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BG | Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
Biogeosciences, 15, 3659–3671, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3659-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 15, 3659–3671, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3659-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 18 Jun 2018

Research article | 18 Jun 2018

Field-warmed soil carbon changes imply high 21st-century modeling uncertainty

Katherine Todd-Brown et al.

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Cited articles

Adachi, Y., Yukimoto, S., Deushi, M., Obata, A., Nakano, H., Tanaka, T. Y., Hosaka, M., Sakami, T., Yoshimura, H., Hirabara, M., Shindo, E., Tsujino, H., Mizuta, R., Yabu, S., Koshiro, T., Ose, T., and Kitoh, A.: Basic performance of a new earth system model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-ESM1), Pap. Meteorol. Geophys., 64, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.2467/mripapers.64.1, 2013. 
Arora, V. K.: Simulating energy and carbon fluxes over winter wheat using coupled land surface and terrestrial ecosystem models, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 118, 21–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00073-X, 2003. 
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 3327–3348, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02202.x, 2010. 
Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V, Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011. 
Bonan, G. B.: A land surface model (LSM version 1.0) for ecological, hydrological and atmospheric studies: technical discription and user's guide, NCAR Tech. note NCAR/TN-417+STR, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6DF6P5X, 1996. 
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
The temperature sensitivity of soil carbon loss is a critical parameter for projecting future CO2. Isolating soil temperature response in the field is challenging due to difficulties isolating root and microbial respiration. We use a database of direct-warming soil carbon changes to generate a new global temperature sensitivity. Incorporating this into Earth system models reduces projected soil carbon. But it also shows that variation due to this parameter is as high as all other causes.
The temperature sensitivity of soil carbon loss is a critical parameter for projecting future...
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