Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
Biogeosciences, 18, 3657–3687, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021
Biogeosciences, 18, 3657–3687, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021

Research article 18 Jun 2021

Research article | 18 Jun 2021

Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum

Jurek Müller and Fortunat Joos

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Cited articles

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Alexandrov, G. A., Brovkin, V. A., and Kleinen, T.: The influence of climate on peatland extent in Western Siberia since the Last Glacial Maximum, Sci. Rep., 6, 6–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24784, 2016. a, b
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Avis, C. A., Weaver, A. J., and Meissner, K. J.: Reduction in areal extent of high-latitude wetlands in response to permafrost thaw, Nat. Geosci., 4, 444–448, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1160, 2011. a
Bauer, I. E., Gignac, L. D., and Vitt, D. H.: Development of a peatland complex in boreal western Canada: Lateral site expansion and local variability in vegetation succession and long-term peat accumulation, Can. J. Bot., 81, 833–847, https://doi.org/10.1139/b03-076, 2003. a
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We present long-term projections of global peatland area and carbon with a continuous transient history since the Last Glacial Maximum. Our novel results show that large parts of today’s northern peatlands are at risk from past and future climate change, with larger emissions clearly connected to larger risks. The study includes comparisons between different emission and land-use scenarios, driver attribution through factorial simulations, and assessments of uncertainty from climate forcing.
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