Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Research article
14 Jun 2023
Research article |  | 14 Jun 2023

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Jennifer A. Holm, David M. Medvigy, Benjamin Smith, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Claus Beier, Mikhail Mishurov, Xiangtao Xu, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Craig D. Allen, Klaus S. Larsen, Yiqi Luo, Cari Ficken, William T. Pockman, William R. L. Anderegg, and Anja Rammig

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Cited articles

Adams, H. D., Guardiola-Claramonte, M., Barron-Gafford, G. A., Villegas, J. C., Breshears, D. D., Zou, C. B., Troch, P. A., and Huxman, T. E.: Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 7063–7066, 2009. 
Adams, H. D., Barron-Gafford, G. A., Minor, R. L., Gardea, A. A., Bentley, L. P., Law, D. J., Breshears, D. D., McDowell, N. G., and Huxman, T. E.: Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 115014,, 2017a. 
Adams, H. D., Zeppel, M. J. B., Anderegg, W. R. L., et al.: A multi-species synthesis of physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree mortality, Nature Ecol. & Evol., 1, 1285–1291, 2017b. 
Aguirre, B. A., Hsieh, B., Watson, S. J., and Wright, A. J.: The experimental manipulation of atmospheric drought: Teasing out the role of microclimate in biodiversity experiments, J. Ecol., 109, 1986–1999,, 2021. 
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008,, 2012. 
Short summary
Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Final-revised paper