Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Feb 2017
Research article |
| 02 Feb 2017
Environmental conditions for alternative tree-cover states in high latitudes
Beniamino Abis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany
The Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Victor Brovkin
The Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Marius Moser, Lara Kaiser, Victor Brovkin, and Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3159, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic warming might lead to increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. Process-based prediction of their ratio is key to projecting the future carbon cycle. However, land surface models often assume a constant ratio. To overcome this limitation, we identify three core processes for representing methanogenesis accurately in land surface models: fermentation, acetoclastic methanogenesis, and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Constanze Reinken, Victor Brovkin, Philipp de Vrese, Ingmar Nitze, Helena Bergstedt, and Guido Grosse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1817, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Thermokarst lakes are dynamic features of ice-rich permafrost landscapes, altering energy, water and carbon cycles, but have so far mostly been modeled on site-level scale. A deterministic modelling approach would be challenging on larger scales due to the lack of extensive high-resolution data of sub-surface conditions. We therefore develop a conceptual stochastic model of thermokarst lake dynamics that treats the involved processes as probabilistic.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Wolfgang A. Müller, Stephan Lorenz, Trang V. Pham, Andrea Schneidereit, Renate Brokopf, Victor Brovkin, Nils Brüggemann, Fatemeh Chegini, Dietmar Dommenget, Kristina Fröhlich, Barbara Früh, Veronika Gayler, Helmuth Haak, Stefan Hagemann, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann Jungclaus, Martin Köhler, Peter Korn, Luis Kornblüh, Clarissa Kroll, Julian Krüger, Karel Castro-Morales, Ulrike Niemeier, Holger Pohlmann, Iuliia Polkova, Roland Potthast, Thomas Riddick, Manuel Schlund, Tobias Stacke, Roland Wirth, Dakuan Yu, and Jochem Marotzke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2473, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
ICON XPP is a newly developed Earth System model configuration based on the ICON modeling framework. It merges accomplishments from the recent operational numerical weather prediction model with well-established climate components for the ocean, land and ocean-biogeochemistry. ICON XPP reaches typical targets of a coupled climate simulation, and is able to run long integrations and large-ensemble experiments, making it suitable for climate predictions and projections, and for climate research.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations (CO2 concentration- and emission-driven experiments). We successfully identified problems with regard to the global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues with regard to land use change CO2 emissions that should be solved in the latest generation of models.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Elodie Bougeot, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3738, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are under threat due to warming and ocean acidification. It is difficult to project future coral reef production due to uncertainties in climate models, socio-economic scenarios and coral adaptation to warming. Here we have included a coral reef module within a climate model for the first time to evaluate the range of possible futures. We show that coral reef production decreases in most future scenarios, but in some cases coral reef carbonate production can persist.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Thomas Kleinen, Sergey Gromov, Benedikt Steil, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 19, 1081–1099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled atmospheric methane continuously from the last glacial maximum to the present using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Our model results compare well with reconstructions from ice cores and improve our understanding of a very intriguing period of Earth system history, the deglaciation, when atmospheric methane changed quickly and strongly. Deglacial methane changes are driven by emissions from tropical wetlands, with wetlands in high northern latitudes being secondary.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1897–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greening during late Quaternary African humid periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor, having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest that GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Matteo Puglini, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Regnier, and Sandra Arndt
Biogeosciences, 17, 3247–3275, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A reaction-transport model to assess the potential non-turbulent methane flux from the East Siberian Arctic sediments to water columns is applied here. We show that anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is an efficient filter except for high values of sedimentation rate and advective flow, which enable considerable non-turbulent steady-state methane fluxes. Significant transient methane fluxes can also occur during the building-up phase of the AOM-performing biomass microbial community.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Thomas Kleinen, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 16, 575–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial periods with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild animals and geological sources. Changes are dominated by changes in tropical wetland emissions, high-latitude wetlands play a secondary role, and all other natural sources are of minor importance. We explain the changes in ice core methane by methane emissions only.
Georgii A. Alexandrov, Victor A. Brovkin, Thomas Kleinen, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 17, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, 2020
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 501–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 15, 335–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A simple but powerful method for the biomisation of plant functional type distributions is introduced and tested for six different dynamic global vegetation models based on pre-industrial and palaeo-simulations. The method facilitates the direct comparison between vegetation distributions simulated by different Earth system models and between model results and the pollen-based biome reconstructions. It is therefore a powerful tool for the evaluation of Earth system models.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
Thomas Riddick, Victor Brovkin, Stefan Hagemann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Glacial Maximum, many rivers were blocked by the presence of large ice sheets and thus found new routes to the sea. This resulted in changes in the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans and thus would have significantly affected ocean circulation. Also, rivers found routes across the vast exposed continental shelves to the lower coastlines of that time. We propose a model for such changes in river routing suitable for use in wider models of the last glacial cycle.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Maarit Raivonen, Sampo Smolander, Leif Backman, Jouni Susiluoto, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Jarmo Mäkelä, Janne Rinne, Olli Peltola, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Marin Tomasic, Xuefei Li, Tuula Larmola, Sari Juutinen, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Martin Heimann, Sanna Sevanto, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Timo Vesala
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4665–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of the strong greenhouse gas methane. We developed a model that can be used within a larger wetland carbon model to simulate the methane emissions. In this study, we present the model and results of its testing. We found that the model works well with different settings and that the results depend primarily on the rate of input anoxic soil respiration and also on factors that affect the simulated oxygen concentrations in the wetland soil.
Andrey Ganopolski and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores reveal that atmospheric CO2 concentration varied synchronously with the global ice volume. Explaining the mechanism of glacial–interglacial variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the link between CO2 and ice sheets evolution still remains a challenge. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity we performed for the first time simulations of co-evolution of climate, ice sheets and carbon cycle using the astronomical forcing as the only external forcing.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Clim. Past, 12, 2145–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate trends in atmospheric CO2 during three recent interglacials – the Holocene, the Eemian and MIS 11 – using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends for all three interglacials if peat accumulation and shallow water CaCO3 sedimentation are included, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. The Holocene CO2 trend requires anthropogenic emissions of CO2 only after 3 ka BP.
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Ulrike Port, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 535–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, 2016
Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brücher, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 915–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the hotspot parameterization, a novel approach to upscaling methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of water table patterns generated by the Hummock–Hollow (HH) model. We show how the hotspot parameterization successfully upscales the micro-topographic controls on methane emissions for both present-day conditions and for the next century under three different scenarios.
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
S. Kloster, T. Brücher, V. Brovkin, and S. Wilkenskjeld
Clim. Past, 11, 781–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, 2015
U. Port, M. Claussen, and V. Brovkin
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
F. S. E. Vamborg, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 89–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, 2014
P. Dass, C. Müller, V. Brovkin, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 409–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, 2013
L. M. Verheijen, V. Brovkin, R. Aerts, G. Bönisch, J. H. C. Cornelissen, J. Kattge, P. B. Reich, I. J. Wright, and P. M. van Bodegom
Biogeosciences, 10, 5497–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, 2013
M. Claussen, K. Selent, V. Brovkin, T. Raddatz, and V. Gayler
Biogeosciences, 10, 3593–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function: Terrestrial
The fungal collaboration gradient drives root trait distribution and ecosystem processes in a tropical montane forest
Measuring and modeling waterlogging tolerance to predict the future for threatened lowland ash forests
Reviews and syntheses: Current perspectives on biosphere research 2024–2025 – eight findings from ecology, sociology, and economics
Role of air–soil temperature in the leaf area index (LAI) course and role of height–diameter at breast height (DBH) in the maximum LAI during foliation of Platanus orientalis L. in an urban–rural greenway system
Ecosystem leaf area, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration responses to wildfire in the Columbia River basin
Optimal set of leaf and aboveground tree elements for predicting forest functioning
Water usage of old-growth oak at elevated CO2 in the FACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) of climate change
Elephant megacarcasses increase local nutrient pools in African savanna soils and plants
Narrowing down dune establishment drivers on the beach
Physiological responses to ultra-high CO2 levels in an evergreen tree species
Combined effects of topography, soil moisture, and snow cover regimes on growth responses of grasslands in a low- mountain range (Vosges, France)
Assessing the effect of forest management on above-ground carbon stock by remote sensing
Soil smoldering in temperate forests: a neglected contributor to fire carbon emissions revealed by atmospheric mixing ratios
Characteristics of ecosystems under various anthropogenic impacts in a tropical forest region of Southeast Asia
Enhancing environmental models with a new downscaling method for global radiation in complex terrain
On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results
Crowd-sourced trait data can be used to delimit global biomes
Biomass yield potential, feedstock quality, and nutrient removal of perennial buffer strips under continuous zero fertilizer application
Leaf habit drives leaf nutrient resorption globally alongside nutrient availability and climate
Soil and Biomass Carbon Storage is Much Higher in Central American than Andean Montane Forests
Bio-climatic factors drive spectral vegetation changes in Greenland
Variations in vegetation evapotranspiration affect water yield in high-altitude areas
Linking geomorphological processes and wildlife microhabitat selection: nesting birds select refuges generated by permafrost degradation in the Arctic
Distinguishing mature and immature trees allows estimating forest carbon uptake from stand structure
“Blooming” of litter-mixing effects: the role of flower and leaf litter interactions on decomposition in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
Evaluating state-of-the-art process-based and data-driven models in simulating CO2 fluxes and their relationship with climate in western European temperate forests
From simple labels to semantic image segmentation: leveraging citizen science plant photographs for tree species mapping in drone imagery
Plant functional traits modulate the effects of soil acidification on above- and belowground biomass
Regional effects and local climate jointly shape the global distribution of sexual systems in woody flowering plants
Ideas and perspectives: Sensing energy and matter fluxes in a biota-dominated Patagonian landscape through environmental seismology – introducing the Pumalín Critical Zone Observatory
Comparison of carbon and water fluxes and the drivers of ecosystem water use efficiency in a temperate rainforest and a peatland in southern South America
Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming
Microclimate mapping using novel radiative transfer modelling
Root distributions predict shrub–steppe responses to precipitation intensity
Thermophilisation of Afromontane forest stands demonstrated in an elevation gradient experiment
Above-treeline ecosystems facing drought: lessons from the 2022 European summer heat wave
Canopy gaps and associated losses of biomass – combining UAV imagery and field data in a central Amazon forest
Ideas and perspectives: Beyond model evaluation – combining experiments and models to advance terrestrial ecosystem science
Primary succession and its driving variables – a sphere-spanning approach applied in proglacial areas in the upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
Contemporary biodiversity pattern is affected by climate change at multiple temporal scales in steppes on the Mongolian Plateau
Quantifying vegetation indices using terrestrial laser scanning: methodological complexities and ecological insights from a Mediterranean forest
Revisiting and attributing the global controls over terrestrial ecosystem functions of climate and plant traits at FLUXNET sites via causal graphical models
Dynamics of short-term ecosystem carbon fluxes induced by precipitation events in a semiarid grassland
Throughfall exclusion and fertilization effects on tropical dry forest tree plantations, a large-scale experiment
Tectonic controls on the ecosystem of the Mara River basin, East Africa, from geomorphological and spectral index analysis
Spruce bark beetles (Ips typographus) cause up to 700 times higher bark BVOC emission rates compared to healthy Norway spruce (Picea abies)
Technical note: Novel estimates of the leaf relative uptake rate of carbonyl sulfide from optimality theory
Observed water and light limitation across global ecosystems
A question of scale: modeling biomass, gain and mortality distributions of a tropical forest
Seed traits and phylogeny explain plants' geographic distribution
Mateus Dantas de Paula, Tatiana Reichert, Laynara F. Lugli, Erica McGale, Kerstin Pierick, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Liam Langan, Jürgen Homeier, Anja Rammig, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 22, 2707–2732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2707-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2707-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how plant roots with different forms and functions rely on fungal partnerships for nutrient uptake. This relationship was integrated into a vegetation model and was tested in a tropical forest in Ecuador. The model accurately predicted root traits and showed that without fungi, biomass decreased by up to 80 %. The findings highlight the critical role of fungi in ecosystem processes and suggest that root–fungal interactions should be considered in vegetation models.
Eric J. Gustafson, Dustin R. Bronson, Marcella A. Windmuller-Campione, Robert A. Slesak, and Deahn M. Donner
Biogeosciences, 22, 2499–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2499-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2499-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Black ash forests provide many ecological and tribal cultural benefits but may soon be killed by invasive insects. Black ash trees maintain forests on very wet sites by removing enough water to allow other species to survive. We combined results from physical experiments and a simulation model to project the ecological outcome of strategies to replace ash with species not killed by the insect. We found that this should work if ways can be found to ensure that planted trees survive to maturity.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin C. Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Mirco Migliavacca, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter H. Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
Biogeosciences, 22, 2425–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2425-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An interdisciplinary collaboration of 36 international researchers from 35 institutions highlights recent findings in biosphere research. Within eight themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. Based on an analysis of these eight topics, we have synthesized four overarching insights.
Melih Öztürk, Turgay Biricik, and Rıdvan Koruyan
Biogeosciences, 22, 2351–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2351-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2351-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Oriental plane leaf area index (LAI) values changed with a definite pattern compatible with phenological periods. Air–soil temperatures were significantly definitive regarding the course of mean LAIs, particularly during foliation. Tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH) were not correlated with point-based maximum LAIs. Point-based mean LAIs increased from 0.80 to 2.76 m2 m−2 during foliation. Mean tree height and DBH for point-based canopies ranged between 17.0–26.7 m and 26.5–38.2 cm, respectively.
Mingjie Shi, Nate McDowell, Huilin Huang, Faria Zahura, Lingcheng Li, and Xingyuan Chen
Biogeosciences, 22, 2225–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2225-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2225-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data products, we quantitatively estimate the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions to wildfires that occurred in the Columbia River basin in 2015. The carbon state exhibits lower resistance and resilience than the ecosystem fluxes. The random forest feature importance analysis indicates that burn severity plays a minor role in the resilience of grassland and a relatively major role in the resilience of forest and savanna.
Écio Souza Diniz, Eladio Rodríguez-Penedo, Roger Grau-Andrés, Jordi Vayreda, and Marcos Fernández-Martínez
Biogeosciences, 22, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we found that the accumulation of nutrients (e.g., carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium) in leaves is an important factor in explaining tree growth in forest ecosystems. This result provides evidence for forest growth studies aimed at forest conservation and restoration to better direct their resources to data collection and measurement. Collecting data on nutrient stocks in tree leaves can also provide valuable information to broaden our understanding of forest functioning.
Susan E. Quick, Giulio Curioni, Nicholas J. Harper, Stefan Krause, and A. Robert MacKenzie
Biogeosciences, 22, 1557–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1557-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1557-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To study the effects of rising CO2 levels on water usage of old-growth temperate oak forest, we monitored trees in an open-air elevated CO2 experiment for 5 years. We found 4 %–16 % leaf-on season reduction in daylight water usage for ~35% increase in atmospheric CO2. July-only reduction varied more widely. Tree water usage depended on tree size, i.e. stem size and projected canopy area, across all treatments. Experimental infrastructure increased the water usage of the trees in leaf-on season.
Courtney G. Reed, Michelle L. Budny, Johan T. du Toit, Ryan Helcoski, Joshua P. Schimel, Izak P. J. Smit, Tercia Strydom, Aimee Tallian, Dave I. Thompson, Helga van Coller, Nathan P. Lemoine, and Deron E. Burkepile
Biogeosciences, 22, 1583–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1583-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1583-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We seek to understand the ecological legacies of elephants after death. We sampled soil and leaves at elephant carcass sites in South Africa and found that elephant carcasses release nutrients into soil, which plants take up and make available for consumption by herbivores. This research reveals a key way that elephants contribute to nutrient cycling in savannas after death. It also highlights an important process that may be lost in areas where elephant populations are in decline.
Jan-Markus Homberger, Sasja van Rosmalen, Michel Riksen, and Juul Limpens
Biogeosciences, 22, 1301–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1301-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1301-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding what determines the establishment of dune-building vegetation could help to better predict coastal dune initiation and development. We monitored the establishment of dune-building grasses and dune initiation in a large field experiment. Our results show that dune initiation takes place during peaks in dune-building grass establishment, which depend on favorable environmental conditions. Our findings can potentially be integrated into beach restoration and management strategies.
Ben-El Levy, Yedidya Ben-Eliyahu, Yaniv-Brian Grunstein, Itay Halevy, and Tamir Klein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-807, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As atmospheric CO2 increases globally, plants increase the rate of photosynthesis. Still, leaf gas exchange can be downregulated by the plant. Here we tested the limits of these plant responses in a fruit tree species under very high CO2 levels, relevant to future Earth and to contemporary Mars. Plant water use decreased at 1600 ppm CO2 and remained low at 6000 ppm. Photosynthesis significantly increased at 6000 ppm. In summary, ultra-high CO2 may partly compensate for water shortage.
Pierre-Alexis Herrault, Albin Ullmann, and Damien Ertlen
Biogeosciences, 22, 705–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-705-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-705-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain grasslands are impacted by climate change and need to adapt. Low-mountain grasslands are poorly understood compared to high-mountain massifs. Thanks to satellite archives, we found that grasslands occurring in the Vosges Mountains (France) exhibited stable productivity or tended to decrease in specific regions of the massif, with a reverse signal observed in high-mountain massifs. We also noted a high responsiveness in their growth strategy to soil moisture, snow regime, and topography.
Sofie Van Winckel, Jonas Simons, Stef Lhermitte, and Bart Muys
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4094, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Insights on management's impact on forest carbon stocks are crucial for sustainable forest management practices. However, accurately monitoring carbon stocks remains a technological challenge. This study estimates above-ground carbon stock in managed and unmanaged forests using passive optical, SAR, and LiDAR remote sensing data. Results show promising potential in using multiple remote sensing predictors and publicly available high-resolution data for mapping forest carbon stocks.
Lilian Vallet, Charbel Abdallah, Thomas Lauvaux, Lilian Joly, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Morgan Lopez, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Florent Mouillot
Biogeosciences, 22, 213–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-213-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 fire season had a huge impact on European temperate forest, with several large fires exhibiting prolonged soil combustion reported. We analyzed CO and CO2 concentration recorded at nearby atmospheric towers, revealing intense smoldering combustion. We refined a fire emission model to incorporate this process. We estimated 7.95 Mteq CO2 fire emission, twice the global estimate. Fires contributed to 1.97 % of France's annual carbon footprint, reducing forest carbon sink by 30 % this year.
Chansopheaktra Sovann, Torbern Tagesson, Patrik Vestin, Sakada Sakhoeun, Soben Kim, Sothea Kok, and Stefan Olin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3784, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We offer pairwise observed datasets that compare the characteristics of tropical ecosystems, specifically pristine forests, regrowth forests, and cashew plantations. Our findings uncover some key differences in their characteristics, emphasizing the influence of human activities on these ecosystems. By sharing our unique datasets, we hope to improve the knowledge of tropical forest ecosystems in Southeast Asia, advancing tropical research, and tackling global environmental challenges.
Arsène Druel, Julien Ruffault, Hendrik Davi, André Chanzy, Olivier Marloie, Miquel De Cáceres, Albert Olioso, Florent Mouillot, Christophe François, Kamel Soudani, and Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul
Biogeosciences, 22, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate radiation data are essential for understanding ecosystem functions and dynamics. Traditional large-scale data lack the precision needed for complex terrain. This study introduces a new model, which accounts for sub-daily direct and diffuse radiation effects caused by terrain features, to enhance the radiation data resolution using elevation maps. Tested on a mountainous area, this method significantly improved radiation estimates, benefiting predictions of forest functions.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Simon Scheiter, Sophie Wolf, and Teja Kattenborn
Biogeosciences, 21, 4909–4926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4909-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4909-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Biomes are widely used to map vegetation patterns at large spatial scales and to assess impacts of climate change, yet there is no consensus on a generally valid biome classification scheme. We used crowd-sourced species distribution data and trait data to assess whether trait information is suitable for delimiting biomes. Although the trait data were heterogeneous and had large gaps with respect to the spatial distribution, we found that a global trait-based biome classification was possible.
Cheng-Hsien Lin, Colleen Zumpf, Chunhwa Jang, Thomas Voigt, Guanglong Tian, Olawale Oladeji, Albert Cox, Rehnuma Mehzabin, and DoKyoung Lee
Biogeosciences, 21, 4765–4784, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian areas are subject to environmental issues (nutrient leaching) associated with low productivity. Perennial grasses can improve ecosystem services from riparian zones while producing forage/bioenergy feedstock biomass as potential income for farmers. The forage-type buffer can be an ideal short-term candidate due to its great efficiency of nutrient scavenging; the bioenergy-type buffer showed better sustainability than the forage buffer and a continuous yield supply potential.
Gabriela Sophia, Silvia Caldararu, Benjamin David Stocker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through an extensive global dataset of leaf nutrient resorption and a multifactorial analysis, we show that the majority of spatial variation in nutrient resorption may be driven by leaf habit and type, with thicker, longer-lived leaves having lower resorption efficiencies. Climate, soil fertility and soil-related factors emerge as strong drivers with an additional effect on its role. These results are essential for comprehending plant nutrient status, plant productivity and nutrient cycling.
Cecilia M. Prada, Katherine D. Heineman, Maria J. Pardo, Camille Piponiot, and James W. Dalling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2738, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of elevation and soil nutrient availability on carbon stocks has not been evaluated for ectomycorrhizal forests in the tropics. In western Panama we calculated C pools in ten plots in an elevational gradient varying in relative abundance of EM-trees. We found exceptionally high aboveground soil C in high elevation EM-forest, in contrast to arbuscular mycorrhizal-dominated Andean forests.
Tiago Silva, Brandon Samuel Whitley, Elisabeth Machteld Biersma, Jakob Abermann, Katrine Raundrup, Natasha de Vere, Toke Thomas Høye, and Wolfgang Schöner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2571, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystems in Greenland have experienced significant changes over recent decades. Here, we show the consistency of a high-resolution polar-adapted reanalysis product to represent bio-climatic factors influencing ecological processes. Our results describe the interaction between snowmelt and soil water availability before the growing season onset, infer how changes in the growing season relate to changes in spectral greenness and identify regions of ongoing changes in vegetation distribution.
Yinying Jiao, Guofeng Zhu, Dongdong Qiu, Siyu Lu, Gaojia Meng, Rui Li, Qinqin Wang, Longhu Chen, and Wentong Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2246, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that transpiration is the key reason behind the high-altitude forest zone's limited runoff generation. Furthermore, within the altitude range of 2500–3200 meters, an increase in recirculated water vapor was observed alongside an increase in precipitation, suggesting a direct positive correlation between these two factors.
Madeleine-Zoé Corbeil-Robitaille, Éliane Duchesne, Daniel Fortier, Christophe Kinnard, and Joël Bêty
Biogeosciences, 21, 3401–3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the Arctic tundra, climate change is transforming the landscape, and this may impact wildlife. We focus on three nesting bird species and the islets they select as refuges from their main predator, the Arctic fox. A geomorphological process, ice-wedge polygon degradation, was found to play a key role in creating these refuges. This process is likely to affect predator–prey dynamics in the Arctic tundra, highlighting the connections between nature's physical and ecological systems.
Samuel M. Fischer, Xugao Wang, and Andreas Huth
Biogeosciences, 21, 3305–3319, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the drivers of forest productivity is key for accurately assessing forests’ role in the global carbon cycle. Yet, despite significant research effort, it is not fully understood how the productivity of a forest can be deduced from its stand structure. We suggest tackling this problem by identifying the share and structure of immature trees within forests and show that this approach could significantly improve estimates of forests’ net productivity and carbon uptake.
Mery Ingrid Guimarães de Alencar, Rafael D. Guariento, Bertrand Guenet, Luciana S. Carneiro, Eduardo L. Voigt, and Adriano Caliman
Biogeosciences, 21, 3165–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flowers are ephemeral organs for reproduction, and their litter is functionally different from leaf litter. Flowers can affect decomposition and interact with leaf litter, influencing decomposition non-additively. We show that mixing flower and leaf litter from the Tabebuia aurea tree creates reciprocal synergistic effects on decomposition in both terrestrial and aquatic environments. We highlight that flower litter input can generate biogeochemical hotspots in terrestrial ecosystems.
Gaïa Michel, Julien Crétat, Olivier Mathieu, Mathieu Thévenot, Andrey Dara, Robert Granat, Zhendong Wu, Clément Bonnefoy-Claudet, Julianne Capelle, Jean Cacot, and John S. Kimball
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1758, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study questions the usefulness of state-ot-the-art models to characterize the temporal variability of atmosphere-ecosystem CO2 exchanges in western European forests. Their mean annual cycle and annual budget are better captured by statistical than physical models, while their interannual variability and long-term trend are better captured by models forced by climate variability. Accounting for both forest stands and climate variability is thus key for properly assessing CO2 fluxes.
Salim Soltani, Olga Ferlian, Nico Eisenhauer, Hannes Feilhauer, and Teja Kattenborn
Biogeosciences, 21, 2909–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2909-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2909-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this research, we developed a novel method using citizen science data as alternative training data for computer vision models to map plant species in unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) images. We use citizen science plant photographs to train models and apply them to UAV images. We tested our approach on UAV images of a test site with 10 different tree species, yielding accurate results. This research shows the potential of citizen science data to advance our ability to monitor plant species.
Xue Feng, Ruzhen Wang, Tianpeng Li, Jiangping Cai, Heyong Liu, Hui Li, and Yong Jiang
Biogeosciences, 21, 2641–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2641-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Plant functional traits have been considered as reflecting adaptations to environmental variations, indirectly affecting ecosystem productivity. How soil acidification affects above- and belowground biomass by altering leaf and root traits remains poorly understood. We found divergent trait responses driven by soil environmental conditions in two dominant species, resulting in a decrease in aboveground biomass and an increase in belowground biomass.
Minhua Zhang, Xiaoqing Hu, and Fangliang He
Biogeosciences, 21, 2133–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Plant sexual systems are important to understanding the evolution and maintenance of plant diversity. We quantified region effects on their proportions while incorporating local climate factors and evolutionary history. We found regional processes and climate effects both play important roles in shaping the geographic distribution of sexual systems, providing a baseline for predicting future changes in forest communities in the context of global change.
Christian H. Mohr, Michael Dietze, Violeta Tolorza, Erwin Gonzalez, Benjamin Sotomayor, Andres Iroume, Sten Gilfert, and Frieder Tautz
Biogeosciences, 21, 1583–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal temperate rainforests, among Earth’s carbon richest biomes, are systematically underrepresented in the global network of critical zone observatories (CZOs). Introducing here a first CZO in the heart of the Patagonian rainforest, Chile, we investigate carbon sink functioning, biota-driven landscape evolution, fluxes of matter and energy, and disturbance regimes. We invite the community to join us in cross-disciplinary collaboration to advance science in this particular environment.
Jorge F. Perez-Quezada, David Trejo, Javier Lopatin, David Aguilera, Bruce Osborne, Mauricio Galleguillos, Luca Zattera, Juan L. Celis-Diez, and Juan J. Armesto
Biogeosciences, 21, 1371–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1371-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For 8 years we sampled a temperate rainforest and a peatland in Chile to estimate their efficiency to capture carbon per unit of water lost. The efficiency is more related to the water lost than to the carbon captured and is mainly driven by evaporation instead of transpiration. This is the first report from southern South America and highlights that ecosystems might behave differently in this area, likely explained by the high annual precipitation (~ 2100 mm) and light-limited conditions.
Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller
Biogeosciences, 21, 1093–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
Florian Zellweger, Eric Sulmoni, Johanna T. Malle, Andri Baltensweiler, Tobias Jonas, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Christian Ginzler, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Pieter De Frenne, David Frey, and Clare Webster
Biogeosciences, 21, 605–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms living close to the ground are not well represented in currently used climate datasets derived from weather stations. Therefore, we measured and mapped ground microclimate temperatures at 10 m spatial resolution across Switzerland using a novel radiation model. Our results reveal a high variability in microclimates across different habitats and will help to better understand climate and land use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems.
Andrew Kulmatiski, Martin C. Holdrege, Cristina Chirvasă, and Karen H. Beard
Biogeosciences, 21, 131–143, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-131-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warmer air and larger precipitation events are changing the way water moves through the soil and into plants. Here we show that detailed descriptions of root distributions can predict plant growth responses to changing precipitation patterns. Shrubs and forbs increased growth, while grasses showed no response to increased precipitation intensity, and these responses were predicted by plant rooting distributions.
Bonaventure Ntirugulirwa, Etienne Zibera, Nkuba Epaphrodite, Aloysie Manishimwe, Donat Nsabimana, Johan Uddling, and Göran Wallin
Biogeosciences, 20, 5125–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Twenty tropical tree species native to Africa were planted along an elevation gradient (1100 m, 5.4 °C difference). We found that early-successional (ES) species, especially from lower elevations, grew faster at warmer sites, while several of the late-successional (LS) species, especially from higher elevations, did not respond or grew slower. Moreover, a warmer climate increased tree mortality in LS species, but not much in ES species.
Philippe Choler
Biogeosciences, 20, 4259–4272, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4259-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The year 2022 was unique in that the summer heat wave and drought led to a widespread reduction in vegetation growth at high elevation in the European Alps. This impact was unprecedented in the southwestern, warm, and dry part of the Alps. Over the last 2 decades, water has become a co-dominant control of vegetation activity in areas that were, so far, primarily controlled by temperature, and the growth of mountain grasslands has become increasingly sensitive to moisture availability.
Adriana Simonetti, Raquel Fernandes Araujo, Carlos Henrique Souza Celes, Flávia Ranara da Silva e Silva, Joaquim dos Santos, Niro Higuchi, Susan Trumbore, and Daniel Magnabosco Marra
Biogeosciences, 20, 3651–3666, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We combined 2 years of monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery with field surveys in a central Amazon forest. Our results indicate that small gaps associated with branch fall were the most frequent. Biomass losses were partially controlled by gap area, with branch fall and snapping contributing the least and greatest relative values, respectively. Our study highlights the potential of drone images for monitoring canopy dynamics in dense tropical forests.
Silvia Caldararu, Victor Rolo, Benjamin D. Stocker, Teresa E. Gimeno, and Richard Nair
Biogeosciences, 20, 3637–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3637-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystem manipulative experiments are large experiments in real ecosystems. They include processes such as species interactions and weather that would be omitted in more controlled settings. They offer a high level of realism but are underused in combination with vegetation models used to predict the response of ecosystems to global change. We propose a workflow using models and ecosystem experiments together, taking advantage of the benefits of both tools for Earth system understanding.
Katharina Ramskogler, Bettina Knoflach, Bernhard Elsner, Brigitta Erschbamer, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Florentin Hofmeister, Livia Piermattei, Camillo Ressl, Svenja Trautmann, Michael H. Wimmer, Clemens Geitner, Johann Stötter, and Erich Tasser
Biogeosciences, 20, 2919–2939, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Primary succession in proglacial areas depends on complex driving forces. To concretise the complex effects and interaction processes, 39 known explanatory variables assigned to seven spheres were analysed via principal component analysis and generalised additive models. Key results show that in addition to time- and elevation-dependent factors, also disturbances alter vegetation development. The results are useful for debates on vegetation development in a warming climate.
Zijing Li, Zhiyong Li, Xuze Tong, Lei Dong, Ying Zheng, Jinghui Zhang, Bailing Miao, Lixin Wang, Liqing Zhao, Lu Wen, Guodong Han, Frank Yonghong Li, and Cunzhu Liang
Biogeosciences, 20, 2869–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used random forest models and structural equation models to assess the relative importance of the present climate and paleoclimate as determinants of diversity and aboveground biomass. Results showed that paleoclimate changes and modern climate jointly determined contemporary biodiversity patterns, while community biomass was mainly affected by modern climate. These findings suggest that contemporary biodiversity patterns may be affected by processes at divergent temporal scales.
William Rupert Moore Flynn, Harry Jon Foord Owen, Stuart William David Grieve, and Emily Rebecca Lines
Biogeosciences, 20, 2769–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying vegetation indices is crucial for ecosystem monitoring and modelling. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has potential to accurately measure vegetation indices, but multiple methods exist, with little consensus on best practice. We compare three methods and extract wood-to-plant ratio, a metric used to correct for wood in leaf indices. We show corrective metrics vary with tree structure and variation among methods, highlighting the value of TLS data and importance of rigorous testing.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Biogeosciences, 20, 2727–2741, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2727-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2727-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In studies on the relationship between ecosystem functions and climate and plant traits, previously used data-driven methods such as multiple regression and random forest may be inadequate for representing causality due to limitations such as covariance between variables. Based on FLUXNET site data, we used a causal graphical model to revisit the control of climate and vegetation traits over ecosystem functions.
Josué Delgado-Balbuena, Henry W. Loescher, Carlos A. Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Teresa Alfaro-Reyna, Luis F. Pineda-Martínez, Rodrigo Vargas, and Tulio Arredondo
Biogeosciences, 20, 2369–2385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2369-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the semiarid grassland, an increase in soil moisture at shallow depths instantly enhances carbon release through respiration. In contrast, deeper soil water controls plant carbon uptake but with a delay of several days. Previous soil conditions, biological activity, and the size and timing of precipitation are factors that determine the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere. Thus, future changes in precipitation patterns could convert ecosystems from carbon sinks to carbon sources.
German Vargas Gutiérrez, Daniel Pérez-Aviles, Nanette Raczka, Damaris Pereira-Arias, Julián Tijerín-Triviño, L. David Pereira-Arias, David Medvigy, Bonnie G. Waring, Ember Morrisey, Edward Brzostek, and Jennifer S. Powers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2143–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To study whether nutrient availability controls tropical dry forest responses to reductions in soil moisture, we established the first troughfall exclusion experiment in a tropical dry forest plantation system crossed with a fertilization scheme. We found that the effects of fertilization on net primary productivity are larger than the effects of a ~15 % reduction in soil moisture, although in many cases we observed an interaction between drought and nutrient additions, suggesting colimitation.
Alina Lucia Ludat and Simon Kübler
Biogeosciences, 20, 1991–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite-based analysis illustrates the impact of geological processes for the stability of the ecosystem in the Mara River basin (Kenya/Tanzania). Newly detected fault activity influences the course of river networks and modifies erosion–deposition patterns. Tectonic surface features and variations in rock chemistry lead to localized enhancement of clay and soil moisture values and seasonally stabilised vegetation growth patterns in this climatically vulnerable region.
Erica Jaakkola, Antje Gärtner, Anna Maria Jönsson, Karl Ljung, Per-Ola Olsson, and Thomas Holst
Biogeosciences, 20, 803–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Increased spruce bark beetle outbreaks were recently seen in Sweden. When Norway spruce trees are attacked, they increase their production of VOCs, attempting to kill the beetles. We provide new insights into how the Norway spruce act when infested and found the emitted volatiles to increase up to 700 times and saw a change in compound blend. We estimate that the 2020 bark beetle outbreak in Sweden could have increased the total monoterpene emissions from the forest by more than 10 %.
Georg Wohlfahrt, Albin Hammerle, Felix M. Spielmann, Florian Kitz, and Chuixiang Yi
Biogeosciences, 20, 589–596, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-589-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-589-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The trace gas carbonyl sulfide (COS), which is taken up by plant leaves in a process very similar to photosynthesis, is thought to be a promising proxy for the gross uptake of carbon dioxide by plants. Here we propose a new framework for estimating a key metric to that end, the so-called leaf relative uptake rate. The values we deduce by applying principles of plant optimality are considerably lower than published values and may help reduce the uncertainty of the global COS budget.
François Jonard, Andrew F. Feldman, Daniel J. Short Gianotti, and Dara Entekhabi
Biogeosciences, 19, 5575–5590, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of light and water limitation in plant function at the ecosystem scale. Using satellite observations, we characterize the nonlinear relationships between sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and water and light availability. This study highlights that soil moisture limitations on SIF are found primarily in drier environments, while light limitations are found in intermediately wet regions.
Nikolai Knapp, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Huth
Biogeosciences, 19, 4929–4944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4929-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The biomass of forests is determined by forest growth and mortality. These quantities can be estimated with different methods such as inventories, remote sensing and modeling. These methods are usually being applied at different spatial scales. The scales influence the obtained frequency distributions of biomass, growth and mortality. This study suggests how to transfer between scales, when using forest models of different complexity for a tropical forest.
Kai Chen, Kevin S. Burgess, Fangliang He, Xiang-Yun Yang, Lian-Ming Gao, and De-Zhu Li
Biogeosciences, 19, 4801–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4801-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4801-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Why does plants' distributional range size vary enormously? This study provides evidence that seed mass, intraspecific seed mass variation, seed dispersal mode and phylogeny contribute to explaining species distribution variation on a geographic scale. Our study clearly shows the importance of including seed life-history traits in modeling and predicting the impact of climate change on species distribution of seed plants.
Cited articles
Agresti, A.: Categorical data analysis, 996, New York, John Wiley & Sons, 1996.
Juday, G. P., Barber, V., Duffy, P., Linderholm, H., Rupp, S., Sparrow, S., Vaganov, E., Yarie, J., Berg, E., D'Arrigo, R., Eggertsson, O., Furyaev, V. V., Hogg, E. H., Huttunen, S., Jacoby, G.,d Kaplunov, V. Y., Kellomaki, S., Kirdyanov, A. V., Lewis, C. E., Linder, S., Naurzbaev, M. M., Pleshikov, F. I., Runesson, U. T., Savva, Y. V., Sidorova, O. V., Stakanov, V. D., Tchebakova, N. M., Valendik, E. F., Vedrova, E. F., and Wilmking, M: Forests, land management and agriculture, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 781–862, 2005.
Ball, J. P., Danell, K., and Sunesson, P.: Response of a herbivore community to increased food quality and quantity: an experiment with nitrogen fertilizer in a boreal forest, J. Appl. Ecol., 37, 247–255, 2000.
Balshi, M. S., Mcguire, A. D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Walsh, J., and Melillo, J.: Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 578–600, 2009.
Barona, E., Ramankutty, N., Hyman, G., and Coomes, O. T.: The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 024002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024002, 2010.
Baudena, M., Dekker, S. C., van Bodegom, P. M., Cuesta, B., Higgins, S. I., Lehsten, V., Reick, C. H., Rietkerk, M., Scheiter, S., Yin, Z., Zavala, M. A., and Brovkin, V.: Forests, savannas, and grasslands: bridging the knowledge gap between ecology and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, Biogeosciences, 12, 1833–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, 2015.
Bel, G., Hagberg, A., and Meron, E.: Gradual regime shifts in spatially extended ecosystems, Theor. Ecol., 5, 591–604, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-011-0149-6, 2012.
Benninghoff, W. S.: Interaction of vegetation and soil frost phenomena, Arctic, 5, 34–44, 1952.
Bonan, G. B.: Environmental factors and ecological processes controlling vegetation patterns in boreal forests, Landscape Ecol., 3, 111–130, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00131174, 1989.
Bonan, G. B.: Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests, Science, 320, 1444–1449, 2008.
Bonan, G. B. and Shugart, H. H.: Environmental Factors and Ecological Processes in Boreal Forests, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 20, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.20.110189.000245, 1989.
Bonan, G. B., Pollard, D., and Thompson, S. L.: Effects of boreal forest vegetation on global climate, Nature, 359, 716–718, https://doi.org/10.1038/359716a0, 1992.
Bond, W. J. and Midgley, G. F.: Carbon dioxide and the uneasy interactions of trees and savannah grasses, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 367, 601–612, 2012.
Brando, P. M., Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Morton, D. C., Putz, F. E., Coe, M. T., Silvério, D., Macedo, M. N., Davidson, E. A., Nóbrega, C. C., Alencara, A., and Soares-Filho, B. S.: Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 6347–6352, 2014.
Brouwers, N. C., Mercer, J., Lyons, T., Poot, P., Veneklaas, E., and Hardy, G.: Climate and landscape drivers of tree decline in a Mediterranean ecoregion, Ecol. Evol., 3, 67–79, 2013.
Brovkin, V., Raddatz, T., Reick, C. H., Claussen, M., and Gayler, V.: Global biogeophysical interactions between forest and climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037543, 2009.
Bryan, J. E., Shearman, P. L., Asner, G. P., Knapp, D. E., Aoro, G., and Lokes, B.: Extreme differences in forest degradation in Borneo: comparing practices in Sarawak, Sabah, and Brunei, PloS one, 8, e69679, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0069679, 2013.
Bucini, G. and Hanan, N. P.: A continental-scale analysis of tree cover in African savannas, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 16, 593–605, 2007.
Canadian Forest Service: Canadian National Fire Database – Agency Fire Data, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, available at: http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/ha/nfdb (last access: 24 January 2017), 2014.
Clark, M.: Generalized additive models: getting started with additive models in R, Center for Social Research, University of Notre Dame, 2013.
Coumou, D. and Rahmstorf, S.: A decade of weather extremes, Nature Climate Change, 2, 491–496, 2012.
Crowther, T. W., Glick, H. B., Covey, K. R., Bettigole, C., Maynard, D. S., Thomas, S. M., Smith, J. R., Hintler, G., Duguid, M. C., Amatulli, G., Tuanmu, M.-N., Jetz, W., Salas, C., Stam, C., Piotto, D., Tavani, R., Green, S., Bruce, G., Williams, S. J., Wiser, S. K., Huber, M. O., Hengeveld, G. M., Nabuurs, G.-J., Tikhonova, E., Borchardt, P., Li, C.-F., Powrie, L. W., Fischer, M., Hemp, A., Homeier, J., Cho, P., Vibrans, A. C., Umunay, P. M., Piao, S. L., Rowe, C. W., Ashton, M. S., Crane, P. R., and Bradford, M. A.: Mapping tree density at a global scale, Nature, 525, 201–205, 2015.
DeFries, R. S., Rudel, T., Uriarte, M., and Hansen, M.: Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century, Nat. Geosci., 3, 178–181, 2010.
de L. Dantas, V., Batalha, M. A., and Pausas, J. G.: Fire drives functional thresholds on the savanna-forest transition, Ecology, 94, 2454–2463, 2013.
D'Orangeville, L., Duchesne, L., Houle, D., Kneeshaw, D., Côté, B., and Pederson, N.: Northeastern North America as a potential refugium for boreal forests in a warming climate, Science, 352, 1452–1455, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf4951, 2016.
Eugster, W., Rouse, W. R., Pielke Sr, R. A., Mcfadden, J. P., Baldocchi, D. D., Kittel, T. G. F., Chapin, F., Stuart Liston, G. E., Vidale, P. L., Vaganov, E., and Chambers, S.: Land–atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate, Glob. Change Biol., 6, 84–115, 2000.
Favier, C., Aleman, J., Bremond, L., Dubois, M. A., Freycon, V., and Yangakola, J.-M.: Abrupt shifts in African savanna tree cover along a climatic gradient, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 21, 787–797, 2012.
Flannigan, M.: Fire evolution split by continent, Nat. Geosci., 8, 167–168, 2015.
Flannigan, M. D., Logan, K. A., Amiro, B. D., Skinner, W. R., and Stocks, B.: Future area burned in Canada, Climatic Change, 72, 1–16, 2005.
Fletcher, M.-S., Wood, S. W., and Haberle, S. G.: A fire-driven shift from forest to non-forest: evidence for alternative stable states?, Ecology, 95, 2504–2513, 2014.
Gauthier, S., Bernier, P., Kuuluvainen, T., Shvidenko, A., and Schepaschenko, D.: Boreal forest health and global change, Science, 349, 819–822, 2015.
Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., and van der Werf, G. R.: Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire emissions database (GFED4), J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118, 317–328, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20042, 2013.
GLC2000 database: The Global Land Cover Map for the Year 2000, European Commission Joint Research Centre, available at: http://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/glc2000/products.php (last access: 24 January 2017), 2003.
Good, P., Harper, A., Meesters, A., Robertson, E., and Betts, R.: Are strong fire–vegetation feedbacks needed to explain the spatial distribution of tropical tree cover?, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 25, 16–25, 2016.
Gruber, S.: Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation, The Cryosphere, 6, 221–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-221-2012, 2012.
Guisan, A., Edwards, T. C., and Hastie, T.: Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene, Ecol. Modell., 157, 89–100, 2002.
Hagemann, S. and Stacke, T.: Impact of the soil hydrology scheme on simulated soil moisture memory, Clim. Dynam., 44, 1731–1750, 2014.
Hall, P. and York, M.: On the calibration of Silverman's test for multimodality, Stat. Sinica, 11, 515–536, 2001.
Hanan, N. P., Tredennick, A. T., Prihodko, L., Bucini, G., and Dohn, J.: Analysis of stable states in global savannas: Is the CART pulling the horse?, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 23, 259–263, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12122, 2014.
Hansen, M. C., DeFries, R. S., Townshend, J. R., Carroll, M., DiMiceli, C., and Sohlberg, R. A.: Global percent tree cover at a spatial resolution of 500 meters: First results of the MODIS vegetation continuous fields algorithm, Earth Interact., 7, 1–15, 2003.
Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: CRU TS3.22: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.22 of High Resolution Gridded Data of Month-by-month Variation in Climate (January 1901–December 2013), University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre, 24 September 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711, 2014.
Hastie, T. J. and Tibshirani, R. J.: Generalized Additive Models (with discussion), Stat. Sci., 1, 297–318, 1986.
Hastie, T. J. and Tibshirani, R. J.: Generalized additive models, CRC Press, 43, 1990.
Havranek, W. M. and Tranquillini, W.: Physiological processes during winter dormancy and their ecological significance, Ecophysiology of coniferous forests, 95–124, 1995.
Heinselman, M. L.: Fire intensity and frequency as factors in the distribution and structure of northern ecosystems [Canadian and Alaskan boreal forests, Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, Great Lakes-Acadian forests, includes history, management, Canada, USA], USDA Forest Service General Technical Report WO, 1981.
Hengeveld, G. M., Nabuurs, G.-J., Didion, M., van den Wyngaert, I., Clerkx, A. P. P. M. S., and Schelhaas, M.-J.: A Forest Management Map of European Forests, Ecol. Soc., 17, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05149-170453, 2012.
Higgins, S. I., Bond, W. J., February, E. C., Bronn, A., Euston-Brown, D. I. W., Enslin, B., Govender, N., Rademan, L., O'Regan, S., Potgieter, A. L. F., Scheiter, S., Sowry, R., Trollope, L., and Trollope, W. S. W.: Effects of four decades of fire manipulation on woody vegetation structure in savanna, Ecology, 88, 1119–1125, 2007.
Hirota, M., Hlmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H., and Scheffer, M.: Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions, Science, 334, 232–235, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1210657, 2011.
Huntley, B.: The responses of vegetation to past and future climate changes, in: Global change and Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, 290–311, Springer, 1997.
Huntley, B., Cramer, W., Morgan, A. V., Prentice, H. C., and Allen, J. R.: Past and future rapid environmental changes: the spatial and evolutionary responses of terrestrial biota, 47, Springer Science & Business Media, 2013.
Hyvönen, R., Ågren, G. I., Linder, S., Persson, T., Cotrufo, M. F., Ekblad, A., Freeman, M., Grelle, A., Janssens, I. A., Jarvis, P. G., Kellomäki, S., Lindroth, A., Loustau, D., Lundmark, T., Norby, R. J., Oren, R., Pilegaard, K., Ryan, M. G., Sigurdsson, B. D., Strömgren, M., van Oijen, M., and Wallin, G.: The likely impact of elevated [CO2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: a literature review, New Phytol., 173, 463–480, 2007.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013.
Jasinski, J. P. and Payette, S.: The creation of alternative stable states in the southern boreal forest, Quebec, Canada, Ecol. Monogr., 75, 561–583, 2005.
Johnstone, J. F., Chapin, F. S., Hollingsworth, T. N., Mack, M. C., Romanovsky, V., and Turetsky, M.: Fire, climate change, and forest resilience in interior Alaska, Can. J. Forest Res., 40, 1302–1312, 2010.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, B., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP∕NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, NCEP Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, available at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ (last access: 24 January 2017), 1996.
Kenkel, N. C., Walker, D. J., Watson, P. R., Caners, R. T., and Lastra, R. A.: Vegetation Dynamics in Boreal Forest Ecosystems, Coenoses, 12, 97–108, 1997.
Kenneth Hare, F. and Ritchie, J. C.: The boreal bioclimates, Geogr. Rev., 333–365, 1972.
Lasslop, G., Brovkin, V., Reick, C., Bathiany, S., and Kloster, S.: Multiple stable states of tree cover in a global land surface model due to a fire-vegetation feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6324–6331, 2016.
Lindner, M., Maroschek, M., Netherer, S., Kremer, A., Barbati, A., Garcia-Gonzalo, J., Seidl, R., Delzon, S., Corona, P., Kolström, M., Lexer, M. J., and Marchetti, M,: Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems, Forest Ecol. Manag., 259, 698–709, 2010.
Lloyd, J. and Veenendaal, E. M.: Are fire mediated feedbacks burning out of control?, Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2015-660, in review, 2016.
Mäkipää, R.: Effect of nitrogen input on carbon accumulation of boreal forest soils and ground vegetation, Forest Ecol. Manag., 79, 217–226, 1995.
Malhi, Y., Roberts, J. T., Betts, R. A., Killeen, T. J., Li, W., and Nobre, C. A.: Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon, Science, 319, 169–172, 2008.
Mangeon, S., Field, R., Fromm, M., McHugh, C., and Voulgarakis, A.: Satellite versus ground-based estimates of burned area: A comparison between MODIS based burned area and fire agency reports over North America in 2007, The Anthropocene Review, 3, 76–92, https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019615588790, 2015.
May, R. M.: Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states, Nature, 269, 471–477, 1977.
McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J. A.: Generalized linear models, CRC press, 37, 1989.
Michaelian, M., Hogg, E. H., Hall, R. J., and Arsenault, E.: Massive mortality of aspen following severe drought along the southern edge of the Canadian boreal forest, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 2084–2094, 2011.
Miller, J., Franklin, J., and Aspinall, R.: Incorporating spatial dependence in predictive vegetation models, Ecol. Modell., 202, 225–242, 2007.
Mills, A. J., Milewski, A. V., Fey, M. V., Gröngröft, A., Petersen, A., and Sirami, C.: Constraint on woody cover in relation to nutrient content of soils in western southern Africa, Oikos, 122, 136–148, 2013.
Montesano, P. M., Nelson, R. F., Sun, G., Margolis, H. A., Kerber, A., and Ranson, K. J.: MODIS tree cover validation for the circumpolar taiga–tundra transition zone, Remote Sens. Environ., 113, 2130–2141, 2009.
Moreira, A. G.: Effects of fire protection on savanna structure in Central Brazil, J. Biogeogr., 27, 1021–1029, 2000.
Nilsson, M.-C. and Wardle, D. A.: Understory vegetation as a forest ecosystem driver: evidence from the northern Swedish boreal forest, Front. Ecol. Environ., 3, 421–428, 2005.
Olofsson, J., Moen, J., and Östlund, L.: Effects of reindeer on boreal forest floor vegetation: Does grazing cause vegetation state transitions?, Basic Appl. Ecol., 11, 550–557, 2010.
Orlowsky, B. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension, Climatic Change, 110, 669–696, 2012.
Otterman, J., Chou, M., and Arking, A.: Effects of nontropical forest cover on climate, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 23, 762–767, 1984.
Pan, Y., Birdsey, R. A., Fang, J., Houghton, R., Kauppi, P. E., Kurz, W. A., Phillips, O. L., Shvidenko, A., Lewis, S. L., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Pacala, S. W., McGuire, A. D., Piao, S., Rautiainen, A., Sitch, S., and Hayes, D.: A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests, Science, 333, 988–993, 2011.
Phillips, O. L., Aragão, L. E., Lewis, S. L., Fisher, J. B., Lloyd, J., López-González, G., Malhi, Y., Monteagudo, A., Peacock, J., Quesada, C. A., et al.: Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest, Science, 323, 1344–1347, 2009.
Poulter, B., Pederson, N. Liu, H., Zhu, Z. D'Arrigo, R., Ciais, P., Davi, N., Frank, D., Leland, C., Myneni, R., Piao, S., and Wang, T.: Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 178, 31–45, 2013.
Reyer, C. P. O., Brouwers, N., Rammig, A., Brook, B. W., Epila, J., Grant, R. F., Holmgren, M., Langerwisch, F., Leuzinger, Se., Lucht, W., Medlyn, B., Pfeifer, M., Steinkamp, J., Vanderwel, M. C. Verbeeck, H., and Villela, D. M.: Forest resilience and tipping points at different spatio-temporal scales: approaches and challenges, J. Ecol., 103, 5–15, 2015a.
Reyer, C. P., Rammig, A., Brouwers, N., and Langerwisch, F.: Forest resilience, tipping points and global change processes, J. Ecol., 103, 1–4, 2015b.
Rieger, S.: The genesis and classification of cold soils, Elsevier, 2013.
Rogers, B. M., Soja, A. J., Goulden, M. L., and Randerson, J. T.: Influence of tree species on continental differences in boreal fires and climate feedbacks, Nat. Geosci., 8, 228–234, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2352, 2015.
Rowe, J. and Scotter, G. W.: Fire in the boreal forest, Quaternary Res., 3, 444–464, 1973.
Rydén, B. and Kostov, L.: Thawing and freezing in tundra soils, Ecological Bulletins, 251–281, 1980.
Scheffer, M.: Critical transitions in nature and society, Princeton University Press, 2009.
Scheffer, M. and Carpenter, S. R.: Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation, Trends Ecol. Evol., 18, 648–656, 2003.
Scheffer, M., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H., and Chapin III, F. S.: Thresholds for boreal biome transitions., P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 21384–21389, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219844110, 2012.
Schmalholz, M. and Hylander, K.: Microtopography creates small-scale refugia for boreal forest floor bryophytes during clear-cut logging, Ecography, 34, 637–648, 2011.
Schulze, E.-D., Wirth, C., Mollicone, D., and Ziegler, W.: Succession after stand replacing disturbances by fire, wind throw, and insects in the dark Taiga of Central Siberia, Oecologia, 146, 77–88, 2005.
Shugart, H. H., Leemans, R., and Bonan, G. B.: A Systems Analysis of the Global Boreal Forest, Cambridge University Press, 1992.
Silverman, B. W.: Using Kernel Density Estimates to Investigate Multimodality, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 43, 97–99, 1981.
Silverman, B. W.: Density estimation for statistics and data analysis, CRC press, 26, 1986.
Skopp, J., Jawson, M., and Doran, J.: Steady-state aerobic microbial activity as a function of soil water content, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 54, 1619–1625, 1990.
Soja, A. J., Tchebakova, N. M., French, N. H., Flannigan, M. D., Shugart, H. H., Stocks, B. J., Sukhinin, A. I., Parfenova, E., Chapin, F. S., and Stackhouse, P. W.: Climate-induced boreal forest change: predictions versus current observations, Global Planet. Change, 56, 274–296, 2007.
Staal, A. and Flores, B. M.: Sharp ecotones spark sharp ideas: comment on “Structural, physiognomic and above-ground biomass variation in savanna-forest transition zones on three continents – how different are co-occurring savanna and forest formations?” by Veenendaal et al. (2015), Biogeosciences, 12, 5563–5566, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5563-2015, 2015.
Staal, A., Dekker, S. C., Hirota, M., and van Nes, E. H.: Synergistic effects of drought and deforestation on the resilience of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest, Ecol. Complex., 22, 65–75, 2015.
Staver, A. C. and Hansen, C. M.: Analysis of stable states in global savannas: is the CART pulling the horse? – a Comment, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 24, 985–987, 2015.
Staver, A. C. and Levin, S. A.: Integrating theoretical climate and fire effects on savanna and forest systems, Am. Nat., 180, 211–224, 2012.
Staver, A. C., Archibald, S., and Levin, S.: Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: Rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states, Ecology, 92, 1063–1072, https://doi.org/10.1890/i0012-9658-92-5-1063, 2011a.
Staver, A. C., Archibald, S., and Levin, S. A.: The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states, Science, 334, 230–232, 2011b.
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., Folke, C., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Mace, G. M., Persson, L. M., Ramanathan, V., Reyers, B., and Sörlin, S.: Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet, Science, 347, 6223, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259855, 2015.
Townshend, J. R., Carroll, M., DiMiceli, C., Sohlberg, R., Hansen, M., and DeFries, R.: Vegetation Continuous Fields MOD44B, 2010 Percent Tree Cover, Collection 5, Version 1, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, provided on 0.05 degree Climate Modeling Grid in NetCDF by the Integrated Climate Data Center (ICDC) University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, available at: http://icdc.zmaw.de(last access: 24 January 2017), 2010.
US Geological Survey: Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO30), US Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, 1996.
van den Dool, H., Huang, J., and Fan, Y.: Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to U.S. soil moisture over 1981-2001, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8617, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003114, 2003.
van Nes, E. H., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., and Scheffer, M.: Tipping points in tropical tree cover: linking theory to data, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 1016–1021, 2014.
Veenendaal, E. M., Torello-Raventos, M., Feldpausch, T. R., Domingues, T. F., Gerard, F., Schrodt, F., Saiz, G., Quesada, C. A., Djagbletey, G., Ford, A., Kemp, J., Marimon, B. S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Lenza, E., Ratter, J. A., Maracahipes, L., Sasaki, D., Sonké, B., Zapfack, L., Villarroel, D., Schwarz, M., Yoko Ishida, F., Gilpin, M., Nardoto, G. B., Affum-Baffoe, K., Arroyo, L., Bloomfield, K., Ceca, G., Compaore, H., Davies, K., Diallo, A., Fyllas, N. M., Gignoux, J., Hien, F., Johnson, M., Mougin, E., Hiernaux, P., Killeen, T., Metcalfe, D., Miranda, H. S., Steininger, M., Sykora, K., Bird, M. I., Grace, J., Lewis, S., Phillips, O. L., and Lloyd, J.: Structural, physiognomic and above-ground biomass variation in savanna-forest transition zones on three continents – how different are co-occurring savanna and forest formations?, Biogeosciences, 12, 2927–2951, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2927-2015, 2015.
Volney, W. J. A. and Fleming, R. A.: Climate change and impacts of boreal forest insects, Agriculture, Ecosyst. Environ., 82, 283–294, 2000.
Wal, R. V. D.: Do herbivores cause habitat degradation or vegetation state transition? Evidence from the tundra, Oikos, 114, 177–186, 2006.
Warman, L. and Moles, A. T.: Alternative stable states in Australia's Wet Tropics: a theoretical framework for the field data and a field-case for the theory, Landscape Ecol., 24, 1–13, 2009.
Wirth, C.: Fire regime and tree diversity in boreal forests: implications for the carbon cycle, in: Forest Diversity and Function, 309–344, Springer, 2005.
Wolken, J. M., Hollingsworth, T. N., Rupp, T. S., Chapin, F. S., Trainor, S. F., Barrett, T. M., Sullivan, P. F., McGuire, A. D., Euskirchen, E. S., Hennon, P. E., Beever, E. A., Conn, J. S., Crone, L. K., D'Amore, D. V., Fresco, N., Hanley, T. A., Kielland, K., Kruse, J. J., Patterson, T., Schuur, E. A. G., Verbyla, D. L., and Yarie, J.: Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems, Ecosphere, 2, 1–35, 2011.
Woodward, F. I.: Climate and plant distribution, Cambridge University Press, 1987.
Xu, C., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H., Hirota, M., Chapin III, F. S., and Scheffer, M.: A Changing Number of Alternative States in the Boreal Biome: Reproducibility Risks of Replacing Remote Sensing Products, Plos One, 10, e0143014, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143014, 2015.
Yin, Z., Dekker, S. C., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., and Dijkstra, H. A.: The climatic imprint of bimodal distributions in vegetation cover for western Africa, Biogeosciences, 13, 3343–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, 2016.
Zhang, T., McCreight, J., and Barry, R. G.: Arctic EASE-Grid Freeze and Thaw Depths, 1901–2002, Version 1, Boulder, Colorado USA, NSIDC: National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2006.
Short summary
We study the link between the boreal tree-cover fraction distribution and eight globally observed environmental factors. We find that they exert a strong control over the tree-cover distribution, generally uniquely determining its state. Furthermore, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree-cover states under the same environmental conditions. These areas represent transition zones with reduced resilience, where the forest can shift between different vegetation states.
We study the link between the boreal tree-cover fraction distribution and eight globally...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint