Articles | Volume 18, issue 1
Research article 07 Jan 2021
Research article | 07 Jan 2021
Improving the representation of high-latitude vegetation distribution in dynamic global vegetation models
Peter Horvath et al.
No articles found.
Stefanie Falk, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Aud Eriksen, Frode Stordal, and Terje Koren Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ACPShort summary
We evaluate regional and global models for ozone modeling and damage risk mapping of vegetation over subarctic Europe. Our analysis suggests that low-resolution global models do not reproduce the observed ozone seasonal cycle at ground level underestimating ozone by 30–50 %. High-resolution regional models capture the seasonal cycle well still underestimating ozone by up to 20 %. Our proposed gap-filling method for site observations shows a 78 % accuracy compared to the regional model (73 %).
Sara M. Blichner, Moa K. Sporre, Risto Makkonen, and Terje K. Berntsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3335–3359,Short summary
Aerosol–cloud interactions are the largest contributor to climate forcing uncertainty. In this study we combine two common approaches to aerosol representation in global models: a sectional scheme, which is closer to first principals, for the smallest particles forming in the atmosphere and a log-modal scheme, which is faster, for the larger particles. With this approach, we improve the aerosol representation compared to observations, while only increasing the computational cost by 15 %.
Sara Marie Blichner, Moa Kristina Sporre, and Terje Koren Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for ACPShort summary
In this study we quantify how a new way of modeling the formation of new particles in the atmosphere, affects the estimated cooling from aerosol-cloud interactions since pre-industrial times. Our improved scheme merges two common approaches to aerosol modelling: a sectional scheme for treating the early growth and the pre-existing modal scheme in the NorESM. We find that the cooling from aerosol-cloud interactions since pre-industrial time is reduced by 10 % when the new scheme is used.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200,Short summary
The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Sigrid J. Bakke, Monica Ionita, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5621–5653,Short summary
This study provides an in-depth analysis of the 2018 northern European drought. Large parts of the region experienced 60-year record-breaking temperatures, linked to high-pressure systems and warm surrounding seas. Meteorological drought developed from May and, depending on local conditions, led to extreme low flows and groundwater drought in the following months. The 2018 event was unique in that it affected most of Fennoscandia as compared to previous droughts.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993,Short summary
Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals requires both near-zero levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and deep cuts in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Here we quantify the near- and long-term global temperature impacts of emissions of individual SLCFs and CO2 from 7 economic sectors in 13 regions in order to provide the detailed knowledge needed to design efficient mitigation strategies at the sectoral and regional levels.
Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Erik Tijdeman, Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 291–295,Short summary
Numerous indices exist for the description of hydrological drought, some are based on absolute thresholds of overall streamflows or water levels and some are based on relative anomalies with respect to the season. This article discusses paradigms and experiences with such index uses in drought monitoring and drought analysis to raise awareness of the different interpretations of drought severity.
Moa K. Sporre, Sara M. Blichner, Roland Schrödner, Inger H. H. Karset, Terje K. Berntsen, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Declan O'Donnell, and Risto Makkonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8953–8973,Short summary
We investigate how emissions and parameters in current SOA parameterisations in three ESMs affect both the resulting SOA in the models and the impact this has on climate through the direct and indirect aerosol effects. The SOA changes induce very different responses in the models, especially in terms of the indirect aerosol effect. This introduces uncertainties in ESM estimates of SOA climate impact through feedbacks in a warming climate and through anthropogenic land use change.
Maria Sand, Terje K. Berntsen, Annica M. L. Ekman, Hans-Christen Hansson, and Anna Lewinschal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3079–3089,Short summary
There has been a growing interest in reducing emissions of soot particles to slow global warming and improve air quality. However, estimating the effect of reduced emissions is complex, as soot particles absorb solar radiation and influence heating rates, clouds, and humidity and can influence climate far outside their emission region. Here we investigate the impact of soot emitted in four major emissions areas, using different emissions rates, to see whether location and magnitude matter.
Michael Stoelzle, Tobias Schuetz, Markus Weiler, Kerstin Stahl, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 849–867,Short summary
During dry weather, different delayed sources of runoff (e.g. from groundwater, wetlands or snowmelt) modulate the magnitude and variability of streamflow. Hydrograph separation methods often do not distinguish these delayed contributions and mostly pool them into only two components (i.e. quickflow and baseflow). We propose a method that uncovers multiple components and demonstrates how they better reflect streamflow generation processes of different flow regimes.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje Koren Berntsen, and Bjørn Hallvard Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15235–15245,Short summary
Cutting short-lived pollutants can help keep cool the climate – but only if we are clever. We investigate how regional temperatures may change in response to different packages of air quality measures. One package consists of mitigation measures that mainly target emissions that are known to result in a cooler climate, while in the other, emissions are cut as much as technically possible in response to air quality concerns. We estimate the different contributions from various sectors and region.
Helene Birkelund Erlandsen, Lena Merete Tallaksen, and Jørn Kristiansen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 797–821,Short summary
Robust estimates of runoff, snow, and evaporation rely on high-quality estimates of incoming solar and thermal radiation at the surface and near surface humidity. Taking advantage of the physical soundness of a numerical weather reanalysis and the preciseness and spatial resolution of a national gridded temperature data set, new estimates of these variables are presented for Norway. Further, existing data sets and observations are compared, emphasizing daily correlation, trends, and gradients.
Flavio Justino, Fred Kucharski, Douglas Lindemann, Aaron Wilson, and Frode Stordal
Clim. Past, 15, 735–749,Short summary
This study evaluates the impact of enhanced seasonality characteristic of the Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS31) on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based upon coupled climate simulations driven by present-day (CTR) and MIS31 boundary conditions, we demonstrate that MIS31 does show a strong power spectrum at interannual timescales but the absence of decadal periodicity. The implementation of the MIS31 conditions results in a distinct global monsoon system and its link to the ENSO.
Moa K. Sporre, Sara M. Blichner, Inger H. H. Karset, Risto Makkonen, and Terje K. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4763–4782,Short summary
In this study, an Earth system model has been used to investigate climate feedbacks associated with increasing BVOC emissions due to higher CO2 concentrations and temperatures. Higher BVOC emissions associated with a changed climate are found to induce an important negative climate feedback through increased aerosol formation and resulting changes in cloud properties. This feedback is found to have the potential to offset about 13 % of the radiative forcing associated with a doubling of CO2.
Anna Lewinschal, Annica M. L. Ekman, Hans-Christen Hansson, Maria Sand, Terje K. Berntsen, and Joakim Langner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2385–2403,Short summary
We use a global climate model to study how anthropogenic emissions of short-lived atmospheric particles in different parts of the world influence the global temperature distribution. We find that the global mean temperature change per unit emission is similar for all emission regions, and the largest temperature response is found in the Arctic no matter where the emissions occur. However, for European emissions, the temperature change per unit emission is found to depend on emission strength.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609,Short summary
Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Trine J. Hegdahl, Kolbjørn Engeland, Ingelin Steinsland, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 723–739,Short summary
Flood forecasting relies on high-quality meteorological data. This study shows how improved temperature forecasts improve streamflow forecasts in most cases, with the degree of improvement depending on season and region. To improve temperature forecasts further, catchment-specific methods should be developed to account for these seasonal and regional differences. In short, for climates with a seasonal snow cover, higher-quality temperature forecasts clearly improve flood forecasts.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Bob van Oort, Flavio Justino, Frode Stordal, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, Helene B. Erlandsen, Jana Sillmann, and Milton E. Pereira-Flores
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 4, 37–52,Short summary
A new study indicates that heatwaves in India will become more frequent and last longer with global warming. Its results were derived from a large number of global climate models, and the calculations differed from previous studies in the way they included advanced statistical theory. The projected changes in the Indian heatwaves will have a negative consequence for wheat crops in India.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894,Short summary
A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Terje Koren Berntsen, Trude Storelvmo, Kari Alterskjær, Alf Grini, Dirk Olivié, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7669–7690,Short summary
This study highlights the role of oxidants in modeling of the preindustrial-to-present-day aerosol indirect effects. We argue that the aerosol precursor gases should be exposed to oxidants of its era to get a more correct representation of secondary aerosol formation. Our global model simulations show that the total aerosol indirect effect changes from −1.32 to −1.07 W m−2 when the precursor gases in the preindustrial simulation are exposed to preindustrial instead of present-day oxidants.
Maria Sand, Bjørn H. Samset, Yves Balkanski, Susanne Bauer, Nicolas Bellouin, Terje K. Berntsen, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl, Richard Easter, Steven J. Ghan, Trond Iversen, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Guangxing Lin, Xiaohong Liu, Gan Luo, Gunnar Myhre, Twan van Noije, Joyce E. Penner, Michael Schulz, Øyvind Seland, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Fangqun Yu, Kai Zhang, and Hua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12197–12218,Short summary
The role of aerosols in the changing polar climate is not well understood and the aerosols are poorly constrained in the models. In this study we have compared output from 16 different aerosol models with available observations at both poles. We show that the model median is representative of the observations, but the model spread is large. The Arctic direct aerosol radiative effect over the industrial area is positive during spring due to black carbon and negative during summer due to sulfate.
Johanne H. Rydsaa, Frode Stordal, Anders Bryn, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 14, 4209–4227,Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric sensitivity to an expansion in shrub and tree cover in the northern Fennoscandia region. We applied a regional weather and climate model in evaluating biophysical effects of increased shrub cover at a fine resolution. We find that shrub cover increase causes a warming that is sensitive to the shrub and tree heights. Cooling effects include increased snow cover, cloud cover, and precipitation. We show that the net warming will likely increase in the future.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10795–10809,Short summary
The climate impacts for emissions of different pollutants can be made comparable with weighting factors. This article estimates these weights based on temperature change for short-lived pollutants, such as methane and black carbon. Emissions from different seasons and regions are compared, for instance Europe and East Asia. The responses are calculated for four regions, where we see that the responses can be much higher in the Arctic than globally in some cases.
Flavio Justino, Douglas Lindemann, Fred Kucharski, Aaron Wilson, David Bromwich, and Frode Stordal
Clim. Past, 13, 1081–1095,Short summary
These modeling results have enormous implications for paleoreconstructions of the MIS31 climate that assume overall ice-free conditions in the vicinity of the Antarctic continent. Since these reconstructions may depict dominant signals in a particular time interval and locale, they cannot be assumed to geographically represent large-scale domains, and their ability to reproduce long-term environmental conditions should be considered with care.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Terje Berntsen, Lisa Bock, Ulrike Burkhardt, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Keith P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 547–563,
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024,Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Marianne T. Lund, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6003–6022,Short summary
This study investigates possibilities for improving the representation of black carbon (BC) distribution in a global atmospheric chemistry-transport model by exploring uncertainties in key processes controlling the removal of aerosols from the atmosphere. Our results provide an increased understanding of the processes contributing to uncertainties in the BC abundance and climate impact and underline the importance of more observations and experimental data further constrain models.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Glen P. Peters
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Monica Ionita, Lena M. Tallaksen, Daniel G. Kingston, James H. Stagge, Gregor Laaha, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Patrick Scholz, Silvia M. Chelcea, and Klaus Haslinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1397–1419,Short summary
This paper analyses the European summer drought of 2015 from a climatological perspective, including its origin and spatial and temporal development, and how it compares with the 2003 event. It discusses the main contributing factors controlling the occurrence and persistence of the event: temperature and precipitation anomalies, blocking episodes and sea surface temperatures. The results represent the outcome of a collaborative initiative of members of UNESCO’s FRIEND-Water program.
Christine Smith-Johnsen, Yvan Orsolini, Frode Stordal, Varavut Limpasuvan, and Kristell Pérot
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.,
Preprint withdrawnShort summary
Mesospheric ozone enhancements during sudden stratospheric warmings in the northern hemisphere have been reported in the literature. In the southern hemisphere, only one warming event has occurred, and this paper is the first to explain the mesospheric ozone enhancement during this event in 2002, using both a whole atmosphere chemistry climate model and satellite observations from GOMOS.
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650,Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
Veit Blauhut, Kerstin Stahl, James Howard Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Lucia De Stefano, and Jürgen Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800,
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7451–7468,
Kjetil S. Aas, Thorben Dunse, Emily Collier, Thomas V. Schuler, Terje K. Berntsen, Jack Kohler, and Bartłomiej Luks
The Cryosphere, 10, 1089–1104,Short summary
A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere--climatic mass balance (CMB) model is applied to Svalbard for the period 2003 to 2013. The mean CMB during this period is negative but displays large spatial and temporal variations. Comparison with observations on different scales shows a good overall model performance except for one particular glacier, where wind strongly affects the spatial patterns of CMB. The model also shows considerable sensitivity to model resolution, especially on local scales.
Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Veit Blauhut, Julia Urquijo, Lucia De Stefano, Vanda Acácio, Susana Dias, James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Eleni Kampragou, Anne F. Van Loon, Lucy J. Barker, Lieke A. Melsen, Carlo Bifulco, Dario Musolino, Alessandro de Carli, Antonio Massarutto, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819,Short summary
Based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), the study presents an assessment of the occurrence and diversity of drought impacts across Europe. A unique research database has collected close to 5000 textual drought impact reports from 33 European countries. Consistently, reported impacts have been dominated in number by agriculture and water supply, but were very diverse across other sectors. Data and assessment may help drought policy planning at the international level.
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566,Short summary
This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
S. Eckhardt, B. Quennehen, D. J. L. Olivié, T. K. Berntsen, R. Cherian, J. H. Christensen, W. Collins, S. Crepinsek, N. Daskalakis, M. Flanner, A. Herber, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, L. Huang, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, J. Langner, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Mahmood, A. Massling, S. Myriokefalitakis, I. E. Nielsen, J. K. Nøjgaard, J. Quaas, P. K. Quinn, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, S. Sharma, R. B. Skeie, H. Skov, T. Uttal, K. von Salzen, and A. Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9413–9433,Short summary
The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from different updated models and emissions against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set. We find that the models improved but still struggle to get the maximum concentrations.
A. K. Fleig, L. M. Tallaksen, P. James, H. Hisdal, and K. Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3093–3107,
J. H. Rydsaa, F. Stordal, and L. M. Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 12, 3071–3087,Short summary
MODIS land surface data with WRF V3.5.1 and Noah LSM is used to investigate the sensitivity of the atmosphere to changes in structural vegetation in the boreal ecosystem. Results show that high north evergreen forest expansion leads to larger latent heat fluxes, while increased summer precipitation and reduced wind speed lead to lower sensible heat flux. Replacement of evergreen forest with mixed forest have largely opposite effects, moderating the regional effects on the atmosphere.
R. P. Bartholomeus, J. H. Stagge, L. M. Tallaksen, and J. P. M. Witte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 997–1014,Short summary
We used the past century’s time series of observed climate, containing non-stationary signals of atmospheric oscillations, global warming, and global dimming/brightening, to quantify possible systematic errors that may be introduced in estimates of potential evaporation and in hydrological modeling studies due to straightforward application of i) the common two-step approach for potential evaporation specifically, and ii) fixed instead of time-variant model parameters in general.
H. Tang, J. T. Eronen, A. Kaakinen, T. Utescher, B. Ahrens, and M. Fortelius
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Preprint withdrawnShort summary
Our climate model results suggest that a stronger-than-present winter monsoon wind may account for the cooler winter temperature in southern China and northern India in the Late Miocene as indicated by the proxy data. The strong winter monsoon wind in the Late Miocene can be attributed to the lower elevation of the northern Tibetan Plateau and mountains north of it. The modern-like winter monsoon variation may not have been established in the Late Miocene.
J. Liakka, J. T. Eronen, H. Tang, and F. T. Portmann
Clim. Past Discuss.,
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, A. Herber, Y. Kondo, S.-M. Li, N. Moteki, M. Koike, N. Oshima, J. P. Schwarz, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, M. Chin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12465–12477,Short summary
Far from black carbon (BC) emission sources, present climate models are unable to reproduce flight measurements. By comparing recent models with data, we find that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in models. By adjusting modeled BC concentrations to measurements in remote regions - over oceans and at high altitudes - we arrive at a reduced estimate for BC radiative forcing over the industrial era.
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895,
R. B. Skeie, T. Berntsen, M. Aldrin, M. Holden, and G. Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 139–175,
C. Jiao, M. G. Flanner, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, N. De Luca, T. Diehl, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, X. Liu, G. W. Mann, J. E. Penner, G. Pitari, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, S. D. Steenrod, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, T. van Noije, Y. Yun, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2399–2417,
M. von Hobe, S. Bekki, S. Borrmann, F. Cairo, F. D'Amato, G. Di Donfrancesco, A. Dörnbrack, A. Ebersoldt, M. Ebert, C. Emde, I. Engel, M. Ern, W. Frey, S. Genco, S. Griessbach, J.-U. Grooß, T. Gulde, G. Günther, E. Hösen, L. Hoffmann, V. Homonnai, C. R. Hoyle, I. S. A. Isaksen, D. R. Jackson, I. M. Jánosi, R. L. Jones, K. Kandler, C. Kalicinsky, A. Keil, S. M. Khaykin, F. Khosrawi, R. Kivi, J. Kuttippurath, J. C. Laube, F. Lefèvre, R. Lehmann, S. Ludmann, B. P. Luo, M. Marchand, J. Meyer, V. Mitev, S. Molleker, R. Müller, H. Oelhaf, F. Olschewski, Y. Orsolini, T. Peter, K. Pfeilsticker, C. Piesch, M. C. Pitts, L. R. Poole, F. D. Pope, F. Ravegnani, M. Rex, M. Riese, T. Röckmann, B. Rognerud, A. Roiger, C. Rolf, M. L. Santee, M. Scheibe, C. Schiller, H. Schlager, M. Siciliani de Cumis, N. Sitnikov, O. A. Søvde, R. Spang, N. Spelten, F. Stordal, O. Sumińska-Ebersoldt, A. Ulanovski, J. Ungermann, S. Viciani, C. M. Volk, M. vom Scheidt, P. von der Gathen, K. Walker, T. Wegner, R. Weigel, S. Weinbruch, G. Wetzel, F. G. Wienhold, I. Wohltmann, W. Woiwode, I. A. K. Young, V. Yushkov, B. Zobrist, and F. Stroh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9233–9268,
H. A. J. Van Lanen, N. Wanders, L. M. Tallaksen, and A. F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1715–1732,
M. S. Eide, S. B. Dalsøren, Ø. Endresen, B. Samset, G. Myhre, J. Fuglestvedt, and T. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4183–4201,
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634,
B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, Y. Balkanski, S. Bauer, T. K. Berntsen, H. Bian, N. Bellouin, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, T. Iversen, S. Kinne, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Lin, X. Liu, J. E. Penner, Ø. Seland, R. B. Skeie, P. Stier, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2423–2434,
A. Hilboll, A. Richter, A. Rozanov, Ø. Hodnebrog, A. Heckel, S. Solberg, F. Stordal, and J. P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 565–584,
M. Sand, T. K. Berntsen, J. E. Kay, J. F. Lamarque, Ø. Seland, and A. Kirkevåg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 211–224,
Ø. Hodnebrog, T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, M. J. Prather, F. Stordal, S. Szopa, Q. Tang, P. van Velthoven, and J. E. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12211–12225,
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, TerrestrialEstimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate changeAn improved process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model for simulating dynamic fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide in alpine ecosystems with seasonally frozen soilsA novel representation of biological nitrogen fixation and competitive dynamics between nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing plants in a land model (GFDL LM4.1-BNF)Organic phosphorus cycling may control grassland responses to nitrogen deposition: a long-term field manipulation and modelling studyA triple tree-ring constraint for tree growth and physiology in a global land surface modelSimulating shrubs and their energy and carbon dioxide fluxes in Canada's Low Arctic with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC)Competing effects of nitrogen deposition and ozone exposure on northern hemispheric terrestrial carbon uptake and storage, 1850–2099Theoretical insights from upscaling Michaelis-Menten microbial dynamics in biogeochemical models: a dimensionless approachCarbonyl sulfide: comparing a mechanistic representation of the vegetation uptake in a land surface model and the leaf relative uptake approachOptimal model complexity for terrestrial carbon cycle predictionCO2 physiological effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the AmazonPlant phenology evaluation of CRESCENDO land surface models – Part 1: Start and end of the growing seasonUnderstanding the effect of fire on vegetation composition and gross primary production in a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) modelImpacts of fertilization on grassland productivity and water quality across the European Alps under current and warming climate: insights from a mechanistic modelThe climate benefit of carbon sequestrationExtending a land-surface model with Sphagnum moss to simulate responses of a northern temperate bog to whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2Robust processing of airborne laser scans to plant area density profilesInvestigating the sensitivity of soil heterotrophic respiration to recent snow cover changes in Alaska using a satellite-based permafrost carbon modelHysteretic temperature sensitivity of wetland CH4 fluxes explained by substrate availability and microbial activityModelling the habitat preference of two key Sphagnum species in a poor fen as controlled by capitulum water contentEvaluating two soil carbon models within the global land surface model JSBACH using surface and spaceborne observations of atmospheric CO2Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem SimulatorMicrobial dormancy and its impacts on northern temperate and boreal terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgetHistorical CO2 emissions from land use and land cover change and their uncertaintyA Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical modelsRainfall intensification increases the contribution of rewetting pulses to soil heterotrophic respirationWide discrepancies in the magnitude and direction of modeled solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence in response to light conditionsModeling biological nitrogen fixation in global natural terrestrial ecosystemsThe impact of a simple representation of non-structural carbohydrates on the simulated response of tropical forests to droughtBenchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, PanamaModelling nitrification inhibitor effects on N2O emissions after fall- and spring-applied slurry by reducing nitrifier NH4+ oxidation rateDRIFTS band areas as measured pool size proxy to reduce parameter uncertainty in soil organic matter modelsWintertime grassland dynamics may influence belowground biomass under climate change: a model analysisLow sensitivity of gross primary production to elevated CO2 in a mature eucalypt woodlandMetabolic tradeoffs and heterogeneity in microbial responses to temperature determine the fate of litter carbon in simulations of a warmer worldCompetition alters predicted forest carbon cycle responses to nitrogen availability and elevated CO2: simulations using an explicitly competitive, game-theoretic vegetation demographic modelThe importance of physiological, structural and trait responses to drought stress in driving spatial and temporal variation in GPP across Amazon forestsModelling the response of net primary productivity of the Zambezi teak forests to climate change along a rainfall gradient in ZambiaThree decades of simulated global terrestrial carbon fluxes from a data assimilation system confronted with different periods of observationsUsing a modified DNDC biogeochemical model to optimize field management of a multi-crop (cotton, wheat, and maize) system: a site-scale case study in northern ChinaDecadal fates and impacts of nitrogen additions on temperate forest carbon storage: a data–model comparisonGlobal NO and HONO emissions of biological soil crusts estimated by a process-based non-vascular vegetation modelEstimating the soil N2O emission intensity of croplands in northwest EuropeUnifying soil organic matter formation and persistence frameworks: the MEMS modelEvaluating the simulated mean soil carbon transit times by Earth system models using observationsModeling anaerobic soil organic carbon decomposition in Arctic polygon tundra: insights into soil geochemical influences on carbon mineralizationNeglecting plant–microbe symbioses leads to underestimation of modeled climate impactsA simple time-stepping scheme to simulate leaf area index, phenology, and gross primary production across deciduous broadleaf forests in the eastern United StatesQuantifying global N2O emissions from natural ecosystem soils using trait-based biogeochemistry modelsOptimal inverse estimation of ecosystem parameters from observations of carbon and energy fluxes
Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 18, 4937–4952,Short summary
Permafrost soils hold about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. As the Earth warms the organic matter in these soils will decay, releasing CO2 and CH4. It is expected that these soils will continue to release carbon to the atmosphere long after man-made emissions of greenhouse gases cease. Here we use a method employing hundreds of slightly varying model versions to estimate how much warming permafrost carbon will cause after human emissions of CO2 end.
Wei Zhang, Zhisheng Yao, Siqi Li, Xunhua Zheng, Han Zhang, Lei Ma, Kai Wang, Rui Wang, Chunyan Liu, Shenghui Han, Jia Deng, and Yong Li
Biogeosciences, 18, 4211–4225,Short summary
The hydro-biogeochemical model Catchment Nutrient Management Model – DeNitrification-DeComposition (CNMM-DNDC) is improved by incorporating a soil thermal module to simulate the soil thermal regime in the presence of freeze–thaw cycles. The modified model is validated at a seasonally frozen catchment with typical alpine ecosystems (wetland, meadow and forest). The simulated aggregate emissions of methane and nitrous oxide are highest for the wetland, which is dominated by the methane emissions.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Sergey Malyshev, Isabel Martínez Cano, Stephen W. Pacala, Elena Shevliakova, Thomas A. Bytnerowicz, and Duncan N. L. Menge
Biogeosciences, 18, 4143–4183,Short summary
Representing biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is an important challenge for land models. We present a novel representation of BNF and updated nitrogen cycling in a land model. It includes a representation of asymbiotic BNF by soil microbes and the competitive dynamics between nitrogen-fixing and non-fixing plants. It improves estimations of major carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes and their temporal dynamics in comparison to previous representations of BNF in land models.
Christopher R. Taylor, Victoria Janes-Bassett, Gareth K. Phoenix, Ben Keane, Iain P. Hartley, and Jessica A. C. Davies
Biogeosciences, 18, 4021–4037,Short summary
We used experimental data to model two phosphorus-limited grasslands and investigated their response to nitrogen (N) deposition. Greater uptake of organic P facilitated a positive response to N deposition, stimulating growth and soil carbon storage. Where organic P access was less, N deposition exacerbated P demand and reduced plant C input to the soil. This caused more C to be released into the atmosphere than is taken in, reducing the climate-mitigation capacity of the modelled grassland.
Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Thomas Launois, Valerie Daux, Camille Risi, Jina Jeong, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 18, 3781–3803,Short summary
The width and the chemical signals of tree rings have the potential to test and improve the physiological responses simulated by global land surface models, which are at the core of future climate projections. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of tree-ring width and carbon and oxygen stable isotopes to evaluate the representation of tree growth and physiology in a global land surface model at temporal scales beyond experimentation and direct observation.
Gesa Meyer, Elyn R. Humphreys, Joe R. Melton, Alex J. Cannon, and Peter M. Lafleur
Biogeosciences, 18, 3263–3283,Short summary
Shrub and sedge plant functional types (PFTs) were incorporated in the land surface component of the Canadian Earth System Model to improve representation of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Evaluated against 14 years of non-winter measurements, the magnitude and seasonality of carbon dioxide and energy fluxes at a Canadian dwarf-shrub tundra site were better captured by the shrub PFTs than by previously used grass and tree PFTs. Model simulations showed the tundra site to be an annual net CO2 source.
Martina Franz and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 3219–3241,Short summary
The combined effects of ozone and nitrogen deposition on the terrestrial carbon uptake and storage has been unclear. Our simulations, from 1850 to 2099, show that ozone-related damage considerably reduced gross primary production and carbon storage in the past. The growth-stimulating effect induced by nitrogen deposition is offset until the 2050s. Accounting for nitrogen deposition without considering ozone effects might lead to an overestimation of terrestrial carbon uptake and storage.
Chris H. Wilson and Stefan Gerber
Revised manuscript accepted for BGShort summary
To better mitigate against climate change, it is imperative that ecosystem scientists understand how microbes decompose organic carbon in the soil, and thereby release it as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A major challenge is the high variability across ecosystems in microbial biomass, and in the environmental factors like temperature that drive their activity. In this paper, we use math to better understand this how this variability impacts carbon dioxide release over large scales.
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955,Short summary
The assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) by continental vegetation has been proposed as a proxy for gross primary production (GPP). Using a land surface and a transport model, we compare a mechanistic representation of the plant COS uptake (Berry et al., 2013) to the classical leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach linking GPP and vegetation COS fluxes. We show that at high temporal resolutions a mechanistic approach is mandatory, but at large scales the LRU approach compares similarly.
Caroline A. Famiglietti, T. Luke Smallman, Paul A. Levine, Sophie Flack-Prain, Gregory R. Quetin, Victoria Meyer, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Stephanie G. Stettz, Yan Yang, Damien Bonal, A. Anthony Bloom, Mathew Williams, and Alexandra G. Konings
Biogeosciences, 18, 2727–2754,Short summary
Model uncertainty dominates the spread in terrestrial carbon cycle predictions. Efforts to reduce it typically involve adding processes, thereby increasing model complexity. However, if and how model performance scales with complexity is unclear. Using a suite of 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models, we find that increased complexity only improves skill if parameters are adequately informed. Otherwise, it can degrade skill, and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal.
Gilvan Sampaio, Marília H. Shimizu, Carlos A. Guimarães-Júnior, Felipe Alexandre, Marcelo Guatura, Manoel Cardoso, Tomas F. Domingues, Anja Rammig, Celso von Randow, Luiz F. C. Rezende, and David M. Lapola
Biogeosciences, 18, 2511–2525,Short summary
The impact of large-scale deforestation and the physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on Amazon rainfall are systematically compared in this study. Our results are remarkable in showing that the two disturbances cause equivalent rainfall decrease, though through different causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of not only curbing regional deforestation but also reducing global CO2 emissions to avoid climatic changes in the Amazon.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428,Short summary
Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Karun Pandit, Hamid Dashti, Andrew T. Hudak, Nancy F. Glenn, Alejandro N. Flores, and Douglas J. Shinneman
Biogeosciences, 18, 2027–2045,Short summary
A dynamic global vegetation model, Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2), is used to understand spatiotemporal dynamics of a semi-arid shrub ecosystem under alternative fire regimes. Multi-decadal point simulations suggest shrub dominance for a non-fire scenario and a contrasting phase of shrub and C3 grass growth for a fire scenario. Regional gross primary productivity (GPP) simulations indicate moderate agreement with MODIS GPP and a GPP reduction in fire-affected areas before showing some recovery.
Martina Botter, Matthias Zeeman, Paolo Burlando, and Simone Fatichi
Biogeosciences, 18, 1917–1939,
Carlos A. Sierra, Susan E. Crow, Martin Heimann, Holger Metzler, and Ernst-Detlef Schulze
Biogeosciences, 18, 1029–1048,Short summary
The climate benefit of carbon sequestration (CBS) is a metric developed to quantify avoided warming by two separate processes: the amount of carbon drawdown from the atmosphere and the time this carbon is stored in a reservoir. This metric can be useful for quantifying the role of forests and soils for climate change mitigation and to better quantify the benefits of carbon removals by sinks.
Xiaoying Shi, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Peter E. Thornton, Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Richard J. Norby, Anthony P. Walker, Jeffrey M. Warren, Jiafu Mao, Paul J. Hanson, Lin Meng, David Weston, and Natalie A. Griffiths
Biogeosciences, 18, 467–486,Short summary
The Sphagnum mosses are the important species of a wetland ecosystem. To better represent the peatland ecosystem, we introduced the moss species to the land model component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing water content dynamics and nonvascular photosynthetic processes for moss. We tested the model against field observations and used the model to make projections of the site's carbon cycle under warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios.
Johan Arnqvist, Julia Freier, and Ebba Dellwik
Biogeosciences, 17, 5939–5952,Short summary
Data generated by airborne laser scans enable the characterization of surface vegetation for any application that might need it, such as forest management, modeling for numerical weather prediction, or wind energy estimation. In this work we present a new algorithm for calculating the vegetation density using data from airborne laser scans. The new routine is more robust than earlier methods, and an implementation in popular programming languages accompanies the article to support new users.
Yonghong Yi, John S. Kimball, Jennifer D. Watts, Susan M. Natali, Donatella Zona, Junjie Liu, Masahito Ueyama, Hideki Kobayashi, Walter Oechel, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 17, 5861–5882,Short summary
We developed a 1 km satellite-data-driven permafrost carbon model to evaluate soil respiration sensitivity to recent snow cover changes in Alaska. Results show earlier snowmelt enhances growing-season soil respiration and reduces annual carbon uptake, while early cold-season soil respiration is linked to the number of snow-free days after the land surface freezes. Our results also show nonnegligible influences of subgrid variability in surface conditions on model-simulated CO2 seasonal cycles.
Kuang-Yu Chang, William J. Riley, Patrick M. Crill, Robert F. Grant, and Scott R. Saleska
Biogeosciences, 17, 5849–5860,Short summary
Methane (CH4) is a strong greenhouse gas that can accelerate climate change and offset mitigation efforts. A key assumption embedded in many large-scale climate models is that ecosystem CH4 emissions can be estimated by fixed temperature relations. Here, we demonstrate that CH4 emissions cannot be parameterized by emergent temperature response alone due to variability driven by microbial and abiotic interactions. We also provide mechanistic understanding for observed CH4 emission hysteresis.
Jinnan Gong, Nigel Roulet, Steve Frolking, Heli Peltola, Anna M. Laine, Nicola Kokkonen, and Eeva-Stiina Tuittila
Biogeosciences, 17, 5693–5719,Short summary
In this study, which combined a field and lab experiment with modelling, we developed a process-based model for simulating dynamics within peatland moss communities. The model is useful because Sphagnum mosses are key engineers in peatlands; their response to changes in climate via altered hydrology controls the feedback of peatland biogeochemistry to climate. Our work showed that moss capitulum traits related to water retention are the mechanism controlling moss layer dynamics in peatlands.
Tea Thum, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Jari Liski, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Tiina Markkanen, Julia Pongratz, Yukio Yoshida, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 17, 5721–5743,Short summary
Global vegetation models are important tools in estimating the impacts of global climate change. The fate of soil carbon is of the upmost importance as its emissions will enhance the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. To evaluate the skill of global vegetation models to model the soil carbon and its responses to environmental factors, it is important to use different data sources. We evaluated two different soil carbon models by using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Maoyi Huang, Yi Xu, Marcos Longo, Michael Keller, Ryan G. Knox, Charles D. Koven, and Rosie A. Fisher
Biogeosciences, 17, 4999–5023,Short summary
The Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is enhanced to mimic the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed forest; and modifying the biomass, coarse woody debris, and litter pools. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES as part of an Earth system model.
Junrong Zha and Qianla Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 17, 4591–4610,Short summary
This study incorporated microbial dormancy into a detailed microbe-based biogeochemistry model to examine the fate of Arctic carbon budgets under changing climate conditions. Compared with the model without microbial dormancy, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last and current century. This study highlights the importance of the representation of microbial dormancy in earth system models to adequately quantify the carbon dynamics in the Arctic.
Thomas Gasser, Léa Crepin, Yann Quilcaille, Richard A. Houghton, Philippe Ciais, and Michael Obersteiner
Biogeosciences, 17, 4075–4101,Short summary
We combine several lines of evidence to provide a robust estimate of historical CO2 emissions from land use change. Our novel approach leads to reduced uncertainty and identifies key remaining sources of uncertainty and discrepancy. We also quantify the carbon removal by natural ecosystems that would have occurred if these ecosystems had not been destroyed (mostly via deforestation). Over the last decade, this foregone carbon sink amounted to about 50 % of the actual emissions.
Hua W. Xie, Adriana L. Romero-Olivares, Michele Guindani, and Steven D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 17, 4043–4057,Short summary
Soil biogeochemical models (SBMs) are needed to predict future soil CO2 emissions levels, but we presently lack statistically rigorous frameworks for assessing the predictive utility of SBMs. In this study, we demonstrate one possible approach to evaluating SBMs by comparing the fits of two models to soil CO2 respiration data with recently developed Bayesian statistical goodness-of-fit metrics. Our results demonstrate that our approach is a viable one for continued development and refinement.
Stefano Manzoni, Arjun Chakrawal, Thomas Fischer, Joshua P. Schimel, Amilcare Porporato, and Giulia Vico
Biogeosciences, 17, 4007–4023,Short summary
Carbon dioxide is produced by soil microbes through respiration, which is particularly fast when soils are moistened by rain. Will respiration increase with future more intense rains and longer dry spells? With a mathematical model, we show that wetter conditions increase respiration. In contrast, if rainfall totals stay the same, but rain comes all at once after long dry spells, the average respiration will not change, but the contribution of the respiration bursts after rain will increase.
Nicholas C. Parazoo, Troy Magney, Alex Norton, Brett Raczka, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Ian Baker, Yongguang Zhang, Bo Qiu, Mingjie Shi, Natasha MacBean, Dave R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Peter D. Blanken, Jochen Stutz, Katja Grossmann, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 17, 3733–3755,Short summary
Satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provide a global measure of photosynthetic change. This enables scientists to better track carbon cycle responses to environmental change and tune biochemical processes in vegetation models for an improved simulation of future change. We use tower-instrumented SIF measurements and controlled model experiments to assess the state of the art in terrestrial biosphere SIF modeling and find a wide range of sensitivities to light.
Tong Yu and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 17, 3643–3657,Short summary
Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) plays an important role in the global nitrogen cycle. However, the fixation rate has usually been measured or estimated at a particular observational site. This study develops a BNF model considering the symbiotic relationship between legume plants and bacteria. The model is extensively calibrated with site-level observational data and then extrapolated to the global terrestrial ecosystems to quantify the fixation rate in the 1990s.
Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Anna B. Harper
Biogeosciences, 17, 3589–3612,Short summary
Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are an important set of molecules that help plants to grow and respire when photosynthesis is restricted by extreme climate events. In this paper we present a simple model of NSC storage and assess the effect that it has on simulations of vegetation at the ecosystem scale. Our model has the potential to significantly change predictions of plant behaviour in global vegetation models, which would have large implications for predictions of the future climate.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044,Short summary
Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Robert F. Grant, Sisi Lin, and Guillermo Hernandez-Ramirez
Biogeosciences, 17, 2021–2039,Short summary
Nitrification inhibitors (NI) have been shown to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide (N20), a potent greenhouse gas, from fertilizer and manure applied to agricultural fields. However difficulties in measuring N20 emissions limit our ability to estimate these reductions. Here we propose and test a mathematical model that may allow us to estimate these reductions under diverse site conditions. These estimates will be useful in determining emission factors for NI-amended fertilizer and manure.
Moritz Laub, Michael Scott Demyan, Yvonne Funkuin Nkwain, Sergey Blagodatsky, Thomas Kätterer, Hans-Peter Piepho, and Georg Cadisch
Biogeosciences, 17, 1393–1413,Short summary
Loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere represents a global challenge. We tested an innovative way to reduce the high uncertainty related to turnover of carbon stored in soils. With the use of infrared spectra of soils from model bare fallow systems, we were able to better assess the current state of soil carbon and predict its behavior in overdecadal time spans. In agreement with recent studies, carbon turnover seems faster than earlier assumed, with potential for high loss under mismanagement.
Genki Katata, Rüdiger Grote, Matthias Mauder, Matthias J. Zeeman, and Masakazu Ota
Biogeosciences, 17, 1071–1085,Short summary
In this paper, we demonstrate that high physiological activity levels during the extremely warm winter are allocated into the below-ground biomass and only to a minor extent used for additional plant growth during early spring. This process is so far largely unaccounted for in scenario analysis using global terrestrial biosphere models, and it may lead to carbon accumulation in the soil and/or carbon loss from the soil as a response to global warming.
Jinyan Yang, Belinda E. Medlyn, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko A. Duursma, Mingkai Jiang, Dushan Kumarathunge, Kristine Y. Crous, Teresa E. Gimeno, Agnieszka Wujeska-Klause, and David S. Ellsworth
Biogeosciences, 17, 265–279,Short summary
This study addressed a major knowledge gap in the response of forest productivity to elevated CO2. We first quantified forest productivity of an evergreen forest under both ambient and elevated CO2, using a model constrained by in situ measurements. The simulation showed the canopy productivity response to elevated CO2 to be smaller than that at the leaf scale due to different limiting processes. This finding provides a key reference for the understanding of CO2 impacts on forest ecosystems.
Grace Pold, Seeta A. Sistla, and Kristen M. DeAngelis
Biogeosciences, 16, 4875–4888,Short summary
The litter decomposition model DEMENT was run under ambient temperatures and with 5 °C; of warming. We found that the loss of litter carbon to the atmosphere as CO2 was exacerbated by warming when the microbes in the model differed in their temperature responses, compared to when all microbes responded identically to warming. Our results therefore indicate that predicted changes in litter carbon stocks are sensitive to heterogeneity in key parameters of soil decomposer physiology.
Ensheng Weng, Ray Dybzinski, Caroline E. Farrior, and Stephen W. Pacala
Biogeosciences, 16, 4577–4599,Short summary
Our study illustrates that the competition processes for light and soil resources in a game-theoretic vegetation demographic model can substantially change the prediction of the contribution of ecosystems to the global carbon cycle. The model that tracks the competitive allocation strategies can generate significantly different ecosystem-level predictions than those with fixed allocation strategies.
Sophie Flack-Prain, Patrick Meir, Yadvinder Malhi, Thomas Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams
Biogeosciences, 16, 4463–4484,Short summary
Across the Amazon rainforest, trees take in carbon through photosynthesis. However, photosynthesis across the basin is threatened by predicted shifts in rainfall patterns. To unpick how changes in rainfall affect photosynthesis, we use a model which combines climate data with our knowledge of photosynthesis and other plant processes. We find that stomatal constraints are less important, and instead shifts in leaf surface area and leaf properties drive changes in photosynthesis with rainfall.
Justine Ngoma, Maarten C. Braakhekke, Bart Kruijt, Eddy Moors, Iwan Supit, James H. Speer, Royd Vinya, and Rik Leemans
Biogeosciences, 16, 3853–3867,Short summary
The Zambezi teak forests are a source of raw material for the timber industry. Through application of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model, we determined the forests' response to climate change at the wetter Kabompo, drier Sesheke, and intermediate Namwala sites in Zambia. While increased CO2 concentration enhances forests' productivity at Kabompo and Namwala, the decreased rainfall will reduce forests' productivity at Sesheke by the year 2099, resulting in reduced raw material for saw millers.
Karel Castro-Morales, Gregor Schürmann, Christoph Köstler, Christian Rödenbeck, Martin Heimann, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 16, 3009–3032,Short summary
To obtain nearly 30 years of global terrestrial carbon fluxes, we simultaneously incorporated in a land surface model three different time periods of two observational data sets: absorbed photosynthetic active radiation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. One decade of data is enough to improve the modeled long-term trends and seasonal amplitudes of the assimilated variables, particularly in boreal regions. This model has the potential to provide short-term predictions of land carbon fluxes.
Wei Zhang, Chunyan Liu, Xunhua Zheng, Kai Wang, Feng Cui, Rui Wang, Siqi Li, Zhisheng Yao, and Jiang Zhu
Biogeosciences, 16, 2905–2922,Short summary
A biogeochemical process model-based approach for screening the best management practices (BMPs) of a three-crop system was proposed. The BMPs are the management alternatives with the lowest negative impact potentials that still satisfy all given constraints. Three BMP alternatives with overlapping uncertainties of simulated NIPs were screened from 6000 scenarios using the modified DNDC95 model, which could sustain crop yields, enlarge SOC stock, mitigate GHG, and reduce other nitrogen losses.
Susan J. Cheng, Peter G. Hess, William R. Wieder, R. Quinn Thomas, Knute J. Nadelhoffer, Julius Vira, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Per Gundersen, Ivan J. Fernandez, Patrick Schleppi, Marie-Cécile Gruselle, Filip Moldan, and Christine L. Goodale
Biogeosciences, 16, 2771–2793,Short summary
Nitrogen deposition and fertilizer can change how much carbon is stored in plants and soils. Understanding how much added nitrogen is recovered in plants or soils is critical to estimating the size of the future land carbon sink. We compared how nitrogen additions are recovered in modeled soil and plant stocks against data from long-term nitrogen addition experiments. We found that the model simulates recovery of added nitrogen into soils through a different process than found in the field.
Philipp Porada, Alexandra Tamm, Jose Raggio, Yafang Cheng, Axel Kleidon, Ulrich Pöschl, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 16, 2003–2031,Short summary
The trace gases NO and HONO are crucial for atmospheric chemistry. It has been suggested that biological soil crusts in drylands contribute substantially to global NO and HONO emissions, based on empirical upscaling of laboratory and field observations. Here we apply an alternative, process-based modeling approach to predict these emissions. We find that biological soil crusts emit globally significant amounts of NO and HONO, which also vary depending on the type of biological soil crust.
Vasileios Myrgiotis, Mathew Williams, Robert M. Rees, and Cairistiona F. E. Topp
Biogeosciences, 16, 1641–1655,Short summary
This study focuses on a northwestern European cropland region and shows that the type of crop growing on a soil has notable effects on the emission of nitrous oxide (N2O – a greenhouse gas) from that soil. It was found that N2O emissions from soils under oilseed cultivation are significantly higher than soils under cereal cultivation. This variation is mostly explained by the fact that oilseeds require more nitrogen (fertiliser) than cereals, especially at early crop growth stages.
Andy D. Robertson, Keith Paustian, Stephen Ogle, Matthew D. Wallenstein, Emanuele Lugato, and M. Francesca Cotrufo
Biogeosciences, 16, 1225–1248,Short summary
Predicting how soils respond to varying environmental conditions or land-use change is essential if we aim to promote sustainable management practices and help mitigate climate change. Here, we present a new ecosystem-scale soil model (MEMS v1) that is built upon recent, novel findings and can be run using very few inputs. The model accurately predicted soil carbon stocks for more than 8000 sites across Europe, ranging from cold, wet forests in sandy soils to hot, dry grasslands in clays.
Jing Wang, Jianyang Xia, Xuhui Zhou, Kun Huang, Jian Zhou, Yuanyuan Huang, Lifen Jiang, Xia Xu, Junyi Liang, Ying-Ping Wang, Xiaoli Cheng, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 16, 917–926,Short summary
Soil is critical in mitigating climate change mainly because soil carbon turns over much slower in soils than vegetation and the atmosphere. However, Earth system models (ESMs) have large uncertainty in simulating carbon dynamics due to their biased estimation of soil carbon transit time (τsoil). Here, the τsoil estimates from 12 ESMs that participated in CMIP5 were evaluated by a database of measured τsoil. We detected a large spatial variation in measured τsoil across the globe.
Jianqiu Zheng, Peter E. Thornton, Scott L. Painter, Baohua Gu, Stan D. Wullschleger, and David E. Graham
Biogeosciences, 16, 663–680,Short summary
Arctic warming exposes soil carbon to increased degradation, increasing CO2 and CH4 emissions. Models underrepresent anaerobic decomposition that predominates wet soils. We simulated microbial growth, pH regulation, and anaerobic carbon decomposition in a new model, parameterized and validated with prior soil incubation data. The model accurately simulated CO2 production and strong influences of water content, pH, methanogen biomass, and competing electron acceptors on CH4 production.
Mingjie Shi, Joshua B. Fisher, Richard P. Phillips, and Edward R. Brzostek
Biogeosciences, 16, 457–465,Short summary
The ability of plants to slow climate change by taking up carbon hinges in part on there being ample soil nitrogen. We used a model that accounts for the carbon cost to plants of supporting nitrogen-acquiring microbes to explore how nitrogen limitation affects climate. Our model predicted that nitrogen limitation will enhance temperature and decrease precipitation; thus, our results suggest that carbon spent to support nitrogen-acquiring microbes is a critical component of the Earth's climate.
Qinchuan Xin, Yongjiu Dai, and Xiaoping Liu
Biogeosciences, 16, 467–484,Short summary
Terrestrial biosphere models that simulate both leaf dynamics and canopy photosynthesis are required to understand vegetation–climate interactions. A time-stepping scheme is proposed to simulate leaf area index, phenology, and gross primary production via climate variables. The method performs well on simulating deciduous broadleaf forests across the eastern United States; it provides a simplified and improved version of the growing production day model for use in land surface modeling.
Tong Yu and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 16, 207–222,
Debsunder Dutta, David S. Schimel, Ying Sun, Christiaan van der Tol, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 16, 77–103,Short summary
Canopy structural and leaf photosynthesis parameterizations are often fixed over time in Earth system models and represent large sources of uncertainty in predictions of carbon and water fluxes. We develop a moving window nonlinear optimal parameter inversion framework using constraining flux and satellite reflectance observations. The results demonstrate the applicability of the approach for error reduction and capturing the seasonal variability of key ecosystem parameters.
Ahti, T., Hämet-Ahti, L., and Jalas, J.: Vegetation zones and their sections in northwestern Europe, Ann. Bot. Fenn., 5, 169–211, 1968.
Alexander, R. and Millington, A. C.: Vegetation mapping: From Patch to Planet, in: Vegetation Mapping, John Wiley and Sons, LTD, Chichester, England, 321–331, 2000.
Assal, T. J., Anderson, P. J., and Sibold, J.: Mapping forest functional type in a forest-shrubland ecotone using SPOT imagery and predictive habitat distribution modelling, Remote Sens. Lett., 6, 755–764, https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704x.2015.1072289, 2015.
Bakkestuen, V., Erikstad, L., and Halvorsen, R.: Step-less models for regional environmental variation in Norway, J. Biogeogr., 35, 1906–1922, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.01941.x, 2008.
Bjordal, J.: Potential Implications of Lichen Cover for the Surface Energy Balance: Implementing Lichen as a new Plant Functional Type in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5), Master Thesis, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, 99 pp., 2018.
Bohn, U., Gollub, G., Hettwer, C., Neuhäuslova, Z., Raus, T., Schlüter, H., and Weber, H.: Map of the Natural Vegetation of Europe, Scale 1 : 2 500 000, Federal Agency for Nature Conservation, Münster, 2000.
Bonan, G. B., Levis, S., Kergoat, L., and Oleson, K. W.: Landscapes as patches of plant functional types: An integrating concept for climate and ecosystem models, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 5-1–5-23, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000gb001360, 2002.
Bonan, G. B., Levis, S., Sitch, S., Vertenstein, M., and Oleson, K. W.: A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 1543–1566, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00681.x, 2003.
Bonan, G. B.: Forests, Climate, and Public Policy: A 500-Year Interdisciplinary Odyssey, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 47, 97–121, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032359, 2016.
Bryn, A., Dramstad, W., Fjellstad, W., and Hofmeister, F.: Rule-based GIS-modelling for management purposes: A case study from the islands of Froan, Sør-Trøndelag, mid-western Norway, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 64, 175–184, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2010.528224, 2010.
Bryn, A., Dourojeanni, P., Hemsing, L. Ø., and O'Donnell, S.: A high-resolution GIS null model of potential forest expansion following land use changes in Norway, Scand. J. Forest Res., 28, 81–98, https://doi.org/10.1080/02827581.2012.689005, 2013.
Bryn, A., Strand, G.-H., Angeloff, M., and Rekdal, Y.: Land cover in Norway based on an area frame survey of vegetation types, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 72, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2018.1468356, 2018.
Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Essery, R. L. H., Boike, J., Langer, M., Heikenfeld, M., Cox, P. M., and Friedlingstein, P.: Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model, The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015.
Coppell, R., Gloor, E., and Holden, J.: A process-based Sphagnum plant-functional-type model for implementation in the TRIFFID Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-51, in review, 2019.
Czekanowski, J.: Zur differentialdiagnose der Neandertalgruppe, Friedr. Vieweg and Sohn, 1909.
Dallmeyer, A., Claussen, M., and Brovkin, V.: Harmonising plant functional type distributions for evaluating Earth system models, Clim. Past, 15, 335–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, 2019.
Davin, E. L. and de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.: Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes, J. Climate, 23, 97–112, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3102.1, 2010.
Dinerstein, E., Olson, D., Joshi, A., Vynne, C., Burgess, N. D., Wikramanayake, E., Hahn, N., Palminteri, S., Hedao, P., Noss, R., Hansen, M., Locke, H., Ellis, E. C., Jones, B., Barber, C. V., Hayes, R., Kormos, C., Martin, V., Crist, E., Sechrest, W., Price, L., Baillie, J. E. M., Weeden, D., Suckling, K., Davis, C., Sizer, N., Moore, R., Thau, D., Birch, T., Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Tyukavina, A., de Souza, N., Pintea, L., Brito, J. C., Llewellyn, O. A., Miller, A. G., Patzelt, A., Ghazanfar, S. A., Timberlake, J., Kloser, H., Shennan-Farpon, Y., Kindt, R., Lilleso, J. B., van Breugel, P., Graudal, L., Voge, M., Al-Shammari, K. F., and Saleem, M.: An Ecoregion-Based Approach to Protecting Half the Terrestrial Realm, Bioscience, 67, 534–545, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix014, 2017.
Druel, A., Peylin, P., Krinner, G., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Peregon, A., Bastrikov, V., Kosykh, N., and Mironycheva-Tokareva, N.: Towards a more detailed representation of high-latitude vegetation in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE (ORC-HL-VEGv1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4693–4722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, 2017.
Druel, A., Ciais, P., Krinner, G., and Peylin, P.: Modeling the Vegetation Dynamics of Northern Shrubs and Mosses in the ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2020–2035, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ms001531, 2019.
Duveiller, G., Hooker, J., and Cescatti, A.: The mark of vegetation change on Earth's surface energy balance, Nat. Commun., 9, 679, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02810-8, 2018.
Dyrrdal, A. V., Stordal, F., and Lussana, C.: Evaluation of summer precipitation from EURO-CORDEX fine-scale RCM simulations over Norway, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1661–1677, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5287, 2018.
Eurostat: The Lucas Survey: European Statisticians Monitor Territory, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, 2003.
Euskirchen, E. S., McGuire, A. D., Chapin III, F. S., Yi, S., and Thompson, C. C.: Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003–2100: implications for climate feedbacks, Ecol. Appl., 19, 1022–1043, https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0806.1, 2009.
Ferrier, S. and Guisan, A.: Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level, J. Appl. Ecol., 43, 393–404, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01149.x, 2006.
Ferrier, S., Watson, G., Pearce, J., and Drielsma, M.: Extended statistical approaches to modelling spatial pattern in biodiversity in northeast New South Wales. I. Species-level modelling, Conserv. Biol., 11, 2275–2307, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1021302930424, 2002.
Fielding, A. H. and Bell, J. F.: A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models, Environ. Conserv., 24, 38–49, 1997.
Fisher, R., McDowell, N., Purves, D., Moorcroft, P., Sitch, S., Cox, P., Huntingford, C., Meir, P., and Ian Woodward, F.: Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations, New Phytol., 187, 666–681, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03340.x, 2010.
Franklin, S. E. and Wulder, M. A.: Remote sensing methods in medium spatial resolution satellite data land cover classification of large areas, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 26, 173–205, https://doi.org/10.1191/0309133302pp332ra, 2002.
Førland, E.: Precipitation and topography, Klima, 79, 23–24, 1979 (in Norwegian with English summary).
Gotangco Castillo, C. K., Levis, S., and Thornton, P.: Evaluation of the New CNDV Option of the Community Land Model: Effects of Dynamic Vegetation and Interactive Nitrogen on CLM4 Means and Variability, J. Climate, 25, 3702–3714, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00372.1, 2012.
Halvorsen, R.: A gradient analytic perspective on distribution modelling, Sommerfeltia, 35, 1–165, https://doi.org/10.2478/v10208-011-0015-3, 2012.
Hanssen-Bauer, I., Førland, E., Haddeland, I., Hisdal, H., Lawrence, D., Mayer, S., Nesje, A., Nilsen, J., Sandven, S., and Sandø, A.: Climate in Norway 2100–A knowledge base for climate adaptation, The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services, Oslo, 2017.
Hartley, A. J., MacBean, N., Georgievski, G., and Bontemps, S.: Uncertainty in plant functional type distributions and its impact on land surface models, Remote Sens. Environ., 203, 71–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.037, 2017.
Hemsing, L. Ø. and Bryn, A.: Three methods for modelling potential natural vegetation (PNV) compared: A methodological case study from south-central Norway, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 66, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2011.644321, 2012.
Henderson, E. B., Ohmann, J. L., Gregory, M. J., Roberts, H. M., and Zald, H.: Species distribution modelling for plant communities: stacked single species or multivariate modelling approaches?, Appl. Veg. Sci., 17, 516–527, https://doi.org/10.1111/avsc.12085, 2014.
Hengl, T., Walsh, M. G., Sanderman, J., Wheeler, I., Harrison, S. P., and Prentice, I. C.: Global mapping of potential natural vegetation: an assessment of machine learning algorithms for estimating land potential, PeerJ, 6, e5457, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.5457, 2018.
Hickler, T., Vohland, K., Feehan, J., Miller, P. A., Smith, B., Costa, L., Giesecke, T., Fronzek, S., Carter, T. R., Cramer, W., Kuhn, I., and Sykes, M. T.: Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species-based dynamic vegetation model, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 21, 50–63, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00613.x, 2012.
Hijmans, R. J.: Geographic Data Analysis and Modeling, retrieved from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=raster, last access: 30 January 2019.
Horvath, P.: geco-nhm/DGVM_RS_DM_Norway: First release, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4399235, 2020.
Horvath, P., Halvorsen, R., Stordal, F., Tallaksen, L. M., Tang, H., and Bryn, A.: Distribution modelling of vegetation types based on area frame survey data, Appl. Veg. Sci., 22, 547–560, https://doi.org/10.1111/avsc.12451, 2019.
Horvath, P., Tang, H., Halvorsen, R., Stordal, F., Merete Tallaksen, L., Berntsen, T. K., and Bryn, A.: High-resolution DM-based and RS-based PFT maps, Dryad, https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.dfn2z34xn, 2020.
Johansen, B. E.: Satellittbasert vegetasjonskartlegging for Norge, Direktoratet for Naturforvaltning, Norsk Romsenter, 2009.
Keith, D. A., Ferrer, J. R., Nicholson, E., Bishop, M. J., Polidoro, B. A., Llodra, E. R., Tozer, M. G., Nel, J. L., Nally, R. M., Gregr, E. J., Watermeyer, K. E., Essl, F., Faber-Langendoen, D., Franklin, J., Lehmann, C. E. R., Etter, A., Roux, D. J., Stark, J. S., Rowland, J. A., Brummitt, N. A., Fernandez-Arcaya, U. C., Suthers, I. M., Wiser, S. K., Donohue, I., Jackson, L. J., Pennington, R. T., Pettorelli, N., Andrade, A., Kontula, T., Lindgaard, A., Tahvanainan, T., Terauds, A., Venter, O., Watson, J. E. M., Chadwick, M. A., Murray, N. J., Moat, J., Pliscoff, P., Zager, I., and Kingsford, R. T.: The IUCN Global Ecosystem Typology v1.01: Descriptive profiles for Biomes and Ecosystem Functional Groups, IUCN, CEM, New York, 172, 2020.
Lantz, T. C., Gergel, S. E., and Kokelj, S. V.: Spatial Heterogeneity in the Shrub Tundra Ecotone in the Mackenzie Delta Region, Northwest Territories: Implications for Arctic Environmental Change, Ecosystems, 13, 194–204, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-009-9310-0, 2010.
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z. L., Levis, S., and Sakaguchi, K.: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the Community Land Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 3, M03001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS00045, 2011.
Lawrence, P. J. and Chase, T. N.: Representing a new MODIS consistent land surface in the Community Land Model (CLM 3.0), J. Geophys. Res., 112, G01023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jg000168, 2007.
Levis, S., Bonan, B., Vertenstein, M., and Oleson, K.: The community land model's dynamic global vegetation model (CLM-DGVM): technical description and user's guide, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 2004.
Li, W., MacBean, N., Ciais, P., Defourny, P., Lamarche, C., Bontemps, S., Houghton, R. A., and Peng, S.: Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992–2015), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 219–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018, 2018.
Lussana, C., Saloranta, T., Skaugen, T., Magnusson, J., Tveito, O. E., and Andersen, J.: seNorge2 daily precipitation, an observational gridded dataset over Norway from 1957 to the present day, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-235-2018, 2018a.
Lussana, C., Tveito, O., and Uboldi, F.: Three-dimensional spatial interpolation of 2 m temperature over Norway, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 344–364, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3208, 2018b.
Majasalmi, T., Eisner, S., Astrup, R., Fridman, J., and Bright, R. M.: An enhanced forest classification scheme for modeling vegetation–climate interactions based on national forest inventory data, Biogeosciences, 15, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-399-2018, 2018.
Miller, P. A. and Smith, B.: Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming, AMBIO, 41, 281–291, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0306-1, 2012.
Moen, A.: Vegetation, Norwegian Mapping Authority, Hønefoss, 200 pp., 1999.
Mücher, C. A., Hennekens, S. M., Bunce, R. G. H., Schaminée, J. H. J., and Schaepman, M. E.: Modelling the spatial distribution of Natura 2000 habitats across Europe, Landscape Urban Plan., 92, 148–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2009.04.003, 2009.
Myers-Smith, I. H., Forbes, B. C., Wilmking, M., Hallinger, M., Lantz, T., Blok, D., Tape, K. D., Macias-Fauria, M., Sass-Klaassen, U., Lévesque, E., Boudreau, S., Ropars, P., Hermanutz, L., Trant, A., Collier, L. S., Weijers, S., Rozema, J., Rayback, S. A., Schmidt, N. M., Schaepman-Strub, G., Wipf, S., Rixen, C., Ménard, C. B., Venn, S., Goetz, S., Andreu-Hayles, L., Elmendorf, S., Ravolainen, V., Welker, J., Grogan, P., Epstein, H. E., and Hik, D. S.: Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 045509, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509, 2011.
Myers-Smith, I. H., Kerby, J. T., Phoenix, G. K., Bjerke, J. W., Epstein, H. E., Assmann, J. J., John, C., Andreu-Hayles, L., Angers-Blondin, S., Beck, P. S. A., Berner, L. T., Bhatt, U. S., Bjorkman, A. D., Blok, D., Bryn, A., Christiansen, C. T., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Cunliffe, A. M., Elmendorf, S. C., Forbes, B. C., Goetz, S. J., Hollister, R. D., de Jong, R., Loranty, M. M., Macias-Fauria, M., Maseyk, K., Normand, S., Olofsson, J., Parker, T. C., Parmentier, F.-J. W., Post, E., Schaepman-Strub, G., Stordal, F., Sullivan, P. F., Thomas, H. J. D., Tømmervik, H., Treharne, R., Tweedie, C. E., Walker, D. A., Wilmking, M., and Wipf, S.: Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 106–117, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0688-1, 2020.
O’Donnell, M. S. and Ignizio, D. A.: Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States, US Geological Survey, Virginia, 2012.
Oksanen, L.: Isolated occurrences of spruce, Picea abies, in northernmost Fennoscandia in relation to the enigma of continental mountain birch forests, Acta Bot. Fenn., 153, 81–92, 1995.
Oksanen, J., Blanchet, F. G., Friendly, M., Kindt, R., Legendre, P., McGlinn, D., Minchin, P. R., O'Hara, R. B., Simpson, G. L., Solymos, P., Stevens, M. H. H., Szoecs, E., and Wagner, H.: Community Ecology Package, Retrieved from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=vegan, last access: 3 April 2019.
Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Bonan, G. B., Drewniak, B., Huang, M., Koven, C. D., Levis, S., Li, F., Riley, W. J., Subin, Z. M., Swenson, S. C., and Thornton, P. E.: Technical Description of version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM), NCAR Earth System Laboratory Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2013.
Pebesma, E. J. and Bivand, R. S.: Classes and methods for spatial data in R, retrieved from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/doc/Rnews/ (last access: 4 March 2019), 2005.
Porada, P., Ekici, A., and Beer, C.: Effects of bryophyte and lichen cover on permafrost soil temperature at large scale, The Cryosphere, 10, 2291–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016, 2016.
Poulter, B., Ciais, P., Hodson, E., Lischke, H., Maignan, F., Plummer, S., and Zimmermann, N. E.: Plant functional type mapping for earth system models, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 993–1010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-993-2011, 2011.
Poulter, B., MacBean, N., Hartley, A., Khlystova, I., Arino, O., Betts, R., Bontemps, S., Boettcher, M., Brockmann, C., Defourny, P., Hagemann, S., Herold, M., Kirches, G., Lamarche, C., Lederer, D., OttlÉ, C., Peters, M., and Peylin, P.: Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015.
QGIS Development Team: QGIS geographic information system: Open Source Geospatial Foundation Project, retrieved from: http://qgis.osgeo.org, last access: 1 March 2019.
R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, retrieved from: https://www.R-project.org/, last access: 1 April 2019.
Rowlingson, B., Bivand, R., and Keitt, T.: Bindings for the “Geospatial” Data Abstraction Library, retrieved from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rgdal, last access: 1 March 2019.
Scheiter, S., Langan, L., and Higgins, S. I.: Next-generation dynamic global vegetation models: learning from community ecology, New Phytol., 198, 957–969, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12210, 2013.
Seo, H. and Kim, Y.: Interactive impacts of fire and vegetation dynamics on global carbon and water budget using Community Land Model version 4.5, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 457–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-457-2019, 2019.
Sevanto, S., Suni, T., Pumpanen, J., Grönholm, T., Kolari, P., Nikinmaa, E., Hari, P., and Vesala, T.: Wintertime photosynthesis and water uptake in a boreal forest, Tree Physiol., 26, 749–757, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/26.6.749, 2006.
Shi, Y., Yu, M., Erfanian, A., and Wang, G.: Modeling the Dynamic Vegetation–Climate System over China Using a Coupled Regional Model, J. Climate, 31, 6027–6049, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0191.1, 2018.
Simensen, T., Horvath, P., Erikstad, L., Bryn, A., Vollering, J., and Halvorsen, R.: Composite landscape predictors improve distribution models of ecosystem types, Divers. Distrib., 26, 928–943, https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13060, 2020.
Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Gedney, N., Levy, P. E., Lomas, M., Piao, S. L., Betts, R., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C. D., Prentice, I. C., and Woodward, F. I.: Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), Glob. Change Biol., 14, 2015–2039, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x, 2008.
Snell, R. S., Huth, A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Bocedi, G., Travis, J. M. J., Gravel, D., Bugmann, H., Gutiérrez, A. G., Hickler, T., Higgins, S. I., Reineking, B., Scherstjanoi, M., Zurbriggen, N., and Lischke, H.: Using dynamic vegetation models to simulate plant range shifts, Ecography, 37, 1184–1197, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00580, 2014.
Song, X., Zeng, X., and Zhu, J.: Evaluating the tree population density and its impacts in CLM-DGVM, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30, 116–124, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-1271-0, 2013.
Strand, G.-H.: The Norwegian area frame survey of land cover and outfield land resources, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 67, 24–35, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2012.760001, 2013.
Tang, H.: Modification and scripts for running CLM4.5BGCDV and sensitivity experiments, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4415469, 2021.
Ullerud, H. A., Bryn, A., and Klanderud, K.: Distribution modelling of vegetation types in the boreal–alpine ecotone, Appl. Veg. Sci., 19, 528–540, https://doi.org/10.1111/avsc.12236, 2016.
Ullerud, H. A., Bryn, A., and Skånes, H.: Bridging theory and implementation – Testing an abstract classification system for practical mapping by field survey and 3D aerial photographic interpretation, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 73, 301–317, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2020.1717595, 2020.
Vowles, T., Gunnarsson, B., Molau, U., Hickler, T., Klemedtsson, L., and Björk, R. G.: Expansion of deciduous tall shrubs but not evergreen dwarf shrubs inhibited by reindeer in Scandes mountain range, J. Ecol., 105, 1547–1561, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12753, 2017.
Wickham, H.: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis, Springer-Verlag New York, retrieved from: https://ggplot2.tidyverse.org (last access: 5 April 2019), 2016.
Wullschleger, S. D., Epstein, H. E., Box, E. O., Euskirchen, E. S., Goswami, S., Iversen, C. M., Kattge, J., Norby, R. J., van Bodegom, P. M., and Xu, X.: Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems, Ann. Bot.-London, 114, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcu077, 2014.
Xie, Y., Sha, Z., and Yu, M.: Remote sensing imagery in vegetation mapping: a review, J. Plant Ecol., 1, 9–23, https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtm005, 2008.
Zeng, X., Zeng, X., and Barlage, M.: Growing temperate shrubs over arid and semiarid regions in the Community Land Model–Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gb003014, 2008.
Zhang, W., Brandt, M., Tong, X., Tian, Q., and Fensholt, R.: Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel, Biogeosciences, 15, 319–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-319-2018, 2018.
Zhu, J., Zeng, X., Zhang, M., Dai, Y., Ji, D., Li, F., Zhang, Q., Zhang, H., and Song, X.: Evaluation of the New Dynamic Global Vegetation Model in CAS-ESM, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35, 659–670, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7154-7, 2018.
Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., and Smith, G. M.: Measures of association, in: Analysing ecological data, Statistics for Biology and Health, Springer, New York, 163–187, 2007.
We evaluated the performance of three methods for representing vegetation cover. Remote sensing provided the best match to a reference dataset, closely followed by distribution modelling (DM), whereas the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) in CLM4.5BGCDV deviated strongly from the reference. Sensitivity tests show that use of threshold values for predictors identified by DM may improve DGVM performance. The results highlight the potential of using DM in the development of DGVMs.
We evaluated the performance of three methods for representing vegetation cover. Remote sensing...