Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-917-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-917-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Feb 2019
Research article |
| 27 Feb 2019
| 27 Feb 2019
Evaluating the simulated mean soil carbon transit times by Earth system models using observations
Jing Wang
Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research
Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and
Eco-Restoration, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China
Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Jianyang Xia
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research
Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and
Eco-Restoration, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China
Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, Research
Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, East China Normal
University, Shanghai 200241, China
Xuhui Zhou
Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research
Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and
Eco-Restoration, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China
Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, Research
Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, East China Normal
University, Shanghai 200241, China
Kun Huang
Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research
Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and
Eco-Restoration, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China
Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Jian Zhou
Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research
Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and
Eco-Restoration, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China
Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Yuanyuan Huang
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, 91191
Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Lifen Jiang
Center for ecosystem science and society, Northern Arizona University,
Arizona, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Xia Xu
College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University,
Nanjing 210037, China
Junyi Liang
Environmental Sciences Division & Climate Change Science Institute,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830, USA
Ying-Ping Wang
CSIRO Ocean and Atmosphere, PMB 1, Aspendale, Victoria 3195,
Australia
Xiaoli Cheng
Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074,
Hubei Province, China
Center for ecosystem science and society, Northern Arizona University,
Arizona, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing
100084, China
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Jian Zhou, Jianyang Xia, Ning Wei, Yufu Liu, Chenyu Bian, Yuqi Bai, and Yiqi Luo
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The increase of model complexity and data volume challenges the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs), which mainly stems from the untraceable, unautomatic, and high computational costs. Here, we built up an online Traceability analysis system for Model Evaluation (TraceME), which is traceable, automatic and shareable. The TraceME (v1.0) can trace the structural uncertainty of simulated carbon (C) storage in ESMs and provide some new implications for the next generation of model evaluation.
Alexander J. Norton, Peter J. Rayner, Ernest N. Koffi, Marko Scholze, Jeremy D. Silver, and Ying-Ping Wang
Biogeosciences, 16, 3069–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3069-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3069-2019, 2019
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This study presents an estimate of global terrestrial photosynthesis. We make use of satellite chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, a visible indicator of photosynthesis, to optimize model parameters and estimate photosynthetic carbon uptake. This new framework incorporates nonlinear, process-based understanding of the link between fluorescence and photosynthesis, an advance on past approaches. This will aid in the utility of fluorescence to quantify terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks.
Junyi Liang, Gangsheng Wang, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Lianhong Gu, Paul J. Hanson, Jeffrey D. Wood, and Melanie A. Mayes
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1601–1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1601-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1601-2019, 2019
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Soil respiration, the second largest carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and land, is not well represented in global land models. In this study, using long-term observations at a temperate forest, we identified a solution for using better soil water potential simulations to improve predictions of soil respiration in the E3SM land model. In addition, parameter calibration further improved model performance.
Yuanyuan Huang, Mark Stacy, Jiang Jiang, Nilutpal Sundi, Shuang Ma, Volodymyr Saruta, Chang Gyo Jung, Zheng Shi, Jianyang Xia, Paul J. Hanson, Daniel Ricciuto, and Yiqi Luo
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1119–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1119-2019, 2019
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Predicting future changes in ecosystem services is not only highly desirable but is also becoming feasible as several forces are converging to transform ecological research into quantitative forecasting. To realize ecological forecasting, we have developed an Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD) into models. EcoPAD also has the potential to become an interactive tool for resource management, stimulate citizen science in ecology, and transform environmental education.
Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Stefano Manzoni, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yuanyuan Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4779–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4779-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4779-2018, 2018
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Carbon use efficiency (CUE) of decomposers depends strongly on the organic matter quality (C : N ratio) and soil nutrient availability rather than a fixed value. A soil biogeochemical model with flexible CUE can better capture the differences in respiration rate of litter with contrasting C : N ratios and under different levels of mineral N availability than the model with fixed CUE, and well represent the effect of varying litter quality (N content) on SOM formation across temporal scales.
Qianyu Li, Xingjie Lu, Yingping Wang, Xin Huang, Peter M. Cox, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 15, 6909–6925, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, 2018
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Land-surface models have been widely used to predict the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of model mechanisms that govern terrestrial ecosystem responses to rising atmosphere [CO2] is needed. Our study for the first time shows that the expansion of leaf area under rising [CO2] is the most important response for the stimulation of land carbon accumulation by a land-surface model: CABLE. Processes related to leaf area should be better calibrated.
Xingjie Lu, Ying-Ping Wang, Yiqi Luo, and Lifen Jiang
Biogeosciences, 15, 6559–6572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6559-2018, 2018
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How long does C cycle through terrestrial ecosystems is a critical question for understanding land C sequestration capacity under future rising atmosphere [CO2] and climate warming. Under climate change, previous conventional concepts with a steady-state assumption will no longer be suitable for a non-steady state. Our results using the new concept, C transit time, suggest more significant responses in terrestrial C cycle under rising [CO2] and climate warming.
Zhenggang Du, Ensheng Weng, Lifen Jiang, Yiqi Luo, Jianyang Xia, and Xuhui Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4399–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4399-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4399-2018, 2018
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In this study, based on a traceability analysis technique, we evaluated alternative representations of C–N interactions and their impacts on the C cycle using the TECO model framework. Our results showed that different representations of C–N coupling processes lead to divergent effects on plant production, C residence time, and thus the ecosystem C storage capacity. Identifying those effects can help us to improve the N limitation assumptions employed in terrestrial ecosystem models.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Yuanyuan Huang, Yiqi Luo, Ying-Ping Wang, A. Anthony Bloom, Grégoire Broquet, Jens Hartmann, Shushi Peng, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Jordi Sardans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rong Wang, Sönke Zaehle, and Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3903–3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, 2018
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We present a new modeling framework called Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines a data-constrained C-cycle analysis with data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. GOLUM-CNP provides a traceable tool, where a consistency between different datasets of global C, N, and P cycles has been achieved.
Alexander J. Norton, Peter J. Rayner, Ernest N. Koffi, Marko Scholze, Jeremy D. Silver, and Ying-Ping Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-270, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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This study presents a global estimate of land carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We make use satellite chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, a visible indicator of photosynthesis, to optimize model parameters and then use the optimized model to estimate photosynthetic carbon uptake. This provides a new tool that can combine measurements and observations in a systematic way and maximise the use of chlorophyll fluorescence to improve our understanding of the land carbon cycle.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Ye Huang, Bertrand Guenet, Philippe Ciais, Ivan A. Janssens, Jennifer L. Soong, Yilong Wang, Daniel Goll, Evgenia Blagodatskaya, and Yuanyuan Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2111–2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018, 2018
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ORCHIMIC is a modeling effort trying to improve the representation of SOC dynamics in Earth system models (ESM). It has a structure that can be easily incorporated into CENTURY-based ESMs. In ORCHIMIC, key microbial dynamics (i.e., enzyme production, enzymatic decomposition and microbial dormancy) are included. The ORCHIMIC model can also reproduce the observed temporal dynamics of respiration and priming effects; thus it is an improved tool for climate projections and SOC response predictions.
Liming Yan, Xiaoni Xu, and Jianyang Xia
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-124, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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The patterns of the ratio of atmospheric deposited ammonium- to nitrate-N shows an increasing trend with the total N load since the industrial revolution. As a key role of N in plant growth, it is important to know the general response patterns of plant growth to N forms. By the synthesized dataset and meta-analysis, we found a higher response of plant growth to NH4+-N than NO3−-N addition across all species. Our results suggest plant could more positively respond to N deposition in the future.
Yaner Yan, Xuhui Zhou, Lifeng Jiang, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 14, 5441–5454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5441-2017, 2017
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The effects of C turnover time on ecosystem C storage have not been well explored, so we quantified the spatial variation in ecosystem C storage over time from changes in C turnover time and/or NPP. Our results showed that the terrestrial C release caused by the decrease in MTT only accounted for about 13.5 % of that due to the change in NPP uptake. However, the larger uncertainties in the spatial variation of MTT than temporal changes would lead to a greater impact on ecosystem C storage.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gabriel Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Caitlin Moore, Youngryel Ryu, Simon Scheiter, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 14, 4711–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, 2017
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This paper attempts to review some of the current challenges faced by the modelling community in simulating the behaviour of savanna ecosystems. We provide a particular focus on three dynamic processes (phenology, root-water access, and fire) that are characteristic of savannas, which we believe are not adequately represented in current-generation terrestrial biosphere models. We highlight reasons for these misrepresentations, possible solutions and a future direction for research in this area.
Rachel M. Law, Tilo Ziehn, Richard J. Matear, Andrew Lenton, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Lauren E. Stevens, Ying-Ping Wang, Jhan Srbinovsky, Daohua Bi, Hailin Yan, and Peter F. Vohralik
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, 2017
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The paper describes a version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator that has been enabled to simulate the carbon cycle, which is designated ACCESS-ESM1. The model performance for pre-industrial conditions is assessed and land and ocean carbon fluxes are found to be simulated realistically.
Yiqi Luo, Zheng Shi, Xingjie Lu, Jianyang Xia, Junyi Liang, Jiang Jiang, Ying Wang, Matthew J. Smith, Lifen Jiang, Anders Ahlström, Benito Chen, Oleksandra Hararuk, Alan Hastings, Forrest Hoffman, Belinda Medlyn, Shuli Niu, Martin Rasmussen, Katherine Todd-Brown, and Ying-Ping Wang
Biogeosciences, 14, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-145-2017, 2017
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Climate change is strongly regulated by land carbon cycle. However, we lack the ability to predict future land carbon sequestration. Here, we develop a novel framework for understanding what determines the direction and rate of future change in land carbon storage. The framework offers a suite of new approaches to revolutionize land carbon model evaluation and improvement.
Eva A. Kowalczyk, Lauren E. Stevens, Rachel M. Law, Ian N. Harman, Martin Dix, Charmaine N. Franklin, and Ying-Ping Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2771–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2771-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2771-2016, 2016
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This paper compares two ACCESS model versions that differ only in their land surface scheme. Differences in the simulated present-day climate are attributed to differences in the representation of various land surface processes.
Rashid Rafique, Jianyang Xia, Oleksandra Hararuk, Ghassem R. Asrar, Guoyong Leng, Yingping Wang, and Yiqi Luo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 649–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016, 2016
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Traceability analysis was used to diagnose the causes of differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity between two land models: CLMA-CASA and CABLE. Results showed that the simulated ecosystem carbon storage capacity is largely influenced by the photosynthesis parameterization, residence time and organic matter decomposition.
Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Mark Decker, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Jatin Kala, and Ying-Ping Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2403-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2403-2016, 2016
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gab Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko Duursma, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Youngryel Ryu, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 13, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, 2016
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In this study we assess how well terrestrial biosphere models perform at predicting water and carbon cycling for savanna ecosystems. We apply our models to five savanna sites in Northern Australia and highlight key causes for model failure. Our assessment of model performance uses a novel benchmarking system that scores a model’s predictive ability based on how well it is utilizing its driving information. On average, we found the models as a group display only moderate levels of performance.
Junyi Liang, Xuan Qi, Lara Souza, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 13, 2689–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2689-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2689-2016, 2016
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It is unclear how the nitrogen (N) cycle regulates climate change through influencing carbon sequestration. By using meta-analysis, we tested a popular hypothesis, progressive N limitation (PNL), which postulates that greater N sequestration in organisms leads to declining N availability for further plant growth under elevated CO2. Our analyses suggest that extra nitrogen supply by increased biological N fixation and decreased leaching may potentially alleviate PNL.
Y. P. Wang, J. Jiang, B. Chen-Charpentier, F. B. Agusto, A. Hastings, F. Hoffman, M. Rasmussen, M. J. Smith, K. Todd-Brown, Y. Wang, X. Xu, and Y. Q. Luo
Biogeosciences, 13, 887–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-887-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-887-2016, 2016
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Comparing two nonlinear microbial models, we found that,
in response to warming, soil C decreases in one model but can increase or decrease in the other model, and sensitivity of priming response to carbon input increases with soil T in one model but decreases in the other model
Significance: these differences in the responses can be used to discern which model is more realistic, which will improve our understanding of the significance of soil microbial processes in the terrestrial C cycle.
M. G. De Kauwe, S.-X. Zhou, B. E. Medlyn, A. J. Pitman, Y.-P. Wang, R. A. Duursma, and I. C. Prentice
Biogeosciences, 12, 7503–7518, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7503-2015, 2015
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Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitivity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art models currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. Our results indicate that models will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.
J. Kala, M. G. De Kauwe, A. J. Pitman, R. Lorenz, B. E. Medlyn, Y.-P Wang, Y.-S Lin, and G. Abramowitz
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3877–3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3877-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3877-2015, 2015
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We implement a new stomatal conductance scheme within a land surface model coupled to a global climate model. The new model differs from the default in that it allows model parameters to vary by the different plant functional types, derived from global synthesis of observations. We show that the new scheme results in improvements in the model climatology and improves existing biases in warm temperature extremes by up to 10-20% over the boreal forests during summer.
Y. Huang and S. Gerber
Biogeosciences, 12, 6405–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6405-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6405-2015, 2015
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The prediction of the greenhouse gas N2O from natural soils globally is sensitive to the representation of soil water. Factors that regulate nitrogen retention and nitrogen limitation, including fire and biological nitrogen fixation are further influencing the N2O gas production. Responses to warming and CO2 increase are strongly controlled by tropical soils. Therefore extrapolation of mostly extra-tropical field studies the globe warrants caution.
I. C. Prentice, X. Liang, B. E. Medlyn, and Y.-P. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5987–6005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015, 2015
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Land surface models (LSMs) describe how carbon and water fluxes react to environmental change. They are key component of climate models, yet they differ enormously. Many perform poorly, despite having many parameters. We outline a development strategy emphasizing robustness, reliability and realism, none of which is guaranteed by complexity alone. We propose multiple constraints, benchmarking and data assimilation, and representing unresolved processes stochastically, as tools in this endeavour.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
M. G. De Kauwe, J. Kala, Y.-S. Lin, A. J. Pitman, B. E. Medlyn, R. A. Duursma, G. Abramowitz, Y.-P. Wang, and D. G. Miralles
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 431–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-431-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-431-2015, 2015
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Stomatal conductance affects the fluxes of carbon, energy and water between the vegetated land surface and the atmosphere. We test an implementation of an optimal stomatal conductance model within the CABLE land surface model (LSM). The new implementation resulted in a large reduction in the annual fluxes of transpiration across evergreen needleleaf, tundra and C4 grass regions. We conclude that optimisation theory can yield a tractable approach to predicting stomatal conductance in LSMs.
Y. P. Wang, B. C. Chen, W. R. Wieder, M. Leite, B. E. Medlyn, M. Rasmussen, M. J. Smith, F. B. Agusto, F. Hoffman, and Y. Q. Luo
Biogeosciences, 11, 1817–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1817-2014, 2014
J.-F. Exbrayat, A. J. Pitman, Q. Zhang, G. Abramowitz, and Y.-P. Wang
Biogeosciences, 10, 7095–7108, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7095-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7095-2013, 2013
Q. Zhang, A. J. Pitman, Y. P. Wang, Y. J. Dai, and P. J. Lawrence
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-333-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-333-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Terrestrial
Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models
X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X
A 2001–2022 global gross primary productivity dataset using an ensemble model based on the random forest method
Future projections of Siberian wildfire and aerosol emissions
Mechanisms of soil organic carbon and nitrogen stabilization in mineral-associated organic matter – insights from modeling in phase space
Optimizing the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity using carbonyl sulfide (COS) within a two-leaf modeling framework
Modeling integrated soil fertility management for maize production in Kenya using a Bayesian calibration of the DayCent model
Estimates of critical loads and exceedances of acidity and nutrient nitrogen for mineral soils in Canada for 2014–2016 average annual sulphur and nitrogen atmospheric deposition
Understanding and simulating cropland and non-cropland burning in Europe using the BASE (Burnt Area Simulator for Europe) model
When and why microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models can be unstable
The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback
Climate-based prediction of carbon fluxes from deadwood in Australia
Integration of tree hydraulic processes and functional impairment to capture the drought resilience of a semiarid pine forest
The effect of temperature on photosystem II efficiency across plant functional types and climate
Modeling microbial carbon fluxes and stocks in global soils from 1901 to 2016
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and vegetation structural changes contributed to gross primary productivity increase more than climate and forest cover changes in subtropical forests of China
Developing the DO3SE-crop model for Xiaoji, China
Non-steady-state stomatal conductance modeling and its implications: from leaf to ecosystem
Modelled forest ecosystem carbon–nitrogen dynamics with integrated mycorrhizal processes under elevated CO2
A chemical kinetics theory for interpreting the non-monotonic temperature dependence of enzymatic reactions
Representation of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in CMIP6
Using Free Air CO2 Enrichment data to constrain land surface model projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle
Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance
Simulating net ecosystem exchange under seasonal snow cover at an Arctic tundra site
Spatial biases reduce the ability of Earth system models to simulate soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes
Future methane fluxes of peatlands are controlled by management practices and fluctuations in hydrological conditions due to climatic variability
Tropical dry forest response to nutrient fertilization: a model validation and sensitivity analysis
Connecting competitor, stress-tolerator and ruderal (CSR) theory and Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land 5 (LPJmL 5) to assess the role of environmental conditions, management and functional diversity for grassland ecosystem functions
A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction
Can models adequately reflect how long-term nitrogen enrichment alters the forest soil carbon cycle?
Temporal variability of observed and simulated gross primary productivity, modulated by vegetation state and hydrometeorological drivers
Does dynamically modelled leaf area improve predictions of land surface water and carbon fluxes? – Insights into dynamic vegetation modules
Empirical upscaling of OzFlux eddy covariance for high-resolution monitoring of terrestrial carbon uptake in Australia
A modeling approach to investigate drivers, variability and uncertainties in O2 fluxes and O2 : CO2 exchange ratios in a temperate forest
Modeling coupled nitrification–denitrification in soil with an organic hotspot
A new method for estimating carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forest soils for the greenhouse gas inventory of Finland
Enabling a process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model to simulate soil erosion and nutrient losses
Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 1: A mechanistic model simulating the effects of potassium availability on canopy carbon and water fluxes in tropical eucalypt stands
Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 2: CASTANEA-MAESPA-K shows a reduction in photosynthesis rather than a stoichiometric limitation of tissue formation
Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance
Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration
Optimizing the carbonic anhydrase temperature response and stomatal conductance of carbonyl sulfide leaf uptake in the Simple Biosphere model (SiB4)
Exploring environmental and physiological drivers of the annual carbon budget of biocrusts from various climatic zones with a mechanistic data-driven model
Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance
Mapping of ESA's Climate Change Initiative land cover data to plant functional types for use in the CLASSIC land model
Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies
Effect of droughts and climate change on future soil weathering rates in Sweden
Information content in time series of litter decomposition studies and the transit time of litter in arid lands
Long-term changes of nitrogen leaching and the contributions of terrestrial nutrient sources to lake eutrophication dynamics on the Yangtze Plain of China
Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations
Kamal Nyaupane, Umakant Mishra, Feng Tao, Kyongmin Yeo, William J. Riley, Forrest M. Hoffman, and Sagar Gautam
Biogeosciences, 21, 5173–5183, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, 2024
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Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Using machine learning, we develop and compare predictive relationships in observations (Obs) and ESMs. We find different relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks in Obs and ESMs. SOC prediction in ESMs may be improved by representing the functional relationships of environmental controllers in a way consistent with observations.
Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Ulrich Weber, Kimberly Novick, Nina Buchmann, Mirco Migliavacca, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ladislav Šigut, Andreas Ibrom, Dario Papale, Mathias Göckede, Gregory Duveiller, Alexander Knohl, Lukas Hörtnagl, Russell L. Scott, Weijie Zhang, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, Markus Reichstein, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Jonas Ardö, Maarten Op de Beeck, Dave Billesbach, David Bowling, Rosvel Bracho, Christian Brümmer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Shiping Chen, Jamie Rose Cleverly, Ankur Desai, Gang Dong, Tarek S. El-Madany, Eugenie Susanne Euskirchen, Iris Feigenwinter, Marta Galvagno, Giacomo A. Gerosa, Bert Gielen, Ignacio Goded, Sarah Goslee, Christopher Michael Gough, Bernard Heinesch, Kazuhito Ichii, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Anne Klosterhalfen, Sara Knox, Hideki Kobayashi, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Mika Korkiakoski, Ivan Mammarella, Mana Gharun, Riccardo Marzuoli, Roser Matamala, Stefan Metzger, Leonardo Montagnani, Giacomo Nicolini, Thomas O'Halloran, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Borja Ruiz Reverter, Marilyn Roland, Simone Sabbatini, Torsten Sachs, Marius Schmidt, Christopher R. Schwalm, Ankit Shekhar, Richard Silberstein, Maria Lucia Silveira, Donatella Spano, Torbern Tagesson, Gianluca Tramontana, Carlo Trotta, Fabio Turco, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Domenico Vitale, Enrique R. Vivoni, Yi Wang, William Woodgate, Enrico A. Yepez, Junhui Zhang, Donatella Zona, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 21, 5079–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, 2024
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The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand because it impacts our lives. Here, we outline a method called FLUXCOM-X to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from sites around the world. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.
Xin Chen, Tiexi Chen, Xiaodong Li, Yuanfang Chai, Shengjie Zhou, Renjie Guo, and Jie Dai
Biogeosciences, 21, 4285–4300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4285-2024, 2024
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We provide an ensemble-model-based GPP dataset (ERF_GPP) that explains 85.1 % of the monthly variation in GPP across 170 sites, which is higher than other GPP estimate models. In addition, ERF_GPP improves the phenomenon of “high-value underestimation and low-value overestimation” in GPP estimation to some extent. Overall, ERF_GPP provides a more reliable estimate of global GPP and will facilitate further development of carbon cycle research.
Reza Kusuma Nurrohman, Tomomichi Kato, Hideki Ninomiya, Lea Végh, Nicolas Delbart, Tatsuya Miyauchi, Hisashi Sato, Tomohiro Shiraishi, and Ryuichi Hirata
Biogeosciences, 21, 4195–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024, 2024
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SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) was integrated into a spatially explicit individual-based dynamic global vegetation model to improve the accuracy of depicting Siberian forest fire frequency, intensity, and extent. Fires showed increased greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions in 2006–2100 for Representative Concentration Pathways. This study contributes to understanding fire dynamics, land ecosystem–climate interactions, and global material cycles under the threat of escalating fires.
Stefano Manzoni and M. Francesca Cotrufo
Biogeosciences, 21, 4077–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4077-2024, 2024
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Organic carbon and nitrogen are stabilized in soils via microbial assimilation and stabilization of necromass (in vivo pathway) or via adsorption of the products of extracellular decomposition (ex vivo pathway). Here we use a diagnostic model to quantify which stabilization pathway is prevalent using data on residue-derived carbon and nitrogen incorporation in mineral-associated organic matter. We find that the in vivo pathway is dominant in fine-textured soils with low organic matter content.
Huajie Zhu, Xiuli Xing, Mousong Wu, Weimin Ju, and Fei Jiang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3735–3760, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3735-2024, 2024
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Ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes were employed to optimize GPP estimation across ecosystems with the Biosphere-atmosphere Exchange Process Simulator (BEPS), which was developed for simulating the canopy COS uptake under its state-of-the-art two-leaf modeling framework. Our results showcased the efficacy of COS in improving model prediction and reducing prediction uncertainty of GPP and enhanced insights into the sensitivity, identifiability, and interactions of parameters related to COS.
Moritz Laub, Magdalena Necpalova, Marijn Van de Broek, Marc Corbeels, Samuel Mathu Ndungu, Monicah Wanjiku Mucheru-Muna, Daniel Mugendi, Rebecca Yegon, Wycliffe Waswa, Bernard Vanlauwe, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 21, 3691–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, 2024
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We used the DayCent model to assess the potential impact of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) on maize production, soil fertility, and greenhouse gas emission in Kenya. After adjustments, DayCent represented measured mean yields and soil carbon stock changes well and N2O emissions acceptably. Our results showed that soil fertility losses could be reduced but not completely eliminated with ISFM and that, while N2O emissions increased with ISFM, emissions per kilogram yield decreased.
Hazel Cathcart, Julian Aherne, Michael D. Moran, Verica Savic-Jovcic, Paul A. Makar, and Amanda Cole
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2371, 2024
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Deposition from sulfur and nitrogen pollution can harm ecosystems, and recovery from this type of pollution can take decades or longer. To identify risk to Canadian soils, we created maps showing sensitivity to sulfur and nitrogen pollution. Results show that some ecosystems are at risk from acid and nutrient nitrogen deposition; 10 % of protected areas are receiving acid deposition beyond their damage threshold and 70 % may be receiving nitrogen deposition that could cause biodiversity loss.
Matthew Forrest, Jessica Hetzer, Maik Billing, Simon P. K. Bowring, Eric Kosczor, Luke Oberhagemann, Oliver Perkins, Dan Warren, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Kirsten Thonicke, and Thomas Hickler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1973, 2024
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Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe but drivers of fire are not well understood, especially across different land cover types. We used statistical models with satellite data, climate data and socioeconomic data to determine what affects burning in cropland and non-cropland area Europe. We found different drivers of burning in cropland burning vs non-cropland, to the point that some variable, e.g. population density, had completely the opposite effects.
Erik Schwarz, Samia Ghersheen, Salim Belyazid, and Stefano Manzoni
Biogeosciences, 21, 3441–3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024, 2024
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The occurrence of unstable equilibrium points (EPs) could impede the applicability of microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models. For archetypal model versions we identify when instability can occur and describe mathematical conditions to avoid such unstable EPs. We discuss implications for further model development, highlighting the important role of considering basic ecological principles to ensure biologically meaningful models.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, and Libo Wang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3339–3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, 2024
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Terrestrial biosphere models can either prescribe the geographical distribution of biomes or simulate them dynamically, capturing climate-change-driven biome shifts. We isolate and examine the differences between these different land cover implementations. We find that the simulated terrestrial carbon sink at the end of the 21st century is twice as large in simulations with dynamic land cover than in simulations with prescribed land cover due to important range shifts in the Arctic and Amazon.
Elizabeth S. Duan, Luciana Chavez Rodriguez, Nicole Hemming-Schroeder, Baptiste Wijas, Habacuc Flores-Moreno, Alexander W. Cheesman, Lucas A. Cernusak, Michael J. Liddell, Paul Eggleton, Amy E. Zanne, and Steven D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 21, 3321–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024, 2024
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Understanding the link between climate and carbon fluxes is crucial for predicting how climate change will impact carbon sinks. We estimated carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from deadwood in tropical Australia using wood moisture content and temperature. Our model predicted that the majority of deadwood carbon is released as CO2, except when termite activity is detected. Future models should also incorporate wood traits, like species and chemical composition, to better predict fluxes.
Daniel Nadal-Sala, Rüdiger Grote, David Kraus, Uri Hochberg, Tamir Klein, Yael Wagner, Fedor Tatarinov, Dan Yakir, and Nadine K. Ruehr
Biogeosciences, 21, 2973–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2973-2024, 2024
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A hydraulic model approach is presented that can be added to any physiologically based ecosystem model. Simulated plant water potential triggers stomatal closure, photosynthesis decline, root–soil resistance increases, and sapwood and foliage senescence. The model has been evaluated at an extremely dry site stocked with Aleppo pine and was able to represent gas exchange, soil water content, and plant water potential. The model also responded realistically regarding leaf senescence.
Patrick Neri, Lianhong Gu, and Yang Song
Biogeosciences, 21, 2731–2758, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2731-2024, 2024
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A first-of-its-kind global-scale model of temperature resilience and tolerance of photosystem II maximum quantum yield informs how plants maintain their efficiency of converting light energy to chemical energy for photosynthesis under temperature changes. Our finding explores this variation across plant functional types and habitat climatology, highlighting diverse temperature response strategies and a method to improve global-scale photosynthesis modeling under climate change.
Liyuan He, Jorge L. Mazza Rodrigues, Melanie A. Mayes, Chun-Ta Lai, David A. Lipson, and Xiaofeng Xu
Biogeosciences, 21, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2313-2024, 2024
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Soil microbes are the driving engine for biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients. This study applies a microbial-explicit model to quantify bacteria and fungal biomass carbon in soils from 1901 to 2016. Results showed substantial increases in bacterial and fungal biomass carbon over the past century, jointly influenced by vegetation growth and soil temperature and moisture. This pioneering century-long estimation offers crucial insights into soil microbial roles in global carbon cycling.
Tao Chen, Félicien Meunier, Marc Peaucelle, Guoping Tang, Ye Yuan, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 21, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, 2024
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Chinese subtropical forest ecosystems are an extremely important component of global forest ecosystems and hence crucial for the global carbon cycle and regional climate change. However, there is still great uncertainty in the relationship between subtropical forest carbon sequestration and its drivers. We provide first quantitative estimates of the individual and interactive effects of different drivers on the gross primary productivity changes of various subtropical forest types in China.
Pritha Pande, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Jo Cook, Zhaozhong Feng, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-694, 2024
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The DO3SE-crop model extends the DO3SE to simulate ozone's impact on crops with modules for ozone uptake, damage, and crop growth from JULES-Crop. It's versatile, suits China's varied agriculture, and improves yield predictions under ozone stress. It is essential for policy, water management, and climate response, it integrates into Earth System Models for a comprehensive understanding of agriculture's interaction with global systems.
Ke Liu, Yujie Wang, Troy S. Magney, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 21, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1501-2024, 2024
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Stomata are pores on leaves that regulate gas exchange between plants and the atmosphere. Existing land models unrealistically assume stomata can jump between steady states when the environment changes. We implemented dynamic modeling to predict gradual stomatal responses at different scales. Results suggested that considering this effect on plant behavior patterns in diurnal cycles was important. Our framework also simplified simulations and can contribute to further efficiency improvements.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
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Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 21, 1061–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, 2024
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A chemical kinetics theory is proposed to explain the non-monotonic relationship between temperature and biochemical rates. It incorporates the observed thermally reversible enzyme denaturation that is ensured by the ceaseless thermal motion of molecules and ions in an enzyme solution and three well-established theories: (1) law of mass action, (2) diffusion-limited chemical reaction theory, and (3) transition state theory.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-277, 2024
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This study investigates present day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with nitrogen cycle is found, as well as only small differences between emission and concentration based simulations. Thus, we recommend the use of emission driven simulations in CMIP7 as default setup, and to view the nitrogen cycle as a necessary part of all future carbon cycle models.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
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Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Kelsey T. Foster, Wu Sun, Yoichi P. Shiga, Jiafu Mao, and Anna M. Michalak
Biogeosciences, 21, 869–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-869-2024, 2024
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Assessing agreement between bottom-up and top-down methods across spatial scales can provide insights into the relationship between ensemble spread (difference across models) and model accuracy (difference between model estimates and reality). We find that ensemble spread is unlikely to be a good indicator of actual uncertainty in the North American carbon balance. However, models that are consistent with atmospheric constraints show stronger agreement between top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
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We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
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Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Vilna Tyystjärvi, Tiina Markkanen, Leif Backman, Maarit Raivonen, Antti Leppänen, Xuefei Li, Paavo Ojanen, Kari Minkkinen, Roosa Hautala, Mikko Peltoniemi, Jani Anttila, Raija Laiho, Annalea Lohila, Raisa Mäkipää, and Tuula Aalto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3037, 2024
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Drainage of boreal peatlands strongly influences soil methane fluxes with important implications to their climatic impacts. Here we simulate methane fluxes in forestry-drained and restored peatlands during the 21st century. We found that restoration turned peatlands to a source of methane but the magnitude varied regionally. In forests, changes in water table level influenced methane fluxes and in general, the sink was weaker under rotational forestry compared to continuous cover forestry.
Shuyue Li, Bonnie Waring, Jennifer Powers, and David Medvigy
Biogeosciences, 21, 455–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, 2024
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We used an ecosystem model to simulate primary production of a tropical forest subjected to 3 years of nutrient fertilization. Simulations parameterized such that relative allocation to fine roots increased with increasing soil phosphorus had leaf, wood, and fine root production consistent with observations. However, these simulations seemed to over-allocate to fine roots on multidecadal timescales, affecting aboveground biomass. Additional observations across timescales would benefit models.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Joe R. McNorton and Francesca Di Giuseppe
Biogeosciences, 21, 279–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024, 2024
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Wildfires have wide-ranging consequences for local communities, air quality and ecosystems. Vegetation amount and moisture state are key components to forecast wildfires. We developed a combined model and satellite framework to characterise vegetation, including the type of fuel, whether it is alive or dead, and its moisture content. The daily data is at high resolution globally (~9 km). Our characteristics correlate with active fire data and can inform fire danger and spread modelling efforts.
Brooke A. Eastman, William R. Wieder, Melannie D. Hartman, Edward R. Brzostek, and William T. Peterjohn
Biogeosciences, 21, 201–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-201-2024, 2024
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We compared soil model performance to data from a long-term nitrogen addition experiment in a forested ecosystem. We found that in order for soil carbon models to accurately predict future forest carbon sequestration, two key processes must respond dynamically to nitrogen availability: (1) plant allocation of carbon to wood versus roots and (2) rates of soil organic matter decomposition. Long-term experiments can help improve our predictions of the land carbon sink and its climate impact.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
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The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Sven Armin Westermann, Anke Hildebrandt, Souhail Bousetta, and Stephan Thober
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2101, 2023
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Plants at the land surface mediates between soil and atmosphere regarding water and carbon transport. Since plant growth is a dynamic process, models need to care for this dynamics. Here, two models which predict water and carbon fluxes by considering plant temporal evolution were tested against observational data. Currently, dynamizing plants in these models did not enhance their representativeness which is caused by a mismatch between implemented physical relations and observable connections.
Chad A. Burton, Luigi J. Renzullo, Sami W. Rifai, and Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4109–4134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, 2023
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Australia's land-based ecosystems play a critical role in controlling the variability in the global land carbon sink. However, uncertainties in the methods used for quantifying carbon fluxes limit our understanding. We develop high-resolution estimates of Australia's land carbon fluxes using machine learning methods and find that Australia is, on average, a stronger carbon sink than previously thought and that the seasonal dynamics of the fluxes differ from those described by other methods.
Yuan Yan, Anne Klosterhalfen, Fernando Moyano, Matthias Cuntz, Andrew C. Manning, and Alexander Knohl
Biogeosciences, 20, 4087–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, 2023
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A better understanding of O2 fluxes, their exchange ratios with CO2 and their interrelations with environmental conditions would provide further insights into biogeochemical ecosystem processes. We, therefore, used the multilayer canopy model CANVEG to simulate and analyze the flux exchange for our forest study site for 2012–2016. Based on these simulations, we further successfully tested the application of various micrometeorological methods and the prospects of real O2 flux measurements.
Jie Zhang, Elisabeth Larsen Kolstad, Wenxin Zhang, Iris Vogeler, and Søren O. Petersen
Biogeosciences, 20, 3895–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3895-2023, 2023
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Manure application to agricultural land often results in large and variable N2O emissions. We propose a model with a parsimonious structure to investigate N transformations around such N2O hotspots. The model allows for new detailed insights into the interactions between transport and microbial activities regarding N2O emissions in heterogeneous soil environments. It highlights the importance of solute diffusion to N2O emissions from such hotspots which are often ignored by process-based models.
Jukka Alm, Antti Wall, Jukka-Pekka Myllykangas, Paavo Ojanen, Juha Heikkinen, Helena M. Henttonen, Raija Laiho, Kari Minkkinen, Tarja Tuomainen, and Juha Mikola
Biogeosciences, 20, 3827–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023, 2023
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In Finland peatlands cover one-third of land area. For half of those, with 4.3 Mha being drained for forestry, Finland reports sinks and sources of greenhouse gases in forest lands on organic soils following its UNFCCC commitment. We describe a new method for compiling soil CO2 balance that follows changes in tree volume, tree harvests and temperature. An increasing trend of emissions from 1.4 to 7.9 Mt CO2 was calculated for drained peatland forest soils in Finland for 1990–2021.
Siqi Li, Bo Zhu, Xunhua Zheng, Pengcheng Hu, Shenghui Han, Jihui Fan, Tao Wang, Rui Wang, Kai Wang, Zhisheng Yao, Chunyan Liu, Wei Zhang, and Yong Li
Biogeosciences, 20, 3555–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3555-2023, 2023
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Physical soil erosion and particulate carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus loss modules were incorporated into the process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model CNMM-DNDC to realize the accurate simulation of water-induced erosion and subsequent particulate nutrient losses at high spatiotemporal resolution.
Ivan Cornut, Nicolas Delpierre, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, Otavio Campoe, Jose Luiz Stape, Vitoria Fernanda Santos, and Guerric le Maire
Biogeosciences, 20, 3093–3117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, 2023
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Potassium is an essential element for living organisms. Trees are dependent upon this element for certain functions that allow them to build their trunks using carbon dioxide. Using data from experiments in eucalypt plantations in Brazil and a simplified computer model of the plantations, we were able to investigate the effect that a lack of potassium can have on the production of wood. Understanding nutrient cycles is useful to understand the response of forests to environmental change.
Ivan Cornut, Guerric le Maire, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, and Nicolas Delpierre
Biogeosciences, 20, 3119–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, 2023
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After simulating the effects of low levels of potassium on the canopy of trees and the uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by leaves in Part 1, here we tried to simulate the way the trees use the carbon they have acquired and the interaction with the potassium cycle in the tree. We show that the effect of low potassium on the efficiency of the trees in acquiring carbon is enough to explain why they produce less wood when they are in soils with low levels of potassium.
Xiaojuan Yang, Peter Thornton, Daniel Ricciuto, Yilong Wang, and Forrest Hoffman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2813–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, 2023
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We evaluated the performance of a land surface model (ELMv1-CNP) that includes both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) limitation on carbon cycle processes. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. We show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation. Our study suggests that introduction of P limitation in land surface models is likely to have substantial consequences for projections of future carbon uptake.
Kevin R. Wilcox, Scott L. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, William Pockman, Zheng Shi, Melinda D. Smith, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 20, 2707–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, 2023
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The capacity for carbon storage (C capacity) is an attribute that determines how ecosystems store carbon in the future. Here, we employ novel data–model integration techniques to identify the carbon capacity of six grassland sites spanning the US Great Plains. Hot and dry sites had low C capacity due to less plant growth and high turnover of soil C, so they may be a C source in the future. Alternately, cooler and wetter ecosystems had high C capacity, so these systems may be a future C sink.
Ara Cho, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Richard Wehr, and Maarten C. Krol
Biogeosciences, 20, 2573–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2573-2023, 2023
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Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is a useful constraint for estimating photosynthesis. To simulate COS leaf flux better in the SiB4 model, we propose a novel temperature function for enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity and optimize conductances using observations. The optimal activity of CA occurs below 40 °C, and Ball–Woodrow–Berry parameters are slightly changed. These reduce/increase uptakes in the tropics/higher latitudes and contribute to resolving discrepancies in the COS global budget.
Yunyao Ma, Bettina Weber, Alexandra Kratz, José Raggio, Claudia Colesie, Maik Veste, Maaike Y. Bader, and Philipp Porada
Biogeosciences, 20, 2553–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, 2023
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We found that the modelled annual carbon balance of biocrusts is strongly affected by both the environment (mostly air temperature and CO2 concentration) and physiology, such as temperature response of respiration. However, the relative impacts of these drivers vary across regions with different climates. Uncertainty in driving factors may lead to unrealistic carbon balance estimates, particularly in temperate climates, and may be explained by seasonal variation of physiology due to acclimation.
Alexander J. Norton, A. Anthony Bloom, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Paul A. Levine, Shuang Ma, Renato K. Braghiere, and T. Luke Smallman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2455–2484, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, 2023
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This study explores how the representation of leaf phenology affects our ability to predict changes to the carbon balance of land ecosystems. We calibrate a new leaf phenology model against a diverse range of observations at six forest sites, showing that it improves the predictive capability of the processes underlying the ecosystem carbon balance. We then show how changes in temperature and rainfall affect the ecosystem carbon balance with this new model.
Libo Wang, Vivek K. Arora, Paul Bartlett, Ed Chan, and Salvatore R. Curasi
Biogeosciences, 20, 2265–2282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, 2023
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Plant functional types (PFTs) are groups of plant species used to represent vegetation distribution in land surface models. There are large uncertainties associated with existing methods for mapping land cover datasets to PFTs. This study demonstrates how fine-resolution tree cover fraction and land cover datasets can be used to inform the PFT mapping process and reduce the uncertainties. The proposed largely objective method makes it easier to implement new land cover products in models.
Jennifer A. Holm, David M. Medvigy, Benjamin Smith, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Claus Beier, Mikhail Mishurov, Xiangtao Xu, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Craig D. Allen, Klaus S. Larsen, Yiqi Luo, Cari Ficken, William T. Pockman, William R. L. Anderegg, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 20, 2117–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, 2023
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Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Veronika Kronnäs, Klas Lucander, Giuliana Zanchi, Nadja Stadlinger, Salim Belyazid, and Cecilia Akselsson
Biogeosciences, 20, 1879–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1879-2023, 2023
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In a future climate, extreme droughts might become more common. Climate change and droughts can have negative effects on soil weathering and plant health.
In this study, climate change effects on weathering were studied on sites in Sweden using the model ForSAFE, a climate change scenario and an extreme drought scenario. The modelling shows that weathering is higher during summer and increases with global warming but that weathering during drought summers can become as low as winter weathering.
Agustín Sarquis and Carlos A. Sierra
Biogeosciences, 20, 1759–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, 2023
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Although plant litter is chemically and physically heterogenous and undergoes multiple transformations, models that represent litter dynamics often ignore this complexity. We used a multi-model inference framework to include information content in litter decomposition datasets and studied the time it takes for litter to decompose as measured by the transit time. In arid lands, the median transit time of litter is about 3 years and has a negative correlation with mean annual temperature.
Qi Guan, Jing Tang, Lian Feng, Stefan Olin, and Guy Schurgers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, 2023
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Understanding terrestrial sources of nitrogen is vital to examine lake eutrophication changes. Combining process-based ecosystem modeling and satellite observations, we found that land-leached nitrogen in the Yangtze Plain significantly increased from 1979 to 2018, and terrestrial nutrient sources were positively correlated with eutrophication trends observed in most lakes, demonstrating the necessity of sustainable nitrogen management to control eutrophication.
Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023
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The behaviour of natural systems is now very often represented through mathematical models. These models represent our understanding of how nature works. Of course, nature does not care about our understanding. Since our understanding is not perfect, evaluating models is challenging, and there are uncertainties. This paper illustrates this uncertainty for land models and argues that evaluating models in light of the uncertainty in various components provides useful information.
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Short summary
Soil is critical in mitigating climate change mainly because soil carbon turns over much slower in soils than vegetation and the atmosphere. However, Earth system models (ESMs) have large uncertainty in simulating carbon dynamics due to their biased estimation of soil carbon transit time (τsoil). Here, the τsoil estimates from 12 ESMs that participated in CMIP5 were evaluated by a database of measured τsoil. We detected a large spatial variation in measured τsoil across the globe.
Soil is critical in mitigating climate change mainly because soil carbon turns over much slower...
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