Articles | Volume 21, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024
Research article
 | 
04 Sep 2024
Research article |  | 04 Sep 2024

Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models

Jens Terhaar

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Cited articles

Bacastow, R. B.: Modulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the Southern Oscillation, Nature, 261, 116–118, https://doi.org/10.1038/261116a0, 1976. 
Bennington, V., Galjanic, T., and McKinley, G. A.: Explicit Physical Knowledge in Machine Learning for Ocean Carbon Flux Reconstruction: The pCO2-Residual Method, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, 3345, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ms002960, 2022a. 
Bennington, V., Gloege, L., and McKinley, G. A.: Variability in the global ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2020 by correcting models with observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL098632, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098632, 2022b. 
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Short summary
Despite the ocean’s importance in the carbon cycle and hence the climate, observing the ocean carbon sink remains challenging. Here, I use an ensemble of 12 models to understand drivers of decadal trends of the past, present, and future ocean carbon sink. I show that 80 % of the decadal trends in the multi-model mean ocean carbon sink can be explained by changes in decadal trends in atmospheric CO2. The remaining 20 % are due to internal climate variability and ocean heat uptake.
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