Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020
Research article
 | 
03 Apr 2020
Research article |  | 03 Apr 2020

Spatio-temporal variations and uncertainty in land surface modelling for high latitudes: univariate response analysis

Didier G. Leibovici, Shaun Quegan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Maria Val Martin, Mathieu Guimberteau, Arsène Druel, Dan Zhu, and Philippe Ciais

Related authors

Spatially varying parameters improve carbon cycle modeling in the Amazon rainforest with ORCHIDEE r8849
Lei Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Yitong Yao, Daniel Goll, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Isabel Martínez Cano, Arthur Fendrich, Laurent Li, Hui Yang, Sassan Saatchi, and Wei Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-397,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-397, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Global greenhouse gas reconciliation 2022
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Liting Hu, Adrien Martinez, Marielle Saunois, Rona L. Thompson, Kushal Tibrewal, Wouter Peters, Brendan Byrne, Giacomo Grassi, Paul I. Palmer, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Xuekun Fang, Tengjiao Wang, Hanqin Tian, Katsumasa Tanaka, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Poulter, Clément Albergel, Aki Tsuruta, Shamil Maksyutov, Rajesh Janardanan, Yosuke Niwa, Bo Zheng, Joël Thanwerdas, Dmitry Belikov, Arjo Segers, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1121–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, 2025
Short summary
Global Carbon Budget 2024
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
emIAM v1.0: an emulator for integrated assessment models using marginal abatement cost curves
Weiwei Xiong, Katsumasa Tanaka, Philippe Ciais, Daniel J. A. Johansson, and Mariliis Lehtveer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1575–1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1575-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1575-2025, 2025
Short summary
Global patterns and drivers of climate-driven fires in a warming world
Hemraj Bhattarai, Maria Val Martin, Stephen Sitch, David H. Y. Yung, and Amos P. K. Tai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-804,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-804, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestions for improved simulation of CO2 concentration
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Selecting allometric equations to estimate forest biomass from plot- rather than individual-level predictive performance
Nicolas Picard, Noël Fonton, Faustin Boyemba Bosela, Adeline Fayolle, Joël Loumeto, Gabriel Ngua Ayecaba, Bonaventure Sonké, Olga Diane Yongo Bombo, Hervé Martial Maïdou, and Alfred Ngomanda
Biogeosciences, 22, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1413-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1413-2025, 2025
Short summary
Impact of winter warming on CO2 fluxes in evergreen needleleaf forests
Mana Gharun, Ankit Shekhar, Lukas Hörtnagl, Luana Krebs, Nicola Arriga, Mirco Migliavacca, Marilyn Roland, Bert Gielen, Leonardo Montagnani, Enrico Tomelleri, Ladislav Šigut, Matthias Peichl, Peng Zhao, Marius Schmidt, Thomas Grünwald, Mika Korkiakoski, Annalea Lohila, and Nina Buchmann
Biogeosciences, 22, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1393-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1393-2025, 2025
Short summary
Effects of pH/pCO2 fluctuations on photosynthesis and fatty acid composition of two marine diatoms, with reference to consequences of coastal acidification
Yu Shang, Jingmin Qiu, Yuxi Weng, Xin Wang, Di Zhang, Yuwei Zhou, Juntian Xu, and Futian Li
Biogeosciences, 22, 1203–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1203-2025, 2025
Short summary
Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species
Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 22, 1115–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Andersen, L. K. and Davis, M. D. P.: Climate change and the epidemiology of selected tick-borne and mosquito-borne diseases: update from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Task Force, Int. J. Dermatol., 56, 252–259, https://doi.org/10.1111/ijd.13438, 2017. a, b, c
Asghar, N., Petersson, M., Johansson, M., and Dinnetz, P.: Local landscape effects on population dynamics of Ixodes ricinus, Geospatial Health, 11, 283–289, https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2016.487, 2016. a
Beale, C. M. and Lennon, J. J.: Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 367, 247–258, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0178, 2012. a
Bjerke, J. W., Karlsen, S. R., Høgda, K. A., Malnes, E., Jepsen, J. U., Lovibond, S., Vikhamar-Schuler, D., and Tømmervik, H.: Record-low primary productivity and high plant damage in the Nordic Arctic Region in 2012 caused by multiple weather events and pest outbreaks, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 084006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084006, 2014. a
Blomgren, E., Hesson, J. C., Schäfer, M. L., and Lundström, J. O.: Pest occurrence of Aedes rossicus close to the Arctic Circle in northern Sweden, J. Vector Ecol., 43, 36–43, https://doi.org/10.1111/jvec.12280, 2018. a, b
Download
Short summary
Analysing the impact of environmental changes due to climate change, e.g. geographical spread of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) and agriculture crop modelling, may require land surface modelling (LSM) to predict future land surface conditions. There are multiple LSMs to choose from. The paper proposes a multivariate spatio-temporal data science method to understand the inherent uncertainties in four LSMs and the variations between them in Nordic areas for the net primary production.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint