Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 14 Jun 2023
| 14 Jun 2023
Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
David M. Medvigy
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
Benjamin Smith
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University,
Lund, Sweden
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney
University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
Jeffrey S. Dukes
Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA
Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for
Science, Stanford, California, USA
Claus Beier
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management,
University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
Mikhail Mishurov
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University,
Lund, Sweden
Xiangtao Xu
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University,
Ithaca, New York, USA
Jeremy W. Lichstein
Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida,
USA
Craig D. Allen
Geography and Environmental Studies, University of New Mexico,
Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
Klaus S. Larsen
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management,
University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Department of Biological
Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
Cari Ficken
Department of Biology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario,
Canada
William T. Pockman
Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New
Mexico, USA
William R. L. Anderegg
School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City,
Utah, USA
Anja Rammig
TUM School of Life Sciences
Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
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Shuyue Li, Bonnie Waring, Jennifer Powers, and David Medvigy
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Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
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Kevin R. Wilcox, Scott L. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, William Pockman, Zheng Shi, Melinda D. Smith, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 20, 2707–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, 2023
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German Vargas Gutiérrez, Daniel Pérez-Aviles, Nanette Raczka, Damaris Pereira-Arias, Julián Tijerín-Triviño, L. David Pereira-Arias, David Medvigy, Bonnie G. Waring, Ember Morrisey, Edward Brzostek, and Jennifer S. Powers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2143–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2143-2023, 2023
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Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, 2023
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H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
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David Martín Belda, Peter Anthoni, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6709–6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, 2022
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We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow us to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modelled vegetation processes. The modelled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 21 sites from the FLUXNET network.
Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6495–6519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, 2022
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Phillip Papastefanou, Christian S. Zang, Zlatan Angelov, Aline Anderson de Castro, Juan Carlos Jimenez, Luiz Felipe Campos De Rezende, Romina C. Ruscica, Boris Sakschewski, Anna A. Sörensson, Kirsten Thonicke, Carolina Vera, Nicolas Viovy, Celso Von Randow, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 19, 3843–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, 2022
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The Amazon rainforest has been hit by multiple severe drought events. In this study, we assess the severity and spatial extent of the extreme drought years 2005, 2010 and 2015/16 in the Amazon. Using nine different precipitation datasets and three drought indicators we find large differences in drought stress across the Amazon region. We conclude that future studies should use multiple rainfall datasets and drought indicators when estimating the impact of drought stress in the Amazon region.
Shuang Ma, Lifen Jiang, Rachel M. Wilson, Jeff P. Chanton, Scott Bridgham, Shuli Niu, Colleen M. Iversen, Avni Malhotra, Jiang Jiang, Xingjie Lu, Yuanyuan Huang, Jason Keller, Xiaofeng Xu, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul J. Hanson, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 19, 2245–2262, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022, 2022
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The relative ratio of wetland methane (CH4) emission pathways determines how much CH4 is oxidized before leaving the soil. We found an ebullition modeling approach that has a better performance in deep layer pore water CH4 concentration. We suggest using this approach in land surface models to accurately represent CH4 emission dynamics and response to climate change. Our results also highlight that both CH4 flux and belowground concentration data are important to constrain model parameters.
Adrian Gustafson, Paul A. Miller, Robert G. Björk, Stefan Olin, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 6329–6347, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, 2021
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We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021
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Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and for carbon storage. In Europe, forests are intensively managed. To understand how management influences carbon storage in European forests, we implement detailed forest management into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We test the model by comparing model output to typical forestry measures, such as growing stock and harvest data, for different countries in Europe.
Xin Huang, Dan Lu, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul J. Hanson, Andrew D. Richardson, Xuehe Lu, Ensheng Weng, Sheng Nie, Lifen Jiang, Enqing Hou, Igor F. Steinmacher, and Yiqi Luo
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5217–5238, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5217-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5217-2021, 2021
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In the data-rich era, data assimilation is widely used to integrate abundant observations into models to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasting. However, applications of data assimilation are restricted by highly technical requirements. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module which is friendly to ecologists with limited programming skills. MIDA also supports a flexible switch of different models or observations in DA analysis.
Rafael Poyatos, Víctor Granda, Víctor Flo, Mark A. Adams, Balázs Adorján, David Aguadé, Marcos P. M. Aidar, Scott Allen, M. Susana Alvarado-Barrientos, Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Luiza Maria Aparecido, M. Altaf Arain, Ismael Aranda, Heidi Asbjornsen, Robert Baxter, Eric Beamesderfer, Z. Carter Berry, Daniel Berveiller, Bethany Blakely, Johnny Boggs, Gil Bohrer, Paul V. Bolstad, Damien Bonal, Rosvel Bracho, Patricia Brito, Jason Brodeur, Fernando Casanoves, Jérôme Chave, Hui Chen, Cesar Cisneros, Kenneth Clark, Edoardo Cremonese, Hongzhong Dang, Jorge S. David, Teresa S. David, Nicolas Delpierre, Ankur R. Desai, Frederic C. Do, Michal Dohnal, Jean-Christophe Domec, Sebinasi Dzikiti, Colin Edgar, Rebekka Eichstaedt, Tarek S. El-Madany, Jan Elbers, Cleiton B. Eller, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Brent Ewers, Patrick Fonti, Alicia Forner, David I. Forrester, Helber C. Freitas, Marta Galvagno, Omar Garcia-Tejera, Chandra Prasad Ghimire, Teresa E. Gimeno, John Grace, André Granier, Anne Griebel, Yan Guangyu, Mark B. Gush, Paul J. Hanson, Niles J. Hasselquist, Ingo Heinrich, Virginia Hernandez-Santana, Valentine Herrmann, Teemu Hölttä, Friso Holwerda, James Irvine, Supat Isarangkool Na Ayutthaya, Paul G. Jarvis, Hubert Jochheim, Carlos A. Joly, Julia Kaplick, Hyun Seok Kim, Leif Klemedtsson, Heather Kropp, Fredrik Lagergren, Patrick Lane, Petra Lang, Andrei Lapenas, Víctor Lechuga, Minsu Lee, Christoph Leuschner, Jean-Marc Limousin, Juan Carlos Linares, Maj-Lena Linderson, Anders Lindroth, Pilar Llorens, Álvaro López-Bernal, Michael M. Loranty, Dietmar Lüttschwager, Cate Macinnis-Ng, Isabelle Maréchaux, Timothy A. Martin, Ashley Matheny, Nate McDowell, Sean McMahon, Patrick Meir, Ilona Mészáros, Mirco Migliavacca, Patrick Mitchell, Meelis Mölder, Leonardo Montagnani, Georgianne W. Moore, Ryogo Nakada, Furong Niu, Rachael H. Nolan, Richard Norby, Kimberly Novick, Walter Oberhuber, Nikolaus Obojes, A. Christopher Oishi, Rafael S. Oliveira, Ram Oren, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Teemu Paljakka, Oscar Perez-Priego, Pablo L. Peri, Richard L. Peters, Sebastian Pfautsch, William T. Pockman, Yakir Preisler, Katherine Rascher, George Robinson, Humberto Rocha, Alain Rocheteau, Alexander Röll, Bruno H. P. Rosado, Lucy Rowland, Alexey V. Rubtsov, Santiago Sabaté, Yann Salmon, Roberto L. Salomón, Elisenda Sánchez-Costa, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Bernhard Schuldt, Alexandr Shashkin, Clément Stahl, Marko Stojanović, Juan Carlos Suárez, Ge Sun, Justyna Szatniewska, Fyodor Tatarinov, Miroslav Tesař, Frank M. Thomas, Pantana Tor-ngern, Josef Urban, Fernando Valladares, Christiaan van der Tol, Ilja van Meerveld, Andrej Varlagin, Holm Voigt, Jeffrey Warren, Christiane Werner, Willy Werner, Gerhard Wieser, Lisa Wingate, Stan Wullschleger, Koong Yi, Roman Zweifel, Kathy Steppe, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2607–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, 2021
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Transpiration is a key component of global water balance, but it is poorly constrained from available observations. We present SAPFLUXNET, the first global database of tree-level transpiration from sap flow measurements, containing 202 datasets and covering a wide range of ecological conditions. SAPFLUXNET and its accompanying R software package
sapfluxnetrwill facilitate new data syntheses on the ecological factors driving water use and drought responses of trees and forests.
Gilvan Sampaio, Marília H. Shimizu, Carlos A. Guimarães-Júnior, Felipe Alexandre, Marcelo Guatura, Manoel Cardoso, Tomas F. Domingues, Anja Rammig, Celso von Randow, Luiz F. C. Rezende, and David M. Lapola
Biogeosciences, 18, 2511–2525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, 2021
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The impact of large-scale deforestation and the physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on Amazon rainfall are systematically compared in this study. Our results are remarkable in showing that the two disturbances cause equivalent rainfall decrease, though through different causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of not only curbing regional deforestation but also reducing global CO2 emissions to avoid climatic changes in the Amazon.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 2181–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, 2021
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes changes in the sea surface temperature patterns of the Pacific Ocean. This influences the global weather, impacting vegetation on land. There are two types of El Niño: central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP). In this study, we explored the long-term impacts on the carbon balance on land linked to the two El Niño types. Using a dynamic vegetation model, we simulated what would happen if only either CP or EP El Niño events had occurred.
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez, Jennifer A. Holm, Boris Faybishenko, Daniel Magnabosco-Marra, Rosie A. Fisher, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Alessandro C. de Araujo, William J. Riley, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Biogeosciences, 17, 6185–6205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, 2020
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The temporal variability in the Landsat satellite near-infrared (NIR) band captured the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances in Central Amazon. This variability was represented by the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances were properly represented by the ELM-FATES model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM)).
Erqian Cui, Chenyu Bian, Yiqi Luo, Shuli Niu, Yingping Wang, and Jianyang Xia
Biogeosciences, 17, 6237–6246, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6237-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6237-2020, 2020
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Mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is related to the magnitude of the carbon sink of a specific ecosystem, while its inter-annual variation (IAVNEP) characterizes the stability of such a carbon sink. Thus, a better understanding of the co-varying NEP and IAVNEP is critical for locating the major and stable carbon sinks on land. Based on daily NEP observations from eddy-covariance sites, we found local indicators for the spatially varying NEP and IAVNEP, respectively.
Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Marko Scholze, Matthew Lang, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Naomi E. Smith, Rona L. Thompson, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Emily White, Antoon Meesters, Philippe Ciais, Anita L. Ganesan, Alistair Manning, Michael Mischurow, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Jerôme Tarniewicz, Matt Rigby, Christian Rödenbeck, Alex Vermeulen, and Evie M. Walton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12063–12091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, 2020
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The paper presents the first results from the EUROCOM project, a regional atmospheric inversion intercomparison exercise involving six European research groups. It aims to produce an estimate of the net carbon flux between the European terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere for the period 2006–2015, based on constraints provided by observed CO2 concentrations and using inverse modelling techniques. The use of six different models enables us to investigate the robustness of the results.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Akane O. Abbasi, Alejandro Salazar, Youmi Oh, Sabine Reinsch, Maria del Rosario Uribe, Jianghanyang Li, Irfan Rashid, and Jeffrey S. Dukes
Biogeosciences, 17, 3859–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3859-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3859-2020, 2020
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In this study, we provide a holistic view of soil responses to precipitation changes. A total of 16 meta-analyses focusing on the effects of precipitation changes on 42 soil response variables were compared. A strong agreement was found that the belowground carbon and nitrogen cycling accelerate under increased precipitation and slow under decreased precipitation, while bacterial and fungal communities are relatively resistant to decreased precipitation. Knowledge gaps were also identified.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
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Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Jian Zhou, Jianyang Xia, Ning Wei, Yufu Liu, Chenyu Bian, Yuqi Bai, and Yiqi Luo
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-76, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The increase of model complexity and data volume challenges the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs), which mainly stems from the untraceable, unautomatic, and high computational costs. Here, we built up an online Traceability analysis system for Model Evaluation (TraceME), which is traceable, automatic and shareable. The TraceME (v1.0) can trace the structural uncertainty of simulated carbon (C) storage in ESMs and provide some new implications for the next generation of model evaluation.
Allan Buras, Anja Rammig, and Christian S. Zang
Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020
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This study compares the climatic conditions and ecosystem response of the extreme European drought of 2018 with the previous extreme drought of 2003. Using gridded climate data and satellite-based remote sensing information, our analyses qualify 2018 as the new European record drought with wide-ranging negative impacts on European ecosystems. Given the observation of forest-legacy effects in 2019 we call for Europe-wide forest monitoring to assess forest vulnerability to climate change.
Nora Linscheid, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Alexander Brenning, Nuno Carvalhais, Felix Cremer, Fabian Gans, Anja Rammig, Markus Reichstein, Carlos A. Sierra, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 945–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, 2020
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Vegetation typically responds to variation in temperature and rainfall within days. Yet seasonal changes in meteorological conditions, as well as decadal climate variability, additionally shape the state of ecosystems. It remains unclear how vegetation responds to climate variability on these different timescales. We find that the vegetation response to climate variability depends on the timescale considered. This scale dependency should be considered for modeling land–atmosphere interactions.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, David M. Medvigy, Naomi M. Levine, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Abigail L. S. Swann, Ke Zhang, Christine R. Rollinson, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4309–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, 2019
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Our paper describes the Ecosystem Demography model. This computer program calculates how plants and ground exchange heat, water, and carbon with the air, and how plants grow, reproduce and die in different climates. Most models simplify forests to an average big tree. We consider that tall, deep-rooted trees get more light and water than small plants, and that some plants can with shade and drought. This diversity helps us to better explain how plants live and interact with the atmosphere.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, Naomi M. Levine, Abigail L. S. Swann, David M. Medvigy, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Ke Zhang, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Plínio B. Camargo, Matthew N. Hayek, Scott R. Saleska, Rodrigo da Silva, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4347–4374, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, 2019
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The Ecosystem Demography model calculates the fluxes of heat, water, and carbon between plants and ground and the air, and the life cycle of plants in different climates. To test if our calculations were reasonable, we compared our results with field and satellite measurements. Our model predicts well the extent of the Amazon forest, how much light forests absorb, and how much water forests release to the air. However, it must improve the tree growth rates and how fast dead plants decompose.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
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We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
Yuanyuan Huang, Mark Stacy, Jiang Jiang, Nilutpal Sundi, Shuang Ma, Volodymyr Saruta, Chang Gyo Jung, Zheng Shi, Jianyang Xia, Paul J. Hanson, Daniel Ricciuto, and Yiqi Luo
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1119–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1119-2019, 2019
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Predicting future changes in ecosystem services is not only highly desirable but is also becoming feasible as several forces are converging to transform ecological research into quantitative forecasting. To realize ecological forecasting, we have developed an Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD) into models. EcoPAD also has the potential to become an interactive tool for resource management, stimulate citizen science in ecology, and transform environmental education.
Veiko Lehsten, Michael Mischurow, Erik Lindström, Dörte Lehsten, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 893–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-893-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-893-2019, 2019
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To assess the effect of climate on vegetation, dynamic vegetation models simulate their response e.g. to climate change. Most currently used dynamic vegetation models ignore the fact that for colonization of a new area not only do the climatic conditions have to be suitable, but seeds also need to arrive at the site to allow the species to migrate there. In this paper we are developing a novel method which allows us to simulate migration within dynamic vegetation models even at large scale.
Jing Wang, Jianyang Xia, Xuhui Zhou, Kun Huang, Jian Zhou, Yuanyuan Huang, Lifen Jiang, Xia Xu, Junyi Liang, Ying-Ping Wang, Xiaoli Cheng, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 16, 917–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-917-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-917-2019, 2019
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Soil is critical in mitigating climate change mainly because soil carbon turns over much slower in soils than vegetation and the atmosphere. However, Earth system models (ESMs) have large uncertainty in simulating carbon dynamics due to their biased estimation of soil carbon transit time (τsoil). Here, the τsoil estimates from 12 ESMs that participated in CMIP5 were evaluated by a database of measured τsoil. We detected a large spatial variation in measured τsoil across the globe.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
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We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Qianyu Li, Xingjie Lu, Yingping Wang, Xin Huang, Peter M. Cox, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 15, 6909–6925, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, 2018
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Land-surface models have been widely used to predict the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of model mechanisms that govern terrestrial ecosystem responses to rising atmosphere [CO2] is needed. Our study for the first time shows that the expansion of leaf area under rising [CO2] is the most important response for the stimulation of land carbon accumulation by a land-surface model: CABLE. Processes related to leaf area should be better calibrated.
Xingjie Lu, Ying-Ping Wang, Yiqi Luo, and Lifen Jiang
Biogeosciences, 15, 6559–6572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6559-2018, 2018
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How long does C cycle through terrestrial ecosystems is a critical question for understanding land C sequestration capacity under future rising atmosphere [CO2] and climate warming. Under climate change, previous conventional concepts with a steady-state assumption will no longer be suitable for a non-steady state. Our results using the new concept, C transit time, suggest more significant responses in terrestrial C cycle under rising [CO2] and climate warming.
Zhenggang Du, Ensheng Weng, Lifen Jiang, Yiqi Luo, Jianyang Xia, and Xuhui Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4399–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4399-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4399-2018, 2018
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In this study, based on a traceability analysis technique, we evaluated alternative representations of C–N interactions and their impacts on the C cycle using the TECO model framework. Our results showed that different representations of C–N coupling processes lead to divergent effects on plant production, C residence time, and thus the ecosystem C storage capacity. Identifying those effects can help us to improve the N limitation assumptions employed in terrestrial ecosystem models.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Yuanyuan Huang, Yiqi Luo, Ying-Ping Wang, A. Anthony Bloom, Grégoire Broquet, Jens Hartmann, Shushi Peng, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Jordi Sardans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rong Wang, Sönke Zaehle, and Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3903–3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, 2018
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We present a new modeling framework called Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines a data-constrained C-cycle analysis with data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. GOLUM-CNP provides a traceable tool, where a consistency between different datasets of global C, N, and P cycles has been achieved.
Vanessa Haverd, Benjamin Smith, Lars Nieradzik, Peter R. Briggs, William Woodgate, Cathy M. Trudinger, Josep G. Canadell, and Matthias Cuntz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, 2018
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CABLE is a terrestrial biosphere model that can be applied stand-alone and provides for land surface–atmosphere exchange within a climate model. We extend CABLE for regional and global carbon–climate simulations, accounting for land use and land cover change mediated by tree demography. A novel algorithm to simulate the coordination of rate-limiting photosynthetic processes is also implemented. Simulations satisfy multiple observational constraints on the global land carbon cycle.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, Hester Biemans, Matthias Forkel, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jürgen Knauer, Fanny Langerwisch, Wolfgang Lucht, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive model description of a global terrestrial biosphere model, named LPJmL4, incorporating the carbon and water cycle and the quantification of agricultural production. The model allows for the consistent and joint quantification of climate and land use change impacts on the biosphere. The model represents the key ecosystem functions, but also the influence of humans on the biosphere. It comes with an evaluation paper to demonstrate the credibility of LPJmL4.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Christoph Müller, Jürgen Knauer, Werner von Bloh, Dieter Gerten, Jonas Jägermeyr, Wolfgang Lucht, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1377–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the now launched version 4.0 of the LPJmL biosphere, water, and agricultural model. The article is the second part to a comprehensive description of the LPJmL4 model. We have evaluated the model against various datasets of satellite observations, agricultural statistics, and in situ measurements by applying a range of metrics. We are able to show that the LPJmL4 model simulates many parameters and relations reasonably.
Jannis von Buttlar, Jakob Zscheischler, Anja Rammig, Sebastian Sippel, Markus Reichstein, Alexander Knohl, Martin Jung, Olaf Menzer, M. Altaf Arain, Nina Buchmann, Alessandro Cescatti, Damiano Gianelle, Gerard Kiely, Beverly E. Law, Vincenzo Magliulo, Hank Margolis, Harry McCaughey, Lutz Merbold, Mirco Migliavacca, Leonardo Montagnani, Walter Oechel, Marian Pavelka, Matthias Peichl, Serge Rambal, Antonio Raschi, Russell L. Scott, Francesco P. Vaccari, Eva van Gorsel, Andrej Varlagin, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, 2018
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Our work systematically quantifies extreme heat and drought event impacts on gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration globally across a wide range of ecosystems. We show that heat extremes typically increased mainly respiration whereas drought decreased both fluxes. Combined heat and drought extremes had opposing effects offsetting each other for respiration, but there were also strong reductions in GPP and hence the strongest reductions in the ecosystems carbon sink capacity.
Anna T. Trugman, David Medvigy, William A. Hoffmann, and Adam F. A. Pellegrini
Biogeosciences, 15, 233–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-233-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-233-2018, 2018
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Tree fire tolerance strategies may significantly impact woody carbon stability and the existence of tropical savannas under global climate change. We used a numerical ecosystem model to test the impacts of fire survival strategy under differing fire and rainfall regimes. We found that the high survival rate of large fire-tolerant trees reduced carbon losses with increasing fire frequency, and reduced the range of conditions leading to either complete tree loss or complete grass loss.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Karin T. Rebel, Stefan C. Dekker, Benjamin Smith, Arthur H. W. Beusen, and Martin J. Wassen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1121–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, 2017
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Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO2 concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gabriel Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Caitlin Moore, Youngryel Ryu, Simon Scheiter, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 14, 4711–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, 2017
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This paper attempts to review some of the current challenges faced by the modelling community in simulating the behaviour of savanna ecosystems. We provide a particular focus on three dynamic processes (phenology, root-water access, and fire) that are characteristic of savannas, which we believe are not adequately represented in current-generation terrestrial biosphere models. We highlight reasons for these misrepresentations, possible solutions and a future direction for research in this area.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
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We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
Kerstin Engström, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, John Hassler, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 773–799, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, 2017
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Applying a global carbon tax on fossil was shown to lead to increased bioenergy production in four out of five scenarios. Increased bioenergy production led to global cropland changes that were up to 50 % larger by 2100 compared to the reference case (without global carbon tax). For scenarios with strong cropland expansion due to high population growth coupled with low technological change or bioenergy production, the biosphere was simulated to switch from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Andreas Brændholt, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, Andreas Ibrom, and Kim Pilegaard
Biogeosciences, 14, 1603–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1603-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1603-2017, 2017
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In this study we found that CO2 fluxes from soil measured by the closed-chamber technique were overestimated during low atmospheric turbulence. This resulted in biased courses of CO2 fluxes during a day. We removed CO2 fluxes measured at low turbulence, which gave better flux estimates. We furthermore tested a novel technique that provided good measurement during low turbulence, thereby giving better estimates of CO2 emissions from soils, which is a crucial part of the global carbon cycle.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Fanny Langerwisch, Ariane Walz, Anja Rammig, Britta Tietjen, Kirsten Thonicke, and Wolfgang Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 953–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, 2016
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Amazonia is heavily impacted by climate change and deforestation. During annual flooding terrigenous material is imported to the river, converted and finally exported to the ocean or the atmosphere. Changes in the vegetation alter therefore riverine carbon dynamics. Our results show that due to deforestation organic carbon amount will strongly decrease both in the river and exported to the ocean, while inorganic carbon amounts will increase, in the river as well as exported to the atmosphere.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Minchao Wu, Guy Schurgers, Markku Rummukainen, Benjamin Smith, Patrick Samuelsson, Christer Jansson, Joe Siltberg, and Wilhelm May
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 627–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, 2016
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On Earth, vegetation does not merely adapt to climate but also imposes significant influences on climate with both local and remote effects. In this study we evaluated the role of vegetation in African climate with a regional Earth system model. By the comparison between the experiments with and without dynamic vegetation changes, we found that vegetation can influence climate remotely, resulting in modulating rainfall patterns over Africa.
F. Langerwisch, A. Walz, A. Rammig, B. Tietjen, K. Thonicke, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 559–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, 2016
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In Amazonia, carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding. We applied the newly developed model RivCM to several climate change scenarios to estimate potential changes in riverine carbon. We find that climate change causes substantial changes in riverine organic and inorganic carbon, as well as changes in carbon exported to the atmosphere and ocean. Such changes could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gab Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko Duursma, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Youngryel Ryu, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 13, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, 2016
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In this study we assess how well terrestrial biosphere models perform at predicting water and carbon cycling for savanna ecosystems. We apply our models to five savanna sites in Northern Australia and highlight key causes for model failure. Our assessment of model performance uses a novel benchmarking system that scores a model’s predictive ability based on how well it is utilizing its driving information. On average, we found the models as a group display only moderate levels of performance.
V. Haverd, B. Smith, M. Raupach, P. Briggs, L. Nieradzik, J. Beringer, L. Hutley, C. M. Trudinger, and J. Cleverly
Biogeosciences, 13, 761–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, 2016
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We present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation in savannas, and test it using data from the OzFlux network. Model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant physiology and vegetation dynamics, in response to resource availability, and not from imposed hypotheses about the controls on tree-grass co-existence. Results indicate that resource limitation is a stronger determinant of tree cover than disturbance in Australian savannas.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
S. Olin, M. Lindeskog, T. A. M. Pugh, G. Schurgers, D. Wårlind, M. Mishurov, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, B. Smith, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015
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Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being. Properly managed they can supply food, store carbon and even sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Conversely, if poorly managed, croplands can be a source of nitrogen to inland and coastal waters, causing algal blooms, and a source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, accentuating climate change. Here we studied cropland management types for their potential to store carbon and minimize nitrogen losses while maintaining crop yields.
R. A. Fisher, S. Muszala, M. Verteinstein, P. Lawrence, C. Xu, N. G. McDowell, R. G. Knox, C. Koven, J. Holm, B. M. Rogers, A. Spessa, D. Lawrence, and G. Bonan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015
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Predicting the distribution of vegetation under novel climates is important, both to understand how climate change will impact ecosystem services, but also to understand how vegetation changes might affect the carbon, energy and water cycles. Historically, predictions have been heavily dependent upon observations of existing vegetation boundaries. In this paper, we attempt to predict ecosystem boundaries from the ``bottom up'', and illustrate the complexities and promise of this approach.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
J. Tang, P. A. Miller, A. Persson, D. Olefeldt, P. Pilesjö, M. Heliasz, M. Jackowicz-Korczynski, Z. Yang, B. Smith, T. V. Callaghan, and T. R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 12, 2791–2808, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2791-2015, 2015
S. Olin, G. Schurgers, M. Lindeskog, D. Wårlind, B. Smith, P. Bodin, J. Holmér, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015
S. Rolinski, A. Rammig, A. Walz, W. von Bloh, M. van Oijen, and K. Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 12, 1813–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, 2015
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Extreme weather events can but do not have to cause extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions.
We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment and apply it to terrestrial ecosystems, defining a hazard as negative net biome productivity. In Europe, ecosystems are vulnerable to drought in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas vulnerability in Scandinavia is not caused by water shortages.
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
B. Bond-Lamberty, J. P. Fisk, J. A. Holm, V. Bailey, G. Bohrer, and C. M. Gough
Biogeosciences, 12, 513–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-513-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-513-2015, 2015
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How will aging forests behave as they undergo ecological transitions? Can our models, which support scientific, policy, and management analyses, accurately simulate these transitions? We tested whether three forest ecosystem models could reproduce dynamics observed in an experimentally manipulated forest in northern Michigan, USA. None of the models fully captured the post-disturbance C fluxes observed, raising doubts about their ability to simulate tree death after moderate disturbances.
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, 2014
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We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
J. A. Holm, J. Q. Chambers, W. D. Collins, and N. Higuchi
Biogeosciences, 11, 5773–5794, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5773-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5773-2014, 2014
W. Zhang, C. Jansson, P. A. Miller, B. Smith, and P. Samuelsson
Biogeosciences, 11, 5503–5519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, 2014
J. A. Holm, K. Jardine, A. B. Guenther, J. Q. Chambers, and E. Tribuzy
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23995-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23995-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
V. Haverd, B. Smith, L. P. Nieradzik, and P. R. Briggs
Biogeosciences, 11, 4039–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, 2014
S. Vicca, M. Bahn, M. Estiarte, E. E. van Loon, R. Vargas, G. Alberti, P. Ambus, M. A. Arain, C. Beier, L. P. Bentley, W. Borken, N. Buchmann, S. L. Collins, G. de Dato, J. S. Dukes, C. Escolar, P. Fay, G. Guidolotti, P. J. Hanson, A. Kahmen, G. Kröel-Dulay, T. Ladreiter-Knauss, K. S. Larsen, E. Lellei-Kovacs, E. Lebrija-Trejos, F. T. Maestre, S. Marhan, M. Marshall, P. Meir, Y. Miao, J. Muhr, P. A. Niklaus, R. Ogaya, J. Peñuelas, C. Poll, L. E. Rustad, K. Savage, A. Schindlbacher, I. K. Schmidt, A. R. Smith, E. D. Sotta, V. Suseela, A. Tietema, N. van Gestel, O. van Straaten, S. Wan, U. Weber, and I. A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 11, 2991–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2991-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2991-2014, 2014
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
Z. Shi, M. L. Thomey, W. Mowll, M. Litvak, N. A. Brunsell, S. L. Collins, W. T. Pockman, M. D. Smith, A. K. Knapp, and Y. Luo
Biogeosciences, 11, 621–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-621-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-621-2014, 2014
M. Lindeskog, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, K. Waha, J. Seaquist, S. Olin, and B. Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013
J. H. Shim, H. H. Powers, C. W. Meyer, A. Knohl, T. E. Dawson, W. J. Riley, W. T. Pockman, and N. McDowell
Biogeosciences, 10, 4937–4956, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4937-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Terrestrial
Future methane fluxes of peatlands are controlled by management practices and fluctuations in hydrological conditions due to climatic variability
Understanding and simulating cropland and non-cropland burning in Europe using the BASE (Burnt Area Simulator for Europe) model
Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6
Does dynamically modeled leaf area improve predictions of land surface water and carbon fluxes? Insights into dynamic vegetation modules
Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models
X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X
A 2001–2022 global gross primary productivity dataset using an ensemble model based on the random forest method
Future projections of Siberian wildfire and aerosol emissions
Mechanisms of soil organic carbon and nitrogen stabilization in mineral-associated organic matter – insights from modeling in phase space
Optimizing the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity using carbonyl sulfide (COS) within a two-leaf modeling framework
Modeling integrated soil fertility management for maize production in Kenya using a Bayesian calibration of the DayCent model
Estimates of critical loads and exceedances of acidity and nutrient nitrogen for mineral soils in Canada for 2014–2016 average annual sulphur and nitrogen atmospheric deposition
When and why microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models can be unstable
The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback
Climate-based prediction of carbon fluxes from deadwood in Australia
Integration of tree hydraulic processes and functional impairment to capture the drought resilience of a semiarid pine forest
The effect of temperature on photosystem II efficiency across plant functional types and climate
Modeling microbial carbon fluxes and stocks in global soils from 1901 to 2016
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and vegetation structural changes contributed to gross primary productivity increase more than climate and forest cover changes in subtropical forests of China
Developing the DO3SE-crop model for Xiaoji, China
Non-steady-state stomatal conductance modeling and its implications: from leaf to ecosystem
Modelled forest ecosystem carbon–nitrogen dynamics with integrated mycorrhizal processes under elevated CO2
A chemical kinetics theory for interpreting the non-monotonic temperature dependence of enzymatic reactions
Using Free Air CO2 Enrichment data to constrain land surface model projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle
Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance
Simulating net ecosystem exchange under seasonal snow cover at an Arctic tundra site
Spatial biases reduce the ability of Earth system models to simulate soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes
Tropical dry forest response to nutrient fertilization: a model validation and sensitivity analysis
Connecting competitor, stress-tolerator and ruderal (CSR) theory and Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land 5 (LPJmL 5) to assess the role of environmental conditions, management and functional diversity for grassland ecosystem functions
A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction
Can models adequately reflect how long-term nitrogen enrichment alters the forest soil carbon cycle?
Temporal variability of observed and simulated gross primary productivity, modulated by vegetation state and hydrometeorological drivers
Empirical upscaling of OzFlux eddy covariance for high-resolution monitoring of terrestrial carbon uptake in Australia
A modeling approach to investigate drivers, variability and uncertainties in O2 fluxes and O2 : CO2 exchange ratios in a temperate forest
Modeling coupled nitrification–denitrification in soil with an organic hotspot
A new method for estimating carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forest soils for the greenhouse gas inventory of Finland
Enabling a process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model to simulate soil erosion and nutrient losses
Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 1: A mechanistic model simulating the effects of potassium availability on canopy carbon and water fluxes in tropical eucalypt stands
Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 2: CASTANEA-MAESPA-K shows a reduction in photosynthesis rather than a stoichiometric limitation of tissue formation
Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance
Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration
Optimizing the carbonic anhydrase temperature response and stomatal conductance of carbonyl sulfide leaf uptake in the Simple Biosphere model (SiB4)
Exploring environmental and physiological drivers of the annual carbon budget of biocrusts from various climatic zones with a mechanistic data-driven model
Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance
Mapping of ESA's Climate Change Initiative land cover data to plant functional types for use in the CLASSIC land model
Effect of droughts and climate change on future soil weathering rates in Sweden
Information content in time series of litter decomposition studies and the transit time of litter in arid lands
Long-term changes of nitrogen leaching and the contributions of terrestrial nutrient sources to lake eutrophication dynamics on the Yangtze Plain of China
Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations
Effect of land-use legacy on the future carbon sink for the conterminous US
Vilna Tyystjärvi, Tiina Markkanen, Leif Backman, Maarit Raivonen, Antti Leppänen, Xuefei Li, Paavo Ojanen, Kari Minkkinen, Roosa Hautala, Mikko Peltoniemi, Jani Anttila, Raija Laiho, Annalea Lohila, Raisa Mäkipää, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences, 21, 5745–5771, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5745-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5745-2024, 2024
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Drainage of boreal peatlands strongly influences soil methane fluxes, with important implications for climatic impacts. Here we simulate methane fluxes in forestry-drained and restored peatlands during the 21st century. We found that restoration turned peatlands into a source of methane, but the magnitude varied regionally. In forests, changes in the water table level influenced methane fluxes, and in general, the sink was weaker under rotational forestry compared to continuous cover forestry.
Matthew Forrest, Jessica Hetzer, Maik Billing, Simon P. K. Bowring, Eric Kosczor, Luke Oberhagemann, Oliver Perkins, Dan Warren, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Kirsten Thonicke, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 21, 5539–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5539-2024, 2024
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Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe, but drivers of fire are not well understood, especially across different land cover types. We used statistical models with satellite data, climate data, and socioeconomic data to determine what affects burning in cropland and non-cropland areas of Europe. We found different drivers of burning in cropland burning vs. non-cropland to the point that some variables, e.g. population density, had the complete opposite effects.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024
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This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.
Sven Armin Westermann, Anke Hildebrandt, Souhail Bousetta, and Stephan Thober
Biogeosciences, 21, 5277–5303, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5277-2024, 2024
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Plants at the land surface mediate between soil and the atmosphere regarding water and carbon transport. Since plant growth is a dynamic process, models need to consider these dynamics. Two models that predict water and carbon fluxes by considering plant temporal evolution were tested against observational data. Currently, dynamizing plants in these models did not enhance their representativeness, which is caused by a mismatch between implemented physical relations and observable connections.
Kamal Nyaupane, Umakant Mishra, Feng Tao, Kyongmin Yeo, William J. Riley, Forrest M. Hoffman, and Sagar Gautam
Biogeosciences, 21, 5173–5183, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, 2024
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Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Using machine learning, we develop and compare predictive relationships in observations (Obs) and ESMs. We find different relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks in Obs and ESMs. SOC prediction in ESMs may be improved by representing the functional relationships of environmental controllers in a way consistent with observations.
Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Ulrich Weber, Kimberly Novick, Nina Buchmann, Mirco Migliavacca, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ladislav Šigut, Andreas Ibrom, Dario Papale, Mathias Göckede, Gregory Duveiller, Alexander Knohl, Lukas Hörtnagl, Russell L. Scott, Weijie Zhang, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, Markus Reichstein, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Jonas Ardö, Maarten Op de Beeck, Dave Billesbach, David Bowling, Rosvel Bracho, Christian Brümmer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Shiping Chen, Jamie Rose Cleverly, Ankur Desai, Gang Dong, Tarek S. El-Madany, Eugenie Susanne Euskirchen, Iris Feigenwinter, Marta Galvagno, Giacomo A. Gerosa, Bert Gielen, Ignacio Goded, Sarah Goslee, Christopher Michael Gough, Bernard Heinesch, Kazuhito Ichii, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Anne Klosterhalfen, Sara Knox, Hideki Kobayashi, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Mika Korkiakoski, Ivan Mammarella, Mana Gharun, Riccardo Marzuoli, Roser Matamala, Stefan Metzger, Leonardo Montagnani, Giacomo Nicolini, Thomas O'Halloran, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Borja Ruiz Reverter, Marilyn Roland, Simone Sabbatini, Torsten Sachs, Marius Schmidt, Christopher R. Schwalm, Ankit Shekhar, Richard Silberstein, Maria Lucia Silveira, Donatella Spano, Torbern Tagesson, Gianluca Tramontana, Carlo Trotta, Fabio Turco, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Domenico Vitale, Enrique R. Vivoni, Yi Wang, William Woodgate, Enrico A. Yepez, Junhui Zhang, Donatella Zona, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 21, 5079–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, 2024
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The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand because it impacts our lives. Here, we outline a method called FLUXCOM-X to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from sites around the world. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.
Xin Chen, Tiexi Chen, Xiaodong Li, Yuanfang Chai, Shengjie Zhou, Renjie Guo, and Jie Dai
Biogeosciences, 21, 4285–4300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4285-2024, 2024
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We provide an ensemble-model-based GPP dataset (ERF_GPP) that explains 85.1 % of the monthly variation in GPP across 170 sites, which is higher than other GPP estimate models. In addition, ERF_GPP improves the phenomenon of “high-value underestimation and low-value overestimation” in GPP estimation to some extent. Overall, ERF_GPP provides a more reliable estimate of global GPP and will facilitate further development of carbon cycle research.
Reza Kusuma Nurrohman, Tomomichi Kato, Hideki Ninomiya, Lea Végh, Nicolas Delbart, Tatsuya Miyauchi, Hisashi Sato, Tomohiro Shiraishi, and Ryuichi Hirata
Biogeosciences, 21, 4195–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024, 2024
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SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) was integrated into a spatially explicit individual-based dynamic global vegetation model to improve the accuracy of depicting Siberian forest fire frequency, intensity, and extent. Fires showed increased greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions in 2006–2100 for Representative Concentration Pathways. This study contributes to understanding fire dynamics, land ecosystem–climate interactions, and global material cycles under the threat of escalating fires.
Stefano Manzoni and M. Francesca Cotrufo
Biogeosciences, 21, 4077–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4077-2024, 2024
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Organic carbon and nitrogen are stabilized in soils via microbial assimilation and stabilization of necromass (in vivo pathway) or via adsorption of the products of extracellular decomposition (ex vivo pathway). Here we use a diagnostic model to quantify which stabilization pathway is prevalent using data on residue-derived carbon and nitrogen incorporation in mineral-associated organic matter. We find that the in vivo pathway is dominant in fine-textured soils with low organic matter content.
Huajie Zhu, Xiuli Xing, Mousong Wu, Weimin Ju, and Fei Jiang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3735–3760, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3735-2024, 2024
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Ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes were employed to optimize GPP estimation across ecosystems with the Biosphere-atmosphere Exchange Process Simulator (BEPS), which was developed for simulating the canopy COS uptake under its state-of-the-art two-leaf modeling framework. Our results showcased the efficacy of COS in improving model prediction and reducing prediction uncertainty of GPP and enhanced insights into the sensitivity, identifiability, and interactions of parameters related to COS.
Moritz Laub, Magdalena Necpalova, Marijn Van de Broek, Marc Corbeels, Samuel Mathu Ndungu, Monicah Wanjiku Mucheru-Muna, Daniel Mugendi, Rebecca Yegon, Wycliffe Waswa, Bernard Vanlauwe, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 21, 3691–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, 2024
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We used the DayCent model to assess the potential impact of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) on maize production, soil fertility, and greenhouse gas emission in Kenya. After adjustments, DayCent represented measured mean yields and soil carbon stock changes well and N2O emissions acceptably. Our results showed that soil fertility losses could be reduced but not completely eliminated with ISFM and that, while N2O emissions increased with ISFM, emissions per kilogram yield decreased.
Hazel Cathcart, Julian Aherne, Michael D. Moran, Verica Savic-Jovcic, Paul A. Makar, and Amanda Cole
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2371, 2024
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Deposition from sulfur and nitrogen pollution can harm ecosystems, and recovery from this type of pollution can take decades or longer. To identify risk to Canadian soils, we created maps showing sensitivity to sulfur and nitrogen pollution. Results show that some ecosystems are at risk from acid and nutrient nitrogen deposition; 10 % of protected areas are receiving acid deposition beyond their damage threshold and 70 % may be receiving nitrogen deposition that could cause biodiversity loss.
Erik Schwarz, Samia Ghersheen, Salim Belyazid, and Stefano Manzoni
Biogeosciences, 21, 3441–3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024, 2024
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The occurrence of unstable equilibrium points (EPs) could impede the applicability of microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models. For archetypal model versions we identify when instability can occur and describe mathematical conditions to avoid such unstable EPs. We discuss implications for further model development, highlighting the important role of considering basic ecological principles to ensure biologically meaningful models.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, and Libo Wang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3339–3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, 2024
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Terrestrial biosphere models can either prescribe the geographical distribution of biomes or simulate them dynamically, capturing climate-change-driven biome shifts. We isolate and examine the differences between these different land cover implementations. We find that the simulated terrestrial carbon sink at the end of the 21st century is twice as large in simulations with dynamic land cover than in simulations with prescribed land cover due to important range shifts in the Arctic and Amazon.
Elizabeth S. Duan, Luciana Chavez Rodriguez, Nicole Hemming-Schroeder, Baptiste Wijas, Habacuc Flores-Moreno, Alexander W. Cheesman, Lucas A. Cernusak, Michael J. Liddell, Paul Eggleton, Amy E. Zanne, and Steven D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 21, 3321–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024, 2024
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Understanding the link between climate and carbon fluxes is crucial for predicting how climate change will impact carbon sinks. We estimated carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from deadwood in tropical Australia using wood moisture content and temperature. Our model predicted that the majority of deadwood carbon is released as CO2, except when termite activity is detected. Future models should also incorporate wood traits, like species and chemical composition, to better predict fluxes.
Daniel Nadal-Sala, Rüdiger Grote, David Kraus, Uri Hochberg, Tamir Klein, Yael Wagner, Fedor Tatarinov, Dan Yakir, and Nadine K. Ruehr
Biogeosciences, 21, 2973–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2973-2024, 2024
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A hydraulic model approach is presented that can be added to any physiologically based ecosystem model. Simulated plant water potential triggers stomatal closure, photosynthesis decline, root–soil resistance increases, and sapwood and foliage senescence. The model has been evaluated at an extremely dry site stocked with Aleppo pine and was able to represent gas exchange, soil water content, and plant water potential. The model also responded realistically regarding leaf senescence.
Patrick Neri, Lianhong Gu, and Yang Song
Biogeosciences, 21, 2731–2758, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2731-2024, 2024
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A first-of-its-kind global-scale model of temperature resilience and tolerance of photosystem II maximum quantum yield informs how plants maintain their efficiency of converting light energy to chemical energy for photosynthesis under temperature changes. Our finding explores this variation across plant functional types and habitat climatology, highlighting diverse temperature response strategies and a method to improve global-scale photosynthesis modeling under climate change.
Liyuan He, Jorge L. Mazza Rodrigues, Melanie A. Mayes, Chun-Ta Lai, David A. Lipson, and Xiaofeng Xu
Biogeosciences, 21, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2313-2024, 2024
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Soil microbes are the driving engine for biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients. This study applies a microbial-explicit model to quantify bacteria and fungal biomass carbon in soils from 1901 to 2016. Results showed substantial increases in bacterial and fungal biomass carbon over the past century, jointly influenced by vegetation growth and soil temperature and moisture. This pioneering century-long estimation offers crucial insights into soil microbial roles in global carbon cycling.
Tao Chen, Félicien Meunier, Marc Peaucelle, Guoping Tang, Ye Yuan, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 21, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, 2024
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Chinese subtropical forest ecosystems are an extremely important component of global forest ecosystems and hence crucial for the global carbon cycle and regional climate change. However, there is still great uncertainty in the relationship between subtropical forest carbon sequestration and its drivers. We provide first quantitative estimates of the individual and interactive effects of different drivers on the gross primary productivity changes of various subtropical forest types in China.
Pritha Pande, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Jo Cook, Zhaozhong Feng, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-694, 2024
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The DO3SE-crop model extends the DO3SE to simulate ozone's impact on crops with modules for ozone uptake, damage, and crop growth from JULES-Crop. It's versatile, suits China's varied agriculture, and improves yield predictions under ozone stress. It is essential for policy, water management, and climate response, it integrates into Earth System Models for a comprehensive understanding of agriculture's interaction with global systems.
Ke Liu, Yujie Wang, Troy S. Magney, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 21, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1501-2024, 2024
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Stomata are pores on leaves that regulate gas exchange between plants and the atmosphere. Existing land models unrealistically assume stomata can jump between steady states when the environment changes. We implemented dynamic modeling to predict gradual stomatal responses at different scales. Results suggested that considering this effect on plant behavior patterns in diurnal cycles was important. Our framework also simplified simulations and can contribute to further efficiency improvements.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
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Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 21, 1061–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, 2024
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A chemical kinetics theory is proposed to explain the non-monotonic relationship between temperature and biochemical rates. It incorporates the observed thermally reversible enzyme denaturation that is ensured by the ceaseless thermal motion of molecules and ions in an enzyme solution and three well-established theories: (1) law of mass action, (2) diffusion-limited chemical reaction theory, and (3) transition state theory.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
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Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Kelsey T. Foster, Wu Sun, Yoichi P. Shiga, Jiafu Mao, and Anna M. Michalak
Biogeosciences, 21, 869–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-869-2024, 2024
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Assessing agreement between bottom-up and top-down methods across spatial scales can provide insights into the relationship between ensemble spread (difference across models) and model accuracy (difference between model estimates and reality). We find that ensemble spread is unlikely to be a good indicator of actual uncertainty in the North American carbon balance. However, models that are consistent with atmospheric constraints show stronger agreement between top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
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We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
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Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Shuyue Li, Bonnie Waring, Jennifer Powers, and David Medvigy
Biogeosciences, 21, 455–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, 2024
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We used an ecosystem model to simulate primary production of a tropical forest subjected to 3 years of nutrient fertilization. Simulations parameterized such that relative allocation to fine roots increased with increasing soil phosphorus had leaf, wood, and fine root production consistent with observations. However, these simulations seemed to over-allocate to fine roots on multidecadal timescales, affecting aboveground biomass. Additional observations across timescales would benefit models.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Joe R. McNorton and Francesca Di Giuseppe
Biogeosciences, 21, 279–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024, 2024
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Wildfires have wide-ranging consequences for local communities, air quality and ecosystems. Vegetation amount and moisture state are key components to forecast wildfires. We developed a combined model and satellite framework to characterise vegetation, including the type of fuel, whether it is alive or dead, and its moisture content. The daily data is at high resolution globally (~9 km). Our characteristics correlate with active fire data and can inform fire danger and spread modelling efforts.
Brooke A. Eastman, William R. Wieder, Melannie D. Hartman, Edward R. Brzostek, and William T. Peterjohn
Biogeosciences, 21, 201–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-201-2024, 2024
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We compared soil model performance to data from a long-term nitrogen addition experiment in a forested ecosystem. We found that in order for soil carbon models to accurately predict future forest carbon sequestration, two key processes must respond dynamically to nitrogen availability: (1) plant allocation of carbon to wood versus roots and (2) rates of soil organic matter decomposition. Long-term experiments can help improve our predictions of the land carbon sink and its climate impact.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
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The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Chad A. Burton, Luigi J. Renzullo, Sami W. Rifai, and Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4109–4134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, 2023
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Australia's land-based ecosystems play a critical role in controlling the variability in the global land carbon sink. However, uncertainties in the methods used for quantifying carbon fluxes limit our understanding. We develop high-resolution estimates of Australia's land carbon fluxes using machine learning methods and find that Australia is, on average, a stronger carbon sink than previously thought and that the seasonal dynamics of the fluxes differ from those described by other methods.
Yuan Yan, Anne Klosterhalfen, Fernando Moyano, Matthias Cuntz, Andrew C. Manning, and Alexander Knohl
Biogeosciences, 20, 4087–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, 2023
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A better understanding of O2 fluxes, their exchange ratios with CO2 and their interrelations with environmental conditions would provide further insights into biogeochemical ecosystem processes. We, therefore, used the multilayer canopy model CANVEG to simulate and analyze the flux exchange for our forest study site for 2012–2016. Based on these simulations, we further successfully tested the application of various micrometeorological methods and the prospects of real O2 flux measurements.
Jie Zhang, Elisabeth Larsen Kolstad, Wenxin Zhang, Iris Vogeler, and Søren O. Petersen
Biogeosciences, 20, 3895–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3895-2023, 2023
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Manure application to agricultural land often results in large and variable N2O emissions. We propose a model with a parsimonious structure to investigate N transformations around such N2O hotspots. The model allows for new detailed insights into the interactions between transport and microbial activities regarding N2O emissions in heterogeneous soil environments. It highlights the importance of solute diffusion to N2O emissions from such hotspots which are often ignored by process-based models.
Jukka Alm, Antti Wall, Jukka-Pekka Myllykangas, Paavo Ojanen, Juha Heikkinen, Helena M. Henttonen, Raija Laiho, Kari Minkkinen, Tarja Tuomainen, and Juha Mikola
Biogeosciences, 20, 3827–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023, 2023
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In Finland peatlands cover one-third of land area. For half of those, with 4.3 Mha being drained for forestry, Finland reports sinks and sources of greenhouse gases in forest lands on organic soils following its UNFCCC commitment. We describe a new method for compiling soil CO2 balance that follows changes in tree volume, tree harvests and temperature. An increasing trend of emissions from 1.4 to 7.9 Mt CO2 was calculated for drained peatland forest soils in Finland for 1990–2021.
Siqi Li, Bo Zhu, Xunhua Zheng, Pengcheng Hu, Shenghui Han, Jihui Fan, Tao Wang, Rui Wang, Kai Wang, Zhisheng Yao, Chunyan Liu, Wei Zhang, and Yong Li
Biogeosciences, 20, 3555–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3555-2023, 2023
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Physical soil erosion and particulate carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus loss modules were incorporated into the process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model CNMM-DNDC to realize the accurate simulation of water-induced erosion and subsequent particulate nutrient losses at high spatiotemporal resolution.
Ivan Cornut, Nicolas Delpierre, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, Otavio Campoe, Jose Luiz Stape, Vitoria Fernanda Santos, and Guerric le Maire
Biogeosciences, 20, 3093–3117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, 2023
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Potassium is an essential element for living organisms. Trees are dependent upon this element for certain functions that allow them to build their trunks using carbon dioxide. Using data from experiments in eucalypt plantations in Brazil and a simplified computer model of the plantations, we were able to investigate the effect that a lack of potassium can have on the production of wood. Understanding nutrient cycles is useful to understand the response of forests to environmental change.
Ivan Cornut, Guerric le Maire, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, and Nicolas Delpierre
Biogeosciences, 20, 3119–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, 2023
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After simulating the effects of low levels of potassium on the canopy of trees and the uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by leaves in Part 1, here we tried to simulate the way the trees use the carbon they have acquired and the interaction with the potassium cycle in the tree. We show that the effect of low potassium on the efficiency of the trees in acquiring carbon is enough to explain why they produce less wood when they are in soils with low levels of potassium.
Xiaojuan Yang, Peter Thornton, Daniel Ricciuto, Yilong Wang, and Forrest Hoffman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2813–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, 2023
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We evaluated the performance of a land surface model (ELMv1-CNP) that includes both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) limitation on carbon cycle processes. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. We show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation. Our study suggests that introduction of P limitation in land surface models is likely to have substantial consequences for projections of future carbon uptake.
Kevin R. Wilcox, Scott L. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, William Pockman, Zheng Shi, Melinda D. Smith, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 20, 2707–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, 2023
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The capacity for carbon storage (C capacity) is an attribute that determines how ecosystems store carbon in the future. Here, we employ novel data–model integration techniques to identify the carbon capacity of six grassland sites spanning the US Great Plains. Hot and dry sites had low C capacity due to less plant growth and high turnover of soil C, so they may be a C source in the future. Alternately, cooler and wetter ecosystems had high C capacity, so these systems may be a future C sink.
Ara Cho, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Richard Wehr, and Maarten C. Krol
Biogeosciences, 20, 2573–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2573-2023, 2023
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Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is a useful constraint for estimating photosynthesis. To simulate COS leaf flux better in the SiB4 model, we propose a novel temperature function for enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity and optimize conductances using observations. The optimal activity of CA occurs below 40 °C, and Ball–Woodrow–Berry parameters are slightly changed. These reduce/increase uptakes in the tropics/higher latitudes and contribute to resolving discrepancies in the COS global budget.
Yunyao Ma, Bettina Weber, Alexandra Kratz, José Raggio, Claudia Colesie, Maik Veste, Maaike Y. Bader, and Philipp Porada
Biogeosciences, 20, 2553–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, 2023
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We found that the modelled annual carbon balance of biocrusts is strongly affected by both the environment (mostly air temperature and CO2 concentration) and physiology, such as temperature response of respiration. However, the relative impacts of these drivers vary across regions with different climates. Uncertainty in driving factors may lead to unrealistic carbon balance estimates, particularly in temperate climates, and may be explained by seasonal variation of physiology due to acclimation.
Alexander J. Norton, A. Anthony Bloom, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Paul A. Levine, Shuang Ma, Renato K. Braghiere, and T. Luke Smallman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2455–2484, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, 2023
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This study explores how the representation of leaf phenology affects our ability to predict changes to the carbon balance of land ecosystems. We calibrate a new leaf phenology model against a diverse range of observations at six forest sites, showing that it improves the predictive capability of the processes underlying the ecosystem carbon balance. We then show how changes in temperature and rainfall affect the ecosystem carbon balance with this new model.
Libo Wang, Vivek K. Arora, Paul Bartlett, Ed Chan, and Salvatore R. Curasi
Biogeosciences, 20, 2265–2282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, 2023
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Plant functional types (PFTs) are groups of plant species used to represent vegetation distribution in land surface models. There are large uncertainties associated with existing methods for mapping land cover datasets to PFTs. This study demonstrates how fine-resolution tree cover fraction and land cover datasets can be used to inform the PFT mapping process and reduce the uncertainties. The proposed largely objective method makes it easier to implement new land cover products in models.
Veronika Kronnäs, Klas Lucander, Giuliana Zanchi, Nadja Stadlinger, Salim Belyazid, and Cecilia Akselsson
Biogeosciences, 20, 1879–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1879-2023, 2023
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In a future climate, extreme droughts might become more common. Climate change and droughts can have negative effects on soil weathering and plant health.
In this study, climate change effects on weathering were studied on sites in Sweden using the model ForSAFE, a climate change scenario and an extreme drought scenario. The modelling shows that weathering is higher during summer and increases with global warming but that weathering during drought summers can become as low as winter weathering.
Agustín Sarquis and Carlos A. Sierra
Biogeosciences, 20, 1759–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, 2023
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Although plant litter is chemically and physically heterogenous and undergoes multiple transformations, models that represent litter dynamics often ignore this complexity. We used a multi-model inference framework to include information content in litter decomposition datasets and studied the time it takes for litter to decompose as measured by the transit time. In arid lands, the median transit time of litter is about 3 years and has a negative correlation with mean annual temperature.
Qi Guan, Jing Tang, Lian Feng, Stefan Olin, and Guy Schurgers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, 2023
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Understanding terrestrial sources of nitrogen is vital to examine lake eutrophication changes. Combining process-based ecosystem modeling and satellite observations, we found that land-leached nitrogen in the Yangtze Plain significantly increased from 1979 to 2018, and terrestrial nutrient sources were positively correlated with eutrophication trends observed in most lakes, demonstrating the necessity of sustainable nitrogen management to control eutrophication.
Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023
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The behaviour of natural systems is now very often represented through mathematical models. These models represent our understanding of how nature works. Of course, nature does not care about our understanding. Since our understanding is not perfect, evaluating models is challenging, and there are uncertainties. This paper illustrates this uncertainty for land models and argues that evaluating models in light of the uncertainty in various components provides useful information.
Benjamin S. Felzer
Biogeosciences, 20, 573–587, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-573-2023, 2023
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The future of the terrestrial carbon sink depends upon the legacy of past land use, which determines the stand age of the forest and nutrient levels in the soil, both of which affect vegetation growth. This study uses a modeling approach to determine the effects of land-use legacy in the conterminous US from 1750 to 2099. Not accounting for land legacy results in a low carbon sink and high biomass, while water variables are not as highly affected.
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Short summary
Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We...
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