Articles | Volume 20, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 10 Nov 2023
| 10 Nov 2023
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
Geneviève W. Elsworth
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Nicole S. Lovenduski
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Kristen M. Krumhardt
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Thomas M. Marchitto
Department of Geological Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Sarah Schlunegger
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Joshua Coupe, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Luise S. Gleason, Michael N. Levy, Kristen Krumhardt, Keith Lindsay, Charles Bardeen, Clay Tabor, Cheryl Harrison, Kenneth G. MacLeod, Siddhartha Mitra, and Julio Sepúlveda
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-94, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a new feature in the atmosphere and ocean components of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We have implemented ultraviolet (UV) radiation inhibition of photosynthesis of four marine phytoplankton functional groups represented in the Marine Biogeochemistry Library. The new feature is tested with varying levels of UV radiation. The new feature will enable an analysis of an asteroid impact’s effect on the ozone layer and how that affects the base of the marine food web.
Cara Nissen, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Mathew Maltrud, Alison R. Gray, Yohei Takano, Kristen Falcinelli, Jade Sauvé, and Katherine Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6415–6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Autonomous profiling floats have provided unprecedented observational coverage of the global ocean, but uncertainties remain about whether their sampling frequency and density capture the true spatiotemporal variability of physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties. Here, we present the novel synthetic biogeochemical float capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 and demonstrate their utility as a test bed to address these uncertainties.
Genevieve L. Clow, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Michael N. Levy, Keith Lindsay, and Jennifer E. Kay
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 975–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations of chlorophyll allow us to study marine phytoplankton on a global scale; yet some of these observations are missing due to clouds and other issues. To investigate the impact of missing data, we developed a satellite simulator for chlorophyll in an Earth system model. We found that missing data can impact the global mean chlorophyll by nearly 20 %. The simulated observations provide a more direct comparison to real-world data and can be used to improve model validation.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Riley X. Brady, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Michael A. Alexander, Michael Jacox, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 16, 329–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-329-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-329-2019, 2019
Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Keith Lindsay, and Matthew C. Long
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 45–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years in advance. This is important because fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide is largely responsible for anthropogenic global warming and because carbon dioxide emission management and global carbon cycle budgeting exercises can benefit from foreknowledge of ocean carbon absorption. The promising results from this new forecast system justify the need for additional oceanic observations.
Galen A. McKinley, Alexis L. Ritzer, and Nicole S. Lovenduski
Biogeosciences, 15, 6049–6066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6049-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6049-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton biomass changed significantly in the North Atlantic north of 40° N over 1998–2007. With a physical-ecosystem model, we show that biomass increases in the northwest are due to reduced vertical mixing that partially relieves light limitation of phytoplankton. To the east, these circulation changes lead to fewer nutrients being supplied horizontally from the west. Relationships between these biomass variations and atmosphere and ocean physics are not straightforward.
Amanda R. Fay, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Galen A. McKinley, David R. Munro, Colm Sweeney, Alison R. Gray, Peter Landschützer, Britton B. Stephens, Taro Takahashi, and Nancy Williams
Biogeosciences, 15, 3841–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3841-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3841-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean is highly under-sampled and since this region dominates the ocean sink for CO2, understanding change is critical. Here we utilize available observations to evaluate how the seasonal cycle, variability, and trends in surface ocean carbon in the well-sampled Drake Passage region compare to that of the broader subpolar Southern Ocean. Results indicate that the Drake Passage is representative of the broader region; however, additional winter observations would improve comparisons.
Giuliana Turi, Michael Alexander, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Antonietta Capotondi, James Scott, Charles Stock, John Dunne, Jasmin John, and Michael Jacox
Ocean Sci., 14, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution global model was used to study the influence of El Niño/La Niña events on the California Current System (CalCS). The mean surface oxygen (O2) response extends well offshore, where the pH response occurs within ~ 100 km of the coast. The surface O2 (pH) is primarily driven by temperature (upwelling) changes. Below 100 m, anomalously low O2 and low pH occurred during La Niña events near the coast, potentially stressing the ecosystem, but there are large variations between events.
Natalie M. Freeman and Nicole S. Lovenduski
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 191–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-191-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-191-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Polar Front (PF) is an important physical and biogeochemical divide in the Southern Ocean, delineating distinct zones of temperature, nutrients and biological communities. Our study learns from and advances previous efforts to locate the PF via satellite by avoiding cloud contamination and providing circumpolar realizations at high spatio-temporal resolution. These realizations are consistent with concurrent in situ PF locations and previously published climatological PF positions.
Kristen M. Krumhardt, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Natalie M. Freeman, and Nicholas R. Bates
Biogeosciences, 13, 1163–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1163-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we combine phytoplankton pigment data with particulate inorganic carbon and chlorophyll measurements from the satellite record to assess recent trends in phytoplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a focus on coccolithophores. We show that coccolithophores in the North Atlantic have been increasing in abundance. Correlations suggest that they are responding positively to increasing inorganic carbon from anthropogenic inputs in the upper mixed layer.
N. S. Lovenduski, M. C. Long, and K. Lindsay
Biogeosciences, 12, 6321–6335, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate variability in surface ocean carbonate chemistry using output from a 1000-year control simulation of an Earth System Model. We find that the detection timescale for trends is strongly influenced by the variability. As the scientific community seeks to detect the anthropogenic influence on ocean carbonate chemistry, these results will aid the interpretation of trends calculated from spatially and temporally sparse observations.
A. Lenton, B. Tilbrook, R. M. Law, D. Bakker, S. C. Doney, N. Gruber, M. Ishii, M. Hoppema, N. S. Lovenduski, R. J. Matear, B. I. McNeil, N. Metzl, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, P. M. S. Monteiro, C. Rödenbeck, C. Sweeney, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 10, 4037–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Ocean alkalinity enhancement approaches and the predictability of runaway precipitation processes: results of an experimental study to determine critical alkalinity ranges for safe and sustainable application scenarios
Variations of polyphenols and carbohydrates of Emiliania huxleyi grown under simulated ocean acidification conditions
Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion
The biological and preformed carbon pumps in perpetually slower and warmer oceans
The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5
Mapping the future afforestation distribution of China constrained by a national afforestation plan and climate change
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
New ozone-nitrogen model shows early senescence onset is the primary cause of ozone-induced reduction in grain quality of wheat
Projected changes in forest fire season, number of fires and burnt area in Fennoscandia by 2100
Effect of the 2022 summer drought across forest types in Europe
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Responses of field-grown maize to different soil types, water regimes, and contrasting vapor pressure deficit
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the increase in ocean acidity extremes in the northeastern Pacific
The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Alkalinity biases in CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for simulated CO2 drawdown via artificial alkalinity enhancement
Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations
Acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient and biomass declines in a warming Mediterranean Sea
Ocean alkalinity enhancement – avoiding runaway CaCO3 precipitation during quick and hydrated lime dissolution
Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models
Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data
Contrasting responses of phytoplankton productivity between coastal and offshore surface waters in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to short-term seawater acidification
Modeling interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharges in the Kapuas River delta
The application of dendrometers to alpine dwarf shrubs – a case study to investigate stem growth responses to environmental conditions
Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
Evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of blue intensity on multiple conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand
Anthropogenic CO2-mediated freshwater acidification limits survival, calcification, metabolism, and behaviour in stress-tolerant freshwater crustaceans
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 4587–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study observed uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Milagros Rico, Paula Santiago-Díaz, Guillermo Samperio-Ramos, Melchor González-Dávila, and Juana Magdalena Santana-Casiano
Biogeosciences, 21, 4381–4394, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in pH generate stress conditions, either because high pH drastically decreases the availability of trace metals such as Fe(II), a restrictive element for primary productivity, or because reactive oxygen species are increased with low pH. The metabolic functions and composition of microalgae can be affected. These modifications in metabolites are potential factors leading to readjustments in phytoplankton community structure and diversity and possible alteration in marine ecosystems.
James A. King, James Weber, Peter Lawrence, Stephanie Roe, Abigail L. S. Swann, and Maria Val Martin
Biogeosciences, 21, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tackling climate change by adding, restoring, or enhancing forests is gaining global support. However, it is important to investigate the broader implications of this. We used a computer model of the Earth to investigate a future where tree cover expanded as much as possible. We found that some tropical areas were cooler because of trees pumping water into the atmosphere, but this also led to soil and rivers drying. This is important because it might be harder to maintain forests as a result.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Biogeosciences, 21, 3373–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How do perpetually slower and warmer oceans sequester carbon? Compared to the preindustrial state, we find that biological productivity declines despite warming-stimulated growth because of a lower nutrient supply from depth. This throttles the biological carbon pump, which still sequesters more carbon because it takes longer to return to the surface. The deep ocean is isolated from the surface, allowing more carbon from the atmosphere to pass through the ocean without contributing to biology.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation regions based on future high-resolution climate data and climate–vegetation models. After considering the national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation region was mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study provides a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
Biogeosciences, 21, 2509–2527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices for the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 21, 2355–2365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesize that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We find that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was also maintained under elevated levels of CO2.
Jo Cook, Clare Brewster, Felicity Hayes, Nathan Booth, Sam Bland, Pritha Pande, Samarthia Thankappan, Håkan Pleijel, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1311, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
At ground-level, the air pollutant ozone (O3) damages wheat yield and quality. We modified the DO3SE-Crop model to simulate O3 effects on wheat quality and identified onset of leaf death as the key process affecting wheat quality upon O3 exposure. This aligns with expectations as the onset of leaf death aids nutrient transfer from leaves to grains. Breeders should prioritize wheat varieties resistant to protein loss from delayed leaf death, to maintain yield and quality under O3.
Outi Kinnunen, Leif Backamn, Juha Aalto, Tuula Aalto, and Tiina Markkanen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-741, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase forest fire risk. Ecosystem process model simulations are used to project changes in fire occurrence in Fennoscandia under six climate projections. These findings suggest a more extended fire season, more fires and increased burnt area towards the end of the century.
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Jingfeng Xiao, Xing Li, and Nina Buchmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-423, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, Europe's forests faced unprecedented dry conditions. Our study aimed to understand how different forest types respond to extreme drought. Using meteorological data and satellite imagery, we compared 2022 with two previous extreme years, 2003 and 2018. Despite less severe drought in 2022, forests showed a 30 % greater decline in photosynthesis compared to 2018 and 60 % more than 2003. This suggests a concerning trend of declining forest resilience to more frequent droughts.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Thuy Huu Nguyen, Thomas Gaiser, Jan Vanderborght, Andrea Schnepf, Felix Bauer, Anja Klotzsche, Lena Lärm, Hubert Hüging, and Frank Ewert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2967, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Leaf water potential was at certain thresholds which depends on soil types, water treatment, and weather conditions. In rainfed plot, the lower water availability in the stony soil resulted in less roots with a higher root tissue conductance than the silty soil. In silty soil, higher stress in the rainfed soil led to more roots with a lower root tissue conductance than in the irrigated plot. Crop responses to water stress can be opposite depending on soil water conditions that are compared.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
Makcim L. De Sisto and Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-96, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
There is uncertainty about the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted to reach specific temperature targets. One source of uncertainty is the representation of the carbon cycle. We assessed the impact of terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus limitation. We found a reduction in the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted to reach temperature targets in the nutrient limited simulations. We found that nutrient limitation is an important factor to consider when estimating remaining carbon budgets.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Charly A. Moras, Lennart T. Bach, Tyler Cyronak, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai G. Schulz
Biogeosciences, 19, 3537–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents the first laboratory results of quick and hydrated lime dissolution in natural seawater. These two minerals are of great interest for ocean alkalinity enhancement, a strategy aiming to decrease atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Following the dissolution of these minerals, we identified several hurdles and presented ways to avoid them or completely negate them. Finally, we proceeded to various simulations in today’s oceans to implement the strategy at its highest potential.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil David Hartstein, Aazani Mujahid, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 3131–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deep coastal inlets are important sites for regulating land-based organic pollution before it enters coastal oceans. This study focused on how large climate forces, rainfall, and river flow impact organic loading and oxygen conditions in a coastal inlet in Tasmania. Increases in rainfall were linked to higher organic loading and lower oxygen in basin waters. Finally we observed a significant correlation between the Southern Annular Mode and oxygen concentrations in the system's basin waters.
Guang Gao, Tifeng Wang, Jiazhen Sun, Xin Zhao, Lifang Wang, Xianghui Guo, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 19, 2795–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
After conducting large-scale deck-incubation experiments, we found that seawater acidification (SA) increased primary production (PP) in coastal waters but reduced it in pelagic zones, which is mainly regulated by local pH, light intensity, salinity, and community structure. In future oceans, SA combined with decreased upward transports of nutrients may synergistically reduce PP in pelagic zones.
Joko Sampurno, Valentin Vallaeys, Randy Ardianto, and Emmanuel Hanert
Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first assessment to evaluate the interactions between river discharges, tides, and storm surges and how they can drive compound flooding in the Kapuas River delta. We successfully created a realistic hydrodynamic model whose domain covers the land–sea continuum using a wetting–drying algorithm in a data-scarce environment. We then proposed a new method to delineate compound flooding hazard zones along the river channels based on the maximum water level profiles.
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Alex R. Quijada-Rodriguez, Pou-Long Kuan, Po-Hsuan Sung, Mao-Ting Hsu, Garett J. P. Allen, Pung Pung Hwang, Yung-Che Tseng, and Dirk Weihrauch
Biogeosciences, 18, 6287–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic CO2 is chronically acidifying aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to determine the impact of future freshwater acidification on the physiology and behaviour of an important aquaculture crustacean, Chinese mitten crabs. We report that elevated freshwater CO2 levels lead to impairment of calcification, locomotor behaviour, and survival and reduced metabolism in this species. Results suggest that present-day calcifying invertebrates could be heavily affected by freshwater acidification.
Cited articles
Arora, V., Scinocca, J., Boer, G., Christian, J., Denman, K., Flato, G., Kharin, V., Lee, W., and Merryfield, W.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011. a
Behrenfeld, M.: Abandoning Sverdrup's Critical Depth Hypothesis on phytoplankton blooms, Ecology, 91, 977–89, https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1207.1, 2010. a
Behrenfeld, M., Doney, S., Lima, I., Boss, E., and Siegel, D.: Annual cycles of ecological disturbance and recovery underlying the subarctic Atlantic spring plankton bloom: PHYTOPLANKTON BLOOMS, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 526–540, https://doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20050, 2013. a
Bellacicco, M., Pitarch, J., Organelli, E., Martinez-Vicente, V., Volpe, G., and Marullo, S.: Improving the Retrieval of Carbon-Based Phytoplankton Biomass from Satellite Ocean Colour Observations, Remote Sens., 12, 3640, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12213640, 2020. a, b
Benedetti, F., Vogt, M., Hofmann Elizondo, U., Righetti, D., Zimmermann, N., and Gruber, N.: Major restructuring of marine plankton assemblages under global warming, Nat. Commun., 12, 5226, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25385-x, 2021. a
Blanchard, J., Jennings, S., Holmes, R., Harle, J., Merino, G., Allen, I., Holt, J., Dulvy, N., and Barange, M.: Potential consequences of climate change on primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 367, 2979–2989, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0231, 2012. a, b
Blanchard, J., Watson, R., Fulton, E., Cottrell, R., Nash, K., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Büchner, M., Carozza, D., Cheung, W., Elliott, J., Davidson, L., Dulvy, N., Dunne, J., Eddy, T., Galbraith, E., Lotze, H., Maury, O., Müller, C., Tittensor, D., and Jennings, S.: Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture, Nature, 1, 1240–1249, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0258-8, 2017. a
Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., and Orr, J.: Potential impact of climate change on marine export production, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 81–100, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GB001256, 2001. a, b, c
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J., Doney, S., Dunne, J., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: Projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d, e
Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Kwiatkowski, L., Clerc, C., Dupont, L., Ethé, C., Gorgues, T., Séférian, R., and Tagliabue, A.: Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change, Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022. a
Brewin, B., Sathyendranath, S., Platt, T., Bouman, H., Ciavatta, S., Dall'Olmo, G., Dingle, J., Groom, S., Jönsson, B., Kostadinov, T., Kulk, G., Laine, M., Martinez-Vicente, V., Psarra, S., Raitsos, D., Richardson, K., Rio, M.-H., Rousseaux, C., Salisbury, J., and Walker, P.: Sensing the ocean biological carbon pump from space: A review of capabilities, concepts, research gaps and future developments, Earth-Sci. Rev., 217, 103604, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103604, 2021. a
Cai, W., Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., Rensch, P., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Timmermann, A., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M., Wu, L., England, M., Wang, G., Guilyardi, E., and Jin, F.-F.: Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño Events due to greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 111–116, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100, 2014. a
Cai, W., Wang, G., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M., Wu, L., Jin, F.-F., Timmermann, A., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Lengaigne, M., England, M., Dommenget, D., Takahashi, K., and Guilyardi, E.: Increased frequency of extreme La Niña Events under greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 132–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2492, 2015. a
Cai, W., Ng, B., Wang, G., Santoso, A., Wu, L., and Yang, K.: Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 228–231, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z, 2022. a
Chassot, E., Bonhommeau, S., Dulvy, N., Mélin, F., Watson, R., and le Pape, O.: Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches, Ecol. Lett., 13, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01443.x, 2010. a
Cheung, W., Lam, V., Sarmiento, J., Kearney, K., Watson, R., and Pauly, D.: Projecting Global Marine Biodiversity Impacts under Climate Change Scenarios, Fish Fish., 10, 235–251, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x, 2009. a
Cheung, W., Lam, V., Sarmiento, J., Kearney, K., Watson, R., Zeller, D., and Pauly, D.: Large-scale Redistribution of Maximum Fisheries Catch Potential in the Global Ocean under Climate Change, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 24–35, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x, 2010. a
Christensen, V. and Walters, C.: Ecopath With Ecosim: Methods, Capabilities and Limitations, Ecol. Model., 172, 109–139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.09.003, 2004. a, b
Christensen, V., Coll, M., Buszowski, J., Cheung, W., Frölicher, T., Steenbeek, J., Stock, C., Watson, R., and Walters, C.: The global ocean is an ecosystem: Simulating marine life and fisheries, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 24, 507–517, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12281, 2015. a, b
Christian, J., Arora, V., Boer, G., Curry, C., Zahariev, K., Denman, K., Flato, G., Lee, W., Merryfield, W., Roulet, N., and Scinocca, J.: The global carbon cycle in the Canadian Earth system model (CanESM1): Preindustrial control simulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 115, G03014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JG000920, 2010. a
Danabasoglu, G., Bates, S. C., Briegleb, B. P., Jayne, S. R., Jochum, M., Large, W. G., Peacock, S., and Yeager, S. G.: The CCSM4 ocean component, J. Clim., 25, 1361–1389, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1, 2012. a, b
Dannouf, R., Yong, B., Ndehedehe, C., Correa, F., and Ferreira, V.: Boosted Regression Tree Algorithm for the Reconstruction of GRACE-Based Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin, Front. Environ. Sci., 10, 917545, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.917545, 2022. a
Denvil-Sommer, A., Buitenhuis, E., Kiko, R., Fabien, L., Guidi, L., and Le Quéré, C.: Testing the reconstruction of modelled particulate organic carbon from surface ecosystem components using PlankTOM12 and machine learning, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2995-2023, 2023. a
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2010. a, b
Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S., and Phillips, A.: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 775–779, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1562, 2012. a
Doney, S., Lindsay, K., Fung, I., and John, J.: Natural variability in a stable, 1000-Yr global coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation, J. Clim., 19, 3033–3054, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3783.1, 2006. a
Dunne, J., John, J., Adcroft, A., Griffies, S., Hallberg, R., Shevliakova, E., Ronald, S., Cooke, W., Dunne, K., Harrison, M., Krasting, J., Malyshev, S., Milly, P., Phillips, P., Sentman, L., Samuels, B., Spelman, M., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL's ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models, Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics, J. Clim., 25, 6646–6665, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00560.1, 2012. a
Dunne, J., John, J., Shevliakova, E., Ronald, S., Krasting, J., Malyshev, S., Milly, P., Sentman, L., Adcroft, A., Cooke, W., Dunne, K., Griffies, S., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Levy, H., Wittenberg, A., Phillips, P., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL's ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models, Part II: Carbon System Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics, J. Clim., 26, 2247–2267, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00150.1, 2013. a
Elith, J., Leathwick, J., and Hastie, T.: A Working Guide to Boosted Regression Trees, J. Anim. Ecol., 77, 802–13, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01390.x, 2008. a
Elsworth, G., Lovenduski, N., McKinnon, K., Krumhardt, K., and Brady, R.: Finding the Fingerprint of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Marine Phytoplankton Abundance, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 6 37–46, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00156-w, 2020. a
Elsworth, G., Lovenduski, N., and McKinnon, K.: Alternate History: A Synthetic Ensemble of Ocean Chlorophyll Concentrations, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 35, e2020GB006924, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006924, 2021. a
Falkowski, P.: Ocean Science: The power of plankton, Nature, 483, S17–S20, https://doi.org/10.1038/483S17a, 2012. a
FAO: The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2020, Sustainability in action, Rome, The United Nations, https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9229en, 2020. a, b
Flanagan, P., Jensen, O., Morley, J., and Pinsky, M.: Response of marine communities to local temperature changes, Ecography, 42, 214–224, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03961, 2018. a
Geider, R., Macintyre, H., and Kana, T.: A dynamic regulatory model of phytoplanktonic acclimation to light, nutrients, and temperature, Limnol. Oceanogr., 43, 679–694, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1998.43.4.0679, 1998. a
Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Gorges, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., and Stevens, B.: Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 572–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20038, 2013. a
Hashioka, T., Vogt, M., Yamanaka, Y., Le Quéré, C., Buitenhuis, E. T., Aita, M. N., Alvain, S., Bopp, L., Hirata, T., Lima, I., Sailley, S., and Doney, S. C.: Phytoplankton competition during the spring bloom in four plankton functional type models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6833–6850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, 2013. a
Heneghan, R., Galbraith, E., Blanchard, J., Harrison, C., Barrier, N., Bulman, C., Cheung, W., Coll, M., Eddy, T., Erauskin-Extramiana, M., Everett, J., Fernandes, J., Guiet, J., Maury, O., Palacios Abrantes, J., Petrik, C., Du Pontavice, H., Richardson, A., and Tittensor, D.: Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models, Prog. Oceanogr., 198, 102659, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102659, 2021. a
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P., Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J., and Marshall, S.: The Community Earth System Model: A framework for collaborative research, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339–1360, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1, 2013. a
Ilyina, T., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Maier-Reimer, E., Li, H., and Núñez-Riboni, I.: Global ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC: Model architecture and performance as component of the MPI-Earth System Model in different CMIP5 experimental realizations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 287–315, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012MS000178, 2013. a
Jennings, S. and Collingridge, K.: Predicting Consumer Biomass, Size-Structure, Production, Catch Potential, Responses to Fishing and Associated Uncertainties in the World's Marine Ecosystems, PLoS ONE, 10, e0133794, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133794, 2015. a, b
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M., Kushner, P., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1333–1349, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1, 2015. a, b
Kay, J. and Deser, C.: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project, UCAR/NCAR Climate Data Gateway [data set], 2016. a
Kostadinov, T., Milutinovic, S., Marinov, I., and Cabre, A.: Carbon-based phytoplankton size classes retrieved via ocean color estimates of the particle size distribution, Ocean Sci., 12, 561–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-561-2016, 2016. a
Krumhardt, K., Lovenduski, N., Long, M., Levy, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J., and Nissen, C.: Coccolithophore Growth and Calcification in an Acidified Ocean: Insights From Community Earth System Model Simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 1418–1437, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001483, 2019. a
Kwiatkowski, L. and Orr, J.: Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 141–146, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0, 2018. a
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J., Dunne, J., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J., Lenton, A., Li, H., Lovenduski, N., Orr, J., Palmiéri, J., Santana-Falcón, Y., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, C., and Ziehn, T.: Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections, Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010. a, b
Lamb, S., Haacker, E., and Smidt, S.: Influence of Irrigation Drivers Using Boosted Regression Trees: Kansas High Plains, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028867, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028867, 2021. a
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., Bakker, D., Stemmler, I., and Six, K.: Strengthening seasonal marine CO2 variations due to increasing atmospheric CO2, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 146–150, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0057-x, 2018. a
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J., Hashioka, T., Hauck, J., Hirata, T., John, J., Le Quéré, C., Lima, I. D., Nakano, H., Seferian, R., Totterdell, I., Vichi, M., and Völker, C.: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models, Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Lehodey, P., Murtugudde, R., and Senina, I.: Bridging the gap from ocean models to population dynamics of large marine predators: A model of mid-trophic functional groups, Prog. Oceanogr., 84, 69–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.09.008, 2010. a, b
Link, J. and Marshak, A.: Characterizing and comparing marine fisheries ecosystems in the United States: determinants of success in moving toward ecosystem-based fisheries management, Rev. Fish Biol. Fish., 29, 23–70, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-018-9544-z, 2019. a
Long, M., Moore, J., Lindsay, K., Levy, M., Doney, S., Luo, J., Krumhardt, K., Letscher, R., Grover, M., and Sylvester, Z.: Simulations with the Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL), J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 13, e2021MS002647, https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10507358.1, 2021. a
Longhurst, A.: Ecological Geography of the Sea, Academic Press, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-012455521-1/50002-4, 2007. a, b
Lotze, H., Tittensor, D., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Eddy, T., Cheung, W., Galbraith, E., Barange, M., Barrier, N., Bianchi, D., Blanchard, J., Bopp, L., Büchner, M., Bulman, C., Carozza, D., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Dunne, J., Fulton, E., Jennings, S., and Worm, B.: Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 10, 12907–12912, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116, 2019. a, b
Manabe, S. and Ronald, S.: Century-Scale Effects of Increased Atmospheric CO2 on the Ocean-Atmosphere System, Nature, 364, 215–218, https://doi.org/10.1038/364215a0, 1993. a
Marshak, A. and Link, J.: Primary production ultimately limits fisheries economic performance, Sci. Rep., 11, 12154, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91599-0, 2021. a
Martinez-Vicente, V., Evers-King, H., Roy, S., Kostadinov, T., Tarran, G., Graff, J., Brewin, B., Dall'Olmo, G., Jackson, T., Hickman, A., Röttgers, R., Krasemann, H., Maranon, E., Platt, T., and Sathyendranath, S.: Intercomparison of Ocean Color Algorithms for Picophytoplankton Carbon in the Ocean, Front. Mar. Sci., 4, 378, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00378, 2017. a
Maury, O.: An overview of APECOSM, a spatialized mass balanced “Apex Predators ECOSystem Model” to study physiologically structured tuna population dynamics in their ecosystem, Prog. Oceanogr., 84, 113–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.09.013, 2010. a, b
McKinnon, K. and Deser, C.: Internal variability and regional climate trends in an observational large ensemble, J. Clim., 31, 6783–6802, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1, 2018. a
McKinnon, K., Poppick, A., Dunn-Sigouin, E., and Deser, C.: An “observational large ensemble” to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability, J. Clim., 30, 7585–7598, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0905.1, 2017. a
Meehl, G., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Ronald, S., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M., Greene, A., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra, A., Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D., and Stockdale, T.: Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1467–1485, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1, 2009. a, b
Meehl, G., Hu, A., Arblaster, J., Fasullo, J., and Trenberth, K.: Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, J. Clim., 26, 7298–7310, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1, 2013. a
Meehl, G., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., and Yeager, S.: Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 243–267, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1, 2014. a, b
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Calvin, K., Daniel, J., Kainuma, M., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S., Raper, S., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and Vuuren, D.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011. a
Mills, K., Pershing, A., Brown, C., Chen, Y., Chiang, F.-S., Holland, D., Lehuta, S., Nye, J., Sun, J., Thomas, A., and Wahle, R.: Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate: Lessons From the 2012 Ocean Heat Wave in the Northwest Atlantic, Oceanography, 26, 191–195, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.27, 2013. a
Moore, C., Morley, J., Morrison, B., Kolian, M., Horsch, E., Frolicher, T., Pinsky, M., and Griffis, R.: Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on 16 Major U.S. Fisheries, Clim. Change Econ., 12, 2150002, https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007821500020, 2021. a
Moore, J., Lindsay, K., Doney, S., Long, M., and Misumi, K.: Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: Comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios, J. Clim., 26, 9291–9312, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00566.1, 2013. a
Moore, J. K. and Braucher, O.: Sedimentary and mineral dust sources of dissolved iron to the world ocean, Biogeosciences, 5, 631–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-631-2008, 2008. a
Moore, K., Doney, S., and Lindsay, K.: Upper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4028, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002220, 2004. a, b, c
Pauly, D. and Christensen, V.: Primary production required to sustain global fisheries, Nature, 374, 255–257, https://doi.org/10.1038/374255a0, 1995. a
Perry, A., Low, P., Ellis, J., and Reynolds, J.: Climate Change and Distribution Shifts in Marine Fishes, Science, 308, 1912–1915, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111322, 2005. a
Petrik, C., Stock, C., Andersen, K., van Denderen, D., and Watson, J.: Bottom-up drivers of global patterns of demersal, forage, and pelagic fishes, Prog. Oceanogr., 176, 102124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2019.102124, 2019. a
Prowe, A. F., Pahlow, M., Dutkiewicz, S., Follows, M., and Oschlies, A.: Top-down control of marine phytoplankton diversity in a global ecosystem model, Prog. Oceanogr., 101, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2011.11.016, 2012a. a
Prowe, A. F., Pahlow, M., and Oschlies, A.: Controls on the diversity–productivity relationship in a marine ecosystem model, Ecol. Model., 225, 167–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.11.018, 2012b. a
Resplandy, L., Séférian, R., and Bopp, L.: Natural variability of CO2 and O2 fluxes: What can we learn from centuries-long climate models simulations?, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 120, 384–404, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010463, 2015. a, b
Roberts, D., Bahn, V., Ciuti, S., Boyce, M., Elith, J., Guillera-Arroita, G., Hauenstein, S., Lahoz-Monfort, J., Schröder, B., Thuiller, W., Warton, D., Wintle, B., Hartig, F., and Dormann, C.: Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure, Ecography, 40, 913–929, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02881, 2016. a
Rodgers, K. B., Lee, S.-S., Rosenbloom, N., Timmermann, A., Danabasoglu, G., Deser, C., Edwards, J., Kim, J.-E., Simpson, I. R., Stein, K., Stuecker, M. F., Yamaguchi, R., Bódai, T., Chung, E.-S., Huang, L., Kim, W. M., Lamarque, J.-F., Lombardozzi, D. L., Wieder, W. R., and Yeager, S. G.: Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021. a
Roy, S., Sathyendranath, S., and Platt, T.: Size-partitioned phytoplankton carbon and carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio from ocean colour by an absorption-based bio-optical algorithm, Remote Sens. Environ., 194, 177–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.02.015, 2017. a
Santer, B., Mears, C., Doutriaux, C., Caldwell, P., Gleckler, P., Wigley, T., Solomon, S., Gillett, N., Ivanova, D., Karl, T., Lanzante, J., Meehl, G., Stott, P., Taylor, K., Thorne, P., Wehner, M., and Wentz, F.: Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D22105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016263, 2011. a
Sathyendranath, S., Platt, T., Kovac, Z., Dingle, J., Jackson, T., Brewin, B., Franks, P., Maranon, E., Kulk, G., and Bouman, H.: Reconciling models of primary production and photoacclimation, Appl. Optics, 59, C100–C113, https://doi.org/10.1364/AO.386252, 2020. a
Schmittner, A.: Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation, Nature, 434, 628–33, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03476, 2005. a
Schneider, D. and Deser, C.: Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4599–4618, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3893-5, 2018. a
Staudinger, M., Mills, K., Stamieszkin, K., Record, N., Hudak, C., Allyn, A., Diamond, T., Friedland, K., Golet, W., Henderson, M., Hernandez, C., Huntington, T., Ji, R., Johnson, C., Johnson, D., Jordaan, A., Kocik, J., Li, Y., Liebman, M., and Yakola, K.: It's about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, Fish. Oceanogr., 28, 532–566, https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12429, 2019. a
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J., Schneider, B., and Segschneider, J.: Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: A multi-model analysis, Biogeosciences, 7, 979–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-979-2010, 2010. a, b, c, d
Stock, C., John, J., Rykaczewski, R., Asch, R., Cheung, W., Dunne, J., Friedland, K., Lam, V., Sarmiento, J., and Watson, R.: Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, E1441–E1449, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610238114, 2017. a
Stocker, T. and Schmittner, A.: Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation, Nature, 388, 862–865, https://doi.org/10.1038/42224, 1997. a
Tagliabue, A., Kwiatkowski, L., Bopp, L., Butenschön, M., Cheung, W., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.: Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services, Front. Clim., 3, 738224, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.738224, 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Timmermann, A., Oberhuber, J., Bacher, A., Esch, M., Latif, M., and Roeckner, E.: Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming, Nature, 398, 694–697, https://doi.org/10.1038/19505, 1999. a
Tittensor, D., Eddy, T., Lotze, H., Galbraith, E., Cheung, W., Barange, M., Blanchard, J., Bopp, L., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Büchner, M., Bulman, C., Carozza, D., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Dunne, J., Fernandes, J., Fulton, E., Hobday, A., Huber, V., and Walker, N.: A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018. a, b
Tittensor, D., Blanchard, J., Fulton, E., Cheung, W., Novaglio, C., Harrison, C., Heneghan, R., Barrier, N., Bianchi, D., Bopp, L., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Britten, G., Büchner, M., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Dunne, J., Eddy, T., Everett, J., Fernandes, J., and Stock, C.: Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 973–981, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9, 2021. a, b
Travers-Trolet, M., Shin, Y.-J., Jennings, S., Machu, E., Huggett, J., Field, J., and Cury, P.: Two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of plankton and fish models to predict ecosystem changes in the Benguela, Ecol. Model., 220, 3089–3099, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.08.016, 2009. a, b
Wernberg, T., Bennett, S., Babcock, R., de Bettignies, T., Cure, K., Depczynski, M., Dufois, F., Fromont, J., Fulton, C., Hovey, R., Harvey, E., Holmes, T., Kendrick, G., Radford, B., Santana-Garcon, J., Saunders, B., Smale, D., Thomsen, M., Tuckett, C., and Wilson, S.: Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem, Science, 353, 169–172, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8745, 2016. a
Yamaguchi, R., Rodgers, K., Timmermann, A., Stein, K., Schlunegger, S., Bianchi, D., Dunne, J., and Slater, R.: Trophic level decoupling drives future changes in phytoplankton bloom phenology, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01353-1, 2022. a, b
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here,...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint