Articles | Volume 16, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3853-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3853-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Oct 2019
Research article |
| 08 Oct 2019
Modelling the response of net primary productivity of the Zambezi teak forests to climate change along a rainfall gradient in Zambia
School of Natural Resources, The Copperbelt University, P.O. Box 21692,
Kitwe, Zambia
Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Maarten C. Braakhekke
VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the
Netherlands
Bart Kruijt
Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Eddy Moors
VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the
Netherlands
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands
Iwan Supit
Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
James H. Speer
Department of Earth and Environmental Systems, Indiana State
University, Terre Haute, Indiana 47809, USA
Royd Vinya
School of Natural Resources, The Copperbelt University, P.O. Box 21692,
Kitwe, Zambia
Rik Leemans
Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Related authors
No articles found.
Ubolya Wanthanaporn, Iwan Supit, Bert van Hove, and Ronald W. A. Hutjes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-56, 2023
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the potential use of SEAS5 seasonal forecasting for Mainland Southeast Asia. The temperature and precipitation skills are tested. We subsequently implemented a hydrological model VIC to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts. SEAS5 is skilful to forecast temperature and rainfall as well as streamflow, but with strong seasonal and regional dependence. Overall, SEAS5 and hydrological forecasts show skill that can potentially be used for hydrological/agricultural management.
Jan Pisek, Angela Erb, Lauri Korhonen, Tobias Biermann, Arnaud Carrara, Edoardo Cremonese, Matthias Cuntz, Silvano Fares, Giacomo Gerosa, Thomas Grünwald, Niklas Hase, Michal Heliasz, Andreas Ibrom, Alexander Knohl, Johannes Kobler, Bart Kruijt, Holger Lange, Leena Leppänen, Jean-Marc Limousin, Francisco Ramon Lopez Serrano, Denis Loustau, Petr Lukeš, Lars Lundin, Riccardo Marzuoli, Meelis Mölder, Leonardo Montagnani, Johan Neirynck, Matthias Peichl, Corinna Rebmann, Eva Rubio, Margarida Santos-Reis, Crystal Schaaf, Marius Schmidt, Guillaume Simioni, Kamel Soudani, and Caroline Vincke
Biogeosciences, 18, 621–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-621-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understory vegetation is the most diverse, least understood component of forests worldwide. Understory communities are important drivers of overstory succession and nutrient cycling. Multi-angle remote sensing enables us to describe surface properties by means that are not possible when using mono-angle data. Evaluated over an extensive set of forest ecosystem experimental sites in Europe, our reported method can deliver good retrievals, especially over different forest types with open canopies.
Chris R. Flechard, Andreas Ibrom, Ute M. Skiba, Wim de Vries, Marcel van Oijen, David R. Cameron, Nancy B. Dise, Janne F. J. Korhonen, Nina Buchmann, Arnaud Legout, David Simpson, Maria J. Sanz, Marc Aubinet, Denis Loustau, Leonardo Montagnani, Johan Neirynck, Ivan A. Janssens, Mari Pihlatie, Ralf Kiese, Jan Siemens, André-Jean Francez, Jürgen Augustin, Andrej Varlagin, Janusz Olejnik, Radosław Juszczak, Mika Aurela, Daniel Berveiller, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Ulrich Dämmgen, Nicolas Delpierre, Vesna Djuricic, Julia Drewer, Eric Dufrêne, Werner Eugster, Yannick Fauvel, David Fowler, Arnoud Frumau, André Granier, Patrick Gross, Yannick Hamon, Carole Helfter, Arjan Hensen, László Horváth, Barbara Kitzler, Bart Kruijt, Werner L. Kutsch, Raquel Lobo-do-Vale, Annalea Lohila, Bernard Longdoz, Michal V. Marek, Giorgio Matteucci, Marta Mitosinkova, Virginie Moreaux, Albrecht Neftel, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Kim Pilegaard, Gabriel Pita, Francisco Sanz, Jan K. Schjoerring, Maria-Teresa Sebastià, Y. Sim Tang, Hilde Uggerud, Marek Urbaniak, Netty van Dijk, Timo Vesala, Sonja Vidic, Caroline Vincke, Tamás Weidinger, Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Eiko Nemitz, and Mark A. Sutton
Biogeosciences, 17, 1583–1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1583-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1583-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Experimental evidence from a network of 40 monitoring sites in Europe suggests that atmospheric nitrogen deposition to forests and other semi-natural vegetation impacts the carbon sequestration rates in ecosystems, as well as the net greenhouse gas balance including other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane. Excess nitrogen deposition in polluted areas also leads to other environmental impacts such as nitrogen leaching to groundwater and other pollutant gaseous emissions.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Jonathan C. Doelman, Peter Baas, Christoph Müller, Sibyll Schaphoff, Elke Stehfest, and Detlef P. van Vuuren
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 617–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a computer model that simulates forests plantations at global scale and how fast such forests can take up CO2 from the atmosphere. Using this new model, we performed simulations for a scenario in which a large fraction (14 %) of global croplands and pastures are either converted to planted forests or natural forests. We find that planted forests take up CO2 substantially faster than natural forests and are therefore a viable strategy for reducing climate change.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Pertti Hari, Steffen Noe, Sigrid Dengel, Jan Elbers, Bert Gielen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Bart Kruijt, Liisa Kulmala, Anders Lindroth, Ivan Mammarella, Tuukka Petäjä, Guy Schurgers, Anni Vanhatalo, Markku Kulmala, and Jaana Bäck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13321–13328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13321-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The development of eddy-covariance measurements of ecosystem CO2 fluxes began a new era in the field studies of photosynthesis. The interpretation of the very variable CO2 fluxes in evergreen forests has been problematic especially in seasonal transition times. We apply two theoretical needle-level equations and show they can predict photosynthetic CO2 flux between the atmosphere and Scots pine forests. This has strong implications for the interpretation of the global change and boreal forests.
Joop Kroes, Iwan Supit, Jos van Dam, Paul van Walsum, and Martin Mulder
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2937–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2937-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2937-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Impact of upward flow by capillary rise and recirculation on crop yields is often neglected or underestimated. Case studies and model experiments are used to illustrate the impact of this upward flow in the Dutch delta. Neglecting upward flow results in yield reductions for grassland, maize and potatoes. Half of the withheld water behind these yield effects comes from recirculated percolation water as occurs in free-drainage conditions; the other half from increased upward capillary rise.
Elisângela Broedel, Celso Von Randow, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Antonio Donato Nobre, Alessandro Carioca de Araújo, Bart Kruijt, Etienne Tourigny, Luiz Antônio Cândido, Martin Hodnett, and Javier Tomasella
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-203, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the simulation of surface fluxes in two distinct environments along a topographic gradient in a central Amazonian forest using the INLAND Model. The results show that a surface model can capture the small differences related to energy, water and carbon balance between both sites. These confirms the importance to incorporate subgrid scale variability by including relief attributes of topography, soil and vegetation to better representing Terra Firme forests in these models.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Joop Kroes, Iwan Supit, Martin Mulder, Jos Van Dam, and Paul Van Walsum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-598, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-598, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the effects of various soil water flow regimes on growth and yields of grass, maize and potato crops in the Dutch delta, with a focus on the role of capillary rise. Different flow regimes are characterised by differences in soil composition and structure are derived from a national soil database. We conclude that the capillary rise plays an important role in crop growth and yield formation.
Bradley O. Christoffersen, Manuel Gloor, Sophie Fauset, Nikolaos M. Fyllas, David R. Galbraith, Timothy R. Baker, Bart Kruijt, Lucy Rowland, Rosie A. Fisher, Oliver J. Binks, Sanna Sevanto, Chonggang Xu, Steven Jansen, Brendan Choat, Maurizio Mencuccini, Nate G. McDowell, and Patrick Meir
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4227–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4227-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4227-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a plant hydraulics model for tropical forests based on established plant physiological theory, and parameterized it by conducting a pantropical hydraulic trait survey. We show that a substantial amount of trait diversity can be represented in the model by a reduced set of trait dimensions. The fully parameterized model is able capture tree-level variation in water status and improves simulations of total ecosystem transpiration, showing how to incorporate hydraulic traits in models.
Kaniska Mallick, Ivonne Trebs, Eva Boegh, Laura Giustarini, Martin Schlerf, Darren T. Drewry, Lucien Hoffmann, Celso von Randow, Bart Kruijt, Alessandro Araùjo, Scott Saleska, James R. Ehleringer, Tomas F. Domingues, Jean Pierre H. B. Ometto, Antonio D. Nobre, Osvaldo Luiz Leal de Moraes, Matthew Hayek, J. William Munger, and Steven C. Wofsy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4237–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4237-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4237-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
While quantifying vegetation water use over multiple plant function types in the Amazon Basin, we found substantial biophysical control during drought as well as a water-stress period and dominant climatic control during a water surplus period. This work has direct implication in understanding the resilience of the Amazon forest in the spectre of frequent drought menace as well as the role of drought-induced plant biophysical functioning in modulating the water-carbon coupling in this ecosystem.
Mirjam J. D. Hack-ten Broeke, Joop G. Kroes, Ruud P. Bartholomeus, Jos C. van Dam, Allard J. W. de Wit, Iwan Supit, Dennis J. J. Walvoort, P. Jan T. van Bakel, and Rob Ruijtenberg
SOIL, 2, 391–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2-391-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2-391-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
For calculating the effects of hydrological measures on agricultural production in the Netherlands a new comprehensive and climate proof method is being developed: WaterVision Agriculture (in Dutch: Waterwijzer Landbouw). End users have asked for a method that considers current and future climate, which can quantify the differences between years and also the effects of extreme weather events.
Long Phi Hoang, Hannu Lauri, Matti Kummu, Jorma Koponen, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Iwan Supit, Rik Leemans, Pavel Kabat, and Fulco Ludwig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3027–3041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled hydrological changes under climate change in the Mekong River, focusing on extreme events. The scenario ensemble shows an intensification of the hydrological cycle under climate change. Annual river flow increases between 5 and 16 % depending on locations. Extreme high flows increase substantially in both magnitude and frequency, posing threats to flood safety in the basin. Extreme low-flow events are projected to reduce as a result of increased river flow during the dry season.
M. H. Vermeulen, B. J. Kruijt, T. Hickler, and P. Kabat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 485–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-485-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We compared a process-based ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) with EC measurements to test whether observed interannual variability (IAV) in carbon and water fluxes can be reproduced because it is important to understand the driving mechanisms of IAV. We show that the model's mechanistic process representation for photosynthesis at low temperatures and during drought could be improved, but other process representations are still lacking in order to fully reproduce the observed IAV.
M. C. Braakhekke, T. Wutzler, C. Beer, J. Kattge, M. Schrumpf, B. Ahrens, I. Schöning, M. R. Hoosbeek, B. Kruijt, P. Kabat, and M. Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 10, 399–420, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-399-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-399-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Terrestrial
Information content in time series of litter decomposition studies and the transit time of litter in arid lands
Long-term changes of nitrogen leaching and the contributions of terrestrial nutrient sources to lake eutrophication dynamics on the Yangtze Plain of China
Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations
Effect of land-use legacy on the future carbon sink for the conterminous US
Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis
Improved representation of phosphorus exchange on soil mineral surfaces reduces estimates of phosphorus limitation in temperate forest ecosystems
Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance
A coupled ground heat flux–surface energy balance model of evaporation using thermal remote sensing observations
Optimizing the Carbonic Anhydrase temperature response and stomatal conductance of carbonyl sulfide leaf uptake in the simple biosphere model (SiB4)
Modeling nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soil incubation experiments using CoupModel
Mapping of ESA-CCI land cover data to plant functional types for use in the CLASSIC land model
Key drivers of the annual carbon budget of biocrusts from various climatic zones determined with a mechanistic data-driven model
Local-scale evaluation of the simulated interactions between energy, water and vegetation in ISBA, ORCHIDEE and a diagnostic model
Implementation and initial calibration of carbon-13 soil organic matter decomposition in the Yasso model
Potassium-limitation of forest productivity, part 1: A mechanistic model simulating the effects of potassium availability on canopy carbon and water fluxes in tropical eucalypt stands
Potassium-limitation of forest productivity, part 2: CASTANEA-MAESPA-K shows a reduction in photosynthesis rather than a stoichiometric limitation of tissue formation
The carbon budget of the managed grasslands of Great Britain – informed by earth observations
Accounting for non-rainfall moisture and temperature improves litter decay model performance in a fog-dominated dryland system
Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data-model integration
Ideas and perspectives: Allocation of carbon from net primary production in models is inconsistent with observations of the age of respired carbon
Exploring the role of bedrock representation on plant transpiration response during dry periods at four forested sites in Europe
Effects of climate change in European croplands and grasslands: productivity, greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon storage
Assimilation of passive microwave vegetation optical depth in LDAS-Monde: a case study over the continental USA
Global modelling of soil carbonyl sulfide exchanges
Assessing the impacts of agricultural managements on soil carbon stocks, nitrogen loss, and crop production – a modelling study in eastern Africa
The effects of varying drought-heat signatures on terrestrial carbon dynamics and vegetation composition
Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies
Effect of droughts on future weathering rates in Sweden
Resolving temperature limitation on spring productivity in an evergreen conifer forest using a model–data fusion framework
A robust initialization method for accurate soil organic carbon simulations
Evaluation of carbonyl sulfide biosphere exchange in the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4)
Model simulations of arctic biogeochemistry and permafrost extent are highly sensitive to the implemented snow scheme in LPJ-GUESS
Theoretical insights from upscaling Michaelis–Menten microbial dynamics in biogeochemical models: a dimensionless approach
Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change
An improved process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model for simulating dynamic fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide in alpine ecosystems with seasonally frozen soils
A novel representation of biological nitrogen fixation and competitive dynamics between nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing plants in a land model (GFDL LM4.1-BNF)
Organic phosphorus cycling may control grassland responses to nitrogen deposition: a long-term field manipulation and modelling study
A triple tree-ring constraint for tree growth and physiology in a global land surface model
Simulating shrubs and their energy and carbon dioxide fluxes in Canada's Low Arctic with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC)
Competing effects of nitrogen deposition and ozone exposure on northern hemispheric terrestrial carbon uptake and storage, 1850–2099
Carbonyl sulfide: comparing a mechanistic representation of the vegetation uptake in a land surface model and the leaf relative uptake approach
Optimal model complexity for terrestrial carbon cycle prediction
CO2 physiological effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon
Plant phenology evaluation of CRESCENDO land surface models – Part 1: Start and end of the growing season
Understanding the effect of fire on vegetation composition and gross primary production in a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model
Impacts of fertilization on grassland productivity and water quality across the European Alps under current and warming climate: insights from a mechanistic model
The climate benefit of carbon sequestration
Extending a land-surface model with Sphagnum moss to simulate responses of a northern temperate bog to whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2
Improving the representation of high-latitude vegetation distribution in dynamic global vegetation models
Robust processing of airborne laser scans to plant area density profiles
Agustín Sarquis and Carlos A. Sierra
Biogeosciences, 20, 1759–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Although plant litter is chemically and physically heterogenous and undergoes multiple transformations, models that represent litter dynamics often ignore this complexity. We used a multi-model inference framework to include information content in litter decomposition datasets and studied the time it takes for litter to decompose as measured by the transit time. In arid lands, the median transit time of litter is about 3 years and has a negative correlation with mean annual temperature.
Qi Guan, Jing Tang, Lian Feng, Stefan Olin, and Guy Schurgers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding terrestrial sources of nitrogen is vital to examine lake eutrophication changes. Combining process-based ecosystem modeling and satellite observations, we found that land-leached nitrogen in the Yangtze Plain significantly increased from 1979 to 2018, and terrestrial nutrient sources were positively correlated with eutrophication trends observed in most lakes, demonstrating the necessity of sustainable nitrogen management to control eutrophication.
Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The behaviour of natural systems is now very often represented through mathematical models. These models represent our understanding of how nature works. Of course, nature does not care about our understanding. Since our understanding is not perfect, evaluating models is challenging, and there are uncertainties. This paper illustrates this uncertainty for land models and argues that evaluating models in light of the uncertainty in various components provides useful information.
Benjamin S. Felzer
Biogeosciences, 20, 573–587, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The future of the terrestrial carbon sink depends upon the legacy of past land use, which determines the stand age of the forest and nutrient levels in the soil, both of which affect vegetation growth. This study uses a modeling approach to determine the effects of land-use legacy in the conterminous US from 1750 to 2099. Not accounting for land legacy results in a low carbon sink and high biomass, while water variables are not as highly affected.
Bailu Zhao and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 20, 251–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use a process-based model to simulate the northern peatland's C dynamics in response to future climate change during 1990–2300. Northern peatlands are projected to be a C source under all climate scenarios except for the mildest one before 2100 and C sources under all scenarios afterwards.
We find northern peatlands are a C sink until pan-Arctic annual temperature reaches −2.09 to −2.89 °C. This study emphasizes the vulnerability of northern peatlands to climate change.
Lin Yu, Silvia Caldararu, Bernhard Ahrens, Thomas Wutzler, Marion Schrumpf, Julian Helfenstein, Chiara Pistocchi, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 20, 57–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-57-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-57-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we addressed a key weakness in current ecosystem models regarding the phosphorus exchange in the soil and developed a new scheme to describe this process. We showed that the new scheme improved the model performance for plant productivity, soil organic carbon, and soil phosphorus content at five beech forest sites in Germany. We claim that this new model could be used as a better tool to study ecosystems under future climate change, particularly phosphorus-limited systems.
Alexander J. Norton, A. Anthony Bloom, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Paul A. Levine, Shuang Ma, Renato K. Braghiere, and Luke T. Smallman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1265, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how the representation of leaf phenology affects our ability to predict changes to the carbon balance of land ecosystems. We calibrate a new leaf phenology model against a diverse range of observations at six forest sites, showing that it improves the predictive capability of the processes underlying the ecosystem carbon balance. We then show how changes in temperature and rainfall affect the ecosystem carbon balance with this new model.
Bimal K. Bhattacharya, Kaniska Mallick, Devansh Desai, Ganapati S. Bhat, Ross Morrison, Jamie R. Clevery, William Woodgate, Jason Beringer, Kerry Cawse-Nicholson, Siyan Ma, Joseph Verfaillie, and Dennis Baldocchi
Biogeosciences, 19, 5521–5551, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5521-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5521-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation retrieval in heterogeneous ecosystems is challenging due to empirical estimation of ground heat flux and complex parameterizations of conductances. We developed a parameter-sparse coupled ground heat flux-evaporation model and tested it across different limits of water stress and vegetation fraction in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. The model performed particularly well in the savannas and showed good potential for evaporative stress monitoring from thermal infrared satellites.
Ara Cho, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Richard Wehr, and Maarten C. Krol
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1305, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Carbonyl Sulfide (COS) is a useful constraint on photosynthesis. To simulate COS leaf flux better in the SiB4 model, we propose a new temperature function for the enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) and optimize conductances using observations. CA has an optimum temperature below 40 °C, which can be influenced critically by air temperature changes. It brings tropics a smaller and higher latitudes a larger uptake. This update helps resolve gaps in the COS budget identified in earlier studies.
Jie Zhang, Wenxin Zhang, Per-Erik Jansson, and Søren O. Petersen
Biogeosciences, 19, 4811–4832, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we relied on a properly controlled laboratory experiment to test the model’s capability of simulating the dominant microbial processes and the emissions of one greenhouse gas (nitrous oxide, N2O) from agricultural soils. This study reveals important processes and parameters that regulate N2O emissions in the investigated model framework and also suggests future steps of model development, which have implications on the broader communities of ecosystem modelers.
Libo Wang, Vivek K. Arora, Paul Bartlett, Ed Chan, and Salvatore R. Curasi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-923, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Plant functional types (PFTs) are groups of plant species used to represent vegetation distribution in land surface models. There are large uncertainties associated with existing methods for mapping land cover datasets to PFTs. This study demonstrates how fine-resolution tree cover fraction and land cover datasets can be used to inform the PFT mapping process and reduce the uncertainties. The proposed largely objective method makes it easier to implement new land cover products in models.
Yunyao Ma, Bettina Weber, Alexandra Kratz, José Raggio, Claudia Colesie, Maik Veste, Maaike Y. Bader, and Philipp Porada
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-179, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Our study found while air temperature, ambient CO2 concentration, light intensity, and relative humidity are key drivers for annual carbon (C) balance, their relative impacts vary markedly among climatic zones. Moreover, seasonal acclimation may alter the C balance substantially at humid sites. Our study implies that climate change may have large effects on biocrust C balance at global scale, and suggests covering different seasons when measuring physiological traits to account for acclimation.
Jan De Pue, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Manuela Balzarolo, Fabienne Maignan, and Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs
Biogeosciences, 19, 4361–4386, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The functioning of ecosystems involves numerous biophysical processes which interact with each other. Land surface models (LSMs) are used to describe these processes and form an essential component of climate models. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of three LSMs and their interactions with soil moisture and vegetation. Though we found room for improvement in the simulation of soil moisture and drought stress, the main cause of errors was related to the simulated growth of vegetation.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Laura Arppe, Hannu Fritze, Jussi Heinonsalo, Kristiina Karhu, Jari Liski, Markku Oinonen, Petra Straková, and Toni Viskari
Biogeosciences, 19, 4305–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soils account for the largest share of carbon found in terrestrial ecosystems, and accurate depiction of soil carbon decomposition is essential in understanding how permanent these carbon storages are. We present a straightforward way to include carbon isotope concentrations into soil decomposition and carbon storages for the Yasso model, which enables the model to use 13C as a natural tracer to track changes in the underlying soil organic matter decomposition.
Ivan Cornut, Nicolas Delpierre, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, Otavio Campoe, Jose Luiz Stape, Vitoria Fernanda Santos, and Guerric le Maire
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-883, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Potassium is an essential element for living organisms. Trees are dependent upon this element for certain of their functions that allow them to build their trunk using carbon dioxide. Using data from experiments in eucalypt plantations in Brazil and a simplified computer model of the plantations we were able to investigate the effect the lack of potassium can have on the production of wood. Understanding nutrient cycles is useful to understand the response of forests to environmental change.
Ivan Cornut, Guerric le Maire, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, and Nicolas Delpierre
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-884, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
After simulating the effects of low levels of Potassium on the canopy of trees and the uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by leaves in part 1, here we tried to simulate the way the trees use the carbon they have acquired and the interaction with the potassium cycle in the tree. We show that the effect of low potassium on the efficiency of the trees to acquire carbon is enought to exlplain why they do not produce enough wood when they are in soils with low levels of potassium.
Vasileios Myrgiotis, Thomas Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams
Biogeosciences, 19, 4147–4170, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4147-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that livestock grazing and grass cutting can determine whether a grassland is adding (source) or removing (sink) carbon (C) to/from the atmosphere. The annual C balance of 1855 managed grassland fields in Great Britain was quantified for 2017–2018 using process modelling and earth observation data. The examined fields were, on average, small C sinks, but the summer drought of 2018 led to a 9-fold increase in the number of fields that became C sources in 2018 compared to 2017.
J. Robert Logan, Kathe E. Todd-Brown, Kathryn M. Jacobson, Peter J. Jacobson, Roland Vogt, and Sarah E. Evans
Biogeosciences, 19, 4129–4146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4129-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how plants decompose is important for understanding where the atmospheric CO2 they absorb ends up after they die. In forests, decomposition is controlled by rain but not in deserts. We performed a 2.5-year study in one of the driest places on earth (the Namib desert in southern Africa) and found that fog and dew, not rainfall, closely controlled how quickly plants decompose. We also created a model to help predict decomposition in drylands with lots of fog and/or dew.
Kevin R. Wilcox, Scott L. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, William Pockman, Zheng Shi, Melinda Smith, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-164, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-164, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
The capacity for carbon storage (C capacity) is an attribute that determines how ecosystems will store carbon in the future. Here, we employ novel data-model integration techniques to identify the carbon capacity of six grassland sites spanning the US Great Plains. Hot and dry sites had low C capacity due to less plant growth and high turnover of soil C so they may be a C source in the future. Alternately, cooler and wetter ecosystems had high C capacity, so these systems may be a future C sink.
Carlos A. Sierra, Verónika Ceballos-Núñez, Henrik Hartmann, David Herrera-Ramírez, and Holger Metzler
Biogeosciences, 19, 3727–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3727-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Empirical work that estimates the age of respired CO2 from vegetation tissue shows that it may take from years to decades to respire previously produced photosynthates. However, many ecosystem models represent respiration processes in a form that cannot reproduce these observations. In this contribution, we attempt to provide compelling evidence, based on recent research, with the aim to promote a change in the predominant paradigm implemented in ecosystem models.
César Dionisio Jiménez-Rodríguez, Mauro Sulis, and Stanislaus Schymanski
Biogeosciences, 19, 3395–3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3395-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation relies on soil water reservoirs during dry periods. However, when this source is depleted, the plants may access water stored deeper in the rocks. This rock moisture contribution is usually omitted in large-scale models, which affects modeled plant water use during dry periods. Our study illustrates that including this additional source of water in the Community Land Model improves the model's ability to reproduce observed plant water use at seasonally dry sites.
Marco Carozzi, Raphaël Martin, Katja Klumpp, and Raia Silvia Massad
Biogeosciences, 19, 3021–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3021-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Crop and grassland production indicates a strong reduction due to the shortening of the length of the growing cycle associated with rising temperatures. Greenhouse gas emissions will increase exponentially over the century, often exceeding the CO2 accumulation of agro-ecosystems. Water demand will double in the next few decades, whereas the benefits in terms of yield will not fill the gap of C losses due to climate perturbation. Climate change will have a regionally distributed effect in the EU.
Anthony Mucia, Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Biogeosciences, 19, 2557–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, microwave vegetation optical depth data are assimilated in a land surface model in order to analyze leaf area index and root zone soil moisture. The advantage of microwave products is the higher observation frequency. A large variety of independent datasets are used to verify the added value of the assimilation. It is shown that the assimilation is able to improve the representation of soil moisture, vegetation conditions, and terrestrial water and carbon fluxes.
Camille Abadie, Fabienne Maignan, Marine Remaud, Jérôme Ogée, J. Elliott Campbell, Mary E. Whelan, Florian Kitz, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Richard Wehr, Wu Sun, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Didier Hauglustaine, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Sauveur Belviso, David Montagne, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 19, 2427–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A better constraint of the components of the carbonyl sulfide (COS) global budget is needed to exploit its potential as a proxy of gross primary productivity. In this study, we compare two representations of oxic soil COS fluxes, and we develop an approach to represent anoxic soil COS fluxes in a land surface model. We show the importance of atmospheric COS concentration variations on oxic soil COS fluxes and provide new estimates for oxic and anoxic soil contributions to the COS global budget.
Jianyong Ma, Sam S. Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, Stefan Olin, Longlong Xia, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. We simulated the impacts of seven management practices on soil carbon pools, nitrogen loss, and crop yield under different climate scenarios in this region. This study highlights the possibilities of conservation agriculture when targeting long-term environmental sustainability and food security in crop ecosystems, particularly for those with poor soil conditions in tropical climates.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Jennifer A. Holm, David M. Medvigy, Benjamin Smith, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Claus Beier, Mikhail Mishurov, Xiangtao Xu, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Craig D. Allen, Klaus S. Larsen, Yiqi Luo, Cari Ficken, William T. Pockman, William R. L. Anderegg, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-65, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts for ecosystems. We examine extreme droughts with rising CO2 and temperatures using two dynamic vegetation models, to assess ecological processes to measure, and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explored specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Veronika Kronnäs, Klas Lucander, Giuliana Zanchi, Nadja Stadlinger, Salim Belyazid, and Cecilia Akselsson
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-78, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
In a future climate, extreme droughts might become more common. Climate change and droughts can have negative effects on soil weathering and plant health. In this study, climate change effects on weathering were studied on sites in Sweden, using the model ForSAFE, a climate change scenario and an extreme drought scenario. The modelling shows that weathering is higher during summer, increases with global warming, but that weathering during drought summers can become as low as winter weathering.
Stephanie G. Stettz, Nicholas C. Parazoo, A. Anthony Bloom, Peter D. Blanken, David R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Brett Raczka, Alexander J. Norton, Ian Baker, Mathew Williams, Mingjie Shi, Yongguang Zhang, and Bo Qiu
Biogeosciences, 19, 541–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty in the response of photosynthesis to temperature poses a major challenge to predicting the response of forests to climate change. In this paper, we study how photosynthesis in a mountainous evergreen forest is limited by temperature. This study highlights that cold temperature is a key factor that controls spring photosynthesis. Including the cold-temperature limitation in an ecosystem model improved its ability to simulate spring photosynthesis.
Eva Kanari, Lauric Cécillon, François Baudin, Hugues Clivot, Fabien Ferchaud, Sabine Houot, Florent Levavasseur, Bruno Mary, Laure Soucémarianadin, Claire Chenu, and Pierre Barré
Biogeosciences, 19, 375–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-375-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is crucial for climate regulation, soil quality, and food security. Predicting its evolution over the next decades is key for appropriate land management policies. However, SOC projections lack accuracy. Here we show for the first time that PARTYSOC, an approach combining thermal analysis and machine learning optimizes the accuracy of SOC model simulations at independent sites. This method can be applied at large scales, improving SOC projections on a continental scale.
Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Ara Cho, Jin Ma, Aleya Kaushik, Katherine D. Haynes, Ian Baker, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Mathijs Groenink, Wouter Peters, John B. Miller, Joseph A. Berry, Jerome Ogée, Laura K. Meredith, Wu Sun, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Huilin Chen, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Max Berkelhammer, Mary E. Whelan, Kadmiel Maseyk, Ulli Seibt, Roisin Commane, Richard Wehr, and Maarten Krol
Biogeosciences, 18, 6547–6565, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6547-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6547-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The gas carbonyl sulfide (COS) can be used to estimate photosynthesis. To adopt this approach on regional and global scales, we need biosphere models that can simulate COS exchange. So far, such models have not been evaluated against observations. We evaluate the COS biosphere exchange of the SiB4 model against COS flux observations. We find that the model is capable of simulating key processes in COS biosphere exchange. Still, we give recommendations for further improvement of the model.
Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Biogeosciences, 18, 5767–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that the introduction of a multi-layer snow scheme in the LPJ-GUESS DGVM improved simulations of high-latitude soil temperature dynamics and permafrost extent compared to observations. In addition, these improvements led to shifts in carbon fluxes that contrasted within and outside of the permafrost region. Our results show that a realistic snow scheme is essential to accurately simulate snow–soil–vegetation relationships and carbon–climate feedbacks.
Chris H. Wilson and Stefan Gerber
Biogeosciences, 18, 5669–5679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5669-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To better mitigate against climate change, it is imperative that ecosystem scientists understand how microbes decompose organic carbon in the soil and thereby release it as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A major challenge is the high variability across ecosystems in microbial biomass and in the environmental factors like temperature that drive their activity. In this paper, we use math to better understand how this variability impacts carbon dioxide release over large scales.
Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 18, 4937–4952, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost soils hold about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. As the Earth warms the organic matter in these soils will decay, releasing CO2 and CH4. It is expected that these soils will continue to release carbon to the atmosphere long after man-made emissions of greenhouse gases cease. Here we use a method employing hundreds of slightly varying model versions to estimate how much warming permafrost carbon will cause after human emissions of CO2 end.
Wei Zhang, Zhisheng Yao, Siqi Li, Xunhua Zheng, Han Zhang, Lei Ma, Kai Wang, Rui Wang, Chunyan Liu, Shenghui Han, Jia Deng, and Yong Li
Biogeosciences, 18, 4211–4225, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The hydro-biogeochemical model Catchment Nutrient Management Model – DeNitrification-DeComposition (CNMM-DNDC) is improved by incorporating a soil thermal module to simulate the soil thermal regime in the presence of freeze–thaw cycles. The modified model is validated at a seasonally frozen catchment with typical alpine ecosystems (wetland, meadow and forest). The simulated aggregate emissions of methane and nitrous oxide are highest for the wetland, which is dominated by the methane emissions.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Sergey Malyshev, Isabel Martínez Cano, Stephen W. Pacala, Elena Shevliakova, Thomas A. Bytnerowicz, and Duncan N. L. Menge
Biogeosciences, 18, 4143–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4143-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4143-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Representing biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is an important challenge for land models. We present a novel representation of BNF and updated nitrogen cycling in a land model. It includes a representation of asymbiotic BNF by soil microbes and the competitive dynamics between nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing plants. It improves estimations of major carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes and their temporal dynamics in comparison to previous representations of BNF in land models.
Christopher R. Taylor, Victoria Janes-Bassett, Gareth K. Phoenix, Ben Keane, Iain P. Hartley, and Jessica A. C. Davies
Biogeosciences, 18, 4021–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4021-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used experimental data to model two phosphorus-limited grasslands and investigated their response to nitrogen (N) deposition. Greater uptake of organic P facilitated a positive response to N deposition, stimulating growth and soil carbon storage. Where organic P access was less, N deposition exacerbated P demand and reduced plant C input to the soil. This caused more C to be released into the atmosphere than is taken in, reducing the climate-mitigation capacity of the modelled grassland.
Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Thomas Launois, Valerie Daux, Camille Risi, Jina Jeong, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 18, 3781–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3781-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The width and the chemical signals of tree rings have the potential to test and improve the physiological responses simulated by global land surface models, which are at the core of future climate projections. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of tree-ring width and carbon and oxygen stable isotopes to evaluate the representation of tree growth and physiology in a global land surface model at temporal scales beyond experimentation and direct observation.
Gesa Meyer, Elyn R. Humphreys, Joe R. Melton, Alex J. Cannon, and Peter M. Lafleur
Biogeosciences, 18, 3263–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3263-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Shrub and sedge plant functional types (PFTs) were incorporated in the land surface component of the Canadian Earth System Model to improve representation of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Evaluated against 14 years of non-winter measurements, the magnitude and seasonality of carbon dioxide and energy fluxes at a Canadian dwarf-shrub tundra site were better captured by the shrub PFTs than by previously used grass and tree PFTs. Model simulations showed the tundra site to be an annual net CO2 source.
Martina Franz and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The combined effects of ozone and nitrogen deposition on the terrestrial carbon uptake and storage has been unclear. Our simulations, from 1850 to 2099, show that ozone-related damage considerably reduced gross primary production and carbon storage in the past. The growth-stimulating effect induced by nitrogen deposition is offset until the 2050s. Accounting for nitrogen deposition without considering ozone effects might lead to an overestimation of terrestrial carbon uptake and storage.
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) by continental vegetation has been proposed as a proxy for gross primary production (GPP). Using a land surface and a transport model, we compare a mechanistic representation of the plant COS uptake (Berry et al., 2013) to the classical leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach linking GPP and vegetation COS fluxes. We show that at high temporal resolutions a mechanistic approach is mandatory, but at large scales the LRU approach compares similarly.
Caroline A. Famiglietti, T. Luke Smallman, Paul A. Levine, Sophie Flack-Prain, Gregory R. Quetin, Victoria Meyer, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Stephanie G. Stettz, Yan Yang, Damien Bonal, A. Anthony Bloom, Mathew Williams, and Alexandra G. Konings
Biogeosciences, 18, 2727–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Model uncertainty dominates the spread in terrestrial carbon cycle predictions. Efforts to reduce it typically involve adding processes, thereby increasing model complexity. However, if and how model performance scales with complexity is unclear. Using a suite of 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models, we find that increased complexity only improves skill if parameters are adequately informed. Otherwise, it can degrade skill, and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal.
Gilvan Sampaio, Marília H. Shimizu, Carlos A. Guimarães-Júnior, Felipe Alexandre, Marcelo Guatura, Manoel Cardoso, Tomas F. Domingues, Anja Rammig, Celso von Randow, Luiz F. C. Rezende, and David M. Lapola
Biogeosciences, 18, 2511–2525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of large-scale deforestation and the physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on Amazon rainfall are systematically compared in this study. Our results are remarkable in showing that the two disturbances cause equivalent rainfall decrease, though through different causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of not only curbing regional deforestation but also reducing global CO2 emissions to avoid climatic changes in the Amazon.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Karun Pandit, Hamid Dashti, Andrew T. Hudak, Nancy F. Glenn, Alejandro N. Flores, and Douglas J. Shinneman
Biogeosciences, 18, 2027–2045, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2027-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A dynamic global vegetation model, Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2), is used to understand spatiotemporal dynamics of a semi-arid shrub ecosystem under alternative fire regimes. Multi-decadal point simulations suggest shrub dominance for a non-fire scenario and a contrasting phase of shrub and C3 grass growth for a fire scenario. Regional gross primary productivity (GPP) simulations indicate moderate agreement with MODIS GPP and a GPP reduction in fire-affected areas before showing some recovery.
Martina Botter, Matthias Zeeman, Paolo Burlando, and Simone Fatichi
Biogeosciences, 18, 1917–1939, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1917-2021, 2021
Carlos A. Sierra, Susan E. Crow, Martin Heimann, Holger Metzler, and Ernst-Detlef Schulze
Biogeosciences, 18, 1029–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1029-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The climate benefit of carbon sequestration (CBS) is a metric developed to quantify avoided warming by two separate processes: the amount of carbon drawdown from the atmosphere and the time this carbon is stored in a reservoir. This metric can be useful for quantifying the role of forests and soils for climate change mitigation and to better quantify the benefits of carbon removals by sinks.
Xiaoying Shi, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Peter E. Thornton, Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Richard J. Norby, Anthony P. Walker, Jeffrey M. Warren, Jiafu Mao, Paul J. Hanson, Lin Meng, David Weston, and Natalie A. Griffiths
Biogeosciences, 18, 467–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-467-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Sphagnum mosses are the important species of a wetland ecosystem. To better represent the peatland ecosystem, we introduced the moss species to the land model component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing water content dynamics and nonvascular photosynthetic processes for moss. We tested the model against field observations and used the model to make projections of the site's carbon cycle under warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios.
Peter Horvath, Hui Tang, Rune Halvorsen, Frode Stordal, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Terje Koren Berntsen, and Anders Bryn
Biogeosciences, 18, 95–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-95-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-95-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the performance of three methods for representing vegetation cover. Remote sensing provided the best match to a reference dataset, closely followed by distribution modelling (DM), whereas the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) in CLM4.5BGCDV deviated strongly from the reference. Sensitivity tests show that use of threshold values for predictors identified by DM may improve DGVM performance. The results highlight the potential of using DM in the development of DGVMs.
Johan Arnqvist, Julia Freier, and Ebba Dellwik
Biogeosciences, 17, 5939–5952, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5939-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5939-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Data generated by airborne laser scans enable the characterization of surface vegetation for any application that might need it, such as forest management, modeling for numerical weather prediction, or wind energy estimation. In this work we present a new algorithm for calculating the vegetation density using data from airborne laser scans. The new routine is more robust than earlier methods, and an implementation in popular programming languages accompanies the article to support new users.
Cited articles
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and
uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change
projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012.
Alo, C. A. and Wang, G.: Potential future changes of the terrestrial
ecosystem based on climate projections by eight general circulation models,
J. Geophys. Res., 113, G01004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000528, 2008.
Babst, F., Poulter, B., Trouet, V., Tan, K., Neuwirth, B., Wilson, R.,
Carrer, M., Grabner, M., Tegel, W., Levanic, T., Panayotov, M., Urbinati,
C., Bouriaud, O., Ciais, P., and Frank, D.: Site- and species-specific
responses of forest growth to climate across the European continent, Global
Ecol. Biogeogr., 22, 706–717, 2013.
Braakhekke, M. C., Rebel, K. T., Dekker, S. C., Smith, B., Beusen, A. H. W., and Wassen, M. J.: Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1121–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, 2017.
Burton, A. J., Melillo, J. M., and Frey, S. D.: Adjustment of Forest
Ecosystem Root Respiration as Temperature Warms, J. Integr.
Plant Biol., 50, 1467–1483, 2008.
Bwalya, S. M.: Climate Change in Zambia: Opportunities for Adaptation and
Mitigation through Africa Bio-Carbon Initiative, Center for International
Forest Research, Southern Africa Regional Office, Lusaka, Zambia, 1–49,
2010.
Cao, M. and Woodward, F. I.: Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystem
carbon cycling to global climate change, Nature, 393, 249–252, 1998.
Cao, M., Zhang, Q., and Shugart, H. H.: Dynamic responses of African
ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change, Clim. Res., 17, 183–193,
2001.
Chapin, F. S., Eviner, V. T., Holland, H. D., and Turekian, K. K.: 8.06 –
Biogeochemistry of Terrestrial Net Primary Production, in: Treatise on
Geochemistry, edited by: Schlesinger, W. H., Pergamon, Oxford, 2007.
Chen, T., Werf, G. R., Jeu, R. A. M., Wang, G., and Dolman, A. J.: A global analysis of the impact of drought on net primary productivity, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3885–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3885-2013, 2013.
Ciais, P., Piao, S.-L., Cadule, P., Friedlingstein, P., and Chédin, A.: Variability and recent trends in the African terrestrial carbon balance, Biogeosciences, 6, 1935–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-1935-2009, 2009.
Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Jacoby, H., Pitcher, H., Reilly, J., and Richels, R.:
Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations.
Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research
Department of Energy (Ed.), Office of Biological & Environmental
Research, Washington, USA, 2007.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011.
Curtis, P. S. and Wang, X.: A meta-analysis of elevated CO2 effects on woody
plant mass, form, and physiology, Oecologia, 113, 299–313, 1998.
Davey, P., Parsons, A., Atkinson, L., Wadge, K., and Long, S.: Does
photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2 increase photosynthetic
nitrogen-use efficiency? A study of three native UK grassland species in
open-top chambers, Funct. Ecol., 13, 21–28, 1999.
Delire, C., Ngomanda, A., and Jolly, D.: Possible impacts of 21st century
climate on vegetation in Central and West Africa, Global Planet.
Change, 64, 3–15, 2008.
Doherty, R. M., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Lewis, S. L., and Thornton, P. K.:
Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional
biogeochemistry, biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa,
Glob. Change Biol., 16, 617–640, 2010.
Doughty, C. E. and Goulden, M. L.: Are tropical forests near a high
temperature threshold?, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo.,
113, G00B07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000632, 2008.
Dube, K. and Nhamo, G.: Climate variability, change and potential impacts on
tourism: Evidence from the Zambian side of the Victoria Falls, Environ.
Sci. Pol., 84, 113–123, 2018.
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont,
O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp,
L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic,
A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L.,
Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L.,
Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J.,
Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A.,
Lefebvre, M.-P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F.,
Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J.,
Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D.,
Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate
change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to
CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, 2013.
Ellsworth, D. S.: CO2 enrichment in a maturing pine forest: are CO2 exchange
and water status in the canopy affected?, Plant Cell Environ., 22,
461–472, 1999.
Farquhar, G. D., von Caemmerer, S., and Berry, J. A.: A biochemical model of
photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species, Planta, 149, 78–90,
1980.
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J.,
Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak,
K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H. D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh,
L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D.,
Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H.,
Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K. D., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C.,
Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K. H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and
Stevens, B.: Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM
simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, J. Adv.
Model. Earth Syst., 5, 572–597, 2016.
Government of the Republic of Zambia: The Forest Resources Management
Study for Zambia Teak Forests in South-western Zambia: Final Report. Volume
1. (summary section), in: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources,
Japan International Cooperation Agency, 1996.
Government of the Republic of Zambia, United National Development
Programme, and Global Environment Facility: Formulation of the National
Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change, Ministry of Tourism
Environment and Natural Resources (Ed.), Lusaka, Zambia, 2007.
Grain Research and Development Cooperation: Water Use Efficiency. Fact sheet. Converting rainfall to grain, Southern and western region, Australia, available at: https://grdc.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0029/225686/water-use-efficiency-north.pdf.pdf (last access: 29 September 2019), 2009.
Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Voß, F., Eisner, S., Chen, C., Hagemann, S., and Ludwig, F.: Effects of climate model radiation, humidity and wind estimates on hydrological simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 305–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-305-2012, 2012.
Haxeltine, A. and Prentice, I. C.: BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial
biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource
availability, and competition among plant functional types, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 10, 693–709, 1996.
Hazeleger, W., Wang, X., Severijns, C., Ştefǎnescu, S. S., Bintanja, R.,
Sterl, A., Wyser, K., Semmler, T., Yang, S., Van den Hurk, B., Van Noije,
T., Van der Linden, E., and Van der Wiel, K.: EC-Earth V2.2: description and
validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model, Clim.
Dynam., 39, 2611–2629, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1228-5, 2011.
Hickler, T., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Mjöfors, K., Miller, P., Arneth, A., and Sykes, M. T.: CO2 fertilization in temperate FACE experiments not representative of boreal and tropical forests, Glob. Change Biol., 14, 1531–1542, 2008.
Hoerling, M., Hurrell, J., Eischeid, J., and Phillips, A.: Detection and
Attribution of Twentieth-Century Northern and Southern African Rainfall
Change, J. Climate, 19, 3989–4008, 2006.
Huang, S., Titus, S. J., and Wiens, D. P.: Comparison of nonlinear
height–diameter functions for major Alberta tree species, Can. J. Forest Res., 22, 1297–1304, 1992.
Jungclaus, J. H., Fischer, N., Haak, H., Lohmann, K., Marotzke, J., Matei,
D., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., and Storch, J. S.: Characteristics of the
ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean
component of the MPI-Earth system model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5,
422–446, 2013.
Kampata, J. M., Parida, B. P., and Moalafhi, D. B.: Trend analysis of
rainfall in the headstreams of the Zambezi River Basin in Zambia, Phys. Chem. Earth, 33, 621–625, 2008.
Keenan, T. F., Hollinger, D. Y., Bohrer, G., Dragoni, D., Munger, J. W.,
Schmid, H. P., and Richardson, A. D.: Increase in forest water-use
efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise, Nature, 499,
324–327, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12291, 2013.
Lloyd, J. and Farquhar, G. D.: The carbon dioxide dependence of
photosynthesis, plant growth responses to elevated atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations and their interaction with soil nutrient status. I.
General Principles and Forest Ecosystems, Funct. Ecol., 10, 4–32,
1996.
Magadza, C.: Indications of the effects of climate change on the pelagic
fishery of Lake Kariba, Zambia–Zimbabwe, Lakes & Reservoirs: Research
& Management, 16, 15–22, 2011.
Mark, N., Mike, H., and Phil, J.: Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time
Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly
Terrestrial Climatology, J. Climate, 12, 829–856, 1999.
Matakala, P. W., Misael, K., and Jochen, S.: Zambia National Strategy to
Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+),
Forestry Department, Ministry of Lands Natural Resources and Environmental
Protection, FAO, UNDP, and UNEP, Government of the Republic of
Zambia, Zambia, 2015.
McDowell, N., Barnard, H., Bond, B., Hinckley, T., Hubbard, R., Ishii, H.,
Köstner, B., Magnani, F., Marshall, J., and Meinzer, F.: The
relationship between tree height and leaf area: sapwood area ratio,
Oecologia, 132, 12–20, 2002.
McGuire, A. D. and Joyce, L. A.: Responses of Net Primary Production to
Changes in CO2 and Climate, in: Productivity of America's forests to climate
change, US Department of Agriculture (USDA), USA, 2005.
Melillo, J. M., McGuire, A. D., Kicklighter, D. W., Berrien Moore III,
C. J., Vorosmarty, A., and Schloss, A. L.: Global climate change and
terrestrial net primary production, Nature, 363, 234–240, 1993.
Midgley, G., Greg, H., Wilfried, T., Gill, D., and Wendy, F.: Assessment of
potential climate change impacts on Namibia's floristic diversity, ecosystem
structure and function Climate Change Research Group. South African National
Biodiversity Institute Kirstenbosch Botanical Garden, Rhodes Drive Cape
Town, Windhoek, Namibia, 2005.
Miyashita, K., Tanakamaru, S., Maitani, T., and Kimura, K.: Recovery
responses of photosynthesis, transpiration, and stomatal conductance in
kidney bean following drought stress, Environ. Exp. Bot.,
53, 205–214, 2005.
Mohammed, S., Jun, Z., and Shi, F.: Impacts of climate change on net primary
productivity in Africa continent from 2001 to 2010, International Journal of
Science, Environment and Technology, 7, 365–381, 2018.
Mooney, H. A., Canadell, J., Chapin III, F. S., Ehleringer, J. R.,
Kijrner, C., McMurtrie, R. E., Parton, W. J., Piteka, L. F., and Schulze,
E.-D.: Ecosystem physiology responses to global change, in: The Terrestrial
Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed Ecosystems, edited by:
Walker, B., Steffen, W. L., Canadell, J., and Ingram, J., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 1999.
Mulenga, B. P., Wineman, A., and Sitko, N. J.: Climate trends and farmers'
perceptions of climate change in Zambia, Environ. Manage., 59,
291–306, 2017.
Mulolwa, J. M.: Forestry in Zambia's Western province, in: The Zambezi teak
forests: Proceedings of the first international conference on the teak
forests of Southern Africa, Livingstone, Zambia, 18–24 March 1984,
edited by: Piearce, G. D., Forest Department [etc.], Ndola, 1986.
Musgrave, M. K.: Carbon and the commons in the Zambezi teak (Baikiaea
plurijuga, Harms) forests of western Zambia: sustainable forest management
for commodity and community, PhD Thesis, The University of St Andrews, 2016.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.
New, M., Hewitson, B., Stephenson, D. B., Tsiga, A., Kruger, A., Manhique,
A., Gomez, B., Coelho, C. A. S., Masisi, D. N., Kululanga, E., Mbambalala,
E., Adesina, F., Saleh, H., Kanyanga, J., Adosi, J., Bulane, L., Fortunata,
L., Mdoka, M. L., and Lajoie, R.: Evidence of trends in daily climate
extremes over southern and west Africa, J. Geophys. Res.,
111, D14102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006289, 2006.
Ngoma, J., Moors, E., Kruijt, B., Speer, J. H., Vinya, R., Chidumayo, E. N.,
and Leemans, R.: Below and above-ground carbon distribution along a rainfall
gradient. A case of the Zambezi teak forests, Zambia Acta Oecologica, 87,
45–57, 2018a.
Ngoma, J., Moors, E., Kruijt, B., Speer, J. H., Vinya, R., Chidumayo, E. N.,
and Leemans, R.: Data for developing allometric models and evaluating carbon
stocks of the Zambezi Teak Forests in Zambia, Data in Brief, 17, 1361–1373,
2018b.
Ngoma, J., Moors, E., Speer, J. H., Kruijt, B., Vinya, R., and Leemans, R.:
Forest response to climate change – A review of net primary productivity in
Africa, unpublished data, 2019.
Ngoma, J., Speer, J. H., Vinya, R., Kruijt, B., Moors, E., and Leemans, R.:
The dendrochronological potential of Baikiaea plurijuga in Zambia,
Dendrochronologia, 41, 65–77, 2017.
Niang, I., Ruppel, O. C., Abdrabo, M. A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham,
J., and Urquhart, P.: Africa. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by:
Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J.,
Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B.,
Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L.,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA
1199–1265, 2014.
Pan, S., Dangal, S. R. S., Tao, B., Yang, J., and Tian, H.: Recent patterns
of terrestrial net primary production in Africa influenced by multiple
environmental changes, Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1890/EHS14-0027.1, 2015.
Piani, C., Weedon, G. P., Best, M., Gomes, S. M., Viterbo, P., Hagemann, S.,
and Haerter, J. O.: Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily
precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models, J.
Hydrol., 395, 199–215, 2010.
Piearce, G. D.: How to save the Zambezi teak forests, in: FAO (1986).
Unasylva – No. 152 – Genetics and the forests of the future. An
international journal of the forestry and food industries, FAO – Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, SPECIAL FAO's Forestry
Action Plan, 38 pp., 1986a.
Piearce, G. D.: Properties and end-uses of Zambezi teak, in: The Zambezi
teak forests: proceedings of the first international conference on the teak
forests of Southern Africa, Livingstone, Zambia, 18–24 March 1984, edited by:
Piearce, G. D., Forest Department, Ndola, 1986b.
Piearce, G. D.: The Zambezi teak forests: proceedings of the first
international conference on the teak forests of Southern Africa,
Livingstone, Zambia, 18–24 March 1984, Forest Department, Ndola,
1986c.
PROTA4U: Baikiaea plurijuga Harms, available at: https://www.prota4u.org/database/protav8.asp?g=pe&p=Baikiaea+plurijuga+Harms, last access: 15 December 2017.
RCP Database: RCP Database (Version 2.0.5), available at: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=compare, last access: 11 April 2018.
Reich, P. B., Walters, M. B., and Ellsworth, D. S.: From tropics to tundra:
Global convergence in plant-functioning, P. Natl. Acad
Sci. USA, 94, 13730–13734, 1997.
Reineke, L. H.: Perfecting a stand-density index for even-aged forests,
J. Agric. Res., 46, 627–638, 1933.
Riahi, K., Grübler, A., and Nakicenovic, N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic
and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technol.
Forecast. Soc., 74, 887–935, 2007.
Sarkar, D. and Haldar, A.: Physical and chemical methods in soil analysis,
Fundamental concepts of analysical chemistry and intrumental techniques, New
Age International (P) Limited, Publishers, New Delhi, 2005.
Sarmiento, J. L. and Gruber, N.: Sinks for Anthropogenic carbon, Phys. Today, 55, 30–66, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1510279, 2002.
Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Gerten, D., Sitch, S., Cramer, W., and Prentice,
I. C.: Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate
projections, Climatic Change, 74, 97–122, 2006.
Sileshi, G. W.: A critical review of forest biomass estimation models,
common mistakes and corrective measures, Forest Ecol. Manage., 329,
237–254, 2014.
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W.,
Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and
Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and
terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model,
Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, 2003.
Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., and Sykes, M. T.: Representation of vegetation
dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two
contrasting approaches within European climate space, Global Ecol.
Biogeogr., 10, 621–637, 2001.
Smith, S. J. and Wigley, T. M. L.: Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with the
MiniCAM, Energ. J., 27, 373–391, 2006.
Stern, R. and Cooper, P.: Assessing climate risk and climate change using
rainfall data – a case study from Zambia, Exp. Agr., 47,
241–266, 2011.
Theilade, I., Sekeli, P. M., Hald, S., and Graudal, L. O. V.: Conservation
plan for genetic resources of Zambezi teak (Baikiaea plurijuga) in Zambia,
Danida Forest Seed Centre, DFSC Case Study No. 2, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, 2001.
Thuiller, W., Midgley, G. F., Hughes, G. O., Bomhard, B., Drew, G.,
Rutherford, M. C., and Woodward, F. I.: Endemic species and ecosystem
sensitivity to climate change in Namibia, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 759–776,
2006.
University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, Harris, I. C., and Jones,
P. D.: CRU TS3.23: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version
3.23 of High Resolution Gridded Data of Month-by-month Variation in Climate
(Jan. 1901–Dec. 2014), Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 9 November
2015, https://doi.org/10.5285/4c7fdfa6-f176-4c58-acee-683d5e9d2ed5, 2015.
Voldoire, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Salas y Mélia, D., Decharme, B.,
Cassou, C., Sénési, S., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Alias, A., Chevallier,
M., Déqué, M., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Fernandez, E., Madec, G.,
Maisonnave, E., Moine, M.-P., Planton, S., Saint-Martin, D., Szopa, S.,
Tyteca, S., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Braun, A., Coquart, L., and Chauvin,
F.: The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation,
Clim. Dynam., 40, 2091–2121, 2013.
Walkley, A. and Black, I. A.: An examination of the Degtjareff method for
determining soil organic matter, and a proposed modification of the chromic
acid titration method, Soil Sci., 37, 29–38, 1934.
Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Shuttleworth, W. J., Blyth, E.,
Österle, H., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Best, M.:
Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional
Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 823–848, 2011.
Williams, C. A., Hanan, N. P., Baker, I., Collatz, G. J., Berry, J., and
Denning, A. S.: Interannual variability of photosynthesis across Africa and
its attribution, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 113,
G04015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JG000718, 2008.
Wise, M., Calvin, K. V., Thomson, A. M., Clarke, L. E., Bond-Lamberty, B., Sands, R. D., Smith, S. J., Janetos, A. C., and Edmonds, J.: Implications of Limiting CO2
Concentrations for Land Use and Energy, Science, 324, 1183–1186, 2009.
Wu, Z., Dijkstra, P., Koch, G. W., Peñuelas, J., and Hungate, B. A.:
Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change:
a meta-analysis of experimental manipulation, Glob. Change Biol., 17,
927–942, 2011.
Yu, B. and Chen, F.: The global impact factors of net primary production in
different land cover types from 2005 to 2011, Springer Plus, 5, 1235, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-2910-1, 2016.
Short summary
The Zambezi teak forests are a source of raw material for the timber industry. Through application of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model, we determined the forests' response to climate change at the wetter Kabompo, drier Sesheke, and intermediate Namwala sites in Zambia. While increased CO2 concentration enhances forests' productivity at Kabompo and Namwala, the decreased rainfall will reduce forests' productivity at Sesheke by the year 2099, resulting in reduced raw material for saw millers.
The Zambezi teak forests are a source of raw material for the timber industry. Through...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint