Articles | Volume 17, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
25 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 25 Sep 2020
| 25 Sep 2020
Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2
Friedrich A. Burger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Jasmin G. John
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Krysten Rutherford, Katja Fennel, Lina Garcia Suarez, and Jasmin G. John
Biogeosciences, 21, 301–314, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We downscaled two mid-century (~2075) ocean model projections to a high-resolution regional ocean model of the northwest North Atlantic (NA) shelf. In one projection, the NA shelf break current practically disappears; in the other it remains almost unchanged. This leads to a wide range of possible future shelf properties. More accurate projections of coastal circulation features would narrow the range of possible outcomes of biogeochemical projections for shelf regions.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate a model for northwest Atlantic Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry that balances high resolution with computational economy by building on the new regional features in the MOM6 ocean model and COBALT biogeochemical model. We test the model's ability to simulate impactful historical variability and find that the model simulates the mean state and variability of most features well, which suggests the model can provide information to inform living-marine-resource applications.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Charlotte Laufkötter, Cecile S. Rousseaux, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 18, 2119–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Marine ecosystems could suffer severe damage from the co-occurrence of a marine heat wave with extremely low chlorophyll concentration. Here, we provide a first assessment of compound marine heat wave and
low-chlorophyll events in the global ocean from 1998 to 2018. We reveal hotspots of these compound events in the equatorial Pacific and in the Arabian Sea and show that they mostly occur in summer at high latitudes and their frequency is modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Angélique Hameau, Thomas L. Frölicher, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 1877–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean deoxygenation and warming are observed and projected to intensify under continued greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas temperature is considered the main climate change indicator, we show that in certain regions, thermocline doxygenation may be detectable before warming.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Jaime B. Palter, Thomas L. Frölicher, David Paynter, and Jasmin G. John
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 817–828, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may require carbon removal from the atmosphere. We explore how the climate system differs when we achieve the 1.5 °C limit by rapid emissions reductions versus when we overshoot this limit, hitting 2 °C at mid-century before removing CO2 from the atmosphere. We show that sea level, ocean acidification, regional warming, and ocean circulation are very different under the overshoot pathway at 2100, despite hitting the 1.5 °C target for surface warming.
Giuliana Turi, Michael Alexander, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Antonietta Capotondi, James Scott, Charles Stock, John Dunne, Jasmin John, and Michael Jacox
Ocean Sci., 14, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution global model was used to study the influence of El Niño/La Niña events on the California Current System (CalCS). The mean surface oxygen (O2) response extends well offshore, where the pH response occurs within ~ 100 km of the coast. The surface O2 (pH) is primarily driven by temperature (upwelling) changes. Below 100 m, anomalously low O2 and low pH occurred during La Niña events near the coast, potentially stressing the ecosystem, but there are large variations between events.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Roland Seferian, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
K. B. Rodgers, J. Lin, and T. L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 12, 3301–3320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A large initial-condition ensemble suite of simulations with an Earth system model is applied to evaluate emergence characteristics of four ocean ecosystem drivers under climate change. The drivers considered are warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and perturbations to biological productivity. The spatial and temporal hierarchies of the emergence of these drivers are considered, using concepts of both time of emergence (ToE) and confidence intervals.
C. A. Stock, J. P. Dunne, and J. G. John
Biogeosciences, 11, 7125–7135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change projections suggest large regional ocean productivity shifts for mesozooplankton, an important food resource for fish, which are amplified relative to changes in phytoplankton production. Amplification is attributed to changes in planktonic food web dynamics under global warming. Results have implications for regional economies and food security. Improved understanding of the response of plankton food webs to climate change is essential to refine amplification estimates.
M. R. Raupach, M. Gloor, J. L. Sarmiento, J. G. Canadell, T. L. Frölicher, T. Gasser, R. A. Houghton, C. Le Quéré, and C. M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 11, 3453–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014, 2014
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. G. John, A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and J. P. Dunne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12021–12036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Open Ocean
Assessing the impact of CO2-equilibrated ocean alkalinity enhancement on microbial metabolic rates in an oligotrophic system
Phosphomonoesterase and phosphodiesterase activities in the eastern Mediterranean in two contrasting seasonal situations
Net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic projected to shift in the 21st century
Testing the influence of light on nitrite cycling in the eastern tropical North Pacific
Loss of nitrogen via anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) in the California Current system during the late Quaternary
Technical note: Assessment of float pH data quality control methods – a case study in the subpolar northwest Atlantic Ocean
Effects of grain size and seawater salinity on magnesium hydroxide dissolution and secondary calcium carbonate precipitation kinetics: implications for ocean alkalinity enhancement
Linking northeastern North Pacific oxygen changes to upstream surface outcrop variations
Short-term response of Emiliania huxleyi growth and morphology to abrupt salinity stress
Underestimation of multi-decadal global O2 loss due to an optimal interpolation method
Reviews and syntheses: expanding the global coverage of gross primary production and net community production measurements using Biogeochemical-Argo floats
Characteristics of surface physical and biogeochemical parameters within mesoscale eddies in the Southern Ocean
Climatic Controls on Metabolic Constraints in the Ocean
Seasonal dynamics and annual budget of dissolved inorganic carbon in the northwestern Mediterranean deep-convection region
The fingerprint of climate variability on the surface ocean cycling of iron and its isotopes
Reconstructing the ocean's mesopelagic zone carbon budget: sensitivity and estimation of parameters associated with prokaryotic remineralization
Evolution of oxygen and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth System Models
Seasonal cycles of biogeochemical fluxes in the Scotia Sea, Southern Ocean: a stable isotope approach
Biological impact of ocean alkalinity enhancement of magnesium hydroxide on marine microalgae using bioassays simulating ship-based dispersion
Absence of photophysiological response to iron addition in autumn phytoplankton in the Antarctic sea-ice zone
Optimal parameters for the ocean's nutrient, carbon, and oxygen cycles compensate for circulation biases but replumb the biological pump
Importance of multiple sources of iron for the upper-ocean biogeochemistry over the northern Indian Ocean
Exploring the role of different data types and timescales in the quality of marine biogeochemical model calibration
All about nitrite: exploring nitrite sources and sinks in the eastern tropical North Pacific oxygen minimum zone
Fossil coccolith morphological attributes as a new proxy for deep ocean carbonate chemistry
Reconstructing ocean carbon storage with CMIP6 Earth system models and synthetic Argo observations
Using machine learning and Biogeochemical-Argo (BGC-Argo) floats to assess biogeochemical models and optimize observing system design
The representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump from CMIP5 to CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for the carbon cycle
Model estimates of metazoans' contributions to the biological carbon pump
Tracing differences in iron supply to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge valley between hydrothermal vent sites: implications for the addition of iron to the deep ocean
Nitrite cycling in the primary nitrite maxima of the eastern tropical North Pacific
Hotspots and drivers of compound marine heatwaves and low net primary production extremes
Ecosystem impacts of marine heat waves in the northeast Pacific
Tracing the role of Arctic shelf processes in Si and N cycling and export through the Fram Strait: insights from combined silicon and nitrate isotopes
Controls on the relative abundances and rates of nitrifying microorganisms in the ocean
The response of diazotrophs to nutrient amendment in the South China Sea and western North Pacific
Influence of GEOTRACES data distribution and misfit function choice on objective parameter retrieval in a marine zinc cycle model
Physiological flexibility of phytoplankton impacts modelled chlorophyll and primary production across the North Pacific Ocean
Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models
Early winter barium excess in the southern Indian Ocean as an annual remineralisation proxy (GEOTRACES GIPr07 cruise)
Controlling factors on the global distribution of a representative marine non-cyanobacterial diazotroph phylotype (Gamma A)
Summer trends and drivers of sea surface fCO2 and pH changes observed in the southern Indian Ocean over the last two decades (1998–2019)
Global nutrient cycling by commercially targeted marine fish
Major processes of the dissolved cobalt cycle in the North and equatorial Pacific Ocean
The impact of the South-East Madagascar Bloom on the oceanic CO2 sink
Nitrite regeneration in the oligotrophic Atlantic Ocean
Bridging the gaps between particulate backscattering measurements and modeled particulate organic carbon in the ocean
Biological production in two contrasted regions of the Mediterranean Sea during the oligotrophic period: an estimate based on the diel cycle of optical properties measured by BioGeoChemical-Argo profiling floats
Acidification of the Nordic Seas
Reconstruction of global surface ocean pCO2 using region-specific predictors based on a stepwise FFNN regression algorithm
Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Nauzet Hernández-Hernández, Joaquín Ortiz, Stephen D. Archer, Andrea Ludwig, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 21, 2859–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2859-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2859-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our planet is facing a climate crisis. Scientists are working on innovative solutions that will aid in capturing the hard to abate emissions before it is too late. Exciting research reveals that ocean alkalinity enhancement, a key climate change mitigation strategy, does not harm phytoplankton, the cornerstone of marine ecosystems. Through meticulous study, we may have uncovered a positive relationship: up to a specific limit, enhancing ocean alkalinity boosts photosynthesis by certain species.
France Van Wambeke, Pascal Conan, Mireille Pujo-Pay, Vincent Taillandier, Olivier Crispi, Alexandra Pavlidou, Sandra Nunige, Morgane Didry, Christophe Salmeron, and Elvira Pulido-Villena
Biogeosciences, 21, 2621–2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phosphomonoesterase (PME) and phosphodiesterase (PDE) activities over the epipelagic zone are described in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in winter and autumn. The types of concentration kinetics obtained for PDE (saturation at 50 µM, high Km, high turnover times) compared to those of PME (saturation at 1 µM, low Km, low turnover times) are discussed in regard to the possible inequal distribution of PDE and PME in the size continuum of organic material and accessibility to phosphodiesters.
Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Matthias Gröger, Jörg Schwinger, Raffaele Bernadello, Etienne Tourigny, Valentina Sicardi, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, and Klaus Wyser
Biogeosciences, 21, 2189–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The timing of the net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic in the period 1750–2100 is investigated using two Earth system models and the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. It is found that, for most of the region, the annual maxima occur progressively earlier, with the most change occurring after the year 2000. Shifts in the seasonality of the primary production may impact the entire ecosystem, which highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in this area.
Nicole M. Travis, Colette L. Kelly, and Karen L. Casciotti
Biogeosciences, 21, 1985–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted experimental manipulations of light level on microbial communities from the primary nitrite maximum. Overall, while individual microbial processes have different directions and magnitudes in their response to increasing light, the net community response is a decline in nitrite production with increasing light. We conclude that while increased light may decrease net nitrite production, high-light conditions alone do not exclude nitrification from occurring in the surface ocean.
Zoë Rebecca van Kemenade, Zeynep Erdem, Ellen Christine Hopmans, Jaap Smede Sinninghe Damsté, and Darci Rush
Biogeosciences, 21, 1517–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1517-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The California Current system (CCS) hosts the eastern subtropical North Pacific oxygen minimum zone (ESTNP OMZ). This study shows anaerobic ammonium oxidizing (anammox) bacteria cause a loss of bioavailable nitrogen (N) in the ESTNP OMZ throughout the late Quaternary. Anammox occurred during both glacial and interglacial periods and was driven by the supply of organic matter and changes in ocean currents. These findings may have important consequences for biogeochemical models of the CCS.
Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Tobias Steinhoff, Birgit Klein, Henry Bittig, and Arne Körtzinger
Biogeosciences, 21, 1191–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The marine CO2 system can be measured independently and continuously by BGC-Argo floats since numerous pH sensors have been developed to suit these autonomous measurements platforms. By applying the Argo correction routines to float pH data acquired in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, we report the uncertainty and lack of objective criteria associated with the choice of the reference method as well the reference depth for the pH correction.
Charly Andre Moras, Tyler Cyronak, Lennart Thomas Bach, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai Georg Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-645, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of mineral grain size and seawater salinity on magnesium hydroxide dissolution and calcium carbonate precipitation kinetics for ocean alkalinity enhancement. Salinity did not affect the dissolution, but calcium carbonate formed earlier at lower salinities due to the lower magnesium and dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Smaller grain size dissolved faster, but calcium carbonate precipitated earlier, suggesting that medium grain size is optimum for both kinetics.
Sabine Mecking and Kyla Drushka
Biogeosciences, 21, 1117–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates whether northeastern North Pacific oxygen changes may be caused by surface density changes in the northwest as water moves along density horizons from the surface into the subsurface ocean. A correlation is found with a lag that about matches the travel time of water from the northwest to the northeast. Salinity is the main driver causing decadal changes in surface density, whereas salinity and temperature contribute about equally to long-term declining density trends.
Rosie M. Sheward, Christina Gebühr, Jörg Bollmann, and Jens O. Herrle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-349, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How quickly do marine microorganisms respond to salinity stress? Our experiments with the calcifying marine plankton Emiliania huxleyi show that growth and cell morphology responded to salinity stress within as little as 24–48 hours, demonstrating that morphology and calcification is sensitive to salinity over a range of timescales. Our results have implications for understanding the short-term role of E. huxleyi in biogeochemical cycles and size-based paleoproxies for salinity.
Takamitsu Ito, Hernan E. Garcia, Zhankun Wang, Shoshiro Minobe, Matthew C. Long, Just Cebrian, James Reagan, Tim Boyer, Christopher Paver, Courtney Bouchard, Yohei Takano, Seth Bushinsky, Ahron Cervania, and Curtis A. Deutsch
Biogeosciences, 21, 747–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-747-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-747-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to estimate how much oceanic oxygen has been lost and its uncertainties. One major source of uncertainty comes from the statistical gap-filling methods. Outputs from Earth system models are used to generate synthetic observations where oxygen data are extracted from the model output at the location and time of historical oceanographic cruises. Reconstructed oxygen trend is approximately two-thirds of the true trend.
Robert W. Izett, Katja Fennel, Adam C. Stoer, and David P. Nicholson
Biogeosciences, 21, 13–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an overview of the capacity to expand the global coverage of marine primary production estimates using autonomous ocean-going instruments, called Biogeochemical-Argo floats. We review existing approaches to quantifying primary production using floats, provide examples of the current implementation of the methods, and offer insights into how they can be better exploited. This paper is timely, given the ongoing expansion of the Biogeochemical-Argo array.
Qian Liu, Yingjie Liu, and Xiaofeng Li
Biogeosciences, 20, 4857–4874, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the Southern Ocean, abundant eddies behave opposite to our expectations. That is, anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies are cold (warm). By investigating the variations of physical and biochemical parameters in eddies, we find that abnormal eddies have unique and significant effects on modulating the parameters. This study fills a gap in understanding the effects of abnormal eddies on physical and biochemical parameters in the Southern Ocean.
Precious Mongwe, Matthew Long, Takamitsu Ito, Curtis Deutsch, and Yeray Santana-Falcón
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2822, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a collection of measurements that captures the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature and oxygen, and a model to investigate how natural climate variations and climate warming will impact the ability of marine heterotrophic marine organisms to support habitat in the future. We find that warming and the related loss of marine dissolved oxygen over the next several decades will reduce the volume of ocean habitat, and increasing vulnerability to temperature-oxygen extremes.
Caroline Ulses, Claude Estournel, Patrick Marsaleix, Karline Soetaert, Marine Fourrier, Laurent Coppola, Dominique Lefèvre, Franck Touratier, Catherine Goyet, Véronique Guglielmi, Fayçal Kessouri, Pierre Testor, and Xavier Durrieu de Madron
Biogeosciences, 20, 4683–4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Deep convection plays a key role in the circulation, thermodynamics, and biogeochemical cycles in the Mediterranean Sea, considered to be a hotspot of biodiversity and climate change. In this study, we investigate the seasonal and annual budget of dissolved inorganic carbon in the deep-convection area of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea.
Daniela König and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 20, 4197–4212, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using model simulations, we show that natural and anthropogenic changes in the global climate leave a distinct fingerprint in the isotopic signatures of iron in the surface ocean. We find that these climate effects on iron isotopes are often caused by the redistribution of iron from different external sources to the ocean, due to changes in ocean currents, and by changes in algal growth, which take up iron. Thus, isotopes may help detect climate-induced changes in iron supply and algal uptake.
Chloé Baumas, Robin Fuchs, Marc Garel, Jean-Christophe Poggiale, Laurent Memery, Frédéric A. C. Le Moigne, and Christian Tamburini
Biogeosciences, 20, 4165–4182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4165-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Through the sink of particles in the ocean, carbon (C) is exported and sequestered when reaching 1000 m. Attempts to quantify C exported vs. C consumed by heterotrophs have increased. Yet most of the conducted estimations have led to C demands several times higher than C export. The choice of parameters greatly impacts the results. As theses parameters are overlooked, non-accurate values are often used. In this study we show that C budgets can be well balanced when using appropriate values.
Lyuba Novi, Annalisa Bracco, Takamitsu Ito, and Yohei Takano
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-129, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
We explored the relationship between oxygen and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean, using a combination of data mining and machine learning. We used isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV) as an indicator to quantify ocean ventilation and we analyzed its predictability, a strong O2-IPV connection and predictability for IPV in the tropical Pacific. This open new routes to monitor ocean O2 through few observational sites co-located with more abundant IPV measurements in the tropical Pacific.
Anna Belcher, Sian F. Henley, Katharine Hendry, Marianne Wootton, Lisa Friberg, Ursula Dallman, Tong Wang, Christopher Coath, and Clara Manno
Biogeosciences, 20, 3573–3591, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The oceans play a crucial role in the uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, particularly the Southern Ocean. The biological pumping of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean is key to this. Using sediment trap samples from the Scotia Sea, we examine biogeochemical fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and biogenic silica and their stable isotope compositions. We find phytoplankton community structure and physically mediated processes are important controls on particulate fluxes to the deep ocean.
Stephanie Delacroix, Tor Jensen Nystuen, Erik Höglund, and Andrew L. King
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-138, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
The addition of alkaline minerals into the oceans might reduce the excessive anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Magnesium hydroxide can be added in large amount because of its low seawater solubility without reaching harmful pH levels. The toxicity effect results of magnesium hydroxide, by simulating expected concentrations from a ships’ dispersion scenario, demonstrated low impacts on both sensitive and local assemblages of marine microalgae when compared to calcium hydroxide and sodium hydroxide.
Asmita Singh, Susanne Fietz, Sandy J. Thomalla, Nicolas Sanchez, Murat V. Ardelan, Sébastien Moreau, Hanna M. Kauko, Agneta Fransson, Melissa Chierici, Saumik Samanta, Thato N. Mtshali, Alakendra N. Roychoudhury, and Thomas J. Ryan-Keogh
Biogeosciences, 20, 3073–3091, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3073-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3073-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the scarcity of iron in the Southern Ocean, seasonal blooms occur due to changes in nutrient and light availability. Surprisingly, during an autumn bloom in the Antarctic sea-ice zone, the results from incubation experiments showed no significant photophysiological response of phytoplankton to iron addition. This suggests that ambient iron concentrations were sufficient, challenging the notion of iron deficiency in the Southern Ocean through extended iron-replete post-bloom conditions.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Richard J. Matear, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, and François W. Primeau
Biogeosciences, 20, 2985–3009, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2985-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2985-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the ocean's carbon and oxygen cycles accurately is challenging. Parameter optimization improves the fit to observed tracers but can introduce artifacts in the biological pump. Organic-matter production and subsurface remineralization rates adjust to compensate for circulation biases, changing the pathways and timescales with which nutrients return to the surface. Circulation biases can thus strongly alter the system’s response to ecological change, even when parameters are optimized.
Priyanka Banerjee
Biogeosciences, 20, 2613–2643, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2613-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2613-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that atmospheric deposition is the most important source of iron to the upper northern Indian Ocean for phytoplankton growth. This is followed by iron from continental-shelf sediment. Phytoplankton increase following iron addition is possible only with high background levels of nitrate. Vertical mixing is the most important physical process supplying iron to the upper ocean in this region throughout the year. The importance of ocean currents in supplying iron varies seasonally.
Iris Kriest, Julia Getzlaff, Angela Landolfi, Volkmar Sauerland, Markus Schartau, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 20, 2645–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2645-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global biogeochemical ocean models are often subjectively assessed and tuned against observations. We applied different strategies to calibrate a global model against observations. Although the calibrated models show similar tracer distributions at the surface, they differ in global biogeochemical fluxes, especially in global particle flux. Simulated global volume of oxygen minimum zones varies strongly with calibration strategy and over time, rendering its temporal extrapolation difficult.
John C. Tracey, Andrew R. Babbin, Elizabeth Wallace, Xin Sun, Katherine L. DuRussel, Claudia Frey, Donald E. Martocello III, Tyler Tamasi, Sergey Oleynik, and Bess B. Ward
Biogeosciences, 20, 2499–2523, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2499-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen (N) is essential for life; thus, its availability plays a key role in determining marine productivity. Using incubations of seawater spiked with a rare form of N measurable on a mass spectrometer, we quantified microbial pathways that determine marine N availability. The results show that pathways that recycle N have higher rates than those that result in its loss from biomass and present new evidence for anaerobic nitrite oxidation, a process long thought to be strictly aerobic.
Amanda Gerotto, Hongrui Zhang, Renata Hanae Nagai, Heather M. Stoll, Rubens César Lopes Figueira, Chuanlian Liu, and Iván Hernández-Almeida
Biogeosciences, 20, 1725–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the analysis of the response of coccolithophores’ morphological attributes in a laboratory dissolution experiment and surface sediment samples from the South China Sea, we proposed that the thickness shape (ks) factor of fossil coccoliths together with the normalized ks variation, which is the ratio of the standard deviation of ks (σ) over the mean ks (σ/ks), is a robust and novel proxy to reconstruct past changes in deep ocean carbon chemistry.
Katherine E. Turner, Doug M. Smith, Anna Katavouta, and Richard G. Williams
Biogeosciences, 20, 1671–1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method for reconstructing ocean carbon using climate models and temperature and salinity observations. To test this method, we reconstruct modelled carbon using synthetic observations consistent with current sampling programmes. Sensitivity tests show skill in reconstructing carbon trends and variability within the upper 2000 m. Our results indicate that this method can be used for a new global estimate for ocean carbon content.
Alexandre Mignot, Hervé Claustre, Gianpiero Cossarini, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Elodie Gutknecht, Julien Lamouroux, Paolo Lazzari, Coralie Perruche, Stefano Salon, Raphaëlle Sauzède, Vincent Taillandier, and Anna Teruzzi
Biogeosciences, 20, 1405–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are becoming a major tool to detect and predict the impact of climate change on marine resources and monitor ocean health. Here, we demonstrate the use of the global array of BGC-Argo floats for the assessment of biogeochemical models. We first detail the handling of the BGC-Argo data set for model assessment purposes. We then present 23 assessment metrics to quantify the consistency of BGC model simulations with respect to BGC-Argo data.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Jérôme Pinti, Tim DeVries, Tommy Norin, Camila Serra-Pompei, Roland Proud, David A. Siegel, Thomas Kiørboe, Colleen M. Petrik, Ken H. Andersen, Andrew S. Brierley, and André W. Visser
Biogeosciences, 20, 997–1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-997-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-997-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Large numbers of marine organisms such as zooplankton and fish perform daily vertical migration between the surface (at night) and the depths (in the daytime). This fascinating migration is important for the carbon cycle, as these organisms actively bring carbon to depths where it is stored away from the atmosphere for a long time. Here, we quantify the contributions of different animals to this carbon drawdown and storage and show that fish are important to the biological carbon pump.
Alastair J. M. Lough, Alessandro Tagliabue, Clément Demasy, Joseph A. Resing, Travis Mellett, Neil J. Wyatt, and Maeve C. Lohan
Biogeosciences, 20, 405–420, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-405-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Iron is a key nutrient for ocean primary productivity. Hydrothermal vents are a source of iron to the oceans, but the size of this source is poorly understood. This study examines the variability in iron inputs between hydrothermal vents in different geological settings. The vents studied release different amounts of Fe, resulting in plumes with similar dissolved iron concentrations but different particulate concentrations. This will help to refine modelling of iron-limited ocean productivity.
Nicole M. Travis, Colette L. Kelly, Margaret R. Mulholland, and Karen L. Casciotti
Biogeosciences, 20, 325–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-325-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The primary nitrite maximum is a ubiquitous upper ocean feature where nitrite accumulates, but we still do not understand its formation and the co-occurring microbial processes involved. Using correlative methods and rates measurements, we found strong spatial patterns between environmental conditions and depths of the nitrite maxima, but not the maximum concentrations. Nitrification was the dominant source of nitrite, with occasional high nitrite production from phytoplankton near the coast.
Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Keith B. Rodgers, Ryohei Yamaguchi, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 19, 5807–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events threaten marine ecosystems. Here, we investigate the potentially harmful combination of marine heatwaves with low phytoplankton productivity. Using satellite-based observations, we show that these compound events are frequent in the low latitudes. We then investigate the drivers of these compound events using Earth system models. The models share similar drivers in the low latitudes but disagree in the high latitudes due to divergent factors limiting phytoplankton production.
Abigale M. Wyatt, Laure Resplandy, and Adrian Marchetti
Biogeosciences, 19, 5689–5705, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine heat waves (MHWs) are a frequent event in the northeast Pacific, with a large impact on the region's ecosystems. Large phytoplankton in the North Pacific Transition Zone are greatly affected by decreased nutrients, with less of an impact in the Alaskan Gyre. For small phytoplankton, MHWs increase the spring small phytoplankton population in both regions thanks to reduced light limitation. In both zones, this results in a significant decrease in the ratio of large to small phytoplankton.
Margot C. F. Debyser, Laetitia Pichevin, Robyn E. Tuerena, Paul A. Dodd, Antonia Doncila, and Raja S. Ganeshram
Biogeosciences, 19, 5499–5520, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the exchange of key nutrients for algae production between the Arctic and Atlantic oceans through the Fram Strait. We show that the export of dissolved silicon here is controlled by the availability of nitrate which is influenced by denitrification on Arctic shelves. We suggest that any future changes in the river inputs of silica and changes in denitrification due to climate change will impact the amount of silicon exported, with impacts on Atlantic algal productivity and ecology.
Emily J. Zakem, Barbara Bayer, Wei Qin, Alyson E. Santoro, Yao Zhang, and Naomi M. Levine
Biogeosciences, 19, 5401–5418, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a microbial ecosystem model to quantitatively explain the mechanisms controlling observed relative abundances and nitrification rates of ammonia- and nitrite-oxidizing microorganisms in the ocean. We also estimate how much global carbon fixation can be associated with chemoautotrophic nitrification. Our results improve our understanding of the controls on nitrification, laying the groundwork for more accurate predictions in global climate models.
Zuozhu Wen, Thomas J. Browning, Rongbo Dai, Wenwei Wu, Weiying Li, Xiaohua Hu, Wenfang Lin, Lifang Wang, Xin Liu, Zhimian Cao, Haizheng Hong, and Dalin Shi
Biogeosciences, 19, 5237–5250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5237-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fe and P are key factors controlling the biogeography and activity of marine N2-fixing microorganisms. We found lower abundance and activity of N2 fixers in the northern South China Sea than around the western boundary of the North Pacific, and N2 fixation rates switched from Fe–P co-limitation to P limitation. We hypothesize the Fe supply rates and Fe utilization strategies of each N2 fixer are important in regulating spatial variability in community structure across the study area.
Claudia Eisenring, Sophy E. Oliver, Samar Khatiwala, and Gregory F. de Souza
Biogeosciences, 19, 5079–5106, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the sparsity of observational constraints on micronutrients such as zinc (Zn), we assess the sensitivities of a framework for objective parameter optimisation in an oceanic Zn cycling model. Our ensemble of optimisations towards synthetic data with varying kinds of uncertainty shows that deficiencies related to model complexity and the choice of the misfit function generally have a greater impact on the retrieval of model Zn uptake behaviour than does the limitation of data coverage.
Yoshikazu Sasai, Sherwood Lan Smith, Eko Siswanto, Hideharu Sasaki, and Masami Nonaka
Biogeosciences, 19, 4865–4882, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4865-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4865-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We have investigated the adaptive response of phytoplankton growth to changing light, nutrients, and temperature over the North Pacific using two physical-biological models. We compare modeled chlorophyll and primary production from an inflexible control model (InFlexPFT), which assumes fixed carbon (C):nitrogen (N):chlorophyll (Chl) ratios, to a recently developed flexible phytoplankton functional type model (FlexPFT), which incorporates photoacclimation and variable C:N:Chl ratios.
Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4431–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Natasha René van Horsten, Hélène Planquette, Géraldine Sarthou, Thomas James Ryan-Keogh, Nolwenn Lemaitre, Thato Nicholas Mtshali, Alakendra Roychoudhury, and Eva Bucciarelli
Biogeosciences, 19, 3209–3224, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3209-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The remineralisation proxy, barite, was measured along 30°E in the southern Indian Ocean during early austral winter. To our knowledge this is the first reported Southern Ocean winter study. Concentrations throughout the water column were comparable to observations during spring to autumn. By linking satellite primary production to this proxy a possible annual timescale is proposed. These findings also suggest possible carbon remineralisation from satellite data on a basin scale.
Zhibo Shao and Ya-Wei Luo
Biogeosciences, 19, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs (NCDs) may be an important player in fixing N2 in the ocean. By conducting meta-analyses, we found that a representative marine NCD phylotype, Gamma A, tends to inhabit ocean environments with high productivity, low iron concentration and high light intensity. It also appears to be more abundant inside cyclonic eddies. Our study suggests a niche differentiation of NCDs from cyanobacterial diazotrophs as the latter prefers low-productivity and high-iron oceans.
Coraline Leseurre, Claire Lo Monaco, Gilles Reverdin, Nicolas Metzl, Jonathan Fin, Claude Mignon, and Léa Benito
Biogeosciences, 19, 2599–2625, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal trends of fugacity of CO2 (fCO2), total alkalinity (AT), total carbon (CT) and pH in surface waters are investigated in different domains of the southern Indian Ocean (45°S–57°S) from ongoing and station observations regularly conducted in summer over the period 1998–2019. The fCO2 increase and pH decrease are mainly driven by anthropogenic CO2 estimated just below the summer mixed layer, as well as by a warming south of the polar front or in the fertilized waters near Kerguelen Island.
Priscilla Le Mézo, Jérôme Guiet, Kim Scherrer, Daniele Bianchi, and Eric Galbraith
Biogeosciences, 19, 2537–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the role of commercially targeted fish biomass in the cycling of three important nutrients (N, P, and Fe), relative to nutrients otherwise available in water and to nutrients required by primary producers, and the impact of fishing. We use a model of commercially targeted fish biomass constrained by fish catch and stock assessment data to assess the contributions of fish at the global scale, at the time of the global peak catch and prior to industrial fishing.
Rebecca Chmiel, Nathan Lanning, Allison Laubach, Jong-Mi Lee, Jessica Fitzsimmons, Mariko Hatta, William Jenkins, Phoebe Lam, Matthew McIlvin, Alessandro Tagliabue, and Mak Saito
Biogeosciences, 19, 2365–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2365-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Dissolved cobalt is present in trace amounts in seawater and is a necessary nutrient for marine microbes. On a transect from the Alaskan coast to Tahiti, we measured seawater concentrations of dissolved cobalt. Here, we describe several interesting features of the Pacific cobalt cycle including cobalt sources along the Alaskan coast and Hawaiian vents, deep-ocean particle formation, cobalt activity in low-oxygen regions, and how our samples compare to a global biogeochemical model’s predictions.
Nicolas Metzl, Claire Lo Monaco, Coraline Leseurre, Céline Ridame, Jonathan Fin, Claude Mignon, Marion Gehlen, and Thi Tuyet Trang Chau
Biogeosciences, 19, 1451–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During an oceanographic cruise conducted in January 2020 in the south-western Indian Ocean, we observed very low CO2 concentrations associated with a strong phytoplankton bloom that occurred south-east of Madagascar. This biological event led to a strong regional CO2 ocean sink not previously observed.
Darren R. Clark, Andrew P. Rees, Charissa M. Ferrera, Lisa Al-Moosawi, Paul J. Somerfield, Carolyn Harris, Graham D. Quartly, Stephen Goult, Glen Tarran, and Gennadi Lessin
Biogeosciences, 19, 1355–1376, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1355-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of microbial processes were made in the sunlit open ocean during a research cruise (AMT19) between the UK and Chile. These help us to understand how microbial communities maintain the function of remote ecosystems. We find that the nitrogen cycling microbes which produce nitrite respond to changes in the environment. Our insights will aid the development of models that aim to replicate and ultimately project how marine environments may respond to ongoing climate change.
Martí Galí, Marcus Falls, Hervé Claustre, Olivier Aumont, and Raffaele Bernardello
Biogeosciences, 19, 1245–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Part of the organic matter produced by plankton in the upper ocean is exported to the deep ocean. This process, known as the biological carbon pump, is key for the regulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide and global climate. However, the dynamics of organic particles below the upper ocean layer are not well understood. Here we compared the measurements acquired by autonomous robots in the top 1000 m of the ocean to a numerical model, which can help improve future climate projections.
Marie Barbieux, Julia Uitz, Alexandre Mignot, Collin Roesler, Hervé Claustre, Bernard Gentili, Vincent Taillandier, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Hubert Loisel, Antoine Poteau, Edouard Leymarie, Christophe Penkerc'h, Catherine Schmechtig, and Annick Bricaud
Biogeosciences, 19, 1165–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses marine biological production in two Mediterranean systems representative of vast desert-like (oligotrophic) areas encountered in the global ocean. We use a novel approach based on non-intrusive high-frequency in situ measurements by two profiling robots, the BioGeoChemical-Argo (BGC-Argo) floats. Our results indicate substantial yet variable production rates and contribution to the whole water column of the subsurface layer, typically considered steady and non-productive.
Filippa Fransner, Friederike Fröb, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Siv K. Lauvset, Ingunn Skjelvan, Emil Jeansson, Abdirahman Omar, Melissa Chierici, Elizabeth Jones, Agneta Fransson, Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Truls Johannessen, and Are Olsen
Biogeosciences, 19, 979–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidification, a direct consequence of the CO2 release by human activities, is a serious threat to marine ecosystems. In this study, we conduct a detailed investigation of the acidification of the Nordic Seas, from 1850 to 2100, by using a large set of samples taken during research cruises together with numerical model simulations. We estimate the effects of changes in different environmental factors on the rate of acidification and its potential effects on cold-water corals.
Guorong Zhong, Xuegang Li, Jinming Song, Baoxiao Qu, Fan Wang, Yanjun Wang, Bin Zhang, Xiaoxia Sun, Wuchang Zhang, Zhenyan Wang, Jun Ma, Huamao Yuan, and Liqin Duan
Biogeosciences, 19, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A predictor selection algorithm was constructed to decrease the predicting error in the surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) mapping by finding better combinations of pCO2 predictors in different regions. Compared with previous research using the same combination of predictors in all regions, using different predictors selected by the algorithm in different regions can effectively decrease pCO2 predicting errors.
Cited articles
Anderson, J. L., Balaji., V., Broccoli, A. J., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L.,
Dixon, K. W., Donner, L. J., Dunne, K. A., Freidenreich, S. M., Garner,
S. T., Gudgel, R. G., Gordon, C. T., Held, I. M., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz,
L. W., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Kushner, P. J., Langenhost, A. R.,
Cheung, L. N., Liang, Z., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Nath, M. J.,
Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis,
J. J., Soden, B. J., Stern, W. F., Thompson, L. A., Wilson, R. J.,
Wittenberg, A. T., and Wyman, B. L.: The New GFDL Global Atmosphere and
Land Model AM2–LM2: Evaluation with Prescribed SST Simulations, J.
Clim., 17, 4641–4673, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3223.1, 2004. a
Andrade, J. and Estévez-Pérez, M.: Statistical comparison of the slopes of
two regression lines: A tutorial, Anal. Chim. Acta, 838, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aca.2014.04.057, 2014. a, b
Bakker, D. C. E., Pfeil, B., O'Brien, K. M., Currie, K. I., Jones,
S. D., Landa, C. S., Lauvset, S. K., Metzl, N., Munro, D. R.,
Nakaoka, S.-I., Olsen, A., Pierrot, D., Saito, S., Smith, K.,
Sweeney, C., Takahashi, T., Wada, C., Wanninkhof, R., Alin, S. R.,
Becker, M., Bellerby, R. G. J., Borges, A. V., Boutin, J., Bozec,
Y., Burger, E., Cai, W.-J., Castle, R. D., Cosca, C. E.,
DeGrandpre, M. D., Donnelly, M., Eischeid, G., Feely, R. A.,
Gkritzalis, T., González-Dávila, M., Goyet, C., Guillot, A.,
Hardman-Mountford, N. J., Hauck, J., Hoppema, M., Humphreys, M. P.,
Hunt, C. W., Ibánhez, J. S. P., Ichikawa, T., Ishii, M.,
Juranek, L. W., Kitidis, V., Körtzinger, A., Koffi, U. K.,
Kozyr, A., Kuwata, A., Lefèvre, N., Lo Monaco, C., Manke, A.,
Marrec, P., Mathis, J. T., Millero, F. J., Monacci, N., Monteiro,
P. M. S., Murata, A., Newberger, T., Nojiri, Y., Nonaka, I., Omar,
A. M., Ono, T., Padín, X. A., Rehder, G., Rutgersson, A.,
Sabine, C. L., Salisbury, J., Santana-Casiano, J. M., Sasano, D.,
Schuster, U., Sieger, R., Skjelvan, I., Steinhoff, T., Sullivan,
K., Sutherland, S. C., Sutton, A., Tadokoro, K., Telszewski, M.,
Thomas, H., Tilbrook, B., van Heuven, S., Vandemark, D., Wallace,
D. W., and Woosley, R.: Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) V4, PANGAEA,
https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.866856, 2016. a
Bednaršek, N., Tarling, G. A., Bakker, D. C. E., Fielding, S., Jones,
E. M., Venables, H. J., Ward, P., Kuzirian, A., Lézé, B., Feely,
R. A., and Murphy, E. J.: Extensive dissolution of live pteropods in the
Southern Ocean, Nat. Geosci., 5, 881–885, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1635, 2012. a
Bednaršek, N., Feely, R. A., Reum, J. C. P., Peterson, B., Menkel, J.,
Alin, S. R., and Hales, B.: Limacina helicina shell dissolution as
an indicator of declining habitat suitability owing to ocean acidification in
the California Current Ecosystem, P. R. Soc. B, 281, 20140,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.0123, 2014. a
Bindoff, N. L., Cheung, W. W. L., Kairo, J. G., Arístegui, J., Guinder, V. A., Hallberg, R., Hilmi, N., Jiao, N., Karim, M. S., Levin, L., O'Donoghue, S., Purca Cuicapusa, S. R., Rinkevich, B., Suga, T., Tagliabue, A., and Williamson, P.: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., in press, 2020. a, b
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013. a, b
Britton, D., Cornwall, C. E., Revill, A. T., Hurd, C. L., and Johnson, C. R.:
Ocean acidification reverses the positive effects of seawater pH
fluctuations on growth and photosynthesis of the habitat-forming kelp,
Ecklonia radiata, Sci. Rep., 6, 26036, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep26036, 2016. a
Burger, F. A.: Data used for figures and tables in “Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2”, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4032577, 2020. a
Caldeira, K. and Wickett, M. E.: Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH, Nature,
425, 365–365, https://doi.org/10.1038/425365a, 2003. a, b
Carter, B. R., Frölicher, T. L., Dunne, J. P., Rodgers, K. B., Slater, R. D.,
and Sarmiento, J. L.: When can ocean acidification impacts be detected from
decadal alkalinity measurements?, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 595–612,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005308, 2016. a
Carter, B. R., Feely, R. A., Williams, N. L., Dickson, A. G., Fong, M. B., and
Takeshita, Y.: Updated methods for global locally interpolated estimation of
alkalinity, pH, and nitrate, Limnol. Oceanogr. Method., 16, 119–131,
https://doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10232, 2018. a
Cheung, W. W. L. and Frölicher, T. L.: Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate
change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific, Sci. Rep.,
10, 6678, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63650-z, 2020. a
Collins, M., Sutherland, M., Bouwer, L., Cheong, S.-M., Frölicher, T., Jacot Des Combes, H., Koll Roxy, M., Losada, I., McInnes, K., Ratter, B., Rivera-Arriaga, E., Susanto, R. D., Swingedouw, D., and Tibig, L.: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risk, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., in press, 2020. a
Cornwall, C. E., Comeau, S., DeCarlo, T. M., Larcombe, E., Moore, B., Giltrow,
K., Puerzer, F., D'Alexis, Q., and McCulloch, M. T.: A coralline alga gains
tolerance to ocean acidification over multiple generations of exposure, Nat.
Clim. Change, 10, 143–146, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0681-8, 2020. a
Dickson, A. and Millero, F.: A comparison of the equilibrium constants for the
dissociation of carbonic acid in seawater media, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. A, 34, 1733–1743, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(87)90021-5, 1987. a
Dickson, A. and Riley, J.: The effect of analytical error on the evaluation of
the components of the aquatic carbon-dioxide system, Mar. Chem., 6, 77–85,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4203(78)90008-7, 1978. a
Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A., and Kleypas, J. A.: Ocean
Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci.,
1, 169–192, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834, 2009. a, b
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Adcroft, A. J., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W.,
Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Cooke, W., Dunne, K. A., Harrison, M. J.,
Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Phillipps, P. J., Sentman,
L. T., Samuels, B. L., Spelman, M. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and
Zadeh, N.: GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System
Models, Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation
Characteristics, J. Clim., 25, 6646–6665, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00560.1,
2012. a
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Krasting, J. P.,
Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Sentman, L. T., Adcroft, A. J., Cooke, W.,
Dunne, K. A., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M. J., Levy, H.,
Wittenberg, A. T., Phillips, P. J., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL’s ESM2 Global
Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models, Part II: Carbon System
Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics, J. Clim., 26,
2247–2267, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00150.1, 2013. a, b
Fassbender, A. J., Rodgers, K. B., Palevsky, H. I., and Sabine, C. L.: Seasonal
Asymmetry in the Evolution of Surface Ocean pCO2 and pH Thermodynamic
Drivers and the Influence on Sea-Air CO2 Flux, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
32, 1476–1497, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GB005855, 2018. a, b
Feely, R., Chris, S., Hernandez-Ayon, J., Ianson, D., and Hales, B.: Evidence
for Upwelling of Corrosive “Acidified” Water onto the Continental Shelf,
Science, 320, 1490–1492, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155676, 2008. a
Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.: Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence
of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 5,
560–564, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2617, 2015. a
Form, A. U. and Riebesell, U.: Acclimation to ocean acidification during
long-term CO2 exposure in the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa, Glob.
Change Biol., 18, 843–853, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02583.x, 2012. a
Friedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J.,
Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., Le Quéré, C., Bakker,
D. C. E., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Anthoni, P., Barbero,
L., Bastos, A., Bastrikov, V., Becker, M., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Chandra,
N., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Currie, K. I., Feely, R. A., Gehlen, M.,
Gilfillan, D., Gkritzalis, T., Goll, D. S., Gruber, N., Gutekunst, S.,
Harris, I., Haverd, V., Houghton, R. A., Hurtt, G., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K.,
Joetzjer, E., Kaplan, J. O., Kato, E., Klein Goldewijk, K., Korsbakken,
J. I., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A.,
Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Marland, G., McGuire, P. C., Melton, J. R.,
Metzl, N., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Neill, C., Omar,
A. M., Ono, T., Peregon, A., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Resplandy,
L., Robertson, E., Rödenbeck, C., Séférian, R., Schwinger, J., Smith,
N., Tans, P. P., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tubiello, F. N., van der Werf,
G. R., Wiltshire, A. J., and Zaehle, S.: Global Carbon Budget 2019, Earth
Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019. a
Frölicher, T. L., Sarmiento, J. L., Paynter, D. J., Dunne, J. P., Krasting,
J. P., and Winton, M.: Dominance of the Southern Ocean in Anthropogenic
Carbon and Heat Uptake in CMIP5 Models, J. Clim., 28, 862–886,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00117.1, 2015. a
Frölicher, T. L., Rodgers, K. B., Stock, C. A., and Cheung, W. W. L.: Sources
of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem
stressors, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 1224–1243,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005338, 2016. a, b
Frölicher, T. L., Fischer, E. M., and Gruber, N.: Marine heatwaves under
global warming, Nature, 560, 360–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9, 2018. a, b, c, d
Frölicher, T. L., Ramseyer, L., Raible, C. C., Rodgers, K. B., and Dunne, J.:
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers, Biogeosciences, 17,
2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020. a, b
Gallego, M. A., Timmermann, A., Friedrich, T., and Zeebe, R. E.: Drivers of
future seasonal cycle changes in oceanic pCO2, Biogeosciences, 15,
5315–5327, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5315-2018, 2018. a, b
Gattuso, J.-P. and Buddemeier, R. W.: Calcification and CO2, Nature, 407,
311–313, https://doi.org/10.1038/35030280, 2000. a
Gehlen, M., Gruber, N., Gangstro, R., Bopp, L., and Oschlies, A.:
Biogeochemical Consequences of Ocean Acidification and Feedback to the Earth
System, chap. 12, in: Ocean Acidification, edited by: Gattuso, J.-P. and Hansson, L.,
Oxford University Press, 230–248, 2012. a
Good, S. A., Martin, M. J., and Rayner, N. A.: EN4: Quality controlled ocean
temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with
uncertainty estimates, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 118, 6704–6716,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009067, 2013. a
Gray, A. R., Johnson, K. S., Bushinsky, S. M., Riser, S. C., Russell, J. L.,
Talley, L. D., Wanninkhof, R., Williams, N. L., and Sarmiento, J. L.:
Autonomous Biogeochemical Floats Detect Significant Carbon Dioxide Outgassing
in the High-Latitude Southern Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 9049–9057,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078013, 2018. a
Griffies, S.: ELEMENTS OF MOM4p1, GFDL ocean group technical report no.6,
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University Forrestal
Campus, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540-6649, 2009. a
Gruber, N.: Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry
under global change, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 369, 1980–1996,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0003, 2011. a
Hall-Spencer, J. M., Rodolfo-Metalpa, R., Martin, S., Ransome, E., Fine, M.,
Turner, S. M., Rowley, S. J., Tedesco, D., and Buia, M.-C.: Volcanic carbon
dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acidification, Nature, 454,
96–99, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07051, 2008. a
Hartmann, D., Klein Tank, A., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L., Brönnimann, S.,
Charabi, Y., Dentener, F., Dlugokencky, E., Easterling, D., Kaplan, A.,
Soden, B., Thorne, P., Wild, M., and Zhai, P.: Observations: Atmosphere and
Surface Supplementary Material, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013. a
Hauck, J. and Völker, C.: Rising atmospheric CO2 leads to large impact
of biology on Southern Ocean CO2 uptake via changes of the Revelle
factor, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1459–1464, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063070,
2015. a
Hauri, C., Gruber, N., McDonnell, A. M. P., and Vogt, M.: The intensity,
duration, and severity of low aragonite saturation state events on the
California continental shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3424–3428,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50618, 2013. a, b
Hofmann, G. E., Smith, J. E., Johnson, K. S., Send, U., Levin, L. A., Micheli,
F., Paytan, A., Price, N. N., Peterson, B., Takeshita, Y., Matson, P. G.,
Crook, E. D., Kroeker, K. J., Gambi, M. C., Rivest, E. B., Frieder, C. A.,
Yu, P. C., and Martz, T. R.: High-Frequency Dynamics of Ocean pH: A
Multi-Ecosystem Comparison, PloS One, 6, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0028983, 2011. a, b, c, d, e, f
Jacox, M. G.: Marine heatwaves in a changing climate, Nature, 571, 485–487,
https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-02196-1, 2019. a
Joint, I., Doney, S. C., and Karl, D. M.: Will ocean acidification affect
marine microbes?, ISME J., 5, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/ismej.2010.79, 2011. a, b
Jones, C. D., Arora, V., Friedlingstein, P., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Dunne, J.,
Graven, H., Hoffman, F., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Jung, M., Kawamiya, M.,
Koven, C., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Randerson, J. T., and Zaehle, S.:
C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project:
experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016. a
Keller, K. M., Joos, F., and Raible, C. C.: Time of emergence of trends in
ocean biogeochemistry, Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014. a
Kroeker, K. J., Micheli, F., Gambi, M. C., and Martz, T. R.: Divergent
ecosystem responses within a benthic marine community to ocean acidification,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 14515–14520,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1107789108, 2011. a
Kroeker, K. J., Kordas, R. L., Crim, R., Hendriks, I. E., Ramajo, L., Singh,
G. S., Duarte, C. M., and Gattuso, J.-P.: Impacts of ocean acidification on
marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming,
Glob. Change Biol., 19, 1884–1896, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12179, 2013. a
Kroeker, K. J., Bell, L. E., Donham, E. M., Hoshijima, U., Lummis, S., Toy,
J. A., and Willis-Norton, E.: Ecological change in dynamic environments:
Accounting for temporal environmental variability in studies of ocean change
biology, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 54–67, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14868, 2020. a
Kwiatkowski, L., Gaylord, B., Hill, T., Hosfelt, J., Kroeker, K. J., Nebuchina,
Y., Ninokawa, A., Russell, A. D., Rivest, E. B., Sesboüé, M., and
Caldeira, K.: Nighttime dissolution in a temperate coastal ocean ecosystem
increases under acidification, Sci. Rep., 6, 22984,
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep22984, 2016. a
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.: Decadal variations and
trends of the global ocean carbon sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30,
1396–1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016. a, b
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E., Stemmler, I., and Six,
K. D.: Strengthening seasonal marine CO2 variations due to increasing
atmospheric CO2, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 146–150,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0057-x, 2018. a, b, c, d
Lauvset, S. K., Carter, B. R., Perez, F. F., Jiang, L.-Q., Feely, R. A., Velo,
A., and Olsen, A.: Processes Driving Global Interior Ocean pH Distribution,
Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34, e2019GB006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006229,
2020. a
Leinweber, A. and Gruber, N.: Variability and trends of ocean acidification in
the Southern California Current System: A time series from Santa Monica Bay,
J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 118, 3622–3633, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20259, 2013. a
McNeil, B. I. and Matear, R. J.: Southern Ocean acidification: A tipping point
at 450-ppm atmospheric CO2, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105,
18860–18864, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806318105, 2008. a
McNeil, B. I. and Sasse, T. P.: Future ocean hypercapnia driven by
anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle, Nature, 529,
383–386, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16156, 2016. a, b
Mehrbach, C., Culberson, C. H., Hawley, J. E., and Pytkowicx, R. M.:
MEASUREMENT OF THE APPARENT DISSOCIATION CONSTANTS OF CARBONIC ACID IN
SEAWATER AT ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE 1, Limnol. Oceanogr., 18, 897–907,
https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1973.18.6.0897, 1973. a
Morse, J. and Mackenzie, F.: Geochemistry of Sedimentary Carbonates, Elsevier,
Amsterdam, 1990. a
Najjar, R. and Orr, J.: Design of OCMIP-2 simulations of chlorofluorocarbons,
the solubility pump and common biogeochemistry, internal ocmip report,
LSCE/CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France,
1998. a
Oliver, E. C. J., Donat, M. G., Burrows, M. T., Moore, P. J., Smale, D. A.,
Alexander, L. V., Benthuysen, J. A., Feng, M., Sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A. J.,
Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Scannell, H. A., Straub, S. C.,
and Wernberg, T.: Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past
century, Nat. Commun., 9, 1324, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9, 2018. a
Oliver, E. C. J., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Sen Gupta, A., Alexander,
L. V., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Benthuysen, J. A., Hobday, A. J.,
Holbrook, N. J., Moore, P. J., Thomsen, M. S., Wernberg, T., and Smale,
D. A.: Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for
Ecological Impact, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00734,
2019. a, b, c
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B. C., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A. K., Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., CifuentesJara, M., DeConto, R. M., Ghosh, T., Hay, J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., in press, 2020. a
Orr, J. C. and Epitalon, J.-M.: Improved routines to model the ocean carbonate
system: mocsy 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 485–499,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-485-2015, 2015. a, b
Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A.,
Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Key, R. M., Lindsay, K.,
Maier-Reimer, E., Matear, R., Monfray, P., Mouchet, A., Najjar, R. G.,
Plattner, G.-K., Rodgers, K. B., Sabine, C. L., Sarmiento, J. L., Schlitzer,
R., Slater, R. D., Totterdell, I. J., Weirig, M.-F., Yamanaka, Y., and Yool,
A.: Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its
impact on calcifying organisms, Nature, 437, 681–686,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04095, 2005. a, b, c
Orr, J. C., Epitalon, J.-M., Dickson, A. G., and Gattuso, J.-P.: Routine
uncertainty propagation for the marine carbon dioxide system, Mar. Chem.,
207, 84–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2018.10.006, 2018. a
Palter, J. B., Frölicher, T. L., Paynter, D., and John, J. G.: Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 817–828, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018, 2018. a
Resplandy, L., Séférian, R., and Bopp, L.: Natural variability of CO2
and O2 fluxes: What can we learn from centuries-long climate models
simulations?, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 120, 384–404,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010463, 2015. a
Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann,
G., Nakicenovic, N., and Rafaj, P.: RCP8.5 – A scenario of comparatively
high greenhouse gas emissions, Clim. Change, 109, 33–57,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y, 2011. a
Riebesell, U., Zondervan, I., Rost, B., Tortell, P. D., Zeebe, R. E., and
Morel, F. M. M.: Reduced calcification of marine plankton in response to
increased atmospheric CO2, Nature, 407, 364–367,
https://doi.org/10.1038/35030078, 2000. a
Rivest, E. B., Comeau, S., and Cornwall, C. E.: The Role of Natural Variability
in Shaping the Response of Coral Reef Organisms to Climate Change, Curr.
Clim. Change Rep., 3, 271–281, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0082-x, 2017. a
Rodgers, K. B., Sarmiento, J. L., Aumont, O., Crevoisier, C.,
de Boyer Montégut, C., and Metzl, N.: A wintertime uptake window for
anthropogenic CO2 in the North Pacific, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22,
1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002920, 2008. a
Sarmiento, J. and Gruber, N.: Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics, Princeton
University Press, 2006. a
Seneviratne, S., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C., Kanae, S., Kossin,
J., Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M., Sorteberg,
A., Vera, C., and Zhang, X.: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on
the natural physical environment, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, A Special Report of Working
Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
2012. a, b
Sentman, L. T., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., and Malyshev, S.: Time Scales
of Terrestrial Carbon Response Related to Land-Use Application: Implications
for Initializing an Earth System Model, Earth Interact., 15, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011EI401.1, 2011. a
Shevliakova, E., Pacala, S. W., Malyshev, S., Hurtt, G. C., Milly, P. C. D.,
Caspersen, J. P., Sentman, L. T., Fisk, J. P., Wirth, C., and Crevoisier, C.:
Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: Importance of the
secondary vegetation sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003176, 2009. a
Smale, D. A., Wernberg, T., Oliver, E. C. J., Thomsen, M., Harvey, B. P.,
Straub, S. C., Burrows, M. T., Alexander, L. V., Benthuysen, J. A., Donat,
M. G., Feng, M., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.,
Scannell, H. A., Sen Gupta, A., Payne, B. L., and Moore, P. J.: Marine
heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem
services, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 306–312, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0412-1,
2019. a
Smith, M. D.: An ecological perspective on extreme climatic events: a synthetic
definition and framework to guide future research, J. Ecol., 99, 656–663,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01798.x, 2011. a
Stephenson, D.: Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and
climate events, in: Climate Extremes and Society, edited by: Murnane, R. and
Diaz, H., Cambridge University Press, 11–23, 2008. a
Terhaar, J., Orr, J. C., Ethé, C., Regnier, P., and Bopp, L.: Simulated Arctic
Ocean Response to Doubling of Riverine Carbon and Nutrient Delivery, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 33, 1048–1070, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006200,
2019a. a
Terhaar, J., Orr, J. C., Gehlen, M., Ethé, C., and Bopp, L.: Model
constraints on the anthropogenic carbon budget of the Arctic Ocean,
Biogeosciences, 16, 2343–2367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019,
2019b. a, b
Terhaar, J., Kwiatkowski, L., and Bopp, L.: Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean
acidification in the twenty-first century, Nature, 582, 379–383,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2360-3, 2020. a
Turi, G., Alexander, M., Lovenduski, N. S., Capotondi, A., Scott, J., Stock,
C., Dunne, J., John, J., and Jacox, M.: Response of O2 and pH to ENSO
in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model,
Ocean Sci., 14, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, 2018. a
van Heuven, S., Pierrot, D., Rae, J., Lewis, E., and Wallace, D.: MATLAB
Program Developed for CO2 System Calculations, available at:
http://gts.sourceforge.net/ (last access: 13 February 2019), 2011. a
van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., den Elzen, M. G. J., Kram, T., van Vliet, J.,
Deetman, S., Isaac, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hof, A., Mendoza Beltran, A.,
Oostenrijk, R., and van Ruijven, B.: RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to
keep global mean temperature increase below 2 ∘C, Climatic Change, 109,
95–116, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3, 2011. a
Vogel, M. M., Zscheischler, J., Fischer, E. M., and Seneviratne, S. I.:
Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032070, 2020.
a
Weiss, R.: Carbon dioxide in water and seawater: the solubility of a non-ideal
gas, Mar. Chem., 2, 203–215,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4203(74)90015-2, 1974. a
Wernberg, T., Bennett, S., Babcock, R. C., de Bettignies, T., Cure, K.,
Depczynski, M., Dufois, F., Fromont, J., Fulton, C. J., Hovey, R. K., Harvey,
E. S., Holmes, T. H., Kendrick, G. A., Radford, B., Santana-Garcon, J.,
Saunders, B. J., Smale, D. A., Thomsen, M. S., Tuckett, C. A., Tuya, F.,
Vanderklift, M. A., and Wilson, S.: Climate-driven regime shift of a
temperate marine ecosystem, Science, 353, 169–172,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8745, 2016. a
Weyer, N. M. (Ed.): Annex I: Glossary, in: Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P., 677–701, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2019. a
Winton, M.: A Reformulated Three-Layer Sea Ice Model, J. Atmos. Ocean.
Technol., 17, 525–531,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2000)017<0525:ARTLSI>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Wittenberg, A. T., Rosati, A., Delworth, T. L., Vecchi, G. A., and Zeng, F.:
ENSO Modulation: Is It Decadally Predictable?, J. Clim., 27, 2667–2681,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00577.1, 2014. a, b
Zscheischler, J. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Dependence of drivers affects risks
associated with compound events, Sci. Adv., 3, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700263,
2017. a
Short summary
Ensemble simulations of an Earth system model reveal that ocean acidity extremes have increased in the past few decades and are projected to increase further in terms of frequency, intensity, duration, and volume extent. The increase is not only caused by the long-term ocean acidification due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, but also due to changes in short-term variability. The increase in ocean acidity extremes may enhance the risk of detrimental impacts on marine organisms.
Ensemble simulations of an Earth system model reveal that ocean acidity extremes have increased...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint