Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jan 2015
Research article |
| 20 Jan 2015
Coincidences of climate extremes and anomalous vegetation responses: comparing tree ring patterns to simulated productivity
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
M. Wiedermann
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
J. F. Donges
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
F. Babst
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E Lowell St, Tucson AZ 85721, USA
W. von Bloh
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
D. Frank
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstr. 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
K. Thonicke
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
M. D. Mahecha
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
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Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
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Jannis von Buttlar, Jakob Zscheischler, Anja Rammig, Sebastian Sippel, Markus Reichstein, Alexander Knohl, Martin Jung, Olaf Menzer, M. Altaf Arain, Nina Buchmann, Alessandro Cescatti, Damiano Gianelle, Gerard Kiely, Beverly E. Law, Vincenzo Magliulo, Hank Margolis, Harry McCaughey, Lutz Merbold, Mirco Migliavacca, Leonardo Montagnani, Walter Oechel, Marian Pavelka, Matthias Peichl, Serge Rambal, Antonio Raschi, Russell L. Scott, Francesco P. Vaccari, Eva van Gorsel, Andrej Varlagin, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, 2018
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Our work systematically quantifies extreme heat and drought event impacts on gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration globally across a wide range of ecosystems. We show that heat extremes typically increased mainly respiration whereas drought decreased both fluxes. Combined heat and drought extremes had opposing effects offsetting each other for respiration, but there were also strong reductions in GPP and hence the strongest reductions in the ecosystems carbon sink capacity.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
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We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Fanny Langerwisch, Ariane Walz, Anja Rammig, Britta Tietjen, Kirsten Thonicke, and Wolfgang Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 953–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, 2016
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Amazonia is heavily impacted by climate change and deforestation. During annual flooding terrigenous material is imported to the river, converted and finally exported to the ocean or the atmosphere. Changes in the vegetation alter therefore riverine carbon dynamics. Our results show that due to deforestation organic carbon amount will strongly decrease both in the river and exported to the ocean, while inorganic carbon amounts will increase, in the river as well as exported to the atmosphere.
F. Langerwisch, A. Walz, A. Rammig, B. Tietjen, K. Thonicke, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 559–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, 2016
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In Amazonia, carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding. We applied the newly developed model RivCM to several climate change scenarios to estimate potential changes in riverine carbon. We find that climate change causes substantial changes in riverine organic and inorganic carbon, as well as changes in carbon exported to the atmosphere and ocean. Such changes could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
S. Rolinski, A. Rammig, A. Walz, W. von Bloh, M. van Oijen, and K. Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 12, 1813–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, 2015
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Extreme weather events can but do not have to cause extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions.
We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment and apply it to terrestrial ecosystems, defining a hazard as negative net biome productivity. In Europe, ecosystems are vulnerable to drought in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas vulnerability in Scandinavia is not caused by water shortages.
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, 2014
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We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, 2024
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Climate change has increased the likelihood of drought events across Europe, potentially threatening European forest carbon sink. Dynamic vegetation models with mechanistic plant hydraulic architecture are needed to model these developments. We evaluate the plant hydraulic architecture version of LPJ-GUESS and show it's capability at capturing species-specific evapotranspiration responses to drought and reproducing flux observations of both gross primary production and evapotranspiration.
Francesco Martinuzzi, Miguel D. Mahecha, Gustau Camps-Valls, David Montero, Tristan Williams, and Karin Mora
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 535–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-535-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-535-2024, 2024
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We investigated how machine learning can forecast extreme vegetation responses to weather. Examining four models, no single one stood out as the best, though "echo state networks" showed minor advantages. Our results indicate that while these tools are able to generally model vegetation states, they face challenges under extreme conditions. This underlines the potential of artificial intelligence in ecosystem modeling, also pinpointing areas that need further research.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Olivier Bouriaud, Ernst-Detlef Schulze, Konstantin Gregor, Issam Bourkhris, Peter Högberg, Roland Irslinger, Phillip Papastefanou, Julia Pongratz, Anja Rammig, Riccardo Valentini, and Christian Körner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, 2024
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The impact of harvesting on forests' carbon sink capacities is debated. One view is that their sink strength is resilient to harvesting, the other that it disrupts these capacities. Our work shows that leaf area index (LAI) has been overlooked in this discussion. We found that temperate forests' carbon uptake is largely insensitive to variations in LAI beyond about 4 m² m-², but that forests operate at higher levels.
Anca Anghelea, Ewelina Dobrowolska, Gunnar Brandt, Martin Reinhardt, Miguel Mahecha, Tejas Morbagal Harish, and Stephan Meissl
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-2024, 13–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-2024-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-2024-13-2024, 2024
Mélanie Weynants, Chaonan Ji, Nora Linscheid, Ulrich Weber, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Fabian Gans
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-396, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Climate extremes are intensifying. The impacts of heatwaves and droughts can be made worse when they happen at the same time. Dheed is a global database of dry and hot compound extreme events from 1950 to 2022. It can be combined with other data to study the impacts of those events on terrestrial ecosystems, specific species or human societies. Dheed's analysis confirms that extremely dry and hot days have become more common on all continents in recent decades, especially in Europe and Africa.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
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Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, 2024
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Social norms are a major influence on human behaviour. In natural resource use models, norms are often included in a simplistic way leading to "black or white" sustainability outcomes. We find that a dynamic representation of norms, including social groups, determines more nuanced states of the environment in a stylized model of resource use, while also defining the success of attempts to manage the system, suggesting the importance of well representing both in coupled models.
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
Mateus Dantas de Paula, Matthew Forrest, David Warlind, João Paulo Darela Filho, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, and Thomas Hickler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2592, 2024
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Our study maps global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability and how they’ve changed from 1901 to 2018. We found that tropical regions are mostly P-limited, while temperate and boreal areas face N limitations. Over time, P limitation has increased, especially in the tropics, while N limitation has decreased. These shifts are key to understanding global plant growth and carbon storage, highlighting the importance of including P dynamics in ecosystem models.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Guido Kraemer, and Fabio Crameri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1153–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1153-2024, 2024
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Our paper examines the visual representation of the planetary boundary concept, which helps convey Earth's capacity to sustain human life. We identify three issues: exaggerated impact sizes, confusing color patterns, and inaccessibility for colour-vision deficiency. These flaws can lead to overstating risks. We suggest improving these visual elements for more accurate and accessible information for decision-makers.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, 2024
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An interdisciplinary collaboration of 35 international researchers from 34 institutions highlighting nine recent findings in biosphere research. Within these themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. They discuss recent findings in the context of global trade and international policy frameworks, and highlight lessons for local implementation of nature-based solutions.
Luke Oberhagemann, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Matthew Forrest, Simon P. K. Bowring, Jessica Hetzer, Jaime Ribalaygua Batalla, and Kirsten Thonicke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1914, 2024
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Under climate change, the conditions for wildfires to form are becoming more frequent in many parts of the world. To help predict how wildfires will change in future, global fire models are being developed. We analyze and further develop one such model, SPITFIRE. Our work identifies and corrects sources of substantial bias in the model that are important to the global fire modelling field. With this analysis and these developments, we help to provide a crucial platform for future developments.
Matthew Forrest, Jessica Hetzer, Maik Billing, Simon P. K. Bowring, Eric Kosczor, Luke Oberhagemann, Oliver Perkins, Dan Warren, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Kirsten Thonicke, and Thomas Hickler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1973, 2024
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Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe but drivers of fire are not well understood, especially across different land cover types. We used statistical models with satellite data, climate data and socioeconomic data to determine what affects burning in cropland and non-cropland area Europe. We found different drivers of burning in cropland burning vs non-cropland, to the point that some variable, e.g. population density, had completely the opposite effects.
Francesco Martinuzzi, Miguel D. Mahecha, David Montero, Lazaro Alonso, and Karin Mora
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W12-2024, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-89-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-89-2024, 2024
David Montero, Miguel D. Mahecha, César Aybar, Clemens Mosig, and Sebastian Wieneke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W12-2024, 105–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-105-2024, 2024
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
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We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Lucia S. Layritz, Konstantin Gregor, Andreas Krause, Stefan Kruse, Ben F. Meyer, Tom A. M. Pugh, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, 2024
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Disturbances (e.g. fire) can change which species grow in a forest, affecting water, carbon, energy flows, and the climate. They are expected to increase with climate change, but it is uncertain by how much. We studied how future climate and disturbances might impact vegetation with a simulation model. Our findings highlight the importance of considering both factors, with future disturbance patterns posing significant uncertainty. More research is needed to understand their future development.
Markus Drüke, Wolfgang Lucht, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Arne Tobian, Sina Loriani, Sibyll Schaphoff, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 467–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, 2024
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The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization of the Earth system. We use the comprehensive Earth system model POEM to study the impact of the interacting boundaries for climate change and land system change. Our study shows the importance of long-term effects on carbon dynamics and climate, as well as the need to investigate both boundaries simultaneously and to generally keep both boundaries within acceptable ranges to avoid a catastrophic scenario for humanity.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
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Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Benjamin F. Meyer, Allan Buras, Konstantin Gregor, Lucia S. Layritz, Adriana Principe, Jürgen Kreyling, Anja Rammig, and Christian S. Zang
Biogeosciences, 21, 1355–1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1355-2024, 2024
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Late-spring frost (LSF), critically low temperatures when trees have already flushed their leaves, results in freezing damage leaving trees with reduced ability to perform photosynthesis. Forests with a high proportion of susceptible species like European beech are particularly vulnerable. However, this process is rarely included in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). We show that the effect on simulated productivity and biomass is substantial, warranting more widespread inclusion of LSF in DVMs.
João Paulo Darela-Filho, Anja Rammig, Katrin Fleischer, Tatiana Reichert, Laynara Figueiredo Lugli, Carlos Alberto Quesada, Luis Carlos Colocho Hurtarte, Mateus Dantas de Paula, and David M. Lapola
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 715–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-715-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-715-2024, 2024
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Phosphorus (P) is crucial for plant growth, and scientists have created models to study how it interacts with carbon cycle in ecosystems. To apply these models, it is important to know the distribution of phosphorus in soil. In this study we estimated the distribution of phosphorus in the Amazon region. The results showed a clear gradient of soil development and P content. These maps can help improve ecosystem models and generate new hypotheses about phosphorus availability in the Amazon.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
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This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
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In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Jordan Paul Everall, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241, 2023
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A social tipping process is a rapid, large change in society, and can be started by few people. Does the 80/20 rule apply here? We see if this is the case for human social groups. We find that if so then it occurs when around 25 % of people engage. Tipping seems generally possible in the range of around 10 % to 40 % of the population, with most systems having tipped by the 40 % mark. When people don't change so easily, trusting groups of friends and housemates can help convince wayward friends.
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622, 2023
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Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can developed via enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea-level rise). The likelihood for social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with highest exposure to persistent risks.
Jennifer A. Holm, David M. Medvigy, Benjamin Smith, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Claus Beier, Mikhail Mishurov, Xiangtao Xu, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Craig D. Allen, Klaus S. Larsen, Yiqi Luo, Cari Ficken, William T. Pockman, William R. L. Anderegg, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 20, 2117–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, 2023
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Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Jenny Niebsch, Werner von Bloh, Kirsten Thonicke, and Ronny Ramlau
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-17-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-17-2023, 2023
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The impacts of climate change require strategies for climate adaptation. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to study the effects of multiple processes in the biosphere under climate change. There is a demand for a better computational performance of the models. In this paper, the photosynthesis model in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land DGVM (4.0.002) was examined. We found a better numerical solution of a nonlinear equation. A significant run time reduction was possible.
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Alexander J. Winkler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1505–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, 2022
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Quantifying the imprint of large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and associated carbon cycle responses is key to improving our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics. Using a statistical model that relies on spatiotemporal sea level pressure as a proxy for large-scale atmospheric circulation, we quantify the fraction of interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and the land CO2 sink that are driven by atmospheric circulation variability.
Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6495–6519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, 2022
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Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyzed these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water, mortality, and climate, with an increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
Phillip Papastefanou, Christian S. Zang, Zlatan Angelov, Aline Anderson de Castro, Juan Carlos Jimenez, Luiz Felipe Campos De Rezende, Romina C. Ruscica, Boris Sakschewski, Anna A. Sörensson, Kirsten Thonicke, Carolina Vera, Nicolas Viovy, Celso Von Randow, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 19, 3843–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, 2022
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The Amazon rainforest has been hit by multiple severe drought events. In this study, we assess the severity and spatial extent of the extreme drought years 2005, 2010 and 2015/16 in the Amazon. Using nine different precipitation datasets and three drought indicators we find large differences in drought stress across the Amazon region. We conclude that future studies should use multiple rainfall datasets and drought indicators when estimating the impact of drought stress in the Amazon region.
D. Montero, C. Aybar, M. D. Mahecha, and S. Wieneke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W1-2022, 301–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W1-2022-301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W1-2022-301-2022, 2022
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
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The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
J. Pacheco-Labrador, U. Weber, X. Ma, M. D. Mahecha, N. Carvalhais, C. Wirth, A. Huth, F. J. Bohn, G. Kraemer, U. Heiden, FunDivEUROPE members, and M. Migliavacca
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVI-1-W1-2021, 49–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-1-W1-2021-49-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-1-W1-2021-49-2022, 2022
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021
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Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and for carbon storage. In Europe, forests are intensively managed. To understand how management influences carbon storage in European forests, we implement detailed forest management into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We test the model by comparing model output to typical forestry measures, such as growing stock and harvest data, for different countries in Europe.
Boris Sakschewski, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Anna Amelia Sörensson, Romina Ruscica, Fanny Langerwisch, Maik Billing, Sarah Bereswill, Marina Hirota, Rafael Silva Oliveira, Jens Heinke, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 18, 4091–4116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4091-2021, 2021
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This study shows how local adaptations of tree roots across tropical and sub-tropical South America explain patterns of biome distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration on this continent. By allowing for high diversity of tree rooting strategies in a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), we are able to mechanistically explain patterns of mean rooting depth and the effects on ecosystem functions. The approach can advance DGVMs and Earth system models.
Markus Drüke, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Willem Huiskamp, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4117–4141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, 2021
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In this study, we couple the well-established and comprehensively validated state-of-the-art dynamic LPJmL5 global vegetation model to the CM2Mc coupled climate model (CM2Mc-LPJmL v.1.0). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. The new climate model is able to capture important biospheric processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling and the the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation).
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
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In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Gilvan Sampaio, Marília H. Shimizu, Carlos A. Guimarães-Júnior, Felipe Alexandre, Marcelo Guatura, Manoel Cardoso, Tomas F. Domingues, Anja Rammig, Celso von Randow, Luiz F. C. Rezende, and David M. Lapola
Biogeosciences, 18, 2511–2525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, 2021
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The impact of large-scale deforestation and the physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on Amazon rainfall are systematically compared in this study. Our results are remarkable in showing that the two disturbances cause equivalent rainfall decrease, though through different causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of not only curbing regional deforestation but also reducing global CO2 emissions to avoid climatic changes in the Amazon.
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
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Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Christopher Krich, Mirco Migliavacca, Diego G. Miralles, Guido Kraemer, Tarek S. El-Madany, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Runge, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 2379–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, 2021
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Ecosystems and the atmosphere interact with each other. These interactions determine e.g. the water and carbon fluxes and thus are crucial to understand climate change effects. We analysed the interactions for many ecosystems across the globe, showing that very different ecosystems can have similar interactions with the atmosphere. Meteorological conditions seem to be the strongest interaction-shaping factor. This means that common principles can be identified to describe ecosystem behaviour.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
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Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Milan Flach, Alexander Brenning, Fabian Gans, Markus Reichstein, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, 2021
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Drought and heat events affect the uptake and sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We study the impact of droughts and heatwaves on the uptake of CO2 of different vegetation types at the global scale. We find that agricultural areas are generally strongly affected. Forests instead are not particularly sensitive to the events under scrutiny. This implies different water management strategies of forests but also a lack of sensitivity to remote-sensing-derived vegetation activity.
Daniel E. Pabon-Moreno, Talie Musavi, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, Christine Römermann, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 3991–4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, 2020
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Ecosystem CO2 uptake changes in time depending on climate conditions. In this study, we analyze how different climate variables affect the timing when CO2 uptake is at a maximum (DOYGPPmax). We found that the joint effects of radiation, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit are the most relevant controlling factors of DOYGPPmax and that if they increase, DOYGPPmax will happen earlier. These results help us to better understand how CO2 uptake could be affected by climate change.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Guido Kraemer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Markus Reichstein, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 2397–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2397-2020, 2020
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To closely monitor the state of our planet, we require systems that can monitor
the observation of many different properties at the same time. We create
indicators that resemble the behavior of many different simultaneous
observations. We apply the method to create indicators representing the
Earth's biosphere. The indicators show a productivity gradient and a water
gradient. The resulting indicators can detect a large number of changes and
extremes in the Earth system.
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020
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We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Allan Buras, Anja Rammig, and Christian S. Zang
Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020
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This study compares the climatic conditions and ecosystem response of the extreme European drought of 2018 with the previous extreme drought of 2003. Using gridded climate data and satellite-based remote sensing information, our analyses qualify 2018 as the new European record drought with wide-ranging negative impacts on European ecosystems. Given the observation of forest-legacy effects in 2019 we call for Europe-wide forest monitoring to assess forest vulnerability to climate change.
Christopher Krich, Jakob Runge, Diego G. Miralles, Mirco Migliavacca, Oscar Perez-Priego, Tarek El-Madany, Arnaud Carrara, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 1033–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, 2020
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Causal inference promises new insight into biosphere–atmosphere interactions using time series only. To understand the behaviour of a specific method on such data, we used artificial and observation-based data. The observed structures are very interpretable and reveal certain ecosystem-specific behaviour, as only a few relevant links remain, in contrast to pure correlation techniques. Thus, causal inference allows to us gain well-constrained insights into processes and interactions.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Nora Linscheid, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Alexander Brenning, Nuno Carvalhais, Felix Cremer, Fabian Gans, Anja Rammig, Markus Reichstein, Carlos A. Sierra, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 945–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, 2020
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Vegetation typically responds to variation in temperature and rainfall within days. Yet seasonal changes in meteorological conditions, as well as decadal climate variability, additionally shape the state of ecosystems. It remains unclear how vegetation responds to climate variability on these different timescales. We find that the vegetation response to climate variability depends on the timescale considered. This scale dependency should be considered for modeling land–atmosphere interactions.
Markus Drüke, Matthias Forkel, Werner von Bloh, Boris Sakschewski, Manoel Cardoso, Mercedes Bustamante, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5029–5054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019, 2019
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This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the implementation of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model. We have demonstrated a major improvement in the fire representation within LPJmL4-SPITFIRE in terms of the spatial pattern and the interannual variability of burned area in South America as well as in the modelling of biomass and the distribution of plant types.
Kirsten Thonicke, Fanny Langerwisch, Matthias Baumann, Pedro J. Leitão, Tomáš Václavík, Ane Alencar, Margareth Simões, Simon Scheiter, Liam Langan, Mercedes Bustamante, Ignacio Gasparri, Marina Hirota, Jan Börner, Raoni Rajao, Britaldo Soares-Filho, Alberto Yanosky, José-Manuel Ochoa-Quinteiro, Lucas Seghezzo, Georgina Conti, and Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-221, 2019
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Tropical dry forests and savannas harbor unique biodiversity and provide critical ecosystem services (ES), yet they are under severe pressure globally. We need to improve our understanding of how and when this pressure provokes tipping points in biodiversity and the associated social-ecological systems. We propose an approach to investigate how drivers leading to natural vegetation decline trigger biodiversity tipping and illustrate it using the example of the Dry Diagonal in South America.
Femke Lutz, Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2419–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, 2019
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Tillage practices are under-represented in global biogeochemical models so that assessments of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and climate mitigation options are hampered. We describe the implementation of tillage modules into the model LPJmL5.0, including multiple feedbacks between soil water, nitrogen, and productivity. By comparing simulation results with observational data, we show that the model can reproduce reported tillage effects on carbon and water dynamics and crop yields.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
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We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Milan Flach, Sebastian Sippel, Fabian Gans, Ana Bastos, Alexander Brenning, Markus Reichstein, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 6067–6085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, 2018
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Northern forests enhanced their productivity during and before the 2010 Russian mega heatwave. We scrutinize this issue with a novel type of multivariate extreme event detection approach. Forests compensate for 54 % of the carbon losses in agricultural ecosystems due to vulnerable conditions in spring and better water management in summer. The findings highlight the importance of forests in mitigating climate change, while not alleviating the consequences of extreme events for food security.
Paul Bodesheim, Martin Jung, Fabian Gans, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1327–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1327-2018, 2018
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We provide continuous half-hourly carbon and energy fluxes for 2001 to 2014 at 0.5° spatial resolution, which allows for analyzing diurnal cycles globally. The data set contains four fluxes: gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat (LE), and sensible heat (H). In addition, we provide a derived product that only contains monthly average diurnal cycles but which also enables us to study the important characteristics of subdaily patterns at a global scale.
Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Katharina Waha, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2789–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle are of central importance for Earth system science. Nutrient limitations, especially from nitrogen, are important constraints on vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon cycle. We extended the well-established global vegetation, hydrology, and crop model LPJmL with a nitrogen cycle. We find significant improvement in global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity can now be largely reproduced by the model.
Steven J. Lade, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, John M. Anderies, Christian Beer, Sarah E. Cornell, Thomas Gasser, Jon Norberg, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, and Will Steffen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, 2018
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Around half of the carbon that humans emit into the atmosphere each year is taken up on land (by trees) and in the ocean (by absorption). We construct a simple model of carbon uptake that, unlike the complex models that are usually used, can be analysed mathematically. Our results include that changes in atmospheric carbon may affect future carbon uptake more than changes in climate. Our simple model could also study mechanisms that are currently too uncertain for complex models.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, Hester Biemans, Matthias Forkel, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jürgen Knauer, Fanny Langerwisch, Wolfgang Lucht, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive model description of a global terrestrial biosphere model, named LPJmL4, incorporating the carbon and water cycle and the quantification of agricultural production. The model allows for the consistent and joint quantification of climate and land use change impacts on the biosphere. The model represents the key ecosystem functions, but also the influence of humans on the biosphere. It comes with an evaluation paper to demonstrate the credibility of LPJmL4.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Christoph Müller, Jürgen Knauer, Werner von Bloh, Dieter Gerten, Jonas Jägermeyr, Wolfgang Lucht, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1377–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the now launched version 4.0 of the LPJmL biosphere, water, and agricultural model. The article is the second part to a comprehensive description of the LPJmL4 model. We have evaluated the model against various datasets of satellite observations, agricultural statistics, and in situ measurements by applying a range of metrics. We are able to show that the LPJmL4 model simulates many parameters and relations reasonably.
Jannis von Buttlar, Jakob Zscheischler, Anja Rammig, Sebastian Sippel, Markus Reichstein, Alexander Knohl, Martin Jung, Olaf Menzer, M. Altaf Arain, Nina Buchmann, Alessandro Cescatti, Damiano Gianelle, Gerard Kiely, Beverly E. Law, Vincenzo Magliulo, Hank Margolis, Harry McCaughey, Lutz Merbold, Mirco Migliavacca, Leonardo Montagnani, Walter Oechel, Marian Pavelka, Matthias Peichl, Serge Rambal, Antonio Raschi, Russell L. Scott, Francesco P. Vaccari, Eva van Gorsel, Andrej Varlagin, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, 2018
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Our work systematically quantifies extreme heat and drought event impacts on gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration globally across a wide range of ecosystems. We show that heat extremes typically increased mainly respiration whereas drought decreased both fluxes. Combined heat and drought extremes had opposing effects offsetting each other for respiration, but there were also strong reductions in GPP and hence the strongest reductions in the ecosystems carbon sink capacity.
Susanne Rolinski, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, Isabelle Weindl, Anne Biewald, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Alberte Bondeau, Eltje R. Boons-Prins, Alexander F. Bouwman, Peter A. Leffelaar, Johnny A. te Roller, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, 2018
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One-third of the global land area is covered with grasslands which are grazed by or mowed for livestock feed. These areas contribute significantly to the carbon capture from the atmosphere when managed sensibly. To assess the effect of this management, we included different options of grazing and mowing into the global model LPJmL 3.6. We found in polar regions even low grazing pressure leads to soil carbon loss whereas in temperate regions up to 1.4 livestock units per hectare can be sustained.
Matthias Forkel, Wouter Dorigo, Gitta Lasslop, Irene Teubner, Emilio Chuvieco, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4443–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, 2017
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Wildfires affect infrastructures, vegetation, and the atmosphere. However, it is unclear how fires should be accurately represented in global vegetation models. We introduce here a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach that allows us to explore sensitivities of burned areas to satellite and climate datasets. Our results suggest combining observations with data-driven and process-oriented fire models to better understand the role of fires in the Earth system.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Finn Müller-Hansen, Maja Schlüter, Michael Mäs, Jonathan F. Donges, Jakob J. Kolb, Kirsten Thonicke, and Jobst Heitzig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 977–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, 2017
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Today, human interactions with the Earth system lead to complex feedbacks between social and ecological dynamics. Modeling such feedbacks explicitly in Earth system models (ESMs) requires making assumptions about individual decision making and behavior, social interaction, and their aggregation. In this overview paper, we compare different modeling approaches and techniques and highlight important consequences of modeling assumptions. We illustrate them with examples from land-use modeling.
Iulia Ilie, Peter Dittrich, Nuno Carvalhais, Martin Jung, Andreas Heinemeyer, Mirco Migliavacca, James I. L. Morison, Sebastian Sippel, Jens-Arne Subke, Matthew Wilkinson, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3519–3545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3519-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3519-2017, 2017
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Accurate representation of land-atmosphere carbon fluxes is essential for future climate projections, although some of the responses of CO2 fluxes to climate often remain uncertain. The increase in available data allows for new approaches in their modelling. We automatically developed models for ecosystem and soil carbon respiration using a machine learning approach. When compared with established respiration models, we found that they are better in prediction as well as offering new insights.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
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We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
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Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
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Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Rene Orth, Markus Reichstein, Martha Vogel, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 387–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017, 2017
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The present study (1) evaluates land–atmosphere coupling in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble against an ensemble of benchmarking datasets and (2) refines the model ensemble using a land–atmosphere coupling diagnostic as constraint. Our study demonstrates that a considerable fraction of coupled climate models overemphasize warm-season
moisture-limitedclimate regimes in midlatitude regions. This leads to biases in daily-scale temperature extremes, which are alleviated in a constrained ensemble.
Wolfram Barfuss, Jonathan F. Donges, Marc Wiedermann, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 255–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-255-2017, 2017
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Human societies depend on the resources ecosystems provide. We study this coevolutionary relationship by utilizing a stylized model of resource users on a social network. This model demonstrates that social–cultural processes can have a profound influence on the environmental state, such as determining whether the resources collapse from overuse or not. This suggests that social–cultural processes should receive more attention in the modeling of sustainability transitions and the Earth system.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Finn Müller-Hansen, Manoel F. Cardoso, Eloi L. Dalla-Nora, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, 2017
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Deforestation and subsequent land uses in the Brazilian Amazon have huge impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, local climate and biodiversity. To better understand these land-cover changes, we apply complex systems methods uncovering spatial patterns in regional transition probabilities between land-cover types, which we estimate using maps derived from satellite imagery. The results show clusters of similar land-cover dynamics and thus complement studies at the local scale.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Holger Lange, Miguel D. Mahecha, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, 2017
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The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
Fanny Langerwisch, Ariane Walz, Anja Rammig, Britta Tietjen, Kirsten Thonicke, and Wolfgang Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 953–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, 2016
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Amazonia is heavily impacted by climate change and deforestation. During annual flooding terrigenous material is imported to the river, converted and finally exported to the ocean or the atmosphere. Changes in the vegetation alter therefore riverine carbon dynamics. Our results show that due to deforestation organic carbon amount will strongly decrease both in the river and exported to the ocean, while inorganic carbon amounts will increase, in the river as well as exported to the atmosphere.
Vera Heck, Jonathan F. Donges, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016, 2016
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We assess the co-evolutionary dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle and societal interventions through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) with a conceptual model in a planetary boundary context. The focus on one planetary boundary alone may lead to navigating the Earth system out of the safe operating space due to transgression of other boundaries. The success of tCDR depends on the degree of anticipation of climate change, the potential tCDR rate and the underlying emission pathway.
Jonatan F. Siegmund, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, and Reik V. Donner
Biogeosciences, 13, 5541–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016, 2016
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In this study we systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of flowering of four shrub species across Germany by using event coincidence analysis. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies, highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. Additionally, the analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the fall preceding the flowering.
F. Langerwisch, A. Walz, A. Rammig, B. Tietjen, K. Thonicke, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 559–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, 2016
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In Amazonia, carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding. We applied the newly developed model RivCM to several climate change scenarios to estimate potential changes in riverine carbon. We find that climate change causes substantial changes in riverine organic and inorganic carbon, as well as changes in carbon exported to the atmosphere and ocean. Such changes could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
M. Fader, S. Shi, W. von Bloh, A. Bondeau, and W. Cramer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 953–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-953-2016, 2016
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At present, the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems (EICS). By 2080–2090 the region may face an increase in gross irrigation requirements (IRs) of up to 74 % due to climate change and population growth. EICS may be able to compensate to some degree these increases. Most countries in the northern and eastern Mediterranean have a high risk of not being able to meet future IRs due to water scarcity.
S. Sippel, F. E. L. Otto, M. Forkel, M. R. Allen, B. P. Guillod, M. Heimann, M. Reichstein, S. I. Seneviratne, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, 2016
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We introduce a novel technique to bias correct climate model output for impact simulations that preserves its physical consistency and multivariate structure. The methodology considerably improves the representation of extremes in climatic variables relative to conventional bias correction strategies. Illustrative simulations of biosphere–atmosphere carbon and water fluxes with a biosphere model (LPJmL) show that the novel technique can be usefully applied to drive climate impact models.
J. Heitzig, T. Kittel, J. F. Donges, and N. Molkenthin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 21–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-21-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-21-2016, 2016
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The debate about a safe and just operating space for humanity and the possible pathways towards and within it requires an analysis of the inherent dynamics of the Earth system and of the options for influencing its evolution. We present and illustrate with examples a conceptual framework for performing such an analysis not in a quantitative, optimizing mode, but in a qualitative way that emphasizes the main decision dilemmas that one may face in the sustainable management of the Earth system.
M. Fader, W. von Bloh, S. Shi, A. Bondeau, and W. Cramer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3545–3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3545-2015, 2015
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This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses.
The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With this development presented, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture.
T. Nocke, S. Buschmann, J. F. Donges, N. Marwan, H.-J. Schulz, and C. Tominski
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 545–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, 2015
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The paper reviews the available visualisation techniques and tools for the visual analysis of geo-physical climate networks. The results from a questionnaire with experts from non-linear physics are presented, and the paper surveys recent developments from information visualisation and cartography with respect to their applicability for visual climate network analytics. Several case studies based on own solutions illustrate the potentials of state-of-the-art network visualisation technology.
A. Y. Sun, J. Chen, and J. Donges
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 433–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-433-2015, 2015
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Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a key role in global water and energy cycles. This work applies complex climate networks to analyzing spatial patterns in TWS. A comparative analysis is conducted using a remotely sensed (GRACE) and a model-generated TWS data set. Our results reveal hotspots of TWS anomalies around the global land surfaces. Prospects are offered on using network connectivity as constraints to further improve current global land surface models.
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 11, 709–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, 2015
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Paleoclimate records from cave deposits allow the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of the Asian monsoon system, an important tipping element in Earth's climate. Employing recently developed techniques of nonlinear time series analysis reveals several robust and continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoonal variability. These regime shifts might have played an important role as drivers of migration, cultural change, and societal collapse during the past 10,000 years.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, and T. T. van Leeuwen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1321–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, 2015
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We conducted parallel simulations using a global land surface model, with and without fires being included, respectively. When the anthropogenic land cover change fire is excluded, we find that natural wildfires have reduced the global land carbon uptake by 0.3Pg C per year over 1901-2012. This is equivalent to 20% of the land carbon uptake in a world without fire. This fire-induced reduction in carbon uptake could be partly explained by climate variability, in particular the ENSO events.
S. Rolinski, A. Rammig, A. Walz, W. von Bloh, M. van Oijen, and K. Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 12, 1813–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, 2015
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Extreme weather events can but do not have to cause extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions.
We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment and apply it to terrestrial ecosystems, defining a hazard as negative net biome productivity. In Europe, ecosystems are vulnerable to drought in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas vulnerability in Scandinavia is not caused by water shortages.
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
M. Forkel, N. Carvalhais, S. Schaphoff, W. v. Bloh, M. Migliavacca, M. Thurner, and K. Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 11, 7025–7050, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7025-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7025-2014, 2014
M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, 2014
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We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, S. Archibald, B. Poulter, W. M. Hao, S. Hantson, F. Mouillot, P. Friedlingstein, F. Maignan, and N. Viovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014
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ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model could moderately capture the decadal trend and variation of burned area during the 20th century, and the spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary vegetation fires. The model has a better performance in simulating fires for regions dominated by climate-driven fires, such as boreal forests. However, it has limited capability to reproduce the infrequent but important large fires in different ecosystems, where urgent model improvement is needed in the future.
X. Wu, F. Babst, P. Ciais, D. Frank, M. Reichstein, M. Wattenbach, C. Zang, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 3057–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, 2014
J. Zscheischler, M. Reichstein, S. Harmeling, A. Rammig, E. Tomelleri, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 2909–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, 2014
P. Breitenmoser, S. Brönnimann, and D. Frank
Clim. Past, 10, 437–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-437-2014, 2014
J. v. Buttlar, J. Zscheischler, and M. D. Mahecha
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 203–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-203-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-203-2014, 2014
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function: Terrestrial
Crowd-sourced trait data can be used to delimit global biomes
Biomass yield potential, feedstock quality, and nutrient removal of perennial buffer strips under continuous zero fertilizer application
Leaf habit drives leaf nutrient resorption globally alongside nutrient availability and climate
Linking geomorphological processes and wildlife microhabitat selection: nesting birds select refuges generated by permafrost degradation in the Arctic
Distinguishing mature and immature trees allows estimating forest carbon uptake from stand structure
Enhancing environmental models with a new downscaling method for global radiation in complex terrain
“Blooming” of litter-mixing effects: the role of flower and leaf litter interactions on decomposition in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
From simple labels to semantic image segmentation: leveraging citizen science plant photographs for tree species mapping in drone imagery
Plant functional traits modulate the effects of soil acidification on above- and belowground biomass
Regional effects and local climate jointly shape the global distribution of sexual systems in woody flowering plants
Ideas and perspectives: Sensing energy and matter fluxes in a biota-dominated Patagonian landscape through environmental seismology – introducing the Pumalín Critical Zone Observatory
Comparison of carbon and water fluxes and the drivers of ecosystem water use efficiency in a temperate rainforest and a peatland in southern South America
Kilometre-scale simulations over Fennoscandia reveal a large loss of tundra due to climate warming
Microclimate mapping using novel radiative transfer modelling
On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results
Root distributions predict shrub–steppe responses to precipitation intensity
Thermophilisation of Afromontane forest stands demonstrated in an elevation gradient experiment
Soil smoldering in temperate forests: A neglected contributor to fire carbon emissions revealed by atmospheric mixing ratios
Above-treeline ecosystems facing drought: lessons from the 2022 European summer heat wave
Canopy gaps and associated losses of biomass – combining UAV imagery and field data in a central Amazon forest
Ideas and perspectives: Beyond model evaluation – combining experiments and models to advance terrestrial ecosystem science
Primary succession and its driving variables – a sphere-spanning approach applied in proglacial areas in the upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
Contemporary biodiversity pattern is affected by climate change at multiple temporal scales in steppes on the Mongolian Plateau
Quantifying vegetation indices using terrestrial laser scanning: methodological complexities and ecological insights from a Mediterranean forest
Revisiting and attributing the global controls over terrestrial ecosystem functions of climate and plant traits at FLUXNET sites via causal graphical models
Dynamics of short-term ecosystem carbon fluxes induced by precipitation events in a semiarid grassland
Throughfall exclusion and fertilization effects on tropical dry forest tree plantations, a large-scale experiment
Tectonic controls on the ecosystem of the Mara River basin, East Africa, from geomorphological and spectral index analysis
Spruce bark beetles (Ips typographus) cause up to 700 times higher bark BVOC emission rates compared to healthy Norway spruce (Picea abies)
Technical note: Novel estimates of the leaf relative uptake rate of carbonyl sulfide from optimality theory
Observed water and light limitation across global ecosystems
A question of scale: modeling biomass, gain and mortality distributions of a tropical forest
Seed traits and phylogeny explain plants' geographic distribution
Effect of the presence of plateau pikas on the ecosystem services of alpine meadows
Allometric equations and wood density parameters for estimating aboveground and woody debris biomass in Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi) forests of northeast Siberia
Strong influence of trees outside forest in regulating microclimate of intensively modified Afromontane landscapes
Excess radiation exacerbates drought stress impacts on canopy conductance along aridity gradients
Dispersal of bacteria and stimulation of permafrost decomposition by Collembola
Modeling the effects of alternative crop–livestock management scenarios on important ecosystem services for smallholder farming from a landscape perspective
Contrasting strategies of nutrient demand and use between savanna and forest ecosystems in a neotropical transition zone
Monitoring post-fire recovery of various vegetation biomes using multi-wavelength satellite remote sensing
Updated estimation of forest biomass carbon pools in China, 1977–2018
Estimating dry biomass and plant nitrogen concentration in pre-Alpine grasslands with low-cost UAS-borne multispectral data – a comparison of sensors, algorithms, and predictor sets
Fire in lichen-rich subarctic tundra changes carbon and nitrogen cycling between ecosystem compartments but has minor effects on stocks
Mass concentration measurements of autumn bioaerosol using low-cost sensors in a mature temperate woodland free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiment: investigating the role of meteorology and carbon dioxide levels
Phosphorus stress strongly reduced plant physiological activity, but only temporarily, in a mesocosm experiment with Zea mays colonized by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi
Main drivers of plant diversity patterns of rubber plantations in the Greater Mekong Subregion
Importance of the forest state in estimating biomass losses from tropical forests: combining dynamic forest models and remote sensing
Examining the role of environmental memory in the predictability of carbon and water fluxes across Australian ecosystems
Water uptake patterns of pea and barley responded to drought but not to cropping systems
Simon Scheiter, Sophie Wolf, and Teja Kattenborn
Biogeosciences, 21, 4909–4926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4909-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4909-2024, 2024
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Biomes are widely used to map vegetation patterns at large spatial scales and to assess impacts of climate change, yet there is no consensus on a generally valid biome classification scheme. We used crowd-sourced species distribution data and trait data to assess whether trait information is suitable for delimiting biomes. Although the trait data were heterogeneous and had large gaps with respect to the spatial distribution, we found that a global trait-based biome classification was possible.
Cheng-Hsien Lin, Colleen Zumpf, Chunhwa Jang, Thomas Voigt, Guanglong Tian, Olawale Oladeji, Albert Cox, Rehnuma Mehzabin, and DoKyoung Lee
Biogeosciences, 21, 4765–4784, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4765-2024, 2024
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Riparian areas are subject to environmental issues (nutrient leaching) associated with low productivity. Perennial grasses can improve ecosystem services from riparian zones while producing forage/bioenergy feedstock biomass as potential income for farmers. The forage-type buffer can be an ideal short-term candidate due to its great efficiency of nutrient scavenging; the bioenergy-type buffer showed better sustainability than the forage buffer and a continuous yield supply potential.
Gabriela Sophia, Silvia Caldararu, Benjamin David Stocker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, 2024
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Through an extensive global dataset of leaf nutrient resorption and a multifactorial analysis, we show that the majority of spatial variation in nutrient resorption may be driven by leaf habit and type, with thicker, longer-lived leaves having lower resorption efficiencies. Climate, soil fertility and soil-related factors emerge as strong drivers with an additional effect on its role. These results are essential for comprehending plant nutrient status, plant productivity and nutrient cycling.
Madeleine-Zoé Corbeil-Robitaille, Éliane Duchesne, Daniel Fortier, Christophe Kinnard, and Joël Bêty
Biogeosciences, 21, 3401–3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3401-2024, 2024
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In the Arctic tundra, climate change is transforming the landscape, and this may impact wildlife. We focus on three nesting bird species and the islets they select as refuges from their main predator, the Arctic fox. A geomorphological process, ice-wedge polygon degradation, was found to play a key role in creating these refuges. This process is likely to affect predator–prey dynamics in the Arctic tundra, highlighting the connections between nature's physical and ecological systems.
Samuel M. Fischer, Xugao Wang, and Andreas Huth
Biogeosciences, 21, 3305–3319, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3305-2024, 2024
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Understanding the drivers of forest productivity is key for accurately assessing forests’ role in the global carbon cycle. Yet, despite significant research effort, it is not fully understood how the productivity of a forest can be deduced from its stand structure. We suggest tackling this problem by identifying the share and structure of immature trees within forests and show that this approach could significantly improve estimates of forests’ net productivity and carbon uptake.
Arsène Druel, Julien Ruffault, Hendrik Davi, André Chanzy, Olivier Marloie, Miquel De Cáceres, Florent Mouillot, Christophe François, Kamel Soudani, and Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1800, 2024
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Accurate radiation data are essential for understanding ecosystem growth. Traditional large-scale data lack the precision needed for complex terrains, e.g. mountainous regions. This study introduces a new model to enhance radiation data resolution using elevation maps, which accounts for sub-daily direct and diffuse radiation effects caused by terrain features. Tested on Mont Ventoux, this method significantly improves radiation estimates, benefiting forest growth and climate risk models.
Mery Ingrid Guimarães de Alencar, Rafael D. Guariento, Bertrand Guenet, Luciana S. Carneiro, Eduardo L. Voigt, and Adriano Caliman
Biogeosciences, 21, 3165–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3165-2024, 2024
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Flowers are ephemeral organs for reproduction, and their litter is functionally different from leaf litter. Flowers can affect decomposition and interact with leaf litter, influencing decomposition non-additively. We show that mixing flower and leaf litter from the Tabebuia aurea tree creates reciprocal synergistic effects on decomposition in both terrestrial and aquatic environments. We highlight that flower litter input can generate biogeochemical hotspots in terrestrial ecosystems.
Salim Soltani, Olga Ferlian, Nico Eisenhauer, Hannes Feilhauer, and Teja Kattenborn
Biogeosciences, 21, 2909–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2909-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2909-2024, 2024
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In this research, we developed a novel method using citizen science data as alternative training data for computer vision models to map plant species in unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) images. We use citizen science plant photographs to train models and apply them to UAV images. We tested our approach on UAV images of a test site with 10 different tree species, yielding accurate results. This research shows the potential of citizen science data to advance our ability to monitor plant species.
Xue Feng, Ruzhen Wang, Tianpeng Li, Jiangping Cai, Heyong Liu, Hui Li, and Yong Jiang
Biogeosciences, 21, 2641–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2641-2024, 2024
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Plant functional traits have been considered as reflecting adaptations to environmental variations, indirectly affecting ecosystem productivity. How soil acidification affects above- and belowground biomass by altering leaf and root traits remains poorly understood. We found divergent trait responses driven by soil environmental conditions in two dominant species, resulting in a decrease in aboveground biomass and an increase in belowground biomass.
Minhua Zhang, Xiaoqing Hu, and Fangliang He
Biogeosciences, 21, 2133–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2133-2024, 2024
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Plant sexual systems are important to understanding the evolution and maintenance of plant diversity. We quantified region effects on their proportions while incorporating local climate factors and evolutionary history. We found regional processes and climate effects both play important roles in shaping the geographic distribution of sexual systems, providing a baseline for predicting future changes in forest communities in the context of global change.
Christian H. Mohr, Michael Dietze, Violeta Tolorza, Erwin Gonzalez, Benjamin Sotomayor, Andres Iroume, Sten Gilfert, and Frieder Tautz
Biogeosciences, 21, 1583–1599, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1583-2024, 2024
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Coastal temperate rainforests, among Earth’s carbon richest biomes, are systematically underrepresented in the global network of critical zone observatories (CZOs). Introducing here a first CZO in the heart of the Patagonian rainforest, Chile, we investigate carbon sink functioning, biota-driven landscape evolution, fluxes of matter and energy, and disturbance regimes. We invite the community to join us in cross-disciplinary collaboration to advance science in this particular environment.
Jorge F. Perez-Quezada, David Trejo, Javier Lopatin, David Aguilera, Bruce Osborne, Mauricio Galleguillos, Luca Zattera, Juan L. Celis-Diez, and Juan J. Armesto
Biogeosciences, 21, 1371–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1371-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1371-2024, 2024
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For 8 years we sampled a temperate rainforest and a peatland in Chile to estimate their efficiency to capture carbon per unit of water lost. The efficiency is more related to the water lost than to the carbon captured and is mainly driven by evaporation instead of transpiration. This is the first report from southern South America and highlights that ecosystems might behave differently in this area, likely explained by the high annual precipitation (~ 2100 mm) and light-limited conditions.
Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller
Biogeosciences, 21, 1093–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, 2024
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The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
Florian Zellweger, Eric Sulmoni, Johanna T. Malle, Andri Baltensweiler, Tobias Jonas, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Christian Ginzler, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Pieter De Frenne, David Frey, and Clare Webster
Biogeosciences, 21, 605–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-605-2024, 2024
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The microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms living close to the ground are not well represented in currently used climate datasets derived from weather stations. Therefore, we measured and mapped ground microclimate temperatures at 10 m spatial resolution across Switzerland using a novel radiation model. Our results reveal a high variability in microclimates across different habitats and will help to better understand climate and land use impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin De Kauwe, Sam Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084, 2024
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This paper evaluates land models – computer based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics, the land carbon, water and energy cycles and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning / AI approaches to show that despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could, given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Andrew Kulmatiski, Martin C. Holdrege, Cristina Chirvasă, and Karen H. Beard
Biogeosciences, 21, 131–143, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-131-2024, 2024
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Warmer air and larger precipitation events are changing the way water moves through the soil and into plants. Here we show that detailed descriptions of root distributions can predict plant growth responses to changing precipitation patterns. Shrubs and forbs increased growth, while grasses showed no response to increased precipitation intensity, and these responses were predicted by plant rooting distributions.
Bonaventure Ntirugulirwa, Etienne Zibera, Nkuba Epaphrodite, Aloysie Manishimwe, Donat Nsabimana, Johan Uddling, and Göran Wallin
Biogeosciences, 20, 5125–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5125-2023, 2023
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Twenty tropical tree species native to Africa were planted along an elevation gradient (1100 m, 5.4 °C difference). We found that early-successional (ES) species, especially from lower elevations, grew faster at warmer sites, while several of the late-successional (LS) species, especially from higher elevations, did not respond or grew slower. Moreover, a warmer climate increased tree mortality in LS species, but not much in ES species.
Lilian Vallet, Charbel Abdallah, Thomas Lauvaux, Lilian Joly, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Morgan Lopez, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Florent Mouillot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2421, 2023
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2022 fire season had a huge impact on European temperate forest, with several large fires exhibiting prolonged soil combustion reported. We analyzed CO and CO2 concentration recorded at nearby atmospheric towers, revealing intense smoldering combustion. We refined a fire emission model to incorporate this process. We estimated 7.95 MteqCO2 fire emission, twice the global estimate. Fires contributed to 1.97 % of the country's annual carbon footprint, reducing forest carbon sink by 30 % this year.
Philippe Choler
Biogeosciences, 20, 4259–4272, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4259-2023, 2023
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The year 2022 was unique in that the summer heat wave and drought led to a widespread reduction in vegetation growth at high elevation in the European Alps. This impact was unprecedented in the southwestern, warm, and dry part of the Alps. Over the last 2 decades, water has become a co-dominant control of vegetation activity in areas that were, so far, primarily controlled by temperature, and the growth of mountain grasslands has become increasingly sensitive to moisture availability.
Adriana Simonetti, Raquel Fernandes Araujo, Carlos Henrique Souza Celes, Flávia Ranara da Silva e Silva, Joaquim dos Santos, Niro Higuchi, Susan Trumbore, and Daniel Magnabosco Marra
Biogeosciences, 20, 3651–3666, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3651-2023, 2023
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We combined 2 years of monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery with field surveys in a central Amazon forest. Our results indicate that small gaps associated with branch fall were the most frequent. Biomass losses were partially controlled by gap area, with branch fall and snapping contributing the least and greatest relative values, respectively. Our study highlights the potential of drone images for monitoring canopy dynamics in dense tropical forests.
Silvia Caldararu, Victor Rolo, Benjamin D. Stocker, Teresa E. Gimeno, and Richard Nair
Biogeosciences, 20, 3637–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3637-2023, 2023
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Ecosystem manipulative experiments are large experiments in real ecosystems. They include processes such as species interactions and weather that would be omitted in more controlled settings. They offer a high level of realism but are underused in combination with vegetation models used to predict the response of ecosystems to global change. We propose a workflow using models and ecosystem experiments together, taking advantage of the benefits of both tools for Earth system understanding.
Katharina Ramskogler, Bettina Knoflach, Bernhard Elsner, Brigitta Erschbamer, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Florentin Hofmeister, Livia Piermattei, Camillo Ressl, Svenja Trautmann, Michael H. Wimmer, Clemens Geitner, Johann Stötter, and Erich Tasser
Biogeosciences, 20, 2919–2939, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2919-2023, 2023
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Primary succession in proglacial areas depends on complex driving forces. To concretise the complex effects and interaction processes, 39 known explanatory variables assigned to seven spheres were analysed via principal component analysis and generalised additive models. Key results show that in addition to time- and elevation-dependent factors, also disturbances alter vegetation development. The results are useful for debates on vegetation development in a warming climate.
Zijing Li, Zhiyong Li, Xuze Tong, Lei Dong, Ying Zheng, Jinghui Zhang, Bailing Miao, Lixin Wang, Liqing Zhao, Lu Wen, Guodong Han, Frank Yonghong Li, and Cunzhu Liang
Biogeosciences, 20, 2869–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2869-2023, 2023
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We used random forest models and structural equation models to assess the relative importance of the present climate and paleoclimate as determinants of diversity and aboveground biomass. Results showed that paleoclimate changes and modern climate jointly determined contemporary biodiversity patterns, while community biomass was mainly affected by modern climate. These findings suggest that contemporary biodiversity patterns may be affected by processes at divergent temporal scales.
William Rupert Moore Flynn, Harry Jon Foord Owen, Stuart William David Grieve, and Emily Rebecca Lines
Biogeosciences, 20, 2769–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2769-2023, 2023
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Quantifying vegetation indices is crucial for ecosystem monitoring and modelling. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has potential to accurately measure vegetation indices, but multiple methods exist, with little consensus on best practice. We compare three methods and extract wood-to-plant ratio, a metric used to correct for wood in leaf indices. We show corrective metrics vary with tree structure and variation among methods, highlighting the value of TLS data and importance of rigorous testing.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Biogeosciences, 20, 2727–2741, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2727-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2727-2023, 2023
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In studies on the relationship between ecosystem functions and climate and plant traits, previously used data-driven methods such as multiple regression and random forest may be inadequate for representing causality due to limitations such as covariance between variables. Based on FLUXNET site data, we used a causal graphical model to revisit the control of climate and vegetation traits over ecosystem functions.
Josué Delgado-Balbuena, Henry W. Loescher, Carlos A. Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Teresa Alfaro-Reyna, Luis F. Pineda-Martínez, Rodrigo Vargas, and Tulio Arredondo
Biogeosciences, 20, 2369–2385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2369-2023, 2023
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In the semiarid grassland, an increase in soil moisture at shallow depths instantly enhances carbon release through respiration. In contrast, deeper soil water controls plant carbon uptake but with a delay of several days. Previous soil conditions, biological activity, and the size and timing of precipitation are factors that determine the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere. Thus, future changes in precipitation patterns could convert ecosystems from carbon sinks to carbon sources.
German Vargas Gutiérrez, Daniel Pérez-Aviles, Nanette Raczka, Damaris Pereira-Arias, Julián Tijerín-Triviño, L. David Pereira-Arias, David Medvigy, Bonnie G. Waring, Ember Morrisey, Edward Brzostek, and Jennifer S. Powers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2143–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2143-2023, 2023
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To study whether nutrient availability controls tropical dry forest responses to reductions in soil moisture, we established the first troughfall exclusion experiment in a tropical dry forest plantation system crossed with a fertilization scheme. We found that the effects of fertilization on net primary productivity are larger than the effects of a ~15 % reduction in soil moisture, although in many cases we observed an interaction between drought and nutrient additions, suggesting colimitation.
Alina Lucia Ludat and Simon Kübler
Biogeosciences, 20, 1991–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1991-2023, 2023
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Satellite-based analysis illustrates the impact of geological processes for the stability of the ecosystem in the Mara River basin (Kenya/Tanzania). Newly detected fault activity influences the course of river networks and modifies erosion–deposition patterns. Tectonic surface features and variations in rock chemistry lead to localized enhancement of clay and soil moisture values and seasonally stabilised vegetation growth patterns in this climatically vulnerable region.
Erica Jaakkola, Antje Gärtner, Anna Maria Jönsson, Karl Ljung, Per-Ola Olsson, and Thomas Holst
Biogeosciences, 20, 803–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-803-2023, 2023
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Increased spruce bark beetle outbreaks were recently seen in Sweden. When Norway spruce trees are attacked, they increase their production of VOCs, attempting to kill the beetles. We provide new insights into how the Norway spruce act when infested and found the emitted volatiles to increase up to 700 times and saw a change in compound blend. We estimate that the 2020 bark beetle outbreak in Sweden could have increased the total monoterpene emissions from the forest by more than 10 %.
Georg Wohlfahrt, Albin Hammerle, Felix M. Spielmann, Florian Kitz, and Chuixiang Yi
Biogeosciences, 20, 589–596, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-589-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-589-2023, 2023
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The trace gas carbonyl sulfide (COS), which is taken up by plant leaves in a process very similar to photosynthesis, is thought to be a promising proxy for the gross uptake of carbon dioxide by plants. Here we propose a new framework for estimating a key metric to that end, the so-called leaf relative uptake rate. The values we deduce by applying principles of plant optimality are considerably lower than published values and may help reduce the uncertainty of the global COS budget.
François Jonard, Andrew F. Feldman, Daniel J. Short Gianotti, and Dara Entekhabi
Biogeosciences, 19, 5575–5590, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5575-2022, 2022
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We investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of light and water limitation in plant function at the ecosystem scale. Using satellite observations, we characterize the nonlinear relationships between sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and water and light availability. This study highlights that soil moisture limitations on SIF are found primarily in drier environments, while light limitations are found in intermediately wet regions.
Nikolai Knapp, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Huth
Biogeosciences, 19, 4929–4944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4929-2022, 2022
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The biomass of forests is determined by forest growth and mortality. These quantities can be estimated with different methods such as inventories, remote sensing and modeling. These methods are usually being applied at different spatial scales. The scales influence the obtained frequency distributions of biomass, growth and mortality. This study suggests how to transfer between scales, when using forest models of different complexity for a tropical forest.
Kai Chen, Kevin S. Burgess, Fangliang He, Xiang-Yun Yang, Lian-Ming Gao, and De-Zhu Li
Biogeosciences, 19, 4801–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4801-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4801-2022, 2022
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Why does plants' distributional range size vary enormously? This study provides evidence that seed mass, intraspecific seed mass variation, seed dispersal mode and phylogeny contribute to explaining species distribution variation on a geographic scale. Our study clearly shows the importance of including seed life-history traits in modeling and predicting the impact of climate change on species distribution of seed plants.
Ying Ying Chen, Huan Yang, Gen Sheng Bao, Xiao Pan Pang, and Zheng Gang Guo
Biogeosciences, 19, 4521–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4521-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4521-2022, 2022
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Investigating the effect of the presence of plateau pikas on ecosystem services of alpine meadows is helpful to understand the role of the presence of small mammalian herbivores in grasslands. The results of this study showed that the presence of plateau pikas led to higher biodiversity conservation, soil nitrogen and phosphorus maintenance, and carbon sequestration of alpine meadows, whereas it led to lower forage available to livestock and water conservation of alpine meadows.
Clement Jean Frédéric Delcourt and Sander Veraverbeke
Biogeosciences, 19, 4499–4520, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4499-2022, 2022
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This study provides new equations that can be used to estimate aboveground tree biomass in larch-dominated forests of northeast Siberia. Applying these equations to 53 forest stands in the Republic of Sakha (Russia) resulted in significantly larger biomass stocks than when using existing equations. The data presented in this work can help refine biomass estimates in Siberian boreal forests. This is essential to assess changes in boreal vegetation and carbon dynamics.
Iris Johanna Aalto, Eduardo Eiji Maeda, Janne Heiskanen, Eljas Kullervo Aalto, and Petri Kauko Emil Pellikka
Biogeosciences, 19, 4227–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4227-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4227-2022, 2022
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Tree canopies are strong moderators of understory climatic conditions. In tropical areas, trees cool down the microclimates. Using remote sensing and field measurements we show how even intermediate canopy cover and agroforestry trees contributed to buffering the hottest temperatures in Kenya. The cooling effect was the greatest during hot days and in lowland areas, where the ambient temperatures were high. Adopting agroforestry practices in the area could assist in mitigating climate change.
Jing Wang and Xuefa Wen
Biogeosciences, 19, 4197–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4197-2022, 2022
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Excess radiation and low temperatures exacerbate drought impacts on canopy conductance (Gs) among transects. The primary determinant of drought stress on Gs was soil moisture on the Loess Plateau (LP) and the Mongolian Plateau (MP), whereas it was the vapor pressure deficit on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Radiation exhibited a negative effect on Gs via drought stress within transects, while temperature had negative effects on stomatal conductance on the TP but no effect on the LP and MP.
Sylvain Monteux, Janine Mariën, and Eveline J. Krab
Biogeosciences, 19, 4089–4105, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4089-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4089-2022, 2022
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Quantifying the feedback from the decomposition of thawing permafrost soils is crucial to establish adequate climate warming mitigation scenarios. Past efforts have focused on abiotic and to some extent microbial drivers of decomposition but not biotic drivers such as soil fauna. We added soil fauna (Collembola Folsomia candida) to permafrost, which introduced bacterial taxa without affecting bacterial communities as a whole but increased CO2 production (+12 %), presumably due to priming.
Mirjam Pfeiffer, Munir P. Hoffmann, Simon Scheiter, William Nelson, Johannes Isselstein, Kingsley Ayisi, Jude J. Odhiambo, and Reimund Rötter
Biogeosciences, 19, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3935-2022, 2022
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Smallholder farmers face challenges due to poor land management and climate change. We linked the APSIM crop model and the aDGVM2 vegetation model to investigate integrated management options that enhance ecosystem functions and services. Sustainable intensification moderately increased yields. Crop residue grazing reduced feed gaps but not for dry-to-wet season transitions. Measures to improve soil water and nutrient status are recommended. Landscape-level ecosystem management is essential.
Marina Corrêa Scalon, Imma Oliveras Menor, Renata Freitag, Karine S. Peixoto, Sami W. Rifai, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon Junior, and Yadvinder Malhi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3649–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3649-2022, 2022
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We investigated dynamic nutrient flow and demand in a typical savanna and a transition forest to understand how similar soils and the same climate dominated by savanna vegetation can also support forest-like formations. Savanna relied on nutrient resorption from wood, and nutrient demand was equally partitioned between leaves, wood and fine roots. Transition forest relied on resorption from the canopy biomass and nutrient demand was predominantly driven by leaves.
Emma Bousquet, Arnaud Mialon, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Stéphane Mermoz, and Yann Kerr
Biogeosciences, 19, 3317–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3317-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3317-2022, 2022
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Pre- and post-fire values of four climate variables and four vegetation variables were analysed at the global scale, in order to observe (i) the general fire likelihood factors and (ii) the vegetation recovery trends over various biomes. The main result of this study is that L-band vegetation optical depth (L-VOD) is the most impacted vegetation variable and takes the longest to recover over dense forests. L-VOD could then be useful for post-fire vegetation recovery studies.
Chen Yang, Yue Shi, Wenjuan Sun, Jiangling Zhu, Chengjun Ji, Yuhao Feng, Suhui Ma, Zhaodi Guo, and Jingyun Fang
Biogeosciences, 19, 2989–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2989-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2989-2022, 2022
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Quantifying China's forest biomass C pool is important in understanding C cycling in forests. However, most of studies on forest biomass C pool were limited to the period of 2004–2008. Here, we used a biomass expansion factor method to estimate C pool from 1977 to 2018. The results suggest that afforestation practices, forest growth, and environmental changes were the main drivers of increased C sink. Thus, this study provided an essential basis for achieving China's C neutrality target.
Anne Schucknecht, Bumsuk Seo, Alexander Krämer, Sarah Asam, Clement Atzberger, and Ralf Kiese
Biogeosciences, 19, 2699–2727, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2699-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2699-2022, 2022
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Actual maps of grassland traits could improve local farm management and support environmental assessments. We developed, assessed, and applied models to estimate dry biomass and plant nitrogen (N) concentration in pre-Alpine grasslands with drone-based multispectral data and canopy height information. Our results indicate that machine learning algorithms are able to estimate both parameters but reach a better level of performance for biomass.
Ramona J. Heim, Andrey Yurtaev, Anna Bucharova, Wieland Heim, Valeriya Kutskir, Klaus-Holger Knorr, Christian Lampei, Alexandr Pechkin, Dora Schilling, Farid Sulkarnaev, and Norbert Hölzel
Biogeosciences, 19, 2729–2740, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2729-2022, 2022
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Fires will probably increase in Arctic regions due to climate change. Yet, the long-term effects of tundra fires on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stocks and cycling are still unclear. We investigated the long-term fire effects on C and N stocks and cycling in soil and aboveground living biomass.
We found that tundra fires did not affect total C and N stocks because a major part of the stocks was located belowground in soils which were largely unaltered by fire.
Aileen B. Baird, Edward J. Bannister, A. Robert MacKenzie, and Francis D. Pope
Biogeosciences, 19, 2653–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2653-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2653-2022, 2022
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Forest environments contain a wide variety of airborne biological particles (bioaerosols) important for plant and animal health and biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Using low-cost sensors and a free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiment, we monitor the impact of enhanced CO2 on airborne particles. No effect of the enhanced CO2 treatment on total particle concentrations was observed, but a potential suppression of high concentration bioaerosol events was detected under enhanced CO2.
Melanie S. Verlinden, Hamada AbdElgawad, Arne Ven, Lore T. Verryckt, Sebastian Wieneke, Ivan A. Janssens, and Sara Vicca
Biogeosciences, 19, 2353–2364, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2353-2022, 2022
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Zea mays grows in mesocosms with different soil nutrition levels. At low phosphorus (P) availability, leaf physiological activity initially decreased strongly. P stress decreased over the season. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) symbiosis increased over the season. AMF symbiosis is most likely responsible for gradual reduction in P stress.
Guoyu Lan, Bangqian Chen, Chuan Yang, Rui Sun, Zhixiang Wu, and Xicai Zhang
Biogeosciences, 19, 1995–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1995-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1995-2022, 2022
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Little is known about the impact of rubber plantations on diversity of the Great Mekong Subregion. In this study, we uncovered latitudinal gradients of plant diversity of rubber plantations. Exotic species with high dominance result in loss of plant diversity of rubber plantations. Not all exotic species would reduce plant diversity of rubber plantations. Much more effort should be made to balance agricultural production with conservation goals in this region.
Ulrike Hiltner, Andreas Huth, and Rico Fischer
Biogeosciences, 19, 1891–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1891-2022, 2022
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Quantifying biomass loss rates due to stem mortality is important for estimating the role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle. We analyse the consequences of long-term elevated stem mortality for tropical forest dynamics and biomass loss. Based on simulations, we developed a statistical model to estimate biomass loss rates of forests in different successional states from forest attributes. Assuming a doubling of tree mortality, biomass loss increased from 3.2 % yr-1 to 4.5 % yr-1.
Jon Cranko Page, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Jamie Cleverly, Nina Hinko-Najera, Mark J. Hovenden, Yao Liu, Andy J. Pitman, and Kiona Ogle
Biogeosciences, 19, 1913–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1913-2022, 2022
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Although vegetation responds to climate at a wide range of timescales, models of the land carbon sink often ignore responses that do not occur instantly. In this study, we explore the timescales at which Australian ecosystems respond to climate. We identified that carbon and water fluxes can be modelled more accurately if we include environmental drivers from up to a year in the past. The importance of antecedent conditions is related to ecosystem aridity but is also influenced by other factors.
Qing Sun, Valentin H. Klaus, Raphaël Wittwer, Yujie Liu, Marcel G. A. van der Heijden, Anna K. Gilgen, and Nina Buchmann
Biogeosciences, 19, 1853–1869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1853-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1853-2022, 2022
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Drought is one of the biggest challenges for future food production globally. During a simulated drought, pea and barley mainly relied on water from shallow soil depths, independent of different cropping systems.
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