Articles | Volume 18, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 23 Jul 2021
| 23 Jul 2021
Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming
Damien Couespel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
Marina Lévy
LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
Laurent Bopp
LMD-IPSL, École Normale Supérieure/PSL University, CNRS, École Polytechnique, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Timothée Bourgeois, Giang T. Tran, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Schwinger, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Thorsten Blenckner, Olivier Torres, Jean Negrel, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 22, 5435–5462, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Mathieu Delteil, Marina Lévy, and Laurent Bopp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2805, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is losing oxygen due to climate change, threatening ecosystems, especially in naturally low-oxygen areas called Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs). Using the IPSL-CM6A-LR Large Ensemble, this study identifies when climate-driven changes in OMZ volumes and regional deoxygenation emerge from natural variability. We highlight hemispheric asymmetries due to ocean ventilation and provide model-based estimates for the timing of detectable OMZ evolution.
Marina Lévy, Karina von Schuckmann, Patrick Vincent, Bruno Blanke, Joachim Claudet, Patrice Guillotreau, Audrey Hasson, Claire Jolly, Yunne Shin, Olivier Thébaud, Adrien Vincent, and Pierre Bahurel
State Planet, 6-osr9, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean is vital to humanity, but humans are putting it at risk. The Starfish Barometer is a new yearly civic rendezvous that shows how people and the Ocean affect each other. Using science-based facts, it highlights major trends in ocean health, the pressures it faces, the harm to people, and current protection efforts and opportunities. The goal is to raise awareness to secure a better future for the Ocean and humanity.
Alex Nalivaev, Francesco d'Ovidio, Laurent Bopp, Maristella Berta, Louise Rousselet, Clara Azarian, and Stéphane Blain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2145, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Kerguelen region hosts a phytoplankton bloom influenced by several iron sources. In particular, glaciers supply iron to the coastal waters. However, the importance of glacial iron for the bloom is not known. Here we calculate iron transport pathways from glaciers to the open ocean using in situ and satellite data, showing that one third of the offshore bloom is reached by glacial iron. These results are important in the context of the melting of the Kerguelen ice cap under climate change.
Madhavan Girijakumari Keerthi, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Marina Levy
Biogeosciences, 22, 2163–2180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2163-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2163-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed how well climate models replicate sub-seasonal changes in ocean chlorophyll observed by satellites. Models struggle to capture these variations accurately. Some overestimate fluctuations and their impact on annual chlorophyll variability, while others underestimate them. The underestimation is likely due to limited model resolution, while the overestimation may come from internal model oscillations.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Stéphane Doléac, Marina Lévy, Roy El Hourany, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 22, 841–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The marine biogeochemistry components of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models vary widely in their process representations. Using an innovative bioregionalization of the North Atlantic, we reveal that this model diversity largely drives the divergence in net primary production projections under a high-emission scenario. The identification of the most mechanistically realistic models allows for a substantial reduction in projection uncertainty.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, and Lester Kwiatkowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-523, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Disparities in ocean carbon sink estimates derived from observations and models raise questions about our ability to accurately assess its magnitude and trend. Essential for isolating the anthropogenic component of the total air-sea carbon flux estimated from observations, the pre-industrial air-sea carbon flux is a key source of uncertainty. Thus, we take a fresh look at this flux using the alkalinity budget, alongside the carbon budget which had previously been considered alone.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Olivier Torres
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 565–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidification is likely to impact all stages of the ocean carbonate pump. We show divergent responses of CaCO3 export throughout this century in earth system models, with anomalies by 2100 ranging from −74 % to +23 % under a high-emission scenario. While we confirm the limited impact of carbonate pump anomalies on 21st century ocean carbon uptake and acidification, we highlight a potentially abrupt shift in CaCO3 dissolution from deep to subsurface waters beyond 2100.
Roy El Hourany, Juan Pierella Karlusich, Lucie Zinger, Hubert Loisel, Marina Levy, and Chris Bowler
Ocean Sci., 20, 217–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations offer valuable information on phytoplankton abundance and community structure. Here, we employ satellite observations to infer seven phytoplankton groups at a global scale based on a new molecular method from Tara Oceans. The link has been established using machine learning approaches. The output of this work provides excellent tools to collect essential biodiversity variables and a foundation to monitor the evolution of marine biodiversity.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
David T. Ho, Laurent Bopp, Jaime B. Palter, Matthew C. Long, Philip W. Boyd, Griet Neukermans, and Lennart T. Bach
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-12-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-12-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) refers to the multistep process to quantify the amount of carbon dioxide removed by a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activity. Here, we make recommendations for MRV for Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) research, arguing that it has an obligation for comprehensiveness, reproducibility, and transparency, as it may become the foundation for assessing large-scale deployment. Both observations and numerical simulations will be needed for MRV.
Inès Mangolte, Marina Lévy, Clément Haëck, and Mark D. Ohman
Biogeosciences, 20, 3273–3299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean fronts are ecological hotspots, associated with higher diversity and biomass for many marine organisms, from bacteria to whales. Using in situ data from the California Current Ecosystem, we show that far from being limited to the production of diatom blooms, fronts are the scene of complex biophysical couplings between biotic interactions (growth, competition, and predation) and transport by currents that generate planktonic communities with an original taxonomic and spatial structure.
Saeed Hariri, Sabrina Speich, Bruno Blanke, and Marina Lévy
Ocean Sci., 19, 1183–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1183-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1183-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a series of studies conducted by the authors on the application of the Lagrangian approach for the connectivity analysis between different ocean locations in an idealized open-ocean model. We assess how the connectivity properties of typical oceanic flows are affected by the fine-scale circulation and discuss the challenges facing ocean connectivity estimates related to the spatial resolution. Our results are important to improve the understanding of marine ecosystems.
Clément Haëck, Marina Lévy, Inès Mangolte, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 20, 1741–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1741-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1741-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton vary in abundance in the ocean over large regions and with the seasons but also because of small-scale heterogeneities in surface temperature, called fronts. Here, using satellite imagery, we found that fronts enhance phytoplankton much more where it is already growing well, but despite large local increases the enhancement for the region is modest (5 %). We also found that blooms start 1 to 2 weeks earlier over fronts. These effects may have implications for ecosystems.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Corentin Clerc, Laurent Bopp, Fabio Benedetti, Meike Vogt, and Olivier Aumont
Biogeosciences, 20, 869–895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gelatinous zooplankton play a key role in the ocean carbon cycle. In particular, pelagic tunicates, which feed on a wide size range of prey, produce rapidly sinking detritus. Thus, they efficiently transfer carbon from the surface to the depths. Consequently, we added these organisms to a marine biogeochemical model (PISCES-v2) and evaluated their impact on the global carbon cycle. We found that they contribute significantly to carbon export and that this contribution increases with depth.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Alain de Verneil, Zouhair Lachkar, Shafer Smith, and Marina Lévy
Biogeosciences, 19, 907–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-907-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-907-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Arabian Sea is a natural CO2 source to the atmosphere, but previous work highlights discrepancies between data and models in estimating air–sea CO2 flux. In this study, we use a regional ocean model, achieve a flux closer to available data, and break down the seasonal cycles that impact it, with one result being the great importance of monsoon winds. As demonstrated in a meta-analysis, differences from data still remain, highlighting the great need for further regional data collection.
Zouhair Lachkar, Michael Mehari, Muchamad Al Azhar, Marina Lévy, and Shafer Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 5831–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5831-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5831-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study documents and quantifies a significant recent oxygen decline in the upper layers of the Arabian Sea and explores its drivers. Using a modeling approach we show that the fast local warming of sea surface is the main factor causing this oxygen drop. Concomitant summer monsoon intensification contributes to this trend, although to a lesser extent. These changes exacerbate oxygen depletion in the subsurface, threatening marine habitats and altering the local biogeochemistry.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Clément Bricaud, Julien Le Sommer, Gurvan Madec, Christophe Calone, Julie Deshayes, Christian Ethe, Jérôme Chanut, and Marina Levy
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5465–5483, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5465-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5465-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In order to reduce the cost of ocean biogeochemical models, a multi-grid approach where ocean dynamics and tracer transport are computed with different spatial resolution has been developed in the NEMO v3.6 OGCM. Different experiments confirm that the spatial resolution of hydrodynamical fields can be coarsened without significantly affecting the resolved passive tracer fields. This approach leads to a factor of 7 reduction of the overhead associated with running a full biogeochemical model.
Cited articles
Bahl, A., Gnanadesikan, A., and Pradal, M.-A. S.: Scaling global warming
impacts on ocean ecosystems: Lessons from a suite of earth system models,
Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 698, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00698, 2020. a
Beaulieu, C., Henson, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P., Doney, S. C., Rykaczewski, R. R., and Bopp, L.: Factors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll, Biogeosciences, 10, 2711–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, 2013. a
Bindoff, N. L., Cheung, W. W., Kairo, J., Arístegui, J., Guinder, V.,
Hallberg, R., Hilmi, N., Jiao, N., Karim, M., Levin, L., O'Donoghue, S.,
Purca Cuicapusa, S., Rinkevich, B., Suga, T., Tagliabue, A., and Williamson,
P.: Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, and dependent communities, in: IPCC
special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, section: 5, edited by:
Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M.,
Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegria, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold,
J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N., in press, 2019. a, b, c, d
Bonan, G. B. and Doney, S. C.: Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures:
The challenge to predict life in Earth system models, Science, 359, eaam8328,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam8328, 2018. a
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013. a
Boyce, D. G., Lewis, M. R., and Worm, B.: Global phytoplankton decline over the
past century, Nature, 466, 591–596, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09268, 2010. a
Bras, I. L., Straneo, F., Muilwijk, M., Smedsrud, L. H., Li, F., Lozier, M. S.,
and Holliday, N. P.: How Much Arctic Fresh Water Participates in
the Subpolar Overturning Circulation?, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 51, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0240.1,
2021. a, b
Bronselaer, B., Zanna, L., Munday, D. R., and Lowe, J.: The influence of
Southern Ocean winds on the North Atlantic carbon sink, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 844–858,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005364, 2016. a
Cavicchioli, R., Ripple, W. J., Timmis, K. N., Azam, F., Bakken, L. R., Baylis,
M., Behrenfeld, M. J., Boetius, A., Boyd, P. W., Classen, A. T., Crowther,
T. W., Danovaro, R., Foreman, C. M., Huisman, J., Hutchins, D. A., Jansson,
J. K., Karl, D. M., Koskella, B., Mark Welch, D. B., Martiny, J. B., Moran,
M. A., Orphan, V. J., Reay, D. S., Remais, J. V., Rich, V. I., Singh, B. K.,
Stein, L. Y., Stewart, F. J., Sullivan, M. B., van Oppen, M. J., Weaver,
S. C., Webb, E. A., and Webster, N. S.: Scientists' warning to humanity:
microorganisms and climate change, Nat. Rev. Microbiol., 17, 569–586,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-019-0222-5, 2019. a
Chanut, J., Barńier, B., Large, W., Debreu, L., Penduff, T., Molines, J. M.,
and Mathiot, P.: Mesoscale eddies in the Labrador Sea and their
contribution to convection and restratification, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 38, 1617–1643, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JPO3485.1, 2008. a
Chassignet, E. P. and Marshall, D. P.: Gulf Stream separation in numerical
ocean models, Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime, 177, 39–61,
https://doi.org/10.1029/177GM05,
Union, 2008. a
Chassignet, E. P. and Xu, X.: Impact of horizontal resolution (
Chassot, E., Bonhommeau, S., Dulvy, N. K., Mélin, F., Watson, R., Gascuel, D.,
and Le Pape, O.: Global marine primary production constrains fisheries
catches, Ecol. Lett., 13, 495–505,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01443.x,
2010. a
Couespel, D.: Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming: python scripts for model's output analysis and figure production, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5109751, last access: 21 July 2021.
Delworth, T. L. and Zeng, F.: Simulated impact of altered southern hemisphere
winds on the atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 35, L20708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035166, 2008. a
Delworth, T. L., Rosati, A., Anderson, W., Adcroft, A. J., Balaji, V., Benson,
R., Dixon, K., Griffies, S. M., Lee, H.-C., Pacanowski, R. C., Vecchi, G. A.,
Wittenberg, A. T., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R.: Simulated climate and climate
change in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model, J. Climate, 25, 2755–2781, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00316.1, 2012. a, b
Doney, S. C.: Oceanography: Plankton in a warmer world, Nature, 444,
695–696, https://doi.org/10.1038/444695a, 2006. a
Eden, C. and Greatbatch, R. J.: Towards a mesoscale eddy closure, Ocean
Model., 20, 223–239, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.09.002, 2008. a
Falkowski, P. G., Barber, R. T., and Smetacek, V.: Biogeochemical controls and
feedbacks on ocean primary production, Science, 281, 200–206,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.281.5374.200, 1998. a
Farneti, R. and Delworth, T. L.: The role of mesoscale eddies in the remote
oceanic response to altered southern hemisphere winds, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 40, 2348–2354, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JPO4480.1, 2010. a
Farneti, R., Delworth, T. L., Rosati, A. J., Griffies, S. M., and Zeng, F.: The
role of mesoscale eddies in the rectification of the Southern ocean
response to climate change, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 1539–1557,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JPO4353.1, 2010. a, b
Field, C. B., Behrenfeld, M. J., Randerson, J. T., and Falkowski, P. G.:
Primary production of the biosphere: Integrating terrestrial and oceanic
components, Science, 281, 237–240, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.281.5374.237, 1998. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Ferrari, R., and Hallberg, R.: Parameterization of mixed layer
eddies. Part I: Theory and diagnosis, J. Phys. Oceanogr.,
38, 1145–1165, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JPO3792.1, , 2008. a
Friedland, K. D., Stock, C., Drinkwater, K. F., Link, J. S., Leaf, R. T.,
Shank, B. V., Rose, J. M., Pilskaln, C. H., and Fogarty, M. J.: Pathways
between primary production and fisheries yields of large marine ecosystems,
PLoS ONE, 7, e28945, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0028945, 2012. a
Fu, W., Randerson, J. T., and Moore, J. K.: Climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (EP) regulated by increasing stratification and phytoplankton community structure in the CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 13, 5151–5170, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5151-2016, 2016. a, b
Gent, P. R. and McWilliams, J. C.: Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation
models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150–160,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a, b, c, d
Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Stouffer, R. J., Weaver, A. J., Driesschaert, E.,
Eby, M., Fichefet, T., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich,
I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A.,
Sokolov, A. P., and Thorpe, R. B.: A model intercomparison of changes in the
Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric
CO2 concentration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12703,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023209, 2005. a
Gula, J., Molemaker, M. J., and McWilliams, J. C.: Submesoscale dynamics of a
gulf stream frontal eddy in the south atlantic bight, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 46, 305–325, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-14-0258.1, 2016. a
Gutjahr, O., Putrasahan, D., Lohmann, K., Jungclaus, J. H., von Storch, J.-S., Brüggemann, N., Haak, H., and Stössel, A.: Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3241–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, 2019. a
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016. a
Henson, S. A., Beaulieu, C., and Lampitt, R.: Observing climate change trends
in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where, Glob. Change Biol.,
22, 1561–1571, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13152, 2016. a
Hirschi, J. J., Barnier, B., Böning, C., Biastoch, A., Blaker, A. T., Coward,
A., Danilov, S., Drijfhout, S., Getzlaff, K., Griffies, S. M., Hasumi, H.,
Hewitt, H., Iovino, D., Kawasaki, T., Kiss, A. E., Koldunov, N., Marzocchi,
A., Mecking, J. V., Moat, B., Molines, J., Myers, P. G., Penduff, T.,
Roberts, M., Treguier, A., Sein, D. V., Sidorenko, D., Small, J., Spence, P.,
Thompson, L., Weijer, W., and Xu, X.: The Atlantic meridional overturning
circulation in high resolution models, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2019JC015522, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015522, 2020. a, b, c
IPBES: Global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the
Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Services, IPBES secretariat/IPBES, edited by: Brondizio, E. S. Settele, J., Díaz, S., and Ngo, H. T., Bonn, Germany,
available at: https://ipbes.net/global-assessment (last access: 14 July 2021), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3831674, 2019. a, b
IPCC: IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing
climate, IPCC, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ (last access: 14 July 2021), in press, 2019. a, b
Jackson, L. C., Roberts, M. J., Hewitt, H. T., Iovino, D., Koenigk, T., Meccia,
V. L., Roberts, C. D., Ruprich-Robert, Y., and Wood, R. A.: Impact of ocean
resolution and mean state on the rate of AMOC weakening, Clim. Dynam.,
55, 1711–1732, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05345-9, 2020. a, b
Karleskind, P., Lévy, M., and Mémery, L.: Modifications of mode water
properties by sub-mesoscales in a bio-physical model of the Northeast
Atlantic, Ocean Model., 39, 47–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.12.003,
2011. a
Klocker, A.: Opening the window to the Southern Ocean: The role of jet
dynamics, Sci. Adv., 4, eaao4719, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aao4719, 2018. a
Krémeur, A. S., Lévy, M., Aumont, O., and Reverdin, G.: Impact of the
subtropical mode water biogeochemical properties on primary production in the
North Atlantic: New insights from an idealized model study, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C07019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC005161,
2009. a
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Lenton, A., Li, H., Lovenduski, N. S., Orr, J. C., Palmieri, J., Santana-Falcón, Y., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, C. A., Tagliabue, A., Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Toyama, K., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Yool, A., and Ziehn, T.: Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections, Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J., Hashioka, T., Hauck, J., Hirata, T., John, J., Le Quéré, C., Lima, I. D., Nakano, H., Seferian, R., Totterdell, I., Vichi, M., and Völker, C.: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models, Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015. a, b
Letscher, R. T., Primeau, F., and Moore, J. K.: Nutrient budgets in the
subtropical ocean gyres dominated by lateral transport, Nat. Geosci., 9,
815–819, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2812, 2016. a
Lewandowska, A. M., Boyce, D. G., Hofmann, M., Matthiessen, B., Sommer, U., and
Worm, B.: Effects of sea surface warming on marine plankton, Ecol.
Lett., 17, 614–623, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12265, 2014. a, b
Li, Q., Lee, S., and Griesel, A.: Eddy fluxes and jet-scale overturning
circulations in the Indo–Western pacific southern ocean, J.
Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 2943–2959, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0241.1,
2016. a
Lique, C. and Thomas, M. D.: Latitudinal shift of the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation source regions under a warming climate, Nat.
Clim. Change, 8, 1013–1020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0316-5, 2018. a
Lotze, H. K., Tittensor, D. P., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Eddy, T. D., Cheung,
W. W., Galbraith, E. D., Barange, M., Barrier, N., Bianchi, D., Blanchard,
J. L., Bopp, L., Büchner, M., Bulman, C. M., Carozza, D. A., Christensen,
V., Coll, M., Dunne, J. P., Fulton, E. A., Jennings, S., Jones, M. C.,
Mackinson, S., Maury, O., Niiranen, S., Oliveros-Ramos, R., Roy, T.,
Fernandes, J. A., Schewe, J., Shin, Y. J., Silva, T. A., Steenbeek, J.,
Stock, C. A., Verley, P., Volkholz, J., Walker, N. D., and Worm, B.: Global
ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines
with climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci.
USA, 116, 12907–12912,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116, 2019. a
Lozier, M. S.: Overturning in the north atlantic, Annu. Rev. Mar.
Sci., 4, 291–315, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120710-100740, 2012. a
Lozier, M. S., Dave, A. C., Palter, J. B., Gerber, L. M., and Barber, R. T.: On
the relationship between stratification and primary productivity in the
North Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18609,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049414, 2011. a
Lévy, M.: Nutrients in remote mode, Nature, 437, 628–631,
https://doi.org/10.1038/437628a, 2005. a, b
Lévy, M. and Martin, A. P.: The influence of mesoscale and submesoscale
heterogeneity on ocean biogeochemical reactions, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 27, 1139–1150, https://doi.org/10.1002/2012GB004518, 2013. a, b
Lévy, M., Estublier, A., and Madec, G.: Choice of an advection scheme for
biogeochemical models, Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 3725–3728,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL012947, 2001. a
Lévy, M., Klein, P., Tréguier, A. M., Iovino, D., Madec, G., Masson, S., and
Takahashi, K.: Modifications of gyre circulation by sub-mesoscale physics,
Ocean Model., 34, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.04.001, 2010. a, b, c, d
Lévy, M., Ferrari, R., Frank J Millero, G. P. J. E. D., Martin, A. P., and
Rivière, P.: Bringing physics to life at the submesoscale, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 39, L14602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052756,
2012a. a
Lévy, M., Iovino, D., Resplandy, L., Klein, P., Madec, G., Treguier, A.-M.,
Masson, S., and Takahashi, T.: Large-scale impacts of submesoscale dynamics
on phytoplankton: Local and remote effects, Ocean Model., 43–44, 77–93,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.12.003, 2012b. a, b, c
Lévy, M., Franks, P. J., and Smith, K. S.: The role of submesoscale currents
in structuring marine ecosystems, Nat. Commun., 9, 4758,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07059-3, 2018. a
Madec, G., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Bouttier, P.-A., Bricaud, C., Bruciaferri, D.,
Calvert, D., Chanut, J., Clementi, E., Coward, A., Delrosso, D., Ethé, C.,
Flavoni, S., Graham, T., Harle, J., Iovino, D., Lea, D., Lévy, C., Lovato,
T., Martin, N., Masson, S., Mocavero, S., Paul, J., Rousset, C., Storkey, D.,
Storto, A., and Vancoppenolle, M.: NEMO ocean engine, Notes du Pôle de
modélisation de l'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.1472492, 2017. a, b
Mahadevan, A.: The impact of submesoscale physics on primary productivity of
plankton, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 8, 161–184,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010814-015912, publisher: Annual Reviews, 2016. a
Mak, J., Marshall, D. P., Maddison, J. R., and Bachman, S. D.: Emergent eddy
saturation from an energy constrained eddy parameterisation, Ocean Model.,
112, 125–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.02.007,
2017. a, b, c, d
Mak, J., Maddison, J. R., Marshall, D. P., and Munday, D. R.: Implementation of
a geometrically informed and energetically constrained mesoscale eddy
parameterization in an ocean circulation model, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 48, 2363–2382, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-18-0017.1, 2018. a, b, c
Marshall, D. P., Maddison, J. R., and Berloff, P. S.: A framework for
parameterizing eddy potential vorticity fluxes, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 42, 539–557, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-11-048.1, 2012. a, b, c
McGillicuddy Jr., D. J.: Mechanisms of physical-biological-biogeochemical
interaction at the oceanic mesoscale, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 8,
125–159, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010814-015606, 2016. a
McKinley, G. A., Ritzer, A. L., and Lovenduski, N. S.: Mechanisms of northern North Atlantic biomass variability, Biogeosciences, 15, 6049–6066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6049-2018, 2018. a
McWilliams, J. C.: Submesoscale currents in the ocean, P. Roy.
Soc. A, 472, 20160117,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2016.0117, 2016. a
Meredith, M. P., Garabato, A. C. N., Hogg, A. M., and Farneti, R.: Sensitivity
of the overturning circulation in the southern ocean to decadal changes in
wind forcing, J. Climate, 25, 99–110, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4204.1,
2012. a, b
Moore, J. K., Fu, W., Primeau, F., Britten, G. L., Lindsay, K., Long, M.,
Doney, S. C., Mahowald, N., Hoffman, F., and Randerson, J. T.: Sustained
climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity, Science,
359, 113–1143, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao6379, 2018. a
Munday, D. R., Johnson, H. L., and Marshall, D. P.: Eddy saturation of
equilibrated circumpolar currents, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43,
507–532, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-095.1, 2013. a, b, c
Munday, D. R., Johnson, H. L., and Marshall, D. P.: Impacts and effects of
mesoscale ocean eddies on ocean carbon storage and atmospheric pCO2, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 28, 877–896, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004836, 2014. a
Olonscheck, D., Hofmann, M., Worm, B., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Decomposing the
effects of ocean warming on chlorophyll a concentrations into physically and
biologically driven contributions, Environ. Res. Lett., 8,
14043, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014043, 2013. a, b
Palter, J. B. and Lozier, M. S.: On the source of Gulf Stream nutrients,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 113, C06018,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004611, 2008. a
Palter, J. B., Lozier, M. S., and Barber, R. T.: The effect of advection on the
nutrient reservoir in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, Nature, 437,
687–692, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03969, 2005. a
Pauly, D. and Christensen, V.: Primary production required to sustain global
fisheries, Nature, 374, 255–257, https://doi.org/10.1038/374255a0, 1995. a
Polovina, J. J., Howell, E. A., and Abecassis, M.: Ocean's least productive
waters are expanding, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L03618,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031745, 2008. a
Resplandy, L., Lévy, M., and McGillicuddy Jr., D. J.: Effects of
Eddy‐Driven subduction on ocean biological carbon pump, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 33, 1071–1084, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006125, 2019. a
Roberts, M. J., Banks, H., Gedney, N., Gregory, J., Hill, R., Mullerworth, S.,
Pardaens, A., Rickard, G., Thorpe, R., Wood, R., Roberts, M. J., Banks, H.,
Gedney, N., Gregory, J., Hill, R., Mullerworth, S., Pardaens, A., Rickard,
G., Thorpe, R., and Wood, R.: Impact of an eddy-permitting ocean resolution
on control and climate change simulations with a global coupled GCM, J. Climate, 17, 3–20,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0003:IOAEOR>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a, b
Roberts, M. J., Jackson, L. C., Roberts, C. D., Meccia, V., Docquier, D.,
Koenigk, T., Ortega, P., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Bellucci, A., Coward, A.,
Drijfhout, S., Exarchou, E., Gutjahr, O., Hewitt, H., Iovino, D., Lohmann,
K., Putrasahan, D., Schiemann, R., Seddon, J., Terray, L., Xu, X., Zhang, Q.,
Chang, P., Yeager, S. G., Castruccio, F. S., Zhang, S., and Wu, L.:
Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to
Model Resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations and Implications
for Future Changes, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12,
e2019MS002014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002014, 2020. a, b, c
Sarmiento, J. L. and Gruber, N.: Ocean biogeochemical dynamics, Princeton
University Press, 2006. a
Spence, P., Saenko, O. A., Sijp, W., and England, M. H.: North atlantic climate
response to lake agassiz drainage at coarse and ocean eddy-permitting
resolutions, J. Climate, 26, 2651–2667,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00683.1, 2013. a, b
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S. C., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Schneider, B., and Segschneider, J.: Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis, Biogeosciences, 7, 979–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-979-2010, 2010. a, b, c
Stock, C. A., John, J. G., Rykaczewski, R. R., Asch, R. G., Cheung, W. W.,
Dunne, J. P., Friedland, K. D., Lam, V. W., Sarmiento, J. L., and Watson,
R. A.: Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114,
E1441–E1449, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610238114, 2017. a
Séférian, R., Berthet, S., Yool, A., Palmiéri, J., Bopp, L., Tagliabue, A.,
Kwiatkowski, L., Aumont, O., Christian, J., Dunne, J., Gehlen, M., Ilyina,
T., John, J. G., Li, H., Long, M. C., Luo, J. Y., Nakano, H., Romanou, A.,
Schwinger, J., Stock, C., Santana-Falcón, Y., Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J.,
Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Wu, T., Wu, F., and Yamamoto, A.: Tracking
improvement in simulated marine biogeochemistry between CMIP5 and CMIP6,
Current Climate Change Reports, 95–119,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0,
2020. a
Tagklis, F., Ito, T., and Bracco, A.: Modulation of the North Atlantic deoxygenation by the slowdown of the nutrient stream, Biogeosciences, 17, 231–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-231-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Tamarin, T., Maddison, J. R., Heifetz, E., and Marshall, D. P.: A geometric
interpretation of eddy reynolds stresses in barotropic ocean jets, J.
Phys. Oceanogr., 46, 2285–2307, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0139.1,
2016. a
Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C. J.,
Lehner, F., and Knutti, R.: Past warming trend constrains future warming in
CMIP6 models, Sci. Adv., 6, eaaz9549, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549,
2020. a, b
Uchida, T., Balwada, D., Abernathey, R., McKinley, G., Smith, S., and Lévy,
M.: The contribution of submesoscale over mesoscale eddy iron transport in
the open southern ocean, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11,
3934–3958, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001805, Ltd,
2019. a
Uchida, T., Balwada, D., Abernathey, R. P., McKinley, G. A., Smith, S. K., and
Lévy, M.: Vertical eddy iron fluxes support primary production in the open
Southern Ocean, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–8,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14955-0, 2020. a
Uchiyama, Y., Suzue, Y., and Yamazaki, H.: Eddy-driven nutrient transport and
associated upper-ocean primary production along the Kuroshio, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 5046–5062, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012847,
2017. a
van Westen, R. M. and Dijkstra, H. A.: Ocean eddies strongly affect global mean
sea-level projections, Sci. Adv., 7, eabf1674,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf1674, 2021. a, b
Volk, T. and Hoffert, M. I.: Ocean carbon pumps: Analysis of relative
strengths and efficiencies in ocean-driven atmospheric CO2 changes, The
Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric CO2: Natural Variations Archean to Present, 32, 99–110, https://doi.org/10.1029/GM032p0099, 1985. a
Weijer, W., Maltrud, M. E., Hecht, M. W., Dijkstra, H. A., and Kliphuis, M. A.:
Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet
melting in a strongly-eddying ocean model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39,
L09606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051611,
2012. a
Wernand, M. R., van der Woerd, H. J., and Gieskes, W. W. C.: Trends in ocean
colour and chlorophyll concentration from 1889 to 2000, worldwide, PLoS ONE,
8, e63766, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0063766, 2013. a
Whitt, D. B.: On the role of the gulf stream in the changing atlantic nutrient
circulation during the 21st century, in: Kuroshio current: Physical,
biogeochemical, and ecosystem dynamics, geophysical monograph 243, edited by:
Nagai, T., Saito, H., Suzuki, K., and Takahashi, M., 51–82, John Wiley
& Sons, Inc., 1st Edn., https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119428428.ch4, 2019. a, b, c, d
Whitt, D. B. and Jansen, M. F.: Slower nutrient stream suppresses Subarctic
Atlantic Ocean biological productivity in global warming, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 15504–15510,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2000851117, 2020. a, b, c
Williams, R. G., Roussenov, V., and Follows, M. J.: Nutrient streams and their
induction into the mixed layer, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, GB1016,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002586, 2006. a
Williams, R. G., McDonagh, E., Roussenov, V. M., Torres-Valdes, S., King, B.,
Sanders, R., and Hansell, D. A.: Nutrient streams in the North Atlantic:
Advective pathways of inorganic and dissolved organic nutrients, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 25, GB4008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GB003853, 2011.
a, b
Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., Delworth, T. L., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J.,
and Rosati, A.: Has coarse ocean resolution biased simulations of transient
climate sensitivity?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8522–8529,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061523, 2014. a, b
Yang, H., Lohmann, G., Krebs‐Kanzow, U., Ionita, M., Shi, X., Sidorenko, D.,
Gong, X., Chen, X., and Gowan, E. J.: Poleward shift of the major ocean gyres
detected in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085868,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085868, 2020. a
Short summary
An alarming consequence of climate change is the oceanic primary production decline projected by Earth system models. These coarse-resolution models parameterize oceanic eddies. Here, idealized simulations of global warming with increasing resolution show that the decline in primary production in the eddy-resolved simulations is half as large as in the eddy-parameterized simulations. This stems from the high sensitivity of the subsurface nutrient transport to model resolution.
An alarming consequence of climate change is the oceanic primary production decline projected by...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint