Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2363-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2363-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Ideas and perspectives
| 
19 May 2025
Ideas and perspectives |
| 19 May 2025
| 19 May 2025
Ideas and perspectives: How sediment archives can improve model projections of marine ecosystem change
Isabell Hochfeld
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Ben A. Ward
School of Ocean & Earth Science, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton, United Kingdom
Anke Kremp
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde IOW, Rostock, Germany
Juliane Romahn
Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
LOEWE Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Institute of Insect Biotechnology, Justus Liebig University Gießen, Gießen, Germany
Alexandra Schmidt
Environmental Genomics, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Radolfzell, Germany
Miklós Bálint
Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
LOEWE Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Institute of Insect Biotechnology, Justus Liebig University Gießen, Gießen, Germany
Lutz Becks
Aquatic Ecology and Evolution, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
Jérôme Kaiser
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde IOW, Rostock, Germany
Helge W. Arz
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde IOW, Rostock, Germany
Sarah Bolius
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde IOW, Rostock, Germany
Laura S. Epp
Environmental Genomics, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
Markus Pfenninger
Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Christopher A. Klausmeier
Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, USA
Elena Litchman
Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, USA
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
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Short summary
Marine ecosystem models (MEMs) are valuable for assessing the threats of global warming to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but their predictions vary widely. We argue that MEMs should consider evolutionary processes and undergo independent validation. Here, we present a novel framework for MEM development using validation data from sediment archives, which map long-term environmental and evolutionary change. Our approach is a crucial step towards improving the predictive power of MEMs.
Marine ecosystem models (MEMs) are valuable for assessing the threats of global warming to...
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