Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 04 Jun 2021
Does drought advance the onset of autumn leaf senescence in temperate deciduous forest trees?
Bertold Mariën
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Department of Biology, University of
Antwerp, 2160 Wilrijk, Belgium
Inge Dox
PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Department of Biology, University of
Antwerp, 2160 Wilrijk, Belgium
Hans J. De Boeck
PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Department of Biology, University of
Antwerp, 2160 Wilrijk, Belgium
Patrick Willems
Hydraulics Division, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, 3001 Leuven,
Belgium
Sebastien Leys
PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Department of Biology, University of
Antwerp, 2160 Wilrijk, Belgium
Dimitri Papadimitriou
IDLab (Internet Data Lab), Department of Mathematics and Computer
Science, University of Antwerp, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium
Matteo Campioli
PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Department of Biology, University of
Antwerp, 2160 Wilrijk, Belgium
Related authors
No articles found.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, and Jos Van Orshoven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 395–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As land use influences hydrological processes (e.g., forests have a high water retention and infiltration capacity), it also impacts floods downstream in the river system. This paper demonstrates an approach quantifying the impact of land use changes on economic flood damages: damages in an initial situation are quantified and compared to damages of simulated floods associated with a land use change scenario. This approach can be used as an explorative tool in sustainable flood risk management.
Hossein Tabari, Santiago Mendoza Paz, Daan Buekenhout, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3493–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021, 2021
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Benjamin Campforts, Veerle Vanacker, Frédéric Herman, Matthias Vanmaercke, Wolfgang Schwanghart, Gustavo E. Tenorio, Patrick Willems, and Gerard Govers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 447–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-447-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this contribution, we explore the spatial determinants of bedrock river incision in the tropical Andes. The model results illustrate the problem of confounding between climatic and lithological variables, such as rock strength. Incorporating rock strength explicitly into river incision models strongly improves the explanatory power of all tested models and enables us to clarify the role of rainfall variability in controlling river incision rates.
Els Van Uytven, Jan De Niel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2671–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa, M. Moudud Hasan, Ajoy Kumar Saha, Rahena Parvin Rannu, Els Van Uytven, Patrick Willems, and Marijke Huysmans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2279–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the effect of conceptual hydro(geo)logical model (CHM) structure, climate change and groundwater abstraction on future groundwater-level prediction uncertainty. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, groundwater level is predicted to decline quickly. Groundwater abstraction in NW Bangladesh should decrease by 60 % to ensure sustainable use. Abstraction scenarios are the dominant uncertainty source, followed by CHM uncertainty and climate model uncertainty.
Jan De Niel and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-871-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-871-2019, 2019
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Edouard Goudenhoofdt, Laurent Delobbe, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5385–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5385-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5385-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the characteristics of extreme precipitation is useful for flood management applications like sewer system design. The potential of a 12-year high-quality weather radar precipitation dataset is investigated by comparison with rain gauges. Despite known limitations, a good agreement is found between the radar and the rain gauges. Using the radar data allow us to reduce the uncertainty of the extreme value analysis, especially for short duration extremes related to thunderstorms.
Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Susana Ochoa-Rodriguez, Patrick Willems, Abdellah Ichiba, Li-Pen Wang, Rui Pina, Johan Van Assel, Guendalina Bruni, Damian Murla Tuyls, and Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2361–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2361-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2361-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Data from 10 urban or peri-urban catchments located in five EU countries are used to analyze the imperviousness distribution and sewer network geometry. Consistent scale invariant features are retrieved for both (fractal dimensions can be defined), which enables to define a level of urbanization. Imperviousness representation in operational model is also found to exhibit scale-invariant features (even multifractality). The research was carried out as part of the UE INTERREG IV RainGain project.
Tanja de Boer-Euser, Laurène Bouaziz, Jan De Niel, Claudia Brauer, Benjamin Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Fabrizio Fenicia, Benjamin Grelier, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Hubert Savenije, Guillaume Thirel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 423–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the rainfall–runoff models of eight international research groups were compared for a set of subcatchments of the Meuse basin to investigate the influence of certain model components on the modelled discharge. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics, clear differences could be observed for specific events. The differences during drier conditions could indeed be linked to differences in model structures.
Hossein Tabari, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Sajjad Saeed, Erwan Brisson, Nicole Van Lipzig, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3843–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, 2016
Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Mario Herrero, Petr Havlik, Matteo Campioli, Xianzhou Zhang, Yongfei Bai, Nicolas Viovy, Joanna Joiner, Xuhui Wang, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Shilong Piao, Tao Wang, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Jean-Francois Soussana, Anna Peregon, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Biogeosciences, 13, 3757–3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We derived the global maps of grassland management intensity of 1901–2012, including the minimum area of managed grassland with fraction of mown/grazed part. These maps, to our knowledge for the first time, provide global, time-dependent information for drawing up global estimates of management impact on biomass production and yields and for global vegetation models to enable simulations of carbon stocks and GHG budgets beyond simple tuning of grassland productivities to account for management.
Vincent Wolfs, Quan Tran Quoc, and Patrick Willems
Proc. IAHS, 373, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Water management is constantly evolving. Trends, such as population growth, urbanization and climate change, pose new challenges to water management. We developed a new and flexible modelling approach to generate very fast models of catchment hydrology, rivers and sewer systems that can be tailored to numerous applications in water management. To illustrate the developed framework, a case study of integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling for the Grote Nete catchment in Belgium is elaborated.
C. Onyutha and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12167-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12167-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate the possible change in catchment behavior, which may interfere with the flow-rainfall relationship, three rainfall-runoff models were applied to the main catchments of the Nile Basin in Africa based on inputs covering the period from 1940 to 2003. There was close agreement between the changes in the observed and simulated overland flow from all the models. Thus, change in catchment behavior due to anthropogenic influence in the Nile basin over the selected time period was minimal.
L.-P. Wang, S. Ochoa-Rodríguez, C. Onof, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4001–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4001-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4001-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology is proposed in this paper, focusing on improving the applicability of the operational weather radar data to urban hydrology with rain gauge data. The proposed methodology employed a simple yet effective technique to extract additional information (called local singularity structure) from radar data, which was generally ignored in related works. The associated improvement can be particularly seen in capturing storm peak magnitudes, which is critical for urban applications.
K. Naudts, J. Ryder, M. J. McGrath, J. Otto, Y. Chen, A. Valade, V. Bellasen, G. Berhongaray, G. Bönisch, M. Campioli, J. Ghattas, T. De Groote, V. Haverd, J. Kattge, N. MacBean, F. Maignan, P. Merilä, J. Penuelas, P. Peylin, B. Pinty, H. Pretzsch, E. D. Schulze, D. Solyga, N. Vuichard, Y. Yan, and S. Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2035–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2035-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2035-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the potential of forest management to mitigate climate change, none of today's predictions of future climate accounts for the impact of forest management. To address this gap in modelling capability, we developed and parametrised a land-surface model to simulate biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management. Comparison of model output against data showed an increased model performance in reproducing large-scale spatial patterns and inter-annual variability over Europe.
C. Onyutha and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2227–2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin was found linked to the large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions. This finding is vital for a number of water management and planning aspects. To give just one example, it may help in obtaining improved quantiles for flood or drought/water scarcity risk management. This is especially important under conditions of (1) questionable data quality, and (2) data scarcity. These conditions are typical of the Nile Basin and inevitably need to be addressed.
M. A. Sunyer, Y. Hundecha, D. Lawrence, H. Madsen, P. Willems, M. Martinkova, K. Vormoor, G. Bürger, M. Hanel, J. Kriaučiūnienė, A. Loukas, M. Osuch, and I. Yücel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, 2015
A. Ochoa, L. Pineda, P. Crespo, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3179–3193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3179-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3179-2014, 2014
D. Vrebos, T. Vansteenkiste, J. Staes, P. Willems, and P. Meire
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1119–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1119-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1119-2014, 2014
D. E. Mora, L. Campozano, F. Cisneros, G. Wyseure, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 631–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-631-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-631-2014, 2014
M. T. Taye and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-7857-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-7857-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by Afforestation and an equivalent reduction in Fossil fuel emissions
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitation by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from northern soils
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
Acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient and biomass declines in a warming Mediterranean Sea
Ocean alkalinity enhancement – avoiding runaway CaCO3 precipitation during quick and hydrated lime dissolution
Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models
Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data
Contrasting responses of phytoplankton productivity between coastal and offshore surface waters in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to short-term seawater acidification
Modeling interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharges in the Kapuas River delta
The application of dendrometers to alpine dwarf shrubs – a case study to investigate stem growth responses to environmental conditions
Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
Evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of blue intensity on multiple conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand
Anthropogenic CO2-mediated freshwater acidification limits survival, calcification, metabolism, and behaviour in stress-tolerant freshwater crustaceans
Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes
On the influence of erect shrubs on the irradiance profile in snow
Tolerance of tropical marine microphytobenthos exposed to elevated irradiance and temperature
Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe
Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century
Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2
Effects of elevated CO2 and extreme climatic events on forage quality and in vitro rumen fermentation in permanent grassland
Cushion bog plant community responses to passive warming in southern Patagonia
Blue carbon stocks and exchanges along the California coast
Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming
Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model
Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks in CMIP6 models: contributions from different basins
Sensitivity of 21st-century projected ocean new production changes to idealized biogeochemical model structure
Ocean carbon uptake under aggressive emission mitigation
Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration
Wetter environment and increased grazing reduced the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016
Physiological responses of Skeletonema costatum to the interactions of seawater acidification and the combination of photoperiod and temperature
Technical note: Interpreting pH changes
Timing of drought in the growing season and strong legacy effects determine the annual productivity of temperate grasses in a changing climate
Contrasting responses of woody and herbaceous vegetation to altered rainfall characteristics in the Sahel
Reduced growth with increased quotas of particulate organic and inorganic carbon in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi under future ocean climate change conditions
Ocean-related global change alters lipid biomarker production in common marine phytoplankton
Multi-decadal changes in structural complexity following mass coral mortality on a Caribbean reef
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-227, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, both afforestation and reduction in fossil fuel emission should be pursued simultaneously to mitigate climate change and reduce ocean acidification.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-215, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-168, 2022
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings suggest that carbon cycle feedbacks differ under increasing and decreasing atmospheric CO2 levels, and the sign and magnitude of the differences depends on the approach taken to quantify the feedbacks. Our study proposes a more accurate approach for quantifying carbon cycle feedbacks under decreasing CO2 levels and provides insights into the role of carbon cycle feedbacks in determining the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Charly A. Moras, Lennart T. Bach, Tyler Cyronak, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai G. Schulz
Biogeosciences, 19, 3537–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents the first laboratory results of quick and hydrated lime dissolution in natural seawater. These two minerals are of great interest for ocean alkalinity enhancement, a strategy aiming to decrease atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Following the dissolution of these minerals, we identified several hurdles and presented ways to avoid them or completely negate them. Finally, we proceeded to various simulations in today’s oceans to implement the strategy at its highest potential.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil David Hartstein, Aazani Mujahid, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 3131–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deep coastal inlets are important sites for regulating land-based organic pollution before it enters coastal oceans. This study focused on how large climate forces, rainfall, and river flow impact organic loading and oxygen conditions in a coastal inlet in Tasmania. Increases in rainfall were linked to higher organic loading and lower oxygen in basin waters. Finally we observed a significant correlation between the Southern Annular Mode and oxygen concentrations in the system's basin waters.
Guang Gao, Tifeng Wang, Jiazhen Sun, Xin Zhao, Lifang Wang, Xianghui Guo, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 19, 2795–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
After conducting large-scale deck-incubation experiments, we found that seawater acidification (SA) increased primary production (PP) in coastal waters but reduced it in pelagic zones, which is mainly regulated by local pH, light intensity, salinity, and community structure. In future oceans, SA combined with decreased upward transports of nutrients may synergistically reduce PP in pelagic zones.
Joko Sampurno, Valentin Vallaeys, Randy Ardianto, and Emmanuel Hanert
Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first assessment to evaluate the interactions between river discharges, tides, and storm surges and how they can drive compound flooding in the Kapuas River delta. We successfully created a realistic hydrodynamic model whose domain covers the land–sea continuum using a wetting–drying algorithm in a data-scarce environment. We then proposed a new method to delineate compound flooding hazard zones along the river channels based on the maximum water level profiles.
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Alex R. Quijada-Rodriguez, Pou-Long Kuan, Po-Hsuan Sung, Mao-Ting Hsu, Garett J. P. Allen, Pung Pung Hwang, Yung-Che Tseng, and Dirk Weihrauch
Biogeosciences, 18, 6287–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic CO2 is chronically acidifying aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to determine the impact of future freshwater acidification on the physiology and behaviour of an important aquaculture crustacean, Chinese mitten crabs. We report that elevated freshwater CO2 levels lead to impairment of calcification, locomotor behaviour, and survival and reduced metabolism in this species. Results suggest that present-day calcifying invertebrates could be heavily affected by freshwater acidification.
Junrong Zha and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 18, 6245–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study incorporated moss into an extant biogeochemistry model to simulate the role of moss in carbon dynamics in the Arctic. The interactions between higher plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients are considered in our study. We found that, compared with the previous model without moss, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last century and this century.
Maria Belke-Brea, Florent Domine, Ghislain Picard, Mathieu Barrere, and Laurent Arnaud
Biogeosciences, 18, 5851–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Expanding shrubs in the Arctic change snowpacks into a mix of snow, impurities and buried branches. Snow is a translucent medium into which light penetrates and gets partly absorbed by branches or impurities. Measurements of light attenuation in snow in Northern Quebec, Canada, showed (1) black-carbon-dominated light attenuation in snowpacks without shrubs and (2) buried branches influence radiation attenuation in snow locally, leading to melting and pockets of large crystals close to branches.
Sazlina Salleh and Andrew McMinn
Biogeosciences, 18, 5313–5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The benthic diatom communities in Tanjung Rhu, Malaysia, were regularly exposed to high light and temperature variability during the tidal cycle, resulting in low photosynthetic efficiency. We examined the impact of high temperatures on diatoms' photosynthetic capacities, and temperatures beyond 50 °C caused severe photoinhibition. At the same time, those diatoms exposed to temperatures of 40 °C did not show any sign of photoinhibition.
Cornelius Senf and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 18, 5223–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018. We show that this drought has increased forest disturbances across Europe, especially central and eastern Europe. Disturbance levels observed 2018–2020 were the highest on record for 30 years. Increased forest disturbances were correlated with low moisture and high atmospheric water demand. The unprecedented impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbances demonstrate an urgent need to adapt Europe’s forests to a hotter and drier future.
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Vincent Niderkorn, Annette Morvan-Bertrand, Aline Le Morvan, Angela Augusti, Marie-Laure Decau, and Catherine Picon-Cochard
Biogeosciences, 18, 4841–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change can change vegetation characteristics in grasslands with a potential impact on forage chemical composition and quality, as well as its use by ruminants. Using controlled conditions mimicking a future climatic scenario, we show that forage quality and ruminant digestion are affected in opposite ways by elevated atmospheric CO2 and an extreme event (heat wave, severe drought), indicating that different factors of climate change have to be considered together.
Verónica Pancotto, David Holl, Julio Escobar, María Florencia Castagnani, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 18, 4817–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the response of a wetland plant community to elevated temperature conditions in a cushion bog on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. We measured carbon dioxide fluxes at experimentally warmed plots and at control plots. Warmed plant communities sequestered between 55 % and 85 % less carbon dioxide than untreated control cushions over the main growing season. Our results suggest that even moderate future warming could decrease the carbon sink function of austral cushion bogs.
Melissa A. Ward, Tessa M. Hill, Chelsey Souza, Tessa Filipczyk, Aurora M. Ricart, Sarah Merolla, Lena R. Capece, Brady C O'Donnell, Kristen Elsmore, Walter C. Oechel, and Kathryn M. Beheshti
Biogeosciences, 18, 4717–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Salt marshes and seagrass meadows ("blue carbon" habitats) can sequester and store high levels of organic carbon (OC), helping to mitigate climate change. In California blue carbon sediments, we quantified OC storage and exchange between these habitats. We find that (1) these salt marshes store about twice as much OC as seagrass meadows do and (2), while OC from seagrass meadows is deposited into neighboring salt marshes, little of this material is sequestered as "long-term" carbon.
Damien Couespel, Marina Lévy, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 18, 4321–4349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An alarming consequence of climate change is the oceanic primary production decline projected by Earth system models. These coarse-resolution models parameterize oceanic eddies. Here, idealized simulations of global warming with increasing resolution show that the decline in primary production in the eddy-resolved simulations is half as large as in the eddy-parameterized simulations. This stems from the high sensitivity of the subsurface nutrient transport to model resolution.
Wu Ma, Lu Zhai, Alexandria Pivovaroff, Jacquelyn Shuman, Polly Buotte, Junyan Ding, Bradley Christoffersen, Ryan Knox, Max Moritz, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles D. Koven, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 18, 4005–4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate live fuel moisture dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in live fuel moisture and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
Anna Katavouta and Richard G. Williams
Biogeosciences, 18, 3189–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Diagnostics of the latest-generation Earth system models reveal the ocean will continue to absorb a large fraction of the anthropogenic carbon released to the atmosphere in the next century, with the Atlantic Ocean storing a large amount of this carbon relative to its size. The ability of the ocean to absorb carbon will reduce in the future as the ocean warms and acidifies. This reduction is larger in the Atlantic Ocean due to a weakening of the meridional overturning with changes in climate.
Genevieve Jay Brett, Daniel B. Whitt, Matthew C. Long, Frank Bryan, Kate Feloy, and Kelvin J. Richards
Biogeosciences, 18, 3123–3145, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3123-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3123-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify one form of uncertainty in modeled 21st-century changes in phytoplankton growth. The supply of nutrients from deep to surface waters decreases in the warmer future ocean, but the effect on phytoplankton growth also depends on changes in available light, how much light and nutrient the plankton need, and how fast they can grow. These phytoplankton properties can be summarized as a biological timescale: when it is short, future growth decreases twice as much as when it is long.
Sean M. Ridge and Galen A. McKinley
Biogeosciences, 18, 2711–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Approximately 40 % of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have been absorbed by the ocean. The goal of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement is to reduce humanity's emissions so as to limit global warming to no more than 2 °C, and ideally less than 1.5 °C. If we achieve this level of mitigation, the ocean's uptake of carbon will be strongly reduced. Excess carbon trapped in the near-surface ocean will begin to mix back to the surface and will limit additional uptake.
Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, and Simon L. Lewis
Biogeosciences, 18, 2627–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.
Wei Min Hao, Matthew C. Reeves, L. Scott Baggett, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Bryce L. Nordgren, Alexander Petkov, Rachel E. Corley, Florent Mouillot, Shawn P. Urbanski, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 18, 2559–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016. The annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period under analysis. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan dominated the fire activity, comprising 47 % of the area burned but accounting for 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and the increase in grazing livestock in Kazakhstan are the major factors contributing to the decline in the area burned.
Hangxiao Li, Tianpeng Xu, Jing Ma, Futian Li, and Juntian Xu
Biogeosciences, 18, 1439–1449, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1439-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Few studies have investigated effects of ocean acidification and seasonal changes in temperature and day length on marine diatoms. We cultured a marine diatom under two CO2 levels and three combinations of temperature and day length, simulating different seasons, to investigate combined effects of these factors. Acidification had contrasting effects under different combinations, indicating that the future ocean may show different effects on diatoms in different clusters of factors.
Andrea J. Fassbender, James C. Orr, and Andrew G. Dickson
Biogeosciences, 18, 1407–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A decline in upper-ocean pH with time is typically ascribed to ocean acidification. A more quantitative interpretation is often confused by failing to recognize the implications of pH being a logarithmic transform of hydrogen ion concentration rather than an absolute measure. This can lead to an unwitting misinterpretation of pH data. We provide three real-world examples illustrating this and recommend the reporting of both hydrogen ion concentration and pH in studies of ocean chemical change.
Claudia Hahn, Andreas Lüscher, Sara Ernst-Hasler, Matthias Suter, and Ansgar Kahmen
Biogeosciences, 18, 585–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-585-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-585-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
While existing studies focus on the immediate effects of drought events on grassland productivity, long-term effects are mostly neglected. But, to conclude universal outcomes, studies must consider comprehensive ecosystem mechanisms. In our study, we found that the resistance of growth rates to drought in grasses varies across seasons, and positive legacy effects of drought indicate a high resilience. The high resilience compensates for immediate drought effects on grasses to a large extent.
Wim Verbruggen, Guy Schurgers, Stéphanie Horion, Jonas Ardö, Paulo N. Bernardino, Bernard Cappelaere, Jérôme Demarty, Rasmus Fensholt, Laurent Kergoat, Thomas Sibret, Torbern Tagesson, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 18, 77–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-77-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-77-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A large part of Earth's land surface is covered by dryland ecosystems, which are subject to climate extremes that are projected to increase under future climate scenarios. By using a mathematical vegetation model, we studied the impact of single years of extreme rainfall on the vegetation in the Sahel. We found a contrasting response of grasses and trees to these extremes, strongly dependent on the way precipitation is spread over the rainy season, as well as a long-term impact on CO2 uptake.
Yong Zhang, Sinéad Collins, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 17, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6357-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that ocean acidification, warming, increased light exposure and reduced nutrient availability significantly reduce the growth rate but increase particulate organic and inorganic carbon in cells in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, indicating biogeochemical consequences of future ocean changes on the calcifying microalga. Concurrent changes in nutrient concentrations and pCO2 levels predominantly affected E. huxleyi growth, photosynthetic carbon fixation and calcification.
Rong Bi, Stefanie M. H. Ismar-Rebitz, Ulrich Sommer, Hailong Zhang, and Meixun Zhao
Biogeosciences, 17, 6287–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6287-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lipids provide crucial insight into the trajectory of ecological functioning in changing environments. We experimentally explore responses of lipid biomarker production in phytoplankton to projected changes in temperature, nutrients and pCO2. Differential responses of lipid biomarkers indicate rearrangements of cellular carbon pools under future ocean scenarios. Such variations in lipid biomarker production would have important impacts on marine ecological functions and biogeochemical cycles.
George Roff, Jennifer Joseph, and Peter J. Mumby
Biogeosciences, 17, 5909–5918, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5909-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5909-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, extensive mortality of reef-building corals throughout the Caribbean region has led to the erosion of reef frameworks and declines in biodiversity. Using field observations, models, and high-precision U–Th dating, we quantified changes in the structural complexity of coral reef frameworks over the past 2 decades. Structural complexity was stable at reef scales, yet bioerosion led to declines in small-scale microhabitat complexity with cascading effects on cryptic fauna.
Cited articles
Banks, J. M., Percival, G. C., and Rose, G.: Variations in seasonal drought
tolerance rankings, Trees, 33, 1063–1072, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-019-01842-5, 2019.
Barigah, T. S., Charrier, O., Douris, M., Bonhomme, M., Herbette, S.,
Ameglio, T., Fichot, R., Brignolas, F., and Cochard, H.: Water
stress-induced xylem hydraulic failure is a causal factor of tree mortality
in beech and poplar, Ann. Bot.-London, 112, 1431–1437, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mct204, 2013.
Bates, D., Mächler, M., Bolker, B., and Walker, S.: Fitting Linear
Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4, J. Stat. Softw., 67, 1–48, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v067.i01, 2015.
Benbella, M. and Paulsen, G. M.: Efficacy of Treatments for Delaying
Senescence of Wheat Leaves: II. Senescence and Grain Yield under Field
Conditions, Agron. J., 90, 332–338, https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj1998.00021962009000030004x, 1998.
Böhlenius, H., Huang, T., Charbonnel-Campaa, L., Brunner, A. M.,
Jansson, S., Strauss, S. H., and Nilsson, O.: CO/FT regulatory module
controls timing of flowering and seasonal growth cessation in trees,
Science, 312, 1040–1043, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1126038, 2006.
Bolte, A., Czajkowski, T., Cocozza, C., Tognetti, R., de Miguel, M.,
Psidova, E., Ditmarova, L., Dinca, L., Delzon, S., Cochard, H., Raebild, A.,
de Luis, M., Cvjetkovic, B., Heiri, C., and Muller, J.: Desiccation and
Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica
L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions, Front. Plant Sci., 7, 751, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2016.00751, 2016.
Brelsford, C. C., Trasser, M., Paris, T., Hartikainen, S. M., and Robson, T.
M.: Understory light quality affects leaf pigments and leaf phenology in
different plant functional types, bioRxiv, 829036, https://doi.org/10.1101/829036, 2019.
Brunner, I., Herzog, C., Dawes, M. A., Arend, M., and Sperisen, C.: How tree
roots respond to drought, Front. Plant Sci., 6, 547, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2015.00547, 2015.
Buck, A. L.: New Equations for Computing Vapor Pressure and Enhancement
Factor, J. Appl. Meteorol., 20, 1527–1532, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1981)020<1527:Nefcvp>2.0.Co;2, 1981.
Bultot, F., Coppens, A., and Dupriez, G. L.: Estimation de
l'évapotranspiration potentielle en Belgique: (procédure
révisée), Institut royal météorologique de Belgique, Brussels, Belgium, 1983.
Campioli, M., Verbeeck, H., Van den Bossche, J., Wu, J., Ibrom, A.,
D'Andrea, E., Matteucci, G., Samson, R., Steppe, K., and Granier, A.: Can
decision rules simulate carbon allocation for years with contrasting and
extreme weather conditions? A case study for three temperate beech forests,
Ecol. Model., 263, 42–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.012, 2013.
Carrara, A., Kowalski, A. S., Neirynck, J., Janssens, I. A., Yuste, J. C.,
and Ceulemans, R.: Net ecosystem CO2 exchange of mixed forest in Belgium
over 5 years, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 119, 209–227, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00120-5, 2003.
Chelle, M., Evers, J. B., Combes, D., Varlet-Grancher, C., Vos, J., and
Andrieu, B.: Simulation of the three-dimensional distribution of the
red:far-red ratio within crop canopies, New Phytol., 176, 223–234,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2007.02161.x, 2007.
Chiang, C., Olsen, J. E., Basler, D., Bankestad, D., and Hoch, G.: Latitude
and Weather Influences on Sun Light Quality and the Relationship to Tree
Growth, Forests, 10, 610, https://doi.org/10.3390/f10080610, 2019.
Crabbe, R. A., Dash, J., Rodriguez-Galiano, V. F., Janous, D., Pavelka, M.,
and Marek, M. V.: Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and
productivity in Europe, Sci. Total Environ., 563–564, 486–495, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.124, 2016.
De Boeck, H. J. and Verbeeck, H.: Drought-associated changes in climate and their relevance for ecosystem experiments and models, Biogeosciences, 8, 1121–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-1121-2011, 2011.
De Boeck, H. J., De Groote, T., and Nijs, I.: Leaf temperatures in
glasshouses and open-top chambers, New Phytol., 194, 1155–1164, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04117.x, 2012.
De Vos, B.: Capability of PlantCare Mini-Logger technology for monitoring of
soil water content and temperature in forest soils: test results of 2015,
Reports of Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Instituut voor Natuur-
en Bosonderzoek, 85 pp., 2016.
Estiarte, M. and Penuelas, J.: Alteration of the phenology of leaf
senescence and fall in winter deciduous species by climate change: effects
on nutrient proficiency, Global Change Biol., 21, 1005–1017, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12804, 2015.
Fox, J. and Weisberg, S.: An {R} Companion to Applied Regression, edn. 3, Sage, Thousand Oaks, California, USA, 2019.
Fracheboud, Y., Luquez, V., Bjorken, L., Sjodin, A., Tuominen, H., and
Jansson, S.: The control of autumn senescence in European aspen, Plant
Physiol., 149, 1982–1991, https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.108.133249, 2009.
Franklin, K. A. and Quail, P. H.: Phytochrome functions in Arabidopsis
development, J. Exp. Bot., 61, 11–24, https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp304, 2010.
Fu, Y. S., Campioli, M., Vitasse, Y., De Boeck, H. J., Van den Berge, J., AbdElgawad, H., Asard, H., Piao, S., Deckmyn, G., and Janssens, I. A.: Variation in leaf flushing date influences autumnal senescence and next year's flushing date in two temperate tree species, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 7355–7360, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1321727111, 2014.
Fu, Y. H., Piao, S., Delpierre, N., Hao, F., Hänninen, H., Liu, Y., Sun,
W., Janssens, I. A., and Campioli, M.: Larger temperature response of autumn
leaf senescence than spring leaf-out phenology, Global Change Biol., 24,
2159–2168, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14021, 2018.
Gallinat, A. S., Primack, R. B., and Wagner, D. L.: Autumn, the neglected
season in climate change research, Trends Ecol. Evol., 30, 169–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2015.01.004, 2015.
Gárate-Escamilla, H., Brelsford, C. C., Hampe, A., Robson, T. M., and
Garzón, M. B.: Greater capacity to exploit warming temperatures in
northern populations of European beech is partly driven by delayed leaf
senescence, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 284, 107908, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.107908, 2020.
Garnier, S.: viridis: Default Color Maps from “matplotlib”, R package version 0.5.1 edn., available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=viridis (last access: 2 June 2021), 2018.
Gill, A. L., Gallinat, A. S., Sanders-DeMott, R., Rigden, A. J., Short Gianotti, D. J., Mantooth, J. A., and Templer, P. H.: Changes in autumn
senescence in northern hemisphere deciduous trees: a meta-analysis of autumn
phenology studies, Ann. Bot.-London, 116, 875–888, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcv055, 2015.
Hastie, T. and Tibshirani, R.: Generalized Additive Models, Stat. Sci., 1, 297–310, 1986.
Holm, G.: Chlorophyll Mutations in Barley, Acta Agr. Scand., 4, 457–471, https://doi.org/10.1080/00015125409439955, 1954.
Hörtensteiner, S. and Feller, U.: Nitrogen metabolism and
remobilization during senescence, J. Exp. Bot., 53, 927–937, https://doi.org/10.1093/jexbot/53.370.927, 2002.
Hothorn, T., Bretz, F., and Westfall, P.: Simultaneous Inference in General
Parametric Models, Biometrical J., 50, 346–363, 2008.
IPCC: Climate change 2014: synthesis report, in: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Core Writing Team, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, p. 10, 2014.
Kassambara, A.: ggpubr: “ggplot2” Based Publication Ready Plots, R package version 0.2.4 edn., available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ggpubr (last access: 2 June 2021), 2019.
Keskitalo, J., Bergquist, G., Gardestrom, P., and Jansson, S.: A cellular
timetable of autumn senescence, Plant Physiol., 139, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.105.066845, 2005.
Kint, V., Aertsen, W., Campioli, M., Vansteenkiste, D., Delcloo, A., and
Muys, B.: Radial growth change of temperate tree species in response to
altered regional climate and air quality in the period 1901–2008,
Climate Change, 115, 343–363, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0465-x, 2012.
KMI: Klimatologisch seizoenoverzicht, zomer 2017, available at: https://www.meteo.be/resources/climateReportWeb/klimatologisch_seizoenoverzicht_2017_S3.pdf (last access: 2 June 2021), 2017a.
KMI: Klimatologisch seizoenoverzicht, herfst 2017, available at: https://www.meteo.be/resources/climateReportWeb/klimatologisch_seizoenoverzicht_2017_S4.pdf (last access: 2 June 2021), 2017b.
KMI: Klimatologisch seizoenoverzicht, lente 2017, available at: https://www.meteo.be/resources/climateReportWeb/klimatologisch_seizoenoverzicht_2017_S2.pdf (last access: 2 June 2021), 2017c.
KMI: Klimatologisch seizoenoverzicht, herfst 2018, available at: https://www.meteo.be/resources/climateReportWeb/klimatologisch_seizoenoverzicht_2018_S4.pdf (last access: 2 June 2021), 2018a.
KMI: Klimatologisch seizoenoverzicht, zomer 2018, available at: https://www.meteo.be/resources/climateReportWeb/klimatologisch_seizoenoverzicht_2018_S3.pdf (last access: 2 June 2021), 2018b.
KMI: Klimatologisch seizoenoverzicht, herfst 2019, available at: https://www.meteo.be/resources/climatology/pdf/klimatologisch_seizoenoverzicht_2019_S4.pdf (last access: 2 June 2021), 2019a.
KMI: Klimatologisch seizoenoverzicht, zomer 2019, available at: https://www.meteo.be/resources/climatology/pdf/klimatologisch_seizoenoverzicht_2019_S3.pdf (last access: 2 June 2021), 2019b.
Kobayashi, Y. and Weigel, D.: Move on up, it's time for change – Mobile
signals controlling photoperiod-dependent flowering, Gene. Dev., 21,
2371–2384, https://doi.org/10.1101/gad.1589007, 2007.
Koike, T.: Autumn coloring, photosynthetic performance and leaf development
of deciduous broad-leaved trees in relation to forest succession,
Tree Physiol., 7, 21–32, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/7.1-2-3-4.21, 1990.
Koornneef, M., Hanhart, C. J., and van der Veen, J. H.: A genetic and
physiological analysis of late flowering mutants in Arabidopsis thaliana,
Mol. Gen. Genet., 229, 57–66, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00264213, 1991.
Kwon, J., Khoshimkhujaev, B., Lee, J., Ho, I., Park, K., and Choi, H. G.:
Growth and Yield of Tomato and Cucumber Plants in Polycarbonate or Glass
Greenhouses, Korean J. Hortic. Sci., 35, 79–87, https://doi.org/10.12972/kjhst.20170009, 2017.
Legris, M., Klose, C., Burgie, E. S., Rojas, C. C. R., Neme, M.,
Hiltbrunner, A., Wigge, P. A., Schäfer, E., Vierstra, R. D., and Casal,
J. J.: Phytochrome B integrates light and temperature signals in Arabidopsis, Science, 354, 897–900, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf5656, 2016.
Legris, M., Ince, Y., and Fankhauser, C.: Molecular mechanisms underlying
phytochrome-controlled morphogenesis in plants, Nat. Commun., 10, 5219, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13045-0, 2019.
Leul, M. and Zhou, W.: Alleviation of waterlogging damage in winter rape by
application of uniconazole: Effects on morphological characteristics,
hormones and photosynthesis, Field Crop. Res., 59, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4290(98)00112-9, 1998.
Leuzinger, S., Zotz, G., Asshoff, R., and Korner, C.: Responses of deciduous
forest trees to severe drought in Central Europe, Tree Physiol., 25, 641–650, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/25.6.641, 2005.
Mancinelli, A. L. and Rabino, I.: The “High Irradiance Responses” of Plant
Photomorphogenesis, Bot. Rev., 44, 129–180, 1978.
Mariën, B., Balzarolo, M., Dox, I., Leys, S., Lorene, M. J., Geron, C.,
Portillo-Estrada, M., AbdElgawad, H., Asard, H., and Campioli, M.: Detecting
the onset of autumn leaf senescence in deciduous forest trees of the
temperate zone, New Phytol., 224, 166–176, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15991, 2019.
Mariën, B., Dox, I., J. De Boeck, H., Willems, P., Leys, S., Papadimitriou, D., and Campioli, M.: Does drought advance the onset of autumn leaf senescence in temperature deciduous forest trees: data and R scripts, Biogeosciences, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4559535, 2021.
Matile, P.: Biochemistry of Indian summer: physiology of autumnal leaf
coloration, Exp. Gerontol., 35, 145–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0531-5565(00)00081-4, 2000.
Medawar, P. B.: The Uniqueness of the individual, Methuen Publishing, London, UK, 1957.
Menzel, A., Helm, R., and Zang, C.: Patterns of late spring frost leaf
damage and recovery in a European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stand in
south-eastern Germany based on repeated digital photographs, Front. Plant Sci., 6, 110, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2015.00110, 2015.
Michelson, I. H., Ingvarsson, P. K., Robinson, K. M., Edlund, E., Eriksson,
M. E., Nilsson, O., and Jansson, S.: Autumn senescence in aspen is not
triggered by day length, Physiol. Plantarum, 162, 123–134, https://doi.org/10.1111/ppl.12593, 2018.
Munné-Bosch, S. and Alegre, L.: Die and let live: leaf senescence
contributes to plant survival under drought stress, Funct. Plant Biol., 31, 203–216, https://doi.org/10.1071/fp03236, 2004.
Neff, M. M., Fankhauser, C., and Chory, J.: Light: an indicator of time and
place, Gene. Dev., 14, 257–271, 2000.
Niinemets, Ü.: Responses of forest trees to single and multiple
environmental stresses from seedlings to mature plants: Past stress history,
stress interactions, tolerance and acclimation, Forest Ecol. Manag., 260,
1623–1639, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.07.054, 2010.
Novick, K. A., Ficklin, D. L., Stoy, P. C., Williams, C. A., Bohrer, G.,
Oishi, A. C., Papuga, S. A., Blanken, P. D., Noormets, A., Sulman, B. N.,
Scott, R. L., Wang, L. X., and Phillips, R. P.: The increasing importance of
atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes,
Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 1023–1027, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate3114, 2016.
Pedersen, E. J., Miller, D. L., Simpson, G. L., and Ross, N.: Hierarchical
generalized additive models in ecology: an introduction with mgcv, PeerJ, 7,
e6876, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6876, 2019.
Penman, H. L.: Natural evaporation from open water, hare soil and grass,
P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A Mat., 193, 120–145, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1948.0037, 1948.
Poorter, H., Niinemets, Ü., Ntagkas, N., Siebenkäs, A.,
Mäenpää, M., Matsubara, S., and Pons, T.: A meta-analysis of
plant responses to light intensity for 70 traits ranging from molecules to
whole plant performance, New Phytol., 223, 1073–1105, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15754, 2019.
Pšidová, E., Ditmarová, L., Jamnická, G., Kurjak, D.,
Majerová, J., Czajkowski, T., and Bolte, A.: Photosynthetic response of
beech seedlings of different origin to water deficit, Photosynthetica, 53,
187–194, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11099-015-0101-x, 2015.
R Core Team: A language and environment for statistical computing, R
Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2020.
Richardson, A. D., Keenan, T. F., Migliavacca, M., Ryu, Y., Sonnentag, O.,
and Toomey, M.: Climate change, phenology, and phenological control of
vegetation feedbacks to the climate system, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 169, 156–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.012, 2013.
Rigby, R. A. and Stasinopoulos, D. M.: Generalized additive models for
location, scale and shape, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-App., 54, 507–544,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2005.00510.x, 2005.
Rose, N. L., Yang, H., Turner, S. D., and Simpson, G. L.: An assessment of
the mechanisms for the transfer of lead and mercury from atmospherically
contaminated organic soils to lake sediments with particular reference to
Scotland, UK, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 82, 113–135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2010.12.026, 2012.
Schulze, E.-D., Beck, E., Buchmann, N., Clemens, S., Müller-Hohenstein, K., and Scherer-Lorenzen, M.: Light, in: Plant Ecol., edited by: Schulze, E.-D., Beck, E., Buchmann, N., Clemens, S., Müller-Hohenstein, K., and Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 57–90, 2019.
Seyednasrollah, B., Young, A. M., Li, X., Milliman, T., Ault, T., Frolking,
S., Friedl, M., and Richardson, A. D.: Sensitivity of Deciduous Forest
Phenology to Environmental Drivers: Implications for Climate Change Impacts
Across North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086788, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086788, 2020.
Simpson, G. L.: gratia: Graceful “ggplot”-Based Graphics and Other Functions for GAMs Fitted Using “mgcv”, R package version 0.3.0. edn., available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=gratia (last access: 2 June 2021), 2020.
Smith, H.: Light Quality, Photoperception, and Plant Strategy,
Ann. Rev. Plant Physio., 33, 481–518, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.pp.33.060182.002405, 1982.
Turcsan, A., Steppe, K., Sarkozi, E., Erdelyi, E., Missoorten, M., Mees, G.,
and Mijnsbrugge, K. V.: Early Summer Drought Stress During the First Growing
Year Stimulates Extra Shoot Growth in Oak Seedlings (Quercus petraea), Front. Plant Sci., 7, 193, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2016.00193, 2016.
Van den Berge, J., Naudts, K., Zavalloni, C., Janssens, I. A., Ceulemans,
R., and Nijs, I.: Altered response to nitrogen supply of mixed grassland
communities in a future climate: a controlled environment microcosm study,
Plant Soil, 345, 375–385, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-011-0789-8, 2011.
van der Werf, G. W., Sass-Klaassen, U. G. W., and Mohren, G. M. J.: The
impact of the 2003 summer drought on the intra-annual growth pattern of
beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and oak (Quercus robur L.) on a dry site in the
Netherlands, Dendrochronologia, 25, 103–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2007.03.004, 2007.
Vander Mijnsbrugge, K., Turcsan, A., Maes, J., Duchene, N., Meeus, S.,
Steppe, K., and Steenackers, M.: Repeated Summer Drought and Re-watering
during the First Growing Year of Oak (Quercus petraea) Delay Autumn
Senescence and Bud Burst in the Following Spring, Front. Plant Sci., 7, 419, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2016.00419, 2016.
Vitasse, Y., François, C., Delpierre, N., Dufrêne, E., Kremer, A.,
Chuine, I., and Delzon, S.: Assessing the effects of climate change on the
phenology of European temperate trees, Agr. Forest Meteorol.,
151, 969–980, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.03.003, 2011.
Vito, M. and Muggeo, R.: segmented: an R Package to Fit Regression Models
with Broken-Line Relationships, R News, 8, 20–25, 2008.
Vonwettstein, D.: Chlorophyll-letale und der submikroskopische Formwechsel
der Plastiden, Exp. Cell Res., 12, 427–506, https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-4827(57)90165-9, 1957.
Wang, S., Yang, B., Yang, Q., Lu, L., Wang, X., and Peng, Y.: Temporal
Trends and Spatial Variability of Vegetation Phenology over the Northern
Hemisphere during 1982–2012, PLoS ONE, 11, e0157134, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0157134, 2016.
Wickham, H.: ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis, Springer-Verlag,
New York, USA, 2009.
Wickham, H., Francois, R., Henry, L., and Müller, K.: dplyr: A Grammar
of Data Manipulation, R package version 0.7.4 edn., available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dplyr (last access: 2 June 2021), 2018.
Wilke, C. O.: cowplot: Streamlined Plot Theme and Plot Annotations for
“ggplot2”, R package version 1.0.0 edn., available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ggridges (last access: 2 June 2021), 2019.
Willems, P.: Compound intensity/duration/frequency-relationships of extreme
precipitation for two seasons and two storm types, J. Hydrol.,
233, 189–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(00)00233-x, 2000.
Willems, P.: Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in
Europe, Climate Change, 120, 931–944, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0837-x, 2013.
Wolfe, B. T., Sperry, J. S., and Kursar, T. A.: Does leaf shedding protect
stems from cavitation during seasonal droughts? A test of the hydraulic fuse
hypothesis, New Phytol., 212, 1007–1018, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14087, 2016.
Wood, S. N.: Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal
likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models,
J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 73, 3–36, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2010.00749.x, 2011.
Xie, Y. and Wilson, A. M.: Change point estimation of deciduous forest land
surface phenology, Remote Sens. Environ., 240, 111698, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111698, 2020.
Yanovsky, M. J. and Kay, S. A.: Molecular basis of seasonal time
measurement in Arabidopsis, Nature, 419, 308–312, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature00996, 2002.
Zeileis, A. and Hothorn, T.: Diagnostic Checking in Regression
Relationships, R News, 2, 7–10, 2002.
Zeng, H., Jia, G., and Epstein, H.: Recent changes in phenology over the
northern high latitudes detected from multi-satellite data,
Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 045508, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045508, 2011.
Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., and Smith, G.: Analysing Ecological Data, Statistics for Biology and Health, Zuur, New York, XXVI, 672, 2007.
Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., and Elphick, C. S.: A protocol for data
exploration to avoid common statistical problems, Methods Ecol. Evol., 1,
3–14, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2009.00001.x, 2010.
Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., and Freckleton, R.: A protocol for conducting and
presenting results of regression-type analyses, Methods Ecol. Evol., 7,
636–645, https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12577, 2016.
Short summary
The drivers of the onset of autumn leaf senescence for several deciduous tree species are still unclear. Therefore, we addressed (i) if drought impacts the timing of autumn leaf senescence and (ii) if the relationship between drought and autumn leaf senescence depends on the tree species. Our study suggests that the timing of autumn leaf senescence is conservative across years and species and even independent of drought stress.
The drivers of the onset of autumn leaf senescence for several deciduous tree species are still...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint