Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1071-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1071-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Feb 2016
Research article |
| 23 Feb 2016
Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble
M. Steinacher
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
Gianna Battaglia, Marco Steinacher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 13, 2823–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) influences the distribution of CO2 between atmosphere and ocean, and thereby climate. We constrain export of biogenic CaCO3 (globally: 0.72–1.05 Gt C yr−1) and dissolution within the water column (~ 80 %) in a novel Monte Carlo set-up with the Bern3D model based on alkalinity data. Whether CaCO3 dissolves in the upper ocean remains unresolved. We recommend using constant (saturation-independent) dissolution rates in Earth system models.
R. Spahni, F. Joos, B. D. Stocker, M. Steinacher, and Z. C. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 1287–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Y. Yara, M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber, and Y. Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 9, 4955–4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012, 2012
Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Sebastian Lienert, Guillaume Jouvet, Patricio Velasquez Alvarez, Basil Davis, Patrick Ludwig, Fortunat Joos, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 20, 449–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-449-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a series of experiments conducted for the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka) over Europe using the regional climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolutions. The model, with new developments better suited to paleo-studies, agrees well with pollen-based climate reconstructions. This agreement is improved when considering different sources of uncertainty. The effect of convection-permitting resolutions is also assessed.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernadello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach with Earth System Models to provide simulations in which all ESMs converge at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the CMIP scenarios. This new type of target-based emission-driven simulations offers a more coherent assessment across ESMs for studying both the carbon cycle and impacts under climate stabilization.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Luke Skinner, Francois Primeau, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Peter Köhler, and Edouard Bard
Clim. Past, 19, 2177–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Radiocarbon is best known as a dating tool, but it also allows us to track CO2 exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. Using decades of data and novel mapping methods, we have charted the ocean’s average radiocarbon ″age” since the last Ice Age. Combined with climate model simulations, these data quantify the ocean’s role in atmospheric CO2 rise since the last Ice Age while also revealing that Earth likely received far more cosmic radiation during the last Ice Age than hitherto believed.
Markus Adloff, Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Thomas F. Stocker, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-82, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an ocean current that transports heat into the North Atlantic and is important for the regional and global climate. Over the ice age cycles, AMOC changed strength and shape. By simulating the temperature changes of the last eight glacial cycles, we tested the role of heat forcing for AMOC changes. In our model, AMOC shifts between four circulation states, caused by changes in the distribution of heat and salinity in the ocean.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-401, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-401, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 265 times more potent than carbon dioxide, has increased by 25 % since the pre-industrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in both 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate was primarily due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the urgency to reduce anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4431–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Loïc Schmidely, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jochen Schmitt, Juhyeong Han, Lucas Silva, Jinwha Shin, Fortunat Joos, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 17, 1627–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1627-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using ancient gas trapped in polar glaciers, we reconstructed the atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide over the penultimate deglaciation to study their response to major climate changes. We show this deglaciation to be characterized by modes of methane and nitrous oxide variability that are also found during the last deglaciation and glacial cycle.
Jurek Müller and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 18, 3657–3687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present long-term projections of global peatland area and carbon with a continuous transient history since the Last Glacial Maximum. Our novel results show that large parts of today’s northern peatlands are at risk from past and future climate change, with larger emissions clearly connected to larger risks. The study includes comparisons between different emission and land-use scenarios, driver attribution through factorial simulations, and assessments of uncertainty from climate forcing.
Shannon A. Bengtson, Laurie C. Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Lise Missiaen, Carlye D. Peterson, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The last interglacial was a warm period that may provide insights into future climates. Here, we compile and analyse stable carbon isotope data from the ocean during the last interglacial and compare it to the Holocene. The data show that Atlantic Ocean circulation was similar during the last interglacial and the Holocene. We also establish a difference in the mean oceanic carbon isotopic ratio between these periods, which was most likely caused by burial and weathering carbon fluxes.
Jurek Müller and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 5285–5308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an in-depth model analysis of transient peatland area and carbon dynamics over the last 22 000 years. Our novel results show that the consideration of both gross positive and negative area changes are necessary to understand the transient evolution of peatlands and their net effect on atmospheric carbon. The study includes the attributions to drivers through factorial simulations, assessments of uncertainty from climate forcing, and determination of the global net carbon balance.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Ashley Dinauer, Florian Adolphi, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 16, 1159–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1159-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Despite intense focus on the ~ 190 ‰ drop in Δ14C across the deglacial
mystery interval, the specific mechanisms responsible for the apparent Δ14C excess in the glacial atmosphere have received considerably less attention. Sensitivity experiments with the computationally efficient Bern3D Earth system model suggest that our inability to reproduce the elevated Δ14C levels during the last glacial may reflect an underestimation of 14C production and/or a biased-high reconstruction of Δ14C.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Angélique Hameau, Thomas L. Frölicher, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 17, 1877–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1877-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean deoxygenation and warming are observed and projected to intensify under continued greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas temperature is considered the main climate change indicator, we show that in certain regions, thermocline doxygenation may be detectable before warming.
Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 16, 423–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-423-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Perturbations in atmospheric CO2 and in its isotopic composition, e.g., in response to carbon release from the land biosphere or from fossil fuel burning, evolve differently in time. We use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to show that fluxes to and from the solid Earth play an important role in removing these perturbations from the atmosphere over thousands of years.
Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, Michael Bock, Barbara Seth, Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Sebastian Lienert, Gianna Battaglia, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrian Schilt, and Edward J. Brook
Biogeosciences, 16, 3997–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
N2O concentrations were subject to strong variations accompanying glacial–interglacial but also rapid climate changes over the last 21 kyr. The sources of these N2O changes can be identified by measuring the isotopic composition of N2O in ice cores and using the distinct isotopic composition of terrestrial and marine N2O. We show that both marine and terrestrial sources increased from the last glacial to the Holocene but that only terrestrial emissions responded quickly to rapid climate changes.
Olli Peltola, Timo Vesala, Yao Gao, Olle Räty, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Bogdan Chojnicki, Ankur R. Desai, Albertus J. Dolman, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Mathias Göckede, Manuel Helbig, Elyn Humphreys, Robert B. Jackson, Georg Jocher, Fortunat Joos, Janina Klatt, Sara H. Knox, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Sebastian Lienert, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Daniel F. Nadeau, Mats B. Nilsson, Walter C. Oechel, Matthias Peichl, Thomas Pypker, William Quinton, Janne Rinne, Torsten Sachs, Mateusz Samson, Hans Peter Schmid, Oliver Sonnentag, Christian Wille, Donatella Zona, and Tuula Aalto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1263–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Here we develop a monthly gridded dataset of northern (> 45 N) wetland methane (CH4) emissions. The data product is derived using a random forest machine-learning technique and eddy covariance CH4 fluxes from 25 wetland sites. Annual CH4 emissions from these wetlands calculated from the derived data product are comparable to prior studies focusing on these areas. This product is an independent estimate of northern wetland CH4 emissions and hence could be used, e.g. for process model evaluation.
Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Gianna Battaglia, Olivier Cartapanis, Samuel L. Jaccard, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 15, 849–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-849-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-849-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A long-standing question in climate science is concerned with what processes contributed to the increase in atmospheric CO2 after the last ice age. From the range of possible processes we try to constrain the change in carbon storage in the land biosphere. By combining ice core and marine sediment data in a modeling framework we show that the carbon storage in the land biosphere increased largely after the last ice age. This will help to further understand processes at work in the Earth system.
Angélique Hameau, Juliette Mignot, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 16, 1755–1780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1755-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1755-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The observed decrease of oxygen and warming in the ocean may adversely affect marine ecosystems and their services. We analyse results from an Earth system model for the last millennium and the 21st century. We find changes in temperature and oxygen due to fossil fuel burning and other human activities to exceed natural variations in many ocean regions already today. Natural variability is biased low in earlier studies neglecting forcing from past volcanic eruptions and solar change.
Gianna Battaglia and Fortunat Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Human-caused, climate change hazards in the ocean continue to aggravate over a very long time. For business as usual, we project the ocean oxygen content to decrease by 40 % over the next thousand years. This would likely have severe consequences for marine life. Global warming and oxygen loss are linked, and meeting the warming target of the Paris Climate Agreement effectively limits related marine hazards. Developments over many thousands of years should be considered to assess marine risks.
Fortunat Joos and Brigitte Buchmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7841–7842, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7841-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7841-2018, 2018
Kuno M. Strassmann and Fortunat Joos
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1887-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1887-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) is a free open-source re-implementation of a reduced-form carbon cycle–climate model widely used in science and IPCC assessments. BernSCM supports up to decadal time steps with high accuracy and is suitable for studies with high computational load, e.g., integrated assessment models (IAMs). Further applications include climate risk assessment in a business, public, or educational context and the estimation of benefits of emission mitigation options.
Sebastian Lienert and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 15, 2909–2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation, shifting cultivation and wood harvesting cause large carbon emissions, altering climate. We apply a dynamic global vegetation model in a probabilistic framework. Diverse observations are assimilated to establish an optimally performing model and a large ensemble of model versions. Land-use carbon emissions are reported for individual countries, regions and the world. We find that parameter-related uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude as process-related effects.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Kathrin M. Keller, Sebastian Lienert, Anil Bozbiyik, Thomas F. Stocker, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), David C. Frank, Stefan Klesse, Charles D. Koven, Markus Leuenberger, William J. Riley, Matthias Saurer, Rolf Siegwolf, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 14, 2641–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, 2017
Sifan Gu, Zhengyu Liu, Alexandra Jahn, Johannes Rempfer, Jiaxu Zhang, and Fortunat Joos
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-40, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is the documentation of the implementation of neodymium (Nd) isotopes in the ocean model of CESM. Our model can simulate both Nd concentration and Nd isotope ratio in good agreement with observations. Our Nd-enabled ocean model makes it possible for direct model-data comparison in paleoceanographic studies, which can help to resolve some uncertainties and controversies in our understanding of past ocean evolution. Therefore, our model provides a useful tool for paleoclimate studies.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Chantal Camenisch, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, Stefan Brönnimann, Ulf Büntgen, Bruce M. S. Campbell, Laura Fernández-Donado, Dominik Fleitmann, Rüdiger Glaser, Fidel González-Rouco, Martin Grosjean, Richard C. Hoffmann, Heli Huhtamaa, Fortunat Joos, Andrea Kiss, Oldřich Kotyza, Flavio Lehner, Jürg Luterbacher, Nicolas Maughan, Raphael Neukom, Theresa Novy, Kathleen Pribyl, Christoph C. Raible, Dirk Riemann, Maximilian Schuh, Philip Slavin, Johannes P. Werner, and Oliver Wetter
Clim. Past, 12, 2107–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Throughout the last millennium, several cold periods occurred which affected humanity. Here, we investigate an exceptionally cold decade during the 15th century. The cold conditions challenged the food production and led to increasing food prices and a famine in parts of Europe. In contrast to periods such as the “Year Without Summer” after the eruption of Tambora, these extreme climatic conditions seem to have occurred by chance and in relation to the internal variability of the climate system.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Sonja G. Keel, Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Matthias Saurer, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Stefan Klesse
Biogeosciences, 13, 3869–3886, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3869-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3869-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Records of stable oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings are valuable tools for reconstructing past climatic conditions. So far, they have not been used in global dynamic vegetation models. Here we present a model that simulates oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings. Our results compare well with measurements performed in European forests. The model is useful for studying oxygen isotope patterns of tree ring cellulose at large spatial and temporal scales.
Gianna Battaglia, Marco Steinacher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 13, 2823–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) influences the distribution of CO2 between atmosphere and ocean, and thereby climate. We constrain export of biogenic CaCO3 (globally: 0.72–1.05 Gt C yr−1) and dissolution within the water column (~ 80 %) in a novel Monte Carlo set-up with the Bern3D model based on alkalinity data. Whether CaCO3 dissolves in the upper ocean remains unresolved. We recommend using constant (saturation-independent) dissolution rates in Earth system models.
B. D. Stocker and F. Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 731–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-731-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-731-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates for land use change CO2 emissions (eLUC) rely on different approaches, implying conceptual differences of what eLUC represents. We use an Earth System Model and quantify differences between two commonly applied methods to be ~20% for historical eLUC but increasing under a future scenario. We decompose eLUC into component fluxes, quantify them, and discuss best practices for global carbon budget accountings and model-data intercomparisons relying on different methods to estimate eLUC.
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
B. D. Stocker, R. Spahni, and F. Joos
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3089–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3089-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3089-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of inundation is key to understanding the role of wetlands under past and future climate change. Here, we describe and assess the DYPTOP model that predicts the extent of inundation and the global spatial distribution of peatlands. DYPTOP makes use of high-resolution topography information and uses ecosystem water balance and peatland soil C balance criteria to simulate peatland spatial dynamics and carbon accumulation.
M. Gehlen, R. Séférian, D. O. B. Jones, T. Roy, R. Roth, J. Barry, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, C. Heinze, F. Joos, J. C. Orr, L. Resplandy, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates potential impacts of pH reductions on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to latest IPCC scenarios.Multi-model projections of pH changes over the seafloor are analysed with reference to a critical threshold based on palaeo-oceanographic studies, contemporary observations and model results. By 2100 under the most severe IPCC CO2 scenario, pH reductions occur over ~23% of deep-sea canyons and ~8% of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as marine protected areas.
R. Roth, S. P. Ritz, and F. Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 321–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-321-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-321-2014, 2014
K. M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible
Biogeosciences, 11, 3647–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3647-2014, 2014
B. Ringeval, S. Houweling, P. M. van Bodegom, R. Spahni, R. van Beek, F. Joos, and T. Röckmann
Biogeosciences, 11, 1519–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1519-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1519-2014, 2014
R. Schneider, J. Schmitt, P. Köhler, F. Joos, and H. Fischer
Clim. Past, 9, 2507–2523, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2507-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2507-2013, 2013
R. Roth and F. Joos
Clim. Past, 9, 1879–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013, 2013
R. Spahni, F. Joos, B. D. Stocker, M. Steinacher, and Z. C. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 1287–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
S. Zürcher, R. Spahni, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, and H. Fischer
Biogeosciences, 10, 1963–1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1963-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1963-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Y. Yara, M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber, and Y. Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 9, 4955–4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forest and grasslands in European temperate zone
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the increase in ocean acidity extremes in the northeastern Pacific
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
Mapping the Future Afforestation Distribution of China Constrained by National Afforestation Plan and Climate Change
The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Alkalinity biases in CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for simulated CO2 drawdown via artificial alkalinity enhancement
Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations
Acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient and biomass declines in a warming Mediterranean Sea
Ocean alkalinity enhancement – avoiding runaway CaCO3 precipitation during quick and hydrated lime dissolution
Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models
Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data
Contrasting responses of phytoplankton productivity between coastal and offshore surface waters in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to short-term seawater acidification
Modeling interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharges in the Kapuas River delta
The application of dendrometers to alpine dwarf shrubs – a case study to investigate stem growth responses to environmental conditions
Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
Evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of blue intensity on multiple conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand
Anthropogenic CO2-mediated freshwater acidification limits survival, calcification, metabolism, and behaviour in stress-tolerant freshwater crustaceans
Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes
On the influence of erect shrubs on the irradiance profile in snow
Tolerance of tropical marine microphytobenthos exposed to elevated irradiance and temperature
Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe
Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century
Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2
Effects of elevated CO2 and extreme climatic events on forage quality and in vitro rumen fermentation in permanent grassland
Cushion bog plant community responses to passive warming in southern Patagonia
Blue carbon stocks and exchanges along the California coast
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3017, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three individual vegetation types in European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices, in the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI/EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of Wavelet Coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2617, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesized that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We found that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway, and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was maintained also under elevated levels of CO2.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-177, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation area based on future high-resolution climate data and climate-vegetation model. After considering national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation area is mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study can provide a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation, and this method can guide designing future gridded afforestation regions for other countries.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Tianfei Xue, Ivy Frenger, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-171, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton plays a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Charly A. Moras, Lennart T. Bach, Tyler Cyronak, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai G. Schulz
Biogeosciences, 19, 3537–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents the first laboratory results of quick and hydrated lime dissolution in natural seawater. These two minerals are of great interest for ocean alkalinity enhancement, a strategy aiming to decrease atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Following the dissolution of these minerals, we identified several hurdles and presented ways to avoid them or completely negate them. Finally, we proceeded to various simulations in today’s oceans to implement the strategy at its highest potential.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil David Hartstein, Aazani Mujahid, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 3131–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deep coastal inlets are important sites for regulating land-based organic pollution before it enters coastal oceans. This study focused on how large climate forces, rainfall, and river flow impact organic loading and oxygen conditions in a coastal inlet in Tasmania. Increases in rainfall were linked to higher organic loading and lower oxygen in basin waters. Finally we observed a significant correlation between the Southern Annular Mode and oxygen concentrations in the system's basin waters.
Guang Gao, Tifeng Wang, Jiazhen Sun, Xin Zhao, Lifang Wang, Xianghui Guo, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 19, 2795–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
After conducting large-scale deck-incubation experiments, we found that seawater acidification (SA) increased primary production (PP) in coastal waters but reduced it in pelagic zones, which is mainly regulated by local pH, light intensity, salinity, and community structure. In future oceans, SA combined with decreased upward transports of nutrients may synergistically reduce PP in pelagic zones.
Joko Sampurno, Valentin Vallaeys, Randy Ardianto, and Emmanuel Hanert
Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first assessment to evaluate the interactions between river discharges, tides, and storm surges and how they can drive compound flooding in the Kapuas River delta. We successfully created a realistic hydrodynamic model whose domain covers the land–sea continuum using a wetting–drying algorithm in a data-scarce environment. We then proposed a new method to delineate compound flooding hazard zones along the river channels based on the maximum water level profiles.
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Alex R. Quijada-Rodriguez, Pou-Long Kuan, Po-Hsuan Sung, Mao-Ting Hsu, Garett J. P. Allen, Pung Pung Hwang, Yung-Che Tseng, and Dirk Weihrauch
Biogeosciences, 18, 6287–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic CO2 is chronically acidifying aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to determine the impact of future freshwater acidification on the physiology and behaviour of an important aquaculture crustacean, Chinese mitten crabs. We report that elevated freshwater CO2 levels lead to impairment of calcification, locomotor behaviour, and survival and reduced metabolism in this species. Results suggest that present-day calcifying invertebrates could be heavily affected by freshwater acidification.
Junrong Zha and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 18, 6245–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study incorporated moss into an extant biogeochemistry model to simulate the role of moss in carbon dynamics in the Arctic. The interactions between higher plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients are considered in our study. We found that, compared with the previous model without moss, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last century and this century.
Maria Belke-Brea, Florent Domine, Ghislain Picard, Mathieu Barrere, and Laurent Arnaud
Biogeosciences, 18, 5851–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Expanding shrubs in the Arctic change snowpacks into a mix of snow, impurities and buried branches. Snow is a translucent medium into which light penetrates and gets partly absorbed by branches or impurities. Measurements of light attenuation in snow in Northern Quebec, Canada, showed (1) black-carbon-dominated light attenuation in snowpacks without shrubs and (2) buried branches influence radiation attenuation in snow locally, leading to melting and pockets of large crystals close to branches.
Sazlina Salleh and Andrew McMinn
Biogeosciences, 18, 5313–5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The benthic diatom communities in Tanjung Rhu, Malaysia, were regularly exposed to high light and temperature variability during the tidal cycle, resulting in low photosynthetic efficiency. We examined the impact of high temperatures on diatoms' photosynthetic capacities, and temperatures beyond 50 °C caused severe photoinhibition. At the same time, those diatoms exposed to temperatures of 40 °C did not show any sign of photoinhibition.
Cornelius Senf and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 18, 5223–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018. We show that this drought has increased forest disturbances across Europe, especially central and eastern Europe. Disturbance levels observed 2018–2020 were the highest on record for 30 years. Increased forest disturbances were correlated with low moisture and high atmospheric water demand. The unprecedented impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbances demonstrate an urgent need to adapt Europe’s forests to a hotter and drier future.
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Vincent Niderkorn, Annette Morvan-Bertrand, Aline Le Morvan, Angela Augusti, Marie-Laure Decau, and Catherine Picon-Cochard
Biogeosciences, 18, 4841–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change can change vegetation characteristics in grasslands with a potential impact on forage chemical composition and quality, as well as its use by ruminants. Using controlled conditions mimicking a future climatic scenario, we show that forage quality and ruminant digestion are affected in opposite ways by elevated atmospheric CO2 and an extreme event (heat wave, severe drought), indicating that different factors of climate change have to be considered together.
Verónica Pancotto, David Holl, Julio Escobar, María Florencia Castagnani, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 18, 4817–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the response of a wetland plant community to elevated temperature conditions in a cushion bog on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. We measured carbon dioxide fluxes at experimentally warmed plots and at control plots. Warmed plant communities sequestered between 55 % and 85 % less carbon dioxide than untreated control cushions over the main growing season. Our results suggest that even moderate future warming could decrease the carbon sink function of austral cushion bogs.
Melissa A. Ward, Tessa M. Hill, Chelsey Souza, Tessa Filipczyk, Aurora M. Ricart, Sarah Merolla, Lena R. Capece, Brady C O'Donnell, Kristen Elsmore, Walter C. Oechel, and Kathryn M. Beheshti
Biogeosciences, 18, 4717–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Salt marshes and seagrass meadows ("blue carbon" habitats) can sequester and store high levels of organic carbon (OC), helping to mitigate climate change. In California blue carbon sediments, we quantified OC storage and exchange between these habitats. We find that (1) these salt marshes store about twice as much OC as seagrass meadows do and (2), while OC from seagrass meadows is deposited into neighboring salt marshes, little of this material is sequestered as "long-term" carbon.
Cited articles
Allen, M. R. and Stocker, T. F.: Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide
emissions, Nature Climate Change, 4, 23–26, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2077,
2014.
Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A.,
Meinshausen, M., and Meinshausen, N.: Warming caused by cumulative carbon
emissions towards the trillionth tonne, Nature, 458, 1163–1166,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08019, 2009.
Antonov, J. I., Seidov, D., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V.,
Garcia, H. E., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., and R., J. D.: World Ocean
Atlas 2009, Volume 2: Salinity, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 69, US Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 184 pp., 2010.
Archer, D., Kheshgi, H., and Maier-Reimer, E.: Dynamics of fossil fuel CO2
neutralization by marine CaCO3, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 12, 259–276,
https://doi.org/10.1029/98GB00744, 1998.
Bartelink, H. H.: A model of dry matter partitioning in trees, Tree Physiol.,
18, 91–101, 1998.
Batjes, N. H.: Total carbon and nitrogen in the soils of the world, Eur. J.
Soil Sci., 47, 151–163, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2389.1996.tb01386.x, 1996.
Bhat, K. S., Haran, M., Olson, R., and Keller, K.: Inferring likelihoods and
climate system characteristics from climate models and multiple tracers,
Environmetrics, 23, 345–362, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2149, 2012.
Bodman, R. W., Rayner, P. J., and Karoly, D. J.: Uncertainty in temperature
projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations, Nature
Climate Change, 3, 725–729, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1903, 2013.
Bozbiyik, A., Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Stocker, T. F., and Menviel, L.:
Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large
reorganizations in ocean circulation, Clim. Past, 7, 319–338,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-319-2011, 2011.
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., and Jones, P. D.:
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A
new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D12106,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548, 2006.
Calvin, K., Clarke, L., Krey, V., Blanford, G., Jiang, K., Kainuma, M.,
Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., and Shukla, P. R.: The role of Asia in mitigating
climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise, Energ. Econ., 34,
Supplement 3, S251–S260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.09.003, 2012.
Canadell, J. G., Le Quere, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T.,
Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., and Marland, G.:
Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic
activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 104, 18866–18870, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702737104, 2007.
Charman, D. J., Beilman, D. W., Blaauw, M., Booth, R. K., Brewer, S.,
Chambers, F. M., Christen, J. A., Gallego-Sala, A., Harrison, S. P., Hughes,
P. D. M., Jackson, S. T., Korhola, A., Mauquoy, D., Mitchell, F. J. G.,
Prentice, I. C., van der Linden, M., De Vleeschouwer, F., Yu, Z. C., Alm, J.,
Bauer, I. E., Corish, Y. M. C., Garneau, M., Hohl, V., Huang, Y., Karofeld,
E., Le Roux, G., Loisel, J., Moschen, R., Nichols, J. E., Nieminen, T. M.,
MacDonald, G. M., Phadtare, N. R., Rausch, N., Sillasoo, Ü., Swindles, G.
T., Tuittila, E.-S., Ukonmaanaho, L., Väliranta, M., van Bellen, S., van
Geel, B., Vitt, D. H., and Zhao, Y.: Climate-related changes in peatland
carbon accumulation during the last millennium, Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013.
Collaty, G. J., Berry, J. A., Farquhar, G. D., and Pierce, J.: The relationship
between the rubisco reaction-mechanism and models of photosynthesis, Phys.
Chem. Earth, 13, 219–225, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.1990.tb01306.x, 1990.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X. Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe,
M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A., and Wehner, M.: Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 12:
Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.,
1029–1136, 2013.
Conway, T. and Tans, P.: Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Data set,
NOAA/ESRL, available at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ (last access: 31 January 2012),
2011.
Deutsch, C., Ferrel, A., Seibel, B., Poertner, H.-O., and Huey, R. B.: Climate
change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats, Science, 348,
1132–1135, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa1605, 2015.
Dickson, A.: Handbook of methods of the analysis of the various parameters of
the carbon dioxide system in seawater, US Dep. of Energy, Washington, D.C.,
available at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/DOE_94.pdf (last access: 25 May 2015), 187 pp., 2002.
Edwards, N. and Marsh, R.: Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity
in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model, Clim. Dynam., 24, 415–433,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0508-8, 2005.
Etheridge, D. M., Steele, L. P., Langenfelds, R. L., Francey, R. J., Barnola,
J. M., and Morgan, V. I.: Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric
CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 4115–4128, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD03410, 1996.
Farquhar, G. D., Caemmerer, S. V., and Berry, J. A.: A biochemical-model of
photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C-3 species, Planta, 149,
78–90, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00386231, 1980.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W.,
Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P.,
Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., C., R., and Rummukainen, M.: Climate
Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
chap. 9: Evaluation of Climate Models, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 741–866, 2013.
Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Betts, R., Fahey, D. W.,
Haywood, J., Lean, J., Lowe, D. C., Myhre, G., Nganga, J., Prinn, R., Raga,
G., Schulz, M., and Dorland, R. V.: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 2: Changes in Atmospheric
Constituents and in Radiative Forcing, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 129–234, 2007.
Friedlingstein, P., Solomon, S., Plattner, G.-K., Knutti, R., Ciais, P., and
Raupach, M. R.: Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century
options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation, Nature Climate Change, 1, 457–461,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1302, 2011.
Frölicher, T. L. and Paynter, D. J.: Extending the relationship between
global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial
timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075002, 2015.
Frölicher, T. L., Winton, M., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Continued global warming
after CO2 emissions stoppage, Nature Climate Change, 4, 40–44,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2060, 2014.
Gangstø, R., Gehlen, M., Schneider, B., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., and Joos,
F.: Modeling the marine aragonite cycle: changes under rising carbon dioxide
and its role in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution, Biogeosciences, 5,
1057–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-1057-2008, 2008.
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Zweng, M. M.,
Baranova, O. K., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 4: Nutrients
(phosphate, nitrate, silicate), NOAA Atlas NESDIS 71, US Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 398 pp., 2010.
Gattuso, J.-P., Magnan, A., Bille, R., Cheung, W. W. L., Howes, E. L., Joos,
F., Allemand, D., Bopp, L., Cooley, S. R., Eakin, C. M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O.,
Kelly, R. P., Poertner, H.-O., Rogers, A. D., Baxter, J. M., Laffoley, D.,
Osborn, D., Rankovic, A., Rochette, J., Sumaila, U. R., Treyer, S., and
Turley, C.: Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different
anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios, Science, 349, aac4722,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4722, 2015.
Gerber, M. and Joos, F.: Carbon sources and sinks from an Ensemble Kalman
Filter ocean data assimilation, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB3004,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003531, 2010.
Gerber, M. and Joos, F.: An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation:
Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon
cycle projections, Ocean Model., 64, 29–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.12.012, 2013.
Gerber, M., Joos, F., Vazquez-Rodriguez, M., Touratier, F., and Goyet, C.:
Regional air-sea fluxes of anthropogenic carbon inferred with an Ensemble
Kalman Filter, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB1013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003247, 2009.
Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Matthews, D., and Allen, M. R.: Constraining the
Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5
Simulations, J. Climate, 26, 6844–6858, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00476.1,
2013.
Global Soil Data Task Group: Global Gridded Surfaces of Selected Soil
Characteristics (IGBP-DIS), Data set, Oak Ridge
National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee,
USA, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/569, 2000.
GLOBALVIEW-CO2: Cooperative Atmospheric Data Integration Project –
Carbon Dioxide, CD-ROM, NOAA ESRL, Boulder, Colorado, available at:
http://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov (last access: 23 March 2011), path: ccg/co2/GLOBALVIEW, 2011.
Gobron, N., Pinty, B., Aussedat, O., Chen, J. M., Cohen, W. B., Fensholt, R.,
Gond, V., Huemmrich, K. F., Lavergne, T., Melin, F., Privette, J. L.,
Sandholt, I., Taberner, M., Turner, D. P., Verstraete, M. M., and Widlowski,
J.-L.: Evaluation of fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation
products for different canopy radiation transfer regimes: Methodology and
results using Joint Research Center products derived from SeaWiFS against
ground-based estimations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D13110,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006511, 2006.
Gregory, J. M., Jones, C. D., Cadule, P., and Friedlingstein, P.: Quantifying
Carbon Cycle Feedbacks, J. Climate, 22, 5232–5250,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2949.1, 2009.
Gruber, N., Hauri, C., Lachkar, Z., Loher, D., Froelicher, T. L., and Plattner,
G.-K.: Rapid Progression of Ocean Acidification in the California Current
System, Science, 337, 220–223, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1216773, 2012.
Grübler, A., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Wagner, F., Fischer, G., Keppo, I.,
Obersteiner, M., O'Neill, B., Rao, S., and Tubiello, F.: Integrated
assessment of uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and their mitigation:
Introduction and overview, Technol. Forecast. Soc., 74, 873–886,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.07.009, 2007.
Hallgren, W. S. and Pitman, A. J.: The uncertainty in simulations by a Global
Biome Model (BIOMES) to alternative parameter values, Glob. Change Biol.,
6, 483–495, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.00325.x, 2000.
Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. M. H., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., and Murphy,
J. M.: Probabilistic projections of transient climate change, Clim. Dynam.,
40, 2937–2972, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1647-y, 2013.
Hartmann, D. L., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L. V.,
Brönnimann, S., Charabi, Y. A., Dentener, F., Dlugokencky, E., Easterling,
D. R., Kaplan, A., Soden, J., Thorne, P. W., Wild, M., and Zhai, P.: Climate
Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
chap. 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 159–254, 2013.
Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional
climate predictions, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1095–1107,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1, 2009.
Haxeltine, A. and Prentice, I. C.: A general model for the light-use efficiency
of primary production, Funct. Ecol., 10, 551–561, https://doi.org/10.2307/2390165,
1996.
Heinze, C.: Simulating oceanic CaCO3 export production in the greenhouse,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L16308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020613, 2004.
Herrington, T. and Zickfeld, K.: Path independence of climate and carbon
cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions, Earth Syst.
Dynam., 5, 409–422, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-409-2014, 2014.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Oliver, K. I. C., Lenton, T. M., and Wilkinson,
R. D.: A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial
carbon change in GENIE-1, Clim. Dynam., 35, 785–806,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8, 2010.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Gerten, D., and Schaphoff, S.: A model-based
constraint on CO2 fertilisation, Biogeosciences, 10, 339–355,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-339-2013, 2013.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Garthwaite, P. H., and Wilkinson, R. D.:
Emulation and interpretation of high-dimensional climate model outputs, J.
Appl. Stat., 42, 2038–2055, https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2015.1016412, 2015.
Howes, E. L., Joos, F., Eakin, M., and Gattuso, J.-P.: An updated synthesis of
the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical,
physical and biological processes in the oceans, Front. Mar. Sci., 2, 36,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2015.00036,
2015.
Huang, B. Y., Stone, P. H., Sokolov, A. P., and Kamenkovich, I. V.: Ocean heat
uptake in transient climate change: Mechanisms and uncertainty due to
subgrid-scale eddy mixing, J. Climate, 16, 3344–3356,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3344:OHUITC>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Huber, M. and Knutti, R.: Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate
response in the recent hiatus reconciled, Nat. Geosci., 7, 651–656,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2228, 2014.
IPCC: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Technical Summary, 11–34,
Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA, 1995.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical
Science
Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3–32, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pp., 2014.
Jenkinson, D. S.: The turnover of organic-carbon and nitrogen in soil, Philos.
T. Roy. Soc. B, 329, 361–368, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1990.0177, 1990.
Joos, F., Bruno, M., Fink, R., Siegenthaler, U., Stocker, T. F., and
Le Quéré, C.: An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic
and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake, Tellus B, 48, 397–417,
https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.1996.t01-2-00006.x, 1996.
Joos, F., Plattner, G.-K., Stocker, T. F., Marchal, O., and Schmittner, A.:
Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks and future atmospheric
CO2, Science, 284, 464–467, 1999.
Joos, F., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S., Meyer, R., Hooss, G., Plattner, G.-K.,
Gerber, S., and Hasselmann, K.: Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial
carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) emission scenarios, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 891–907,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GB001375, 2001.
Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Steinacher, M., and Plattner, G.-K.: Ocean
Acidification, chap. 14: Impact of climate change mitigation on ocean
acidification projections, Oxford University Press, New York,
USA, 319–338, 2011.
Joos, F., Roth, R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Peters, G. P., Enting, I. G., von
Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Burke, E. J., Eby, M., Edwards, N. R., Friedrich, T.,
Frölicher, T. L., Halloran, P. R., Holden, P. B., Jones, C., Kleinen, T.,
Mackenzie, F. T., Matsumoto, K., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Reisinger,
A., Segschneider, J., Shaffer, G., Steinacher, M., Strassmann, K., Tanaka,
K., Timmermann, A., and Weaver, A. J.: Carbon dioxide and climate impulse
response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a
multi-model analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825,
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013.
Karl, T. R., Arguez, A., Huang, B., Lawrimore, J. H., McMahon, J. R., Menne,
M. J., Peterson, T. C., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.-M.: Possible artifacts of
data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus, Science, 348,
1469–1472, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5632, 2015.
Keeling, C. D. and Whorf, T. P.: Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the
SIO air sampling network, Trends Online: A compendium of Data on Global
Change, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA, 2005.
Keith, H., Mackey, B. G., and Lindenmayer, D. B.: Re-evaluation of forest
biomass carbon stocks and lessons from the world's most carbon-dense forests,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 11635–11640,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901970106, 2009.
Kergoat, L.: A model for hydrological equilibrium of leaf area index on a
global scale, J. Hydrol., 212, 268–286, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00211-X,
1998.
Key, R. M., Kozyr, A., Sabine, C. L., Lee, K., Wanninkhof, R., Bullister, J.,
Feely, R. A., Millero, F., Mordy, C., and Peng, T.-H.: A global ocean carbon
climatology: Results from Global Data Analysis Project (GLODAP),
Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002247, 2004.
Knutti, R. and Hegerl, G. C.: The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's
temperature to radiation changes, Nat. Geosci., 1, 735–743,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo337, 2008.
Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., and Plattner, G. K.: Constraints on
radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate
model ensembles, Nature, 416, 719–723, https://doi.org/10.1038/416719a, 2002.
Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., and Plattner, G. K.: Probabilistic
climate change projections using neural networks, Clim. Dynam., 21, 257–272,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0345-1, 2003.
Knutti, R., Joos, F., Muller, S. A., Plattner, G. K., and Stocker, T. F.:
Probabilistic climate change projections for CO2 stabilization profiles,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023294, 2005.
Krasting, J. P., Dunne, J. P., Shevliakova, E., and Stouffer, R. J.: Trajectory
sensitivity of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2520–2527, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059141, 2014.
Kummer, J. R. and Dessler, A. E.: The impact of forcing efficacy on the
equilibrium climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3565–3568,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060046, 2014.
Kwon, E. Y., Primeau, F., and Sarmiento, J. L.: The impact of remineralization
depth on the air-sea carbon balance, Nat. Geosci., 2, 630–635,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO612, 2009.
Leverenz, J. W.: The effects of illumination sequence, CO2 concentration,
temperature and acclimation on the convexity of the photosynthetic light
response curve, Physiol. Plantarum, 74, 332–341,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1399-3054.1988.tb00639.x, 1988.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Baranova, O. K., Garcia, H. E.,
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Yarosh, E. S.,
and Zweng, M. M.: World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change
(0–2000 m), 1955–2010, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051106,
2012.
Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M., and Urban, N. M.: Upper bounds on
twenty-first-century Antarctic ice loss assessed using a probabilistic
framework, Nature Climate Change, 3, 654–659, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1845, 2013.
Lloyd, J. and Taylor, J. A.: On the temperature-dependence of soil respiration,
Funct. Ecol., 8, 315–323, https://doi.org/10.2307/2389824, 1994.
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Garcia, H. E.,
Baranova, O. K. Zweng, M. M., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2009,
Volume 1: Temperature, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 68, US Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C., 184 pp., 2010.
Luyssaert, S., Inglima, I., Jung, M., Richardson, A. D., Reichstein, M.,
Papale, D., Piao, S. L., Schulzes, E.-D., Wingate, L., Matteucci, G., Aragao,
L., Aubinet, M., Beers, C., Bernhoffer, C., Black, K. G., Bonal, D.,
Bonnefond, J.-M., Chambers, J., Ciais, P., Cook, B., Davis, K. J., Dolman,
A. J., Gielen, B., Goulden, M., Grace, J., Granier, A., Grelle, A., Griffis,
T., Gruenwald, T., Guidolotti, G., Hanson, P. J., Harding, R., Hollinger,
D. Y., Hutyra, L. R., Kolar, P., Kruijt, B., Kutsch, W., Lagergren, F.,
Laurila, T., Law, B. E., Le Maire, G., Lindroth, A., Loustau, D., Malhi, Y.,
Mateus, J., Migliavacca, M., Misson, L., Montagnani, L., Moncrieff, J.,
Moors, E., Munger, J. W., Nikinmaa, E., Ollinger, S. V., Pita, G., Rebmann,
C., Roupsard, O., Saigusa, N., Sanz, M. J., Seufert, G., Sierra, C., Smith,
M.-L., Tang, J., Valentini, R., Vesala, T., and Janssens, I. A.: CO2
balance of boreal, temperate, and tropical forests derived from a global
database, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 2509–2537,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01439.x, 2007.
Lyman, J. M., Good, S. A., Gouretski, V. V., Ishii, M., Johnson, G. C., Palmer,
M. D., Smith, D. M., and Willis, J. K.: Robust warming of the global upper
ocean, Nature, 465, 334–337, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09043, 2010.
Magnani, F., Leonardi, S., Tognetti, R., Grace, J., and Borghetti, M.:
Modelling the surface conductance of a broad-leaf canopy: effects of partial
decoupling from the atmosphere, Phys. Chem. Earth, 21, 867–879,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3040.1998.00328.x, 1998.
Maier-Reimer, E. and Hasselmann, K.: Transport and storage of CO2 in the
ocean – an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model, Clim. Dynam., 2,
63–90, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01054491, 1987.
Marotzke, J. and Forster, P. M.: Forcing, feedback and internal variability in
global temperature trends, Nature, 517, 565–570, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14117,
2015.
Matthews, H. D., Gillett, N. P., Stott, P. A., and Zickfeld, K.: The
proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions, Nature,
459, 829–832, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08047, 2009.
McKay, M. D., Beckman, R. J., and Conover, W. J.: A comparison of three methods
for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a
computer code, Technometrics, 21, 239–245, https://doi.org/10.2307/1268522, 1979.
McNeil, B. I. and Matear, R. J.: Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic
acidification, Tellus B, 59, 191–198, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00241.x, 2007.
Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S. C. B., Frieler, K.,
Knutti, R., Frame, D. J., and Allen, M. R.: Greenhouse-gas emission targets
for limiting global warming to 2 °C, Nature, 458,
1158–1162, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08017, 2009.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K. V., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M.,
Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K.,
Thomson, A. M., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D.: The RCP Greenhouse
Gas Concentrations and their Extension from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109,
213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van
Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A.,
Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer,
R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next
generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature,
463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010.
Müller, S. A., Joos, F., Edwards, N. R., and Stocker, T. F.: Water mass
distribution and ventilation time scales in a cost-efficient,
three-dimensional ocean model, J. Climate, 19, 5479–5499,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3911.1, 2006.
Müller, S. A., Joos, F., Plattner, G.-K., Edwards, N. R., and Stocker, T. F.:
Modeled natural and excess radiocarbon: Sensitivities to the gas exchange
formulation and ocean transport strength, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB3011,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003065, 2008.
Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., and
Stainforth, D. A.: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large
ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, 430, 768–772,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02771, 2004.
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang,
J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock,
A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 8:
Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 659–740, 2013.
Nieves, V., Willis, J. K., and Patzert, W. C.: Recent hiatus caused by decadal
shift in Indo-Pacific heating, Science, 349, 532–535,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4521, 2015.
Olson, R., Sriver, R., Goes, M., Urban, N. M., Matthews, H. D., Haran, M., and
Keller, K.: A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of
instrumental observations and an Earth System model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
117, D04103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016620, 2012.
Olson, R. J., Scurlock, J. M. O., Prince, S. D., Zheng, D. L., and
Johnson, K. R.:
NPP Multi-Biome: NPP and Driver Data for Ecosystem Model-Data
Intercomparison., Data set, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active
Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA,
available at: http://www.daac.ornl.gov (last access: 29 July 2010), 2001.
Orr, J. C.: Ocean Acidification, chap. 3: Recent and future changes in ocean
carbonate chemistry, Oxford University Press, New York, USA, 41–66,
2011.
Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A.,
Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Key, R. M., Lindsay, K.,
Maier-Reimer, E., Matear, R., Monfray, P., Mouchet, A., Najjar, R. G.,
Plattner, G.-K., Rodgers, K. B., Sabine, C. L., Sarmiento, J. L., Schlitzer,
R., Slater, R. D., Totterdell, I. J., Weirig, M. F., Yamanaka, Y., and Yool,
A.: Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its
impact on calcifying organisms, Nature, 437, 681–686, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04095, 2005.
Otto, A., Otto, F. E. L., Boucher, O., Church, J., Hegerl, G., Forster, P. M.,
Gillett, N. P., Gregory, J., Johnson, G. C., Knutti, R., Lewis, N., Lohmann,
U., Marotzke, J., Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Stevens, B., and Allen, M. R.:
Energy budget constraints on climate response, Nat. Geosci., 6, 415–416,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836, 2013.
Parekh, P., Joos, F., and Müller, S. A.: A modeling assessment of the
interplay between aeolian iron fluxes and iron-binding ligands in controlling
carbon dioxide fluctuations during Antarctic warm events, Paleoceanography,
23, PA4202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007PA001531, 2008.
Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Le Quere,
C., Marland, G., Raupach, M. R., and Wilson, C.: COMMENTARY: The challenge to
keep global warming below 2 degrees C, Nature Climate Change, 3, 4–6,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783, 2013.
Pfister, P. L. and Stocker, T. F.: Earth system commitments due to delayed
mitigation, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 014010,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014010, 2016.
Plattner, G.-K., Joos, F., Stocker, T. F., and Marchal, O.: Feedback mechanisms
and sensitivities of ocean carbon uptake under global warming, Tellus B, 53,
564–592, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.2001.530504.x, 2001.
Pörtner, H.-O., Gutowska, M., Ishimatsu, A., Lucassen, M., Meizner, F., and
Seibel, B. A.: Ocean Acidification, chap. 8: Effects of ocean acidification
on nektonic organisms, Oxford University Press, New York, USA, 154–175,
2011.
Prentice, I. C., Farquhar, G. D., Fasham, M. J. R., Goulden, M. L., Heimann,
M., Jaramillo, V. J., Kheshgi, H. S., Le Quéré, C., Scholes, R. J., and
Wallace, D. W. R.: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of
Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, chap.: The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA, 183–237, 2001.
Raich, J. W. and Schlesinger, W. H.: The global carnon-dioxide flux in soil
respiration and its relationship to vegetation and climate, Tellus B, 44,
81–99, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.1992.t01-1-00001.x, 1992.
Ritz, S. P., Stocker, T. F., and Joos, F.: A Coupled Dynamical Ocean-Energy
Balance Atmosphere Model for Paleoclimate Studies, J. Climate, 24, 349–375,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3351.1, 2011a.
Ritz, S. P., Stocker, T. F., and Severinghaus, J. P.: Noble gases as proxies of
mean ocean temperature: sensitivity studies using a climate model of reduced
complexity, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 3728–3741,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.09.021, 2011b.
Roberts, C. D., Palmer, M. D., McNeall, D., and Collins, M.: Quantifying the
likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming, Nature Climate Change, 5,
337–342, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2531, 2015.
Roemmich, D., Church, J., Gilson, J., Monselesan, D., Sutton, P., and Wijffels,
S.: Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006, Nature
Climate Change, 5, 240–245, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2513, 2015.
Rogelj, J., Hare, W., Lowe, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Matthews, B.,
Hanaoka, T., Jiang, K., and Meinshausen, M.: Emission pathways consistent
with a 2 degrees C global temperature limit, Nature Climate Change, 1, 413–418,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1258, 2011.
Schleussner, C.-F., Levermann, A., and Meinshausen, M.: Probabilistic
projections of the Atlantic overturning, Climatic Change, 127, 579–586,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2, 2014.
Schmittner, A., Urban, N. M., Keller, K., and Matthews, D.: Using tracer
observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean diapycnal mixing and
climate-carbon cycle projections, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB4009,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003421, 2009.
Schwartz, S. E.: Determination of Earth's Transient and Equilibrium Climate
Sensitivities from Observations Over the Twentieth Century: Strong Dependence
on Assumed Forcing, Surv. Geophys., 33, 745–777,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9180-4, 2012.
Sherwood, S. C. and Huber, M.: An adaptability limit to climate change due to
heat stress, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 9552–9555,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0913352107, 2010.
Shindell, D.: Reply to “Questions of bias in climate models”, Nature
Climate Change, 4, 742–743, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2346, 2014a.
Shindell, D. T.: Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity,
Nature Climate Change, 4, 274–277, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2136,
2014b.
Shine, K. P., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Hailemariam, K., and Stuber, N.: Alternatives
to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of
greenhouse gases, Climatic Change, 68, 281–302,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-1146-9, 2005.
Siegenthaler, U. and Oeschger, H.: Predicting future atmospheric carbon-dioxide
levels, Science, 199, 388–395, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.199.4327.388, 1978.
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W.,
Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and
Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and
terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model,
Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x, 2003.
Spahni, R., Joos, F., Stocker, B. D., Steinacher, M., and Yu, Z. C.:
Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern
peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century, Clim. Past, 9,
1287–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, 2013.
Stainforth, D. A.: Climate projection: Testing climate assumptions, Nature
Climate
Change, 4, 248–249, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2172, 2014.
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Plattner, G.-K., and Doney,
S. C.: Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR
global coupled carbon cycle-climate model, Biogeosciences, 6, 515–533,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-515-2009, 2009.
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., and Stocker, T. F.: Allowable carbon emissions
lowered by multiple climate targets, Nature, 499, 197–201,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12269, 2013.
Stocker, B. D., Feissli, F., Strassmann, K. M., Spahni, R., and Joos, F.: Past
and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood
harvest, Tellus B, 66, 23188, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23188, 2014.
Stocker, T. F.: The Closing Door of Climate Targets, Science, 339, 280–282,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1232468, 2013.
Strassmann, K. M., Joos, F., and Fischer, G.: Simulating effects of land use
changes on carbon fluxes: past contributions to atmospheric CO2
increases and future commitments due to losses of terrestrial sink capacity,
Tellus B, 60, 583–603, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2008.00340.x, 2008.
Strassmann, K. M., Plattner, G.-K., and Joos, F.: CO2 and non-CO2
radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation
scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 33, 737–749, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0505-4, 2009.
Tarnocai, C., Swanson, D., Kimble, J., and Broll, G.: Northern Circumpolar Soil
Carbon Database, Digital database, Research Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food
Canada, Ottawa, Canada, available at:
http://wms1.agr.gc.ca/NortherCircumpolar/northercircumpolar.zip (last access: 31 May 2010),
2007.
Tarnocai, C., Canadell, J. G., Schuur, E. A. G., Kuhry, P., Mazhitova, G., and
Zimov, S.: Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost
region, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003327, 2009.
Trumbore, S. E.: Age of soil organic matter and soil respiration: radiocarbon
constraints on belowground C dynamics, Ecol. Appl., 10, 399–411,
https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[0399:AOSOMA]2.0.CO;2, 2000.
United Nations: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
Document FCCC/INFORMAL/84 GE.05-62220 (E) 200705, United Nations,
available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf (last access: 29 September 2013), 1992.
United Nations: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its sixteenth
session, held in Cancun from 29 November to 10 December 2010, document
FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1, United Nations, available at:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf (last access: 29 September 2013),
2010.
United Nations: Conference of the Parties. ADOPTION OF THE PARIS
AGREEMENT, Proposal by the President, document FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1,
United Nations, available at:
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf (last access: 14 January 2016),
2015.
van der Werf, G. R. and Dolman, A. J.: Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) on deriving anthropogenic warming rates from the
instrumental temperature record, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 375–382,
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-375-2014, 2014.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Joos, F., Strassmann,
K. M., Smith, S. J., Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., de la
Chesnaye, F., den Elzen, M., Fujino, J., Jiang, K., Nakicenovic, N., Paltsev,
S., and Reilly, J. M.: Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation
scenarios, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 15258–15262,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0711129105, 2008.
von Schuckmann, K. and Le Traon, P.-Y.: How well can we derive Global Ocean
Indicators from Argo data?, Ocean Sci., 7, 783–791,
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-7-783-2011, 2011.
Weyant, J. R., de la Chesnaye, F. C., and Blanford, G. J.: Overview of
EMF-21: Multigas mitigation and climate policy, Energ. J., 27, 1–32,
2006.
Wigley, T. M. L. and Raper, S. C. B.: Interpretation of high projections for
global-mean warming, Science, 293, 451–454, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1061604,
2001.
Williamson, D., Goldstein, M., Allison, L., Blaker, A., Challenor, P., Jackson,
L., and Yamazaki, K.: History matching for exploring and reducing climate
model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics
ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1703–1729, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1896-4,
2013.
Yu, Z., Loisel, J., Brosseau, D. P., Beilman, D. W., and Hunt, S. J.: Global
peatland dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L13402,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043584, 2010.
Zaehle, S., Sitch, S., Smith, B., and Hatterman, F.: Effects of parameter
uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB3020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002395, 2005.
Zickfeld, K. and Herrington, T.: The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission
and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission, Environ. Res.
Lett., 10, 031001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031001, 2015.
Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., Matthews, H. D., and Weaver, A. J.: Setting cumulative
emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 16129–16134, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805800106, 2009.
Zickfeld, K., Arora, V. K., and Gillett, N. P.: Is the climate response to
CO2 emissions path dependent?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05703,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050205, 2012.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint