Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 09 Jan 2023
| 09 Jan 2023
Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ecosystem Processes group, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway
Jörg Schwinger
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ingo Bethke
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Jens Hartmann
Institute of Geology, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Emilio Mayorga
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Christoph Heinze
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Related authors
No articles found.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Marit Sandstad, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Stuart Jenkins, Charles Koven, Glen Peters, Roland Séfèrian, Andrew H. MacDougall, Ashwin Seshadri, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Abigail L. S. Swann, Torben Koenigk, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Hongmei Li, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Nadine Mengis, Anastasia Romanou, Lori T. Sentman, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
When humanity stops emitting carbon dioxide, will temperatures keep rising, stabilize, or fall? Our study reveals in most models, temperatures remain nearly stable, but this hides a balance between the warming in response to radiation imbalance, and the cooling due to uptake of carbon in the land and ocean. Understanding this balance helps refine how much more CO2 we can safely emit.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Kjetil Aas, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicolas Bellouin, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Carla F. Berghoff, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Nathan O. Collier, Thomas H. Colligan, Margot Cronin, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Matt P. Enright, Kazutaka Enyo, Michael Erb, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Filippa Fransner, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Bertrand Guenet, Özgür Gürses, Kirsty Harrington, Ian Harris, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Akihiko Ito, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Yawen Kong, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Charles Koven, Taro Kunimitsu, Xin Lan, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhu Liu, Claire Lo Monaco, Lei Ma, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Joe R. Melton, Natalie Monacci, Erwan Monier, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Jens D. Müller, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Lorna R. Nayagam, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nutzel, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Naiqing Pan, Sudhanshu Pandey, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Pierre Regnier, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Ingunn Skjelvan, T. Luke Smallman, Victoria Spada, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Didier Swingedouw, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Xiangjun Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Erik van Ooijen, Guido R. van der Werf, Sebastiaan J. van de Velde, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3211–3288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2025). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Jozef Skákala, Shubha Sathyendranath, Yuri Artioli, Deep S. Banerjee, Heather Bouman, Robert J. W. Brewin, Momme Butenschön, Stefano Ciavatta, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Yanna Fidai, David Ford, Grinson George, Karen Guihou, Bror Jönsson, Marija Bačeković Koloper, Žarko Kovač, Lekshmi Krishnakumary, Gemma Kulk, Charlotte Laufkötter, Gennadi Lessin, Jann Paul Mattern, Angélique Melet, Alexandre Mignot, David Moffat, Fanny Monteiro, Mayra Rodriguez Bennadji, Cécile S. Rousseaux, Ranjini Swaminathan, Osvaldo Ulloa, and Jerry Tjiputra
Ocean Sci., 22, 1457–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1457-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1457-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Marine primary production (PP) is a key component of the Earth's climate system, but its current estimates and future projections are highly uncertain. We review the PP uncertainties and discuss their sources both across the ecosystem and satellite models. We propose to reduce the PP uncertainties by better addressing the PP model structures and parametrizations. We also argue that for many models it is desirable to consider spatial and temporal variability in the model parameter values.
Quentin Dalaiden and Ingo Bethke
The Cryosphere, 20, 2089–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2089-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2089-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Historical Antarctic climate before satellites contain uncertainties, a modern state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis indicates an unrealistically cold Antarctica in 1958–1978. We test how much of this bias comes from uncertain ocean and sea-ice conditions by performing two climate model ensembles with different ocean datasets. These differences affect Antarctic climate, but they explain only a fraction of the cold bias, meaning other factors also contribute.
Arthur Vienne, Patrick Frings, Jet Rijnders, Lucilla Boito, Jens Hartmann, Harun Niron, Reinaldy Poetra, Miguel Portillo Estrada, Tom Reershemius, Laura Steinwidder, Tim Jesper Suhrhoff, and Sara Vicca
SOIL, 12, 421–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-12-421-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-12-421-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores Enhanced Weathering (EW) using basalt rock dust to combat climate change. We treated maize-planted mesocosms with varying basalt amounts and monitored them for 101 d. Surprisingly, we found no significant realized inorganic CO2 removal. However, rock weathering was evident through increased exchangeable bases. While inorganic CO2 removal was not realized within this experiment, basalt amendment may enhance soil health and potentially long-term carbon sequestration.
Abigail L. S. Swann, Charles D. Koven, Cristian Proistosecu, Rosie A. Fisher, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Nancy Y. Kiang, David M. Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Hannah Liddy, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1673, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed simulations from Earth system models (ESM) with a constant rate of emissions, zero emissions, and negative emissions of CO2 to quantify the response of land carbon sinks. We found that under positive emissions vegetation in the tropics gained carbon. Under zero emissions and negative emissions most ESMs lost carbon from vegetation in the tropics but gained carbon in mid- and high-latitudes, mostly in soils. Our findings imply that tropical carbon is vulnerable under zero emissions.
Jörg Schwinger, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Raffaele Bernadello, Momme Butenschön, Timothée Bourgeois, Matthew J. Gidden, Shraddha Gupta, Hanna Lee, Nadine Mengis, Yiannis Moustakis, Helene Muri, Lars Nieradzik, Daniele Peano, Julia Pongratz, Pascal Sauer, Etienne Tourigny, and David Wårlind
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models can simulate CO2 removal by representing the activity that removes CO2 from the atmosphere, e.g. growing bioenergy crops for energy production with CCS or enhancing the surface oceans’ alkalinity. We describe a simulation framework, spanning the modeling chain from integrated assessment to Earth system models, that allows separating the intrinsic efficiency of CDR options from the overall atmospheric CO2 reduction, the latter including the effect of carbon-cycle feedbacks.
Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We reassess the basis for determining the present level of long-term global warming. Unbiased estimates of both realised warming and anthropogenic warming are possible that approximate a 20-year retrospective mean. Our resulting estimates of 1.40 [1.23–1.58] °C (realised) and 1.34 [1.18–1.50] °C (anthropogenic) as at end of 2024 highlight the urgency of immediate, far-reaching and sustained climate mitigation actions if we are to meet the long term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Charly A. Moras, Matias Saez Moreno, Peggy Bartsch, and Jens Hartmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6144, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement has gained popularity to capture carbon dioxide. Yet, most laboratory experiments were run for short term, with strong mixing and without carbon dioxide exchange. In this research, a new setup tried to reproduce a more natural mixing. Overall, alkalinity remained stable for 6 months, thanks to the carbon dioxide invasion which differs from previous research. Hence, potential pitfalls identified in laboratory studies may not be at play in real world application.
Philip J. Wallhead, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Trond Kristiansen, and Richard G. J. Bellerby
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6763–6805, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a novel method to combine ocean data from observations and models, and applied it to produce gridded estimates of nutrients, oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity concentrations at latitudes >40° N and years 1980–2020. The new estimates showed improved accuracy and coverage relative to previous estimates, but highlighted remaining uncertainty in some poorly sampled regions. The work was largely motivated by a need for accurate input data for regional ocean models.
Jens S. Hammes, Jens Hartmann, Johannes A. C. Barth, Tobias Linke, Ingrid Smet, Mathilde Hagens, Philip A. E. Pogge von Strandmann, Tom Reershemius, Bruno Casimiro, Arthur Vienne, Anna A. Stoeckel, Ralf Steffens, and Dirk Paessler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5402, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
To test enhanced weathering's efficacy, we ran a two-year greenhouse study under warm, wet conditions, comparing several rock additives across farm soils. We tracked alkalinity and cation soil pools. Soil type was decisive: acidic, low-buffer soils exported more additional alkalinity, while alkaline or pH neutral soils retained it in cation pools. The results point to where enhanced weathering can deliver durable carbon removal and underscore the need for long, well-controlled trials.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2021–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Chris Smith, Lennart Ramme, Christopher D. Wells, Ada Gjermundsen, Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Timothée Bourgeois, Jörg Schwinger, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Chao Li, and Cecilie Mauritzen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5292, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We run the MPI-ESM1.2-LR and NorESM2-LM climate models in CO2 emissions-driven mode to 2300 for three climate scenarios. For climate overshoot scenarios, there is a large residual warming in the 22nd century in NorESM2-LM, despite negative CO2 emissions, related to Southern Ocean heat release. In both models, while global mean surface temperature is largely reversible, other global and regional climate models exhibit hysteresis and irreversibility.
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1671–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth System Model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty found on the Atlantic side.
Paul Dees, Friederike Fröb, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David G. Johns, and Christoph Heinze
Ocean Sci., 21, 2397–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2397-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2397-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe a novel methodology to automate the estimation of ecological regime shift probability in a single time series. We have applied this new methodology to the continuous plankton recorder dataset in the North Sea and have shown how the model is able to estimate the likelihood of a regime shift using abundance data of multiple phytoplankton and zooplankton species.
Timothée Bourgeois, Giang T. Tran, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Jörg Schwinger, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Thorsten Blenckner, Olivier Torres, Jean Negrel, David P. Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 22, 5435–5462, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
William E. Chapman, Francine Schevenhoven, Judith Berner, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Ping-Gin Chiu, Alok Gupta, and Jesse Nusbaumer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5451–5465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5451-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the first state-of-the-art atmosphere-connected supermodel, where two advanced atmospheric models share information in real time to form a new dynamical system. By synchronizing the models, particularly in storm track regions, we achieve better predictions without losing variability. This approach maintains key climate patterns and reduces bias in some variables compared to traditional models, demonstrating a useful technique for improving atmospheric simulations.
Forrest M. Hoffman, Birgit Hassler, Ranjini Swaminathan, Jared Lewis, Bouwe Andela, Nathaniel Collier, Dóra Hegedűs, Jiwoo Lee, Charlotte Pascoe, Mika Pflüger, Martina Stockhause, Paul Ullrich, Min Xu, Lisa Bock, Felicity Chun, Bettina K. Gier, Douglas I. Kelley, Axel Lauer, Julien Lenhardt, Manuel Schlund, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Katja Weigel, Ed Blockley, Rebecca Beadling, Romain Beucher, Demiso D. Dugassa, Valerio Lembo, Jianhua Lu, Swen Brands, Jerry Tjiputra, Elizaveta Malinina, Brian Mederios, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jeremy Walton, Philip Kershaw, André L. Marquez, Malcolm J. Roberts, Eleanor O’Rourke, Elisabeth Dingley, Briony Turner, Helene Hewitt, and John P. Dunne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2685, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As Earth system models become more complex, rapid and comprehensive evaluation through comparison with observational data is necessary. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require fast analysis. This paper describes a new Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) that was developed for the Assessment Fast Track that will be run at the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) to inform the community about the performance of models.
Damien Couespel, Xabier Davila, Nadine Goris, Emil Jeansson, Siv K. Lauvset, and Jerry Tjiputra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2566, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Remineralised carbon storage is projected to increase along the 21st century, but the magnitude of increase varies depending on the Earth system models. To constrain the projections, we explore the relation between remineralised carbon and circulation in the deep ocean. Comparing model simulations and observations, we show that models overestimate the sensitivity of remineralised carbon storage to circulation slowdown, suggesting an overestimation of the future remineralised carbon increase.
Brendan R. Carter, Jörg Schwinger, Rolf Sonnerup, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jonathan D. Sharp, Larissa M. Dias, and Daniel E. Sandborn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3073–3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3073-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3073-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We infer ocean gas exchange and circulation from ocean tracer measurements and use this to create code to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in the ocean that is there due to human emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere. The code works across the ocean depths for the past, present, or future from information about the location, temperature, and salinity of the seawater. We produce a data product with estimates throughout the ocean throughout the last ~300 and the next ~500 years.
Allanah Joy Paul, Mathias Haunost, Silvan Urs Goldenberg, Jens Hartmann, Nicolás Sánchez, Julieta Schneider, Niels Suitner, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 22, 2749–2766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2749-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is being assessed for its potential to absorb atmospheric CO2 and store it for a long time. OAE still needs comprehensive assessment of its safety and effectiveness. We studied an idealised OAE application in a natural low-nutrient ecosystem over 1 month. Our results showed that biogeochemical functioning remained mostly stable but that the long-term capability for storing carbon may be limited at high alkalinity concentration.
Niels Suitner, Jens Hartmann, Selene Varliero, Giulia Faucher, Philipp Suessle, and Charly A. Moras
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-381, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Alkalinity leakage limits the efficiency of ocean alkalinity enhancement. Drivers of this process remain unquantified, restricting accurate assessments. The induced runaway process can be modeled using surface area and aragonite oversaturation as key factors. This study proposes a framework for improving predictability of alkalinity loss due to runaway precipitation, emphasizing the need for field experiments to validate theoretical models concerning dilution and particle sinking processes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Niels Suitner, Giulia Faucher, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Charly A. Moras, Ulf Riebesell, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 4587–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies described the precipitation of carbonates as a result of alkalinity enhancement in seawater, which could adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches. By conducting experiments in natural seawater, this study observed uniform patterns during the triggered runaway carbonate precipitation, which allow the prediction of safe and efficient local application levels of OAE scenarios.
Shunya Koseki, Lander R. Crespo, Jerry Tjiputra, Filippa Fransner, Noel S. Keenlyside, and David Rivas
Biogeosciences, 21, 4149–4168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4149-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4149-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated how the physical biases of an Earth system model influence the marine biogeochemical processes in the tropical Atlantic. With four different configurations of the model, we have shown that the versions with better SST reproduction tend to better represent the primary production and air–sea CO2 flux in terms of climatology, seasonal cycle, and response to climate variability.
Dennis Booge, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Birgit Quack, and Kirstin Krüger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic bromoform, produced by algae, is an important precursor of atmospheric bromine, highlighting the importance of implementing these emissions in climate models. The simulated mean oceanic concentrations align well with observations, while the mean atmospheric values are lower than the observed ones. Modelled annual mean emissions mostly occur from the sea to the air and are driven by oceanic concentrations, sea surface temperature, and wind speed, which depend on season and location.
Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Matthias Gröger, Jörg Schwinger, Raffaele Bernadello, Etienne Tourigny, Valentina Sicardi, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, and Klaus Wyser
Biogeosciences, 21, 2189–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The timing of the net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic in the period 1750–2100 is investigated using two Earth system models and the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. It is found that, for most of the region, the annual maxima occur progressively earlier, with the most change occurring after the year 2000. Shifts in the seasonality of the primary production may impact the entire ecosystem, which highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in this area.
Annika Nolte, Ezra Haaf, Benedikt Heudorfer, Steffen Bender, and Jens Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1215–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines about 8000 groundwater level (GWL) time series from five continents to explore similarities in groundwater systems at different scales. Statistical metrics and machine learning techniques are applied to identify common GWL dynamics patterns and analyze their controlling factors. The study also highlights the potential and limitations of this data-driven approach to improve our understanding of groundwater recharge and discharge processes.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Erik Askov Mousing, Jerry Tjiputra, and Annette Samuelsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6875–6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an along BGC-Argo track 1D modelling framework. The model physics is constrained by the BGC-Argo temperature and salinity profiles to reduce the uncertainties related to mixed layer dynamics, allowing the evaluation of the biogeochemical formulation and parameterization. We objectively analyse the model with BGC-Argo and satellite data and improve the model biogeochemical dynamics. We present the framework, example cases and routines for model improvement and implementations.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Nele Lehmann, Hugues Lantuit, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jens Hartmann, Antje Eulenburg, and Helmuth Thomas
Biogeosciences, 20, 3459–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riverine alkalinity in the silicate-dominated headwater catchment at subarctic Iskorasfjellet, northern Norway, was almost entirely derived from weathering of minor carbonate occurrences in the riparian zone. The uphill catchment appeared limited by insufficient contact time of weathering agents and weatherable material. Further, alkalinity increased with decreasing permafrost extent. Thus, with climate change, alkalinity generation is expected to increase in this permafrost-degrading landscape.
Mingyang Tian, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, Thorben Amann, Lishan Ran, and Ji-Hyung Park
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-131, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Effective water quality management in the Elbe River from 1984 to 2018 significantly reduced CO2 emissions, particularly after Germany's reunification. Key factors in the reduction include organic carbon removal and nutrient management, with nitrogen control being more critical than phosphorus for the restoration of ecosystem capacity. Unpredictable influxes of organic carbon and the relocation of emissions from wastewater treatment can cause uncertainties for CO2 removals.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Claire Waelbroeck, Jerry Tjiputra, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Eystein Jansen, Natalia Vázquez Riveiros, Samuel Toucanne, Frédérique Eynaud, Linda Rossignol, Fabien Dewilde, Elodie Marchès, Susana Lebreiro, and Silvia Nave
Clim. Past, 19, 901–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-901-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The precise geometry and extent of Atlantic circulation changes that accompanied rapid climate changes of the last glacial period are still unknown. Here, we combine carbon isotopic records from 18 Atlantic sediment cores with numerical simulations and decompose the carbon isotopic change across a cold-to-warm transition into remineralization and circulation components. Our results show that the replacement of southern-sourced by northern-sourced water plays a dominant role below ~ 3000 m depth.
Nadine Goris, Klaus Johannsen, and Jerry Tjiputra
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2095–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections of a high-CO2 future are highly uncertain. A new study provides a novel approach to identifying key regions that dynamically explain the model uncertainty. To yield an accurate estimate of the future North Atlantic carbon uptake, we find that a correct simulation of the upper- and interior-ocean volume transport at 25–30° N is key. However, results indicate that models rarely perform well for both indicators and point towards inconsistencies within the model ensemble.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Jörg Schwinger, Ali Asaadi, Norman Julius Steinert, and Hanna Lee
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1641–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere to compensate for too large past and near-term emissions by using idealized model simulations of overshoot pathways. On a timescale of 100 years, we find a high degree of reversibility if the overshoot size remains small, and we do not find tipping points even for intense overshoots. We caution that current Earth system models are most likely not able to skilfully model tipping points in ecosystems.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Filippa Fransner, Friederike Fröb, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Siv K. Lauvset, Ingunn Skjelvan, Emil Jeansson, Abdirahman Omar, Melissa Chierici, Elizabeth Jones, Agneta Fransson, Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Truls Johannessen, and Are Olsen
Biogeosciences, 19, 979–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean acidification, a direct consequence of the CO2 release by human activities, is a serious threat to marine ecosystems. In this study, we conduct a detailed investigation of the acidification of the Nordic Seas, from 1850 to 2100, by using a large set of samples taken during research cruises together with numerical model simulations. We estimate the effects of changes in different environmental factors on the rate of acidification and its potential effects on cold-water corals.
Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Madlen Kimmritz, Filippa Fransner, Annette Samuelsen, Helene Langehaug, Lea Svendsen, Ping-Gin Chiu, Leilane Passos, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Alok Gupta, Jerry Tjiputra, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Julie Solsvik Vågane, Yuanchao Fan, and Tor Eldevik
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7073–7116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It adds data assimilation capability to the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) and has contributed output to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) as part of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We describe the system and evaluate its baseline, reanalysis and prediction performance.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Cited articles
Alcamo, J., van Vuuren, D., Rosegrant, M., Alder, J., Bennett, E., Lodge, D., Masui, T., Morita, T., Ringler, C., Sala, O., Schulze, K., Zurek, M., Eickhout, B., Maerker, M., and Kok, K.: Changes in ecosystem services and their drivers across the scenarios, in: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Scenarios, edited by: Carpenter, S. R., Pingali, P. L., Bennett, E. M., and Zurek, M. B., Island Press, Washington, 279–354, 2006.
Anderson, L. G., Jutterström, S., Hjalmarsson, S., Wåhlström, I., and Semiletov, I. P.: Out-gassing of CO2 from Siberian Shelf seas by terrestrial organic matter decomposition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040046, 2009.
Arndt, S., Jørgensen, B. B., LaRowe, D. E., Middelburg, J. J., Pancost, R. D., and Regnier, P.: Quantifying the degradation of organic matter in marine sediments: A review and synthesis, Earth-Sci. Rev., 123, 53–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.02.008, 2013.
Assmann, K. M., Bentsen, M., Segschneider, J., and Heinze, C.: An isopycnic ocean carbon cycle model, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 143–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-143-2010, 2010.
Aumont, O., Orr, J. C., Monfray, P., Ludwig, W., Amiotte-Suchet, P., and Probst, J.-L.: Riverine-driven interhemispheric transport of carbon, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 393–405, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GB001238, 2001.
Aumont, O., Ethé, C., Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., and Gehlen, M.: PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015.
Behrenfeld, M. J. and Falkowski, P. G.: Photosynthetic rates derived from satellite-based chlorophyll concentration, Limnol. Oceanogr., 42, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1997.42.1.0001, 1997.
Behrenfeld, M. J., O'Malley, R. T., Siegel, D. A., McClain, C. R., Sarmiento, J. L., Feldman, G. C., Milligan, A. J., Falkowski, P. G., Letelier, R. M., and Boss, E. S.: Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity, Nature, 444, 752–755, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05317, 2006.
Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Drange, H., Roelandt, C., Seierstad, I. A., Hoose, C., and Kristjánsson, J. E.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 687–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, 2013.
Bernard, C. Y., Dürr, H. H., Heinze, C., Segschneider, J., and Maier-Reimer, E.: Contribution of riverine nutrients to the silicon biogeochemistry of the global ocean – a model study, Biogeosciences, 8, 551–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-551-2011, 2011.
Beusen, A. H. W., Bouwman, A. F., Dürr, H. H., Dekkers, A. L. M., and Hartmann, J.: Global patterns of dissolved silica export to the coastal zone: Results from a spatially explicit global model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB0A02, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003281, 2009.
Beusen, A. H. W., Van Beek, L. P. H., Bouwman, A. F., Mogollón, J. M., and Middelburg, J. J.: Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water – description of IMAGE–GNM and analysis of performance, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4045–4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4045-2015, 2015.
Beusen, A. H. W., Bouwman, A. F., Van Beek, L. P. H., Mogollón, J. M., and Middelburg, J. J.: Global riverine N and P transport to ocean increased during the 20th century despite increased retention along the aquatic continuum, Biogeosciences, 13, 2441–2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2441-2016, 2016.
Bianchi, T. S.: The role of terrestrially derived organic carbon in the coastal ocean: A changing paradigm and the priming effect, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 19473–19481, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1017982108, 2011.
Blair, N. E. and Aller, R. C.: The Fate of Terrestrial Organic Carbon in the Marine Environment, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 4, 401–423, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120709-142717, 2011.
Bleck, R. and Smith, L. T.: A wind-driven isopycnic coordinate model of the north and equatorial Atlantic Ocean: 1. Model development and supporting experiments, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 95, 3273–3285, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC095iC03p03273, 1990.
Bleck, R., Rooth, C., Hu, D., and Smith, L. T.: Salinity-driven Thermocline Transients in a Wind- and Thermohaline-forced Isopycnic Coordinate Model of the North Atlantic, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 22, 1486–1505, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1992)022<1486:SDTTIA>2.0.CO;2, 1992.
Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Le Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., and Orr, J. C.: Potential impact of climate change on marine export production, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 81–99, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GB001256, 2001.
Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Cadule, P., Alvain, S., and Gehlen, M.: Response of diatoms distribution to global warming and potential implications: A global model study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023653, 2005.
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013.
Borges, A. V., Delille, B., and Frankignoulle, M.: Budgeting sinks and sources of CO2 in the coastal ocean: Diversity of ecosystems counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023053, 2005.
Bouwman, A. F., Beusen, A. H. W., and Billen, G.: Human alteration of the global nitrogen and phosphorus soil balances for the period 1970–2050, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB0A04, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003576, 2009.
Boyle, E. A., Edmond, J. M., and Sholkovitz, E. R.: The mechanism of iron removal in estuaries, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 41, 1313–1324, https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7037(77)90075-8, 1977.
Cabré, A., Marinov, I., and Leung, S.: Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models, Clim. Dynam., 45, 1253–1280, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2374-3, 2015.
Cai, W.-J.: Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Carbon Paradox: CO2 Sinks or Sites of Terrestrial Carbon Incineration?, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 3, 123–145, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120709-142723, 2010.
Chen, C.-T. A. and Borges, A. V.: Reconciling opposing views on carbon cycling in the coastal ocean: Continental shelves as sinks and near-shore ecosystems as sources of atmospheric CO2, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 56, 578–590, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2009.01.001, 2009.
Chester, R.: The transport of material to the oceans: the river pathway, in: Marine Geochemistry, Springer, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-9488-7_3, 1990.
Chester, R.: The Input of Material to the Ocean Reservoir, in: Marine Geochemistry, Wiley Online Books, 7–10, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118349083.ch2, 2012.
Cotrim da Cunha, L., Buitenhuis, E. T., Le Quéré, C., Giraud, X., and Ludwig, W.: Potential impact of changes in river nutrient supply on global ocean biogeochemistry, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB4007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002718, 2007.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J. F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020.
Dittmar, T., Fitznar, H. P., and Kattner, G.: Origin and biogeochemical cycling of organic nitrogen in the eastern Arctic Ocean as evident from D- and L-amino acids, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 65, 4103–4114, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7037(01)00688-3, 2001.
Doney, S. C.: Plankton in a warmer world, Nature, 444, 695–696, https://doi.org/10.1038/444695a, 2006.
Eiriksdottir, E., Oelkers, E., Hardardóttir, J., and Gislason, S.: The impact of damming on riverine fluxes to the ocean: A case study from Eastern Iceland, Water Res., 113, 124–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2016.12.029, 2016.
Figuères, G., Martin, J. M., and Meybeck, M.: Iron behaviour in the Zaire estuary, Neth. J. Sea Res., 12, 329–337, https://doi.org/10.1016/0077-7579(78)90035-2, 1978.
Frigstad, H., Kaste, Ø., Deininger, A., Kvalsund, K., Christensen, G., Bellerby, R. G. J., Sørensen, K., Norli, M., and King, A. L.: Influence of Riverine Input on Norwegian Coastal Systems, Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, 332, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00332, 2020.
Galy, V., Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B., and Eglinton, T.: Global carbon export from the terrestrial biosphere controlled by erosion, Nature, 521, 204–207, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14400, 2015.
Gao, S.: Supporting material for NorESM study on impact of riverine nutrient and carbon fluxes on future climate projections, NIRD Research Data Archive [data set], https://doi.org/10.11582/2022.00072, 2022.
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2013. Vol. 4: Dissolved Inorganic Nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate), NOAA Atlas NESDIS 76, 25 pp., https://doi.org/10.7289/V5J67DWD, 2013a.
Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Mishonov, A. V., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., and Johnson, D. R.: World Ocean Atlas 2013. Vol. 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 75, 27 pp., https://doi.org/10.7289/V5XG9P2W, 2013b.
Garnier, J., Billen, G., Lassaletta, L., Vigiak, O., Nikolaidis, N. P., and Grizzetti, B.: Hydromorphology of coastal zone and structure of watershed agro-food system are main determinants of coastal eutrophication, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 023005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc777, 2021.
Gharamti, M. E., Tjiputra, J., Bethke, I., Samuelsen, A., Skjelvan, I., Bentsen, M., and Bertino, L.: Ensemble data assimilation for ocean biogeochemical state and parameter estimation at different sites, Ocean Model., 112, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.02.006, 2017.
Hajima, T., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Abe, M., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Okajima, H., Ito, A., Takata, K., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, S., and Kawamiya, M.: Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2197–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, 2020.
Hartmann, J.: Bicarbonate-fluxes and CO2-consumption by chemical weathering on the Japanese Archipelago – Application of a multi-lithological model framework, Chem. Geol., 265, 237–271, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2009.03.024, 2009.
Hedges, J. I., Keil, R. G., and Benner, R.: What happens to terrestrial organic matter in the ocean?, Org. Geochem., 27, 195–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0146-6380(97)00066-1, 1997.
Holland, M. M., Bailey, D. A., Briegleb, B. P., Light, B., and Hunke, E.: Improved Sea Ice Shortwave Radiation Physics in CCSM4: The Impact of Melt Ponds and Aerosols on Arctic Sea Ice, J. Climate, 25, 1413–1430, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00078.1, 2011.
Holmes, R. M., McClelland, J. W., Peterson, B. J., Tank, S. E., Bulygina, E., Eglinton, T. I., Gordeev, V. V., Gurtovaya, T. Y., Raymond, P. A., Repeta, D. J., Staples, R., Striegl, R. G., Zhulidov, A. V., and Zimov, S. A.: Seasonal and Annual Fluxes of Nutrients and Organic Matter from Large Rivers to the Arctic Ocean and Surrounding Seas, Estuar. Coast., 35, 369–382, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-011-9386-6, 2012.
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J. F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P., Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J., and Marshall, S.: The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339–1360, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1, 2013.
Ittekkot, V.: Global trends in the nature of organic matter in river suspensions, Nature, 332, 436–438, https://doi.org/10.1038/332436a0, 1988.
Jakobsson, M.: Hypsometry and volume of the Arctic Ocean and its constituent seas, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 3, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GC000302, 2002.
Kattner, G., Lobbes, J., Fitznar, H., Engbrodt, R., Nöthig, E.-M., and Lara, R.: Tracing dissolved organic substances and nutrients from the Lena River through Laptev Sea (Arctic), Mar. Chem., 65, 25–39, 1999.
Key, R. M., Kozyr, A., Sabine, C. L., Lee, K., Wanninkhof, R., Bullister, J. L., Feely, R. A., Millero, F. J., Mordy, C., and Peng, T. H.: A global ocean carbon climatology: Results from Global Data Analysis Project (GLODAP), Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002247, 2004.
Kirkevåg, A., Iversen, T., Seland, Ø., Hoose, C., Kristjánsson, J. E., Struthers, H., Ekman, A. M. L., Ghan, S., Griesfeller, J., Nilsson, E. D., and Schulz, M.: Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM1-M, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 207–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013, 2013.
Krumins, V., Gehlen, M., Arndt, S., Van Cappellen, P., and Regnier, P.: Dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity fluxes from coastal marine sediments: model estimates for different shelf environments and sensitivity to global change, Biogeosciences, 10, 371–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-371-2013, 2013.
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Lenton, A., Li, H., Lovenduski, N. S., Orr, J. C., Palmieri, J., Santana-Falcón, Y., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, C. A., Tagliabue, A., Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Toyama, K., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Yool, A., and Ziehn, T.: Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections, Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020.
Lacroix, F., Ilyina, T., and Hartmann, J.: Oceanic CO2 outgassing and biological production hotspots induced by pre-industrial river loads of nutrients and carbon in a global modeling approach, Biogeosciences, 17, 55–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, 2020.
Lacroix, F., Ilyina, T., Laruelle, G. G., and Regnier, P.: Reconstructing the Preindustrial Coastal Carbon Cycle Through a Global Ocean Circulation Model: Was the Global Continental Shelf Already Both Autotrophic and a CO2 Sink?, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 35, e2020GB006603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006603, 2021a.
Lacroix, F., Ilyina, T., Mathis, M., Laruelle, G. G., and Regnier, P.: Historical increases in land-derived nutrient inputs may alleviate effects of a changing physical climate on the oceanic carbon cycle, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 5491–5513, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15822, 2021b.
Lalonde, K., Vähätalo, A. V., and Gélinas, Y.: Revisiting the disappearance of terrestrial dissolved organic matter in the ocean: a δ13C study, Biogeosciences, 11, 3707–3719, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3707-2014, 2014.
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D.: An updated observation-based global monthly gridded sea surface pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux product from 1982 through 2015 and its monthly climatology, https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/SPCO2_1982_2015_ETH_SOM_FFN.html (last access: 5 January 2023), 2017.
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 3, M03001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS00045, 2011.
Lee, Y. J., Matrai, P. A., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Saba, V. S., Aumont, O., Babin, M., Buitenhuis, E. T., Chevallier, M., de Mora, L., Dessert, M., Dunne, J. P., Ellingsen, I. H., Feldman, D., Frouin, R., Gehlen, M., Gorgues, T., Ilyina, T., Jin, M., John, J. G., Lawrence, J., Manizza, M., Menkes, C. E., Perruche, C., Le Fouest, V., Popova, E. E., Romanou, A., Samuelsen, A., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Stock, C. A., Tjiputra, J., Tremblay, L. B., Ueyoshi, K., Vichi, M., Yool, A., and Zhang, J.: Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 121, 8635–8669, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011993, 2016.
Le Fouest, V., Babin, M., and Tremblay, J.-É.: The fate of riverine nutrients on Arctic shelves, Biogeosciences, 10, 3661–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3661-2013, 2013.
Le Fouest, V., Manizza, M., Tremblay, B., and Babin, M.: Modelling the impact of riverine DON removal by marine bacterioplankton on primary production in the Arctic Ocean, Biogeosciences, 12, 3385–3402, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3385-2015, 2015.
Le Fouest, V., Matsuoka, A., Manizza, M., Shernetsky, M., Tremblay, B., and Babin, M.: Towards an assessment of riverine dissolved organic carbon in surface waters of the western Arctic Ocean based on remote sensing and biogeochemical modeling, Biogeosciences, 15, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1335-2018, 2018.
Letscher, R. T., Hansell, D. A., Kadko, D., and Bates, N. R.: Dissolved organic nitrogen dynamics in the Arctic Ocean, Mar. Chem., 148, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2012.10.002, 2013.
Liu, D., Bai, Y., He, X., Chen, C.-T. A., Huang, T.-H., Pan, D., Chen, X., Wang, D., and Zhang, L.: Changes in riverine organic carbon input to the ocean from mainland China over the past 60 years, Environ. Int., 134, 105258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105258, 2020.
Liu, X., Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., Lee, M., Shevliakova, E., Malyshev, S., and Milly, P. C. D.: Simulated Global Coastal Ecosystem Responses to a Half-Century Increase in River Nitrogen Loads, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094367, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094367, 2021.
Lobbes, J. M., Fitznar, H. P., and Kattner, G.: Biogeochemical characteristics of dissolved and particulate organic matter in Russian rivers entering the Arctic Ocean, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 64, 2973–2983, 2000.
Ludwig, W., Probst, J.-L., and Kempe, S.: Predicting the oceanic input of organic carbon by continental erosion, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 10, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.1029/95GB02925, 1996.
Mahowald, N. M., Baker, A. R., Bergametti, G., Brooks, N., Duce, R. A., Jickells, T. D., Kubilay, N., Prospero, J. M., and Tegen, I.: Atmospheric global dust cycle and iron inputs to the ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB4025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002402, 2005.
Maier-Reimer, E., Kriest, I., Segschneider, J., and Wetzel, P.: The Hamburg oceanic carbon cycle circulation model HAMOCC5.1 – Technical Description Release 1.1, Tech. Rep. 14, Reports on Earth System Science, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, 2005.
Manizza, M., Follows, M. J., Dutkiewicz, S., Menemenlis, D., McClelland, J. W., Hill, C. N., Peterson, B. J., and Key, R. M.: A model of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C12020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC006998, 2011.
Mann, P. J., Strauss, J., Palmtag, J., Dowdy, K., Ogneva, O., Fuchs, M., Bedington, M., Torres, R., Polimene, L., Overduin, P., Mollenhauer, G., Grosse, G., Rachold, V., Sobczak, W. V., Spencer, R. G. M., and Juhls, B.: Degrading permafrost river catchments and their impact on Arctic Ocean nearshore processes, Ambio, 51, 439–455, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01666-z, 2022.
Mayorga, E., Seitzinger, S. P., Harrison, J. A., Dumont, E., Beusen, A. H. W., Bouwman, A. F., Fekete, B. M., Kroeze, C., and Van Drecht, G.: Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds 2 (NEWS 2): Model development and implementation, Environ. Modell. Softw., 25, 837–853, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.01.007, 2010.
McClelland, J. W., Holmes, R. M., Dunton, K. H., and Macdonald, R. W.: The Arctic Ocean Estuary, Estuar. Coast., 35, 353–368, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-010-9357-3, 2012.
Meybeck, M.: Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus transport by world rivers, Am. J. Sci., 282, 401, https://doi.org/10.2475/ajs.282.4.401, 1982.
Meybeck, M. and Vörösmarty, C.: Global transfer of carbon by rivers, Global Change Newsletter, 37, 18–19, 1999.
Neale, R. B., Richter, J., Park, S., Lauritzen, P. H., Vavrus, S. J., Rasch, P. J., and Zhang, M.: The Mean Climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments, J. Climate, 26, 5150–5168, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00236.1, 2013.
Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Bonan, G. B., Flanner, M. G., Kluzek, E., Lawrence, P. J., Levis, S., Swenson, S. C., Thornton, P. E., Dai, A., Decker, M., Dickinson, R., Feddema, J., Heald, C. L., Hoffman, F., Lamarque, J.-F., Mahowald, N., Niu, G.-Y., Qian, T., Randerson, J., Running, S., Sakaguchi, K., Slater, A., Stockli, R., Wang, A., Yang, Z.-L., Zeng, X., and Zeng, X.: Technical Description of version 4.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM) (No. NCAR/TN-478+STR), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6FB50WZ, 2010.
Pokrovsky, O. S., Manasypov, R. M., Kopysov, S. G., Krickov, I. V., Shirokova, L. S., Loiko, S. V., Lim, A. G., Kolesnichenko, L. G., Vorobyev, S. N., and Kirpotin, S. N.: Impact of Permafrost Thaw and Climate Warming on Riverine Export Fluxes of Carbon, Nutrients and Metals in Western Siberia, Water, 12, 1817, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061817, 2020.
Redfield, A. and Daniel, R. J.: On the proportions of organic derivations in sea water and their relation to the composition of plankton, in: James Johnstone Memorial Volume, University Press of Liverpool, 177–192, 1934.
Regnier, P., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Mackenzie, F. T., Gruber, N., Janssens, I. A., Laruelle, G. G., Lauerwald, R., Luyssaert, S., Andersson, A. J., Arndt, S., Arnosti, C., Borges, A. V., Dale, A. W., Gallego-Sala, A., Goddéris, Y., Goossens, N., Hartmann, J., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Joos, F., LaRowe, D. E., Leifeld, J., Meysman, F. J. R., Munhoven, G., Raymond, P. A., Spahni, R., Suntharalingam, P., and Thullner, M.: Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean, Nat. Geosci., 6, 597–607, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1830, 2013.
Regnier, P., Resplandy, L., Najjar, R. G., and Ciais, P.: The land-to-ocean loops of the global carbon cycle, Nature, 603, 401–410, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04339-9, 2022.
Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K., and Meinshausen, M.: Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 ∘C, Nature, 534, 631–639, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307, 2016.
Sarmiento, J. L., Gruber, N., Brzezinski, M. A., and Dunne, J. P.: High-latitude controls of thermocline nutrients and low latitude biological productivity, Nature, 427, 56–60, 2004.
Séférian, R., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Saint-Martin, D., Voldoire, A., Colin, J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M., Sénési, S., Franchisteguy, L., Vial, J., Mallet, M., Joetzjer, E., Geoffroy, O., Guérémy, J.-F., Moine, M.-P., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Rocher, M., Roehrig, R., Salas-y-Mélia, D., Sanchez, E., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Waldman, R., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Deshayes, J., Éthé, C., and Madec, G.: Evaluation of CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM-ESM2-1: Role of Earth System Processes in Present-Day and Future Climate, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4182–4227, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001791, 2019.
Séférian, R., Berthet, S., Yool, A., Palmiéri, J., Bopp, L., Tagliabue, A., Kwiatkowski, L., Aumont, O., Christian, J., Dunne, J., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Li, H., Long, M. C., Luo, J. Y., Nakano, H., Romanou, A., Schwinger, J., Stock, C., Santana-Falcón, Y., Takano, Y., Tjiputra, J., Tsujino, H., Watanabe, M., Wu, T., Wu, F., and Yamamoto, A.: Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6, Current Climate Change Reports, 6, 95–119, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0, 2020.
Seitzinger, S. P., Mayorga, E., Bouwman, A. F., Kroeze, C., Beusen, A. H. W., Billen, G., Van Drecht, G., Dumont, E., Fekete, B. M., Garnier, J., and Harrison, J. A.: Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB0A08, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003587, 2010.
Shiller, A. M. and Boyle, E. A.: Trace elements in the Mississippi River Delta outflow region: Behavior at high discharge, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 55, 3241–3251, https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7037(91)90486-O, 1991.
Sholkovitz, E. R. and Copland, D.: The coagulation, solubility and adsorption properties of Fe, Mn, Cu, Ni, Cd, Co and humic acids in a river water, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 45, 181–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7037(81)90161-7, 1981.
Skogen, M. D., Hjøllo, S. S., Sandø, A. B., and Tjiputra, J.: Future ecosystem changes in the Northeast Atlantic: a comparison between a global and a regional model system, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 75, 2355–2369, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy088, 2018.
Smith, S. V., Swaney, D. P., Talaue-Mcmanus, L., Bartley, J. D., Sandhei, P. T., McLaughlin, C. J., Dupra, V. C., Crossland, C. J., Buddemeier, R. W., Maxwell, B. A., and Wulff, F.: Humans, Hydrology, and the Distribution of Inorganic Nutrient Loading to the Ocean, BioScience, 53, 235–245, https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0235:HHATDO]2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S. C., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Schneider, B., and Segschneider, J.: Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis, Biogeosciences, 7, 979–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-979-2010, 2010.
Tagliabue, A., Kwiatkowski, L., Bopp, L., Butenschön, M., Cheung, W., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.: Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services, Front. Clim., 3, 738224, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.738224, 2021.
Takahashi, T., Sutherland, S. C., Wanninkhof, R., Sweeney, C., Feely, R. A., Chipman, D. W., Hales, B., Friederich, G., Chavez, F., Sabine, C., Watson, A., Bakker, D. C. E., Schuster, U., Metzl, N., Yoshikawa-Inoue, H., Ishii, M., Midorikawa, T., Nojiri, Y., Körtzinger, A., Steinhoff, T., Hoppema, M., Olafsson, J., Arnarson, T. S., Tilbrook, B., Johannessen, T., Olsen, A., Bellerby, R., Wong, C. S., Delille, B., Bates, N. R., and de Baar, H. J. W.: Climatological mean and decadal change in surface ocean pCO2, and net sea–air CO2 flux over the global oceans, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 56, 554–577, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.009, 2009.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2011.
Terhaar, J., Orr, J. C., Ethé, C., Regnier, P., and Bopp, L.: Simulated Arctic Ocean Response to Doubling of Riverine Carbon and Nutrient Delivery, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 33, 1048–1070, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006200, 2019.
Terhaar, J., Lauerwald, R., Regnier, P., Gruber, N., and Bopp, L.: Around one third of current Arctic Ocean primary production sustained by rivers and coastal erosion, Nat. Commun., 12, 169, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20470-z, 2021.
Tivig, M., Keller, D. P., and Oschlies, A.: Riverine nitrogen supply to the global ocean and its limited impact on global marine primary production: a feedback study using an Earth system model, Biogeosciences, 18, 5327–5350, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5327-2021, 2021.
Tjiputra, J. F., Polzin, D., and Winguth, A. M. E.: Assimilation of seasonal chlorophyll and nutrient data into an adjoint three-dimensional ocean carbon cycle model: Sensitivity analysis and ecosystem parameter optimization, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB1001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002745, 2007.
Tjiputra, J. F., Roelandt, C., Bentsen, M., Lawrence, D. M., Lorentzen, T., Schwinger, J., Seland, Ø., and Heinze, C.: Evaluation of the carbon cycle components in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 301–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, 2013.
Tjiputra, J. F., Schwinger, J., Bentsen, M., Morée, A. L., Gao, S., Bethke, I., Heinze, C., Goris, N., Gupta, A., He, Y.-C., Olivié, D., Seland, Ø., and Schulz, M.: Ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2393–2431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, 2020.
Vancoppenolle, M., Bopp, L., Madec, G., Dunne, J., Ilyina, T., Halloran, P. R., and Steiner, N.: Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20055, 2013.
van der Struijk, L. F. and Kroeze, C.: Future trends in nutrient export to the coastal waters of South America: Implications for occurrence of eutrophication, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB0A09, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003572, 2010.
Van Drecht, G., Bouwman, A. F., Harrison, J., and Knoop, J. M.: Global nitrogen and phosphate in urban wastewater for the period 1970 to 2050, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB0A03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003458, 2009.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Westberry, T., Behrenfeld, M. J., Siegel, D. A., and Boss, E.: Carbon-based primary productivity modeling with vertically resolved photoacclimation, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003078, 2008.
Wild, B., Andersson, A., Bröder, L., Vonk, J., Hugelius, G., McClelland, J. W., Song, W., Raymond, P. A., and Gustafsson, Ö.: Rivers across the Siberian Arctic unearth the patterns of carbon release from thawing permafrost, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 10280–10285, 2019.
Yan, W., Mayorga, E., Li, X., Seitzinger, S. P., and Bouwman, A. F.: Increasing anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine DIN exports from the Changjiang River basin under changing human pressures, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB0A06, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003575, 2010.
Zhang, X., Fang, C., Wang, Y., Lou, X., Su, Y., and Huang, D.: Review of Effects of Dam Construction on the Ecosystems of River Estuary and Nearby Marine Areas, Sustainability, 14, 5974, https://doi.org/10.3390/su14105974, 2022.
Short summary
We assess the impact of riverine nutrients and carbon (C) on projected marine primary production (PP) and C uptake using a fully coupled Earth system model. Riverine inputs alleviate nutrient limitation and thus lessen the projected PP decline by up to 0.7 Pg C yr−1 globally. The effect of increased riverine C may be larger than the effect of nutrient inputs in the future on the projected ocean C uptake, while in the historical period increased nutrient inputs are considered the largest driver.
We assess the impact of riverine nutrients and carbon (C) on projected marine primary production...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint