Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018
Research article
 | 
05 Jan 2018
Research article |  | 05 Jan 2018

Gross changes in forest area shape the future carbon balance of tropical forests

Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Chao Yue, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, and Ana Bastos

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Cited articles

Angelsen, A., Brown, S., Loisel, C., Peskett, L., Streck, C., and Zarin, D.: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD): An Options Assessment Report, available at: http://www.redd-oar.org/links/REDD-OAR_en.pdf (last access: June 2017), 2009. 
Baccini, A., Goetz, S. J., Walker, W. S., Laporte, N. T., Sun, M., Sulla-Menashe, D., Hackler, J., Beck, P. S. A., Dubayah, R., Friedl, M. A., Samanta, S., and Houghton, R. A.: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 182–185, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1354, 2012. 
Bayer, A. D., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Anthoni, P. M., Fuchs, R., and Arneth, A.: Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017. 
Ciais, P., Sabine, C., Bala, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Canadell, J., Chhabra, A., DeFries, R., Galloway, J., Heimann, M., Jones, C., Le Quéré, C., Myneni, R. B., Piao, S., and Thornton, P.: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013. 
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Short summary
We compared the biomass recovery curves from a recent field-based study with those used in bookkeeping models and demonstrated the importance of considering gross forest changes rather than net forest changes. We also derived a critical gross-to-net forest area change ratio, beyond which the sign of carbon flux will be reversed. This critical ratio was further applied to the high-resolution satellite data in the Amazon to distinguish the sensitive regions.
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