Articles | Volume 19, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 16 Dec 2022
| 16 Dec 2022
Hotspots and drivers of compound marine heatwaves and low net primary production extremes
Natacha Le Grix
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Jakob Zscheischler
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
Keith B. Rodgers
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea
Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
Ryohei Yamaguchi
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea
Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Jens Terhaar, Laurent Bopp, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Frölicher, Helene Hollitzer, Tatiana Ilyina, Lester Kwiatkowski, Paul Lerner, Hongmei Li, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, and Aaron Wienkers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5757, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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The ocean absorbs about 30% of CO2 emissions, but how much it will keep absorbing as CO2 levels rise and the climate warms is highly uncertain. Combining climate models with observations, we show models underestimate both the ocean CO2 uptake with increasing atmospheric CO2 and how strongly this uptake weakens with warming, and that the two are linked. Our tighter estimate reduces uncertainty in how much emitted CO2 stays in the atmosphere, and in the warming caused by future emissions.
Andreas Karpasitis, Manabu Abe, Isaline Bossert, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Colin Jones, Roland Séférian, Tomas Torsvik, Jeremy Walton, Klaus Wyser, Tokuta Yokohata, and George Zittis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5285, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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The tropical atmosphere plays a key role in driving rainfall and influencing weather around the world. In this study, we used idealized simulations to examine how tropical rainfall and atmospheric circulation change as the planet warms. We found that the main tropical rain belt shifts closer to the Equator. Although vertical air motion becomes weaker, rainfall becomes more intense. These changes could affect regional rainfall patterns and climate regimes in other parts of the world.
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel A. Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6941–6966, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026, 2026
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We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
Daniel Klotz, Peter Miersch, Thiago V. M. do Nascimento, Fabrizio Fenicia, Corinna Frank, Martin Gauch, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 5485–5504, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-5485-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-5485-2026, 2026
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Data availability is central to hydrological science. It is the basis for advancing our understanding of hydrological processes, building prediction models, and anticipatory water management. We present a data-driven daily runoff reconstruction product for natural streamflow. We name it EARLS: European aggregated reconstruction for large-sample studies. The reconstructions represent daily simulations of natural streamflow across Europe and cover the period from 1953 to 2020.
Lily-belle Sweet, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, and Jakob Zscheischler
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6687–6735, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6687-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6687-2026, 2026
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This study presents a method to identify climate drivers of an impact, such as agricultural yield failure, from high-resolution weather data. The approach systematically generates, selects and combines predictors that generalise across different environments. Tested on crop model simulations, the identified drivers are used to create parsimonious models that achieve high predictive performance over long time horizons, offering a more interpretable alternative to black-box models.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Patrick Maier, Friedrich A. Burger, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Urs Hofmann Elizondo, and Manon Berger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3065, 2026
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We simulate climate and carbon-cycle responses to a strong AMOC weakening under a 2 °C stabilization pathway. A collapse to 20 % of preindustrial strength cools global climate by 0.8 °C and winter climate in Northern Europe by up to 5 °C, enhances ocean heat uptake and sea-level rise, and alters land and ocean carbon storage. The cooling temporarily increases the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 2 °C.
Jonathan Wider and Jakob Zscheischler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2325, 2026
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unseen-awg, a novel approach for generating multivariate spatiotemporal weather data, operates by resampling a large dataset of historical weather forecasts. The method uses block sampling of days and a parameter-tuning strategy to improve the realism of the generated European weather. It holds great potential for assessing weather-related risks across sectors such as water, agriculture, or forestry that require simulating multiple variables and spatial dependencies across numerous locations.
Piers M. Forster, Tristram Walsh, Chris Smith, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie M. Andrew, Chris Atkinson, Richard A. Betts, Antonio Bombelli, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Helen E. Claxton, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Catia M. Domingues, Thomas Gasser, Catherine H. Gregory, Rachel M. Hoesly, Daniel Huppmann, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, Alexia Karwat, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Jean-François Lamarque, Aurélien Liné, Belén Martín-Míguez, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Pino Mussak, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steven J. Smith, Ghassan Taha, Caterina Tassone, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Marco Zecchetto, Junting Zhong, Xiao-Ye Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026
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We give our annual update of key climate indicators. Our work quantifies the human contribution to global warming and the pace of climate change. This represents a large effort by the international community akin to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Marina Lévy, Karina von Schuckmann, Mahé Butel, William W. L. Cheung, Joachim Claudet, Thomas L. Frölicher, Patrice Guillotreau, Peter Haugan, Janine Adams, Diva Amon, Tamatoa Bambridge, Cynthia Barzuna, Bruno Blanke, Lijing Cheng, Sanae Chiba, Jorge Cortés, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Stefan Gelcich, Jessica Gephart, Deborah Greaves, Audrey Hasson, Claire Jolly, Daoji Li, Yunne-Jai Shin, Aimée Slangen, Mere Takoko, Olivier Thébaud, Adrien Vincent, and Patrick Vincent
State Planet, 7-osr10, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-1-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-1-2026, 2026
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The Starfish Barometer provides an annual, science-based synthesis of global Ocean-related developments, structured around five interconnected dimensions: the Ocean state, human pressures, societal harms, protection efforts, and opportunities for humanity. It is released each year on World Ocean Day. This article presents the second edition of the Barometer, which shows a growing gap between increasing human pressures on the Ocean and the efforts being made to protect it and drive change.
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Maik Biling, Kirsten Thonicke, Werner von Bloh, Jakob Wessel, Sabine Undorf, Matthias Forkel, and Jakob Zscheischler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2952, 2026
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Wildfires are becoming more extreme, yet our state-of-the-art tools fail to capture the full risk. We simulate a large ensemble of wildfire simulations capturing a broader range of physically plausible extreme wildfire events beyond what observations alone can reveal. Extreme fire danger alone does not explain the worst impacts: ignitions, fuel and vegetation-fire feedback need to be incorporated. This modelling framework is transferable to other climate-impact sectors beyond wildfires.
Ni Li, Wim Thiery, Shorouq Zahra, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Koffi Worou, Murathan Kurfalı, Seppe Lampe, Paul Muñoz, Clare Flynn, Camila Trigoso, Joakim Nivre, Jakob Zscheischler, and Gabriele Messori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2609–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026, 2026
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Climate extremes threaten society and ecosystems, making impact understanding critical. Wikimpacts 1.0 provides an automated pipeline processing Wikipedia texts with underexploited information on climate impacts, yielding comprehensive socio-economic impact data for 2726 climate events from 1034–2024. It offers broader storm-related impacts and finer spatial resolution than established databases, showcasing natural language processing's potential to advance climate impact data.
Hendrik Grosselindemann, Friedrich A. Burger, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 23, 3299–3321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3299-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3299-2026, 2026
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We assess the long-term carbon cycle, climate and ocean acidification response of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) using an emission-driven Earth system model across warming stabilization scenarios. OAE lowers atmospheric CO2 and produces a scenario-independent linear cooling. Gross carbon capture efficiency remains high, while net efficiencies decline over time due to carbon-cycle feedbacks. Ocean acidification mitigation by OAE is dominated by CO2 drawdown on long timescales.
Friedrich A. Burger, Urs Hofmann Elizondo, Hendrik Grosselindemann, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 23, 3279–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3279-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3279-2026, 2026
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Ocean alkalinity enhancement is viewed as a promising option for carbon dioxide removal. When alkalinity is added in the open ocean through mineral powders, carbon uptake from the atmosphere is decreased when mineral particles sink before fully dissolving. Here we prescribe vertical alkalinity release profiles to an Earth system model. We show that carbon uptake may initially decrease by more than 75% when grain size doubles and that full uptake is delayed by centuries and spatially dispersed.
Didier Swingedouw, Laura Jackson, Aixue Hu, Anastasia Romanou, Nicole C. Laureanti, Wilbert Weijer, Sina Loriani, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Lucas Almeida, Alessio Bellucci, Reyk Börner, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Donovan P. Dennis, Marion Devilliers, Sybren Drijfhout, Jonathan Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Guillaume Gastineau, Heiko Goelzer, Chuncheng Guo, Urs Hofmann, Anna Höse, Colin Jones, Torben Koenigk, Ann Kristin Klose, Valerio Lembo, Jose Licon-Salaiz, Ken Mankoff, Virna Meccia, Irina Melnikova, Oliver Mehling, Laurie Menviel, Juliette Mignot, Jon I. Robson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Robin Smith, Yuchen Sun, Irene Trombini, Matteo Willeit, Richard Wood, Fanghua Wu, Lin Zhaohui, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, 2026
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This study presents a plan for climate model experiments to better understand how changes in freshwater in the North Atlantic affect major ocean currents. We designed coordinated simulations to test their response to warming, added freshwater, and possible recovery after weakening. Comparing results across models and past climate evidence helps improve confidence in projections and assess risks of large ocean circulation changes.
Hidetaka Kobayashi, Tokuta Yokohata, Akitomo Yamamoto, Tomohiro Hajima, Hiroaki Tatebe, Akira Oka, and Keith B. Rodgers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-120, 2026
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Using long-term MIROC-ES2L simulations under extended SSP scenarios to 2500, we show that ocean–atmosphere pCO2 disequilibrium exhibits strong scenario dependence. Low emissions lead to near equilibrium by 2100, whereas high emissions drive expanding oceanic CO2 supersaturation and declining buffering capacity. Marine ecosystem stress persists for centuries, reflecting the ocean’s long memory and limited reversibility.
Timothée Bourgeois, Giang T. Tran, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Schwinger, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Thorsten Blenckner, Olivier Torres, Jean Negrel, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 22, 5435–5462, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025, 2025
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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025
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Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU based on historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep- and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14 % and suggests that previous constraints have underestimated future warming.
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025
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A new 10-member ensemble simulation with the state-of-the-art Earth system model was employed to study the long-term climate response to sustained greenhouse warming through to the year 2500. The findings show that the projected changes in the forced mean state and internal variability during 2101–2500 differ substantially from the 21st-century projections, emphasizing the importance of multi-century perspectives for understanding future climate change and informing effective mitigation strategies.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2591–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, 2025
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Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events, and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
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Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in a temperature overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may be key in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
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The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
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We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Grey Nearing, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3665–3673, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3665-2024, 2024
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The evaluation of model performance is essential for hydrological modeling. Using performance criteria requires a deep understanding of their properties. We focus on a counterintuitive aspect of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and show that if we divide the data into multiple parts, the overall performance can be higher than all the evaluations of the subsets. Although this follows from the definition of the NSE, the resulting behavior can have unintended consequences in practice.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
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Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
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Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Anne L. Morée, Tayler M. Clarke, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 20, 2425–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2425-2023, 2023
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Ocean temperature and oxygen shape marine habitats together with species’ characteristics. We calculated the impacts of projected 21st-century warming and oxygen loss on the contemporary habitat volume of 47 marine species and described the drivers of these impacts. Most species lose less than 5 % of their habitat at 2 °C of global warming, but some species incur losses 2–3 times greater than that. We also calculate which species may be most vulnerable to climate change and why this is the case.
Shijie Jiang, Emanuele Bevacqua, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6339–6359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022, 2022
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Using a novel explainable machine learning approach, we investigated the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and day length to different peak discharges, thereby uncovering three primary flooding mechanisms widespread in European catchments. The results indicate that flooding mechanisms have changed in numerous catchments over the past 70 years. The study highlights the potential of artificial intelligence in revealing complex changes in extreme events related to climate change.
Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4431–4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022, 2022
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Estimates of the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon vary across various approaches. We show that the global ocean carbon sink can be estimated by three parameters, two of which approximate the ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and one of which approximates the chemical capacity of the ocean to take up carbon. With observations of these parameters, we estimate that the global ocean carbon sink is 10 % larger than previously assumed, and we cut uncertainties in half.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
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River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
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Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
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A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
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Short summary
Compound events threaten marine ecosystems. Here, we investigate the potentially harmful combination of marine heatwaves with low phytoplankton productivity. Using satellite-based observations, we show that these compound events are frequent in the low latitudes. We then investigate the drivers of these compound events using Earth system models. The models share similar drivers in the low latitudes but disagree in the high latitudes due to divergent factors limiting phytoplankton production.
Compound events threaten marine ecosystems. Here, we investigate the potentially harmful...
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