Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1071-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1071-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Feb 2016
Research article |
| 23 Feb 2016
Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble
M. Steinacher
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
Gianna Battaglia, Marco Steinacher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 13, 2823–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) influences the distribution of CO2 between atmosphere and ocean, and thereby climate. We constrain export of biogenic CaCO3 (globally: 0.72–1.05 Gt C yr−1) and dissolution within the water column (~ 80 %) in a novel Monte Carlo set-up with the Bern3D model based on alkalinity data. Whether CaCO3 dissolves in the upper ocean remains unresolved. We recommend using constant (saturation-independent) dissolution rates in Earth system models.
R. Spahni, F. Joos, B. D. Stocker, M. Steinacher, and Z. C. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 1287–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Y. Yara, M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber, and Y. Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 9, 4955–4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012, 2012
Markus Adloff, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Thomas F. Stocker, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 21, 571–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-571-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated how different processes affected the carbon cycle over the last eight glacial cycles. We found that the effects of interactive marine sediments enlarge the carbon fluxes that result from these processes, especially in the ocean, and alter various proxy signals. We provide an assessment of the directions of regional and global proxy changes that might be expected in response to different glacial–interglacial Earth system changes in the presence of interactive marine sediments.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Fortunat Joos, Sebastian Lienert, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 19–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
How plants regulate their exchange of CO2 and water with the atmosphere under global warming is critical for their carbon uptake and their cooling influence. We analyze the isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 and detect no significant decadal trends in the seasonal cycle amplitude. The data are consistent with the regulation towards leaf CO2 and intrinsic water use efficiency growing proportionally to atmospheric CO2, in contrast to recent suggestions of downregulation of CO2 and water fluxes.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Markus Adloff, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 20, 1233–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an ocean current that transports heat into the North Atlantic. Over the ice age cycles, AMOC strength and its spatial pattern varied. We tested the role of heat forcing for these AMOC changes by simulating the temperature changes of the last eight glacial cycles. In our model, AMOC shifts between four distinct circulation modes caused by heat and salt redistributions that reproduce reconstructed long-term North Atlantic SST changes.
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Luke Skinner, Francois Primeau, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Peter Köhler, and Edouard Bard
Clim. Past, 19, 2177–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Radiocarbon is best known as a dating tool, but it also allows us to track CO2 exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. Using decades of data and novel mapping methods, we have charted the ocean’s average radiocarbon ″age” since the last Ice Age. Combined with climate model simulations, these data quantify the ocean’s role in atmospheric CO2 rise since the last Ice Age while also revealing that Earth likely received far more cosmic radiation during the last Ice Age than hitherto believed.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4431–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Loïc Schmidely, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jochen Schmitt, Juhyeong Han, Lucas Silva, Jinwha Shin, Fortunat Joos, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 1627–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using ancient gas trapped in polar glaciers, we reconstructed the atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide over the penultimate deglaciation to study their response to major climate changes. We show this deglaciation to be characterized by modes of methane and nitrous oxide variability that are also found during the last deglaciation and glacial cycle.
Jurek Müller and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 18, 3657–3687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present long-term projections of global peatland area and carbon with a continuous transient history since the Last Glacial Maximum. Our novel results show that large parts of today’s northern peatlands are at risk from past and future climate change, with larger emissions clearly connected to larger risks. The study includes comparisons between different emission and land-use scenarios, driver attribution through factorial simulations, and assessments of uncertainty from climate forcing.
Shannon A. Bengtson, Laurie C. Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Lise Missiaen, Carlye D. Peterson, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The last interglacial was a warm period that may provide insights into future climates. Here, we compile and analyse stable carbon isotope data from the ocean during the last interglacial and compare it to the Holocene. The data show that Atlantic Ocean circulation was similar during the last interglacial and the Holocene. We also establish a difference in the mean oceanic carbon isotopic ratio between these periods, which was most likely caused by burial and weathering carbon fluxes.
Jurek Müller and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 5285–5308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an in-depth model analysis of transient peatland area and carbon dynamics over the last 22 000 years. Our novel results show that the consideration of both gross positive and negative area changes are necessary to understand the transient evolution of peatlands and their net effect on atmospheric carbon. The study includes the attributions to drivers through factorial simulations, assessments of uncertainty from climate forcing, and determination of the global net carbon balance.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Ashley Dinauer, Florian Adolphi, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 16, 1159–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1159-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Despite intense focus on the ~ 190 ‰ drop in Δ14C across the deglacial
mystery interval, the specific mechanisms responsible for the apparent Δ14C excess in the glacial atmosphere have received considerably less attention. Sensitivity experiments with the computationally efficient Bern3D Earth system model suggest that our inability to reproduce the elevated Δ14C levels during the last glacial may reflect an underestimation of 14C production and/or a biased-high reconstruction of Δ14C.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Angélique Hameau, Thomas L. Frölicher, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 1877–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean deoxygenation and warming are observed and projected to intensify under continued greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas temperature is considered the main climate change indicator, we show that in certain regions, thermocline doxygenation may be detectable before warming.
Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 16, 423–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-423-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Perturbations in atmospheric CO2 and in its isotopic composition, e.g., in response to carbon release from the land biosphere or from fossil fuel burning, evolve differently in time. We use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to show that fluxes to and from the solid Earth play an important role in removing these perturbations from the atmosphere over thousands of years.
Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, Michael Bock, Barbara Seth, Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Sebastian Lienert, Gianna Battaglia, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrian Schilt, and Edward J. Brook
Biogeosciences, 16, 3997–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
N2O concentrations were subject to strong variations accompanying glacial–interglacial but also rapid climate changes over the last 21 kyr. The sources of these N2O changes can be identified by measuring the isotopic composition of N2O in ice cores and using the distinct isotopic composition of terrestrial and marine N2O. We show that both marine and terrestrial sources increased from the last glacial to the Holocene but that only terrestrial emissions responded quickly to rapid climate changes.
Olli Peltola, Timo Vesala, Yao Gao, Olle Räty, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Bogdan Chojnicki, Ankur R. Desai, Albertus J. Dolman, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Mathias Göckede, Manuel Helbig, Elyn Humphreys, Robert B. Jackson, Georg Jocher, Fortunat Joos, Janina Klatt, Sara H. Knox, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Sebastian Lienert, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Daniel F. Nadeau, Mats B. Nilsson, Walter C. Oechel, Matthias Peichl, Thomas Pypker, William Quinton, Janne Rinne, Torsten Sachs, Mateusz Samson, Hans Peter Schmid, Oliver Sonnentag, Christian Wille, Donatella Zona, and Tuula Aalto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1263–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Here we develop a monthly gridded dataset of northern (> 45 N) wetland methane (CH4) emissions. The data product is derived using a random forest machine-learning technique and eddy covariance CH4 fluxes from 25 wetland sites. Annual CH4 emissions from these wetlands calculated from the derived data product are comparable to prior studies focusing on these areas. This product is an independent estimate of northern wetland CH4 emissions and hence could be used, e.g. for process model evaluation.
Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Gianna Battaglia, Olivier Cartapanis, Samuel L. Jaccard, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 15, 849–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-849-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-849-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A long-standing question in climate science is concerned with what processes contributed to the increase in atmospheric CO2 after the last ice age. From the range of possible processes we try to constrain the change in carbon storage in the land biosphere. By combining ice core and marine sediment data in a modeling framework we show that the carbon storage in the land biosphere increased largely after the last ice age. This will help to further understand processes at work in the Earth system.
Angélique Hameau, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 16, 1755–1780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1755-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1755-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The observed decrease of oxygen and warming in the ocean may adversely affect marine ecosystems and their services. We analyse results from an Earth system model for the last millennium and the 21st century. We find changes in temperature and oxygen due to fossil fuel burning and other human activities to exceed natural variations in many ocean regions already today. Natural variability is biased low in earlier studies neglecting forcing from past volcanic eruptions and solar change.
Gianna Battaglia and Fortunat Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Human-caused, climate change hazards in the ocean continue to aggravate over a very long time. For business as usual, we project the ocean oxygen content to decrease by 40 % over the next thousand years. This would likely have severe consequences for marine life. Global warming and oxygen loss are linked, and meeting the warming target of the Paris Climate Agreement effectively limits related marine hazards. Developments over many thousands of years should be considered to assess marine risks.
Fortunat Joos and Brigitte Buchmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7841–7842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7841-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7841-2018, 2018
Kuno M. Strassmann and Fortunat Joos
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1887-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1887-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) is a free open-source re-implementation of a reduced-form carbon cycle–climate model widely used in science and IPCC assessments. BernSCM supports up to decadal time steps with high accuracy and is suitable for studies with high computational load, e.g., integrated assessment models (IAMs). Further applications include climate risk assessment in a business, public, or educational context and the estimation of benefits of emission mitigation options.
Sebastian Lienert and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 15, 2909–2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation, shifting cultivation and wood harvesting cause large carbon emissions, altering climate. We apply a dynamic global vegetation model in a probabilistic framework. Diverse observations are assimilated to establish an optimally performing model and a large ensemble of model versions. Land-use carbon emissions are reported for individual countries, regions and the world. We find that parameter-related uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude as process-related effects.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Kathrin M. Keller, Sebastian Lienert, Anil Bozbiyik, Thomas F. Stocker, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), David C. Frank, Stefan Klesse, Charles D. Koven, Markus Leuenberger, William J. Riley, Matthias Saurer, Rolf Siegwolf, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 14, 2641–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, 2017
Sifan Gu, Zhengyu Liu, Alexandra Jahn, Johannes Rempfer, Jiaxu Zhang, and Fortunat Joos
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-40, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is the documentation of the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes in the ocean model of CESM. Our model can simulate both Nd concentration and Nd isotope ratio in good agreement with observations. Our Nd-enabled ocean model makes it possible for direct model-data comparison in paleoceanographic studies, which can help to resolve some uncertainties and controversies in our understanding of past ocean evolution. Therefore, our model provides a useful tool for paleoclimate studies.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Sonja G. Keel, Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Matthias Saurer, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Stefan Klesse
Biogeosciences, 13, 3869–3886, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3869-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3869-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Records of stable oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings are valuable tools for reconstructing past climatic conditions. So far, they have not been used in global dynamic vegetation models. Here we present a model that simulates oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings. Our results compare well with measurements performed in European forests. The model is useful for studying oxygen isotope patterns of tree ring cellulose at large spatial and temporal scales.
Gianna Battaglia, Marco Steinacher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 13, 2823–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) influences the distribution of CO2 between atmosphere and ocean, and thereby climate. We constrain export of biogenic CaCO3 (globally: 0.72–1.05 Gt C yr−1) and dissolution within the water column (~ 80 %) in a novel Monte Carlo set-up with the Bern3D model based on alkalinity data. Whether CaCO3 dissolves in the upper ocean remains unresolved. We recommend using constant (saturation-independent) dissolution rates in Earth system models.
B. D. Stocker and F. Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-731-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-731-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates for land use change CO2 emissions (eLUC) rely on different approaches, implying conceptual differences of what eLUC represents. We use an Earth System Model and quantify differences between two commonly applied methods to be ~20% for historical eLUC but increasing under a future scenario. We decompose eLUC into component fluxes, quantify them, and discuss best practices for global carbon budget accountings and model-data intercomparisons relying on different methods to estimate eLUC.
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
B. D. Stocker, R. Spahni, and F. Joos
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3089–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3089-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3089-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of inundation is key to understanding the role of wetlands under past and future climate change. Here, we describe and assess the DYPTOP model that predicts the extent of inundation and the global spatial distribution of peatlands. DYPTOP makes use of high-resolution topography information and uses ecosystem water balance and peatland soil C balance criteria to simulate peatland spatial dynamics and carbon accumulation.
M. Gehlen, R. Séférian, D. O. B. Jones, T. Roy, R. Roth, J. Barry, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, C. Heinze, F. Joos, J. C. Orr, L. Resplandy, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates potential impacts of pH reductions on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to latest IPCC scenarios.Multi-model projections of pH changes over the seafloor are analysed with reference to a critical threshold based on palaeo-oceanographic studies, contemporary observations and model results. By 2100 under the most severe IPCC CO2 scenario, pH reductions occur over ~23% of deep-sea canyons and ~8% of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as marine protected areas.
R. Roth, S. P. Ritz, and F. Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 321–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-321-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-321-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
B. Ringeval, S. Houweling, P. M. van Bodegom, R. Spahni, R. van Beek, F. Joos, and T. Röckmann
Biogeosciences, 11, 1519–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1519-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1519-2014, 2014
R. Schneider, J. Schmitt, P. Köhler, F. Joos, and H. Fischer
Clim. Past, 9, 2507–2523, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2507-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2507-2013, 2013
R. Roth and F. Joos
Clim. Past, 9, 1879–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013, 2013
R. Spahni, F. Joos, B. D. Stocker, M. Steinacher, and Z. C. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 1287–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
S. Zürcher, R. Spahni, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, and H. Fischer
Biogeosciences, 10, 1963–1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1963-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1963-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Y. Yara, M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber, and Y. Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 9, 4955–4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Effects of pH/pCO2 fluctuations on photosynthesis and fatty acid composition of two marine diatoms, with reference to consequences of coastal acidification
Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species
Modelling ozone-induced changes in wheat amino acids and protein quality using a process-based crop model
Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean
Assessment framework to predict sensitivity of marine calcifiers to ocean alkalinity enhancement – identification of biological thresholds and importance of precautionary principle
Review and syntheses: Ocean alkalinity enhancement and carbon dioxide removal through marine enhanced rock weathering using olivine
Particle fluxes by subtropical pelagic communities under ocean alkalinity enhancement
Responses of field-grown maize to different soil types, water regimes, and contrasting vapor pressure deficit
Effect of the 2022 summer drought across forest types in Europe
Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget
Projected changes in forest fire season, the number of fires, and burnt area in Fennoscandia by 2100
New ozone–nitrogen model shows early senescence onset is the primary cause of ozone-induced reduction in grain quality of wheat
Ocean alkalinity enhancement approaches and the predictability of runaway precipitation processes: results of an experimental study to determine critical alkalinity ranges for safe and sustainable application scenarios
Variations of polyphenols and carbohydrates of Emiliania huxleyi grown under simulated ocean acidification conditions
Assessing the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 and its sensitivity to different carbon cycle processes
Foliar nutrient uptake from dust sustains plant nutrition
Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion
Selecting allometric equations to estimate forest biomass from plot- rather than individual-level predictive performance
The biological and preformed carbon pumps in perpetually slower and warmer oceans
The Effectiveness of Agricultural Carbon Dioxide Removal using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model
The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5
Mapping the future afforestation distribution of China constrained by a national afforestation plan and climate change
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land-surface properties of the boreal forest
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestion for improved simulation of CO2 concentration
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Divergent responses of evergreen needle-leaf forests in Europe to the 2020 warm winter
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the increase in ocean acidity extremes in the northeastern Pacific
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Alkalinity biases in CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for simulated CO2 drawdown via artificial alkalinity enhancement
Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Yu Shang, Jingmin Qiu, Yuxi Weng, Xin Wang, Di Zhang, Yuwei Zhou, Juntian Xu, and Futian Li
Biogeosciences, 22, 1203–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Research on the influences of dynamic pH on the marine ecosystem is still in its infancy. We manipulated the culturing pH to simulate pH fluctuation and found lower pH could increase eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid production with unaltered growth and photosynthesis in two marine diatoms. It is important to consider pH variation for more accurate predictions regarding the consequences of acidification in coastal waters.
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in a temperature overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may be key in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
Jo Cook, Durgesh Singh Yadav, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 22, 1035–1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1035-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone (O3) pollution reduces wheat yields and quality in India, affecting amino acids essential for nutrition, like lysine and methionine. Here, we improve the DO3SE-CropN model to simulate wheat’s protective processes against O3 and their impact on protein and amino acid concentrations. While the model captures O3-induced yield losses, it underestimates amino acid reductions. Further research is needed to refine the model, enabling future risk assessments of O3's impact on yields and nutrition.
Stéphane Doléac, Marina Lévy, Roy El Hourany, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 22, 841–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The marine biogeochemistry components of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models vary widely in their process representations. Using an innovative bioregionalization of the North Atlantic, we reveal that this model diversity largely drives the divergence in net primary production projections under a high-emission scenario. The identification of the most mechanistically realistic models allows for a substantial reduction in projection uncertainty.
Nina Bednaršek, Hanna van de Mortel, Greg Pelletier, Marisol García-Reyes, Richard A. Feely, and Andrew G. Dickson
Biogeosciences, 22, 473–498, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The environmental impacts of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) are unknown. Our synthesis, based on 68 collected studies with 84 unique species, shows that 35 % of species respond positively, 26 % respond negatively, and 39 % show a neutral response to alkalinity addition. Biological thresholds were found from 50 to 500 µmol kg−1 NaOH addition. A precautionary approach is warranted to avoid potential risks, while current regulatory framework needs improvements to assure safe biological limits.
Luna J. J. Geerts, Astrid Hylén, and Filip J. R. Meysman
Biogeosciences, 22, 355–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-355-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Marine enhanced rock weathering (mERW) with olivine is a promising method for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, yet studies in field conditions are lacking. We bridge the gap between theoretical studies and the real-world environment by estimating the predictability of mERW parameters and identifying aspects to consider when applying mERW. A major source of uncertainty is the lack of experimental studies with sediment, which can heavily influence the speed and efficiency of CO2 drawdown.
Philipp Suessle, Jan Taucher, Silvan Urs Goldenberg, Moritz Baumann, Kristian Spilling, Andrea Noche-Ferreira, Mari Vanharanta, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 22, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-71-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-71-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a negative emission technology which may alter marine communities and the particle export they drive. Here, impacts of carbonate-based OAE on the flux and attenuation of sinking particles in an oligotrophic plankton community are presented. Whilst biological parameters remained unaffected, abiotic carbonate precipitation occurred. Among counteracting OAE’s efficiency, it influenced mineral ballasting and particle sinking velocities, requiring monitoring.
Thuy Huu Nguyen, Thomas Gaiser, Jan Vanderborght, Andrea Schnepf, Felix Bauer, Anja Klotzsche, Lena Lärm, Hubert Hüging, and Frank Ewert
Biogeosciences, 21, 5495–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf water potential was at certain thresholds, depending on soil type, water treatment, and weather conditions. In rainfed plots, the lower water availability in the stony soil resulted in fewer roots with a higher root tissue conductance than the silty soil. In the silty soil, higher stress in the rainfed soil led to more roots with a lower root tissue conductance than in the irrigated plot. Crop responses to water stress can be opposite, depending on soil water conditions that are compared.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Jingfeng Xiao, Xing Li, and Nina Buchmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5481–5494, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, Europe's forests faced unprecedented dry conditions. Our study aimed to understand how different forest types respond to extreme drought. Using meteorological data and satellite imagery, we compared 2022 with two previous extreme years, 2003 and 2018. Despite less severe drought in 2022, forests showed a 30 % greater decline in photosynthesis compared to 2018 and 60 % more than 2003. This suggests an alarming level of vulnerability of forests across Europe to more frequent droughts.
Makcim L. De Sisto and Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 21, 4853–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The remaining carbon budget (RCB) represents the allowable future CO2 emissions before a temperature target is reached. Understanding the uncertainty in the RCB is critical for effective climate regulation and policy-making. One major source of uncertainty is the representation of the carbon cycle in Earth system models. We assessed how nutrient limitation affects the estimation of the RCB. We found a reduction in the estimated RCB when nutrient limitation is taken into account.
Outi Kinnunen, Leif Backman, Juha Aalto, Tuula Aalto, and Tiina Markkanen
Biogeosciences, 21, 4739–4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase the risk of forest fires. Ecosystem process model simulations are used to project changes in fire occurrence in Fennoscandia under six climate projections. The findings suggest a longer fire season, more fires, and an increase in burnt area towards the end of the century.
Jo Cook, Clare Brewster, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, Håkan Pleijel, and Lisa Emberson
Biogeosciences, 21, 4809–4835, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4809-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
At ground level, the air pollutant ozone (O3) damages wheat yield and quality. We modified the DO3SE-Crop model to simulate O3 effects on wheat quality and identified onset of leaf death as the key process affecting wheat quality upon O3 exposure. This aligns with expectations, as the onset of leaf death aids nutrient transfer from leaves to grains. Breeders should prioritize wheat varieties resistant to protein loss from delayed leaf death, to maintain yield and quality under O3 exposure.
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 4587–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study observed uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Milagros Rico, Paula Santiago-Díaz, Guillermo Samperio-Ramos, Melchor González-Dávila, and Juana Magdalena Santana-Casiano
Biogeosciences, 21, 4381–4394, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in pH generate stress conditions, either because high pH drastically decreases the availability of trace metals such as Fe(II), a restrictive element for primary productivity, or because reactive oxygen species are increased with low pH. The metabolic functions and composition of microalgae can be affected. These modifications in metabolites are potential factors leading to readjustments in phytoplankton community structure and diversity and possible alteration in marine ecosystems.
Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Bo Liu, and Andrey Ganopolski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to examine how long CO2 emissions will persist in the atmosphere. It shows that the effectiveness of carbon removal processes varies with the amount emitted. The removal of CO2 through silicate weathering is faster than previously thought, leading to a quicker reduction over time. The combined behaviour of different carbon cycle processes emphasizes the need to include all of them in models, as to better predict long-term atmospheric CO2.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, Elnatan Golan, Ran Erel, Daniele Andronico, and Avner Gross
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2531, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how chickpea plants can absorb essential nutrients like phosphorus, iron, and nickel directly from dust deposited on their leaves, in addition to uptake through their roots. This process was particularly effective under higher levels of atmospheric CO2, leading to increased plant growth. By using Nd isotopic tools, we traced the nutrients from dust and found that certain leaf traits enhance this uptake. This discovery may become increasingly important as CO2 levels rise.
James A. King, James Weber, Peter Lawrence, Stephanie Roe, Abigail L. S. Swann, and Maria Val Martin
Biogeosciences, 21, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tackling climate change by adding, restoring, or enhancing forests is gaining global support. However, it is important to investigate the broader implications of this. We used a computer model of the Earth to investigate a future where tree cover expanded as much as possible. We found that some tropical areas were cooler because of trees pumping water into the atmosphere, but this also led to soil and rivers drying. This is important because it might be harder to maintain forests as a result.
Nicolas Picard, Noël Fonton, Faustin Boyemba Bosela, Adeline Fayolle, Joël Loumeto, Gabriel Ngua Ayecaba, Bonaventure Sonké, Olga Diane Yongo Bombo, Hervé Martial Maïdou, and Alfred Ngomanda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2302, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Allometric equations predict tree biomass and are crucial for estimating forest carbon storage, thus assessing forests' role in climate change mitigation. Usually, these equations are selected based on tree-level predictive performance. However, we evaluated the model performance at plot and forest levels, finding it varies with plot size. This has significant implications for reducing uncertainty in biomass estimates at these levels.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Biogeosciences, 21, 3373–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How do perpetually slower and warmer oceans sequester carbon? Compared to the preindustrial state, we find that biological productivity declines despite warming-stimulated growth because of a lower nutrient supply from depth. This throttles the biological carbon pump, which still sequesters more carbon because it takes longer to return to the surface. The deep ocean is isolated from the surface, allowing more carbon from the atmosphere to pass through the ocean without contributing to biology.
Rebecca Chloe Evans and H. Damon Matthews
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1810, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To mitigate our impact on the climate, research suggests that we will need to both drastically reduce emissions and perform carbon dioxide removal (CDR). We simulated future climates under three emissions scenarios, in which we removed some carbon from the air and put it into agricultural soil at varying rates. We found that agricultural CDR is much more effective at reducing global temperatures if done in a low emissions scenario and at a high rate, and it becomes less effective with time.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation regions based on future high-resolution climate data and climate–vegetation models. After considering the national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation region was mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study provides a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
Biogeosciences, 21, 2509–2527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices for the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 21, 2355–2365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesize that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We find that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was also maintained under elevated levels of CO2.
Lucia S. Layritz, Konstantin Gregor, Andreas Krause, Stefan Kruse, Ben F. Meyer, Tom A. M. Pugh, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbances (e.g. fire) can change which species grow in a forest, affecting water, carbon, energy flows, and the climate. They are expected to increase with climate change, but it is uncertain by how much. We studied how future climate and disturbances might impact vegetation with a simulation model. Our findings highlight the importance of considering both factors, with future disturbance patterns posing significant uncertainty. More research is needed to understand their future development.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Lukas Hörtnagl, Luana Krebs, Nicola Arriga, Mirco Migliavacca, Marilyn Roland, Bert Gielen, Leonardo Montagnani, Enrico Tomelleri, Ladislav Šigut, Matthias Peichl, Peng Zhao, Marius Schmidt, Thomas Grünwald, Mika Korkiakoski, Annalea Lohila, and Nina Buchmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2964, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Effect of winter warming on forest CO2 fluxes has rarely been investigated. We tested the effect of the warm winter in 2020 on the forest CO2 fluxes across 14 sites in Europe and found that in colder sites net ecosystem productivity (NEP) declined during the warm winter, while in the warmer sites NEP increased. Warming leads to increased respiration fluxes but if not translated into a direct warming of the soil might not enhance productivity, if the soil within the rooting zone remains frozen.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Cited articles
Allen, M. R. and Stocker, T. F.: Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide
emissions, Nature Climate Change, 4, 23–26, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2077,
2014.
Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A.,
Meinshausen, M., and Meinshausen, N.: Warming caused by cumulative carbon
emissions towards the trillionth tonne, Nature, 458, 1163–1166,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08019, 2009.
Antonov, J. I., Seidov, D., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V.,
Garcia, H. E., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., and R., J. D.: World Ocean
Atlas 2009, Volume 2: Salinity, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 69, US Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 184 pp., 2010.
Archer, D., Kheshgi, H., and Maier-Reimer, E.: Dynamics of fossil fuel CO2
neutralization by marine CaCO3, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 12, 259–276,
https://doi.org/10.1029/98GB00744, 1998.
Bartelink, H. H.: A model of dry matter partitioning in trees, Tree Physiol.,
18, 91–101, 1998.
Batjes, N. H.: Total carbon and nitrogen in the soils of the world, Eur. J.
Soil Sci., 47, 151–163, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2389.1996.tb01386.x, 1996.
Bhat, K. S., Haran, M., Olson, R., and Keller, K.: Inferring likelihoods and
climate system characteristics from climate models and multiple tracers,
Environmetrics, 23, 345–362, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2149, 2012.
Bodman, R. W., Rayner, P. J., and Karoly, D. J.: Uncertainty in temperature
projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations, Nature
Climate Change, 3, 725–729, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1903, 2013.
Bozbiyik, A., Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Stocker, T. F., and Menviel, L.:
Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large
reorganizations in ocean circulation, Clim. Past, 7, 319–338,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-319-2011, 2011.
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., and Jones, P. D.:
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A
new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D12106,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548, 2006.
Calvin, K., Clarke, L., Krey, V., Blanford, G., Jiang, K., Kainuma, M.,
Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., and Shukla, P. R.: The role of Asia in mitigating
climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise, Energ. Econ., 34,
Supplement 3, S251–S260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.09.003, 2012.
Canadell, J. G., Le Quere, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T.,
Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., and Marland, G.:
Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic
activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 104, 18866–18870, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702737104, 2007.
Charman, D. J., Beilman, D. W., Blaauw, M., Booth, R. K., Brewer, S.,
Chambers, F. M., Christen, J. A., Gallego-Sala, A., Harrison, S. P., Hughes,
P. D. M., Jackson, S. T., Korhola, A., Mauquoy, D., Mitchell, F. J. G.,
Prentice, I. C., van der Linden, M., De Vleeschouwer, F., Yu, Z. C., Alm, J.,
Bauer, I. E., Corish, Y. M. C., Garneau, M., Hohl, V., Huang, Y., Karofeld,
E., Le Roux, G., Loisel, J., Moschen, R., Nichols, J. E., Nieminen, T. M.,
MacDonald, G. M., Phadtare, N. R., Rausch, N., Sillasoo, Ü., Swindles, G.
T., Tuittila, E.-S., Ukonmaanaho, L., Väliranta, M., van Bellen, S., van
Geel, B., Vitt, D. H., and Zhao, Y.: Climate-related changes in peatland
carbon accumulation during the last millennium, Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013.
Collaty, G. J., Berry, J. A., Farquhar, G. D., and Pierce, J.: The relationship
between the rubisco reaction-mechanism and models of photosynthesis, Phys.
Chem. Earth, 13, 219–225, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.1990.tb01306.x, 1990.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X. Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe,
M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A., and Wehner, M.: Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 12:
Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.,
1029–1136, 2013.
Conway, T. and Tans, P.: Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Data set,
NOAA/ESRL, available at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ (last access: 31 January 2012),
2011.
Deutsch, C., Ferrel, A., Seibel, B., Poertner, H.-O., and Huey, R. B.: Climate
change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats, Science, 348,
1132–1135, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa1605, 2015.
Dickson, A.: Handbook of methods of the analysis of the various parameters of
the carbon dioxide system in seawater, US Dep. of Energy, Washington, D.C.,
available at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/DOE_94.pdf (last access: 25 May 2015), 187 pp., 2002.
Edwards, N. and Marsh, R.: Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity
in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model, Clim. Dynam., 24, 415–433,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0508-8, 2005.
Etheridge, D. M., Steele, L. P., Langenfelds, R. L., Francey, R. J., Barnola,
J. M., and Morgan, V. I.: Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric
CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 4115–4128, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD03410, 1996.
Farquhar, G. D., Caemmerer, S. V., and Berry, J. A.: A biochemical-model of
photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C-3 species, Planta, 149,
78–90, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00386231, 1980.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W.,
Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P.,
Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., C., R., and Rummukainen, M.: Climate
Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
chap. 9: Evaluation of Climate Models, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 741–866, 2013.
Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Betts, R., Fahey, D. W.,
Haywood, J., Lean, J., Lowe, D. C., Myhre, G., Nganga, J., Prinn, R., Raga,
G., Schulz, M., and Dorland, R. V.: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 2: Changes in Atmospheric
Constituents and in Radiative Forcing, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 129–234, 2007.
Friedlingstein, P., Solomon, S., Plattner, G.-K., Knutti, R., Ciais, P., and
Raupach, M. R.: Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century
options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation, Nature Climate Change, 1, 457–461,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1302, 2011.
Frölicher, T. L. and Paynter, D. J.: Extending the relationship between
global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial
timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075002, 2015.
Frölicher, T. L., Winton, M., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Continued global warming
after CO2 emissions stoppage, Nature Climate Change, 4, 40–44,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2060, 2014.
Gangstø, R., Gehlen, M., Schneider, B., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., and Joos,
F.: Modeling the marine aragonite cycle: changes under rising carbon dioxide
and its role in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution, Biogeosciences, 5,
1057–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-1057-2008, 2008.
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Zweng, M. M.,
Baranova, O. K., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 4: Nutrients
(phosphate, nitrate, silicate), NOAA Atlas NESDIS 71, US Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 398 pp., 2010.
Gattuso, J.-P., Magnan, A., Bille, R., Cheung, W. W. L., Howes, E. L., Joos,
F., Allemand, D., Bopp, L., Cooley, S. R., Eakin, C. M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O.,
Kelly, R. P., Poertner, H.-O., Rogers, A. D., Baxter, J. M., Laffoley, D.,
Osborn, D., Rankovic, A., Rochette, J., Sumaila, U. R., Treyer, S., and
Turley, C.: Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different
anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios, Science, 349, aac4722,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4722, 2015.
Gerber, M. and Joos, F.: Carbon sources and sinks from an Ensemble Kalman
Filter ocean data assimilation, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB3004,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003531, 2010.
Gerber, M. and Joos, F.: An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation:
Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon
cycle projections, Ocean Model., 64, 29–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.12.012, 2013.
Gerber, M., Joos, F., Vazquez-Rodriguez, M., Touratier, F., and Goyet, C.:
Regional air-sea fluxes of anthropogenic carbon inferred with an Ensemble
Kalman Filter, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB1013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003247, 2009.
Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Matthews, D., and Allen, M. R.: Constraining the
Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5
Simulations, J. Climate, 26, 6844–6858, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00476.1,
2013.
Global Soil Data Task Group: Global Gridded Surfaces of Selected Soil
Characteristics (IGBP-DIS), Data set, Oak Ridge
National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee,
USA, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/569, 2000.
GLOBALVIEW-CO2: Cooperative Atmospheric Data Integration Project –
Carbon Dioxide, CD-ROM, NOAA ESRL, Boulder, Colorado, available at:
http://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov (last access: 23 March 2011), path: ccg/co2/GLOBALVIEW, 2011.
Gobron, N., Pinty, B., Aussedat, O., Chen, J. M., Cohen, W. B., Fensholt, R.,
Gond, V., Huemmrich, K. F., Lavergne, T., Melin, F., Privette, J. L.,
Sandholt, I., Taberner, M., Turner, D. P., Verstraete, M. M., and Widlowski,
J.-L.: Evaluation of fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation
products for different canopy radiation transfer regimes: Methodology and
results using Joint Research Center products derived from SeaWiFS against
ground-based estimations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D13110,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006511, 2006.
Gregory, J. M., Jones, C. D., Cadule, P., and Friedlingstein, P.: Quantifying
Carbon Cycle Feedbacks, J. Climate, 22, 5232–5250,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2949.1, 2009.
Gruber, N., Hauri, C., Lachkar, Z., Loher, D., Froelicher, T. L., and Plattner,
G.-K.: Rapid Progression of Ocean Acidification in the California Current
System, Science, 337, 220–223, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1216773, 2012.
Grübler, A., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Wagner, F., Fischer, G., Keppo, I.,
Obersteiner, M., O'Neill, B., Rao, S., and Tubiello, F.: Integrated
assessment of uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and their mitigation:
Introduction and overview, Technol. Forecast. Soc., 74, 873–886,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.07.009, 2007.
Hallgren, W. S. and Pitman, A. J.: The uncertainty in simulations by a Global
Biome Model (BIOMES) to alternative parameter values, Glob. Change Biol.,
6, 483–495, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.00325.x, 2000.
Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. M. H., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., and Murphy,
J. M.: Probabilistic projections of transient climate change, Clim. Dynam.,
40, 2937–2972, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1647-y, 2013.
Hartmann, D. L., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L. V.,
Brönnimann, S., Charabi, Y. A., Dentener, F., Dlugokencky, E., Easterling,
D. R., Kaplan, A., Soden, J., Thorne, P. W., Wild, M., and Zhai, P.: Climate
Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
chap. 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 159–254, 2013.
Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional
climate predictions, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1095–1107,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1, 2009.
Haxeltine, A. and Prentice, I. C.: A general model for the light-use efficiency
of primary production, Funct. Ecol., 10, 551–561, https://doi.org/10.2307/2390165,
1996.
Heinze, C.: Simulating oceanic CaCO3 export production in the greenhouse,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L16308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020613, 2004.
Herrington, T. and Zickfeld, K.: Path independence of climate and carbon
cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions, Earth Syst.
Dynam., 5, 409–422, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-409-2014, 2014.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Oliver, K. I. C., Lenton, T. M., and Wilkinson,
R. D.: A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial
carbon change in GENIE-1, Clim. Dynam., 35, 785–806,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Gerten, D., and Schaphoff, S.: A model-based
constraint on CO2 fertilisation, Biogeosciences, 10, 339–355,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-339-2013, 2013.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Garthwaite, P. H., and Wilkinson, R. D.:
Emulation and interpretation of high-dimensional climate model outputs, J.
Appl. Stat., 42, 2038–2055, https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2015.1016412, 2015.
Howes, E. L., Joos, F., Eakin, M., and Gattuso, J.-P.: An updated synthesis of
the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical,
physical and biological processes in the oceans, Front. Mar. Sci., 2, 36,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2015.00036,
2015.
Huang, B. Y., Stone, P. H., Sokolov, A. P., and Kamenkovich, I. V.: Ocean heat
uptake in transient climate change: Mechanisms and uncertainty due to
subgrid-scale eddy mixing, J. Climate, 16, 3344–3356,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3344:OHUITC>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Huber, M. and Knutti, R.: Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate
response in the recent hiatus reconciled, Nat. Geosci., 7, 651–656,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2228, 2014.
IPCC: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Technical Summary, 11–34,
Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA, 1995.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical
Science
Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3–32, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pp., 2014.
Jenkinson, D. S.: The turnover of organic-carbon and nitrogen in soil, Philos.
T. Roy. Soc. B, 329, 361–368, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1990.0177, 1990.
Joos, F., Bruno, M., Fink, R., Siegenthaler, U., Stocker, T. F., and
Le Quéré, C.: An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic
and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake, Tellus B, 48, 397–417,
https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.1996.t01-2-00006.x, 1996.
Joos, F., Plattner, G.-K., Stocker, T. F., Marchal, O., and Schmittner, A.:
Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks and future atmospheric
CO2, Science, 284, 464–467, 1999.
Joos, F., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S., Meyer, R., Hooss, G., Plattner, G.-K.,
Gerber, S., and Hasselmann, K.: Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial
carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) emission scenarios, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 891–907,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GB001375, 2001.
Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Steinacher, M., and Plattner, G.-K.: Ocean
Acidification, chap. 14: Impact of climate change mitigation on ocean
acidification projections, Oxford University Press, New York,
USA, 319–338, 2011.
Joos, F., Roth, R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Peters, G. P., Enting, I. G., von
Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Burke, E. J., Eby, M., Edwards, N. R., Friedrich, T.,
Frölicher, T. L., Halloran, P. R., Holden, P. B., Jones, C., Kleinen, T.,
Mackenzie, F. T., Matsumoto, K., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Reisinger,
A., Segschneider, J., Shaffer, G., Steinacher, M., Strassmann, K., Tanaka,
K., Timmermann, A., and Weaver, A. J.: Carbon dioxide and climate impulse
response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a
multi-model analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013.
Karl, T. R., Arguez, A., Huang, B., Lawrimore, J. H., McMahon, J. R., Menne,
M. J., Peterson, T. C., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.-M.: Possible artifacts of
data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus, Science, 348,
1469–1472, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5632, 2015.
Keeling, C. D. and Whorf, T. P.: Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the
SIO air sampling network, Trends Online: A compendium of Data on Global
Change, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA, 2005.
Keith, H., Mackey, B. G., and Lindenmayer, D. B.: Re-evaluation of forest
biomass carbon stocks and lessons from the world's most carbon-dense forests,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 11635–11640,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901970106, 2009.
Kergoat, L.: A model for hydrological equilibrium of leaf area index on a
global scale, J. Hydrol., 212, 268–286, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00211-X,
1998.
Key, R. M., Kozyr, A., Sabine, C. L., Lee, K., Wanninkhof, R., Bullister, J.,
Feely, R. A., Millero, F., Mordy, C., and Peng, T.-H.: A global ocean carbon
climatology: Results from Global Data Analysis Project (GLODAP),
Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002247, 2004.
Knutti, R. and Hegerl, G. C.: The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's
temperature to radiation changes, Nat. Geosci., 1, 735–743,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo337, 2008.
Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., and Plattner, G. K.: Constraints on
radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate
model ensembles, Nature, 416, 719–723, https://doi.org/10.1038/416719a, 2002.
Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., and Plattner, G. K.: Probabilistic
climate change projections using neural networks, Clim. Dynam., 21, 257–272,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0345-1, 2003.
Knutti, R., Joos, F., Muller, S. A., Plattner, G. K., and Stocker, T. F.:
Probabilistic climate change projections for CO2 stabilization profiles,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023294, 2005.
Krasting, J. P., Dunne, J. P., Shevliakova, E., and Stouffer, R. J.: Trajectory
sensitivity of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2520–2527, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059141, 2014.
Kummer, J. R. and Dessler, A. E.: The impact of forcing efficacy on the
equilibrium climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3565–3568,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060046, 2014.
Kwon, E. Y., Primeau, F., and Sarmiento, J. L.: The impact of remineralization
depth on the air-sea carbon balance, Nat. Geosci., 2, 630–635,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO612, 2009.
Leverenz, J. W.: The effects of illumination sequence, CO2 concentration,
temperature and acclimation on the convexity of the photosynthetic light
response curve, Physiol. Plantarum, 74, 332–341,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1399-3054.1988.tb00639.x, 1988.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Baranova, O. K., Garcia, H. E.,
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Yarosh, E. S.,
and Zweng, M. M.: World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change
(0–2000 m), 1955–2010, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051106,
2012.
Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M., and Urban, N. M.: Upper bounds on
twenty-first-century Antarctic ice loss assessed using a probabilistic
framework, Nature Climate Change, 3, 654–659, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1845, 2013.
Lloyd, J. and Taylor, J. A.: On the temperature-dependence of soil respiration,
Funct. Ecol., 8, 315–323, https://doi.org/10.2307/2389824, 1994.
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Garcia, H. E.,
Baranova, O. K. Zweng, M. M., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2009,
Volume 1: Temperature, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 68, US Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C., 184 pp., 2010.
Luyssaert, S., Inglima, I., Jung, M., Richardson, A. D., Reichstein, M.,
Papale, D., Piao, S. L., Schulzes, E.-D., Wingate, L., Matteucci, G., Aragao,
L., Aubinet, M., Beers, C., Bernhoffer, C., Black, K. G., Bonal, D.,
Bonnefond, J.-M., Chambers, J., Ciais, P., Cook, B., Davis, K. J., Dolman,
A. J., Gielen, B., Goulden, M., Grace, J., Granier, A., Grelle, A., Griffis,
T., Gruenwald, T., Guidolotti, G., Hanson, P. J., Harding, R., Hollinger,
D. Y., Hutyra, L. R., Kolar, P., Kruijt, B., Kutsch, W., Lagergren, F.,
Laurila, T., Law, B. E., Le Maire, G., Lindroth, A., Loustau, D., Malhi, Y.,
Mateus, J., Migliavacca, M., Misson, L., Montagnani, L., Moncrieff, J.,
Moors, E., Munger, J. W., Nikinmaa, E., Ollinger, S. V., Pita, G., Rebmann,
C., Roupsard, O., Saigusa, N., Sanz, M. J., Seufert, G., Sierra, C., Smith,
M.-L., Tang, J., Valentini, R., Vesala, T., and Janssens, I. A.: CO2
balance of boreal, temperate, and tropical forests derived from a global
database, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 2509–2537,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01439.x, 2007.
Lyman, J. M., Good, S. A., Gouretski, V. V., Ishii, M., Johnson, G. C., Palmer,
M. D., Smith, D. M., and Willis, J. K.: Robust warming of the global upper
ocean, Nature, 465, 334–337, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09043, 2010.
Magnani, F., Leonardi, S., Tognetti, R., Grace, J., and Borghetti, M.:
Modelling the surface conductance of a broad-leaf canopy: effects of partial
decoupling from the atmosphere, Phys. Chem. Earth, 21, 867–879,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3040.1998.00328.x, 1998.
Maier-Reimer, E. and Hasselmann, K.: Transport and storage of CO2 in the
ocean – an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model, Clim. Dynam., 2,
63–90, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01054491, 1987.
Marotzke, J. and Forster, P. M.: Forcing, feedback and internal variability in
global temperature trends, Nature, 517, 565–570, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14117,
2015.
Matthews, H. D., Gillett, N. P., Stott, P. A., and Zickfeld, K.: The
proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions, Nature,
459, 829–832, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08047, 2009.
McKay, M. D., Beckman, R. J., and Conover, W. J.: A comparison of three methods
for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a
computer code, Technometrics, 21, 239–245, https://doi.org/10.2307/1268522, 1979.
McNeil, B. I. and Matear, R. J.: Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic
acidification, Tellus B, 59, 191–198, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00241.x, 2007.
Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S. C. B., Frieler, K.,
Knutti, R., Frame, D. J., and Allen, M. R.: Greenhouse-gas emission targets
for limiting global warming to 2 °C, Nature, 458,
1158–1162, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08017, 2009.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K. V., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M.,
Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K.,
Thomson, A. M., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D.: The RCP Greenhouse
Gas Concentrations and their Extension from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109,
213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van
Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A.,
Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer,
R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next
generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature,
463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010.
Müller, S. A., Joos, F., Edwards, N. R., and Stocker, T. F.: Water mass
distribution and ventilation time scales in a cost-efficient,
three-dimensional ocean model, J. Climate, 19, 5479–5499,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3911.1, 2006.
Müller, S. A., Joos, F., Plattner, G.-K., Edwards, N. R., and Stocker, T. F.:
Modeled natural and excess radiocarbon: Sensitivities to the gas exchange
formulation and ocean transport strength, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB3011,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003065, 2008.
Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., and
Stainforth, D. A.: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large
ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, 430, 768–772,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02771, 2004.
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang,
J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock,
A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 8:
Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 659–740, 2013.
Nieves, V., Willis, J. K., and Patzert, W. C.: Recent hiatus caused by decadal
shift in Indo-Pacific heating, Science, 349, 532–535,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4521, 2015.
Olson, R., Sriver, R., Goes, M., Urban, N. M., Matthews, H. D., Haran, M., and
Keller, K.: A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of
instrumental observations and an Earth System model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
117, D04103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016620, 2012.
Olson, R. J., Scurlock, J. M. O., Prince, S. D., Zheng, D. L., and
Johnson, K. R.:
NPP Multi-Biome: NPP and Driver Data for Ecosystem Model-Data
Intercomparison., Data set, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active
Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA,
available at: http://www.daac.ornl.gov (last access: 29 July 2010), 2001.
Orr, J. C.: Ocean Acidification, chap. 3: Recent and future changes in ocean
carbonate chemistry, Oxford University Press, New York, USA, 41–66,
2011.
Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A.,
Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Key, R. M., Lindsay, K.,
Maier-Reimer, E., Matear, R., Monfray, P., Mouchet, A., Najjar, R. G.,
Plattner, G.-K., Rodgers, K. B., Sabine, C. L., Sarmiento, J. L., Schlitzer,
R., Slater, R. D., Totterdell, I. J., Weirig, M. F., Yamanaka, Y., and Yool,
A.: Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its
impact on calcifying organisms, Nature, 437, 681–686, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04095, 2005.
Otto, A., Otto, F. E. L., Boucher, O., Church, J., Hegerl, G., Forster, P. M.,
Gillett, N. P., Gregory, J., Johnson, G. C., Knutti, R., Lewis, N., Lohmann,
U., Marotzke, J., Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Stevens, B., and Allen, M. R.:
Energy budget constraints on climate response, Nat. Geosci., 6, 415–416,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836, 2013.
Parekh, P., Joos, F., and Müller, S. A.: A modeling assessment of the
interplay between aeolian iron fluxes and iron-binding ligands in controlling
carbon dioxide fluctuations during Antarctic warm events, Paleoceanography,
23, PA4202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007PA001531, 2008.
Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Le Quere,
C., Marland, G., Raupach, M. R., and Wilson, C.: COMMENTARY: The challenge to
keep global warming below 2 degrees C, Nature Climate Change, 3, 4–6,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783, 2013.
Pfister, P. L. and Stocker, T. F.: Earth system commitments due to delayed
mitigation, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 014010,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014010, 2016.
Plattner, G.-K., Joos, F., Stocker, T. F., and Marchal, O.: Feedback mechanisms
and sensitivities of ocean carbon uptake under global warming, Tellus B, 53,
564–592, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.2001.530504.x, 2001.
Pörtner, H.-O., Gutowska, M., Ishimatsu, A., Lucassen, M., Meizner, F., and
Seibel, B. A.: Ocean Acidification, chap. 8: Effects of ocean acidification
on nektonic organisms, Oxford University Press, New York, USA, 154–175,
2011.
Prentice, I. C., Farquhar, G. D., Fasham, M. J. R., Goulden, M. L., Heimann,
M., Jaramillo, V. J., Kheshgi, H. S., Le Quéré, C., Scholes, R. J., and
Wallace, D. W. R.: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of
Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, chap.: The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA, 183–237, 2001.
Raich, J. W. and Schlesinger, W. H.: The global carnon-dioxide flux in soil
respiration and its relationship to vegetation and climate, Tellus B, 44,
81–99, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.1992.t01-1-00001.x, 1992.
Ritz, S. P., Stocker, T. F., and Joos, F.: A Coupled Dynamical Ocean-Energy
Balance Atmosphere Model for Paleoclimate Studies, J. Climate, 24, 349–375,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3351.1, 2011a.
Ritz, S. P., Stocker, T. F., and Severinghaus, J. P.: Noble gases as proxies of
mean ocean temperature: sensitivity studies using a climate model of reduced
complexity, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 3728–3741,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.09.021, 2011b.
Roberts, C. D., Palmer, M. D., McNeall, D., and Collins, M.: Quantifying the
likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming, Nature Climate Change, 5,
337–342, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2531, 2015.
Roemmich, D., Church, J., Gilson, J., Monselesan, D., Sutton, P., and Wijffels,
S.: Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006, Nature
Climate Change, 5, 240–245, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2513, 2015.
Rogelj, J., Hare, W., Lowe, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Matthews, B.,
Hanaoka, T., Jiang, K., and Meinshausen, M.: Emission pathways consistent
with a 2 degrees C global temperature limit, Nature Climate Change, 1, 413–418,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1258, 2011.
Schleussner, C.-F., Levermann, A., and Meinshausen, M.: Probabilistic
projections of the Atlantic overturning, Climatic Change, 127, 579–586,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2, 2014.
Schmittner, A., Urban, N. M., Keller, K., and Matthews, D.: Using tracer
observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean diapycnal mixing and
climate-carbon cycle projections, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB4009,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003421, 2009.
Schwartz, S. E.: Determination of Earth's Transient and Equilibrium Climate
Sensitivities from Observations Over the Twentieth Century: Strong Dependence
on Assumed Forcing, Surv. Geophys., 33, 745–777,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9180-4, 2012.
Sherwood, S. C. and Huber, M.: An adaptability limit to climate change due to
heat stress, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 9552–9555,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0913352107, 2010.
Shindell, D.: Reply to “Questions of bias in climate models”, Nature
Climate Change, 4, 742–743, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2346, 2014a.
Shindell, D. T.: Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity,
Nature Climate Change, 4, 274–277, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2136,
2014b.
Shine, K. P., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Hailemariam, K., and Stuber, N.: Alternatives
to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of
greenhouse gases, Climatic Change, 68, 281–302,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-1146-9, 2005.
Siegenthaler, U. and Oeschger, H.: Predicting future atmospheric carbon-dioxide
levels, Science, 199, 388–395, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.199.4327.388, 1978.
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W.,
Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and
Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and
terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model,
Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003.
Spahni, R., Joos, F., Stocker, B. D., Steinacher, M., and Yu, Z. C.:
Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern
peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century, Clim. Past, 9,
1287–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, 2013.
Stainforth, D. A.: Climate projection: Testing climate assumptions, Nature
Climate
Change, 4, 248–249, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2172, 2014.
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Plattner, G.-K., and Doney,
S. C.: Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR
global coupled carbon cycle-climate model, Biogeosciences, 6, 515–533,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-515-2009, 2009.
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., and Stocker, T. F.: Allowable carbon emissions
lowered by multiple climate targets, Nature, 499, 197–201,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12269, 2013.
Stocker, B. D., Feissli, F., Strassmann, K. M., Spahni, R., and Joos, F.: Past
and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood
harvest, Tellus B, 66, 23188, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23188, 2014.
Stocker, T. F.: The Closing Door of Climate Targets, Science, 339, 280–282,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1232468, 2013.
Strassmann, K. M., Joos, F., and Fischer, G.: Simulating effects of land use
changes on carbon fluxes: past contributions to atmospheric CO2
increases and future commitments due to losses of terrestrial sink capacity,
Tellus B, 60, 583–603, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2008.00340.x, 2008.
Strassmann, K. M., Plattner, G.-K., and Joos, F.: CO2 and non-CO2
radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation
scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 33, 737–749, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0505-4, 2009.
Tarnocai, C., Swanson, D., Kimble, J., and Broll, G.: Northern Circumpolar Soil
Carbon Database, Digital database, Research Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food
Canada, Ottawa, Canada, available at:
http://wms1.agr.gc.ca/NortherCircumpolar/northercircumpolar.zip (last access: 31 May 2010),
2007.
Tarnocai, C., Canadell, J. G., Schuur, E. A. G., Kuhry, P., Mazhitova, G., and
Zimov, S.: Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost
region, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003327, 2009.
Trumbore, S. E.: Age of soil organic matter and soil respiration: radiocarbon
constraints on belowground C dynamics, Ecol. Appl., 10, 399–411,
https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[0399:AOSOMA]2.0.CO;2, 2000.
United Nations: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
Document FCCC/INFORMAL/84 GE.05-62220 (E) 200705, United Nations,
available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf (last access: 29 September 2013), 1992.
United Nations: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its sixteenth
session, held in Cancun from 29 November to 10 December 2010, document
FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1, United Nations, available at:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf (last access: 29 September 2013),
2010.
United Nations: Conference of the Parties. ADOPTION OF THE PARIS
AGREEMENT, Proposal by the President, document FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1,
United Nations, available at:
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf (last access: 14 January 2016),
2015.
van der Werf, G. R. and Dolman, A. J.: Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) on deriving anthropogenic warming rates from the
instrumental temperature record, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 375–382,
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-375-2014, 2014.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Joos, F., Strassmann,
K. M., Smith, S. J., Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., de la
Chesnaye, F., den Elzen, M., Fujino, J., Jiang, K., Nakicenovic, N., Paltsev,
S., and Reilly, J. M.: Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation
scenarios, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 15258–15262,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0711129105, 2008.
von Schuckmann, K. and Le Traon, P.-Y.: How well can we derive Global Ocean
Indicators from Argo data?, Ocean Sci., 7, 783–791,
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-7-783-2011, 2011.
Weyant, J. R., de la Chesnaye, F. C., and Blanford, G. J.: Overview of
EMF-21: Multigas mitigation and climate policy, Energ. J., 27, 1–32,
2006.
Wigley, T. M. L. and Raper, S. C. B.: Interpretation of high projections for
global-mean warming, Science, 293, 451–454, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1061604,
2001.
Williamson, D., Goldstein, M., Allison, L., Blaker, A., Challenor, P., Jackson,
L., and Yamazaki, K.: History matching for exploring and reducing climate
model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics
ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1703–1729, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1896-4,
2013.
Yu, Z., Loisel, J., Brosseau, D. P., Beilman, D. W., and Hunt, S. J.: Global
peatland dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L13402,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043584, 2010.
Zaehle, S., Sitch, S., Smith, B., and Hatterman, F.: Effects of parameter
uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB3020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002395, 2005.
Zickfeld, K. and Herrington, T.: The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission
and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission, Environ. Res.
Lett., 10, 031001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031001, 2015.
Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., Matthews, H. D., and Weaver, A. J.: Setting cumulative
emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 16129–16134, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805800106, 2009.
Zickfeld, K., Arora, V. K., and Gillett, N. P.: Is the climate response to
CO2 emissions path dependent?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05703,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050205, 2012.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint