Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1739-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1739-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
20 Apr 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 20 Apr 2017
Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems
US Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Science Center, 600 Fourth
St. South, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701, USA
David G. Zawada
US Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Science Center, 600 Fourth
St. South, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701, USA
Nathan A. Smiley
US Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Science Center, 600 Fourth
St. South, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701, USA
Ginger Tiling-Range
Cherokee Nation Technologies contracted to the US Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Science Center, 600 Fourth St. South, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701, USA
Related authors
Kimberly K. Yates, Zachery Fehr, Selena Johnson, and David Zawada
Ocean Sci., 20, 661–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global understanding of storm-driven sediment transport along coral reefs and its impact on species and habitats is limited. Measurement of seafloor elevation and volume change due to a category 4 hurricane showed rapid burial of coral reef habitats and migration of large seafloor features due to the storm. Post-storm erosion rates were 2 orders of magnitude greater than historical rates, indicating areas of seafloor instability that could be less suitable for restoration of benthic species.
Christopher S. Moore, Robert H. Byrne, and Kimberly K. Yates
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1493, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents time series measurements of pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, and total alkalinity for organic rich estuarine water. The efficacy of sample preservation is examined by comparing results obtained with and without additions of the HgCl2. Our results show that addition of HgCl2 affects titration alkalinity and subsequently pH. Accurate analyses can be achieved using improvements in sample preservation techniques for carbonate system measurements in organic-rich estuarine waters.
Nancy G. Prouty, Kimberly K. Yates, Nathan Smiley, Chris Gallagher, Olivia Cheriton, and Curt D. Storlazzi
Biogeosciences, 15, 2467–2480, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2467-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2467-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs provide critical shoreline protection and important services, such as marine habitat, tourism, fishing, and recreation. However, coral reefs are being threatened by global climate change. If we are to understand how reefs will response to climate change, we must also understand how local conditions may impact the reefs. Our study offers a first glimpse into how human inputs of nutrients might add an additional stressor to reef health.
K. K. Yates, C. S. Rogers, J. J. Herlan, G. R. Brooks, N. A. Smiley, and R. A. Larson
Biogeosciences, 11, 4321–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4321-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4321-2014, 2014
Kimberly K. Yates, Zachery Fehr, Selena Johnson, and David Zawada
Ocean Sci., 20, 661–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global understanding of storm-driven sediment transport along coral reefs and its impact on species and habitats is limited. Measurement of seafloor elevation and volume change due to a category 4 hurricane showed rapid burial of coral reef habitats and migration of large seafloor features due to the storm. Post-storm erosion rates were 2 orders of magnitude greater than historical rates, indicating areas of seafloor instability that could be less suitable for restoration of benthic species.
Christopher S. Moore, Robert H. Byrne, and Kimberly K. Yates
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1493, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents time series measurements of pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, and total alkalinity for organic rich estuarine water. The efficacy of sample preservation is examined by comparing results obtained with and without additions of the HgCl2. Our results show that addition of HgCl2 affects titration alkalinity and subsequently pH. Accurate analyses can be achieved using improvements in sample preservation techniques for carbonate system measurements in organic-rich estuarine waters.
Nancy G. Prouty, Kimberly K. Yates, Nathan Smiley, Chris Gallagher, Olivia Cheriton, and Curt D. Storlazzi
Biogeosciences, 15, 2467–2480, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2467-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2467-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs provide critical shoreline protection and important services, such as marine habitat, tourism, fishing, and recreation. However, coral reefs are being threatened by global climate change. If we are to understand how reefs will response to climate change, we must also understand how local conditions may impact the reefs. Our study offers a first glimpse into how human inputs of nutrients might add an additional stressor to reef health.
K. K. Yates, C. S. Rogers, J. J. Herlan, G. R. Brooks, N. A. Smiley, and R. A. Larson
Biogeosciences, 11, 4321–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4321-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4321-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion
The biological and preformed carbon pumps in perpetually slower and warmer oceans
The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5
Mapping the future afforestation distribution of China constrained by a national afforestation plan and climate change
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
Variations of polyphenols and carbohydrates of Emiliania huxleyi grown under simulated ocean acidification conditions
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the increase in ocean acidity extremes in the northeastern Pacific
Ocean alkalinity enhancement approaches and the predictability of runaway precipitation processes – Results of an experimental study to determine critical alkalinity ranges for safe and sustainable application scenarios
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Alkalinity biases in CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for simulated CO2 drawdown via artificial alkalinity enhancement
Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations
Acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient and biomass declines in a warming Mediterranean Sea
Ocean alkalinity enhancement – avoiding runaway CaCO3 precipitation during quick and hydrated lime dissolution
Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models
Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data
Contrasting responses of phytoplankton productivity between coastal and offshore surface waters in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to short-term seawater acidification
Modeling interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharges in the Kapuas River delta
The application of dendrometers to alpine dwarf shrubs – a case study to investigate stem growth responses to environmental conditions
Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
Evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of blue intensity on multiple conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand
Anthropogenic CO2-mediated freshwater acidification limits survival, calcification, metabolism, and behaviour in stress-tolerant freshwater crustaceans
Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes
On the influence of erect shrubs on the irradiance profile in snow
Tolerance of tropical marine microphytobenthos exposed to elevated irradiance and temperature
Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe
James A. King, James Weber, Peter Lawrence, Stephanie Roe, Abigail L. S. Swann, and Maria Val Martin
Biogeosciences, 21, 3883–3902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tackling climate change by adding, restoring, or enhancing forests is gaining global support. However, it is important to investigate the broader implications of this. We used a computer model of the Earth to investigate a future where tree cover expanded as much as possible. We found that some tropical areas were cooler because of trees pumping water into the atmosphere, but this also led to soil and rivers drying. This is important because it might be harder to maintain forests as a result.
Benoît Pasquier, Mark Holzer, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Biogeosciences, 21, 3373–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How do perpetually slower and warmer oceans sequester carbon? Compared to the preindustrial state, we find that biological productivity declines despite warming-stimulated growth because of a lower nutrient supply from depth. This throttles the biological carbon pump, which still sequesters more carbon because it takes longer to return to the surface. The deep ocean is isolated from the surface, allowing more carbon from the atmosphere to pass through the ocean without contributing to biology.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation regions based on future high-resolution climate data and climate–vegetation models. After considering the national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation region was mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study provides a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation.
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
Biogeosciences, 21, 2509–2527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2509-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices for the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 21, 2355–2365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesize that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We find that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was also maintained under elevated levels of CO2.
Milagros Rico, Paula Santiago-Díaz, Guillermo Samperio-Ramos, Melchor González-Dávila, and Juana Magdalena Santana-Casiano
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2024-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2024-1, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Organic matter exuded by microorganisms under ocean acidification conditions (OA) forms complexes that increase the residence time of the reduced form of trace metals such as iron, an essential micronutrient. Global environmental change influences the metabolic functions and composition of microalgae, with implications for higher trophic levels and biodiversity loss. The composition of cells and exudates under OA is of crucial interest for understanding the consequences of future scenarios.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2611, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestation potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study described uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow for the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Charly A. Moras, Lennart T. Bach, Tyler Cyronak, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai G. Schulz
Biogeosciences, 19, 3537–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents the first laboratory results of quick and hydrated lime dissolution in natural seawater. These two minerals are of great interest for ocean alkalinity enhancement, a strategy aiming to decrease atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Following the dissolution of these minerals, we identified several hurdles and presented ways to avoid them or completely negate them. Finally, we proceeded to various simulations in today’s oceans to implement the strategy at its highest potential.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil David Hartstein, Aazani Mujahid, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 3131–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Deep coastal inlets are important sites for regulating land-based organic pollution before it enters coastal oceans. This study focused on how large climate forces, rainfall, and river flow impact organic loading and oxygen conditions in a coastal inlet in Tasmania. Increases in rainfall were linked to higher organic loading and lower oxygen in basin waters. Finally we observed a significant correlation between the Southern Annular Mode and oxygen concentrations in the system's basin waters.
Guang Gao, Tifeng Wang, Jiazhen Sun, Xin Zhao, Lifang Wang, Xianghui Guo, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 19, 2795–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
After conducting large-scale deck-incubation experiments, we found that seawater acidification (SA) increased primary production (PP) in coastal waters but reduced it in pelagic zones, which is mainly regulated by local pH, light intensity, salinity, and community structure. In future oceans, SA combined with decreased upward transports of nutrients may synergistically reduce PP in pelagic zones.
Joko Sampurno, Valentin Vallaeys, Randy Ardianto, and Emmanuel Hanert
Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first assessment to evaluate the interactions between river discharges, tides, and storm surges and how they can drive compound flooding in the Kapuas River delta. We successfully created a realistic hydrodynamic model whose domain covers the land–sea continuum using a wetting–drying algorithm in a data-scarce environment. We then proposed a new method to delineate compound flooding hazard zones along the river channels based on the maximum water level profiles.
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Alex R. Quijada-Rodriguez, Pou-Long Kuan, Po-Hsuan Sung, Mao-Ting Hsu, Garett J. P. Allen, Pung Pung Hwang, Yung-Che Tseng, and Dirk Weihrauch
Biogeosciences, 18, 6287–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic CO2 is chronically acidifying aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to determine the impact of future freshwater acidification on the physiology and behaviour of an important aquaculture crustacean, Chinese mitten crabs. We report that elevated freshwater CO2 levels lead to impairment of calcification, locomotor behaviour, and survival and reduced metabolism in this species. Results suggest that present-day calcifying invertebrates could be heavily affected by freshwater acidification.
Junrong Zha and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 18, 6245–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study incorporated moss into an extant biogeochemistry model to simulate the role of moss in carbon dynamics in the Arctic. The interactions between higher plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients are considered in our study. We found that, compared with the previous model without moss, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last century and this century.
Maria Belke-Brea, Florent Domine, Ghislain Picard, Mathieu Barrere, and Laurent Arnaud
Biogeosciences, 18, 5851–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Expanding shrubs in the Arctic change snowpacks into a mix of snow, impurities and buried branches. Snow is a translucent medium into which light penetrates and gets partly absorbed by branches or impurities. Measurements of light attenuation in snow in Northern Quebec, Canada, showed (1) black-carbon-dominated light attenuation in snowpacks without shrubs and (2) buried branches influence radiation attenuation in snow locally, leading to melting and pockets of large crystals close to branches.
Sazlina Salleh and Andrew McMinn
Biogeosciences, 18, 5313–5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The benthic diatom communities in Tanjung Rhu, Malaysia, were regularly exposed to high light and temperature variability during the tidal cycle, resulting in low photosynthetic efficiency. We examined the impact of high temperatures on diatoms' photosynthetic capacities, and temperatures beyond 50 °C caused severe photoinhibition. At the same time, those diatoms exposed to temperatures of 40 °C did not show any sign of photoinhibition.
Cornelius Senf and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 18, 5223–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018. We show that this drought has increased forest disturbances across Europe, especially central and eastern Europe. Disturbance levels observed 2018–2020 were the highest on record for 30 years. Increased forest disturbances were correlated with low moisture and high atmospheric water demand. The unprecedented impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbances demonstrate an urgent need to adapt Europe’s forests to a hotter and drier future.
Cited articles
Alvarez-Filip, L., Dulvy, N. K., Gill, J. A., Cote, I. M., and Watkinson, A. R.: Flattening of Caribbean coral reefs: Region-wide declines in architectural complexity, P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci., 276, 3019–3025, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0339, 2009.
Anders, F. J. and M. R. Byrnes.: Accuracy of shoreline change rates as determined from maps and aerial photographs, Shore and Beach, January, 17–26, 1991.
Aronson, R. B., Macintyre, I. G., Precht, W. F., Murdoch, T. J. T., and Wapnick, C. M.: The expanding scale of species turnover events on coral reefs in Belize, Ecol. Monogr., 72, 233–249, 2002.
Battista, T. A. and Christensen, J.: Benthic habitat mapping of main Hawaiian Islands, NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Biogeography Branch, Silver Spring, MD, http://products.coastalscience.noaa.gov/collections/benthic/e97hawaii/data2007.aspx (last acces: July 2015), 2007.
Brock, J. C., Wright, C. W., Nayeghandi, A., Clayton, T., Hansen, M., Longnecker, J., Gesch, D., and Crane, M.: Initial results from a test of the NASA EAARL Lidar in the Tampa Bay Region, Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies Transactions, 52, http://archives.datapages.com/data/gcags/data/052/052001/pdfs/0089.pdf (last acces: July 2015), 2002.
Brock, J. C., Wright, C. W., Patterson, M., Nayegandhi, A., Patterson, J., Harris, M. S., and Mosher, L.: EAARL submarine topography—Biscayne National Park, US Geological Survey, USGS Open-File Report 2006-1118, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1118/ (last access: 22 September 2016), 2006a.
Brock, J. C., Yates, K. K., Halley, R. B., Kuffner, I. B., Wayne Wright, C., and Hatcher, B. G.: Northern Florida Reef Tract benthic metabolism scaled by remote sensing, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 312, 123–139, 2006b.
Brock, J. C., Wright, C. W., Nayegandhi, A., Patterson, M., Travers, L. J., and Wilson, I.: EAARL submarine topography – Northern Florida Keys Reef Tract, US Geological Survey, USGS Open-File Report 2007-1432, http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20071432 (last access: 22 September 2016), 2007.
Bruno, J. F. and Selig, E. R.: Regional decline of coral cover in the Indo-Pacific: Timing, extent, and subregional comparisons, PLoS One, 2, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000711, 2007.
Buddemeier, R. W. and Smith, S. V.: Coral-reef growth in an era of rapidly rising sea-level - predictions and suggestions for long-term research, Coral Reefs, 7, 51–56, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00301982, 1988.
Burke, L., Reytar, K., Spalding, M., and Perry, A.: Reefs at risk revisited, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, 130 pp., 2011.
Byrnes, M. R., Baker, J. L., and Li, F.: Quantifying potential measurement errors and uncertainties associated with bathymetric change analysis, Vicksburg, MS, ERDC/CHL CHETN-IV-50, 17 pp., 2002.
Byrnes, M. R., Rosati, J. D., Griffee, S. F., and Berlinghoff, J. L.: Historical sediment transport pathways and quantities for determining an operational sediment budget: Mississippi Sound Barrier Islands, J. Coast. Res., 63, 166–183, https://doi.org/10.2112/si63-014.1, 2013.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., (UK), W. T. P., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea level change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, 1137–1216, 2013.
Crane, M., Clayton, T., Raabe, E., Stoker, J., Handley, L., Bawden, G., Morgan, K., and Queija, V.: Report of the US Geological Survey Lidar Workshop sponsored by the Land Remote Sensing Proram and held in St. Peterburg, FL, November 2002, US Geological Survey Open-file Report 2004-1456, 72 pp., http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1456/ (last acces: 9 February 2017), 2004.
Decarlo, T. M., Cohen, A. L., Barkley, H. C., Cobban, Q., Young, C., Shamberger, K. E., Brainard, R. E., and Golbuu, Y.: Coral macrobioerosion is accelerated by ocean acidification and nutrients, Geology, 43, 7–10, https://doi.org/10.1130/G36147.1, 2015.
Dewhurst, W. T.: NADCON: The application of minimum-curvature-derived surfaces in the transformation of positional data from the North American Datum of 1927 to the North American Datum of 1983, NOAA Technical Memorandum, NGS-50, 32 pp., 1990.
Enochs, I. C., Manzello, D. P., Carton, R. D., Graham, D. M., Ruzicka, R., and Collela, M. A.: Ocean acidification enhances the bioerosion of a common coral reef sponge: Implications for the persistence of the Florida Reef Tract, Bull. Mar. Sci., 91, 271–290, https://doi.org/10.5343/bums.2014.1045, 2015.
Eyre, B. D., Andersson, A. J., and Cyronak, T.: Benthic coral reef calcium carbonate dissolution in an acidifying ocean, Nature Climate Change, 4, 969–976, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2380, 2014.
Ferrario, F., Beck, M. W., Storlazzi, C. D., Micheli, F., Shepard, C. C., and Airoldi, L.: The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation, Nat. Commun., 5, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4794, 2014.
Fletcher, C., Rooney, J., Barbee, M., Lim, S. C., and Richmond, B.: Mapping shoreline change using digital orthophotogrammetry on Maui, Hawaii, J. Coast. Res., 38, 106–124, 2003.
Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission: The Unified Florida Reef Tract map, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, http://ocean.floridamarine.org/IntegratedReefMap/UnifiedReefTract.htm (last access: 22 September 2016), 2015.
Fredericks, X., Kranenburg, C. J., and Nagle, D. B.: EAARL-B submerged topography – Saint Croix, US Virgin Islands, 2014, US Geological Survey, USGS Data Release, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/data-release/doi-F73T9F86/ (last access: 22 September 2016), 2015a.
Fredericks, X., Kranenburg, C. J., and Nagle, D. B.: EAARL-B submerged topography – Saint Thomas, US Virgin Islands, 2014, US Geological Survey, USGS Data Release, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/data-release/doi-F7G15XXG/ (last access: 22 September 2016), 2015b.
Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Golly, A., Mengel, M., Lebek, K., Donner, S. D., and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.: Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs, Nature Climate Change, 3, 165–170, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1674, 2013.
Garcia, S. M. and Moreno, I. d. L.: Global overview of marine fisheries, in: Responsible Fisheries in the Marine Ecosystem, edited by: Sinclair, M., and Valdimarsson, G., Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI), 448, 1–24, 2003.
Gardner, T. A., Cote, I. M., Gill, J. A., Grant, A., and Watkinson, A. R.: Long-term region-wide declines in Caribbean corals, Science, 301, 958–960, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1086050, 2003.
Glynn, P. W.: Widespread coral mortality and the 1982–83 El Niño warming event, Environ. Conserv., 11, 133–146, 1984.
Greenstein, B. J., Curran, H. A., and Pandolfi, J. M.: Shifting ecological baselines and the demise of Acropora cervicornis in the western North Atlantic and Caribbean Province: A Pleistocene perspective, Coral Reefs, 17, 249–261, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003380050125, 1998.
Hamylton, S. M., Leon, J. X., Saunders, M. I., and Woodroffe, C. D.: Simulating reef response to sea-level rise at Lizard Island: A geospatial approach, Geomorphology, 222, 151–161, 2014.
Harney, J. N. and Fletcher III, C. H.: A budget of carbonate framework and sediment production, Kailua Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, J. Sed. Res., 73, 856–868, 2003.
Hodgson, M. E. and Bresnahan, P.: Accuracy of airborne Lidar-derived elevation: empirical assessment and error budget, Photogramm. Eng. Rem. S., 70, 331–339, 2004.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P. J., Hooten, A. J., Steneck, R. S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, C. D., Sale, P. F., Edwards, A. J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C. M., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R. H., Dubi, A., and Hatziolos, M. E.: Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification, Science, 318, 1737–1742, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152509, 2007.
Hopley, D.: Coral reefs in a period of global sea level rise, in: Recent Advances in Marine Science and Technology 1992, edited by: Saxena, N. K., PACON, Honolulu, 453-462, 1992.
Hopley, D. and Kinsey, D. W.: The effects of rapid short term sea level rise on the Great Barrier Reef, in: Greenhouse Planning for Climate Change, edited by: Pearman, G. I., Brill, Leiden, 189–201, 1988.
Hubbard, D. K.: Sedimentation as a control of reef development: St. Croix, U.S.V.I., Coral Reefs, 5, 117–125, 1986.
Hubbard, D. K.: Hurricane-induced sediment transport in open-shelf tropical systems – an example from St. Croix, US Virgin Islands, J. Sediment. Petrol., 62, 946–960, 1992.
Hubbard, D. K.: Reefs as dynamic systems, in: Life and Death of Coral Reefs, edited by: Birkeland, C., Chapman & Hall, New York, 43–67, 1997.
Hubbard, D. K., Sadd, J. L., and Roberts, H. H.: The role of physcial processes in controlling sediment transport patterns on the insular shelf of St. Croix, US Virgin Islands, Proceedings of the Fourth International Coral Reef Symposium, Manila, 1, 399–404, 1981.
Hubbard, D. K., Miller, A. I., and Scaturo, D.: Production and cycling of calcium carbonate ina shelf-edge reef system (St. Croix, US Virgin Islands): applications to the nature of reef systems in the fossil record, J. Sediment Petrol., 60, 335–360, 1990.
Jackson, J., Donovan, M., Cramer, K., and Lam, V. (Eds.): Status and trends of Caribbean coral reefs: 1970–2012, Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/caribbean_coral_reefs_status_report_1970_2012.pdf (last access: 22 September 2016), 306 pp., 2014.
Kench, P. S. and Mclean, R. F.: Hydrodynamics and sediment flux of HOA in an Indian Ocean atoll, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 29, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1072, 2004.
Kench, P. S., Owen, S. D., and Ford, M. R.: Evidence for coral island formation during rising sea level in the central Pacific Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 820–827, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059000, 2014.
Kench, P., Thompson, D., Ford, M. R., Ogawa, H., and McLean, R. F.: Coral islands defy sea-level rise over the past centry: records from a central Pacific atoll, Geology, 43, 515–518, https://doi.org/10.1130/G36555.1, 2015.
Kendall, M.: Benthic Habitat Maps of the US Virgin Islands-St. Thomas and St. John prepared by visual interpretation from remote sensing imagery collected by NOAA, 1999, https://data.noaa.gov/dataset/ (last acces: July 2015), 2001a.
Kendall, M.: Benthic Habitat Maps of the US Virgin Islands-St. Croix prepared by visual interpretation from remote sensing imagery collected by NOAA, 1999, http://catalog.data.gov/dataset/ (last acces: July 2015), 2001b.
Kennedy, Emma V., Perry, Chris T., Halloran, Paul R., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Schönberg, Christine H. L., Wisshak, M., Form, Armin U., Carricart-Ganivet, Juan P., Fine, M., Eakin, C. M., and Mumby, Peter J.: Avoiding coral reef functional collapse requires local and global action, Curr. Biol., 23, 912–918, 2013.
Kiessling, W. and Simpson, C.: On the potential for ocean acidification to be a general cause of ancient reef crises, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 56–67, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02204.x, 2011.
Langdon, C. and Atkinson, M. J.: Effect of elevated pCO2 on photosynthesis and calcification of corals and interactions with seasonal change in temperature/irradiance and nutrient enrichment, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 110, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002576, 2005.
Leon, J. X. and Woodroffe, C. D.: Morphological characterisation of reef types in Torres Strait and an assessment of their carbonate productions, Mar. Geol., 338, 64–75, 2013.
Leon, J. X., Phinn, S. R., Hamylton, S., and Saunders, M. I.: Filling the “white ribbon” – a multisource seamless digital elevation model for Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef, Int. J. Remote Sens., 34, 6337–6354, 2013.
Lidz, B. H.: Bedrock beneath reefs: The importance of geology in understanding biological decline in a modern ecosystem, US Geological Survey, USGS Open File Report 00-046, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2000/of00-046/ (last access: 22 September 2016), 2000.
Lidz, B. H., Robbin, D. M., and Shinn, E. A.: Holocene carbonate sedimentary petrology and facies accumulation, Looe Key National Marine Sanctuary, Florida, Bull. Mar. Sci., 36, 672–700, 1985.
Lidz, B. H., Reich, C. D., and Shinn, E. A.: Systematic mapping of bedrock and habitats along the Florida Reef Tract – Central Key Largo to Halfmoon Shoal (Gulf of Mexico), US Geological Survey, USGS Professional Paper 1751, http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/2007/1751/ (last access: 22 September 2016), 2007.
Lidz, B. H., Shinn, E. A., Hudson, J. H., Multer, H. G., Halley, R. B., and Robbin, D. M.: Controls on Late Quaternary Coral Reefs of the Florida Keys, in Coral Reefs of the USA, edited by: Riegl, B. M. and Dodge, R. E., Springer, 9–74, http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4020-6847-8_2, 2008.
Lowe, R. J., Falter, J. L., Bandet, M. D., Pawlak, G., Atkinson, M. J., Monismith, S. G., and Koseff, J. R.: Spectral wave dissipation over a barrier reef, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 110, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002711, 2005.
Lukas, M.: Cartographic reconstruction of historical environmental change, Cartographic Perspectives, 78, 5–24, https://doi.org/10.14714/CP78.1218, 2014.
Madin, J. S. and Madin, E. M. P.: The full extent of the global coral reef crisis, Conserv. Biol., 29, 1724–1726, https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12564, 2015.
Manzello, D. P., Enochs, I. C., Melo, N., Gledhill, D. K., and Johns, E. M.: Ocean acidification refugia of the Florida Reef Tract, PLoS One, 7, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0041715, 2012.
McLean, R. and Kench, P.: Destruction or persistence of coral atoll islands in the face of the 20th and 21st century sea-level rise?, Climatic Change, 6, 445–463, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.350, 2015.
Morgan, K. M. and Kench, P. S.: A detrital sediment budget of a Maldivian reef platform, Geomorphology, 222, 122–131, 2014.
Morton, R. A., Miller, T. L., and Moore, L. J.: National assessment of shoreline change: Part 1: Historical shoreline changes and associated coastal land loss along the US Gulf of Mexico: US, US Geological Survey Open-file Report 2004-1043, 45 pp., 2004.
Moses, C. S., Andrefouet, S., Kranenburg, C. J., and Muller-Karger, F. E.: Regional estimates of reef carbonate dynamics and productivity using Landsat 7 ETM+, and potential impacts from ocean acidification, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 380, 103–115, 2009.
Muehllehner, N., Langdon, C., Venti, A., and Kadko, D.: Dynamics of carbonate chemistry, production and calcification of the Florida Reef Tract (2009–2010): Evidence for seasonal dissolution, Global Biochem. Cy., 30, 661–688, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005327, 2016.
Mumby, P. J.: Herbivory versus corallivory: are parrotfish good or bad for Caribbean coral reefs?, Coral Reefs, 28, 683–690, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-009-0501-0, 2009.
Neumann A. C. and Macintyre, I.: Reef response to sea level rise: keep-up, catch-up, or give-up, Fifth International Coral Reef Congress, Tahiti, 3, 105–118, 1985.
NOAA National Ocean Service: Estimation of Vertical Uncertainties in VDatum, NOAA, http://vdatum.noaa.gov/docs/est_uncertainties.html, last access: 22 September 2016.
NOAA Office of Coast Survey, Hydrographic Survey Database Query: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/form?t=103118&s=1&d=1&d=2, last access: 22 September 2016.
Ogston, A. S., Storlazzi, C. D., Field, M. E., and Presto, M. K.: Sediment resuspension and transport patters on a fringing reef flact, Molakai, Hawaii, Coral Reefs, 23, 559–569, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-004-0415-9, 2004.
Pandolfi, J. M., Bradbury, R. H., Sala, E., Hughes, T. P., Bjorndal, K. A., Cooke, R. G., McArdle, D., McClenachan, L., Newman, M. J. H., Paredes, G., Warner, R. R., and Jackson, J. B. C.: Global trajectories of the long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems, Science, 301, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1085706, 2003.
Parker, B. B.: Sea level as an indicator of climate and global change, Mar. Technol. Soc. J., 25, 13–24, 1992.
Perry, C. T., Murphy, G. N., Kench, P. S., Smithers, S. G., Edinger, E. N., Steneck, R. S., and Mumby, P. J.: Caribbean-wide decline in carbonate production threatens coral reef growth, Nat. Commun., 4, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2409, 2013.
Perry, C. T., Murhy, G. N., Kench, P. S., Edinger, E. N., Smithers, S. G., Steneck, R. S., and Mumby, P. J.: Changing dynamics of Caribbean reef carbonate budgets: emergence of reef bioeroders as critical controls on present and future reef growth potential, P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci., 281, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.2018, 2014.
Perry, C. T., Murphy, G. N., Nicholas, A. J., Graham, Wilson, S. K., Januchowski-Hartly, F. A., and East, H. K.: Remote coral reefs can sustain high growth potential and may match future sea-level trends, Sci. Rep., 5, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep18289, 2015.
Presto, M. K., Ogston, A. S., Storlazzi, C. D., and Field, M. E.: Temporal and spatial variability in the flow and dispersal of suspended-sediment on a fringing reef flat, Molokai, Hawaii, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 67, 67–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2005.10.015, 2006.
Quataert, E., Storlazzi, C., van Rooijen, A., Cheriton, O., and van Dongeren, A.: The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6407–6415, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl064861, 2015.
Reyes-Nivia, C., Diaz-Pulido, G., Kline, D., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Dove, S.: Ocean acidification and warming scenarios increase microbioerosion of coral skeletons, Glob. Change Biol., 19, 1919–1929, https://doi.org//10.1111/gcb.12158, 2013.
Schlager, W.: The paradox of drowned reefs and carbonate platforms, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 92, 197–211, 1981.
Shalowitz, A. L.: Interpretation and Use of Nautical Charts, in: Shore and Sea Boundaries, US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 269–355, 1964.
Sheppard, C., Dixon, D. J., Gourlay, M., Sheppard, A., and Payet, R.: Coral mortality increases wave energy reaching shores protected by reef flats: Examples from the Seychelles, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 64, 223–234, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2005.02.016, 2005.
Shinn, E. A., Hudson, J. H., Halley, R. B., and Lidz, B.: Topographic control and accumulation rate of some Holocene coral reefs: south Florida and Dry Tortugas, Third International Coral Reef Symposium, Miami, Florida, 1–7, 1977.
Shinn, E. A., Reich, C. D., Hickey, T. D., and Lidz, B. H.: Staghorn tempestites in the Florida Keys, Coral Reefs, 22, 91–97, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-003-0289-2, 2003.
Sparks, R., Stone, K., White, D., and Ross, M.: Maui and Lanai monitoring report: December 2015 (includes monitoring data from 1998–2015), Department of Land and Natural Resources, Division of Aquatic Resources, Maui, 42 pp., https://dlnr.hawaii.gov/dar/files/2016/07/Maui_Mon_Report.pdf, last acces: 1 February 2015.
Stearn, C. W., Scoffin, T. P., and Martinade, W.: Calcium carbonate budget of a fringing reef on the west coast of Barbados Part 1 – zonation and productivity, J. Mar. Sci., 27, 479–510, 1977.
Storlazzi, C. D. and Jaffe, B. E.: The relative contribution of processes driving variability in flow, shear, and turbidity over a fringing coral reef: West Maui, Hawaii, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 77, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2007.10.012, 2008.
Storlazzi, C. D., Ogston, A. S., Bothner, M. H., Field, M. E., and Presto, M. K.: Wave- and tidally-driven flow and sediment flux across a fringing coral reef: Southern Molokai, Hawaii, Cont. Shelf Res., 24, 1397–1419, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.02.010, 2004.
Storlazzi, C. D., Elias, E., Field, M. E., and Presto, M. K.: Numerical modeling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport, Coral Reefs, 30, 83–96, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-011-0723-9, 2011.
Taylor, K. H. and Purkis, S. J.: Evidence for southward migration of mud banks in Florida Bay, Mar. Geol., 311–314, 52–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2012.04.007, 2012.
Tribollet, A., Godinot, C., Atkinson, M., and Langdon, C.: Effects of elevated pCO2 on dissolution of coral carbonates by microbial euendoliths, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003286, 2009.
US Army Corps of Engineers-JALBTCX: 1999 USACE Bathymetric LiDAR: Hawaiian Islands, NOAA Office for Coastal Management, Place Published, http://www.coast.noaa.gov/htdata/lidar1_z/geoid12a/data/1457/1999_USACE_HI_Bathy_metadata.html, (last access: 22 September 2016), 1999.
US Army Corps of Engineers-JALBTCX: Looe Key, Florida 2004 LiDAR coverage, USACE National Coastal Mapping Program Place Published, http://catalog.data.gov/dataset/, (last access: 22 September 2016), 2004.
US Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, http://www.census.gov/prod/www/decennial.html, last access: 22 September 2016.
Wisshak, M., Schönberg, C. H. L., Form, A., and Freiwald, A.: Ocean acidification accelerates reef bioerosion, PLoS ONE, 7, e45124, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045124, 2012.
Wisshak, M., Schönberg, C. H. L., Form, A., and Freiwald, A.: Effects of ocean acidification and global warming on reef bioerosion – lessons from a clionaid sponge, Aquat Biol., 19, 111–127, https://doi.org/10.3354/ab00527, 2013.
Yates, K. K., Zawada, D. G., Smiley, N. A., Tiling-Range, G., and Resnick, J. P.: Seafloor elevation change in Maui, St. Croix, St. Thomas, and the Florida Keys, US Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/F7WQ01W0, 2017.
Short summary
We report regional-scale erosion of coral reef ecosystems in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Pacific oceans determined by measuring changes in seafloor elevation. The magnitude of seafloor elevation loss has increased local sea level rise, causing water depths not predicted until near 2100, placing coastal communities at elevated and accelerating risk from hazards such as waves, storms, and tsunamis. Our results have broad implications for coastal resource and safety management.
We report regional-scale erosion of coral reef ecosystems in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint