Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
22 Apr 2022
Research article
| 22 Apr 2022
Assessing the impacts of agricultural managements on soil carbon stocks, nitrogen loss, and crop production – a modelling study in eastern Africa
Jianyong Ma et al.
Related authors
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
David Martín Belda, Peter Anthoni, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-1, 2022
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modeled vegetation processes. The modeled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 22 sites from the FLUXNET network.
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Adrian Gustafson, Paul A. Miller, Robert G. Björk, Stefan Olin, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 6329–6347, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-287, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-287, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water and mortality and climate with increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty, but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Abigail Snyder, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Karina Williams, Ziwei Wang, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yields will be critical for global food security in the next century. The models often used to study the how climate change may impact agriculture are complex and costly to run. In this work, we describe a set of global crop model emulators (simplified models) developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. Crop model emulators make agricultural simulations more accessible to policy or decision makers.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Stephen J. Harris, Jesper Liisberg, Longlong Xia, Jing Wei, Kerstin Zeyer, Longfei Yu, Matti Barthel, Benjamin Wolf, Bryce F. J. Kelly, Dioni I. Cendón, Thomas Blunier, Johan Six, and Joachim Mohn
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2797–2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2797-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2797-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The latest commercial laser spectrometers have the potential to revolutionize N2O isotope analysis. However, to do so, they must be able to produce trustworthy data. Here, we test the performance of widely used laser spectrometers for ambient air applications and identify instrument-specific dependencies on gas matrix and trace gas concentrations. We then provide a calibration workflow to facilitate the operation of these instruments in order to generate reproducible and accurate data.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Sam S. Rabin, Peter Alexander, Roslyn Henry, Peter Anthoni, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Mark Rounsevell, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and population growth, and how the resulting adaptations will affect aspects of the Earth system upon which humanity depends. We found that the impacts of land use and management can have stronger impacts than climate change on some such
ecosystem services. The overall impacts are strongest in future scenarios with more severe climate change, high population growth, and/or resource-intensive lifestyles.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Martina Franz, Rocio Alonso, Almut Arneth, Patrick Büker, Susana Elvira, Giacomo Gerosa, Lisa Emberson, Zhaozhong Feng, Didier Le Thiec, Riccardo Marzuoli, Elina Oksanen, Johan Uddling, Matthew Wilkinson, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 15, 6941–6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Four published ozone damage functions previously used in terrestrial biosphere models were evaluated regarding their ability to simulate observed biomass dose–response relationships using the O-CN model. Neither damage function was able to reproduce the observed ozone-induced biomass reductions. Calibrating a plant-functional-type-specific relationship between accumulated ozone uptake and leaf-level photosynthesis did lead to a good agreement between observed and modelled ozone damage.
HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ricardo E. Gonzalez, Maya Gueguen, Carlos Guerra, Mike Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Ines S. Martins, Tetsuya Matsui, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Richard Sharp, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, and Henrique M. Pereira
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Derek T. Robinson, Alan Di Vittorio, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, C. Michael Barton, Daniel G. Brown, Albert Kettner, Carsten Lemmen, Brian C. O'Neill, Marco Janssen, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sam S. Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, James P. Syvitski, Isaac Ullah, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 895–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the complexity behind the rapid use of Earth’s resources requires modelling approaches that couple human and natural systems. We propose a framework that comprises the configuration, frequency of interaction, and coordination of communication between models along with eight lessons as guidelines to increase the success of coupled human–natural systems modelling initiatives. We also suggest a way to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models.
Maite Bauwens, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Lesley De Cruz, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Quentin Laffineur, Crist Amelynck, Niels Schoon, Bernard Heinesch, Thomas Holst, Almut Arneth, Reinhart Ceulemans, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, and Alex Guenther
Biogeosciences, 15, 3673–3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic isoprene fluxes are simulated over Europe with the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model for the recent past and end-of-century climate at high spatiotemporal resolution (0.1°, 3 min). Due to climate change, fluxes increased by 40 % over 1979–2014. Climate scenarios for 2070–2099 suggest an increase by 83 % due to climate, and an even stronger increase when the potential impact of CO2 fertilization is considered (up to 141 %). Accounting for CO2 inhibition cancels out a large part of these increases.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Florian Sallaba, Stefan Olin, Kerstin Engström, Abdulhakim M. Abdi, Niklas Boke-Olén, Veiko Lehsten, Jonas Ardö, and Jonathan W. Seaquist
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1191–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure in the Sahel. We show that the demand for food and feed biomass will begin to outstrip its supply in the 2040s if current trends continue. Though supply continues to increase it is outpaced by a greater increase in demand due to a combination of population growth and a shift to diets rich in animal proteins. This underscores the importance of policy interventions that would act to mitigate such developments.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Jonathan C. Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Peter Anthoni, Stefan Olin, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Many climate change mitigation scenarios require negative emissions from land management. However, environmental side effects are often not considered. Here, we use projections of future land use from two land-use models as input to a vegetation model. We show that carbon removal via bioenergy production or forest maintenance and expansion affect a range of ecosystem functions. Largest impacts are found for crop production, nitrogen losses, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds.
Margreet J. E. van Marle, Silvia Kloster, Brian I. Magi, Jennifer R. Marlon, Anne-Laure Daniau, Robert D. Field, Almut Arneth, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Chao Yue, Johannes W. Kaiser, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Fire emission estimates are a key input dataset for climate models. We have merged satellite information with proxy datasets and fire models to reconstruct fire emissions since 1750 AD. Our dataset indicates that, on a global scale, fire emissions were relatively constant over time. Since roughly 1950, declining emissions from savannas were approximately balanced by increased emissions from tropical deforestation zones.
Kerstin Engström, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, John Hassler, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 773–799, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Applying a global carbon tax on fossil was shown to lead to increased bioenergy production in four out of five scenarios. Increased bioenergy production led to global cropland changes that were up to 50 % larger by 2100 compared to the reference case (without global carbon tax). For scenarios with strong cropland expansion due to high population growth coupled with low technological change or bioenergy production, the biosphere was simulated to switch from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Ines Bamberger, Nadine K. Ruehr, Michael Schmitt, Andreas Gast, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 3649–3667, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the effects of summer heatwaves and drought on photosynthesis and isoprene emissions in black locust trees. While photosynthesis decreased, isoprene emission increased sharply during the heatwaves. Comparing isoprene emissions of stressed and unstressed trees at the same temperature, however, demonstrated that stressed trees emitted less isoprene than expected. This reveals that in order to predict isoprene emissions during heat waves, model parameters need to be re-evaluated.
Reinhard Prestele, Almut Arneth, Alberte Bondeau, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Stephen Sitch, Elke Stehfest, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate models. We identify and discuss three major challenges at the interface of land-use and climate modeling and propose ways for how to improve land-use representation in climate models. We conclude that land-use data-provider and user communities need to engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced land-use datasets to improve the quantification of land use–climate interactions and feedback.
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Steven Hoek, Toshichika Iizumi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Deepak K. Ray, Ashwan Reddy, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Gen Sakurai, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalsky, Carol X. Song, Xuhui Wang, Allard de Wit, and Hong Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Crop models are increasingly used in climate change impact research and integrated assessments. For the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have supplied crop yield simulations (1980–2010) for maize, wheat, rice and soybean. We evaluate the performance of these models against observational data at global, national and grid cell level. We propose an open-access benchmark system against which future model versions can be tested.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
Martina Franz, David Simpson, Almut Arneth, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 45–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone is a toxic air pollutant that can damage plant leaves and impact their carbon uptake from the atmosphere. We extend a terrestrial biosphere model to account for ozone damage of plants and investigate the impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Our approach accounts for ozone transport from the free troposphere to leaf level. We find that this substantially affects simulated ozone uptake into the plants. Simulations indicate that ozone damages plants less than expected from previous studies
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 893–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories on ecosystem recovery in a range of environmental conditions. We found that recovery trajectories are crucially influenced by type and duration of former agricultural land use, especially for soil carbon. Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity to land-use history in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands. These results are relevant for measurements, climate modeling and afforestation projects.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Almut Arneth, Risto Makkonen, Stefan Olin, Pauli Paasonen, Thomas Holst, Maija K. Kajos, Markku Kulmala, Trofim Maximov, Paul A. Miller, and Guy Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5243–5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We study the potentially contrasting effects of enhanced ecosystem CO2 release in response to warmer temperatures vs. emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds and their formation of secondary organic aerosol through a combination of measurements and modelling at a remote location in Eastern Siberia. The study aims to highlight the number of potentially opposing processes and complex interactions between vegetation physiology, soil processes and trace-gas exchanges in the climate system.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
W. Knorr, L. Jiang, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 13, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires are the largest contributor to atmospheric pollution from all fires globally, with major consequences for health and air quality. This study examines the main contributing factors governing wildfire emissions during the 20th and 21st centuries using simulations with climate and ecosystem models. Contrary to common perception, climate change is only one of several important factors, but population change, urbanization and changing atmospheric CO2 levels are at least equally important.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
S. Olin, M. Lindeskog, T. A. M. Pugh, G. Schurgers, D. Wårlind, M. Mishurov, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, B. Smith, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being. Properly managed they can supply food, store carbon and even sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Conversely, if poorly managed, croplands can be a source of nitrogen to inland and coastal waters, causing algal blooms, and a source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, accentuating climate change. Here we studied cropland management types for their potential to store carbon and minimize nitrogen losses while maintaining crop yields.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
G. Wohlfahrt, C. Amelynck, C. Ammann, A. Arneth, I. Bamberger, A. H. Goldstein, L. Gu, A. Guenther, A. Hansel, B. Heinesch, T. Holst, L. Hörtnagl, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, A. Neftel, K. McKinney, J. W. Munger, S. G. Pallardy, G. W. Schade, R. Seco, and N. Schoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7413–7427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates. Here we present micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight sites in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis of the terrestrial methanol exchange.
S. Olin, G. Schurgers, M. Lindeskog, D. Wårlind, B. Smith, P. Bodin, J. Holmér, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015
P. Bodin, S. Olin, T. A. M. Pugh, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Food security is defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In regions where food security is highly dependent on local production it is thus of importance to produce not only enough calories but also to minimize variation in yield. This trade-off is investigated here using simulated crop yield and by selecting relative distributions of crops. The results show a large potential to either increase food production or to decrease its variance by applying optimized crop selection.
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
A. Arneth, S. Olin, R. Makkonen, P. Paasonen, T. Holst, M. Kajos, M. Kulmala, T. Maximov, P. A. Miller, and G. Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, A. Arneth, and U. Weber
Biogeosciences, 11, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014
R. Väänänen, E.-M. Kyrö, T. Nieminen, N. Kivekäs, H. Junninen, A. Virkkula, M. Dal Maso, H. Lihavainen, Y. Viisanen, B. Svenningsson, T. Holst, A. Arneth, P. P. Aalto, M. Kulmala, and V.-M. Kerminen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11887–11903, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, 2013
M. Lindeskog, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, K. Waha, J. Seaquist, S. Olin, and B. Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013
N. Unger, K. Harper, Y. Zheng, N. Y. Kiang, I. Aleinov, A. Arneth, G. Schurgers, C. Amelynck, A. Goldstein, A. Guenther, B. Heinesch, C. N. Hewitt, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, B. Langford, K. A. McKinney, P. Misztal, M. Potosnak, J. Rinne, S. Pressley, N. Schoon, and D. Serça
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10243–10269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, 2013
M. K. Kajos, H. Hakola, T. Holst, T. Nieminen, V. Tarvainen, T. Maximov, T. Petäjä, A. Arneth, and J. Rinne
Biogeosciences, 10, 4705–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Terrestrial
Assimilation of passive microwave vegetation optical depth in LDAS-Monde: a case study over the continental USA
Global modelling of soil carbonyl sulfide exchanges
The effects of varying drought-heat signatures on terrestrial carbon dynamics and vegetation composition
Resolving temperature limitation on spring productivity in an evergreen conifer forest using a model–data fusion framework
A robust initialization method for accurate soil organic carbon simulations
Evaluation of carbonyl sulfide biosphere exchange in the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4)
Model simulations of arctic biogeochemistry and permafrost extent are highly sensitive to the implemented snow scheme in LPJ-GUESS
Theoretical insights from upscaling Michaelis–Menten microbial dynamics in biogeochemical models: a dimensionless approach
Effects of climate change in the European croplands and grasslands: productivity, GHG balance and soil carbon storage
Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change
An improved process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model for simulating dynamic fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide in alpine ecosystems with seasonally frozen soils
A novel representation of biological nitrogen fixation and competitive dynamics between nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing plants in a land model (GFDL LM4.1-BNF)
Organic phosphorus cycling may control grassland responses to nitrogen deposition: a long-term field manipulation and modelling study
A triple tree-ring constraint for tree growth and physiology in a global land surface model
Simulating shrubs and their energy and carbon dioxide fluxes in Canada's Low Arctic with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC)
Competing effects of nitrogen deposition and ozone exposure on northern hemispheric terrestrial carbon uptake and storage, 1850–2099
Carbonyl sulfide: comparing a mechanistic representation of the vegetation uptake in a land surface model and the leaf relative uptake approach
Optimal model complexity for terrestrial carbon cycle prediction
CO2 physiological effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon
Plant phenology evaluation of CRESCENDO land surface models – Part 1: Start and end of the growing season
Understanding the effect of fire on vegetation composition and gross primary production in a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model
Impacts of fertilization on grassland productivity and water quality across the European Alps under current and warming climate: insights from a mechanistic model
The climate benefit of carbon sequestration
Extending a land-surface model with Sphagnum moss to simulate responses of a northern temperate bog to whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2
Improving the representation of high-latitude vegetation distribution in dynamic global vegetation models
Robust processing of airborne laser scans to plant area density profiles
Investigating the sensitivity of soil heterotrophic respiration to recent snow cover changes in Alaska using a satellite-based permafrost carbon model
Hysteretic temperature sensitivity of wetland CH4 fluxes explained by substrate availability and microbial activity
Modelling the habitat preference of two key Sphagnum species in a poor fen as controlled by capitulum water content
Evaluating two soil carbon models within the global land surface model JSBACH using surface and spaceborne observations of atmospheric CO2
Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator
Microbial dormancy and its impacts on northern temperate and boreal terrestrial ecosystem carbon budget
Historical CO2 emissions from land use and land cover change and their uncertainty
A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models
Rainfall intensification increases the contribution of rewetting pulses to soil heterotrophic respiration
Wide discrepancies in the magnitude and direction of modeled solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence in response to light conditions
Modeling biological nitrogen fixation in global natural terrestrial ecosystems
The impact of a simple representation of non-structural carbohydrates on the simulated response of tropical forests to drought
Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama
Modelling nitrification inhibitor effects on N2O emissions after fall- and spring-applied slurry by reducing nitrifier NH4+ oxidation rate
DRIFTS band areas as measured pool size proxy to reduce parameter uncertainty in soil organic matter models
Wintertime grassland dynamics may influence belowground biomass under climate change: a model analysis
Low sensitivity of gross primary production to elevated CO2 in a mature eucalypt woodland
Metabolic tradeoffs and heterogeneity in microbial responses to temperature determine the fate of litter carbon in simulations of a warmer world
Competition alters predicted forest carbon cycle responses to nitrogen availability and elevated CO2: simulations using an explicitly competitive, game-theoretic vegetation demographic model
The importance of physiological, structural and trait responses to drought stress in driving spatial and temporal variation in GPP across Amazon forests
Modelling the response of net primary productivity of the Zambezi teak forests to climate change along a rainfall gradient in Zambia
Three decades of simulated global terrestrial carbon fluxes from a data assimilation system confronted with different periods of observations
Using a modified DNDC biogeochemical model to optimize field management of a multi-crop (cotton, wheat, and maize) system: a site-scale case study in northern China
Decadal fates and impacts of nitrogen additions on temperate forest carbon storage: a data–model comparison
Anthony Mucia, Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Biogeosciences, 19, 2557–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, microwave vegetation optical depth data are assimilated in a land surface model in order to analyze leaf area index and root zone soil moisture. The advantage of microwave products is the higher observation frequency. A large variety of independent datasets are used to verify the added value of the assimilation. It is shown that the assimilation is able to improve the representation of soil moisture, vegetation conditions, and terrestrial water and carbon fluxes.
Camille Abadie, Fabienne Maignan, Marine Remaud, Jérôme Ogée, J. Elliott Campbell, Mary E. Whelan, Florian Kitz, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Richard Wehr, Wu Sun, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Didier Hauglustaine, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Sauveur Belviso, David Montagne, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 19, 2427–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A better constraint of the components of the carbonyl sulfide (COS) global budget is needed to exploit its potential as a proxy of gross primary productivity. In this study, we compare two representations of oxic soil COS fluxes, and we develop an approach to represent anoxic soil COS fluxes in a land surface model. We show the importance of atmospheric COS concentration variations on oxic soil COS fluxes and provide new estimates for oxic and anoxic soil contributions to the COS global budget.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Stephanie G. Stettz, Nicholas C. Parazoo, A. Anthony Bloom, Peter D. Blanken, David R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Brett Raczka, Alexander J. Norton, Ian Baker, Mathew Williams, Mingjie Shi, Yongguang Zhang, and Bo Qiu
Biogeosciences, 19, 541–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty in the response of photosynthesis to temperature poses a major challenge to predicting the response of forests to climate change. In this paper, we study how photosynthesis in a mountainous evergreen forest is limited by temperature. This study highlights that cold temperature is a key factor that controls spring photosynthesis. Including the cold-temperature limitation in an ecosystem model improved its ability to simulate spring photosynthesis.
Eva Kanari, Lauric Cécillon, François Baudin, Hugues Clivot, Fabien Ferchaud, Sabine Houot, Florent Levavasseur, Bruno Mary, Laure Soucémarianadin, Claire Chenu, and Pierre Barré
Biogeosciences, 19, 375–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-375-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is crucial for climate regulation, soil quality, and food security. Predicting its evolution over the next decades is key for appropriate land management policies. However, SOC projections lack accuracy. Here we show for the first time that PARTYSOC, an approach combining thermal analysis and machine learning optimizes the accuracy of SOC model simulations at independent sites. This method can be applied at large scales, improving SOC projections on a continental scale.
Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Ara Cho, Jin Ma, Aleya Kaushik, Katherine D. Haynes, Ian Baker, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Mathijs Groenink, Wouter Peters, John B. Miller, Joseph A. Berry, Jerome Ogée, Laura K. Meredith, Wu Sun, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Huilin Chen, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Max Berkelhammer, Mary E. Whelan, Kadmiel Maseyk, Ulli Seibt, Roisin Commane, Richard Wehr, and Maarten Krol
Biogeosciences, 18, 6547–6565, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6547-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6547-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The gas carbonyl sulfide (COS) can be used to estimate photosynthesis. To adopt this approach on regional and global scales, we need biosphere models that can simulate COS exchange. So far, such models have not been evaluated against observations. We evaluate the COS biosphere exchange of the SiB4 model against COS flux observations. We find that the model is capable of simulating key processes in COS biosphere exchange. Still, we give recommendations for further improvement of the model.
Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Biogeosciences, 18, 5767–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that the introduction of a multi-layer snow scheme in the LPJ-GUESS DGVM improved simulations of high-latitude soil temperature dynamics and permafrost extent compared to observations. In addition, these improvements led to shifts in carbon fluxes that contrasted within and outside of the permafrost region. Our results show that a realistic snow scheme is essential to accurately simulate snow–soil–vegetation relationships and carbon–climate feedbacks.
Chris H. Wilson and Stefan Gerber
Biogeosciences, 18, 5669–5679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5669-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To better mitigate against climate change, it is imperative that ecosystem scientists understand how microbes decompose organic carbon in the soil and thereby release it as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A major challenge is the high variability across ecosystems in microbial biomass and in the environmental factors like temperature that drive their activity. In this paper, we use math to better understand how this variability impacts carbon dioxide release over large scales.
Marco Carozzi, Raphaël Martin, Katja Klumpp, and Raia Silvia Massad
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-241, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-241, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents original results regarding the effects of climate change on the European croplands and grasslands systems. We provided a detailed analysis about productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon balance and water demand. Our integrative results can be useful in support decision making to identify future actions targeted to sustain productivity and reduce environmental impacts.
Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 18, 4937–4952, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost soils hold about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. As the Earth warms the organic matter in these soils will decay, releasing CO2 and CH4. It is expected that these soils will continue to release carbon to the atmosphere long after man-made emissions of greenhouse gases cease. Here we use a method employing hundreds of slightly varying model versions to estimate how much warming permafrost carbon will cause after human emissions of CO2 end.
Wei Zhang, Zhisheng Yao, Siqi Li, Xunhua Zheng, Han Zhang, Lei Ma, Kai Wang, Rui Wang, Chunyan Liu, Shenghui Han, Jia Deng, and Yong Li
Biogeosciences, 18, 4211–4225, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The hydro-biogeochemical model Catchment Nutrient Management Model – DeNitrification-DeComposition (CNMM-DNDC) is improved by incorporating a soil thermal module to simulate the soil thermal regime in the presence of freeze–thaw cycles. The modified model is validated at a seasonally frozen catchment with typical alpine ecosystems (wetland, meadow and forest). The simulated aggregate emissions of methane and nitrous oxide are highest for the wetland, which is dominated by the methane emissions.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Sergey Malyshev, Isabel Martínez Cano, Stephen W. Pacala, Elena Shevliakova, Thomas A. Bytnerowicz, and Duncan N. L. Menge
Biogeosciences, 18, 4143–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4143-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4143-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Representing biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is an important challenge for land models. We present a novel representation of BNF and updated nitrogen cycling in a land model. It includes a representation of asymbiotic BNF by soil microbes and the competitive dynamics between nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing plants. It improves estimations of major carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes and their temporal dynamics in comparison to previous representations of BNF in land models.
Christopher R. Taylor, Victoria Janes-Bassett, Gareth K. Phoenix, Ben Keane, Iain P. Hartley, and Jessica A. C. Davies
Biogeosciences, 18, 4021–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4021-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used experimental data to model two phosphorus-limited grasslands and investigated their response to nitrogen (N) deposition. Greater uptake of organic P facilitated a positive response to N deposition, stimulating growth and soil carbon storage. Where organic P access was less, N deposition exacerbated P demand and reduced plant C input to the soil. This caused more C to be released into the atmosphere than is taken in, reducing the climate-mitigation capacity of the modelled grassland.
Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Thomas Launois, Valerie Daux, Camille Risi, Jina Jeong, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 18, 3781–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3781-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The width and the chemical signals of tree rings have the potential to test and improve the physiological responses simulated by global land surface models, which are at the core of future climate projections. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of tree-ring width and carbon and oxygen stable isotopes to evaluate the representation of tree growth and physiology in a global land surface model at temporal scales beyond experimentation and direct observation.
Gesa Meyer, Elyn R. Humphreys, Joe R. Melton, Alex J. Cannon, and Peter M. Lafleur
Biogeosciences, 18, 3263–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3263-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Shrub and sedge plant functional types (PFTs) were incorporated in the land surface component of the Canadian Earth System Model to improve representation of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Evaluated against 14 years of non-winter measurements, the magnitude and seasonality of carbon dioxide and energy fluxes at a Canadian dwarf-shrub tundra site were better captured by the shrub PFTs than by previously used grass and tree PFTs. Model simulations showed the tundra site to be an annual net CO2 source.
Martina Franz and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The combined effects of ozone and nitrogen deposition on the terrestrial carbon uptake and storage has been unclear. Our simulations, from 1850 to 2099, show that ozone-related damage considerably reduced gross primary production and carbon storage in the past. The growth-stimulating effect induced by nitrogen deposition is offset until the 2050s. Accounting for nitrogen deposition without considering ozone effects might lead to an overestimation of terrestrial carbon uptake and storage.
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) by continental vegetation has been proposed as a proxy for gross primary production (GPP). Using a land surface and a transport model, we compare a mechanistic representation of the plant COS uptake (Berry et al., 2013) to the classical leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach linking GPP and vegetation COS fluxes. We show that at high temporal resolutions a mechanistic approach is mandatory, but at large scales the LRU approach compares similarly.
Caroline A. Famiglietti, T. Luke Smallman, Paul A. Levine, Sophie Flack-Prain, Gregory R. Quetin, Victoria Meyer, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Stephanie G. Stettz, Yan Yang, Damien Bonal, A. Anthony Bloom, Mathew Williams, and Alexandra G. Konings
Biogeosciences, 18, 2727–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Model uncertainty dominates the spread in terrestrial carbon cycle predictions. Efforts to reduce it typically involve adding processes, thereby increasing model complexity. However, if and how model performance scales with complexity is unclear. Using a suite of 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models, we find that increased complexity only improves skill if parameters are adequately informed. Otherwise, it can degrade skill, and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal.
Gilvan Sampaio, Marília H. Shimizu, Carlos A. Guimarães-Júnior, Felipe Alexandre, Marcelo Guatura, Manoel Cardoso, Tomas F. Domingues, Anja Rammig, Celso von Randow, Luiz F. C. Rezende, and David M. Lapola
Biogeosciences, 18, 2511–2525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of large-scale deforestation and the physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on Amazon rainfall are systematically compared in this study. Our results are remarkable in showing that the two disturbances cause equivalent rainfall decrease, though through different causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of not only curbing regional deforestation but also reducing global CO2 emissions to avoid climatic changes in the Amazon.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Karun Pandit, Hamid Dashti, Andrew T. Hudak, Nancy F. Glenn, Alejandro N. Flores, and Douglas J. Shinneman
Biogeosciences, 18, 2027–2045, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2027-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A dynamic global vegetation model, Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2), is used to understand spatiotemporal dynamics of a semi-arid shrub ecosystem under alternative fire regimes. Multi-decadal point simulations suggest shrub dominance for a non-fire scenario and a contrasting phase of shrub and C3 grass growth for a fire scenario. Regional gross primary productivity (GPP) simulations indicate moderate agreement with MODIS GPP and a GPP reduction in fire-affected areas before showing some recovery.
Martina Botter, Matthias Zeeman, Paolo Burlando, and Simone Fatichi
Biogeosciences, 18, 1917–1939, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1917-2021, 2021
Carlos A. Sierra, Susan E. Crow, Martin Heimann, Holger Metzler, and Ernst-Detlef Schulze
Biogeosciences, 18, 1029–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1029-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The climate benefit of carbon sequestration (CBS) is a metric developed to quantify avoided warming by two separate processes: the amount of carbon drawdown from the atmosphere and the time this carbon is stored in a reservoir. This metric can be useful for quantifying the role of forests and soils for climate change mitigation and to better quantify the benefits of carbon removals by sinks.
Xiaoying Shi, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Peter E. Thornton, Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Richard J. Norby, Anthony P. Walker, Jeffrey M. Warren, Jiafu Mao, Paul J. Hanson, Lin Meng, David Weston, and Natalie A. Griffiths
Biogeosciences, 18, 467–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-467-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Sphagnum mosses are the important species of a wetland ecosystem. To better represent the peatland ecosystem, we introduced the moss species to the land model component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing water content dynamics and nonvascular photosynthetic processes for moss. We tested the model against field observations and used the model to make projections of the site's carbon cycle under warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios.
Peter Horvath, Hui Tang, Rune Halvorsen, Frode Stordal, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Terje Koren Berntsen, and Anders Bryn
Biogeosciences, 18, 95–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-95-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-95-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the performance of three methods for representing vegetation cover. Remote sensing provided the best match to a reference dataset, closely followed by distribution modelling (DM), whereas the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) in CLM4.5BGCDV deviated strongly from the reference. Sensitivity tests show that use of threshold values for predictors identified by DM may improve DGVM performance. The results highlight the potential of using DM in the development of DGVMs.
Johan Arnqvist, Julia Freier, and Ebba Dellwik
Biogeosciences, 17, 5939–5952, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5939-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5939-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Data generated by airborne laser scans enable the characterization of surface vegetation for any application that might need it, such as forest management, modeling for numerical weather prediction, or wind energy estimation. In this work we present a new algorithm for calculating the vegetation density using data from airborne laser scans. The new routine is more robust than earlier methods, and an implementation in popular programming languages accompanies the article to support new users.
Yonghong Yi, John S. Kimball, Jennifer D. Watts, Susan M. Natali, Donatella Zona, Junjie Liu, Masahito Ueyama, Hideki Kobayashi, Walter Oechel, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 17, 5861–5882, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5861-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5861-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a 1 km satellite-data-driven permafrost carbon model to evaluate soil respiration sensitivity to recent snow cover changes in Alaska. Results show earlier snowmelt enhances growing-season soil respiration and reduces annual carbon uptake, while early cold-season soil respiration is linked to the number of snow-free days after the land surface freezes. Our results also show nonnegligible influences of subgrid variability in surface conditions on model-simulated CO2 seasonal cycles.
Kuang-Yu Chang, William J. Riley, Patrick M. Crill, Robert F. Grant, and Scott R. Saleska
Biogeosciences, 17, 5849–5860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5849-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5849-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is a strong greenhouse gas that can accelerate climate change and offset mitigation efforts. A key assumption embedded in many large-scale climate models is that ecosystem CH4 emissions can be estimated by fixed temperature relations. Here, we demonstrate that CH4 emissions cannot be parameterized by emergent temperature response alone due to variability driven by microbial and abiotic interactions. We also provide mechanistic understanding for observed CH4 emission hysteresis.
Jinnan Gong, Nigel Roulet, Steve Frolking, Heli Peltola, Anna M. Laine, Nicola Kokkonen, and Eeva-Stiina Tuittila
Biogeosciences, 17, 5693–5719, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5693-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5693-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, which combined a field and lab experiment with modelling, we developed a process-based model for simulating dynamics within peatland moss communities. The model is useful because Sphagnum mosses are key engineers in peatlands; their response to changes in climate via altered hydrology controls the feedback of peatland biogeochemistry to climate. Our work showed that moss capitulum traits related to water retention are the mechanism controlling moss layer dynamics in peatlands.
Tea Thum, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Jari Liski, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Tiina Markkanen, Julia Pongratz, Yukio Yoshida, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 17, 5721–5743, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5721-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global vegetation models are important tools in estimating the impacts of global climate change. The fate of soil carbon is of the upmost importance as its emissions will enhance the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. To evaluate the skill of global vegetation models to model the soil carbon and its responses to environmental factors, it is important to use different data sources. We evaluated two different soil carbon models by using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Maoyi Huang, Yi Xu, Marcos Longo, Michael Keller, Ryan G. Knox, Charles D. Koven, and Rosie A. Fisher
Biogeosciences, 17, 4999–5023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4999-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is enhanced to mimic the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed forest; and modifying the biomass, coarse woody debris, and litter pools. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES as part of an Earth system model.
Junrong Zha and Qianla Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 17, 4591–4610, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study incorporated microbial dormancy into a detailed microbe-based biogeochemistry model to examine the fate of Arctic carbon budgets under changing climate conditions. Compared with the model without microbial dormancy, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last and current century. This study highlights the importance of the representation of microbial dormancy in earth system models to adequately quantify the carbon dynamics in the Arctic.
Thomas Gasser, Léa Crepin, Yann Quilcaille, Richard A. Houghton, Philippe Ciais, and Michael Obersteiner
Biogeosciences, 17, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We combine several lines of evidence to provide a robust estimate of historical CO2 emissions from land use change. Our novel approach leads to reduced uncertainty and identifies key remaining sources of uncertainty and discrepancy.
We also quantify the carbon removal by natural ecosystems that would have occurred if these ecosystems had not been destroyed (mostly via deforestation). Over the last decade, this foregone carbon sink amounted to about 50 % of the actual emissions.
Hua W. Xie, Adriana L. Romero-Olivares, Michele Guindani, and Steven D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 17, 4043–4057, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Soil biogeochemical models (SBMs) are needed to predict future soil CO2 emissions levels, but we presently lack statistically rigorous frameworks for assessing the predictive utility of SBMs. In this study, we demonstrate one possible approach to evaluating SBMs by comparing the fits of two models to soil CO2 respiration data with recently developed Bayesian statistical goodness-of-fit metrics. Our results demonstrate that our approach is a viable one for continued development and refinement.
Stefano Manzoni, Arjun Chakrawal, Thomas Fischer, Joshua P. Schimel, Amilcare Porporato, and Giulia Vico
Biogeosciences, 17, 4007–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4007-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4007-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon dioxide is produced by soil microbes through respiration, which is particularly fast when soils are moistened by rain. Will respiration increase with future more intense rains and longer dry spells? With a mathematical model, we show that wetter conditions increase respiration. In contrast, if rainfall totals stay the same, but rain comes all at once after long dry spells, the average respiration will not change, but the contribution of the respiration bursts after rain will increase.
Nicholas C. Parazoo, Troy Magney, Alex Norton, Brett Raczka, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Ian Baker, Yongguang Zhang, Bo Qiu, Mingjie Shi, Natasha MacBean, Dave R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Peter D. Blanken, Jochen Stutz, Katja Grossmann, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 17, 3733–3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3733-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3733-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provide a global measure of photosynthetic change. This enables scientists to better track carbon cycle responses to environmental change and tune biochemical processes in vegetation models for an improved simulation of future change. We use tower-instrumented SIF measurements and controlled model experiments to assess the state of the art in terrestrial biosphere SIF modeling and find a wide range of sensitivities to light.
Tong Yu and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 17, 3643–3657, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3643-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) plays an important role in the global nitrogen cycle. However, the fixation rate has usually been measured or estimated at a particular observational site. This study develops a BNF model considering the symbiotic relationship between legume plants and bacteria. The model is extensively calibrated with site-level observational data and then extrapolated to the global terrestrial ecosystems to quantify the fixation rate in the 1990s.
Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Anna B. Harper
Biogeosciences, 17, 3589–3612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are an important set of molecules that help plants to grow and respire when photosynthesis is restricted by extreme climate events. In this paper we present a simple model of NSC storage and assess the effect that it has on simulations of vegetation at the ecosystem scale. Our model has the potential to significantly change predictions of plant behaviour in global vegetation models, which would have large implications for predictions of the future climate.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Robert F. Grant, Sisi Lin, and Guillermo Hernandez-Ramirez
Biogeosciences, 17, 2021–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2021-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2021-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrification inhibitors (NI) have been shown to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide (N20), a potent greenhouse gas, from fertilizer and manure applied to agricultural fields. However difficulties in measuring N20 emissions limit our ability to estimate these reductions. Here we propose and test a mathematical model that may allow us to estimate these reductions under diverse site conditions. These estimates will be useful in determining emission factors for NI-amended fertilizer and manure.
Moritz Laub, Michael Scott Demyan, Yvonne Funkuin Nkwain, Sergey Blagodatsky, Thomas Kätterer, Hans-Peter Piepho, and Georg Cadisch
Biogeosciences, 17, 1393–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1393-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere represents a global challenge. We tested an innovative way to reduce the high uncertainty related to turnover of carbon stored in soils. With the use of infrared spectra of soils from model bare fallow systems, we were able to better assess the current state of soil carbon and predict its behavior in overdecadal time spans. In agreement with recent studies, carbon turnover seems faster than earlier assumed, with potential for high loss under mismanagement.
Genki Katata, Rüdiger Grote, Matthias Mauder, Matthias J. Zeeman, and Masakazu Ota
Biogeosciences, 17, 1071–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we demonstrate that high physiological activity levels during the extremely warm winter are allocated into the below-ground biomass and only to a minor extent used for additional plant growth during early spring. This process is so far largely unaccounted for in scenario analysis using global terrestrial biosphere models, and it may lead to carbon accumulation in the soil and/or carbon loss from the soil as a response to global warming.
Jinyan Yang, Belinda E. Medlyn, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko A. Duursma, Mingkai Jiang, Dushan Kumarathunge, Kristine Y. Crous, Teresa E. Gimeno, Agnieszka Wujeska-Klause, and David S. Ellsworth
Biogeosciences, 17, 265–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-265-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-265-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study addressed a major knowledge gap in the response of forest productivity to elevated CO2. We first quantified forest productivity of an evergreen forest under both ambient and elevated CO2, using a model constrained by in situ measurements. The simulation showed the canopy productivity response to elevated CO2 to be smaller than that at the leaf scale due to different limiting processes. This finding provides a key reference for the understanding of CO2 impacts on forest ecosystems.
Grace Pold, Seeta A. Sistla, and Kristen M. DeAngelis
Biogeosciences, 16, 4875–4888, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4875-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4875-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The litter decomposition model DEMENT was run under ambient temperatures and with 5 °C; of warming. We found that the loss of litter carbon to the atmosphere as CO2 was exacerbated by warming when the microbes in the model differed in their temperature responses, compared to when all microbes responded identically to warming. Our results therefore indicate that predicted changes in litter carbon stocks are sensitive to heterogeneity in key parameters of soil decomposer physiology.
Ensheng Weng, Ray Dybzinski, Caroline E. Farrior, and Stephen W. Pacala
Biogeosciences, 16, 4577–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4577-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4577-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study illustrates that the competition processes for light and soil resources in a game-theoretic vegetation demographic model can substantially change the prediction of the contribution of ecosystems to the global carbon cycle. The model that tracks the competitive allocation strategies can generate significantly different ecosystem-level predictions than those with fixed allocation strategies.
Sophie Flack-Prain, Patrick Meir, Yadvinder Malhi, Thomas Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams
Biogeosciences, 16, 4463–4484, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Across the Amazon rainforest, trees take in carbon through photosynthesis. However, photosynthesis across the basin is threatened by predicted shifts in rainfall patterns. To unpick how changes in rainfall affect photosynthesis, we use a model which combines climate data with our knowledge of photosynthesis and other plant processes. We find that stomatal constraints are less important, and instead shifts in leaf surface area and leaf properties drive changes in photosynthesis with rainfall.
Justine Ngoma, Maarten C. Braakhekke, Bart Kruijt, Eddy Moors, Iwan Supit, James H. Speer, Royd Vinya, and Rik Leemans
Biogeosciences, 16, 3853–3867, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3853-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3853-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Zambezi teak forests are a source of raw material for the timber industry. Through application of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model, we determined the forests' response to climate change at the wetter Kabompo, drier Sesheke, and intermediate Namwala sites in Zambia. While increased CO2 concentration enhances forests' productivity at Kabompo and Namwala, the decreased rainfall will reduce forests' productivity at Sesheke by the year 2099, resulting in reduced raw material for saw millers.
Karel Castro-Morales, Gregor Schürmann, Christoph Köstler, Christian Rödenbeck, Martin Heimann, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 16, 3009–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3009-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To obtain nearly 30 years of global terrestrial carbon fluxes, we simultaneously incorporated in a land surface model three different time periods of two observational data sets: absorbed photosynthetic active radiation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. One decade of data is enough to improve the modeled long-term trends and seasonal amplitudes of the assimilated variables, particularly in boreal regions. This model has the potential to provide short-term predictions of land carbon fluxes.
Wei Zhang, Chunyan Liu, Xunhua Zheng, Kai Wang, Feng Cui, Rui Wang, Siqi Li, Zhisheng Yao, and Jiang Zhu
Biogeosciences, 16, 2905–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2905-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2905-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A biogeochemical process model-based approach for screening the best management practices (BMPs) of a three-crop system was proposed. The BMPs are the management alternatives with the lowest negative impact potentials that still satisfy all given constraints. Three BMP alternatives with overlapping uncertainties of simulated NIPs were screened from 6000 scenarios using the modified DNDC95 model, which could sustain crop yields, enlarge SOC stock, mitigate GHG, and reduce other nitrogen losses.
Susan J. Cheng, Peter G. Hess, William R. Wieder, R. Quinn Thomas, Knute J. Nadelhoffer, Julius Vira, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Per Gundersen, Ivan J. Fernandez, Patrick Schleppi, Marie-Cécile Gruselle, Filip Moldan, and Christine L. Goodale
Biogeosciences, 16, 2771–2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2771-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2771-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen deposition and fertilizer can change how much carbon is stored in plants and soils. Understanding how much added nitrogen is recovered in plants or soils is critical to estimating the size of the future land carbon sink. We compared how nitrogen additions are recovered in modeled soil and plant stocks against data from long-term nitrogen addition experiments. We found that the model simulates recovery of added nitrogen into soils through a different process than found in the field.
Cited articles
Abdalla, M., Hastings, A., Cheng, K., Yue, Q., Chadwick, D., Espenberg, M., Truu, J., Rees, R. M., and Smith, P.:
A critical review of the impacts of cover crops on nitrogen leaching, net greenhouse gas balance and crop productivity, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 2530–2543, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14644, 2019.
Badagliacca, G., Benítez, E., Amato, G., Badalucco, L., Giambalvo, D., Laudicina, V. A., and Ruisi, P.:
Long-term no-tillage application increases soil organic carbon, nitrous oxide emissions and faba bean (Vicia faba L.) yields under rain-fed Mediterranean conditions, Sci. Total Environ., 639, 350–359, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.157, 2018.
Baudron, F., Jaleta, M., Okitoi, O., and Tegegn, A.:
Conservation agriculture in African mixed crop-livestock systems: Expanding the niche, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 187, 171–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2013.08.020, 2014.
Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein, M., and Smith, B.:
Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 679–706, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x, 2007.
Bouwman, L., Goldewijk, K. K., Van Der Hoek, K. W., Beusen, A. H. W., Van Vuuren, D. P., Willems, J., Rufino, M. C., and Stehfest, E.:
Erratum: Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production over the 1900–2050 period (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2013) https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1012878108, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 21196, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1206191109, 2013.
Carsky, R. J., Becker, M., and Hauser, S.:
Mucuna Cover Crop Fallow Systems: Potential and limitations, in: Sustaining soil fertility in West Africa, edited by: Tian, G., Ishida, F., Keatinge, D., Carsky, R., and Wendt, J., SSSA Special Publication, Madison, USA, 111–135, ISBN 978-0-89118-838-4, 2001.
Central Statistical Agency:
The federal democratic republic of Ethiopia central statistical agency, agricultural sample survery 2015/16 (2008 E.C), volume V: report on area, production and farm management practice of belg season crops for private peasant holdings, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2016.
Corbeels, M., Graaff, J. De, Hycenth, T., Penot, E., Baudron, F., Naudin, K., Andrieu, N., Chirat, G., Schuler, J., Nyagumbo, I., Rusinamhodzi, L., Traore, K., Dulla, H., and Solomon, I.:
Understanding the impact and adoption of conservation agriculture in Africa: A multi-scale analysis, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 187, 155–170, 2014.
Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Lange, S., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., and Buontempo, C.: WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020.
Dirmeyer, P. A., Gao, X., Zhao, M., Guo, Z., Oki, T., and Hanasaki, N.:
GSWP-2: Multimodel analysis and implications for our perception of the land surface, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1381–1397, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1381, 2006.
Elliott, J., Müller, C., Deryng, D., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Boote, K. J., Büchner, M., Foster, I., Glotter, M., Heinke, J., Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Mueller, N. D., Ray, D. K., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., and Sheffield, J.: The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-261-2015, 2015.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
FAO:
Food loss and food waste: Extent, Causes, and Prevention, Rome, Italy, 2011.
FAOSTAT: Production/Crops and livestock products, FAOSTAT [data set], https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data, last access: 19 August 2021.
Giller, K. E., Witter, E., Corbeels, M., and Tittonell, P.:
Conservation agriculture and smallholder farming in Africa: The heretics' view, Field Crop. Res., 114, 23–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2009.06.017, 2009.
Haddaway, N. R., Hedlund, K., Jackson, L. E., Kätterer, T., Lugato, E., Thomsen, I. K., Jørgensen, H. B., and Isberg, P. E.: How does tillage intensity affect soil organic carbon? A systematic review, Environ. Evid., 6, 30, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-017-0108-9, 2017.
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P., and Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset, Sci. Data, 7, 109, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3, 2020 (data available at: https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/cru/data/cru_jra/cru_jra_2.1 (last access: 14 November 2021).
Herzfeld, T., Heinke, J., Rolinski, S., and Müller, C.: Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1037–1055, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, 2021.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J. O., Kennedy, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020.
Johnston, A. E., Poulton, P. R., and Coleman, K.: Chapter 1 Soil Organic Matter. Its Importance in Sustainable Agriculture and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes, Adv. Agron., 101, 1–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2113(08)00801-8, 2009.
Kaltenegger, K., Erb, K. H., Matej, S., and Winiwarter, W.:
Gridded soil surface nitrogen surplus on grazing and agricultural land: Impact of land use maps, Environ. Res. Commun., 3, 055003, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abedd8, 2021.
Kihara, J., Bolo, P., Kinyua, M., Nyawira, S. S., and Sommer, R.:
Soil health and ecosystem services: Lessons from sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), Geoderma, 370, 114342, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2020.114342, 2020.
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Kiyotoshi, T.:
The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015 (data available at: https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/cru/data/cru_jra/cru_jra_2.1 (last access: 14 November 2021).
Lange, S.: Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3055–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, 2019.
Lange, S., Menz, C., Gleixner, S., Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., Buontempo, C., and Cagnazzo, C.: WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean, Version 2.0, ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.342217, 2021.
Lindeskog, M., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Waha, K., Seaquist, J., Olin, S., and Smith, B.: Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in Africa, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013.
Ma, J., Olin, S., Anthoni, P., Rabin, S. S., Bayer, A. D., Nyawira, S. S., and Arneth, A.: Modeling symbiotic biological nitrogen fixation in grain legumes globally with LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r10285), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022.
Marcillo, G. S. and Miguez, F. E.:
Corn yield response to winter cover crops: An updated meta-analysis, J. Soil Water Conserv., 72, 226–239, https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.72.3.226, 2017.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020.
Moebius-Clune, B. N., van Es, H. M., Idowu, O. J., Schindelbeck, R. R., Kimetu, J. M., Ngoze, S., Lehmann, J., and Kinyangi, J. M.:
Long-term soil quality degradation along a cultivation chronosequence in western Kenya, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 141, 86–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.02.018, 2011.
Mugizi, F. M. P. and Matsumoto, T.:
Population pressure and soil quality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Panel evidence from Kenya, Land Use Policy, 94, 104499, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104499, 2020.
Nyawira, S. S., Hartman, M. D., Nguyen, T. H., Margenot, A. J., Kihara, J., Paul, B. K., Williams, S., Bolo, P., and Sommer, R.:
Simulating soil organic carbon in maize-based systems under improved agronomic management in Western Kenya, Soil Till. Res., 211, 105000, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2021.105000, 2021.
Olin, S., Schurgers, G., Lindeskog, M., Wårlind, D., Smith, B., Bodin, P., Holmér, J., and Arneth, A.: Modelling the response of yields and tissue C : N to changes in atmospheric CO2 and N management in the main wheat regions of western Europe, Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015a.
Olin, S., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Schurgers, G., Wårlind, D., Mishurov, M., Zaehle, S., Stocker, B. D., Smith, B., and Arneth, A.: Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015b.
Olsson, L., Barbosa, H., Bhadwal, S., Cowie, A., Delusca, K., Flores-Renteria, D., Hermans, K., Jobbagy, E., Kurz, W., Li, D., Sonwa, D. J., and Stringer, L.:
Land Degredation, in: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Calvo Buendia, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D. C., Zhai, P., Slade, R., Connors, S., van Diemen, R., Ferrat, M., Haughey, E., Luz, S., Neogi, S., Pathak, M., Petzold, J., Portugal Pereira, J., Vyas, P., Huntley, E., Kissick, K., Belkacemi, M., and Malley, J., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 345–436, 2019.
Parton, W. J., Scurlock, J. M. O., Ojima, D. S., Gilmanov, T. G., Scholes, R. J., Schimel, D. S., Kirchner, T., Menaut, J. -C, Seastedt, T., Garcia Moya, E., Kamnalrut, A., and Kinyamario, J. I.:
Observations and modeling of biomass and soil organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 7, 785–809, https://doi.org/10.1029/93GB02042, 1993.
Penning de Vries, F. W. T., Jansen, D. M., Berge, H. F. M. ten, and
Bakema, A.: Simulation of ecophysiological processes of growth
in several annual crops, Centre for Agricultural Publishing and
Documentation (Pudoc), Wageningen, the Netherlands, ISBN 90-220-1000-7, 1989.
Pittelkow, C. M., Liang, X., Linquist, B. A., Van Groenigen, L. J., Lee, J., Lundy, M. E., Van Gestel, N., Six, J., Venterea, R. T., and Van Kessel, C.:
Productivity limits and potentials of the principles of conservation agriculture, Nature, 517, 365–368, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13809, 2015a.
Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., and Döll, P.:
MIRCA2000-Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: A new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gb003435, 2010.
Porwollik, V., Rolinski, S., Heinke, J., von Bloh, W., Schaphoff, S., and Müller, C.: The role of cover crops for cropland soil carbon, nitrogen leaching, and agricultural yields – a global simulation study with LPJmL (V. 5.0-tillage-cc), Biogeosciences, 19, 957–977, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, 2022.
Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Olin, S., Ahlström, A., Bayer, A. D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Lindeskog, M., and Schurgers, G.:
Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124008, 2015.
Sheahan, M. and Barrett, C. B.:
Food loss and waste in Sub-Saharan Africa: A critical review, Food Policy, 70, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.03.012, 2017.
Smith, B., Wårlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.
Smith, P., House, J. I., Bustamante, M., Sobocká, J., Harper, R., Pan, G., West, P. C., Clark, J. M., Adhya, T., Rumpel, C., Paustian, K., Kuikman, P., Cotrufo, M. F., Elliott, J. A., Mcdowell, R., Griffiths, R. I., Asakawa, S., Bondeau, A., Jain, A. K., Meersmans, J., and Pugh, T. A. M.:
Global change pressures on soils from land use and management, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 1008–1028, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13068, 2016.
Smith, P., Calvin, K., Nkem, J., Campbell, D., Cherubini, F., Grassi, G., Korotkov, V., Le Hoang, A., Lwasa, S., McElwee, P., Nkonya, E., Saigusa, N., Soussana, J. F., Taboada, M. A., Manning, F. C., Nampanzira, D., Arias-Navarro, C., Vizzarri, M., House, J., Roe, S., Cowie, A., Rounsevell, M., and Arneth, A.:
Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 1532–1575, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14878, 2020.
Smith, W. N., Grant, B. B., Campbell, C. A., McConkey, B. G., Desjardins, R. L., Kröbel, R., and Malhi, S. S.:
Crop residue removal effects on soil carbon: Measured and inter-model comparisons, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 161, 27–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2012.07.024, 2012.
Sommer, R., Paul, B. K., Mukalama, J., and Kihara, J.:
Reducing losses but failing to sequester carbon in soils – the case of Conservation Agriculture and Integrated Soil Fertility Management in the humid tropical agro-ecosystem of Western Kenya, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 254, 82–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2017.11.004, 2018.
Stathers, T., Holcroft, D., Kitinoja, L., Mvumi, B. M., English, A., Omotilewa, O., Kocher, M., Ault, J., and Torero, M.:
A scoping review of interventions for crop postharvest loss reduction in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Nat. Sustain., 3, 821–835, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00622-1, 2020.
Thierfelder, C., Mwila, M., and Rusinamhodzi, L.:
Conservation agriculture in eastern and southern provinces of Zambia: Long-term effects on soil quality and maize productivity, Soil Till. Res., 126, 246–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2012.09.002, 2013.
Tian, H., Yang, J., Lu, C., Xu, R., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Arneth, A., Chang, J., Chen, G., Ciais, P., Gerber, S., Ito, A., Huang, Y., Joos, F., Lienert, S., Messina, P., Olin, S., Pan, S., Peng, C., Saikawa, E., Thompson, R. L., Vuichard, N., Winiwarter, W., Zaehle, S., Zhang, B., Zhang, K., and Zhu, Q.:
The global N2O model intercomparison project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0212.1, 2018.
Tian, H., Xu, R., Canadell, J. G., Thompson, R. L., Winiwarter, W., Suntharalingam, P., Davidson, E. A., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Prather, M. J., Regnier, P., Pan, N., Pan, S., Peters, G. P., Shi, H., Tubiello, F. N., Zaehle, S., Zhou, F., Arneth, A., Battaglia, G., Berthet, S., Bopp, L., Bouwman, A. F., Buitenhuis, E. T., Chang, J., Chipperfield, M. P., Dangal, S. R. S., Dlugokencky, E., Elkins, J. W., Eyre, B. D., Fu, B., Hall, B., Ito, A., Joos, F., Krummel, P. B., Landolfi, A., Laruelle, G. G., Lauerwald, R., Li, W., Lienert, S., Maavara, T., MacLeod, M., Millet, D. B., Olin, S., Patra, P. K., Prinn, R. G., Raymond, P. A., Ruiz, D. J., van der Werf, G. R., Vuichard, N., Wang, J., Weiss, R. F., Wells, K. C., Wilson, C., Yang, J., and Yao, Y.:
A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks, Nature, 586, 248–256, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2780-0, 2020.
Tonitto, C., David, M. B., and Drinkwater, L. E.:
Replacing bare fallows with cover crops in fertilizer-intensive cropping systems: A meta-analysis of crop yield and N dynamics, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 112, 58–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2005.07.003, 2006.
Valbuena, D., Erenstein, O., Homann-Kee Tui, S., Abdoulaye, T., Claessens, L., Duncan, A. J., Gérard, B., Rufino, M. C., Teufel, N., van Rooyen, A., and van Wijk, M. T.:
Conservation Agriculture in mixed crop-livestock systems: Scoping crop residue trade-offs in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Field Crop. Res., 132, 175–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.02.022, 2012.
Vanlauwe, B., Hungria, M., Kanampiu, F., and Giller, K. E.:
The role of legumes in the sustainable intensification of African smallholder agriculture: Lessons learnt and challenges for the future, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 284, 106583, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2019.106583, 2019.
Wårlind, D., Smith, B., Hickler, T., and Arneth, A.: Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014.
Wynants, M., Kelly, C., Mtei, K., Munishi, L., Patrick, A., Rabinovich, A., Nasseri, M., Gilvear, D., Roberts, N., Boeckx, P., Wilson, G., Blake, W. H., and Ndakidemi, P.:
Drivers of increased soil erosion in East Africa's agro-pastoral systems: changing interactions between the social, economic and natural domains, Reg. Environ. Change, 19, 1909–1921, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01520-9, 2019.
Zaehle, S. and Friend, A. D.:
Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 1. Model description, site-scale evaluation, and sensitivity to parameter estimates, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003521, 2010.
Zhang, B., Tian, H., Lu, C., Dangal, S. R. S., Yang, J., and Pan, S.: Global manure nitrogen production and application in cropland during 1860–2014: a 5 arcmin gridded global dataset for Earth system modeling, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 667–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-667-2017, 2017.
Zhang, X., Zou, T., Lassaletta, L., Mueller, N. D., Tubiello, F. N., Lisk, M. D., Lu, C., Conant, R. T., Dorich, C. D., Gerber, J., Tian, H., Bruulsema, T., Maaz, T. M. C., Nishina, K., Bodirsky, B. L., Popp, A., Bouwman, L., Beusen, A., Chang, J., Havlík, P., Leclère, D., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Heffer, P., Wanner, N., Zhang, W., and Davidson, E. A.:
Quantification of global and national nitrogen budgets for crop production, Nat. Food, 2, 529–540, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00318-5, 2021.
Zhu, Y., Merbold, L., Leitner, S., Pelster, D. E., Okoma, S. A., Ngetich, F., Onyango, A. A., Pellikka, P., and Butterbach-Bahl, K.:
The effects of climate on decomposition of cattle, sheep and goat manure in Kenyan tropical pastures, Plant Soil, 451, 325–343, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-020-04528-x, 2020.
Short summary
Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. We simulated the impacts of seven management practices on soil carbon pools, nitrogen loss, and crop yield under different climate scenarios in this region. This study highlights the possibilities of conservation agriculture when targeting long-term environmental sustainability and food security in crop ecosystems, particularly for those with poor soil conditions in tropical climates.
Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint