Articles | Volume 10, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6657-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6657-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Oct 2013
Research article |
| 24 Oct 2013
Global changes in dryland vegetation dynamics (1988–2008) assessed by satellite remote sensing: comparing a new passive microwave vegetation density record with reflective greenness data
N. Andela
Earth and Climate Cluster, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU-University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Y. Y. Liu
Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, 2601, ACT, Australia
A. I. J. M. van Dijk
Fenner School of Environment & Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, 2601, ACT, Australia
R. A. M. de Jeu
Earth and Climate Cluster, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU-University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
T. R. McVicar
CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, 2601, ACT, Australia
Related authors
Niels Andela, Douglas C. Morton, Louis Giglio, Ronan Paugam, Yang Chen, Stijn Hantson, Guido R. van der Werf, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, and satellite observations provide evidence for rapid changes in global fire activity. The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed, and direction is the first global data product on individual fire behavior. Moving towards a global understanding of individual fire behavior is a critical next step in fire research, required to understand how global fire regimes are changing in response to land management and climate.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Niels Andela, Guido R. van der Werf, Johannes W. Kaiser, Thijs T. van Leeuwen, Martin J. Wooster, and Caroline E. R. Lehmann
Biogeosciences, 13, 3717–3734, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3717-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3717-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Landscape fires occur on a large scale in savannas and grasslands, affecting ecosystems and air quality. We combined two satellite-derived datasets to derive fuel consumption per unit of area burned for savannas and grasslands in the (sub)tropics. Fire return periods, vegetation productivity, vegetation type and human land management were all important drivers of its spatial distribution. The results can be used to improve fire emission modelling and management or to detect ecosystem degradation.
N. Andela, J. W. Kaiser, G. R. van der Werf, and M. J. Wooster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8831–8846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8831-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The polar orbiting MODIS instruments provide four daily observations of the fire diurnal cycle, resulting in erroneous fire radiative energy (FRE) estimates. Using geostationary SEVIRI data, we explore the fire diurnal cycle and its drivers for Africa to develop a new method to estimate global FRE in near real-time using MODIS. The fire diurnal cycle varied with climate and vegetation type, and including information on the fire diurnal cycle in the model significantly improved the FRE estimates.
Chad A. Burton, Sami W. Rifai, Luigi J. Renzullo, and Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4389–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4389-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4389-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding vegetation response to environmental change requires accurate, long-term data on vegetation condition (VC). We evaluated existing satellite VC datasets over Australia and found them lacking, so we developed a new VC dataset for Australia, AusENDVI. It can be used for studying Australia's changing vegetation dynamics and downstream impacts on the carbon and water cycles, and it provides a reliable foundation for further research into the drivers of vegetation change.
Yi Y. Liu, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Patrick Meir, and Tim R. McVicar
Biogeosciences, 21, 2273–2295, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2273-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2273-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Greenness of the Amazon forest fluctuated during the 2015–2016 drought, but no satisfactory explanation has been found. Based on water storage, temperature, and atmospheric moisture demand, we developed a method to delineate the regions where forests were under stress. These drought-affected regions were mainly identified at the beginning and end of the drought, resulting in below-average greenness. For the months in between, without stress, greenness responded positively to intense sunlight.
Jiawei Hou, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Luigi J. Renzullo, and Pablo R. Larraondo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 201–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-201-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The GloLakes dataset provides historical and near-real-time time series of relative (i.e. storage change) and absolute (i.e. total stored volume) storage for more than 27 000 lakes worldwide using multiple sources of satellite data, including laser and radar altimetry and optical remote sensing. These data can help us understand the influence of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on water availability and system ecology over the last 4 decades.
Shanlei Sun, Zaoying Bi, Jingfeng Xiao, Yi Liu, Ge Sun, Weimin Ju, Chunwei Liu, Mengyuan Mu, Jinjian Li, Yang Zhou, Xiaoyuan Li, Yibo Liu, and Haishan Chen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4849–4876, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4849-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4849-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Based on various existing datasets, we comprehensively considered spatiotemporal differences in land surfaces and CO2 effects on plant stomatal resistance to parameterize the Shuttleworth–Wallace model, and we generated a global 5 km ensemble mean monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) dataset (including potential transpiration PT and soil evaporation PE) during 1982–2015. The new dataset may be used by academic communities and various agencies to conduct various studies.
Chad A. Burton, Luigi J. Renzullo, Sami W. Rifai, and Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4109–4134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Australia's land-based ecosystems play a critical role in controlling the variability in the global land carbon sink. However, uncertainties in the methods used for quantifying carbon fluxes limit our understanding. We develop high-resolution estimates of Australia's land carbon fluxes using machine learning methods and find that Australia is, on average, a stronger carbon sink than previously thought and that the seasonal dynamics of the fluxes differ from those described by other methods.
Jiawei Hou, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Hylke E. Beck, Luigi J. Renzullo, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3785–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3785-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3785-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite imagery to measure monthly reservoir water volumes for 6695 reservoirs worldwide for 1984–2015. We investigated how changing precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, and human activity affected reservoir water storage. Almost half of the reservoirs showed significant increasing or decreasing trends over the past three decades. These changes are caused, first and foremost, by changes in precipitation rather than by changes in net evaporation or dam release patterns.
Yuting Yang, Tim R. McVicar, Dawen Yang, Yongqiang Zhang, Shilong Piao, Shushi Peng, and Hylke E. Beck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3411–3427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3411-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3411-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed an analytical ecohydrological model that considers three aspects of vegetation response to eCO2 (i.e., stomatal response, LAI response, and rooting depth response) to detect the impact of eCO2 on continental runoff over the past 3 decades globally. Our findings suggest a minor role of eCO2 on the global runoff changes, yet highlight the negative runoff–eCO2 response in semiarid and arid regions which may further threaten the limited water resource there.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Diego G. Miralles, Rolf H. Reichle, Wouter A. Dorigo, Sebastian Hahn, Justin Sheffield, Lanka Karthikeyan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Robert M. Parinussa, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Noemi Vergopolan, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the largest and most diverse set of surface soil moisture products ever evaluated in a single study. We found pronounced differences in performance among individual products and product groups. Our results provide guidance to choose the most suitable product for a particular application.
Songyan Yu, Hong Xuan Do, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Nick R. Bond, Peirong Lin, and Mark J. Kennard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5279–5295, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5279-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5279-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There is a growing interest globally in the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of intermittently flowing streams and rivers. We developed an approach to quantify catchment-wide flow intermittency over long time frames. Modelled patterns of flow intermittency in eastern Australia revealed highly dynamic behaviour in space and time. The developed approach is transferable to other parts of the world and can inform hydro-ecological understanding and management of intermittent streams.
Yuting Yang, Shulei Zhang, Michael L. Roderick, Tim R. McVicar, Dawen Yang, Wenbin Liu, and Xiaoyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2921–2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Many previous studies using offline drought indices report that future warming will increase worldwide drought. However, this contradicts observations/projections of vegetation greening and increased runoff. We resolved this paradox by re-calculating the same drought indices using direct climate model outputs and find no increase in future drought as the climate warms. We also find that accounting for the impact of CO2 on plant transpiration avoids the previous overestimation of drought.
Jiawei Hou, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Luigi J. Renzullo, Robert A. Vertessy, and Norman Mueller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1003–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1003-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1003-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hydromorphological data including temporal and spatial river width dynamics, flow regime, and river gradient for 1.4 x 106 Australian river reaches are presented. We propose a parameter which can be used to classify reaches by the degree to which flow regime tends towards permanent, frequent, intermittent, or ephemeral. This dataset provides fundamental information for understanding hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes in floodplain–river systems.
Niels Andela, Douglas C. Morton, Louis Giglio, Ronan Paugam, Yang Chen, Stijn Hantson, Guido R. van der Werf, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, and satellite observations provide evidence for rapid changes in global fire activity. The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed, and direction is the first global data product on individual fire behavior. Moving towards a global understanding of individual fire behavior is a critical next step in fire research, required to understand how global fire regimes are changing in response to land management and climate.
Siyuan Tian, Luigi J. Renzullo, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Paul Tregoning, and Jeffrey P. Walker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1067–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1067-2019, 2019
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Tirthankar Roy, Graham P. Weedon, Florian Pappenberger, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, George J. Huffman, Robert F. Adler, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 207–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-207-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a comprehensive evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets for the US using the Stage-IV gauge-radar dataset as a reference. The best overall performance was obtained by MSWEP V2.2, underscoring the importance of applying daily gauge corrections and accounting for reporting times. Our findings can be used as a guide to choose the most suitable precipitation dataset for a particular application.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Jiawei Hou, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Luigi J. Renzullo, and Robert A. Vertessy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6435–6448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6435-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6435-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite-based river gauging can be constructed based on remote-sensing-derived surface water extent and modelled discharge, and used to estimate river discharges with satellite observations only. This provides opportunities for monitoring river discharge in the absence of a real-time hydrological model or gauging stations.
Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jaap Schellekens, Marta Yebra, Hylke E. Beck, Luigi J. Renzullo, Albrecht Weerts, and Gennadii Donchyts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4959–4980, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4959-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4959-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation from wetlands, lakes and irrigation areas needs to be measured to understand water scarcity. So far, this has only been possible for small regions. Here, we develop a solution that can be applied at a very high resolution globally by making use of satellite observations. Our results show that 16% of global water resources evaporate before reaching the ocean, mostly from surface water. Irrigation water use is less than 1% globally but is a very large water user in several dry basins.
Anouk I. Gevaert, Luigi J. Renzullo, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Hans J. van der Woerd, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Richard A. M. de Jeu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4605–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4605-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4605-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We assimilated three satellite soil moisture retrievals based on different microwave frequencies into a hydrological model. Two sets of experiments were performed, first assimilating the retrievals individually and then assimilating each set of two retrievals jointly. Overall, assimilation improved agreement between model and field-measured soil moisture. Joint assimilation resulted in model performance similar to or better than assimilating either retrieval individually.
Hylke E. Beck, Noemi Vergopolan, Ming Pan, Vincenzo Levizzani, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Graham P. Weedon, Luca Brocca, Florian Pappenberger, George J. Huffman, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6201–6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study represents the most comprehensive global-scale precipitation dataset evaluation to date. We evaluated 13 uncorrected precipitation datasets using precipitation observations from 76 086 gauges, and 9 gauge-corrected ones using hydrological modeling for 9053 catchments. Our results highlight large differences in estimation accuracy, and hence, the importance of precipitation dataset selection in both research and operational applications.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Yoshihide Wada, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Ad de Roo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, James S. Famiglietti, Naota Hanasaki, Megan Konar, Junguo Liu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Taikan Oki, Yadu Pokhrel, Murugesu Sivapalan, Tara J. Troy, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Tim van Emmerik, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Niko Wanders, and Howard Wheater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly increasing population and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes on an unprecedented scale. Awareness of potential water scarcity led to first global water resource assessments; however, few hydrological models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities. Our contribution highlights the importance of human activities transforming the Earth's water cycle, and how hydrological models can include such influences in an integrated manner.
Jaap Schellekens, Emanuel Dutra, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Albert van Dijk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Marie Minvielle, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Bertrand Decharme, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens van Beek, Jan Polcher, Hylke Beck, René Orth, Ben Calton, Sophia Burke, Wouter Dorigo, and Graham P. Weedon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The dataset combines the results of 10 global models that describe the global continental water cycle. The data can be used as input for water resources studies, flood frequency studies etc. at different scales from continental to medium-scale catchments. We compared the results with earth observation data and conclude that most uncertainties are found in snow-dominated regions and tropical rainforest and monsoon regions.
Hylke E. Beck, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Ad de Roo, Emanuel Dutra, Gabriel Fink, Rene Orth, and Jaap Schellekens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2881–2903, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2881-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2881-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff measurements for 966 catchments around the globe were used to assess the quality of the daily runoff estimates of 10 hydrological models run as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty.
Lan T. Ha, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen, Ann van Griensven, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, and Gabriel B. Senay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-251, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The paper shows a new approach in calibrating hydrological model using remote sensing data from open access sources. The innovation is that the parameters of the soil-vegetation processes were optimized that will make SWAT a useful tool for optimizing water conservation, agricultural outputs, and ecosystem services such as reduced soil erosion, better water quality standards, carbon sequestration, micro-climate cooling and appraising scenarios of green growth.
Hylke E. Beck, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Vincenzo Levizzani, Jaap Schellekens, Diego G. Miralles, Brecht Martens, and Ad de Roo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 589–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-589-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-589-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) is a new global terrestrial precipitation dataset with a high 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution. The dataset is unique in that it takes advantage of a wide range of data sources, including gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data, to obtain the best possible precipitation estimates at global scale. The dataset outperforms existing gauge-adjusted precipitation datasets.
Caitlin E. Moore, Tim Brown, Trevor F. Keenan, Remko A. Duursma, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jason Beringer, Darius Culvenor, Bradley Evans, Alfredo Huete, Lindsay B. Hutley, Stefan Maier, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Oliver Sonnentag, Alison Specht, Jeffrey R. Taylor, Eva van Gorsel, and Michael J. Liddell
Biogeosciences, 13, 5085–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5085-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5085-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Australian vegetation phenology is highly variable due to the diversity of ecosystems on the continent. We explore continental-scale variability using satellite remote sensing by broadly classifying areas as seasonal, non-seasonal, or irregularly seasonal. We also examine ecosystem-scale phenology using phenocams and show that some broadly non-seasonal ecosystems do display phenological variability. Overall, phenocams are useful for understanding ecosystem-scale Australian vegetation phenology.
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
Niels Andela, Guido R. van der Werf, Johannes W. Kaiser, Thijs T. van Leeuwen, Martin J. Wooster, and Caroline E. R. Lehmann
Biogeosciences, 13, 3717–3734, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3717-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3717-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Landscape fires occur on a large scale in savannas and grasslands, affecting ecosystems and air quality. We combined two satellite-derived datasets to derive fuel consumption per unit of area burned for savannas and grasslands in the (sub)tropics. Fire return periods, vegetation productivity, vegetation type and human land management were all important drivers of its spatial distribution. The results can be used to improve fire emission modelling and management or to detect ecosystem degradation.
Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen, Hongkai Gao, Jonas Jägermeyr, Gabriel B. Senay, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Juan P. Guerschman, Patrick W. Keys, Line J. Gordon, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1459–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present an "Earth observation-based" method for estimating root zone storage capacity – a critical parameter in land surface modelling that represents the maximum amount of soil moisture available for vegetation. Variability within a land cover type is captured, and a global model evaporation simulation is overall improved, particularly in sub-humid to humid regions with seasonality. This new method can eliminate the need for unreliable soil and root depth data in land surface modelling.
M. J. E. van Marle, G. R. van der Werf, R. A. M. de Jeu, and Y. Y. Liu
Biogeosciences, 13, 609–624, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-609-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-609-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have quantified large-scale forest loss over a 21-year period (1990–2010) in the tropical biomes of South America using a new satellite-based data set. We found that South American forest exhibited interannual variability without a clear trend during the 1990s, but increased from 2000 to 2004. After 2004, forest loss decreased again, mainly as a result of a decrease in the Brazilian Amazon, whereas at the same time regions south of the arc of deforestation showed an increase in forest loss.
N. Andela, J. W. Kaiser, G. R. van der Werf, and M. J. Wooster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8831–8846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8831-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The polar orbiting MODIS instruments provide four daily observations of the fire diurnal cycle, resulting in erroneous fire radiative energy (FRE) estimates. Using geostationary SEVIRI data, we explore the fire diurnal cycle and its drivers for Africa to develop a new method to estimate global FRE in near real-time using MODIS. The fire diurnal cycle varied with climate and vegetation type, and including information on the fire diurnal cycle in the model significantly improved the FRE estimates.
A. I. J. M. van Dijk, L. J. Renzullo, Y. Wada, and P. Tregoning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2955-2014, 2014
H. E. Beck, L. A. Bruijnzeel, A. I. J. M. van Dijk, T. R. McVicar, F. N. Scatena, and J. Schellekens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2613–2635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2613-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2613-2013, 2013
T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, L. Lowe, R. Srikanthan, and T. R. McVicar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1331–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1331-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1331-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Modelling ozone-induced changes in wheat amino acids and protein quality using a process-based crop model
Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean
Assessment framework to predict sensitivity of marine calcifiers to ocean alkalinity enhancement – identification of biological thresholds and importance of precautionary principle
Review and syntheses: Ocean alkalinity enhancement and carbon dioxide removal through marine enhanced rock weathering using olivine
Particle fluxes by subtropical pelagic communities under ocean alkalinity enhancement
Responses of field-grown maize to different soil types, water regimes, and contrasting vapor pressure deficit
Effect of the 2022 summer drought across forest types in Europe
Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget
Projected changes in forest fire season, the number of fires, and burnt area in Fennoscandia by 2100
New ozone–nitrogen model shows early senescence onset is the primary cause of ozone-induced reduction in grain quality of wheat
Ocean alkalinity enhancement approaches and the predictability of runaway precipitation processes: results of an experimental study to determine critical alkalinity ranges for safe and sustainable application scenarios
Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species
Variations of polyphenols and carbohydrates of Emiliania huxleyi grown under simulated ocean acidification conditions
Foliar nutrient uptake from dust sustains plant nutrition
Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion
Effects of pH/pCO2 fluctuation on photosynthesis and fatty acid composition of two marine diatoms, with reference to consequence of coastal acidification
Selecting allometric equations to estimate forest biomass from plot- rather than individual-level predictive performance
The biological and preformed carbon pumps in perpetually slower and warmer oceans
The Effectiveness of Agricultural Carbon Dioxide Removal using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model
The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5
Mapping the future afforestation distribution of China constrained by a national afforestation plan and climate change
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land-surface properties of the boreal forest
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestion for improved simulation of CO2 concentration
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Divergent responses of evergreen needle-leaf forests in Europe to the 2020 warm winter
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the increase in ocean acidity extremes in the northeastern Pacific
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Alkalinity biases in CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for simulated CO2 drawdown via artificial alkalinity enhancement
Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Jo Cook, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 1035–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone (O3) pollution reduces wheat yields and quality in India, affecting amino acids essential for nutrition, like lysine and methionine. Here, we improve the DO3SE-CropN model to simulate wheat’s protective processes against O3 and their impact on protein and amino acid concentrations. While the model captures O3-induced yield losses, it underestimates amino acid reductions. Further research is needed to refine the model, enabling future risk assessments of O3's impact on yields and nutrition.
Stéphane Doléac, Marina Lévy, Roy El Hourany, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 22, 841–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The marine biogeochemistry components of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models vary widely in their process representations. Using an innovative bioregionalization of the North Atlantic, we reveal that this model diversity largely drives the divergence in net primary production projections under a high-emission scenario. The identification of the most mechanistically realistic models allows for a substantial reduction in projection uncertainty.
Nina Bednaršek, Hanna van de Mortel, Greg Pelletier, Marisol García-Reyes, Richard A. Feely, and Andrew G. Dickson
Biogeosciences, 22, 473–498, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The environmental impacts of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) are unknown. Our synthesis, based on 68 collected studies with 84 unique species, shows that 35 % of species respond positively, 26 % respond negatively, and 39 % show a neutral response to alkalinity addition. Biological thresholds were found from 50 to 500 µmol kg−1 NaOH addition. A precautionary approach is warranted to avoid potential risks, while current regulatory framework needs improvements to assure safe biological limits.
Luna J. J. Geerts, Astrid Hylén, and Filip J. R. Meysman
Biogeosciences, 22, 355–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-355-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Marine enhanced rock weathering (mERW) with olivine is a promising method for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, yet studies in field conditions are lacking. We bridge the gap between theoretical studies and the real-world environment by estimating the predictability of mERW parameters and identifying aspects to consider when applying mERW. A major source of uncertainty is the lack of experimental studies with sediment, which can heavily influence the speed and efficiency of CO2 drawdown.
Philipp Suessle, Jan Taucher, Silvan Urs Goldenberg, Moritz Baumann, Kristian Spilling, Andrea Noche-Ferreira, Mari Vanharanta, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 22, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-71-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-71-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a negative emission technology which may alter marine communities and the particle export they drive. Here, impacts of carbonate-based OAE on the flux and attenuation of sinking particles in an oligotrophic plankton community are presented. Whilst biological parameters remained unaffected, abiotic carbonate precipitation occurred. Among counteracting OAE’s efficiency, it influenced mineral ballasting and particle sinking velocities, requiring monitoring.
Thuy Huu Nguyen, Thomas Gaiser, Jan Vanderborght, Andrea Schnepf, Felix Bauer, Anja Klotzsche, Lena Lärm, Hubert Hüging, and Frank Ewert
Biogeosciences, 21, 5495–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf water potential was at certain thresholds, depending on soil type, water treatment, and weather conditions. In rainfed plots, the lower water availability in the stony soil resulted in fewer roots with a higher root tissue conductance than the silty soil. In the silty soil, higher stress in the rainfed soil led to more roots with a lower root tissue conductance than in the irrigated plot. Crop responses to water stress can be opposite, depending on soil water conditions that are compared.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Jingfeng Xiao, Xing Li, and Nina Buchmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5481–5494, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, Europe's forests faced unprecedented dry conditions. Our study aimed to understand how different forest types respond to extreme drought. Using meteorological data and satellite imagery, we compared 2022 with two previous extreme years, 2003 and 2018. Despite less severe drought in 2022, forests showed a 30 % greater decline in photosynthesis compared to 2018 and 60 % more than 2003. This suggests an alarming level of vulnerability of forests across Europe to more frequent droughts.
Makcim L. De Sisto and Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 21, 4853–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The remaining carbon budget (RCB) represents the allowable future CO2 emissions before a temperature target is reached. Understanding the uncertainty in the RCB is critical for effective climate regulation and policy-making. One major source of uncertainty is the representation of the carbon cycle in Earth system models. We assessed how nutrient limitation affects the estimation of the RCB. We found a reduction in the estimated RCB when nutrient limitation is taken into account.
Outi Kinnunen, Leif Backman, Juha Aalto, Tuula Aalto, and Tiina Markkanen
Biogeosciences, 21, 4739–4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase the risk of forest fires. Ecosystem process model simulations are used to project changes in fire occurrence in Fennoscandia under six climate projections. The findings suggest a longer fire season, more fires, and an increase in burnt area towards the end of the century.
Jo Cook, Clare Brewster, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, Håkan Pleijel, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 21, 4809–4835, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
At ground level, the air pollutant ozone (O3) damages wheat yield and quality. We modified the DO3SE-Crop model to simulate O3 effects on wheat quality and identified onset of leaf death as the key process affecting wheat quality upon O3 exposure. This aligns with expectations, as the onset of leaf death aids nutrient transfer from leaves to grains. Breeders should prioritize wheat varieties resistant to protein loss from delayed leaf death, to maintain yield and quality under O3 exposure.
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 4587–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study observed uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3090, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in an overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may play a key role in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
Milagros Rico, Paula Santiago-Díaz, Guillermo Samperio-Ramos, Melchor González-Dávila, and Juana Magdalena Santana-Casiano
Biogeosciences, 21, 4381–4394, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in pH generate stress conditions, either because high pH drastically decreases the availability of trace metals such as Fe(II), a restrictive element for primary productivity, or because reactive oxygen species are increased with low pH. The metabolic functions and composition of microalgae can be affected. These modifications in metabolites are potential factors leading to readjustments in phytoplankton community structure and diversity and possible alteration in marine ecosystems.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, Elnatan Golan, Ran Erel, Daniele Andronico, and Avner Gross
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2531, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how chickpea plants can absorb essential nutrients like phosphorus, iron, and nickel directly from dust deposited on their leaves, in addition to uptake through their roots. This process was particularly effective under higher levels of atmospheric CO2, leading to increased plant growth. By using Nd isotopic tools, we traced the nutrients from dust and found that certain leaf traits enhance this uptake. This discovery may become increasingly important as CO2 levels rise.
James A. King, James Weber, Peter Lawrence, Stephanie Roe, Abigail L. S. Swann, and Maria Val Martin
Biogeosciences, 21, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tackling climate change by adding, restoring, or enhancing forests is gaining global support. However, it is important to investigate the broader implications of this. We used a computer model of the Earth to investigate a future where tree cover expanded as much as possible. We found that some tropical areas were cooler because of trees pumping water into the atmosphere, but this also led to soil and rivers drying. This is important because it might be harder to maintain forests as a result.
Yu Shang, Jingmin Qiu, Yuxi Weng, Xin Wang, Di Zhang, Yuwei Zhou, Juntian Xu, and Futian Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2430, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal waters are characterized by dynamic pH due to a range of natural and anthropogenic factors. However, research on influences of dynamic pH on marine ecosystem is still in its infancy. We manipulated the culturing pH to simulate pH fluctuation and found lower pH could increase EPA and DHA production with unaltered growth and photosynthesis. Effects of seawater acidification on primary production could be overestimated if the prediction doesn’t take pH variability into account.
Nicolas Picard, Noël Fonton, Faustin Boyemba Bosela, Adeline Fayolle, Joël Loumeto, Gabriel Ngua Ayecaba, Bonaventure Sonké, Olga Diane Yongo Bombo, Hervé Martial Maïdou, and Alfred Ngomanda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2302, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Allometric equations predict tree biomass and are crucial for estimating forest carbon storage, thus assessing forests' role in climate change mitigation. Usually, these equations are selected based on tree-level predictive performance. However, we evaluated the model performance at plot and forest levels, finding it varies with plot size. This has significant implications for reducing uncertainty in biomass estimates at these levels.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Biogeosciences, 21, 3373–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How do perpetually slower and warmer oceans sequester carbon? Compared to the preindustrial state, we find that biological productivity declines despite warming-stimulated growth because of a lower nutrient supply from depth. This throttles the biological carbon pump, which still sequesters more carbon because it takes longer to return to the surface. The deep ocean is isolated from the surface, allowing more carbon from the atmosphere to pass through the ocean without contributing to biology.
Rebecca Chloe Evans and H. Damon Matthews
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1810, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To mitigate our impact on the climate, research suggests that we will need to both drastically reduce emissions and perform carbon dioxide removal (CDR). We simulated future climates under three emissions scenarios, in which we removed some carbon from the air and put it into agricultural soil at varying rates. We found that agricultural CDR is much more effective at reducing global temperatures if done in a low emissions scenario and at a high rate, and it becomes less effective with time.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation regions based on future high-resolution climate data and climate–vegetation models. After considering the national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation region was mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study provides a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
Biogeosciences, 21, 2509–2527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices for the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 21, 2355–2365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesize that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We find that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was also maintained under elevated levels of CO2.
Lucia S. Layritz, Konstantin Gregor, Andreas Krause, Stefan Kruse, Ben F. Meyer, Tom A. M. Pugh, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbances (e.g. fire) can change which species grow in a forest, affecting water, carbon, energy flows, and the climate. They are expected to increase with climate change, but it is uncertain by how much. We studied how future climate and disturbances might impact vegetation with a simulation model. Our findings highlight the importance of considering both factors, with future disturbance patterns posing significant uncertainty. More research is needed to understand their future development.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Lukas Hörtnagl, Luana Krebs, Nicola Arriga, Mirco Migliavacca, Marilyn Roland, Bert Gielen, Leonardo Montagnani, Enrico Tomelleri, Ladislav Šigut, Matthias Peichl, Peng Zhao, Marius Schmidt, Thomas Grünwald, Mika Korkiakoski, Annalea Lohila, and Nina Buchmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2964, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Effect of winter warming on forest CO2 fluxes has rarely been investigated. We tested the effect of the warm winter in 2020 on the forest CO2 fluxes across 14 sites in Europe and found that in colder sites net ecosystem productivity (NEP) declined during the warm winter, while in the warmer sites NEP increased. Warming leads to increased respiration fluxes but if not translated into a direct warming of the soil might not enhance productivity, if the soil within the rooting zone remains frozen.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Cited articles
Adamoli, J., Sennhauser, E., Acero, J. M., and Rescia, A.: Stress and disturbance: vegetation dynamics in the dry Chaco region of Argentina, J. Biogeogr., 17, 491–500, 1990.
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H., Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J. H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A., and Cobb, N.: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests, Forest Ecol. Manage., 259, 660–684, 2010.
Anyamba, A. and Tucker, C. J.: Analysis of S}ahelian vegetation dynamics using {NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981–2003, J. Arid Environ., 63, 596–614, 2005.
Archer, S., Schimel, D. S., and Holland, E. A.: Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land use, climate or CO2?, Clim. Change, 29, 91–99, 1995.
Archer, S., Boutton, T. W., and Hibbard, K. A.: Trees in grasslands: biogeochemical consequences of woody plant expansion, in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles in the Climate System, 115–138, Academic Pres, San Diego, 2001.
Archibald, S. and Scholes, R. J.: Leaf green-up in a semi-arid African savanna-separating tree and grass responses to environmental cues, J. Veg. Sci., 18, 583–594, 2007.
Archibald, S., Roy, D. P., van Wilgen, B. W., and Scholes, R. J.: What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 613–630, 2009.
Archibald, S., Scholes, R. J., Roy, D. P., Roberts, G., and Boschetti, L.: Southern African fire regimes as revealed by remote sensing, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 19, 861–878, 2010.
Asner, G. P.: Biophysical and biochemical sources of variability in canopy reflectance, Remote Sens. Environ., 64, 234–253, 1998.
Asrar, G., Fuchs, M., Kanemasu, E. T., and Hatfield, J. L.: Estimating absorbed photosynthetic radiation and leaf area index from spectral reflectance in wheat, Agron. J., 76, 300–306, 1984.
Asner, G. P., Borghi, C. E., and Ojeda, R. A.: Desertification in central Argentina: changes in ecosystem carbon and nitrogen from imaging spectroscopy, Ecol. Appl., 13, 629–648, 2003.
Asner, G. P., Elmore, A. J., Olander, L. P., Martin, R. E., and Harris, A. T.: Grazing systems, ecosystem responses, and global change, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 29, 261–299, 2004.
Bai, Z. G., Dent, D. L., Olsson, L., and Schaepman, M. E.: Proxy global assessment of land degradation, Soil Use Manage., 24, 223–234, 2008.
Beck, H. E., McVicar, T. R., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Schellekens, J., de Jeu, R. A. M., and Bruijnzeel, L. A.: Global evaluation of four AVHRR-NDVI data sets: Intercomparison and assessment against Landsat imagery, Remote Sens. Environ., 115, 2547–2563, 2011.
Bond, W. J. and Keeley, J. E.: Fire as a global 'herbivore': the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems, Trends Ecol. Evol., 20, 387–394, 2005.
Bond, W. J. and Midgley, G. F.: Carbon dioxide and the uneasy interactions of trees and savannah grasses, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 367, 601–612, 2012.
Bond, W. J., Midgley, G. F., and Woodward, F. I.: The importance of low atmospheric CO2 and fire in promoting the spread of grasslands and savannas, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 973–982, 2003.
Bond, W. J., Woodward, F. I., and Midgley, G. F.: The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire, New Phytol., 165, 525–538, 2005.
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J. K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Carlson, J. M., Cochrane, M. A., D'Antonio, C. M., DeFries, R. S., Doyle, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., Kull, C. A., Marston, J. B., Moritz, M. A., Prentice, I. C., Roos, C. I., Scott, A. C., Swetnam, T. W., Werf, v. d. G. R., and Pyne, S. J.: Fire in the Earth system, Science, 324, 481–484, 2009.
Breshears, D. D.: The grassland-forest continuum: trends in ecosystem properties for woody plant mosaics?, Front. Ecol. Environ., 4, 96–104, 2006.
Briggs, J. M., Knapp, A. K., Blair, J. M., Heisler, J. L., Hoch, G. A., Lett, M. S., and McCarron, J. K.: An ecosystem in transition: causes and consequences of the conversion of mesic grassland to shrubland, BioScience, 55, 243–254, 2005.
Brown, M. E., Pinzón, J. E., Didan, K., Morisette, J. T., and Tucker, C. J.: Evaluation of the consistency of long-term NDVI time series derived from AVHRR, SPOT}-Vegetation, SeaWiFS, MODIS, and {Landsat ETM+ sensors, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 44, 1787–1793, 2006.
Buitenwerf, R., Bond, W. J., Stevens, N., and Trollope, W. S. W.: Increased tree densities in South African savannas:> 50 years of data suggests CO2 as a driver, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 675–684, 2011.
Carlson, T. N. and Ripley, D. A.: On the relation between NDVI, fractional vegetation cover, and leaf area index, Remote Sens. Environ., 62, 241–252, 1997.
de Jeu, R. A. M.: Retrieval of Land Surface Parameters using Passive Microwave Remote Sensing, Ph.D. thesis, VU University, Amsterdam, 2003.
de Jong, R., de Bruin, S., de Wit, A., Schaepman, M. E., and Dent, D. L.: Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series, Remote Sens. Environ., 115, 692–702, 2011.
Dorigo, W., de Jeu, R. A. M., Chung, D., Parinussa, R. M., Liu, Y. Y. Wagner, W., and Fernández-Prieto, D.: Evaluating global trends (1988–2010) in harmonized multi-satellite surface soil moisture, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052988, 2012.
Donohue, R. J., McVicar, T. R., and Roderick, M. L.: Climate-related trends in Australian vegetation cover as inferred from satellite observations, 1981–2006, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 1025–1039, 2009.
Donohue, R. J., Roderick, M. L., McVicar, T. R., and Farquhar, G. D.: Impact of CO2 fertilisation on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3031–3035, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50563, 2013.
Dore, M. H. I.: Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know?, Environ. Int., 31, 1167–1181, 2005.
Drake, B. G., Gonzàlez-Meler, M. A., and Long, S. P.: More efficient plants: a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2?, Ann. Rev. Plant Biol., 48, 609–639, 1997.
Evans, J. and Geerken, R.: Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland degradation, J. Arid Environ., 57, 535–554, 2004.
Farquhar, G. D.: Carbon dioxide and vegetation, Science, 278, 1411–1411, 1997.
Fensham, R. J., Fairfax, R. J., and Archer, S. R.: Rainfall, land use and woody vegetation cover change in semi-arid Australian savanna, J. Ecol., 93, 596–606, 2005.
Fensholt, R., and Proud, S. R.: Evaluation of E}arth Observation based global long term vegetation trends—Comparing {GIMMS and MODIS global NDVI time series, Remote Sens. Environ., 119, 131–147, 2012.
Fensholt, R., Langanke, T., Rasmussen, K., Reenberg, A., Prince, S. D., Tucker, C. J., Scholes, R. J., Bao Le, Q., Bondeau, A., Eastman, R., Epstein, H., Gaughan, A. E., Hellden, U., Mbow, C., Olsson, L., Paruelo, J., Schweitzer, C., Seaquist, J., and Wessels, K.: Greenness in semi-arid areas across the globe 1981–2007 – an Earth Observing Satellite based analysis of trends and drivers, Remote Sens. Environ., 121, 144–158, 2012.
Flannigan, M. D., Krawchuk, M. A., De Groot, W. J., Wotton, B. M., and Gowman, L. M.: Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 483–507, 2009.
Franks, J. P., Adams, M. A., Amthor, J. S., Barbour, M. M., Berry, J. A., Ellsworth, D. S., Farquhar, G. D., Ghannoum, O., Lloyd, J. McDowell, N., Norby, R. J., Tissue, D. T., and von Caemmerer, S.: Sensitivity of plants to changing atmospheric CO2 concentration: from the geological past to the next century, New Phytol., 197, 1077–1094, 2013.
Giglio, L., Loboda, T., Roy, D. P., Quayle, B., and Justice, C. O.: An active-fire based burned area mapping algorithm for the MODIS sensor, Remote Sens. Environ., 113, 408–420, 2009.
Gouweleeuw, B. T., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Guerschman, J. P., Dyce, P., and Owe, M.: Space-based passive microwave soil moisture retrievals and the correction for a dynamic open water fraction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1635–1645, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1635-2012, 2012.
Grau, H. R., Gasparri, N. I., and Aide, T. M.: Agriculture expansion and deforestation in seasonally dry forests of north-west Argentina, Environ. Conserv., 32, 140–148, 2005.
Hansen, M. C., DeFries, R. S., Townshend, J. R. G., and Sohlberg, R.: Global land cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using a classification tree approach, Int. J. Remote Sens., 21, 1331–1364, 2000.
Heisler, J. L., Briggs, J. M., and Knapp, A. K.: Long-term patterns of shrub expansion in a C4-dominated grassland: fire frequency and the dynamics of shrub cover and abundance, Am. J. Bot., 90, 423–428, 2003.
Herrmann, S. M., Anyamba, A., and Tucker, C. J.: Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate, Global Environmental Change Part A, 15, 394–404, 2005.
Higgins, S. I. and Scheiter, S.: Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally, Nature, 488, 209–212, 2012.
Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G., and Jarvis, A.: Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1965–1978, 2005.
House, J. I., Archer, S., Breshears, D. D., and Scholes, R. J.: Conundrums in mixed woody–herbaceous plant systems, J. Biogeogr., 30, 1763–1777, 2003.
Jackson, T. J., Schmugge, T. J., and Wang, J. R.: Passive microwave sensing of soil moisture under vegetation canopies, Water Resour. Res., 18, 1137–1142, 1982.
Jahnke, H. E.: Livestock production systems and livestock development in tropical Africa, Kieler Wissenschaftsverlag Vauk: Kiel, available from: http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaan484.pdf, 1982.
Jeyaseelan, A. T., Roy, P. S., and Young, S. S.: Persistent changes in NDVI between 1982 and 2003 over I}ndia using AVHRR {GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) data, Int. J. Remote Sens., 28, 4927–4946, 2007.
Jones, P. and Harris, I.: CRU Time Series (TS) high resolution gridded datasets, university of East Anglia Research Unit (CRU) NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre, available from http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.ac.uk__ATOM__dataent_1256223773328276, 2008.
Jones, M. O., Jones, L. A., Kimball, J. S., and McDonald, K. C.: Satellite passive microwave remote sensing for monitoring global land surface phenology, Remote Sens. Environ., 115, 1102–1114, 2011.
Jones, M. O., Kimball, J. S., Jones, L. A., and McDonald, K. C.: Satellite passive microwave detection of North America start of season, Remote Sens. Environ., 123, 324–333, 2012.
Kaufman, Y. J., Justice, C. O., Flynn, L. P., Kendall, J. D., Prins, E. M., Giglio, L., Ward, D. E., Menzel, W. P., and Setzer, A. W.: Potential global fire monitoring from EOS-MODIS, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 32 215–32, 1998.
Keenan, T. F., Hollinger, D. Y., Bohrer, G., Dragoni, D., Munger, J. W., Schmid, H. P., and Richardson, A. D.: Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise, Nature, 499, 324–327, 2013.
Kirdiashev, K. P., Chukhlantsev, A. A., and Shutko, A. M.: Microwave radiation of the Earth's surface in the presence of vegetation cover, Radio Eng. Electron. P., 24, 37–44, 1979.
Koenig, W. D.: Global patterns of environmental synchrony and the Moran effect, Ecography, 25, 283–288, 2002.
Lehmann, C. E. R., Archibald, S. A., Hoffmann, W. A., and Bond, W. J.: Deciphering the distribution of the savanna biome, New Phytol., 191, 197–209, 2011.
Liu, Y. Y., de Jeu, R. A. M., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., and Owe, M.: TRMM-TMI satellite observed soil moisture and vegetation density (1998–2005) show strong connection with El Niño in eastern Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030311, 2007.
Liu, Y. Y., de Jeu, R. A. M., McCabe, M. F., Evans, J. P., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Global long-term passive microwave satellite-based retrievals of vegetation optical depth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048684, 2011a.
Liu, Y. Y., Parinussa, R. M., Dorigo, W. A., De Jeu, R. A. M., Wagner, W., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., McCabe, M. F., and Evans, J. P.: Developing an improved soil moisture dataset by blending passive and active microwave satellite-based retrievals, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 425–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-425-2011, 2011b.
Liu, Y. Y., Dijk, A. I. J. M., McCabe, M. F., Evans, J. P., and de Jeu, R. A. M.: Global vegetation biomass change (1988–2008) and attribution to environmental and human drivers, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 22, 692–705, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12024, 2013a.
Liu, Y. Y., Evans, J. P., McCabe, M. F., de Jeu, R. A. M., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Dolman, A. J., and Saizen, I.: Changing Climate and Overgrazing Are Decimating Mongolian Steppes, PloS one, 8, e57599, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0057599, 2013b.
Lu, H., Raupach, M. R., McVicar, T. R., and Barrett, D. J.: Decomposition of vegetation cover into woody and herbaceous components using AVHRR NDVI time series, Remote Sens. Environ., 86, 1–18, 2003.
McMahon, S. M., Parker, G. G., and Miller, D. R.: Evidence for a recent increase in forest growth, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 3611–3615, 2010.
McVicar, T. R. and Jupp, D. L. B.: The current and potential operational uses of remote sensing to aid decisions on drought exceptional circumstances in Australia: a review, Agr. Syst., 57, 399–468, 1998.
McVicar, T. R., Roderick, M. L., Donohue, R. J., Li, L. T., Van Niel, T. G., Thomas, A., Grieser, J., Jhajharia, D., Himri, Y., Mahowald, N. M., Mescherskaya, A. V., Kruger, A. C., Rehman, S., Dinpashoh, Y., and Rehman, S.: Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds: Implications for evaporation, J. Hydrol., 416–417, 182–205, 2012.
Meesters, A. G. C. A., De Jeu, R. A. M., and Owe, M.: Analytical derivation of the vegetation optical depth from the microwave polarization difference index, IEEE Geosci. Remote S., 2, 121–123, 2005.
Monsi, M. and Saeki, T.: On the factor light in plant communities and its importance for matter production, Ann. Bot.-London, 95, 549–567, 2005.
NASA: Land Processes Distribute Active Archive Center, MODIS/Terra+Aqua Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG V005, US Geological Survey, available from: ftp://e4ftl01.cr.usgs.gov/MOTA/MCD12C1.005/2008.01.01/, 2008.
Neigh, C. S., Tucker, C. J., and Townshend, J. R.: North American vegetation dynamics observed with multi-resolution satellite data, Remote Sens. Environ., 112, 1749–1772, 2008.
Nemani, R. R., Keeling, C. D., Hashimoto, H., Jolly, W. M., Piper, S. C., Tucker, C. J., Myneni, R. B., and Running, S. W.: Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999, Science, 300, 1560–1563, 2003.
Northup, B. K., Zitzer, S. F., Archer, S., McMurtry, C. R., and Boutton, T. W.: Above-ground biomass and carbon and nitrogen content of woody species in a subtropical thornscrub parkland, J. Arid Environ., 62, 23–43, 2005.
Oldeland, J., Dorigo, W., Wesuls, D., and Jürgens, N.: Mapping bush encroaching species by seasonal differences in hyperspectral imagery, Remote Sens., 2, 1416–1438, 2010.
Ovington, J. D., Haitkamp, D., and Lawrence, D. B.: Plant biomass and productivity of prairie, savanna, oakwood, and maize field ecosystems in central Minnesota, Ecology, 44, 52–63, 1963.
Owe, M., de Jeu, R. A. M., and Walker, J.: A methodology for surface soil moisture and vegetation optical depth retrieval using the microwave polarization difference index, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 39, 1643–1654, 2001.
Owe, M., de Jeu, R. A. M., and Holmes, T. R. H.: Multi-Sensor Historical Climatology of Satellite-Derived Global Land Surface Moisture, J. Geophys. Res., 113, F01002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JF000769, 2008.
Pettorelli, N., Vik, J. O., Mysterud, A., Gaillard, J. M., Tucker, C. J., and Stenseth, N. C.: Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change, Trends Ecol. Evol., 20, 503–510, 2005.
Piao, S. L., Fang, J. Y., Zhou, L. M., Guo, Q. H., Henderson, M., Ji, W., Li, Y., and Tao, S.: Interannual variations of monthly and seasonal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in China from 1982 to 1999, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002848, 2003.
Reich, P. B., Walters, M. B., and Ellsworth, D. S.: From tropics to tundra: global convergence in plant functioning, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 94, 13730–13734, 1997.
Reich, P. B., Wright, I. J., Cavender-Bares, J., Craine, J. M., Oleksyn, J., Westoby, M., and Walters, M. B.: The evolution of plant functional variation: traits, spectra, and strategies, Int. J. Plant Sci., 164, S143–S164, 2003.
Roberts, D. A., Smith, M. O., and Adams, J. B.: Green vegetation, nonphotosynthetic vegetation, and soils in AVIRIS data, Remote Sens. Environ., 44, 255–269, 1993.
Roberts, D. A., Gardner, M., Church, R., Ustin, S., Scheer, G., and Green, R. O.: Mapping chaparral in the Santa Monica Mountains using multiple endmember spectral mixture models, Remote Sens. Environ., 65, 267–279, 1998.
Robinson, T. P., Franceschini, G., and Wint, W.: The Food and Agriculture Organization's gridded livestock of the world, Veterinaria Italiana, 43, 745–751, 2007.
Roderick, M. L., Berry, S. L., Saunders, A. R., and Noble, I. R.: On the relationship between the composition, morphology and function of leaves, Funct. Ecol., 13, 696–710, 1999a.
Roderick, M. L., Noble, I. R., and Cridland, S. W.: Estimating woody and herbaceous vegetation cover from time series satellite observations, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 8, 501–508, 1999b.
Roderick, M. L., Berry, S. L., and Noble, I. R.: A framework for understanding the relationship between environment and vegetation based on the surface area to volume ratio of leaves, Funct. Ecol., 14, 423–437, 2000.
Rossatto, D. R., da Silveira Lobo Sternberg, L., and Franco, A. C.: The partitioning of water uptake between growth forms in a Neotropical savanna: do herbs exploit a third water source niche?, Plant Biol., 15, 84–92, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1438-8677.2012.00618.x, 2013.
Rouse, J. W., Haas, R. H., Schell, J. A., Deering, D. W., and Harlan, J. C.: Monitoring the vernal advancement of retrogradation of natural vegetation, NASA}/{GSFC, Tech. rep., Greenbeld, MD, 1974.
Sankaran, M., Hanan, N. P., Scholes, R. J., Ratnam, J., Augustine, D. J., Cade, B. S., Gignoux, J., Higgins, S. I., Le Roux, X., Ludwig, F., Ardo, J., Banyikwa, F., Bronn, A., Bucini, G., Caylor, K. K., Coughenour, M. B., Diouf, A., Ekaya, W., Feral, C. J., February, E. C., Frost, P. H., Hiernayx, P., Hrabar, H., Metzger, K. L., Prins, H. H. T., Ringrose, S., Sea, W., Tews, J., Worden, J., and Zambatis, N.: Determinants of woody cover in African savannas, Nature, 438, 846–849, 2005.
Sankey, J. B., Ravi, S., Wallace, C. S. A., Webb, R. H., and Huxman, T. E.: Quantifying soil surface change in degraded drylands: Shrub encroachment and effects of fire and vegetation removal in a desert grassland, J. Geophys. Res., 117, G02025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JG002002, 2012.
Sen, P. K.: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379–1389, 1968.
Shi, J., Jackson, T., Tao, J., Du, J., Bindlish, R., Lu, L., and Chen, K. S.: Microwave vegetation indices for short vegetation covers from satellite passive microwave sensor AMSR-E, Remote Sens. Environ., 112, 4285–4300, 2008.
Sternberg, M. and Shoshany, M.: Aboveground biomass allocation and water content relationships in Mediterranean trees and shrubs in two climatological regions in Israel, Plant Ecol., 157, 173–181, 2001.
Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, Proceedings of Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen, 53, 386–392, 521–525, 1397–1412, 1950.
Tietjen, B., Jeltsch, F., Zehe, E., Classen, N., Groengroeft, A., Schiffers, K., and Oldeland, J.: Effects of climate change on the coupled dynamics of water and vegetation in drylands, Ecohydrology, 3, 226–237, 2010.
Tottrup, C. and Rasmussen, M. S.: Mapping long-term changes in savannah crop productivity in Senegal through trend analysis of time series of remote sensing data, Agriculture, Ecosyst. Environ., 103, 545–560, 2004.
Tucker, C. J.: Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation, Remote Sens. Environ., 8, 127–150, 1979.
Tucker, C. J., Vanpraet, C. L., Sharman, M. J., and Van Ittersum, G.: Satellite remote sensing of total herbaceous biomass production in the Senegalese Sahel: 1980–1984, Remote Sens. Environ., 17, 233–249, 1985.
Tucker, C. J., Slayback, D. A., Pinzon, J. E., Los, S. O., Myneni, R. B., and Taylor, M. G.: Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999, Int. J. Biometeorol., 45, 184–190, 2001.
Tucker, C. J., Pinzon, J. E., Brown, M. E., Slayback, D. A., Pak, E. W., Mahoney, R., Vermote, E. F., and El Saleous, N.: An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data, Int. J. Remote Sens., 26, 4485–4498, 2005.
Van Auken, O. W.: Shrub invasions of North American semiarid grasslands, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 31, 197–215, 2000.
Vegten, J. A.: Thornbush invasion in a savanna ecosystem in eastern Botswana, Plant Ecol., 56, 3–7, 1984.
Wang, Q., Adiku, S., Tenhunen, J., and Granier, A.: On the relationship of NDVI with leaf area index in a deciduous forest site, Remote Sens. Environ., 94, 244–255, 2005.
Wada, Y., van Beek, L. P. H., van Kempen, C. M., Reckman, J. W. T. M., Vasak, S., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global depletion of groundwater resources, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044571, 2010.
Wessels, K. J., Prince, S. D., Malherbe, J., Small, J., Frost, P. E., and VanZyl, D.: Can human-induced land degradation be distinguished from the effects of rainfall variability? A case study in South Africa, J. Arid Environ., 68, 271–297, 2007.
Wigneron, J. P., Kerr, Y., Chanzy, A., and Jin, Y. Q.: Inversion of surface parameters from passive microwave measurements over a soybean field, Remote Sens. Environ., 46, 61–72, 1993.
Zomer, R. J., Trabucco, A., Bossio, D. A., and Verchot, L. V.: Climate change mitigation: A spatial analysis of global land suitability for clean development mechanism afforestation and reforestation, Agr. Ecosys. Environ., 126, 67–80, 2008.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint