variability and seafloor community responses using a novel autonomous lander
Physical and biogeochemical impacts of RCP8.5 scenario in the Peru upwelling system
Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2
Foraminiferal holobiont thermal tolerance under future warming – roommate problems or successful collaboration?
Impacts of enhanced weathering on biomass production for negative emission technologies and soil hydrology
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers
Is deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline?
Spatio-temporal variations and uncertainty in land surface modelling for high latitudes: univariate response analysis
Microstructure and composition of marine aggregates as co-determinants for vertical particulate organic carbon transfer in the global ocean
Quantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003
Reviews and syntheses: How do abiotic and biotic processes respond to climatic variations in the Nam Co catchment (Tibetan Plateau)?
Simulation of factors affecting Emiliania huxleyi blooms in Arctic and sub-Arctic seas by CMIP5 climate models: model validation and selection
Particulate trace metal dynamics in response to increased CO2 and iron availability in a coastal mesocosm experiment
Zooplankton diel vertical migration and downward C flux into the oxygen minimum zone in the highly productive upwelling region off northern Chile
A meta-analysis of microcosm experiments shows that dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production in polar waters is insensitive to ocean acidification
Forest aboveground biomass stock and resilience in a tropical landscape of Thailand
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Alex R. Quijada-Rodriguez, Pou-Long Kuan, Po-Hsuan Sung, Mao-Ting Hsu, Garett J. P. Allen, Pung Pung Hwang, Yung-Che Tseng, and Dirk Weihrauch
Biogeosciences, 18, 6287–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic CO2 is chronically acidifying aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to determine the impact of future freshwater acidification on the physiology and behaviour of an important aquaculture crustacean, Chinese mitten crabs. We report that elevated freshwater CO2 levels lead to impairment of calcification, locomotor behaviour, and survival and reduced metabolism in this species. Results suggest that present-day calcifying invertebrates could be heavily affected by freshwater acidification.
Junrong Zha and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 18, 6245–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study incorporated moss into an extant biogeochemistry model to simulate the role of moss in carbon dynamics in the Arctic. The interactions between higher plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients are considered in our study. We found that, compared with the previous model without moss, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last century and this century.
Maria Belke-Brea, Florent Domine, Ghislain Picard, Mathieu Barrere, and Laurent Arnaud
Biogeosciences, 18, 5851–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Expanding shrubs in the Arctic change snowpacks into a mix of snow, impurities and buried branches. Snow is a translucent medium into which light penetrates and gets partly absorbed by branches or impurities. Measurements of light attenuation in snow in Northern Quebec, Canada, showed (1) black-carbon-dominated light attenuation in snowpacks without shrubs and (2) buried branches influence radiation attenuation in snow locally, leading to melting and pockets of large crystals close to branches.
Sazlina Salleh and Andrew McMinn
Biogeosciences, 18, 5313–5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The benthic diatom communities in Tanjung Rhu, Malaysia, were regularly exposed to high light and temperature variability during the tidal cycle, resulting in low photosynthetic efficiency. We examined the impact of high temperatures on diatoms' photosynthetic capacities, and temperatures beyond 50 °C caused severe photoinhibition. At the same time, those diatoms exposed to temperatures of 40 °C did not show any sign of photoinhibition.
Cornelius Senf and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 18, 5223–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018. We show that this drought has increased forest disturbances across Europe, especially central and eastern Europe. Disturbance levels observed 2018–2020 were the highest on record for 30 years. Increased forest disturbances were correlated with low moisture and high atmospheric water demand. The unprecedented impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbances demonstrate an urgent need to adapt Europe’s forests to a hotter and drier future.
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Vincent Niderkorn, Annette Morvan-Bertrand, Aline Le Morvan, Angela Augusti, Marie-Laure Decau, and Catherine Picon-Cochard
Biogeosciences, 18, 4841–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change can change vegetation characteristics in grasslands with a potential impact on forage chemical composition and quality, as well as its use by ruminants. Using controlled conditions mimicking a future climatic scenario, we show that forage quality and ruminant digestion are affected in opposite ways by elevated atmospheric CO2 and an extreme event (heat wave, severe drought), indicating that different factors of climate change have to be considered together.
Verónica Pancotto, David Holl, Julio Escobar, María Florencia Castagnani, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 18, 4817–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the response of a wetland plant community to elevated temperature conditions in a cushion bog on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. We measured carbon dioxide fluxes at experimentally warmed plots and at control plots. Warmed plant communities sequestered between 55 % and 85 % less carbon dioxide than untreated control cushions over the main growing season. Our results suggest that even moderate future warming could decrease the carbon sink function of austral cushion bogs.
Melissa A. Ward, Tessa M. Hill, Chelsey Souza, Tessa Filipczyk, Aurora M. Ricart, Sarah Merolla, Lena R. Capece, Brady C O'Donnell, Kristen Elsmore, Walter C. Oechel, and Kathryn M. Beheshti
Biogeosciences, 18, 4717–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Salt marshes and seagrass meadows ("blue carbon" habitats) can sequester and store high levels of organic carbon (OC), helping to mitigate climate change. In California blue carbon sediments, we quantified OC storage and exchange between these habitats. We find that (1) these salt marshes store about twice as much OC as seagrass meadows do and (2), while OC from seagrass meadows is deposited into neighboring salt marshes, little of this material is sequestered as "long-term" carbon.
Damien Couespel, Marina Lévy, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 18, 4321–4349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An alarming consequence of climate change is the oceanic primary production decline projected by Earth system models. These coarse-resolution models parameterize oceanic eddies. Here, idealized simulations of global warming with increasing resolution show that the decline in primary production in the eddy-resolved simulations is half as large as in the eddy-parameterized simulations. This stems from the high sensitivity of the subsurface nutrient transport to model resolution.
Wu Ma, Lu Zhai, Alexandria Pivovaroff, Jacquelyn Shuman, Polly Buotte, Junyan Ding, Bradley Christoffersen, Ryan Knox, Max Moritz, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles D. Koven, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 18, 4005–4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in live fuel moisture and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
Bertold Mariën, Inge Dox, Hans J. De Boeck, Patrick Willems, Sebastien Leys, Dimitri Papadimitriou, and Matteo Campioli
Biogeosciences, 18, 3309–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The drivers of the onset of autumn leaf senescence for several deciduous tree species are still unclear. Therefore, we addressed (i) if drought impacts the timing of autumn leaf senescence and (ii) if the relationship between drought and autumn leaf senescence depends on the tree species. Our study suggests that the timing of autumn leaf senescence is conservative across years and species and even independent of drought stress.
Anna Katavouta and Richard G. Williams
Biogeosciences, 18, 3189–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Diagnostics of the latest-generation Earth system models reveal the ocean will continue to absorb a large fraction of the anthropogenic carbon released to the atmosphere in the next century, with the Atlantic Ocean storing a large amount of this carbon relative to its size. The ability of the ocean to absorb carbon will reduce in the future as the ocean warms and acidifies. This reduction is larger in the Atlantic Ocean due to a weakening of the meridional overturning with changes in climate.
Genevieve Jay Brett, Daniel B. Whitt, Matthew C. Long, Frank Bryan, Kate Feloy, and Kelvin J. Richards
Biogeosciences, 18, 3123–3145, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3123-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3123-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify one form of uncertainty in modeled 21st-century changes in phytoplankton growth. The supply of nutrients from deep to surface waters decreases in the warmer future ocean, but the effect on phytoplankton growth also depends on changes in available light, how much light and nutrient the plankton need, and how fast they can grow. These phytoplankton properties can be summarized as a biological timescale: when it is short, future growth decreases twice as much as when it is long.
Sean M. Ridge and Galen A. McKinley
Biogeosciences, 18, 2711–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Approximately 40 % of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have been absorbed by the ocean. The goal of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement is to reduce humanity's emissions so as to limit global warming to no more than 2 °C, and ideally less than 1.5 °C. If we achieve this level of mitigation, the ocean's uptake of carbon will be strongly reduced. Excess carbon trapped in the near-surface ocean will begin to mix back to the surface and will limit additional uptake.
Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, and Simon L. Lewis
Biogeosciences, 18, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.
Wei Min Hao, Matthew C. Reeves, L. Scott Baggett, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Bryce L. Nordgren, Alexander Petkov, Rachel E. Corley, Florent Mouillot, Shawn P. Urbanski, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 18, 2559–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016. The annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period under analysis. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan dominated the fire activity, comprising 47 % of the area burned but accounting for 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and the increase in grazing livestock in Kazakhstan are the major factors contributing to the decline in the area burned.
Hangxiao Li, Tianpeng Xu, Jing Ma, Futian Li, and Juntian Xu
Biogeosciences, 18, 1439–1449, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1439-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Few studies have investigated effects of ocean acidification and seasonal changes in temperature and day length on marine diatoms. We cultured a marine diatom under two CO2 levels and three combinations of temperature and day length, simulating different seasons, to investigate combined effects of these factors. Acidification had contrasting effects under different combinations, indicating that the future ocean may show different effects on diatoms in different clusters of factors.
Andrea J. Fassbender, James C. Orr, and Andrew G. Dickson
Biogeosciences, 18, 1407–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A decline in upper-ocean pH with time is typically ascribed to ocean acidification. A more quantitative interpretation is often confused by failing to recognize the implications of pH being a logarithmic transform of hydrogen ion concentration rather than an absolute measure. This can lead to an unwitting misinterpretation of pH data. We provide three real-world examples illustrating this and recommend the reporting of both hydrogen ion concentration and pH in studies of ocean chemical change.
Claudia Hahn, Andreas Lüscher, Sara Ernst-Hasler, Matthias Suter, and Ansgar Kahmen
Biogeosciences, 18, 585–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-585-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-585-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
While existing studies focus on the immediate effects of drought events on grassland productivity, long-term effects are mostly neglected. But, to conclude universal outcomes, studies must consider comprehensive ecosystem mechanisms. In our study, we found that the resistance of growth rates to drought in grasses varies across seasons, and positive legacy effects of drought indicate a high resilience. The high resilience compensates for immediate drought effects on grasses to a large extent.
Wim Verbruggen, Guy Schurgers, Stéphanie Horion, Jonas Ardö, Paulo N. Bernardino, Bernard Cappelaere, Jérôme Demarty, Rasmus Fensholt, Laurent Kergoat, Thomas Sibret, Torbern Tagesson, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 18, 77–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-77-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-77-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A large part of Earth's land surface is covered by dryland ecosystems, which are subject to climate extremes that are projected to increase under future climate scenarios. By using a mathematical vegetation model, we studied the impact of single years of extreme rainfall on the vegetation in the Sahel. We found a contrasting response of grasses and trees to these extremes, strongly dependent on the way precipitation is spread over the rainy season, as well as a long-term impact on CO2 uptake.
Yong Zhang, Sinéad Collins, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 17, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6357-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that ocean acidification, warming, increased light exposure and reduced nutrient availability significantly reduce the growth rate but increase particulate organic and inorganic carbon in cells in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, indicating biogeochemical consequences of future ocean changes on the calcifying microalga. Concurrent changes in nutrient concentrations and pCO2 levels predominantly affected E. huxleyi growth, photosynthetic carbon fixation and calcification.
Rong Bi, Stefanie M. H. Ismar-Rebitz, Ulrich Sommer, Hailong Zhang, and Meixun Zhao
Biogeosciences, 17, 6287–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6287-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lipids provide crucial insight into the trajectory of ecological functioning in changing environments. We experimentally explore responses of lipid biomarker production in phytoplankton to projected changes in temperature, nutrients and pCO2. Differential responses of lipid biomarkers indicate rearrangements of cellular carbon pools under future ocean scenarios. Such variations in lipid biomarker production would have important impacts on marine ecological functions and biogeochemical cycles.
George Roff, Jennifer Joseph, and Peter J. Mumby
Biogeosciences, 17, 5909–5918, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5909-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5909-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, extensive mortality of reef-building corals throughout the Caribbean region has led to the erosion of reef frameworks and declines in biodiversity. Using field observations, models, and high-precision U–Th dating, we quantified changes in the structural complexity of coral reef frameworks over the past 2 decades. Structural complexity was stable at reef scales, yet bioerosion led to declines in small-scale microhabitat complexity with cascading effects on cryptic fauna.
Yota Harada, Rod M. Connolly, Brian Fry, Damien T. Maher, James Z. Sippo, Luke C. Jeffrey, Adam J. Bourke, and Shing Yip Lee
Biogeosciences, 17, 5599–5613, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 2015–2016, an extensive area of mangroves along ~ 1000 km of coastline in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia, experienced dieback as a result of a climatic extreme event that included drought conditions and low sea levels. Multiannual field campaigns conducted from 2016 to 2018 show substantial recovery of the mangrove vegetation. However, stable isotopes suggest long-lasting changes in carbon, nitrogen and sulfur cycling following the dieback.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Daniel E. Pabon-Moreno, Talie Musavi, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, Christine Römermann, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 3991–4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystem CO2 uptake changes in time depending on climate conditions. In this study, we analyze how different climate variables affect the timing when CO2 uptake is at a maximum (DOYGPPmax). We found that the joint effects of radiation, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit are the most relevant controlling factors of DOYGPPmax and that if they increase, DOYGPPmax will happen earlier. These results help us to better understand how CO2 uptake could be affected by climate change.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Natalya D. Gallo, Kevin Hardy, Nicholas C. Wegner, Ashley Nicoll, Haleigh Yang, and Lisa A. Levin
Biogeosciences, 17, 3943–3960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3943-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3943-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental exposure histories can affect organismal sensitivity to climate change and ocean deoxygenation. The natural variability of environmental conditions for nearshore deep-sea habitats is poorly known due to technological challenges. We develop and test a novel, autonomous, hand-deployable lander outfitted with environmental sensors and a camera system and use it to characterize high-frequency oxygen, temperature, and pH variability at 100–400 m as well as seafloor community responses.
Vincent Echevin, Manon Gévaudan, Dante Espinoza-Morriberón, Jorge Tam, Olivier Aumont, Dimitri Gutierrez, and François Colas
Biogeosciences, 17, 3317–3341, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3317-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3317-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The coasts of Peru encompass the richest fisheries in the entire ocean. It is therefore very important for this country to understand how the nearshore marine ecosystem may evolve under climate change. Fine-scale numerical models are very useful because they can represent precisely the evolution of key parameters such as temperature, water oxygenation, and plankton biomass. Here we study the evolution of the Peruvian marine ecosystem in the 21st century under the worst-case climate scenario.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Doron Pinko, Sigal Abramovich, and Danna Titelboim
Biogeosciences, 17, 2341–2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Future warming threatens many marine organisms; among these are large benthic foraminifera. These symbiont-bearing protists are major carbonate producers and ecosystem engineers. To assess the relative contribution of host and symbiont algae to the holobiont thermal tolerance, we evaluated the calcification rate and photosynthetic activity under future warming scenarios.
Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Kristine Karstens, Alexander Popp, Lena R. Boysen, Pete Smith, and Daniel Goll
Biogeosciences, 17, 2107–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Biomass-based terrestrial negative emission technologies (tNETS) have high potential to sequester CO2. Many CO2 uptake estimates do not include the effect of nutrient deficiencies in soils on biomass production. We show that nutrients can be partly resupplied by enhanced weathering (EW) rock powder application, increasing the effectiveness of tNETs. Depending on the deployed amounts of rock powder, EW could also improve soil hydrology, adding a new dimension to the coupling of tNETs with EW.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Angélique Hameau, Thomas L. Frölicher, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 1877–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean deoxygenation and warming are observed and projected to intensify under continued greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas temperature is considered the main climate change indicator, we show that in certain regions, thermocline doxygenation may be detectable before warming.
Didier G. Leibovici, Shaun Quegan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Maria Val Martin, Mathieu Guimberteau, Arsène Druel, Dan Zhu, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 17, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the impact of environmental changes due to climate change, e.g. geographical spread of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) and agriculture crop modelling, may require land surface modelling (LSM) to predict future land surface conditions. There are multiple LSMs to choose from. The paper proposes a multivariate spatio-temporal data science method to understand the inherent uncertainties in four LSMs and the variations between them in Nordic areas for the net primary production.
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 17, 1765–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Marine micro-algae bind carbon dioxide, CO2. During their decay, snowflake-like aggregates form that sink, remineralize and transport organically bound CO2 to depth; this is referred to as the biological carbon pump. In our model study, we elucidate how variable aggregate composition impacts the global pattern of vertical carbon fluxes. Our mechanistic model approach advances the representation of the global biological carbon pump and promotes a more realistic projection under climate change.
Allan Buras, Anja Rammig, and Christian S. Zang
Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares the climatic conditions and ecosystem response of the extreme European drought of 2018 with the previous extreme drought of 2003. Using gridded climate data and satellite-based remote sensing information, our analyses qualify 2018 as the new European record drought with wide-ranging negative impacts on European ecosystems. Given the observation of forest-legacy effects in 2019 we call for Europe-wide forest monitoring to assess forest vulnerability to climate change.
Sten Anslan, Mina Azizi Rad, Johannes Buckel, Paula Echeverria Galindo, Jinlei Kai, Wengang Kang, Laura Keys, Philipp Maurischat, Felix Nieberding, Eike Reinosch, Handuo Tang, Tuong Vi Tran, Yuyang Wang, and Antje Schwalb
Biogeosciences, 17, 1261–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1261-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the high elevation, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is affected more strongly than the global average by climate warming. As a result of increasing air temperature, several environmental processes have accelerated, such as melting glaciers, thawing permafrost and grassland degradation. We review several modern and paleoenvironmental changes forced by climate warming in the lake system of Nam Co to shape our understanding of global warming effects on current and future geobiodiversity.
Natalia Gnatiuk, Iuliia Radchenko, Richard Davy, Evgeny Morozov, and Leonid Bobylev
Biogeosciences, 17, 1199–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1199-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1199-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the ability of 34 climate models to reproduce main factors affecting the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi blooms in six Arctic and sub-Arctic seas. Furthermore, we proposed a procedure of ranking and selecting these models based on the model’s skill in reproducing 10 important oceanographic, meteorological, and biochemical variables in comparison with observation data and demonstrated that the proposed methodology shows a better result than commonly used all-model averaging.
M. Rosario Lorenzo, María Segovia, Jay T. Cullen, and María T. Maldonado
Biogeosciences, 17, 757–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-757-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-757-2020, 2020
Short summary
Pritha Tutasi and Ruben Escribano
Biogeosciences, 17, 455–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-455-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-455-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical migration of zooplankton has rarely been studied under the effect of a variable community structure, which depending on the behavior and size of its groups can strongly alter the magnitude of C being actively taken to depth by migrants. Here, we address this issue in a highly productive upwelling system, where a high amount of zooplankton can daily move below the mixed layer despite presence of an extremely low–oxygen water and so contribute to a significant export of C to depth.
Frances E. Hopkins, Philip D. Nightingale, John A. Stephens, C. Mark Moore, Sophie Richier, Gemma L. Cripps, and Stephen D. Archer
Biogeosciences, 17, 163–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-163-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-163-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on the production of climate active gas dimethylsulfide (DMS) in polar waters. We found that polar DMS production was unaffected by OA – in contrast to temperate waters, where large increases in DMS occurred. The regional differences in DMS response may reflect natural variability in community adaptation to ambient carbonate chemistry and should be taken into account in predicting the influence of future DMS emissions on Earth's climate.
Nidhi Jha, Nitin Kumar Tripathi, Wirong Chanthorn, Warren Brockelman, Anuttara Nathalang, Raphaël Pélissier, Siriruk Pimmasarn, Pierre Ploton, Nophea Sasaki, Salvatore G. P. Virdis, and Maxime Réjou-Méchain
Biogeosciences, 17, 121–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-121-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-121-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon stocks and dynamics are both uncertain in tropical forests, especially in Asia. We here quantify the carbon stock and recovery rate of a Thai landscape using airborne lidar and four decades of Landsat data. We show that the landscape has a high carbon stock despite its disturbance history and that secondary forests are accumulating carbon at high rate. Our study shows the potential synergy of remote sensing and field data to characterize the carbon dynamics of tropical forests.
Cited articles
Anderson, J. L., Balaji, V., Broccoli, A. J., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., Donner, L. J., Dunne, K. A., Freidenreich, S. M., Garner, S. T., Gudgel, R. G., Gordon, C. T., Held, I. M., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Kushner, P. J., Langenhost, A. R., Lau, N. C., Liang, Z., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Nath, M. J., Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Soden, B. J., Stern, W. F., Thompson, L. A., Wilson, R. J., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B. L., and Dev, G. G. A. M.: The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations, J. Climate, 17, 4641–4673, 2004.
Armstrong, R. A., Lee, C., Hedges, J. I., Honjo, S., and Wakeham, S. G.: A new, mechanistic model for organic carbon fluxes in the ocean based on the quantitative association of POC with ballast minerals, Deep-Sea Res.-Pt. II, 49, 219–236, 2002.
Aumont, O., Maier-Reimer, E., Blain, S., and Monfray, P.: An ecosystem model of the global ocean including Fe, Si, P co-limitation, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17, 1060, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001745, 2003.
Baines, S. B. and Pace, M. L.: The production of dissolved organic matter by phytoplankton and its importance to bacteria: Patterns across marine and freshwater systems, Limnol. Oceanogr., 36, 1078–1090, 1991.
Barange, M., Merino, G., Blanchard, J. L., Scholtens, J., Harle, J., Allison, E. H., Allen, J. I., Holt, J., and Jennings, S.: Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries, Nature Climate Change, 4, 211–216, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate2119, 2014.
Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J. L., Le Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., and Orr, J. C.: Potential impact of climate change on marine export production, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 81–99, 2001.
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013.
Burd, A. B. and Jackson, G. A.: Particle aggregation, Annual Review of Marine Science, 1, 65–90, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163904, 2009.
Calbet, A. and Landry, M. R.: Phytoplankton growth, microzooplankton grazing, and carbon cycling in marine systems, Limnol. Oceanogr., 49, 51–57, 2004.
Carlotti, F., Giske, J., and Werner, F. E.: Modeling zooplankton dynamics, in: Zooplankton methodology manual, edited by: Harris, R. P., Wiebe, P. H., Lenz, J., Skjoldal, H. R., and Huntley, M. E., Elsevier, New York, 571–667, 2000.
Chai, F., Dugdale, R. C., Peng, T. H., Wilkerson, F. P., and Barber, R. T.: One-dimensional ecosystem model of the equatorial pacific upwelling system. Part I: Model development and silicon and nitrogen cycle, Deep-Sea Res.-Pt. II, 49, 2713–2745, 2002.
Chust, G., Allen, J. I., Bopp, L., Schrum, C., Holt, J., Tsiaras, K., Zavatarelli, M., Chifflet, M., Cannaby, H., Dadou, I., Daewel, U., Wakelin, S. L., Machu, E., Pushpadas, D., Butenschon, M., Artioli, Y., Petihakis, G., Smith, C., Garcon, V., Goubanova, K., Le Vu, B., Fach, B. A., Salihoglu, B., Clementi, E., and Irigoien, X.: Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 2124–2139, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12562, 2014.
Dahms, H. U.: Dormancy in the copepoda – an overview, Hydrobiologia, 306, 199–211, https://doi.org/10.1007/Bf00017691, 1995.
del Giorgio, P. A. and Cole, J. J.: Bacterial energetics and growth efficiency, in: Microbial ecology of the oceans, edited by: Kirchman, D. L., John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 289–325, 2000.
Delworth, T. L., Broccoli, A. J., Rosati, A., Stouffer, R. J., Balaji, V., Beesley, J. A., Cooke, W. F., Dixon, K. W., Dunne, J., Dunne, K. A., Durachta, J. W., Findell, K. L., Ginoux, P., Gnanadesikan, A., Gordon, C. T., Griffies, S. M., Gudgel, R., Harrison, M. J., Held, I. M., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Kushner, P. J., Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H., Lin, S., Lu, J., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Ramaswamy, V., Russell, J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Spelman, M. J., Stern, W. F., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R.: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models, Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 19, 643–674, 2006.
Doney, S. C.: Oceanography – plankton in a warmer world, Nature, 444, 695–696, 2006.
Doney, S. C., Glover, D. M., and Najjar, R. J.: A new coupled, one-dimensional biological-physical model for the upper ocean: Applications to the JGOFS bermuda atlantic time-series study (BATS) site, Deep-Sea Res.-Pt. II, 43, 591–624, 1996.
Dunne, J. P., Armstrong, R. A., Gnanadesikan, A., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Empirical and mechanistic models for the particle export ratio, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, Gb4026, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gb002390, 2005.
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Adcroft, A. J., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Cooke, W., Dunne, K. A., Harrison, M. J., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Phillipps, P. J., Sentman, L. T., Samuels, B. L., Spelman, M. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models, Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 25, 6646–6665, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00560.1, 2012.
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Sentman, L. T., Adcroft, A. J., Cooke, W., Dunne, K. A., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M. J., Levy, H., Wittenberg, A. T., Phillips, P. J., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models, Part II: Carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 26, 2247–2267, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00150.1, 2013.
Edwards, K. F., Thomas, M. K., Klausmeier, C. A., and Litchman, E.: Allometric scaling and taxonomic variation in nutrient utilization traits and maximum growth rate of phytoplankton, Limnol. Oceanogr., 57, 554–566, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2012.57.2.0554, 2012.
Eppley, R. W.: Temperature and phytoplankton growth in the sea, Fisheries Bulletin, 70, 1063–1085, 1972.
Eppley, R. W., Rogers, J. N., and McCarthy, J. J.: Half-saturation constants for uptake of nitrate and ammonium by marine phytoplankton, Limnol. Oceanogr., 14, 912–920, 1969.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of climate models, in: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis, Contributions of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 741–866, 2013.
Flynn, K. J.: Incorporating plankton respiration in models of aquatic ecosystem function, in: Respiration in aquatic ecosystems, edited by: del Giorgio, P. A. and Williams, P. J. B., Oxford University Press, Oxford, 248–266, 2005.
Friedland, K. D., Stock, C., Drinkwater, K. F., Link, J. S., Leaf, R. T., Shank, B. V., Rose, J. M., Pilskaln, C. H., and Fogarty, M. J.: Pathways between primary production and fisheries yields of large marine ecosystems, Plos One, 7, e28945, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0028945, 2012.
Fuchs, H. L. and Franks, P. J. S.: Plankton community properties determined by nutrients and size-selective feeding, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 413, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08716, 2010.
Fuhrman, J.: Impact of viruses on bacterial processes, in: Microbial ecology of the oceans, 1st ed., edited by: Kirchman, D. L., Wiley series in ecology and microbiology, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 327–350, 2000.
Geider, R. J.: Respiration: Taxation without representation, in: Primary productivity and biogeochemical cycles in the sea, edited by: Falkowski, P. G. and Woodhead, A. D., Plenum Press, New York, 333–360, 1992.
Geider, R., MacIntyre, H. L., and Kana, T. M.: Dynamic model of phytoplankton growth and acclimation: Responses of the balanced growth rate and chlorophyll a: carbon ratio to light, nutrient limitation and temperature, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 148, 187–200, 1997.
Griffies, S. M.: Elements of MOM4p1, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, 377, 444 pp., 2009.
Griffies, S. M., Gnanadesikan, A., Dixon, K. W., Dunne, J. P., Gerdes, R., Harrison, M. J., Rosati, A., Russell, J. L., Samuels, B. L., Spelman, M. J., Winton, M., and Zhang, R.: Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations, Ocean Science, 1, 45–79, 2005.
Guilyardi, E., Wittenberg, A., Fedorov, A., Collins, M., Wang, C. Z., Capotondi, A., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Stockdale, T.: Understanding El Nino in ocean-atmosphere general circulation models progress and challenges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 325–340, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008bams2387.1, 2009.
Hansen, B. W., Bjornsen, P. K., and Hansen, P. J.: The size ratio between planktonic predators and their prey, Limnol. Oceanogr., 39, 395–402, 1994.
Hansen, P. J., Bjornsen, P. K., and Hansen, B. W.: Zooplankton grazing and growth: Scaling within the 2-2000-μm body size range, Limnol. Oceanogr., 42, 687–704, 1997.
Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Braconnot, P., Gillett, N. P., Luo, Y., Marengo Orsini, J. A., Nicholls, N., Penner, J. E., and Stott, P. A.: Understanding and attributing climate change, in: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK and New York, NY, USA, 663–745, 2007.
Jackson, G. A.: A model of the formation of marine algal flocs by physical coagulation processes, Deep-Sea Res.-Pt. I, 37, 1197–1211, 1990.
Johnson, C. L., Leising, A. W., Runge, J. A., Head, E. J. H., Pepin, P., Plourde, S., and Durbin, E. G.: Characteristics of calanus finmarchicus dormancy patterns in the northwest atlantic, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 65, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsm171, 2008.
Jumars, P. A., Penry, D. L., Baross, J. A., Perry, M. J., and Frost, B. W.: Closing the microbial loop: Dissolved carbon pathway to heterotrophic bacteria from incomplete ingestion, digestion, and absorption in animals, Deep-Sea Res., 36, 483–495, 1989.
Kearney, K. A., Stock, C., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Amplification and attenuation of increased primary production in a marine food web, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 491, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.3354/Meps10484, 2013.
Kishi, M. J., Kashiwai, M., Ware, D. M., Megrey, B. A., Eslinger, D. L., Werner, F. E., Noguchi-Aita, M., Azumaya, T., Fuji, M., Hashimoto, S., Huang, D., Iizumi, H., Ishida, Y., Kang, S., Kantakov, G. A., Kim, H.-c., Komatsu, K., Navrotsky, V. V., Smith, S. L., Tadokoro, K., Tsuda, A., Yamamura, O., Yamanaka, Y., Yakouchi, K., Yoshi, N., Zhang, J., Zuenko, Y. I., and Zvalinsky, V. I.: Nemuro-a lower trophic level model for the north pacific marine ecosystem, Ecol. Model., 202, 12–25, 2007.
Klaas, C. and Archer, D. E.: Association of sinking organic matter with various types of mineral ballast in the deep sea: Implications for the rain ratio, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 1116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GB001765, 2002.
Landry, M. R., Al-Mutairi, H., Selph, K. E., Christensen, S., and Nunnery, S.: Seasonal patterns of mesozooplankton abundance and biomass at station aloha, Deep-Sea Res.-Pt. II, 48, 2037–2061, 2001.
Lin, S. J.: A "vertically lagrangian" finite-volume dynamical core for global models, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2293–2307, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<2293:Avlfdc>2.0.Co;2, 2004.
Mauchline, J.: The biology of calanoid copepods, Advances in marine biology, Academic Press, San Diego, 710 pp., 1998.
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. P. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global climate projections, in: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA., 589–662, 2007.
Merino, G., Barange, M., Blanchard, J. L., Harle, J., Holmes, R., Allen, I., Allison, E. H., Badjeck, M. C., Dulvy, N. K., Holt, J., Jennings, S., Mullon, C., and Rodwell, L. D.: Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?, Global Environ. Chang., 22, 795–806, 2012.
Munk, W. H. and Riley, G. A.: Absorption of nutrients by aquatic plants, J. Mar. Res., 11, 215–240, 1952.
Nagata, T.: Production mechanisms of dissolved organic matter, in: Microbial ecology of the oceans, edited by: Kirchman, D. L., John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 121–152, 2000.
O'Brien, T. D.: Copepod: A global plankton database, Technical Memorandum, 19, 136 pp., 2005.
Pauly, D., Christensen, V., and Walters, C.: Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace as tools for evaluating ecosystem impact of fisheris, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 57, 697–706, 2000.
Record, N. R., Pershing, A. J., and Maps, F.: Emergent copepod communities in an adaptive trait-structured model, Ecol. Model., 260, 11–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.03.018, 2013.
Reichler, T. and Kim, J.: How well do coupled models simulate today's climate?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89, 303–311, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-303, 2008.
Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C. H., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., and Rafaj, P.: RCP 8.5 – a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Clim. Change, 109, 33–57, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y, 2011.
Roman, M. R., Adolf, H. A., Landry, M. R., Madin, L. P., Steinberg, D. K., and Zhang, X.: Estimates of oceanic mesozooplankton production: A comparison using the Bermuda and Hawaii time-series data, Deep-Sea Res.-Pt. II, 49, 175–192, 2002.
Rose, K. A., Allen, J. I., Artioli, Y., Barange, M., Blackford, J., Carlotti, F., Cropp, R., Daewel, U., Edwards, K., Flynn, K., Hill, S., Hille Ris Lambers, R., Huse, G., Mackinson, S., Megrey, B. A., Moll, A., Rivkin, R., Salihoglu, B., Schrum, C., Shannon, L., Shin, Y., Smith, S. L., Smith, C., Solidoro, C., St John, M., and Zhou, M.: End-to-end models for the analysis of marine ecosystems: Challenges, issues, and next steps, Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management and Ecosystem Science, 2, 115–130, 2010.
Ruggio, R., Vichi, M., Paparella, F., and Masina, S.: Climatic trends of the equatorial undercurrent: A backup mechanism for sustaining the equatorial pacific production, J. Marine Syst., 121, 11–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.04.001, 2013.
Rykaczewski, R. R. and Dunne, J. P.: Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045019, 2010.
Ryther, J. H.: Photosynthesis and fish production in the sea, Science, 166, 72–76, 1969.
Sieburth, J. M., Smetacek, V., and Lenz, J.: Pelagic ecosystem structure: Heterotrophic compartments of the plankton and their relationship to plankton size fractions, Limnol. Oceanogr., 23, 1256–1263, 1978.
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S. C., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Schneider, B., and Segschneider, J.: Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis, Biogeosciences, 7, 979–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-979-2010, 2010.
Stock, C. A. and Dunne, J. P.: Controls on the ratio of mesozooplankton production to primary production in marine ecosystems, Deep-Sea Res.-Pt. I, 57, 95–112, 2010.
Stock, C. A., Powell, T. M., and Levin, S. A.: Bottom-up and top-down forcing in a simple size-structured plankton dynamics model, J. Marine Syst., 74, 134–152, 2008.
Stock, C. A., Alexander, M. A., Bond, N. A., Brander, K. M., Cheung, W. W. L., Curchitser, E. N., Delworth, T. L., Dunne, J. P., Griffies, S. M., Haltuch, M. A., Hare, J. A., Hollowed, A. B., Lehodey, P., Levin, S. A., Link, J. S., Rose, K. A., Rykaczewski, R. R., Sarmiento, J. L., Stouffer, R. J., Schwing, F. B., Vecchi, G. A., and Werner, F. E.: On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources, Prog. Oceanogr., 88, 1–27, 2011.
Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., and John, J. G.: Global-scale carbon and energy flows through the marine planktonic food web: An analysis with a coupled physical-biological model, Prog. Oceanogr., 120, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.07.001, 2014.
Straile, D.: Gross growth efficiencies of protozoan and metazoan zooplankton and their dependence on food concentration, predator-prey weight ratio, and taxonomic group, Limnol. Oceanogr., 42, 1375–1385, 1997.
Sumaila, U. R., Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Pauly, D., and Herrick, S.: Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries, Nature Climate Change, 1, 449–456, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate1301, 2011.
Suttle, C. A.: The significance of viruses to mortality in aquatic microbial communities, Microb. Ecol., 28, 237–243, 1994.
Winton, M., Adcroft, A., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W., Horowitz, L. W., and Stouffer, R. J.: Influence of ocean and atmosphere components on simulated climate sensitivities, J. Climate, 26, 231–245, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00121.1, 2013.
Short summary
Climate change projections suggest large regional ocean productivity shifts for mesozooplankton, an important food resource for fish, which are amplified relative to changes in phytoplankton production. Amplification is attributed to changes in planktonic food web dynamics under global warming. Results have implications for regional economies and food security. Improved understanding of the response of plankton food webs to climate change is essential to refine amplification estimates.
Climate change projections suggest large regional ocean productivity shifts for mesozooplankton,...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint