Articles | Volume 11, issue 21
Biogeosciences, 11, 6017–6027, 2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 05 Nov 2014
Research article | 05 Nov 2014
Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast
M. Martin Calvo et al.
No articles found.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Preprint under review for BGShort summary
Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318,Short summary
Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543,Short summary
Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Sean F. Cleator, Sandy P. Harrison, Nancy K. Nichols, I. Colin Prentice, and Ian Roulstone
Clim. Past, 16, 699–712,Short summary
We present geographically explicit reconstructions of seasonal temperature and annual moisture variables at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago. The reconstructions use existing site-based estimates of climate, interpolated in space and time in a physically consistent way using climate model simulations. The reconstructions give a much better picture of the LGM climate and will provide a robust evaluation of how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate large climate changes.
Benjamin D. Stocker, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Sandy P. Harrison, Trevor F. Keenan, David Sandoval, Tyler Davis, and I. Colin Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1545–1581,Short summary
Estimating terrestrial photosynthesis relies on satellite data of vegetation cover and models simulating the efficiency by which light absorbed by vegetation is used for CO2 assimilation. This paper presents the P-model, a light use efficiency model derived from a carbon–water optimality principle, and evaluates its predictions of ecosystem-level photosynthesis against globally distributed observations. The model is implemented and openly accessible as an R package (rpmodel).
Guangqi Li, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Publication in BG not foreseenShort summary
Current methods of removing age effect from tree-ring are influenced by sampling biases – older trees are more abundantly sampled for recent decades, when the strongest environmental change happens. New technique of extracting environment-driven signals from tree ring is specifically designed to overcome this bias, drawing on theoretical tree growth. It removes sampling-bias effectively and shows consistent relationships between growth and climates through time and across two conifer species.
Dongyang Wei, Penélope González-Sampériz, Graciela Gil-Romera, Sandy P. Harrison, and I. Colin Prentice
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
El Cañizar de Villarquemado provides a pollen record from semi-arid Spain since before the last interglacial. We use modern pollen–climate relationships to reconstruct changes in seasonal temperature and moisture, accounting for CO2 effects on plants, and show coherent climate changes on glacial–interglacial and orbital timescales. The low glacial CO2 means moisture changes are less extreme than suggested by the vegetation shifts, and driven by evapotranspiration rather than rainfall changes.
Henrique Fürstenau Togashi, Iain Colin Prentice, Owen K. Atkin, Craig Macfarlane, Suzanne M. Prober, Keith J. Bloomfield, and Bradley John Evans
Biogeosciences, 15, 3461–3474,Short summary
Ecosystem models commonly assume that photosynthetic traits, such as carboxylation capacity measured at a standard temperature, are constant in time and therefore do not acclimate. Optimality hypotheses suggest this assumption may be incorrect. We investigated acclimation by carrying out measurements on woody species during distinct seasons in Western Australia. Our study shows evidence that carboxylation capacity should acclimate so that it increases somewhat with growth temperature.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677,Short summary
Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030,Short summary
The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Tyler W. Davis, I. Colin Prentice, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rebecca T. Thomas, Rhys J. Whitley, Han Wang, Bradley J. Evans, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Martin T. Sykes, and Wolfgang Cramer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 689–708,Short summary
This research presents a comprehensive description for calculating necessary, but sparsely observed, factors related to Earth's surface energy and water budgets relevant in, but not limited to, the study of ecosystems. We present the equations, including their derivations and assumptions, as well as example indicators relevant to plant-available moisture. The robustness of these relatively simple equations provides a tool to be used across broad fields of scientific research.
Ning Dong, Iain Colin Prentice, Bradley J. Evans, Stefan Caddy-Retalic, Andrew J. Lowe, and Ian J. Wright
Biogeosciences, 14, 481–495,Short summary
The nitrogen content of leaves is a key quantity for understanding ecosystem function. We analysed variations in nitrogen per unit leaf area among species at sites along a transect across Australia including many climates and ecosystem types. The data could be explained by the idea that leaf nitrogen comprises two parts, one proportional to leaf mass, the other (metabolic) part proportional to light intensity and declining with CO2 drawdown and temperature, as optimal allocation theory predicts.
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133,Short summary
We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375,Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
A. V. Gallego-Sala, D. J. Charman, S. P. Harrison, G. Li, and I. C. Prentice
Clim. Past, 12, 129–136,Short summary
It has become a well-established paradigm that blanket bog landscapes in the British Isles are a result of forest clearance by early human populations. We provide a novel test of this hypothesis using results from bioclimatic modelling driven by cimate reconstructions compared with a database of peat initiation dates. Both results show similar patterns of peat initiation over time and space. This suggests that climate was the main driver of blanket bog inception and not human disturbance.
B. A. A. Hoogakker, R. S. Smith, J. S. Singarayer, R. Marchant, I. C. Prentice, J. R. M. Allen, R. S. Anderson, S. A. Bhagwat, H. Behling, O. Borisova, M. Bush, A. Correa-Metrio, A. de Vernal, J. M. Finch, B. Fréchette, S. Lozano-Garcia, W. D. Gosling, W. Granoszewski, E. C. Grimm, E. Grüger, J. Hanselman, S. P. Harrison, T. R. Hill, B. Huntley, G. Jiménez-Moreno, P. Kershaw, M.-P. Ledru, D. Magri, M. McKenzie, U. Müller, T. Nakagawa, E. Novenko, D. Penny, L. Sadori, L. Scott, J. Stevenson, P. J. Valdes, M. Vandergoes, A. Velichko, C. Whitlock, and C. Tzedakis
Clim. Past, 12, 51–73,Short summary
In this paper we use two climate models to test how Earth’s vegetation responded to changes in climate over the last 120 000 years, looking at warm interglacial climates like today, cold ice-age glacial climates, and intermediate climates. The models agree well with observations from pollen, showing smaller forested areas and larger desert areas during cold periods. Forests store most terrestrial carbon; the terrestrial carbon lost during cold climates was most likely relocated to the oceans.
M. G. De Kauwe, S.-X. Zhou, B. E. Medlyn, A. J. Pitman, Y.-P. Wang, R. A. Duursma, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences, 12, 7503–7518,Short summary
Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitivity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art models currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. Our results indicate that models will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.
A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, K. Lambeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, W. R. Peltier, L. Tarasov, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, and K. Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3621–3637,Short summary
We describe the creation of boundary conditions related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and altitude of ice-free land, at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), for use in LGM experiments conducted as part of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The difference in the ice sheet boundary conditions as well as the climate response to them are discussed.
T.-T. Meng, H. Wang, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, J. Ni, and G. Wang
Biogeosciences, 12, 5339–5352,Short summary
By analysing the quantitative leaf-traits along extensive temperature and moisture gradients with generalized linear models, we found that metabolism-related traits are universally acclimated to environmental conditions, rather than being fixed within plant functional types. The results strongly support a move towards Dynamic Global Vegetation Models in which continuous, adaptive trait variation provides the fundamental mechanism for changes in ecosystem properties along environmental gradients.
I. C. Prentice, X. Liang, B. E. Medlyn, and Y.-P. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5987–6005,Short summary
Land surface models (LSMs) describe how carbon and water fluxes react to environmental change. They are key component of climate models, yet they differ enormously. Many perform poorly, despite having many parameters. We outline a development strategy emphasizing robustness, reliability and realism, none of which is guaranteed by complexity alone. We propose multiple constraints, benchmarking and data assimilation, and representing unresolved processes stochastically, as tools in this endeavour.
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
I. Hessler, S. P. Harrison, M. Kucera, C. Waelbroeck, M.-T. Chen, C. Anderson, A. de Vernal, B. Fréchette, A. Cloke-Hayes, G. Leduc, and L. Londeix
Clim. Past, 10, 2237–2252,
G. Li, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and D. Falster
Biogeosciences, 11, 6711–6724,
H. Wang, I. C. Prentice, and T. W. Davis
Biogeosciences, 11, 5987–6001,
D. I. Kelley, S. P. Harrison, and I. C. Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2411–2433,
I. Bistinas, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, and J. M. C. Pereira
Biogeosciences, 11, 5087–5101,
P. N. Foster, I. C. Prentice, C. Morfopoulos, M. Siddall, and M. van Weele
Biogeosciences, 11, 3437–3451,
E. Journet, Y. Balkanski, and S. P. Harrison
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3801–3816,
A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 10, 551–568,
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250,
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328,
A. M. Ukkola and I. C. Prentice
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4177–4187,
H. Wang, I. C. Prentice, and J. Ni
Biogeosciences, 10, 5817–5830,
D. I. Kelley, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, H. Wang, M. Simard, J. B. Fisher, and K. O. Willis
Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340,
F. J. Bragg, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, G. Eglinton, P. N. Foster, F. Rommerskirchen, and J. Rullkötter
Biogeosciences, 10, 2001–2010,
D. J. Charman, D. W. Beilman, M. Blaauw, R. K. Booth, S. Brewer, F. M. Chambers, J. A. Christen, A. Gallego-Sala, S. P. Harrison, P. D. M. Hughes, S. T. Jackson, A. Korhola, D. Mauquoy, F. J. G. Mitchell, I. C. Prentice, M. van der Linden, F. De Vleeschouwer, Z. C. Yu, J. Alm, I. E. Bauer, Y. M. C. Corish, M. Garneau, V. Hohl, Y. Huang, E. Karofeld, G. Le Roux, J. Loisel, R. Moschen, J. E. Nichols, T. M. Nieminen, G. M. MacDonald, N. R. Phadtare, N. Rausch, Ü. Sillasoo, G. T. Swindles, E.-S. Tuittila, L. Ukonmaanaho, M. Väliranta, S. van Bellen, B. van Geel, D. H. Vitt, and Y. Zhao
Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944,
Related subject area
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A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2Foraminiferal holobiont thermal tolerance under future warming – roommate problems or successful collaboration?Impacts of enhanced weathering on biomass production for negative emission technologies and soil hydrologyPotential predictability of marine ecosystem driversIs deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline?Spatio-temporal variations and uncertainty in land surface modelling for high latitudes: univariate response analysisMicrostructure and composition of marine aggregates as co-determinants for vertical particulate organic carbon transfer in the global oceanQuantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003Reviews and syntheses: How do abiotic and biotic processes respond to climatic variations in the Nam Co catchment (Tibetan Plateau)?Simulation of factors affecting Emiliania huxleyi blooms in Arctic and sub-Arctic seas by CMIP5 climate models: model validation and selectionParticulate trace metal dynamics in response to increased CO2 and iron availability in a coastal mesocosm experimentZooplankton diel vertical migration and downward C flux into the oxygen minimum zone in the highly productive upwelling region off northern ChileA meta-analysis of microcosm experiments shows that dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production in polar waters is insensitive to ocean acidificationForest aboveground biomass stock and resilience in a tropical landscape of ThailandEnhanced Weathering and related element fluxes – a cropland mesocosm approachTrees do not always act their age: size-deterministic tree ring standardization for long-term trend estimation in shade-tolerant treesRapid environmental responses to climate-induced hydrographic changes in the Baltic Sea entranceTrend analysis of the airborne fraction and sink rate of anthropogenically released CO2Dissolved organic nutrients dominate melting surface ice of the Dark Zone (Greenland Ice Sheet)Ideas and perspectives: Synergies from co-deployment of negative emission technologiesAssessment of time of emergence of anthropogenic deoxygenation and warming: insights from a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CEDispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia – a genetic and simulation-based studySimulating growth-based harvest adaptive to future climate changeMonitoring changes in forestry and seasonal snow using surface albedo during 1982–2016 as an indicatorOcean acidification reduces hardness and stiffness of the Portuguese oyster shell with impaired microstructure: a hierarchical analysisLegacies of past land use have a stronger effect on forest carbon exchange than future climate change in a temperate forest landscapeReviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regionsVariable metabolic responses of Skagerrak invertebrates to low O2 and high CO2 scenariosOcean acidification increases the sensitivity of and variability in physiological responses of an intertidal limpet to thermal stressComparing soil carbon loss through respiration and leaching under extreme precipitation events in arid and semiarid grasslandsIncreasing coastal slump activity impacts the release of sediment and organic carbon into the Arctic OceanThe pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire modelSimultaneous shifts in elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids of Emiliania huxleyi in response to environmental changesImpacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the SahelImpact of diurnal temperature fluctuations on larval settlement and growth of the reef coral Pocillopora damicornisClimate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production
Claudia Hahn, Andreas Lüscher, Sara Ernst-Hasler, Matthias Suter, and Ansgar Kahmen
Biogeosciences, 18, 585–604,Short summary
While existing studies focus on the immediate effects of drought events on grassland productivity, long-term effects are mostly neglected. But, to conclude universal outcomes, studies must consider comprehensive ecosystem mechanisms. In our study, we found that the resistance of growth rates to drought in grasses varies across seasons, and positive legacy effects of drought indicate a high resilience. The high resilience compensates for immediate drought effects on grasses to a large extent.
Wim Verbruggen, Guy Schurgers, Stéphanie Horion, Jonas Ardö, Paulo N. Bernardino, Bernard Cappelaere, Jérôme Demarty, Rasmus Fensholt, Laurent Kergoat, Thomas Sibret, Torbern Tagesson, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 18, 77–93,Short summary
A large part of Earth's land surface is covered by dryland ecosystems, which are subject to climate extremes that are projected to increase under future climate scenarios. By using a mathematical vegetation model, we studied the impact of single years of extreme rainfall on the vegetation in the Sahel. We found a contrasting response of grasses and trees to these extremes, strongly dependent on the way precipitation is spread over the rainy season, as well as a long-term impact on CO2 uptake.
Yong Zhang, Sinéad Collins, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 17, 6357–6375,Short summary
Our results show that ocean acidification, warming, increased light exposure and reduced nutrient availability significantly reduce the growth rate but increase particulate organic and inorganic carbon in cells in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, indicating biogeochemical consequences of future ocean changes on the calcifying microalga. Concurrent changes in nutrient concentrations and pCO2 levels predominantly affected E. huxleyi growth, photosynthetic carbon fixation and calcification.
Rong Bi, Stefanie M. H. Ismar-Rebitz, Ulrich Sommer, Hailong Zhang, and Meixun Zhao
Biogeosciences, 17, 6287–6307,Short summary
Lipids provide crucial insight into the trajectory of ecological functioning in changing environments. We experimentally explore responses of lipid biomarker production in phytoplankton to projected changes in temperature, nutrients and pCO2. Differential responses of lipid biomarkers indicate rearrangements of cellular carbon pools under future ocean scenarios. Such variations in lipid biomarker production would have important impacts on marine ecological functions and biogeochemical cycles.
George Roff, Jennifer Joseph, and Peter J. Mumby
Biogeosciences, 17, 5909–5918,Short summary
In recent decades, extensive mortality of reef-building corals throughout the Caribbean region has led to the erosion of reef frameworks and declines in biodiversity. Using field observations, models, and high-precision U–Th dating, we quantified changes in the structural complexity of coral reef frameworks over the past 2 decades. Structural complexity was stable at reef scales, yet bioerosion led to declines in small-scale microhabitat complexity with cascading effects on cryptic fauna.
Yota Harada, Rod M. Connolly, Brian Fry, Damien T. Maher, James Z. Sippo, Luke C. Jeffrey, Adam J. Bourke, and Shing Yip Lee
Biogeosciences, 17, 5599–5613,Short summary
In 2015–2016, an extensive area of mangroves along ~ 1000 km of coastline in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia, experienced dieback as a result of a climatic extreme event that included drought conditions and low sea levels. Multiannual field campaigns conducted from 2016 to 2018 show substantial recovery of the mangrove vegetation. However, stable isotopes suggest long-lasting changes in carbon, nitrogen and sulfur cycling following the dieback.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638,Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Andrea J. Fassbender, James C. Orr, and Andrew G. Dickson
Revised manuscript accepted for BGShort summary
A decline in upper ocean pH with time is typically ascribed to ocean acidification. A more quantitative interpretation is often confused by failing to recognize the implications of pH being a logarithmic transform of hydrogen ion concentration, rather than an absolute measure. This can lead to an unwitting misinterpretation of pH data. We provide three real-world examples illustrating this and recommend the reporting of both hydrogen ion concentration and pH in studies of ocean chemical change.
Hangxiao Li, Tianpeng Xu, Jing Ma, Futian Li, and Juntian Xu
Revised manuscript accepted for BGShort summary
Few studies investigated interactions of ocean acidification and seasonal changes in temperature and daylength on marine diatoms. We cultured a marine diatom under two CO2 levels and three combinations of temperature and daylength, simulating different seasons, to investigate combined effects of these factors. Results showed acidification had contrasting effects under different combinations, indicating that future ocean may show differential effects on diatoms in different cluster of factors.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222,Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Daniel E. Pabon-Moreno, Talie Musavi, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, Christine Römermann, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 3991–4006,Short summary
Ecosystem CO2 uptake changes in time depending on climate conditions. In this study, we analyze how different climate variables affect the timing when CO2 uptake is at a maximum (DOYGPPmax). We found that the joint effects of radiation, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit are the most relevant controlling factors of DOYGPPmax and that if they increase, DOYGPPmax will happen earlier. These results help us to better understand how CO2 uptake could be affected by climate change.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989,Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Natalya D. Gallo, Kevin Hardy, Nicholas C. Wegner, Ashley Nicoll, Haleigh Yang, and Lisa A. Levin
Biogeosciences, 17, 3943–3960,Short summary
Environmental exposure histories can affect organismal sensitivity to climate change and ocean deoxygenation. The natural variability of environmental conditions for nearshore deep-sea habitats is poorly known due to technological challenges. We develop and test a novel, autonomous, hand-deployable lander outfitted with environmental sensors and a camera system and use it to characterize high-frequency oxygen, temperature, and pH variability at 100–400 m as well as seafloor community responses.
Vincent Echevin, Manon Gévaudan, Dante Espinoza-Morriberón, Jorge Tam, Olivier Aumont, Dimitri Gutierrez, and François Colas
Biogeosciences, 17, 3317–3341,Short summary
The coasts of Peru encompass the richest fisheries in the entire ocean. It is therefore very important for this country to understand how the nearshore marine ecosystem may evolve under climate change. Fine-scale numerical models are very useful because they can represent precisely the evolution of key parameters such as temperature, water oxygenation, and plankton biomass. Here we study the evolution of the Peruvian marine ecosystem in the 21st century under the worst-case climate scenario.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016,Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Doron Pinko, Sigal Abramovich, and Danna Titelboim
Biogeosciences, 17, 2341–2348,Short summary
Future warming threatens many marine organisms; among these are large benthic foraminifera. These symbiont-bearing protists are major carbonate producers and ecosystem engineers. To assess the relative contribution of host and symbiont algae to the holobiont thermal tolerance, we evaluated the calcification rate and photosynthetic activity under future warming scenarios.
Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Kristine Karstens, Alexander Popp, Lena R. Boysen, Pete Smith, and Daniel Goll
Biogeosciences, 17, 2107–2133,Short summary
Biomass-based terrestrial negative emission technologies (tNETS) have high potential to sequester CO2. Many CO2 uptake estimates do not include the effect of nutrient deficiencies in soils on biomass production. We show that nutrients can be partly resupplied by enhanced weathering (EW) rock powder application, increasing the effectiveness of tNETs. Depending on the deployed amounts of rock powder, EW could also improve soil hydrology, adding a new dimension to the coupling of tNETs with EW.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083,Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Angélique Hameau, Thomas L. Frölicher, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 1877–1895,Short summary
Ocean deoxygenation and warming are observed and projected to intensify under continued greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas temperature is considered the main climate change indicator, we show that in certain regions, thermocline doxygenation may be detectable before warming.
Didier G. Leibovici, Shaun Quegan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Maria Val Martin, Mathieu Guimberteau, Arsène Druel, Dan Zhu, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 17, 1821–1844,Short summary
Analysing the impact of environmental changes due to climate change, e.g. geographical spread of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) and agriculture crop modelling, may require land surface modelling (LSM) to predict future land surface conditions. There are multiple LSMs to choose from. The paper proposes a multivariate spatio-temporal data science method to understand the inherent uncertainties in four LSMs and the variations between them in Nordic areas for the net primary production.
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 17, 1765–1803,Short summary
Marine micro-algae bind carbon dioxide, CO2. During their decay, snowflake-like aggregates form that sink, remineralize and transport organically bound CO2 to depth; this is referred to as the biological carbon pump. In our model study, we elucidate how variable aggregate composition impacts the global pattern of vertical carbon fluxes. Our mechanistic model approach advances the representation of the global biological carbon pump and promotes a more realistic projection under climate change.
Allan Buras, Anja Rammig, and Christian S. Zang
Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672,Short summary
This study compares the climatic conditions and ecosystem response of the extreme European drought of 2018 with the previous extreme drought of 2003. Using gridded climate data and satellite-based remote sensing information, our analyses qualify 2018 as the new European record drought with wide-ranging negative impacts on European ecosystems. Given the observation of forest-legacy effects in 2019 we call for Europe-wide forest monitoring to assess forest vulnerability to climate change.
Sten Anslan, Mina Azizi Rad, Johannes Buckel, Paula Echeverria Galindo, Jinlei Kai, Wengang Kang, Laura Keys, Philipp Maurischat, Felix Nieberding, Eike Reinosch, Handuo Tang, Tuong Vi Tran, Yuyang Wang, and Antje Schwalb
Biogeosciences, 17, 1261–1279,Short summary
Due to the high elevation, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is affected more strongly than the global average by climate warming. As a result of increasing air temperature, several environmental processes have accelerated, such as melting glaciers, thawing permafrost and grassland degradation. We review several modern and paleoenvironmental changes forced by climate warming in the lake system of Nam Co to shape our understanding of global warming effects on current and future geobiodiversity.
Natalia Gnatiuk, Iuliia Radchenko, Richard Davy, Evgeny Morozov, and Leonid Bobylev
Biogeosciences, 17, 1199–1212,Short summary
We analysed the ability of 34 climate models to reproduce main factors affecting the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi blooms in six Arctic and sub-Arctic seas. Furthermore, we proposed a procedure of ranking and selecting these models based on the model’s skill in reproducing 10 important oceanographic, meteorological, and biochemical variables in comparison with observation data and demonstrated that the proposed methodology shows a better result than commonly used all-model averaging.
M. Rosario Lorenzo, María Segovia, Jay T. Cullen, and María T. Maldonado
Biogeosciences, 17, 757–770,Short summary
Pritha Tutasi and Ruben Escribano
Biogeosciences, 17, 455–473,Short summary
Vertical migration of zooplankton has rarely been studied under the effect of a variable community structure, which depending on the behavior and size of its groups can strongly alter the magnitude of C being actively taken to depth by migrants. Here, we address this issue in a highly productive upwelling system, where a high amount of zooplankton can daily move below the mixed layer despite presence of an extremely low–oxygen water and so contribute to a significant export of C to depth.
Frances E. Hopkins, Philip D. Nightingale, John A. Stephens, C. Mark Moore, Sophie Richier, Gemma L. Cripps, and Stephen D. Archer
Biogeosciences, 17, 163–186,Short summary
We investigated the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on the production of climate active gas dimethylsulfide (DMS) in polar waters. We found that polar DMS production was unaffected by OA – in contrast to temperate waters, where large increases in DMS occurred. The regional differences in DMS response may reflect natural variability in community adaptation to ambient carbonate chemistry and should be taken into account in predicting the influence of future DMS emissions on Earth's climate.
Nidhi Jha, Nitin Kumar Tripathi, Wirong Chanthorn, Warren Brockelman, Anuttara Nathalang, Raphaël Pélissier, Siriruk Pimmasarn, Pierre Ploton, Nophea Sasaki, Salvatore G. P. Virdis, and Maxime Réjou-Méchain
Biogeosciences, 17, 121–134,Short summary
Carbon stocks and dynamics are both uncertain in tropical forests, especially in Asia. We here quantify the carbon stock and recovery rate of a Thai landscape using airborne lidar and four decades of Landsat data. We show that the landscape has a high carbon stock despite its disturbance history and that secondary forests are accumulating carbon at high rate. Our study shows the potential synergy of remote sensing and field data to characterize the carbon dynamics of tropical forests.
Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Eric Struyf, Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Elke K. Fischer, Ivan Janssens, Patrick Meire, and Jonas Schoelynck
Biogeosciences, 17, 103–119,Short summary
Weathering is a major control on atmospheric CO2 at geologic timescales. Enhancement of this process can be used to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Field results are still scarce and with this experiment we try to add some near-natural insights into dissolution processes. Results show CO2 sequestration potentials but also highlight the strong variability of outcomes that can be expected in natural environments. Such experiments are of the utmost importance to identify key processes.
Rachel Dietrich and Madhur Anand
Biogeosciences, 16, 4815–4827,Short summary
In shade-tolerant tree species, growth is not strictly related to tree age. In this study we show that novel tree ring standardization models that incorporate tree size in the year of ring formation produce more accurate chronologies than those produced by contemporary, age-based standardization models. These findings are important for accurate and reliable long-term trend reconstruction in tree ring studies in all species but are especially so for shade-tolerant species.
Laurie M. Charrieau, Karl Ljung, Frederik Schenk, Ute Daewel, Emma Kritzberg, and Helena L. Filipsson
Biogeosciences, 16, 3835–3852,Short summary
We reconstructed environmental changes in the Öresund during the last 200 years, using foraminifera (microfossils), sediment, and climate data. Five zones were identified, reflecting oxygen, salinity, food content, and pollution levels for each period. The largest changes occurred ~ 1950, towards stronger currents. The foraminifera responded quickly (< 10 years) to the changes. Moreover, they did not rebound when the system returned to the previous pattern, but displayed a new equilibrium state.
Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, and Siem Jan Koopman
Biogeosciences, 16, 3651–3663,Short summary
Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is the rate at which the ocean and land sinks take up CO2 from the atmosphere decreasing? We analyse these questions by means of a statistical dynamic multivariate model from which we estimate the unobserved trend processes together with the parameters that govern them. We find no statistical evidence of an increasing airborne fraction, but we do find statistical evidence of a decreasing sink rate.
Alexandra T. Holland, Christopher J. Williamson, Fotis Sgouridis, Andrew J. Tedstone, Jenine McCutcheon, Joseph M. Cook, Ewa Poniecka, Marian L. Yallop, Martyn Tranter, Alexandre M. Anesio, and The Black & Bloom Group
Biogeosciences, 16, 3283–3296,Short summary
This paper provides a preliminary data set for dissolved nutrient abundance in the Dark Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This 15-year marked darkening has since been attributed to glacier algae blooms, yet has not been accounted for in current melt rate models. We conclude that the dissolved organic phase dominates surface ice environments and that factors other than macronutrient limitation control the extent and magnitude of the glacier algae blooms.
Thorben Amann and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 16, 2949–2960,Short summary
With the recent publication of the IPCC special report on the 1.5 °C target and increased attention on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, we think it is time to advance from the current way of looking at specific strategies to a more holistic CDR perspective, since multiple "side effects" may lead to additional CO2 uptake into different carbon pools. This paper explores potential co-benefits between terrestrial CDR strategies to facilitate a maximum CO2 sequestration effect.
Angélique Hameau, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 16, 1755–1780,Short summary
The observed decrease of oxygen and warming in the ocean may adversely affect marine ecosystems and their services. We analyse results from an Earth system model for the last millennium and the 21st century. We find changes in temperature and oxygen due to fossil fuel burning and other human activities to exceed natural variations in many ocean regions already today. Natural variability is biased low in earlier studies neglecting forcing from past volcanic eruptions and solar change.
Stefan Kruse, Alexander Gerdes, Nadja J. Kath, Laura S. Epp, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 16, 1211–1224,Short summary
How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current global warming? To answer this, we newly parameterized dispersal processes in the individual-based and spatially explicit model LAVESI-WIND based on parentage analysis. Simulation results show that northernmost open forest stands are migrating at an unexpectedly slow rate into tundra. We conclude that the treeline currently lags behind the strong warming and will remain slow in the upcoming decades.
Rasoul Yousefpour, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 16, 241–254,Short summary
Global forest resources are accounted for to establish their potential to sink carbon in woody biomass. Climate prediction models realize the effects of future global forest utilization rates, defined by population demand and its evolution over time. However, forest management approaches consider the supply side to realize a sustainable forest carbon stock and adapt the harvest rates to novel climate conditions. This study simulates such an adaptive sustained yield approach.
Terhikki Manninen, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Kristin Böttcher, Sari Metsämäki, Kati Anttila, Pentti Pirinen, Antti Leppänen, and Ali Nadir Arslan
Biogeosciences, 16, 223–240,Short summary
The surface albedo time series CLARA-A2 SAL was used to study trends in the timing of the melting season of snow and preceding albedo value in Finland during 1982–2016 to assess climate change. The results were in line with operational snow depth data, JSBACH land ecosystem model, SYKE fractional snow cover and greening-up data. In the north a clear trend to earlier snowmelt onset, increasing melting season length, and decrease in pre-melt albedo (related to increased stem volume) was observed.
Yuan Meng, Zhenbin Guo, Susan C. Fitzer, Abhishek Upadhyay, Vera B. S. Chan, Chaoyi Li, Maggie Cusack, Haimin Yao, Kelvin W. K. Yeung, and Vengatesen Thiyagarajan
Biogeosciences, 15, 6833–6846,Short summary
The paper revealed a potential structural deterioration induced by ocean acidification on the shells of an ecologically and economically important oyster, which is critical to forecasting the survival and production of edible oysters in the future ocean. Importantly, this is a multidisciplinary collaboration including aquaculture, crystallography, medical and materials science, which could be applied to other biomineral systems to hierarchically analyse the impact of ocean acidification.
Dominik Thom, Werner Rammer, Rita Garstenauer, and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 15, 5699–5713,Short summary
Over the past decades temperate forests were a carbon (C) sink to the atmosphere. Yet the drivers of C uptake and how these affect the future carbon cycle remain uncertain. Our simulation and study revealed that the future C sink of central European forest landscapes is strongly driven by historic land use, while climate change reduces forest C uptake. Compared to land-use change, past natural disturbances (wind and bark beetles) have only marginal effects on the future carbon cycle.
Michael M. Loranty, Benjamin W. Abbott, Daan Blok, Thomas A. Douglas, Howard E. Epstein, Bruce C. Forbes, Benjamin M. Jones, Alexander L. Kholodov, Heather Kropp, Avni Malhotra, Steven D. Mamet, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Susan M. Natali, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Gareth K. Phoenix, Adrian V. Rocha, Oliver Sonnentag, Ken D. Tape, and Donald A. Walker
Biogeosciences, 15, 5287–5313,Short summary
Vegetation and soils strongly influence ground temperature in permafrost ecosystems across the Arctic and sub-Arctic. These effects will cause differences rates of permafrost thaw related to the distribution of tundra and boreal forests. As the distribution of forests and tundra change, the effects of climate change on permafrost will also change. We review the ecosystem processes that will influence permafrost thaw and outline how they will feed back to climate warming.
Aisling Fontanini, Alexandra Steckbauer, Sam Dupont, and Carlos M. Duarte
Biogeosciences, 15, 3717–3729,Short summary
Invertebrate species of the Gullmar Fjord (Sweden) were exposed to four different treatments (high/low oxygen and low/high CO2) and respiration measured. Respiration responses of species of contrasting habitats and life-history strategies to single and multiple stressors was evaluated. Results show that the responses of the respiration were highly species specific as we observed both synergetic as well as antagonistic responses, and neither phylum nor habitat explained trends in respiration.
Jie Wang, Bayden D. Russell, Meng-Wen Ding, and Yun-Wei Dong
Biogeosciences, 15, 2803–2817,Short summary
To understand ecological impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification and temperature rise, a key question is if organisms become more vulnerable under multiple stressors. Here we tested heart rate and gene expression levels of a limpet under varying pCO2 and temperature. Results showed that while many individuals are more vulnerable to heat stress under high CO2 and increased temperature, some animals have the ability to alter their physiology to help them survive under future conditions.
Ting Liu, Liang Wang, Xiaojuan Feng, Jinbo Zhang, Tian Ma, Xin Wang, and Zongguang Liu
Biogeosciences, 15, 1627–1641,Short summary
Compared to the respiration process, few studies have examined soil carbon leaching possibly enhanced by extreme precipitation events (EPEs). We show that soil carbon leaching was much higher than CO2 loss through respiration under EPEs in grassland soils through incubation experiments. The soil carbon leaching process should be incorporated into soil carbon models when estimating carbon balance in grassland ecosystems, especially considering the projected increase in EPEs with climate change.
Justine L. Ramage, Anna M. Irrgang, Anne Morgenstern, and Hugues Lantuit
Biogeosciences, 15, 1483–1495,Short summary
We describe the evolution of thaw slumps between 1952 and 2011 along the Yukon Coast, Canada, and calculate the contribution of the slumps to the carbon budget in this area. The number of slumps has increased by 73 % over the period. These slumps displaced more than 16 billion m3 of material and mobilized 146 t of carbon. This represents 0.6 % of the annual carbon flux released from shoreline retreat, which shows that the contribution of slumps to the nearshore carbon budget is non-negligible.
Emeline Chaste, Martin P. Girardin, Jed O. Kaplan, Jeanne Portier, Yves Bergeron, and Christelle Hély
Biogeosciences, 15, 1273–1292,Short summary
A vegetation model was used to reconstruct fire activity from 1901 to 2012 in relation to changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation in eastern Canada's boreal forest. The model correctly simulated the history of fire activity. The results showed that fire activity is ignition limited but is also greatly affected by both climate and vegetation. This research aims to develop a vegetation model that could be used to predict the future impacts of climate changes on fire activity.
Rong Bi, Stefanie M. H. Ismar, Ulrich Sommer, and Meixun Zhao
Biogeosciences, 15, 1029–1045,Short summary
We observed that N : P supply ratios had the strongest effect on C : N : P stoichiometry, while temperature and pCO2 played more influential roles on PIC : POC and polyunsaturated fatty acid proportions in Emiliania huxleyi. Synergistic interactions indicated the enhanced effect of warming under nutrient deficiency and high pCO2. Simultaneous changes of elements and fatty acids should be considered when predicting future roles of E. huxleyi in biogeochemical cycles and ecological functions.
Wenmin Zhang, Martin Brandt, Xiaoye Tong, Qingjiu Tian, and Rasmus Fensholt
Biogeosciences, 15, 319–330,
Lei Jiang, You-Fang Sun, Yu-Yang Zhang, Guo-Wei Zhou, Xiu-Bao Li, Laurence J. McCook, Jian-Sheng Lian, Xin-Ming Lei, Sheng Liu, Lin Cai, Pei-Yuan Qian, and Hui Huang
Biogeosciences, 14, 5741–5752,Short summary
The negative effects of elevated temperature (31 °C) on larval settlement of P. damicornis was greatly tempered by diurnal temperature fluctuations, whilst diel oscillations in temperature reduced the heat stress on photo-physiology of coral recruits. Although elevated temperature greatly stimulated the growth of recruits, the daytime encounters with the maximum temperature of 33 °C in the fluctuating treatment elicited a notable reduction in calcification.
Siv K. Lauvset, Jerry Tjiputra, and Helene Muri
Biogeosciences, 14, 5675–5691,Short summary
Solar radiation management (SRM) is suggested as a method to offset global warming and to buy time to reduce emissions. Here we use an Earth system model to project the impact of SRM on future ocean biogeochemistry. This work underscores the complexity of climate impacts on ocean primary production and highlights the fact that changes are driven by an integrated effect of many environmental drivers, which all change in different ways.
Aldersley, A., Murray, S. J., and Cornell, S. E.: Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire, Sci. Total Environ., 409, 3472–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032, 2011.
Andreae, M. O. and Merlet, P.: Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 955, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GB001382, 2001.
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Bistinas, I., Oom, D., Sa, A., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, C. I., and Pereira, J. M. C.: Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales, PLoS One, 8, e81188, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081188, 2013.
Bistinas, I., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., and Pereira, J. M. C.: Causal relationships versus emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency, Biogeosciences, 11, 5087–5101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5087-2014, 2014.
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J. K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Carlson, J. M., Cochrane, M. A., D'Antonio, C. M., Defries, R. S., Doyle, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., Kull, C. A., Marston, J. B., Moritz, M. A., Prentice, I. C., Roos, C. I., Scott, A. C., Swetnam, T. W., van der Werf, G. R., and Pyne, S. J.: Fire in the Earth system., Science, 324, 481–484, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1163886, 2009.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007.
Bragg, F. J., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Eglinton, G., Foster, P. N., Rommerskirchen, F., and Rullkötter, J.: Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa, Biogeosciences, 10, 2001–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2001-2013, 2013.
Ciais, P., Tagliabue, A., Cuntz, M., Bopp, L., Scholze, M., Hoffmann, G., Lourantou, A., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Kelley, D. I., Koven, C., and Piao, S. L.: Large inert carbon pool in the terrestrial biosphere during the Last Glacial Maximum, Nat. Geosci., 5, 74–79, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1324, 2011.
Cowling, S. A.: Plants and temperature–CO2 Uncoupling, Science, 285, 1500–1501, 1999.
Dale, V. H., Joyce, L. A., McNulty, S., and Neilson, R. P.: The interplay between climate change, forests, and disturbances, Sci. Total Environ., 262, 201–204, 2000.
Daniau, A.-L., Harrison, S. P., and Bartlein, P. J.: Fire regimes during the Last Glacial, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2918–2930, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.008, 2010.
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Denman, K. L., Brasseur, G., Chidthaisong, A., Ciais, P., Cox, P. M., Dickinson, R. E., Hauglustaine, D., Heinze, C., Holland, E., Jacob, D., Lohmann, U., Ramachandran, S., da Silva Dias, P. L., Wofsy, S. C., and Zhang, X.: Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 500–587, 2007.
Farquhar, G. D.: Carbon dioxide and vegetation, Science, 278, 1411, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.278.5342.1411, 1997.
Flannigan, M. D., Stocks, B. J., and Wotton, B. M.: Climate change and forest fires, Sci. Total Environ., 262, 221–229, 2000.
Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S.: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance – hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 286, 249–270, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.029, 2004.
Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., Collatz, G. J., Morton, D. C., and DeFries, R. S.: Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products, Biogeosciences, 7, 1171–1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1171-2010, 2010.
Harrison, S. P. and Prentice, C. I.: Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 983–1004, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00640.x, 2003.
Harrison, S. P., Marlon, J. R., and Bartlein, P. J.: Fire in the Earth System, in: Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society, edited by: Dodson, J., Springer Netherlands, 189–199, 2010.
Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Brewer, S., Prentice, I. C., Boyd, M., Hessler, I., Holmgren, K., Izumi, K., and Willis, K.: Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates, Clim. Dynam., 43, 671–688, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6, 2014.
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