Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
David M. Medvigy
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
Benjamin Smith
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University,
Lund, Sweden
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney
University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
Jeffrey S. Dukes
Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA
Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for
Science, Stanford, California, USA
Claus Beier
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management,
University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
Mikhail Mishurov
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University,
Lund, Sweden
Xiangtao Xu
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University,
Ithaca, New York, USA
Jeremy W. Lichstein
Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida,
USA
Craig D. Allen
Geography and Environmental Studies, University of New Mexico,
Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
Klaus S. Larsen
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management,
University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Department of Biological
Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
Cari Ficken
Department of Biology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario,
Canada
William T. Pockman
Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New
Mexico, USA
William R. L. Anderegg
School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City,
Utah, USA
Anja Rammig
TUM School of Life Sciences
Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
Related authors
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez, Jennifer A. Holm, Boris Faybishenko, Daniel Magnabosco-Marra, Rosie A. Fisher, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Alessandro C. de Araujo, William J. Riley, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Biogeosciences, 17, 6185–6205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The temporal variability in the Landsat satellite near-infrared (NIR) band captured the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances in Central Amazon. This variability was represented by the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances were properly represented by the ELM-FATES model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM)).
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
R. A. Fisher, S. Muszala, M. Verteinstein, P. Lawrence, C. Xu, N. G. McDowell, R. G. Knox, C. Koven, J. Holm, B. M. Rogers, A. Spessa, D. Lawrence, and G. Bonan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting the distribution of vegetation under novel climates is important, both to understand how climate change will impact ecosystem services, but also to understand how vegetation changes might affect the carbon, energy and water cycles. Historically, predictions have been heavily dependent upon observations of existing vegetation boundaries. In this paper, we attempt to predict ecosystem boundaries from the ``bottom up'', and illustrate the complexities and promise of this approach.
B. Bond-Lamberty, J. P. Fisk, J. A. Holm, V. Bailey, G. Bohrer, and C. M. Gough
Biogeosciences, 12, 513–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-513-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-513-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
How will aging forests behave as they undergo ecological transitions? Can our models, which support scientific, policy, and management analyses, accurately simulate these transitions? We tested whether three forest ecosystem models could reproduce dynamics observed in an experimentally manipulated forest in northern Michigan, USA. None of the models fully captured the post-disturbance C fluxes observed, raising doubts about their ability to simulate tree death after moderate disturbances.
J. A. Holm, J. Q. Chambers, W. D. Collins, and N. Higuchi
Biogeosciences, 11, 5773–5794, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5773-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5773-2014, 2014
J. A. Holm, K. Jardine, A. B. Guenther, J. Q. Chambers, and E. Tribuzy
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23995-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23995-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Olivier Bouriaud, Ernst-Detlef Schulze, Konstantin Gregor, Issam Bourkhris, Peter Högberg, Roland Irslinger, Phillip Papastefanou, Julia Pongratz, Anja Rammig, Riccardo Valentini, and Christian Körner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of harvesting on forests' carbon sink capacities is debated. One view is that their sink strength is resilient to harvesting, the other that it disrupts these capacities. Our work shows that leaf area index (LAI) has been overlooked in this discussion. We found that temperate forests' carbon uptake is largely insensitive to variations in LAI beyond about 4 m² m-², but that forests operate at higher levels.
Andres F. Rodriguez, Johannes W. M. Pullens, Jesper R. Christiansen, Klaus S. Larsen, and Poul E. Lærke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3030, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates if more detailed water depth and water chemistry data can improve greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimations from rewetted peatlands under paludiculture. Results showed that in enriched nutrient areas, greenhouse gas emissions can potentially be reduced by paludiculture, depending on the end use of the harvested biomass, additionally, more data on water depth and water chemistry can improve GHG emission estimations, which is especially relevant in rewetted peatlands.
Sylvain Schmitt, Fabian Fischer, James Ball, Nicolas Barbier, Marion Boisseaux, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Xiuzhi Chen, Géraldine Derroire, Jeremy Lichstein, Daniela Nemetschek, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Scott Saleska, Giacomo Sellan, Philippe Verley, Grégoire Vincent, Camille Ziegler, Jérôme Chave, and Isabelle Maréchaux
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3106, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the capability of TROLL 4.0, a simulator of forest dynamics, to represent tropical forest structure, diversity and functioning in two Amazonian forests. Evaluation data include forest inventories, carbon and water fluxes between the forest and the atmosphere, and leaf area and canopy height from remote-sensing products. The model realistically predicts the structure and composition, and the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes at both sites.
Mateus Dantas de Paula, Matthew Forrest, David Warlind, João Paulo Darela Filho, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, and Thomas Hickler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2592, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study maps global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability and how they’ve changed from 1901 to 2018. We found that tropical regions are mostly P-limited, while temperate and boreal areas face N limitations. Over time, P limitation has increased, especially in the tropics, while N limitation has decreased. These shifts are key to understanding global plant growth and carbon storage, highlighting the importance of including P dynamics in ecosystem models.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An interdisciplinary collaboration of 35 international researchers from 34 institutions highlighting nine recent findings in biosphere research. Within these themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. They discuss recent findings in the context of global trade and international policy frameworks, and highlight lessons for local implementation of nature-based solutions.
Lucia S. Layritz, Konstantin Gregor, Andreas Krause, Stefan Kruse, Ben F. Meyer, Tom A. M. Pugh, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbances (e.g. fire) can change which species grow in a forest, affecting water, carbon, energy flows, and the climate. They are expected to increase with climate change, but it is uncertain by how much. We studied how future climate and disturbances might impact vegetation with a simulation model. Our findings highlight the importance of considering both factors, with future disturbance patterns posing significant uncertainty. More research is needed to understand their future development.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Benjamin F. Meyer, Allan Buras, Konstantin Gregor, Lucia S. Layritz, Adriana Principe, Jürgen Kreyling, Anja Rammig, and Christian S. Zang
Biogeosciences, 21, 1355–1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Late-spring frost (LSF), critically low temperatures when trees have already flushed their leaves, results in freezing damage leaving trees with reduced ability to perform photosynthesis. Forests with a high proportion of susceptible species like European beech are particularly vulnerable. However, this process is rarely included in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). We show that the effect on simulated productivity and biomass is substantial, warranting more widespread inclusion of LSF in DVMs.
João Paulo Darela-Filho, Anja Rammig, Katrin Fleischer, Tatiana Reichert, Laynara Figueiredo Lugli, Carlos Alberto Quesada, Luis Carlos Colocho Hurtarte, Mateus Dantas de Paula, and David M. Lapola
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 715–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-715-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-715-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phosphorus (P) is crucial for plant growth, and scientists have created models to study how it interacts with carbon cycle in ecosystems. To apply these models, it is important to know the distribution of phosphorus in soil. In this study we estimated the distribution of phosphorus in the Amazon region. The results showed a clear gradient of soil development and P content. These maps can help improve ecosystem models and generate new hypotheses about phosphorus availability in the Amazon.
Shuyue Li, Bonnie Waring, Jennifer Powers, and David Medvigy
Biogeosciences, 21, 455–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used an ecosystem model to simulate primary production of a tropical forest subjected to 3 years of nutrient fertilization. Simulations parameterized such that relative allocation to fine roots increased with increasing soil phosphorus had leaf, wood, and fine root production consistent with observations. However, these simulations seemed to over-allocate to fine roots on multidecadal timescales, affecting aboveground biomass. Additional observations across timescales would benefit models.
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Kevin R. Wilcox, Scott L. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, William Pockman, Zheng Shi, Melinda D. Smith, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 20, 2707–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The capacity for carbon storage (C capacity) is an attribute that determines how ecosystems store carbon in the future. Here, we employ novel data–model integration techniques to identify the carbon capacity of six grassland sites spanning the US Great Plains. Hot and dry sites had low C capacity due to less plant growth and high turnover of soil C, so they may be a C source in the future. Alternately, cooler and wetter ecosystems had high C capacity, so these systems may be a future C sink.
German Vargas Gutiérrez, Daniel Pérez-Aviles, Nanette Raczka, Damaris Pereira-Arias, Julián Tijerín-Triviño, L. David Pereira-Arias, David Medvigy, Bonnie G. Waring, Ember Morrisey, Edward Brzostek, and Jennifer S. Powers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2143–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To study whether nutrient availability controls tropical dry forest responses to reductions in soil moisture, we established the first troughfall exclusion experiment in a tropical dry forest plantation system crossed with a fertilization scheme. We found that the effects of fertilization on net primary productivity are larger than the effects of a ~15 % reduction in soil moisture, although in many cases we observed an interaction between drought and nutrient additions, suggesting colimitation.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Studies analyzing the impact of the future climate on ecosystems employ climate projections simulated by global circulation models. These climate projections display biases that translate into significant uncertainty in projections of the future carbon cycle. Here, we test different methods to constrain the uncertainty in simulations of the carbon cycle over Australia. We find that all methods reduce the bias in the steady-state carbon variables but that temporal properties do not improve.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
David Martín Belda, Peter Anthoni, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6709–6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow us to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modelled vegetation processes. The modelled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 21 sites from the FLUXNET network.
Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6495–6519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyzed these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water, mortality, and climate, with an increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
Phillip Papastefanou, Christian S. Zang, Zlatan Angelov, Aline Anderson de Castro, Juan Carlos Jimenez, Luiz Felipe Campos De Rezende, Romina C. Ruscica, Boris Sakschewski, Anna A. Sörensson, Kirsten Thonicke, Carolina Vera, Nicolas Viovy, Celso Von Randow, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 19, 3843–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Amazon rainforest has been hit by multiple severe drought events. In this study, we assess the severity and spatial extent of the extreme drought years 2005, 2010 and 2015/16 in the Amazon. Using nine different precipitation datasets and three drought indicators we find large differences in drought stress across the Amazon region. We conclude that future studies should use multiple rainfall datasets and drought indicators when estimating the impact of drought stress in the Amazon region.
Shuang Ma, Lifen Jiang, Rachel M. Wilson, Jeff P. Chanton, Scott Bridgham, Shuli Niu, Colleen M. Iversen, Avni Malhotra, Jiang Jiang, Xingjie Lu, Yuanyuan Huang, Jason Keller, Xiaofeng Xu, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul J. Hanson, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 19, 2245–2262, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The relative ratio of wetland methane (CH4) emission pathways determines how much CH4 is oxidized before leaving the soil. We found an ebullition modeling approach that has a better performance in deep layer pore water CH4 concentration. We suggest using this approach in land surface models to accurately represent CH4 emission dynamics and response to climate change. Our results also highlight that both CH4 flux and belowground concentration data are important to constrain model parameters.
Adrian Gustafson, Paul A. Miller, Robert G. Björk, Stefan Olin, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 6329–6347, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and for carbon storage. In Europe, forests are intensively managed. To understand how management influences carbon storage in European forests, we implement detailed forest management into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We test the model by comparing model output to typical forestry measures, such as growing stock and harvest data, for different countries in Europe.
Xin Huang, Dan Lu, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul J. Hanson, Andrew D. Richardson, Xuehe Lu, Ensheng Weng, Sheng Nie, Lifen Jiang, Enqing Hou, Igor F. Steinmacher, and Yiqi Luo
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5217–5238, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5217-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5217-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the data-rich era, data assimilation is widely used to integrate abundant observations into models to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasting. However, applications of data assimilation are restricted by highly technical requirements. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module which is friendly to ecologists with limited programming skills. MIDA also supports a flexible switch of different models or observations in DA analysis.
Rafael Poyatos, Víctor Granda, Víctor Flo, Mark A. Adams, Balázs Adorján, David Aguadé, Marcos P. M. Aidar, Scott Allen, M. Susana Alvarado-Barrientos, Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Luiza Maria Aparecido, M. Altaf Arain, Ismael Aranda, Heidi Asbjornsen, Robert Baxter, Eric Beamesderfer, Z. Carter Berry, Daniel Berveiller, Bethany Blakely, Johnny Boggs, Gil Bohrer, Paul V. Bolstad, Damien Bonal, Rosvel Bracho, Patricia Brito, Jason Brodeur, Fernando Casanoves, Jérôme Chave, Hui Chen, Cesar Cisneros, Kenneth Clark, Edoardo Cremonese, Hongzhong Dang, Jorge S. David, Teresa S. David, Nicolas Delpierre, Ankur R. Desai, Frederic C. Do, Michal Dohnal, Jean-Christophe Domec, Sebinasi Dzikiti, Colin Edgar, Rebekka Eichstaedt, Tarek S. El-Madany, Jan Elbers, Cleiton B. Eller, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Brent Ewers, Patrick Fonti, Alicia Forner, David I. Forrester, Helber C. Freitas, Marta Galvagno, Omar Garcia-Tejera, Chandra Prasad Ghimire, Teresa E. Gimeno, John Grace, André Granier, Anne Griebel, Yan Guangyu, Mark B. Gush, Paul J. Hanson, Niles J. Hasselquist, Ingo Heinrich, Virginia Hernandez-Santana, Valentine Herrmann, Teemu Hölttä, Friso Holwerda, James Irvine, Supat Isarangkool Na Ayutthaya, Paul G. Jarvis, Hubert Jochheim, Carlos A. Joly, Julia Kaplick, Hyun Seok Kim, Leif Klemedtsson, Heather Kropp, Fredrik Lagergren, Patrick Lane, Petra Lang, Andrei Lapenas, Víctor Lechuga, Minsu Lee, Christoph Leuschner, Jean-Marc Limousin, Juan Carlos Linares, Maj-Lena Linderson, Anders Lindroth, Pilar Llorens, Álvaro López-Bernal, Michael M. Loranty, Dietmar Lüttschwager, Cate Macinnis-Ng, Isabelle Maréchaux, Timothy A. Martin, Ashley Matheny, Nate McDowell, Sean McMahon, Patrick Meir, Ilona Mészáros, Mirco Migliavacca, Patrick Mitchell, Meelis Mölder, Leonardo Montagnani, Georgianne W. Moore, Ryogo Nakada, Furong Niu, Rachael H. Nolan, Richard Norby, Kimberly Novick, Walter Oberhuber, Nikolaus Obojes, A. Christopher Oishi, Rafael S. Oliveira, Ram Oren, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Teemu Paljakka, Oscar Perez-Priego, Pablo L. Peri, Richard L. Peters, Sebastian Pfautsch, William T. Pockman, Yakir Preisler, Katherine Rascher, George Robinson, Humberto Rocha, Alain Rocheteau, Alexander Röll, Bruno H. P. Rosado, Lucy Rowland, Alexey V. Rubtsov, Santiago Sabaté, Yann Salmon, Roberto L. Salomón, Elisenda Sánchez-Costa, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Bernhard Schuldt, Alexandr Shashkin, Clément Stahl, Marko Stojanović, Juan Carlos Suárez, Ge Sun, Justyna Szatniewska, Fyodor Tatarinov, Miroslav Tesař, Frank M. Thomas, Pantana Tor-ngern, Josef Urban, Fernando Valladares, Christiaan van der Tol, Ilja van Meerveld, Andrej Varlagin, Holm Voigt, Jeffrey Warren, Christiane Werner, Willy Werner, Gerhard Wieser, Lisa Wingate, Stan Wullschleger, Koong Yi, Roman Zweifel, Kathy Steppe, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2607–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Transpiration is a key component of global water balance, but it is poorly constrained from available observations. We present SAPFLUXNET, the first global database of tree-level transpiration from sap flow measurements, containing 202 datasets and covering a wide range of ecological conditions. SAPFLUXNET and its accompanying R software package
sapfluxnetrwill facilitate new data syntheses on the ecological factors driving water use and drought responses of trees and forests.
Gilvan Sampaio, Marília H. Shimizu, Carlos A. Guimarães-Júnior, Felipe Alexandre, Marcelo Guatura, Manoel Cardoso, Tomas F. Domingues, Anja Rammig, Celso von Randow, Luiz F. C. Rezende, and David M. Lapola
Biogeosciences, 18, 2511–2525, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2511-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of large-scale deforestation and the physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on Amazon rainfall are systematically compared in this study. Our results are remarkable in showing that the two disturbances cause equivalent rainfall decrease, though through different causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of not only curbing regional deforestation but also reducing global CO2 emissions to avoid climatic changes in the Amazon.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 2181–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes changes in the sea surface temperature patterns of the Pacific Ocean. This influences the global weather, impacting vegetation on land. There are two types of El Niño: central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP). In this study, we explored the long-term impacts on the carbon balance on land linked to the two El Niño types. Using a dynamic vegetation model, we simulated what would happen if only either CP or EP El Niño events had occurred.
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez, Jennifer A. Holm, Boris Faybishenko, Daniel Magnabosco-Marra, Rosie A. Fisher, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Alessandro C. de Araujo, William J. Riley, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Biogeosciences, 17, 6185–6205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The temporal variability in the Landsat satellite near-infrared (NIR) band captured the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances in Central Amazon. This variability was represented by the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances were properly represented by the ELM-FATES model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM)).
Erqian Cui, Chenyu Bian, Yiqi Luo, Shuli Niu, Yingping Wang, and Jianyang Xia
Biogeosciences, 17, 6237–6246, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6237-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6237-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is related to the magnitude of the carbon sink of a specific ecosystem, while its inter-annual variation (IAVNEP) characterizes the stability of such a carbon sink. Thus, a better understanding of the co-varying NEP and IAVNEP is critical for locating the major and stable carbon sinks on land. Based on daily NEP observations from eddy-covariance sites, we found local indicators for the spatially varying NEP and IAVNEP, respectively.
Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Marko Scholze, Matthew Lang, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Naomi E. Smith, Rona L. Thompson, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Emily White, Antoon Meesters, Philippe Ciais, Anita L. Ganesan, Alistair Manning, Michael Mischurow, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Jerôme Tarniewicz, Matt Rigby, Christian Rödenbeck, Alex Vermeulen, and Evie M. Walton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12063–12091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the first results from the EUROCOM project, a regional atmospheric inversion intercomparison exercise involving six European research groups. It aims to produce an estimate of the net carbon flux between the European terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere for the period 2006–2015, based on constraints provided by observed CO2 concentrations and using inverse modelling techniques. The use of six different models enables us to investigate the robustness of the results.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Akane O. Abbasi, Alejandro Salazar, Youmi Oh, Sabine Reinsch, Maria del Rosario Uribe, Jianghanyang Li, Irfan Rashid, and Jeffrey S. Dukes
Biogeosciences, 17, 3859–3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3859-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3859-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we provide a holistic view of soil responses to precipitation changes. A total of 16 meta-analyses focusing on the effects of precipitation changes on 42 soil response variables were compared. A strong agreement was found that the belowground carbon and nitrogen cycling accelerate under increased precipitation and slow under decreased precipitation, while bacterial and fungal communities are relatively resistant to decreased precipitation. Knowledge gaps were also identified.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Jian Zhou, Jianyang Xia, Ning Wei, Yufu Liu, Chenyu Bian, Yuqi Bai, and Yiqi Luo
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-76, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The increase of model complexity and data volume challenges the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs), which mainly stems from the untraceable, unautomatic, and high computational costs. Here, we built up an online Traceability analysis system for Model Evaluation (TraceME), which is traceable, automatic and shareable. The TraceME (v1.0) can trace the structural uncertainty of simulated carbon (C) storage in ESMs and provide some new implications for the next generation of model evaluation.
Allan Buras, Anja Rammig, and Christian S. Zang
Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares the climatic conditions and ecosystem response of the extreme European drought of 2018 with the previous extreme drought of 2003. Using gridded climate data and satellite-based remote sensing information, our analyses qualify 2018 as the new European record drought with wide-ranging negative impacts on European ecosystems. Given the observation of forest-legacy effects in 2019 we call for Europe-wide forest monitoring to assess forest vulnerability to climate change.
Nora Linscheid, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Alexander Brenning, Nuno Carvalhais, Felix Cremer, Fabian Gans, Anja Rammig, Markus Reichstein, Carlos A. Sierra, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 945–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation typically responds to variation in temperature and rainfall within days. Yet seasonal changes in meteorological conditions, as well as decadal climate variability, additionally shape the state of ecosystems. It remains unclear how vegetation responds to climate variability on these different timescales. We find that the vegetation response to climate variability depends on the timescale considered. This scale dependency should be considered for modeling land–atmosphere interactions.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, David M. Medvigy, Naomi M. Levine, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Abigail L. S. Swann, Ke Zhang, Christine R. Rollinson, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4309–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper describes the Ecosystem Demography model. This computer program calculates how plants and ground exchange heat, water, and carbon with the air, and how plants grow, reproduce and die in different climates. Most models simplify forests to an average big tree. We consider that tall, deep-rooted trees get more light and water than small plants, and that some plants can with shade and drought. This diversity helps us to better explain how plants live and interact with the atmosphere.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, Naomi M. Levine, Abigail L. S. Swann, David M. Medvigy, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Ke Zhang, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Plínio B. Camargo, Matthew N. Hayek, Scott R. Saleska, Rodrigo da Silva, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4347–4374, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Ecosystem Demography model calculates the fluxes of heat, water, and carbon between plants and ground and the air, and the life cycle of plants in different climates. To test if our calculations were reasonable, we compared our results with field and satellite measurements. Our model predicts well the extent of the Amazon forest, how much light forests absorb, and how much water forests release to the air. However, it must improve the tree growth rates and how fast dead plants decompose.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
Yuanyuan Huang, Mark Stacy, Jiang Jiang, Nilutpal Sundi, Shuang Ma, Volodymyr Saruta, Chang Gyo Jung, Zheng Shi, Jianyang Xia, Paul J. Hanson, Daniel Ricciuto, and Yiqi Luo
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1119–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1119-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting future changes in ecosystem services is not only highly desirable but is also becoming feasible as several forces are converging to transform ecological research into quantitative forecasting. To realize ecological forecasting, we have developed an Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD) into models. EcoPAD also has the potential to become an interactive tool for resource management, stimulate citizen science in ecology, and transform environmental education.
Veiko Lehsten, Michael Mischurow, Erik Lindström, Dörte Lehsten, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 893–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-893-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-893-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To assess the effect of climate on vegetation, dynamic vegetation models simulate their response e.g. to climate change. Most currently used dynamic vegetation models ignore the fact that for colonization of a new area not only do the climatic conditions have to be suitable, but seeds also need to arrive at the site to allow the species to migrate there. In this paper we are developing a novel method which allows us to simulate migration within dynamic vegetation models even at large scale.
Jing Wang, Jianyang Xia, Xuhui Zhou, Kun Huang, Jian Zhou, Yuanyuan Huang, Lifen Jiang, Xia Xu, Junyi Liang, Ying-Ping Wang, Xiaoli Cheng, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 16, 917–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-917-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-917-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Soil is critical in mitigating climate change mainly because soil carbon turns over much slower in soils than vegetation and the atmosphere. However, Earth system models (ESMs) have large uncertainty in simulating carbon dynamics due to their biased estimation of soil carbon transit time (τsoil). Here, the τsoil estimates from 12 ESMs that participated in CMIP5 were evaluated by a database of measured τsoil. We detected a large spatial variation in measured τsoil across the globe.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Qianyu Li, Xingjie Lu, Yingping Wang, Xin Huang, Peter M. Cox, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 15, 6909–6925, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Land-surface models have been widely used to predict the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of model mechanisms that govern terrestrial ecosystem responses to rising atmosphere [CO2] is needed. Our study for the first time shows that the expansion of leaf area under rising [CO2] is the most important response for the stimulation of land carbon accumulation by a land-surface model: CABLE. Processes related to leaf area should be better calibrated.
Xingjie Lu, Ying-Ping Wang, Yiqi Luo, and Lifen Jiang
Biogeosciences, 15, 6559–6572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6559-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
How long does C cycle through terrestrial ecosystems is a critical question for understanding land C sequestration capacity under future rising atmosphere [CO2] and climate warming. Under climate change, previous conventional concepts with a steady-state assumption will no longer be suitable for a non-steady state. Our results using the new concept, C transit time, suggest more significant responses in terrestrial C cycle under rising [CO2] and climate warming.
Zhenggang Du, Ensheng Weng, Lifen Jiang, Yiqi Luo, Jianyang Xia, and Xuhui Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4399–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4399-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4399-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, based on a traceability analysis technique, we evaluated alternative representations of C–N interactions and their impacts on the C cycle using the TECO model framework. Our results showed that different representations of C–N coupling processes lead to divergent effects on plant production, C residence time, and thus the ecosystem C storage capacity. Identifying those effects can help us to improve the N limitation assumptions employed in terrestrial ecosystem models.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Yuanyuan Huang, Yiqi Luo, Ying-Ping Wang, A. Anthony Bloom, Grégoire Broquet, Jens Hartmann, Shushi Peng, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Jordi Sardans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rong Wang, Sönke Zaehle, and Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3903–3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new modeling framework called Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines a data-constrained C-cycle analysis with data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. GOLUM-CNP provides a traceable tool, where a consistency between different datasets of global C, N, and P cycles has been achieved.
Vanessa Haverd, Benjamin Smith, Lars Nieradzik, Peter R. Briggs, William Woodgate, Cathy M. Trudinger, Josep G. Canadell, and Matthias Cuntz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
CABLE is a terrestrial biosphere model that can be applied stand-alone and provides for land surface–atmosphere exchange within a climate model. We extend CABLE for regional and global carbon–climate simulations, accounting for land use and land cover change mediated by tree demography. A novel algorithm to simulate the coordination of rate-limiting photosynthetic processes is also implemented. Simulations satisfy multiple observational constraints on the global land carbon cycle.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, Hester Biemans, Matthias Forkel, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jürgen Knauer, Fanny Langerwisch, Wolfgang Lucht, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here we provide a comprehensive model description of a global terrestrial biosphere model, named LPJmL4, incorporating the carbon and water cycle and the quantification of agricultural production. The model allows for the consistent and joint quantification of climate and land use change impacts on the biosphere. The model represents the key ecosystem functions, but also the influence of humans on the biosphere. It comes with an evaluation paper to demonstrate the credibility of LPJmL4.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Christoph Müller, Jürgen Knauer, Werner von Bloh, Dieter Gerten, Jonas Jägermeyr, Wolfgang Lucht, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1377–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the now launched version 4.0 of the LPJmL biosphere, water, and agricultural model. The article is the second part to a comprehensive description of the LPJmL4 model. We have evaluated the model against various datasets of satellite observations, agricultural statistics, and in situ measurements by applying a range of metrics. We are able to show that the LPJmL4 model simulates many parameters and relations reasonably.
Jannis von Buttlar, Jakob Zscheischler, Anja Rammig, Sebastian Sippel, Markus Reichstein, Alexander Knohl, Martin Jung, Olaf Menzer, M. Altaf Arain, Nina Buchmann, Alessandro Cescatti, Damiano Gianelle, Gerard Kiely, Beverly E. Law, Vincenzo Magliulo, Hank Margolis, Harry McCaughey, Lutz Merbold, Mirco Migliavacca, Leonardo Montagnani, Walter Oechel, Marian Pavelka, Matthias Peichl, Serge Rambal, Antonio Raschi, Russell L. Scott, Francesco P. Vaccari, Eva van Gorsel, Andrej Varlagin, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our work systematically quantifies extreme heat and drought event impacts on gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration globally across a wide range of ecosystems. We show that heat extremes typically increased mainly respiration whereas drought decreased both fluxes. Combined heat and drought extremes had opposing effects offsetting each other for respiration, but there were also strong reductions in GPP and hence the strongest reductions in the ecosystems carbon sink capacity.
Anna T. Trugman, David Medvigy, William A. Hoffmann, and Adam F. A. Pellegrini
Biogeosciences, 15, 233–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-233-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-233-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tree fire tolerance strategies may significantly impact woody carbon stability and the existence of tropical savannas under global climate change. We used a numerical ecosystem model to test the impacts of fire survival strategy under differing fire and rainfall regimes. We found that the high survival rate of large fire-tolerant trees reduced carbon losses with increasing fire frequency, and reduced the range of conditions leading to either complete tree loss or complete grass loss.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Karin T. Rebel, Stefan C. Dekker, Benjamin Smith, Arthur H. W. Beusen, and Martin J. Wassen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1121–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO2 concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gabriel Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Caitlin Moore, Youngryel Ryu, Simon Scheiter, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 14, 4711–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper attempts to review some of the current challenges faced by the modelling community in simulating the behaviour of savanna ecosystems. We provide a particular focus on three dynamic processes (phenology, root-water access, and fire) that are characteristic of savannas, which we believe are not adequately represented in current-generation terrestrial biosphere models. We highlight reasons for these misrepresentations, possible solutions and a future direction for research in this area.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
Kerstin Engström, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, John Hassler, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 773–799, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Applying a global carbon tax on fossil was shown to lead to increased bioenergy production in four out of five scenarios. Increased bioenergy production led to global cropland changes that were up to 50 % larger by 2100 compared to the reference case (without global carbon tax). For scenarios with strong cropland expansion due to high population growth coupled with low technological change or bioenergy production, the biosphere was simulated to switch from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Andreas Brændholt, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, Andreas Ibrom, and Kim Pilegaard
Biogeosciences, 14, 1603–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1603-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1603-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we found that CO2 fluxes from soil measured by the closed-chamber technique were overestimated during low atmospheric turbulence. This resulted in biased courses of CO2 fluxes during a day. We removed CO2 fluxes measured at low turbulence, which gave better flux estimates. We furthermore tested a novel technique that provided good measurement during low turbulence, thereby giving better estimates of CO2 emissions from soils, which is a crucial part of the global carbon cycle.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Fanny Langerwisch, Ariane Walz, Anja Rammig, Britta Tietjen, Kirsten Thonicke, and Wolfgang Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 953–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Amazonia is heavily impacted by climate change and deforestation. During annual flooding terrigenous material is imported to the river, converted and finally exported to the ocean or the atmosphere. Changes in the vegetation alter therefore riverine carbon dynamics. Our results show that due to deforestation organic carbon amount will strongly decrease both in the river and exported to the ocean, while inorganic carbon amounts will increase, in the river as well as exported to the atmosphere.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Minchao Wu, Guy Schurgers, Markku Rummukainen, Benjamin Smith, Patrick Samuelsson, Christer Jansson, Joe Siltberg, and Wilhelm May
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 627–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
On Earth, vegetation does not merely adapt to climate but also imposes significant influences on climate with both local and remote effects. In this study we evaluated the role of vegetation in African climate with a regional Earth system model. By the comparison between the experiments with and without dynamic vegetation changes, we found that vegetation can influence climate remotely, resulting in modulating rainfall patterns over Africa.
F. Langerwisch, A. Walz, A. Rammig, B. Tietjen, K. Thonicke, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 559–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In Amazonia, carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding. We applied the newly developed model RivCM to several climate change scenarios to estimate potential changes in riverine carbon. We find that climate change causes substantial changes in riverine organic and inorganic carbon, as well as changes in carbon exported to the atmosphere and ocean. Such changes could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gab Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko Duursma, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Youngryel Ryu, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 13, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we assess how well terrestrial biosphere models perform at predicting water and carbon cycling for savanna ecosystems. We apply our models to five savanna sites in Northern Australia and highlight key causes for model failure. Our assessment of model performance uses a novel benchmarking system that scores a model’s predictive ability based on how well it is utilizing its driving information. On average, we found the models as a group display only moderate levels of performance.
V. Haverd, B. Smith, M. Raupach, P. Briggs, L. Nieradzik, J. Beringer, L. Hutley, C. M. Trudinger, and J. Cleverly
Biogeosciences, 13, 761–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation in savannas, and test it using data from the OzFlux network. Model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant physiology and vegetation dynamics, in response to resource availability, and not from imposed hypotheses about the controls on tree-grass co-existence. Results indicate that resource limitation is a stronger determinant of tree cover than disturbance in Australian savannas.
R. A. Fisher, S. Muszala, M. Verteinstein, P. Lawrence, C. Xu, N. G. McDowell, R. G. Knox, C. Koven, J. Holm, B. M. Rogers, A. Spessa, D. Lawrence, and G. Bonan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting the distribution of vegetation under novel climates is important, both to understand how climate change will impact ecosystem services, but also to understand how vegetation changes might affect the carbon, energy and water cycles. Historically, predictions have been heavily dependent upon observations of existing vegetation boundaries. In this paper, we attempt to predict ecosystem boundaries from the ``bottom up'', and illustrate the complexities and promise of this approach.
J. Tang, P. A. Miller, A. Persson, D. Olefeldt, P. Pilesjö, M. Heliasz, M. Jackowicz-Korczynski, Z. Yang, B. Smith, T. V. Callaghan, and T. R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 12, 2791–2808, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2791-2015, 2015
S. Olin, G. Schurgers, M. Lindeskog, D. Wårlind, B. Smith, P. Bodin, J. Holmér, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015
S. Rolinski, A. Rammig, A. Walz, W. von Bloh, M. van Oijen, and K. Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 12, 1813–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme weather events can but do not have to cause extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions.
We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment and apply it to terrestrial ecosystems, defining a hazard as negative net biome productivity. In Europe, ecosystems are vulnerable to drought in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas vulnerability in Scandinavia is not caused by water shortages.
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
B. Bond-Lamberty, J. P. Fisk, J. A. Holm, V. Bailey, G. Bohrer, and C. M. Gough
Biogeosciences, 12, 513–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-513-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-513-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
How will aging forests behave as they undergo ecological transitions? Can our models, which support scientific, policy, and management analyses, accurately simulate these transitions? We tested whether three forest ecosystem models could reproduce dynamics observed in an experimentally manipulated forest in northern Michigan, USA. None of the models fully captured the post-disturbance C fluxes observed, raising doubts about their ability to simulate tree death after moderate disturbances.
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
J. A. Holm, J. Q. Chambers, W. D. Collins, and N. Higuchi
Biogeosciences, 11, 5773–5794, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5773-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5773-2014, 2014
W. Zhang, C. Jansson, P. A. Miller, B. Smith, and P. Samuelsson
Biogeosciences, 11, 5503–5519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, 2014
J. A. Holm, K. Jardine, A. B. Guenther, J. Q. Chambers, and E. Tribuzy
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23995-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23995-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
V. Haverd, B. Smith, L. P. Nieradzik, and P. R. Briggs
Biogeosciences, 11, 4039–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, 2014
S. Vicca, M. Bahn, M. Estiarte, E. E. van Loon, R. Vargas, G. Alberti, P. Ambus, M. A. Arain, C. Beier, L. P. Bentley, W. Borken, N. Buchmann, S. L. Collins, G. de Dato, J. S. Dukes, C. Escolar, P. Fay, G. Guidolotti, P. J. Hanson, A. Kahmen, G. Kröel-Dulay, T. Ladreiter-Knauss, K. S. Larsen, E. Lellei-Kovacs, E. Lebrija-Trejos, F. T. Maestre, S. Marhan, M. Marshall, P. Meir, Y. Miao, J. Muhr, P. A. Niklaus, R. Ogaya, J. Peñuelas, C. Poll, L. E. Rustad, K. Savage, A. Schindlbacher, I. K. Schmidt, A. R. Smith, E. D. Sotta, V. Suseela, A. Tietema, N. van Gestel, O. van Straaten, S. Wan, U. Weber, and I. A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 11, 2991–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2991-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2991-2014, 2014
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
Z. Shi, M. L. Thomey, W. Mowll, M. Litvak, N. A. Brunsell, S. L. Collins, W. T. Pockman, M. D. Smith, A. K. Knapp, and Y. Luo
Biogeosciences, 11, 621–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-621-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-621-2014, 2014
M. Lindeskog, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, K. Waha, J. Seaquist, S. Olin, and B. Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013
J. H. Shim, H. H. Powers, C. W. Meyer, A. Knohl, T. E. Dawson, W. J. Riley, W. T. Pockman, and N. McDowell
Biogeosciences, 10, 4937–4956, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4937-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Terrestrial
A 2001–2022 global gross primary productivity dataset using an ensemble model based on the random forest method
Future projections of Siberian wildfire and aerosol emissions
Mechanisms of soil organic carbon and nitrogen stabilization in mineral-associated organic matter – insights from modeling in phase space
Optimizing the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity using carbonyl sulfide (COS) within a two-leaf modeling framework
Modeling integrated soil fertility management for maize production in Kenya using a Bayesian calibration of the DayCent model
Estimates of critical loads and exceedances of acidity and nutrient nitrogen for mineral soils in Canada for 2014–2016 average annual sulphur and nitrogen atmospheric deposition
Understanding and simulating cropland and non-cropland burning in Europe using the BASE (Burnt Area Simulator for Europe) model
When and why microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models can be unstable
The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback
Climate-based prediction of carbon fluxes from deadwood in Australia
Integration of tree hydraulic processes and functional impairment to capture the drought resilience of a semiarid pine forest
The effect of temperature on photosystem II efficiency across plant functional types and climate
Modeling microbial carbon fluxes and stocks in global soils from 1901 to 2016
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and vegetation structural changes contributed to gross primary productivity increase more than climate and forest cover changes in subtropical forests of China
Developing the DO3SE-crop model for Xiaoji, China
Non-steady-state stomatal conductance modeling and its implications: from leaf to ecosystem
Modelled forest ecosystem carbon–nitrogen dynamics with integrated mycorrhizal processes under elevated CO2
A chemical kinetics theory for interpreting the non-monotonic temperature dependence of enzymatic reactions
Representation of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in CMIP6
Using Free Air CO2 Enrichment data to constrain land surface model projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle
Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance
Simulating net ecosystem exchange under seasonal snow cover at an Arctic tundra site
X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X
Spatial biases reduce the ability of Earth system models to simulate soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes
Future methane fluxes of peatlands are controlled by management practices and fluctuations in hydrological conditions due to climatic variability
Tropical dry forest response to nutrient fertilization: a model validation and sensitivity analysis
Connecting competitor, stress-tolerator and ruderal (CSR) theory and Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land 5 (LPJmL 5) to assess the role of environmental conditions, management and functional diversity for grassland ecosystem functions
A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction
Can models adequately reflect how long-term nitrogen enrichment alters the forest soil carbon cycle?
Temporal variability of observed and simulated gross primary productivity, modulated by vegetation state and hydrometeorological drivers
Does dynamically modelled leaf area improve predictions of land surface water and carbon fluxes? – Insights into dynamic vegetation modules
Empirical upscaling of OzFlux eddy covariance for high-resolution monitoring of terrestrial carbon uptake in Australia
A modeling approach to investigate drivers, variability and uncertainties in O2 fluxes and O2 : CO2 exchange ratios in a temperate forest
Modeling coupled nitrification–denitrification in soil with an organic hotspot
A new method for estimating carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forest soils for the greenhouse gas inventory of Finland
Enabling a process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model to simulate soil erosion and nutrient losses
Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 1: A mechanistic model simulating the effects of potassium availability on canopy carbon and water fluxes in tropical eucalypt stands
Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 2: CASTANEA-MAESPA-K shows a reduction in photosynthesis rather than a stoichiometric limitation of tissue formation
Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance
Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration
Optimizing the carbonic anhydrase temperature response and stomatal conductance of carbonyl sulfide leaf uptake in the Simple Biosphere model (SiB4)
Exploring environmental and physiological drivers of the annual carbon budget of biocrusts from various climatic zones with a mechanistic data-driven model
Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance
Mapping of ESA's Climate Change Initiative land cover data to plant functional types for use in the CLASSIC land model
Effect of droughts and climate change on future soil weathering rates in Sweden
Information content in time series of litter decomposition studies and the transit time of litter in arid lands
Long-term changes of nitrogen leaching and the contributions of terrestrial nutrient sources to lake eutrophication dynamics on the Yangtze Plain of China
Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations
Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models
Effect of land-use legacy on the future carbon sink for the conterminous US
Xin Chen, Tiexi Chen, Xiaodong Li, Yuanfang Chai, Shengjie Zhou, Renjie Guo, and Jie Dai
Biogeosciences, 21, 4285–4300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an ensemble-model-based GPP dataset (ERF_GPP) that explains 85.1 % of the monthly variation in GPP across 170 sites, which is higher than other GPP estimate models. In addition, ERF_GPP improves the phenomenon of “high-value underestimation and low-value overestimation” in GPP estimation to some extent. Overall, ERF_GPP provides a more reliable estimate of global GPP and will facilitate further development of carbon cycle research.
Reza Kusuma Nurrohman, Tomomichi Kato, Hideki Ninomiya, Lea Végh, Nicolas Delbart, Tatsuya Miyauchi, Hisashi Sato, Tomohiro Shiraishi, and Ryuichi Hirata
Biogeosciences, 21, 4195–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) was integrated into a spatially explicit individual-based dynamic global vegetation model to improve the accuracy of depicting Siberian forest fire frequency, intensity, and extent. Fires showed increased greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions in 2006–2100 for Representative Concentration Pathways. This study contributes to understanding fire dynamics, land ecosystem–climate interactions, and global material cycles under the threat of escalating fires.
Stefano Manzoni and M. Francesca Cotrufo
Biogeosciences, 21, 4077–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4077-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Organic carbon and nitrogen are stabilized in soils via microbial assimilation and stabilization of necromass (in vivo pathway) or via adsorption of the products of extracellular decomposition (ex vivo pathway). Here we use a diagnostic model to quantify which stabilization pathway is prevalent using data on residue-derived carbon and nitrogen incorporation in mineral-associated organic matter. We find that the in vivo pathway is dominant in fine-textured soils with low organic matter content.
Huajie Zhu, Xiuli Xing, Mousong Wu, Weimin Ju, and Fei Jiang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3735–3760, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes were employed to optimize GPP estimation across ecosystems with the Biosphere-atmosphere Exchange Process Simulator (BEPS), which was developed for simulating the canopy COS uptake under its state-of-the-art two-leaf modeling framework. Our results showcased the efficacy of COS in improving model prediction and reducing prediction uncertainty of GPP and enhanced insights into the sensitivity, identifiability, and interactions of parameters related to COS.
Moritz Laub, Magdalena Necpalova, Marijn Van de Broek, Marc Corbeels, Samuel Mathu Ndungu, Monicah Wanjiku Mucheru-Muna, Daniel Mugendi, Rebecca Yegon, Wycliffe Waswa, Bernard Vanlauwe, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 21, 3691–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used the DayCent model to assess the potential impact of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) on maize production, soil fertility, and greenhouse gas emission in Kenya. After adjustments, DayCent represented measured mean yields and soil carbon stock changes well and N2O emissions acceptably. Our results showed that soil fertility losses could be reduced but not completely eliminated with ISFM and that, while N2O emissions increased with ISFM, emissions per kilogram yield decreased.
Hazel Cathcart, Julian Aherne, Michael D. Moran, Verica Savic-Jovcic, Paul A. Makar, and Amanda Cole
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2371, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deposition from sulfur and nitrogen pollution can harm ecosystems, and recovery from this type of pollution can take decades or longer. To identify risk to Canadian soils, we created maps showing sensitivity to sulfur and nitrogen pollution. Results show that some ecosystems are at risk from acid and nutrient nitrogen deposition; 10 % of protected areas are receiving acid deposition beyond their damage threshold and 70 % may be receiving nitrogen deposition that could cause biodiversity loss.
Matthew Forrest, Jessica Hetzer, Maik Billing, Simon P. K. Bowring, Eric Kosczor, Luke Oberhagemann, Oliver Perkins, Dan Warren, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Kirsten Thonicke, and Thomas Hickler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1973, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe but drivers of fire are not well understood, especially across different land cover types. We used statistical models with satellite data, climate data and socioeconomic data to determine what affects burning in cropland and non-cropland area Europe. We found different drivers of burning in cropland burning vs non-cropland, to the point that some variable, e.g. population density, had completely the opposite effects.
Erik Schwarz, Samia Ghersheen, Salim Belyazid, and Stefano Manzoni
Biogeosciences, 21, 3441–3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The occurrence of unstable equilibrium points (EPs) could impede the applicability of microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models. For archetypal model versions we identify when instability can occur and describe mathematical conditions to avoid such unstable EPs. We discuss implications for further model development, highlighting the important role of considering basic ecological principles to ensure biologically meaningful models.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, and Libo Wang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3339–3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial biosphere models can either prescribe the geographical distribution of biomes or simulate them dynamically, capturing climate-change-driven biome shifts. We isolate and examine the differences between these different land cover implementations. We find that the simulated terrestrial carbon sink at the end of the 21st century is twice as large in simulations with dynamic land cover than in simulations with prescribed land cover due to important range shifts in the Arctic and Amazon.
Elizabeth S. Duan, Luciana Chavez Rodriguez, Nicole Hemming-Schroeder, Baptiste Wijas, Habacuc Flores-Moreno, Alexander W. Cheesman, Lucas A. Cernusak, Michael J. Liddell, Paul Eggleton, Amy E. Zanne, and Steven D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 21, 3321–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the link between climate and carbon fluxes is crucial for predicting how climate change will impact carbon sinks. We estimated carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from deadwood in tropical Australia using wood moisture content and temperature. Our model predicted that the majority of deadwood carbon is released as CO2, except when termite activity is detected. Future models should also incorporate wood traits, like species and chemical composition, to better predict fluxes.
Daniel Nadal-Sala, Rüdiger Grote, David Kraus, Uri Hochberg, Tamir Klein, Yael Wagner, Fedor Tatarinov, Dan Yakir, and Nadine K. Ruehr
Biogeosciences, 21, 2973–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A hydraulic model approach is presented that can be added to any physiologically based ecosystem model. Simulated plant water potential triggers stomatal closure, photosynthesis decline, root–soil resistance increases, and sapwood and foliage senescence. The model has been evaluated at an extremely dry site stocked with Aleppo pine and was able to represent gas exchange, soil water content, and plant water potential. The model also responded realistically regarding leaf senescence.
Patrick Neri, Lianhong Gu, and Yang Song
Biogeosciences, 21, 2731–2758, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2731-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A first-of-its-kind global-scale model of temperature resilience and tolerance of photosystem II maximum quantum yield informs how plants maintain their efficiency of converting light energy to chemical energy for photosynthesis under temperature changes. Our finding explores this variation across plant functional types and habitat climatology, highlighting diverse temperature response strategies and a method to improve global-scale photosynthesis modeling under climate change.
Liyuan He, Jorge L. Mazza Rodrigues, Melanie A. Mayes, Chun-Ta Lai, David A. Lipson, and Xiaofeng Xu
Biogeosciences, 21, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2313-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil microbes are the driving engine for biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients. This study applies a microbial-explicit model to quantify bacteria and fungal biomass carbon in soils from 1901 to 2016. Results showed substantial increases in bacterial and fungal biomass carbon over the past century, jointly influenced by vegetation growth and soil temperature and moisture. This pioneering century-long estimation offers crucial insights into soil microbial roles in global carbon cycling.
Tao Chen, Félicien Meunier, Marc Peaucelle, Guoping Tang, Ye Yuan, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 21, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Chinese subtropical forest ecosystems are an extremely important component of global forest ecosystems and hence crucial for the global carbon cycle and regional climate change. However, there is still great uncertainty in the relationship between subtropical forest carbon sequestration and its drivers. We provide first quantitative estimates of the individual and interactive effects of different drivers on the gross primary productivity changes of various subtropical forest types in China.
Pritha Pande, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Jo Cook, Zhaozhong Feng, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-694, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The DO3SE-crop model extends the DO3SE to simulate ozone's impact on crops with modules for ozone uptake, damage, and crop growth from JULES-Crop. It's versatile, suits China's varied agriculture, and improves yield predictions under ozone stress. It is essential for policy, water management, and climate response, it integrates into Earth System Models for a comprehensive understanding of agriculture's interaction with global systems.
Ke Liu, Yujie Wang, Troy S. Magney, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 21, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stomata are pores on leaves that regulate gas exchange between plants and the atmosphere. Existing land models unrealistically assume stomata can jump between steady states when the environment changes. We implemented dynamic modeling to predict gradual stomatal responses at different scales. Results suggested that considering this effect on plant behavior patterns in diurnal cycles was important. Our framework also simplified simulations and can contribute to further efficiency improvements.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 21, 1061–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A chemical kinetics theory is proposed to explain the non-monotonic relationship between temperature and biochemical rates. It incorporates the observed thermally reversible enzyme denaturation that is ensured by the ceaseless thermal motion of molecules and ions in an enzyme solution and three well-established theories: (1) law of mass action, (2) diffusion-limited chemical reaction theory, and (3) transition state theory.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-277, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates present day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with nitrogen cycle is found, as well as only small differences between emission and concentration based simulations. Thus, we recommend the use of emission driven simulations in CMIP7 as default setup, and to view the nitrogen cycle as a necessary part of all future carbon cycle models.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Kelsey T. Foster, Wu Sun, Yoichi P. Shiga, Jiafu Mao, and Anna M. Michalak
Biogeosciences, 21, 869–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing agreement between bottom-up and top-down methods across spatial scales can provide insights into the relationship between ensemble spread (difference across models) and model accuracy (difference between model estimates and reality). We find that ensemble spread is unlikely to be a good indicator of actual uncertainty in the North American carbon balance. However, models that are consistent with atmospheric constraints show stronger agreement between top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Ulrich Weber, Kimberly Novick, Nina Buchmann, Mirco Migliavacca, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ladislav Šigut, Andreas Ibrom, Dario Papale, Mathias Göckede, Gregory Duveiller, Alexander Knohl, Lukas Hörtnagl, Russell L. Scott, Weijie Zhang, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, Markus Reichstein, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Jonas Ardö, Maarten Op de Beeck, Dave Billdesbach, David Bowling, Rosvel Bracho, Christian Brümmer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Shiping Chen, Jamie Rose Cleverly, Ankur Desai, Gang Dong, Tarek S. El-Madany, Eugenie Susanne Euskirchen, Iris Feigenwinter, Marta Galvagno, Giacomo Gerosa, Bert Gielen, Ignacio Goded, Sarah Goslee, Christopher Michael Gough, Bernard Heinesch, Kazuhito Ichii, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Anne Klosterhalfen, Sara Knox, Hideki Kobayashi, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Mika Korkiakoski, Ivan Mammarella, Gharun Mana, Riccardo Marzuoli, Roser Matamala, Stefan Metzger, Leonardo Montagnani, Giacomo Nicolini, Thomas O'Halloran, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Borja Ruiz Reverter, Marilyn Roland, Simone Sabbatini, Torsten Sachs, Marius Schmidt, Christopher R. Schwalm, Ankit Shekhar, Richard Silberstein, Maria Lucia Silveira, Donatella Spano, Torbern Tagesson, Gianluca Tramontana, Carlo Trotta, Fabio Turco, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Domenico Vitale, Enrique R. Vivoni, Yi Wang, William Woodgate, Enrico A. Yepez, Junhui Zhang, Donatella Zona, and Martin Jung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-165, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the earth surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand that impacts all of our lives. Here we outline a method to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from site around the world called FLUXCOM-X. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Vilna Tyystjärvi, Tiina Markkanen, Leif Backman, Maarit Raivonen, Antti Leppänen, Xuefei Li, Paavo Ojanen, Kari Minkkinen, Roosa Hautala, Mikko Peltoniemi, Jani Anttila, Raija Laiho, Annalea Lohila, Raisa Mäkipää, and Tuula Aalto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3037, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drainage of boreal peatlands strongly influences soil methane fluxes with important implications to their climatic impacts. Here we simulate methane fluxes in forestry-drained and restored peatlands during the 21st century. We found that restoration turned peatlands to a source of methane but the magnitude varied regionally. In forests, changes in water table level influenced methane fluxes and in general, the sink was weaker under rotational forestry compared to continuous cover forestry.
Shuyue Li, Bonnie Waring, Jennifer Powers, and David Medvigy
Biogeosciences, 21, 455–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used an ecosystem model to simulate primary production of a tropical forest subjected to 3 years of nutrient fertilization. Simulations parameterized such that relative allocation to fine roots increased with increasing soil phosphorus had leaf, wood, and fine root production consistent with observations. However, these simulations seemed to over-allocate to fine roots on multidecadal timescales, affecting aboveground biomass. Additional observations across timescales would benefit models.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Joe R. McNorton and Francesca Di Giuseppe
Biogeosciences, 21, 279–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires have wide-ranging consequences for local communities, air quality and ecosystems. Vegetation amount and moisture state are key components to forecast wildfires. We developed a combined model and satellite framework to characterise vegetation, including the type of fuel, whether it is alive or dead, and its moisture content. The daily data is at high resolution globally (~9 km). Our characteristics correlate with active fire data and can inform fire danger and spread modelling efforts.
Brooke A. Eastman, William R. Wieder, Melannie D. Hartman, Edward R. Brzostek, and William T. Peterjohn
Biogeosciences, 21, 201–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-201-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compared soil model performance to data from a long-term nitrogen addition experiment in a forested ecosystem. We found that in order for soil carbon models to accurately predict future forest carbon sequestration, two key processes must respond dynamically to nitrogen availability: (1) plant allocation of carbon to wood versus roots and (2) rates of soil organic matter decomposition. Long-term experiments can help improve our predictions of the land carbon sink and its climate impact.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Sven Armin Westermann, Anke Hildebrandt, Souhail Bousetta, and Stephan Thober
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2101, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plants at the land surface mediates between soil and atmosphere regarding water and carbon transport. Since plant growth is a dynamic process, models need to care for this dynamics. Here, two models which predict water and carbon fluxes by considering plant temporal evolution were tested against observational data. Currently, dynamizing plants in these models did not enhance their representativeness which is caused by a mismatch between implemented physical relations and observable connections.
Chad A. Burton, Luigi J. Renzullo, Sami W. Rifai, and Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4109–4134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Australia's land-based ecosystems play a critical role in controlling the variability in the global land carbon sink. However, uncertainties in the methods used for quantifying carbon fluxes limit our understanding. We develop high-resolution estimates of Australia's land carbon fluxes using machine learning methods and find that Australia is, on average, a stronger carbon sink than previously thought and that the seasonal dynamics of the fluxes differ from those described by other methods.
Yuan Yan, Anne Klosterhalfen, Fernando Moyano, Matthias Cuntz, Andrew C. Manning, and Alexander Knohl
Biogeosciences, 20, 4087–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A better understanding of O2 fluxes, their exchange ratios with CO2 and their interrelations with environmental conditions would provide further insights into biogeochemical ecosystem processes. We, therefore, used the multilayer canopy model CANVEG to simulate and analyze the flux exchange for our forest study site for 2012–2016. Based on these simulations, we further successfully tested the application of various micrometeorological methods and the prospects of real O2 flux measurements.
Jie Zhang, Elisabeth Larsen Kolstad, Wenxin Zhang, Iris Vogeler, and Søren O. Petersen
Biogeosciences, 20, 3895–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Manure application to agricultural land often results in large and variable N2O emissions. We propose a model with a parsimonious structure to investigate N transformations around such N2O hotspots. The model allows for new detailed insights into the interactions between transport and microbial activities regarding N2O emissions in heterogeneous soil environments. It highlights the importance of solute diffusion to N2O emissions from such hotspots which are often ignored by process-based models.
Jukka Alm, Antti Wall, Jukka-Pekka Myllykangas, Paavo Ojanen, Juha Heikkinen, Helena M. Henttonen, Raija Laiho, Kari Minkkinen, Tarja Tuomainen, and Juha Mikola
Biogeosciences, 20, 3827–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In Finland peatlands cover one-third of land area. For half of those, with 4.3 Mha being drained for forestry, Finland reports sinks and sources of greenhouse gases in forest lands on organic soils following its UNFCCC commitment. We describe a new method for compiling soil CO2 balance that follows changes in tree volume, tree harvests and temperature. An increasing trend of emissions from 1.4 to 7.9 Mt CO2 was calculated for drained peatland forest soils in Finland for 1990–2021.
Siqi Li, Bo Zhu, Xunhua Zheng, Pengcheng Hu, Shenghui Han, Jihui Fan, Tao Wang, Rui Wang, Kai Wang, Zhisheng Yao, Chunyan Liu, Wei Zhang, and Yong Li
Biogeosciences, 20, 3555–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Physical soil erosion and particulate carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus loss modules were incorporated into the process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model CNMM-DNDC to realize the accurate simulation of water-induced erosion and subsequent particulate nutrient losses at high spatiotemporal resolution.
Ivan Cornut, Nicolas Delpierre, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, Otavio Campoe, Jose Luiz Stape, Vitoria Fernanda Santos, and Guerric le Maire
Biogeosciences, 20, 3093–3117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Potassium is an essential element for living organisms. Trees are dependent upon this element for certain functions that allow them to build their trunks using carbon dioxide. Using data from experiments in eucalypt plantations in Brazil and a simplified computer model of the plantations, we were able to investigate the effect that a lack of potassium can have on the production of wood. Understanding nutrient cycles is useful to understand the response of forests to environmental change.
Ivan Cornut, Guerric le Maire, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, and Nicolas Delpierre
Biogeosciences, 20, 3119–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
After simulating the effects of low levels of potassium on the canopy of trees and the uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by leaves in Part 1, here we tried to simulate the way the trees use the carbon they have acquired and the interaction with the potassium cycle in the tree. We show that the effect of low potassium on the efficiency of the trees in acquiring carbon is enough to explain why they produce less wood when they are in soils with low levels of potassium.
Xiaojuan Yang, Peter Thornton, Daniel Ricciuto, Yilong Wang, and Forrest Hoffman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2813–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the performance of a land surface model (ELMv1-CNP) that includes both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) limitation on carbon cycle processes. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. We show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation. Our study suggests that introduction of P limitation in land surface models is likely to have substantial consequences for projections of future carbon uptake.
Kevin R. Wilcox, Scott L. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, William Pockman, Zheng Shi, Melinda D. Smith, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 20, 2707–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The capacity for carbon storage (C capacity) is an attribute that determines how ecosystems store carbon in the future. Here, we employ novel data–model integration techniques to identify the carbon capacity of six grassland sites spanning the US Great Plains. Hot and dry sites had low C capacity due to less plant growth and high turnover of soil C, so they may be a C source in the future. Alternately, cooler and wetter ecosystems had high C capacity, so these systems may be a future C sink.
Ara Cho, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Richard Wehr, and Maarten C. Krol
Biogeosciences, 20, 2573–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is a useful constraint for estimating photosynthesis. To simulate COS leaf flux better in the SiB4 model, we propose a novel temperature function for enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity and optimize conductances using observations. The optimal activity of CA occurs below 40 °C, and Ball–Woodrow–Berry parameters are slightly changed. These reduce/increase uptakes in the tropics/higher latitudes and contribute to resolving discrepancies in the COS global budget.
Yunyao Ma, Bettina Weber, Alexandra Kratz, José Raggio, Claudia Colesie, Maik Veste, Maaike Y. Bader, and Philipp Porada
Biogeosciences, 20, 2553–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We found that the modelled annual carbon balance of biocrusts is strongly affected by both the environment (mostly air temperature and CO2 concentration) and physiology, such as temperature response of respiration. However, the relative impacts of these drivers vary across regions with different climates. Uncertainty in driving factors may lead to unrealistic carbon balance estimates, particularly in temperate climates, and may be explained by seasonal variation of physiology due to acclimation.
Alexander J. Norton, A. Anthony Bloom, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Paul A. Levine, Shuang Ma, Renato K. Braghiere, and T. Luke Smallman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2455–2484, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how the representation of leaf phenology affects our ability to predict changes to the carbon balance of land ecosystems. We calibrate a new leaf phenology model against a diverse range of observations at six forest sites, showing that it improves the predictive capability of the processes underlying the ecosystem carbon balance. We then show how changes in temperature and rainfall affect the ecosystem carbon balance with this new model.
Libo Wang, Vivek K. Arora, Paul Bartlett, Ed Chan, and Salvatore R. Curasi
Biogeosciences, 20, 2265–2282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plant functional types (PFTs) are groups of plant species used to represent vegetation distribution in land surface models. There are large uncertainties associated with existing methods for mapping land cover datasets to PFTs. This study demonstrates how fine-resolution tree cover fraction and land cover datasets can be used to inform the PFT mapping process and reduce the uncertainties. The proposed largely objective method makes it easier to implement new land cover products in models.
Veronika Kronnäs, Klas Lucander, Giuliana Zanchi, Nadja Stadlinger, Salim Belyazid, and Cecilia Akselsson
Biogeosciences, 20, 1879–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1879-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In a future climate, extreme droughts might become more common. Climate change and droughts can have negative effects on soil weathering and plant health.
In this study, climate change effects on weathering were studied on sites in Sweden using the model ForSAFE, a climate change scenario and an extreme drought scenario. The modelling shows that weathering is higher during summer and increases with global warming but that weathering during drought summers can become as low as winter weathering.
Agustín Sarquis and Carlos A. Sierra
Biogeosciences, 20, 1759–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Although plant litter is chemically and physically heterogenous and undergoes multiple transformations, models that represent litter dynamics often ignore this complexity. We used a multi-model inference framework to include information content in litter decomposition datasets and studied the time it takes for litter to decompose as measured by the transit time. In arid lands, the median transit time of litter is about 3 years and has a negative correlation with mean annual temperature.
Qi Guan, Jing Tang, Lian Feng, Stefan Olin, and Guy Schurgers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding terrestrial sources of nitrogen is vital to examine lake eutrophication changes. Combining process-based ecosystem modeling and satellite observations, we found that land-leached nitrogen in the Yangtze Plain significantly increased from 1979 to 2018, and terrestrial nutrient sources were positively correlated with eutrophication trends observed in most lakes, demonstrating the necessity of sustainable nitrogen management to control eutrophication.
Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The behaviour of natural systems is now very often represented through mathematical models. These models represent our understanding of how nature works. Of course, nature does not care about our understanding. Since our understanding is not perfect, evaluating models is challenging, and there are uncertainties. This paper illustrates this uncertainty for land models and argues that evaluating models in light of the uncertainty in various components provides useful information.
Kamal Nyaupane, Umakant Mishra, Feng Tao, Kyongmin Yeo, William J. Riley, Forrest M. Hoffman, and Sagar Gautam
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-50, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon climate feedbacks. We used machine learning to develop and compare predictive relationships in observations and ESMs. We found different relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks in observations and ESMs. SOC predictions in ESMs may be improved by representing the functional relationships of environmental controllers consistent with observations.
Benjamin S. Felzer
Biogeosciences, 20, 573–587, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The future of the terrestrial carbon sink depends upon the legacy of past land use, which determines the stand age of the forest and nutrient levels in the soil, both of which affect vegetation growth. This study uses a modeling approach to determine the effects of land-use legacy in the conterminous US from 1750 to 2099. Not accounting for land legacy results in a low carbon sink and high biomass, while water variables are not as highly affected.
Cited articles
Adams, H. D., Guardiola-Claramonte, M., Barron-Gafford, G. A., Villegas, J. C., Breshears, D. D., Zou, C. B., Troch, P. A., and Huxman, T. E.: Temperature sensitivity of
drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under
global-change-type drought, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 7063–7066, 2009.
Adams, H. D., Barron-Gafford, G. A., Minor, R. L., Gardea, A. A., Bentley, L. P., Law, D. J., Breshears, D. D., McDowell, N. G., and Huxman, T. E.: Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree
species with future drought, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 115014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa93be, 2017a.
Adams, H. D., Zeppel, M. J. B., Anderegg, W. R. L., et al.: A multi-species synthesis of
physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree mortality, Nature Ecol.
& Evol., 1, 1285–1291, 2017b.
Aguirre, B. A., Hsieh, B., Watson, S. J., and Wright, A. J.: The experimental
manipulation of atmospheric drought: Teasing out the role of microclimate in
biodiversity experiments, J. Ecol., 109, 1986–1999,
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13595, 2021.
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and
uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change
projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012.
Ainsworth, E. A. and Long, S. P.: What have we learned from 15 years of
free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of
photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2, New
Phytol., 165, 351–372, 2005.
Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., and McDowell, N. G.: On underestimation of
global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter
drought in the Anthropocene, Ecosphere, 6, 129, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1, 2015.
Allen, K., Dupuy, J. M., Gei, M. G., Hulshof, C. M., Medvigy, D., Pizano, C., Salgado-Negret, B., Smith, C. M., Trierweiler, A., Van Bloem, S. J., Waring, B. G., Xu, X., and Powers J. S.: Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to
future changes in rainfall regimes?, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 023001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5968,
2017.
Amiro, B. D., Barr, A. G., Barr, J. G., Black, T. A., Bracho, R., Brown, M., Chen, J., Clark, K. L., Davis, K. J., Desai, A. R., Dore, S., Engel, V., Fuentes, J. D., Goldstein A. H., Goulden M. L., Kolb, T. E., Lavigne, M. B., Law, B. E., Margolis, H. A., Martin, T., McCaughey, J. H., Misson, L., Montes-Helu, M., Noormets, A., Randerson, J. T., Starr, G., and Xiao, J.: Ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes after disturbance in forests of North
America, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 115, G00K02, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001390, 2010.
Anderegg, W. R. L. and Venturas, M. D.: Plant hydraulics play a critical role
in Earth system fluxes, New Phytol., 226,
1535–1538, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16548, 2020.
Anderegg, W. R. L., Hicke, J. A., Fisher, R. A., Allen, C. D., Aukema, J., Bentz, B., Hood, S., Lichstein, J. W., Macalady, A. K., McDowell, N., Pan, Y., Raffa, K., Sala, A., Shaw, J. D., Stephenson, N. L., Tague, C., and Zeppel, M.: Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a
changing climate, New Phytol., 208, 674–683, 2015.
Anderegg, W. R. L., Klein, T., Bartlett, M., Sack, L., Pellegrini, A. F. A., Choat, B., and Jansen, S.: Meta-analysis reveals that hydraulic traits explain
cross-species patterns of drought-induced tree mortality across the globe,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 5024–5029, 2016a.
Anderegg, W. R. L., Martinez-Vilalta, J., Cailleret, M., Camarero, J. J., Ewers, B. E., Galbraith, D., Gessler, A., Grote, R., Huang, C.-Y., Levick, S. R., Powell, T. L., Rowland, L., Sanchez-Salguero, R., and Trotsiuk, V.: When a Tree Dies in the Forest: Scaling
Climate-Driven Tree Mortality to Ecosystem Water and Carbon Fluxes,
Ecosystems, 19, 1133–1147, 2016b.
Anderegg, W. R. L., Konings, A. G., Trugman, A. T., Yu, K., Bowling, D. R., Gabbitas, R., Karp, D. S., Pacala, S., Sperry, J. S., Sulman, B. N., and Zenes, N.: Hydraulic diversity of forests regulates ecosystem
resilience during drought, Nature, 561, 538–541, 2018.
Arora, V. K., Katavouta, A., Williams, R. G., Jones, C. D., Brovkin, V., Friedlingstein, P., Schwinger, J., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Chamberlain, M. A., Christian, J. R., Delire, C., Fisher, R. A., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., Joetzjer, E., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C. D., Krasting, J. P., Law, R. M., Lawrence, D. M., Lenton, A., Lindsay, K., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra, J. F., Wiltshire, A., Wu, T., and Ziehn, T.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020.
Asner, G. P., Brodrick, P. G., Anderson, C. B., Vaughn, N., Knapp, D. E., and
Martin, R. E.: Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015
California drought, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, E249–E255, 2016.
Beier, C., Beierkuhnlein, C., Wohlgemuth, T., Penuelas, J., Emmett, B., Körner, C., de Boeck, H., Christensen, J. H., Leuzinger, S., Janssens, I. A., and Hansen, K.: Precipitation manipulation experiments – challenges
and recommendations for the future, Ecol. Lett., 15, 899–911, 2012.
Bennett, A. C., McDowell, N. G., Allen, C. D., and Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.:
Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide, Nat. Plants,
1, 15139, https://doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2015.139, 2015.
Biederman, J. A., Somor, A. J., Harpold, A. A., Gutmann, E. D., Breshears, D. D., Troch, P. A., Gochis, D. J., Scott, R. L., Meddens, A. J. H., and Brooks, P. D.: Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in
contrast to expected increases from historical studies, Water Resour.
Res., 51, 9775–9789, 2015.
Biederman, J. A., Meixner, T., Harpold, A. A., Reed, D. E., Gutmann, E. D., Gaun, J. A., and Brooks, P. D.: Riparian zones attenuate nitrogen loss following bark
beetle-induced lodgepole pine mortality, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo.,
121, 933–948, 2016.
Blyth, E. M., Arora, V. K., Clark, D. B., Dadson, S. J., De Kauwe, M. G., Lawrence, D. M., Melton, J. R., Pongratz, J., Turton, R. H., Yoshimura, K., and Yuan, H.: Advances in Land Surface
Modelling, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 7, 45–71,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-021-00171-5, 2021.
Bonan, G.: Vegetation Demography, in: Climate Change and Terrestrial
Ecosystem Modeling, 1st Edn., Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 344–364,
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107339217.020, 2019.
Bonan, G. B., Patton, E. G., Finnigan, J. J., Baldocchi, D. D., and Harman,
I. N.: Moving beyond the incorrect but useful paradigm: reevaluating
big-leaf and multilayer plant canopies to model biosphere-atmosphere fluxes
– a review, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 306,
108435, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108435, 2021.
Borchert, R., Rivera, G., and Hagnauer, W.: Modification of Vegetative
Phenology in a Tropical Semi-deciduous Forest by Abnormal Drought and Rain,
Biotropica, 34, 27–39, 2002.
Brando, P. M., Paolucci, L., Ummenhofer, C. C., Ordway, E. M., Hartmann, H.,
Cattau, M. E., Rattis, L., Medjibe, V., Coe, M. T., and Balch, J.: Droughts,
Wildfires, and Forest Carbon Cycling: A Pantropical Synthesis, Annu. Rev.
Earth Pl. Sc., 47, 555—581, 2019.
Breshears, D. D., Myers, O. B., Meyer, C. W., Barnes, F. J., Zou, C. B., Allen, C. D., McDowell, N. G., and Pockman, W. T.: Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought:
mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements,
Front. Ecol. Environ., 7, 185–189, 2009.
Brodribb, T. J., Bowman, D. J. M. S., Nichols, S., Delzon, S., and Burlett, R.:
Xylem function and growth rate interact to determine recovery rates after
exposure to extreme water deficit, New Phytol., 188, 533–542, 2010.
Bugmann, H. and Seidl, R.: The evolution, complexity and diversity of
models of long-term forest dynamics, J.
Ecol., 110, 2288–2307, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13989, 2022.
Carreño-Rocabado, G., Peña-Claros, M., Bongers, F., Alarcón, A.,
Licona, J.-C., and Poorter, L.: Effects of disturbance intensity on species
and functional diversity in a tropical forest, J. Ecol., 100, 1453–1463,
2012.
Chapman, T. B., Veblen, T. T., and Schoennagel, T.: Spatiotemporal patterns of
mountain pine beetle activity in the southern Rocky Mountains, Ecology, 93,
2175–2185, 2012.
Chiang, F., Mazdiyasni, O., and AghaKouchak, A.: Evidence of anthropogenic
impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity, Nat. Commun.,
12, 2754, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w, 2021.
Choat, B., Jansen, S., Brodribb, T. J., Cochard, H., Delzon, S., Bhaskar, R., Bucci, S. J., Feild, T. S., Gleason, S. M., Hacke, U. G., Jacobsen, A. L., Lens, F., Maherali, H., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Mayr, S., Mencuccini, M., Mitchell, P. J., Nardini, A., Pittermann, J., Pratt, R. B., Sperry, J. S., Westoby, M., Wright, I. J., and Zanne, A. E.: Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought,
Nature, 491, 752–755, 2012.
Choat, B., Brodribb, T. J., Brodersen, C. R., Duursma, R. A., López, R.,
and Medlyn, B. E.: Triggers of tree mortality under drought, Nature, 558,
531–539, 2018.
Christoffersen, B. O., Gloor, M., Fauset, S., Fyllas, N. M., Galbraith, D. R., Baker, T. R., Kruijt, B., Rowland, L., Fisher, R. A., Binks, O. J., Sevanto, S., Xu, C., Jansen, S., Choat, B., Mencuccini, M., McDowell, N. G., and Meir, P.: Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4227–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4227-2016, 2016.
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, Chr., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., De Noblet, N., Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T., and Valentini, R.: Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and
drought in 2003, Nature, 437, 529, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972, 2005.
Clark, K. L., Skowronski, N., and Hom, J.: Invasive insects impact forest
carbon dynamics, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 88–101, 2010.
Coley, P., Massa, M., Lovelock, C., and Winter, K.: Effects of elevated CO2 on
foliar chemistry of saplings of nine species of tropical tree, Oecologia, 133, 62–69, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-002-1005-6,
2002.
Creeden, E. P., Hicke, J. A., and Buotte, P. C.: Climate, weather, and recent
mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the western United States, Forest Ecol.
Manag., 312, 239–251, 2014.
da Costa, A. C. L., Galbraith, D., Almeida, S., Portela, B. T. T., da Costa, M., de Athaydes Silva Junior, J., Braga, A. P., de Gonçalves, P. H. L., de Oliveira, A. A., Fisher, R., Phillips, O. L., Metcalfe, D. B., Levy, P., and Meir, P.: Effect of 7 yr of experimental drought
on vegetation dynamics and biomass storage of an eastern Amazonian
rainforest, New Phytol., 187, 579–591, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03309.x, 2010.
D'Amato, A. W., Bradford, J. B., Fraver, S., and Palik, B. J.: Effects of
thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate
forest ecosystems, Eco. Appl., 23, 1735–1742, 2013.
De Kauwe, M. G., Medlyn, B. E., Zaehle, S., Walker, A. P., Dietze, M. C., Wang, Y., Luo, Y., Jain, A. K., El-Masri, B., Hickler, T., Wårlind, D., Weng, E., Parton, W. J., Thornton, P. E., Wang, S., Prentice, I. C., Asao, S., Smith, B., McCarthy, H. R., Iversen, C. M., Hanson, P. J., Warren, J. M., Oren, R., and Norby, R. J.: Where does the carbon go? A model-data intercomparison of
vegetation carbon allocation and turnover processes at two temperate forest
free-air CO2 enrichment sites, New Phytol., 203, 883–899, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12847, 2014.
Dietze, M. C. and Matthes, J. H.: A general ecophysiological framework for
modelling the impact of pests and pathogens on forest ecosystems, Ecol.
Lett., 17, 1418–1426, 2014.
Döscher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arsouze, T., Bergman, T., Bernardello, R., Boussetta, S., Caron, L.-P., Carver, G., Castrillo, M., Catalano, F., Cvijanovic, I., Davini, P., Dekker, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Docquier, D., Echevarria, P., Fladrich, U., Fuentes-Franco, R., Gröger, M., v. Hardenberg, J., Hieronymus, J., Karami, M. P., Keskinen, J.-P., Koenigk, T., Makkonen, R., Massonnet, F., Ménégoz, M., Miller, P. A., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Nieradzik, L., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., O'Donnell, D., Ollinaho, P., van den Oord, G., Ortega, P., Prims, O. T., Ramos, A., Reerink, T., Rousset, C., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Schmith, T., Schrödner, R., Serva, F., Sicardi, V., Sloth Madsen, M., Smith, B., Tian, T., Tourigny, E., Uotila, P., Vancoppenolle, M., Wang, S., Wårlind, D., Willén, U., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yepes-Arbós, X., and Zhang, Q.: The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022.
Dreesen, F. E., De Boeck, H. J., Janssens, I. A., and Nijs, I.: Do successive climate extremes weaken the resistance of plant communities? An experimental study using plant assemblages, Biogeosciences, 11, 109–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-109-2014, 2014.
Eamus, D., Boulain, N., Cleverly, J., and Breshears, D. D.: Global
change-type drought-induced tree mortality: vapor pressure deficit is more
important than temperature per se in causing decline in tree health, Ecol.
Evol., 3, 2711–2729, 2013.
Eller, C. B., Rowland, L., Mencuccini, M., Rosas, T., Williams, K., Harper, A., Medlyn, B. E., Wagner, Y., Klein, T., Teodoro, G. S., Oliveira, R. S., Matos, I. S., Rosado, B. H. P., Fuchs, K., Wohlfahrt, G., Montagnani, L., Meir, P., Sitch, S., and Cox, P. M.: Stomatal optimization based on xylem hydraulics (SOX) improves
land surface model simulation of vegetation responses to climate, New
Phytol., 226, 1622–1637, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16419, 2020.
Ellsworth, D. S., Anderson, I. C., Crous, K. Y., Cooke, J., Drake, J. E., Gherlenda, A. N., Gimeno, T. E., Macdonald, C. A., Medlyn, B. E., Powell, J. R., Tjoelker, M. G., and Reich, P. B.: Elevated CO2 does not increase
eucalypt forest productivity on a low-phosphorus soil, Nat. Clim.
Change, 7, 279–282, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3235, 2017.
Enquist, B. J. and Enquist, C. A. F.: Long-term change within a Neotropical
forest: assessing differential functional and floristic responses to
disturbance and drought, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 1408–1424, 2011.
Esquivel-Muelbert, A., Baker, T. R., Dexter, K. G., et al.: Compositional response of Amazon forests to
climate change, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 39–56, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14413, 2019.
Eziz, A., Yan, Z., Tian, D., Han, W., Tang, Z., and Fang, J.: Drought effect
on plant biomass allocation: A meta-analysis, Ecol. Evol, 7, 11002–11010,
2017.
Fang, Y., Leung, L. R., Knox, R., Koven, C., and Bond-Lamberty, B.: Impact of the numerical solution approach of a plant hydrodynamic model (v0.1) on vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6385–6398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, 2022.
Feldpausch, T. R., Phillips, O. L., Brienen, R. J. W., Gloor, E., Lloyd, J., Lopez-Gonzalez, G., Monteagudo-Mendoza, A., Malhi, Y., Alarcón, A., Álvarez Dávila, E., Alvarez-Loayza, P., Andrade, A., Aragao, L. E. O. C., Arroyo, L., Aymard C., G. A., Baker, T. R., Baraloto, C., Barroso, J., Bonal, D., Castro, W., Chama, V., Chave, J., Domingues, T. F., Fauset, S., Groot, N., Honorio Coronado, E., Laurance, S., Laurance, W. F., Lewis, S. L., Licona, J. C., Marimon, B. S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Mendoza Bautista, C., Neill, D. A., Oliveira, E. A., Oliveira dos Santos, C., Pallqui Camacho, N. C., Pardo-Molina, G., Prieto, A., Quesada, C. A., Ramírez, F., Ramírez-Angulo, H., Réjou-Méchain, M., Rudas, A., Saiz, G., Salomão, R. P., Silva-Espejo, J. E., Silveira, M., ter Steege, H., Stropp, J., Terborgh, J., Thomas-Caesar, R., van der Heijden, G. M. F., Vásquez Martinez, R., Vilanova, E., and Vos, V. A.: Amazon forest response to repeated droughts,
Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 964–982, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005133, 2016.
Fisher, R. A. and Koven, C. D.: Perspectives on the future of land surface
models and the challenges of representing complex terrestrial systems,
JAMES, 12, e2018MS001453, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001453, 2020.
Fisher, R. A., Muszala, S., Verteinstein, M., Lawrence, P., Xu, C., McDowell, N. G., Knox, R. G., Koven, C., Holm, J., Rogers, B. M., Spessa, A., Lawrence, D., and Bonan, G.: Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes, CLM4.5(ED), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3593–3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3593-2015, 2015.
Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Anderegg, W. R. L., Christoffersen, B. O., Dietze, M. C., Farrior, C. E., Holm, J. A., Hurtt, G. C., Knox, R. G., Lawrence, P. J., Lichstein, J. W., Longo, M., Matheny, A. M., Medvigy, D., Muller-Landau, H. C., Powell, T. L., Serbin, S. P., Sato, H., Shuman, J. K., Smith, B., Trugman, A. T., Viskari, T., Verbeeck, H., Weng, E., Xu, C., Xu, X., Zhang, T., and Moorcroft, P. R.: Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 35–54, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13910, 2018.
Fleischer, K., Rammig, A., De Kauwe, M. G., Walker, A. P., Domingues, T. F., Fuchslueger, L., Garcia, S., Goll, D. S., Grandis, A., Jiang, M., Haverd, V., Hofhansl, F., Holm, J. A., Kruijt, B., Leung, F., Medlyn, B. E., Mercado, L. M., Norby, R. J., Pak, B., von Randow, C., Quesada, C. A., Schaap, K. J., Valverde-Barrantes, O. J., Wang, Y.-P., Yang, X., Zaehle, S., Zhu, Q., and Lapola, D. M.: Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization
dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition, Nat. Geosci., 12, 736–741,
2019.
Frank, D., Reichstein, M., Bahn, M., Thonicke, K., Frank, D., Mahecha, M. D., Smith, P., Velde, M., Vicca, S., Babst, F., Beer, C., Buchmann, N., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., Ibrom, A., Miglietta, F., Poulter, B., Rammig, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Walz, A., Wattenbach, M., Zavala, M. A., and Zscheischler, J.: Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle:
concepts, processes and potential future impacts, Glob. Change Biol., 21,
2861–2880, 2015.
Franklin, O., McMurtrie, R. E., Iversen, C. M., Crous, K. Y., Finzi, A. C.,
Tissue, D. T., Ellsworth, D. S., Oren, R., and Norby, R. J.: Forest fine-root
production and nitrogen use under elevated CO2: contrasting responses
in evergreen and deciduous trees explained by a common principle, Glob.
Change Biol., 15, 132–144, 2009.
Franklin, O., Johansson, J., Dewar, R. C., Dieckmann, U., McMurtrie, R. E.,
Brännström, Å., and Dybzinski, R.: Modeling carbon allocation in
trees: a search for principles, Tree Physiol., 32, 648–666, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpr138, 2012.
Franklin, O., Harrison, S. P., Dewar, R., Farrior, C. E., Brännström, Å., Dieckmann, U., Pietsch, S., Falster, D., Cramer, W., Loreau, M., Wang, H., Mäkelä, A., Rebel, K. T., Meron, E., Schymanski, S. J., Rovenskaya, E., Stocker, B. D., Zaehle, S., Manzoni, S., van Oijen, M., Wright, I. J., Ciais, P., van Bodegom, P. M., Peñuelas, J., Hofhansl, F., Terrer, C., Soudzilovskaia, N. A., Midgley, G., and Prentice, I. C.: Organizing principles for
vegetation dynamics, Nat. Plants, 6, 444–453,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-020-0655-x, 2020.
Friend, A. D., Lucht, W., Rademacher, T. T., Keribin, R., Betts, R., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Dankers, R., Falloon, P. D., Ito, A., Kahana, R., Kleidon, A., Lomas, M. R., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Peylin, P., Schaphoff, S., Vuichard, N., Warszawski, L., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, F. I.: Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial
vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111,
3280–3285, 2014.
Gerten, D., Luo, Y., Le Maire, G., Parton, W. J., Keough, C., Weng, E., Beier, C., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., Dukes, J. S., Hanson, P. J., Knapp, A. A. K., Linder, S., Nepstad, D., Rustad, L., and Sowerby, A.: Modelled effects of precipitation on ecosystem carbon and water
dynamics in different climatic zones, Glob. Change Biol., 14, 2365–2379,
2008.
Goulden, M. L. and Bales, R. C.: California forest die-off linked to
multi-year deep soil drying in 2012–2015 drought, Nat. Geosci., 12,
632–637, 2019.
Gray, S. B., Dermody, O., Klein, S. P., Locke, A. M., McGrath, J. M., Paul, R. E., Rosenthal, D. M., Ruiz-Vera, U. M., Siebers, M. H., Strellner, R., Ainsworth, E. A., Bernacchi, C. J., Long, S. P., Ort, D. R., and Leakey, A. D. B.: Intensifying drought eliminates the expected benefits of elevated
carbon dioxide for soybean, Nat. Plants, 2, 16132, https://doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2016.132, 2016.
Greenwood, S., Ruiz-Benito, P., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Lloret, F., Kitzberger, T., Allen, C. D., Fensham, R., Laughlin, D. C., Kattge, J., Bönisch, G., Kraft, N. J. B., and Jump, A. S.: Tree mortality across biomes is promoted
by drought intensity, lower wood density and higher specific leaf area,
Ecol. Lett., 20, 539–553, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12748, 2017.
Griffin, D. and Anchukaitis, K. J.: How unusual is the 2012–2014 California
drought?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 9017–9023, 2014.
Hanbury-Brown, A. R., Powell, T. L., Muller-Landau, H. C., Wright, S. J., and
Kueppers, L. M.: Simulating environmentally-sensitive tree recruitment in
vegetation demographic models, New Phytol., 235,
78–93, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.18059, 2022.
Harrison, S. P., Cramer, W., Franklin, O., Prentice, I. C., Wang, H., Brännström, Å., Boer, H., Dieckmann, U., Joshi, J., Keenan, T. F., Lavergne, A., Manzoni, S., Mengoli, G., Morfopoulos, C., Peñuelas, J., Pietsch, S., Rebel, K. T., Ryu, Y., Smith, N. G., Stocker, B. D., and Wright, I. J.: Eco-evolutionary optimality as a means
to improve vegetation and land-surface models, New Phytol., 231,
2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17558, 2021.
Hickler, T., Smith, B., Sykes, M. T., Davis, M. B., Sugita, S., and Walker,
K.: USING A GENERALIZED VEGETATION MODEL TO SIMULATE VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN
NORTHEASTERN USA, Ecology, 85, 519–530, 2004.
Holm, J. A., Knox, R. G., Zhu, Q., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Nogueira Lima, A. J., Riley, W. J., Longo, M., Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Araujo, A. C., Kueppers, L. M., Moorcroft, P. R., Higuchi, N., and Chambers, J. Q.: The central Amazon biomass sink under current and
future atmospheric CO2: Predictions from big-leaf and demographic
vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 125, e2019JG005500.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005500, 2020.
Hovenden, M. J., Newton, P. C. D., and Wills, K. E.: Seasonal not annual
rainfall determines grassland biomass response to carbon dioxide, Nature,
511, 583–586, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13281, 2014.
Hubbard, R. M., Rhoades, C. C., Elder, K., and Negron, J.: Changes in
transpiration and foliage growth in lodgepole pine trees following mountain
pine beetle attack and mechanical girdling, Forest Ecol. Manag., 289,
312–317, 2013.
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V.,
Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J.,
Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New
York, NY, USA, 582 pp., 2012.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A.,
Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I.,
Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K.,
Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Jiang, M., Medlyn, B. E., Drake, J. E., Duursma, R. A., Anderson, I. C., Barton, C. V. M., Boer, M. M., Carrillo, Y., Castañeda-Gómez, L., Collins, L., Crous, K. Y., De Kauwe, M. G., dos Santos, B. M., Emmerson, K. M., Facey, S. L., Gherlenda, A. N., Gimeno, T. E., Hasegawa, S., Johnson, S. N., Kännaste, A., Macdonald, C. A., Mahmud, K., Moore, B. D., Nazaries, L., Neilson, E. H. J., Nielsen, U. N., Niinemets, Ü., Noh, N. J., Ochoa-Hueso, R., Pathare, V. S., Pendall, E., Pihlblad, J., Piñeiro, J., Powell, J. R., Power, S. A., Reich, P. B., Renchon, A. A., Riegler, M., Rinnan, R., Rymer, P. D., Salomón, R. L., Singh, B. K., Smith, B., Tjoelker, M. G., Walker, J. K. M., Wujeska-Klause, A., Yang, J., Zaehle, S., and Ellsworth, D. S.: The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide
enrichment, Nature, 580, 227–231, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2128-9,
2020.
Joslin, J. D., Wolfe, M.H., and Hanson, P. J.: Effects of altered water
regimes on forest root systems, New Phytol., 147, 117–129, 2000.
Jump, A. S., Ruiz‐Benito, P., Greenwood, S., Allen, C. D., Kitzberger, T., Fensham, R., Martínez‐Vilalta, J., and Lloret, F.: Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate
variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback, Glob.
Change Biol., 23, 3742–3757, 2017.
Kannenberg, S. A., Schwalm, C. R., and Anderegg, W. R. L.: Ghosts of the past:
how drought legacy effects shape forest functioning and carbon cycling,
Ecol. Lett., 23, 891–901, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13485, 2020.
Kattge, J., Díaz, S., Lavorel, S., et al.: TRY – a global database of plant traits, Glob.
Change Biol., 17, 2905–2935, 2011.
Kayler, Z. E., De Boeck, H. J., Fatichi, S., Grünzweig, J. M., Merbold, L., Beier, C., McDowell, N., and Dukes, J. S.: Experiments to confront the environmental extremes of
climate change, Front. Ecol. Environ., 13, 219–225, 2015.
Keenan, T. F., Hollinger, D. Y., Bohrer, G., Dragoni, D., Munger, J. W., Schmid, H. P., and Richardson, A. D.: Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations rise, Nature, 499, 324–327, 2013.
Kennedy, D., Swenson, S., Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R., Lola
da Costa, A. C., and Gentine, P.: Implementing plant hydraulics in the
Community Land Model, version 5, JAMES, 11, 485–513,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001500, 2019.
Koven, C. D., Knox, R. G., Fisher, R. A., Chambers, J. Q., Christoffersen, B. O., Davies, S. J., Detto, M., Dietze, M. C., Faybishenko, B., Holm, J., Huang, M., Kovenock, M., Kueppers, L. M., Lemieux, G., Massoud, E., McDowell, N. G., Muller-Landau, H. C., Needham, J. F., Norby, R. J., Powell, T., Rogers, A., Serbin, S. P., Shuman, J. K., Swann, A. L. S., Varadharajan, C., Walker, A. P., Wright, S. J., and Xu, C.: Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama, Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020.
Li, L., Yang, Z., Matheny, A. M., Zheng, H., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, D. M., Barlage, M., Yan, B., McDowell, N. G., and Leung, L. R.: Representation of plant hydraulics in the Noah-MP land surface
model: Model development and multiscale evaluation, JAMES, 13,
e2020MS002214, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002214, 2021.
Li, Q., Lu, X., Wang, Y., Huang, X., Cox, P. M., and Luo, Y.: Leaf area index identified as a major source of variability in modeled CO2 fertilization, Biogeosciences, 15, 6909–6925, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, 2018.
Liu, Y., Parolari, A. J., Kumar, M., Huang, C.-W., Katul, G. G., and
Porporato, A.: Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO2 concentration
alleviate forest mortality risk, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 9918–9923, 2017.
Lloret, F., Escudero, A., Iriondo, J. M., Martínez-Vilalta, J., and
Valladares, F.: Extreme climatic events and vegetation: the role of
stabilizing processes, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 797–805, 2012.
Luo, Y., Gerten, D., Le Maire, G., Parton, W. J., Weng, E., Zhou, X., Keough, C., Beier, C., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., Dukes, J. S., Emmett, B., Hanson, P. J., Knapp, A., Linder, S., Nepstad, D., and Rustad, L.:
Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on
ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones, Glob.
Change Biol., 14, 1986–1999, 2008.
Luo, Y., Jiang, L., Niu, S., and Zhou, X.: Nonlinear responses of land
ecosystems to variation in precipitation, New Phytol., 214, 5–7, 2017.
Luo, Y. Q., Randerson, J. T., Abramowitz, G., Bacour, C., Blyth, E., Carvalhais, N., Ciais, P., Dalmonech, D., Fisher, J. B., Fisher, R., Friedlingstein, P., Hibbard, K., Hoffman, F., Huntzinger, D., Jones, C. D., Koven, C., Lawrence, D., Li, D. J., Mahecha, M., Niu, S. L., Norby, R., Piao, S. L., Qi, X., Peylin, P., Prentice, I. C., Riley, W., Reichstein, M., Schwalm, C., Wang, Y. P., Xia, J. Y., Zaehle, S., and Zhou, X. H.: A framework for benchmarking land models, Biogeosciences, 9, 3857–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3857-2012, 2012.
Ma, W., Zhai, L., Pivovaroff, A., Shuman, J., Buotte, P., Ding, J., Christoffersen, B., Knox, R., Moritz, M., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Kueppers, L., and Xu, C.: Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 18, 4005–4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021, 2021.
MacGillivray, C. W. and Grime, J. P.:
Testing Predictions of the Resistance and Resilience of Vegetation Subjected
to Extreme Events, Funct. Ecol., 9, 640–649, 1995.
Markewitz, D., Devine, S., Davidson, E. A., Brando, P., and Nepstad, D. C.:
Soil moisture depletion under simulated drought in the Amazon: impacts on
deep root uptake, New Phytol., 187, 592–607, 2010.
Matusick, G., Ruthrof, K. X., Brouwers, N. C., Dell, B., and Hardy, G. S. J.:
Sudden forest canopy collapse corresponding with extreme drought and heat in
a mediterranean-type eucalypt forest in southwestern Australia, Eur. J.
For. Res., 132, 497–510, 2013.
Matusick, G., Ruthrof, K. X., Fontaine, J. B., and Hardy, G. E. S. J.: Eucalyptus
forest shows low structural resistance and resilience to climate change-type
drought, J. Veg. Sci., 27, 493–503, 2016.
McCarthy, M. C. and Enquist, B. J.: Consistency between an allometric
approach and optimal partitioning theory in global patterns of plant biomass
allocation, Funct. Ecol., 21, 713–720, 2007.
McDowell, N., Pockman, W. T., Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N., Kolb, T., Plaut, J., Sperry, J., West, A., Williams, D. G., and Yepez, E. A.: Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do
some plants survive while others succumb to drought?, New Phytol., 178,
719–739, 2008.
McDowell, N. G., Adams, H. D., Bailey, J. D., Hess, M., and Kolb, T. E.:
Homeostatic Maintenance Of Ponderosa Pine Gas Exchange In Response To Stand
Density Changes, Ecol. Appl., 16, 1164–1182, 2006.
McDowell, N. G. and Allen, C. D.: Darcy's law predicts widespread forest
mortality under climate warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 669–672, 2015.
McDowell, N. G., Beerling, D. J., Breshears, D. D., Fisher, R. A., Raffa, K. F.,
and Stitt, M.: The interdependence of mechanisms underlying climate-driven
vegetation mortality, Trends Ecol. Evol., 26, 523–532, 2011.
McDowell, N. G., Fisher, R. A., Xu, C., Domec, J. C., Hölttä, T., Mackay, D. S., Sperry, J. S., Boutz, A., Dickman, L., Gehres, N., Limousin, J. M., Macalady, A., Martínez‐Vilalta, J., Mencuccini, M., Plaut, J. A., Ogée, J., Pangle, R. E., Rasse, D. P., Ryan, M. G., Sevanto, S., Waring, R. H., Williams, A. P., Yepez, E. A., and Pockman, W. T.: Evaluating theories of drought-induced vegetation
mortality using a multimodel–experiment framework, New Phytol., 200,
304–321, 2013.
Medlyn, B. E., De Kauwe, M. G., Zaehle, S., Walker, A. P., Duursma, R. A., Luus,
K., Mishurov, M., Pak, B., Smith, B., Wang, Y.-P., Yang, X., Crous, K. Y.,
Drake, J. E., Gimeno, T. E., Macdonald, C. A., Norby, R. J., Power, S. A.,
Tjoelker, M. G., and Ellsworth, D. S.: Using models to guide field experiments:
a priori predictions for the CO2 response of a nutrient- and water-limited
native Eucalypt woodland, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 2834–2851, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13268, 2016.
Medvigy, D. and Moorcroft, P. R.: Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional
scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of
northeastern North America, Philos. T. Roy. Soc.
B, 367, 222–235, 2012.
Medvigy, D., Wofsy, S., Munger, J., Hollinger, D., and Moorcroft, P.:
Mechanistic scaling of ecosystem function and dynamics in space and time:
Ecosystem Demography model version 2, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 114, 2008JG000812, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JG000812,
2009.
Medvigy, D., Clark, K. L., Skowronski, N. S., and Schäfer, K. V. R.:
Simulated impacts of insect defoliation on forest carbon dynamics, Environ.
Res. Lett., 7, 045703, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045703, 2012.
Medvigy, D., Wang, G., Zhu, Q., Riley, W. J., Trierweiler, A. M., Waring, B.,
Xu, X., and Powers, J. S.: Observed variation in soil properties can drive
large variation in modelled forest functioning and composition during
tropical forest secondary succession, New Phytol., 223,
1820–1833, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15848, 2019.
Mencuccini, M., Manzoni, S., and Christoffersen, B.: Modelling water fluxes
in plants: from tissues to biosphere, New Phytol., 222,
1207–1222, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15681, 2019.
Meir, P., Wood, T. E., Galbraith, D. R., Brando, P. M., Da Costa, A. C. L., Rowland, L., and Ferreira, L. V.: Threshold Responses to Soil Moisture Deficit by Trees
and Soil in Tropical Rain Forests: Insights from Field Experiments,
BioScience, 65, 882–892, 2015.
Montané, F., Fox, A. M., Arellano, A. F., MacBean, N., Alexander, M. R., Dye, A., Bishop, D. A., Trouet, V., Babst, F., Hessl, A. E., Pederson, N., Blanken, P. D., Bohrer, G., Gough, C. M., Litvak, M. E., Novick, K. A., Phillips, R. P., Wood, J. D., and Moore, D. J. P.: Evaluating the effect of alternative carbon allocation schemes in a land surface model (CLM4.5) on carbon fluxes, pools, and turnover in temperate forests, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3499–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3499-2017, 2017.
Myers, J. A. and Kitajima, K.: Carbohydrate storage enhances seedling shade
and stress tolerance in a neotropical forest, J. Ecol., 95, 383–395, 2007.
Niklas, K. J.: The scaling of plant height: A comparison among major plant
clades and anatomical grades, Ann. Bot., 72, 165–172,
https://doi.org/10.1006/anbo.1993.1095, 1993.
Norby, R. J., DeLucia, E. H., Gielen, B., Calfapietra, C., Giardina, C. P., King, J. S., Ledford, J., McCarthy, H. R., Moore, D. J. P., Ceulemans, R., De Angelis, P., Finzi, A. C., Karnosky, D. F., Kubiske, M. E., Lukac, M., Pregitzer, K. S., Scarascia-Mugnozza, G. E., Schlesinger, W. H., and Oren, R.: Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a
broad range of productivity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 18052–18056, 2005.
Obermeier, W. A., Lehnert, L. W., Kammann, C. I., Müller, C., Grünhage, L., Luterbacher, J., Erbs, M., Moser, G., Seibert, R., Yuan, N., and Bendix, J.: Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3
grasslands under more extreme weather conditions, Nat. Clim. Change, 7,
137–141, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3191, 2016.
O'Brien, M. J., Leuzinger, S., Philipson, C. D., Tay, J., and Hector, A.:
Drought survival of tropical tree seedlings enhanced by non-structural
carbohydrate levels, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 710–714, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2281, 2014.
Palace, M., Keller, M., and Silva, H.: NECROMASS PRODUCTION: STUDIES IN
UNDISTURBED AND LOGGED AMAZON FORESTS, Ecol. Appl., 18, 873–884,
2008.
Petit, G., Anfodillo, T., and Mencuccini, M.: Tapering of xylem conduits and
hydraulic limitations in sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus) trees, New Phytol., 177,
653–664, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2007.02291.x, 2008.
Pilon, C. E., Côté, B., and Fyles, J. W.: Effect of an artificially
induced drought on leaf peroxidase activity, mineral nutrition and growth of
sugar maple, Plant Soil, 179, 151–158, 1996.
Potter, C., Klooster, S., Hiatt, C., Genovese, V., and Castilla-Rubio, J. C.:
Changes in the carbon cycle of Amazon ecosystems during the 2010 drought,
Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034024, 2011.
Powell, T. L., Galbraith, D. R., Christoffersen, B. O., Harper, A., Imbuzeiro, H. M. A., Rowland, L., Almeida, S., Brando, P. M., Costa, A. C. L., Costa, M. H., Levine, N. M., Malhi, Y., Saleska, S. R., Sotta, E., Williams, M., Meir, P., and Moorcroft, P. R.: Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes
with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought, New
Phytol., 200, 350–365, 2013.
Powell, T. L., Koven, C. D., Johnson, D. J., Faybishenko, B., Fisher, R. A., Knox, R. G., McDowell, N. G., Condit, R., Hubbell, S. P., Wright, S. J., Chambers, J. Q., and Kueppers, L. M.: Variation in hydroclimate sustains tropical forest
biomass and promotes functional diversity, New Phytol., 219, 932–946, 2018.
Powers, J. S., Becknell, J. M., Irving, J., and Pèrez-Aviles, D.:
Diversity and structure of regenerating tropical dry forests in Costa Rica:
Geographic patterns and environmental drivers, Forest Ecol. Manag., 258,
959–970, 2009.
Powers, J. S., Vargas G., G., Brodribb, T. J., Schwartz, N. B., Pérez‐Aviles, D., Smith‐Martin, C. M., Becknell, J. M., Aureli, F., Blanco, R., Calderón‐Morales, E., Calvo‐Alvarado, J. C., Calvo‐Obando, A. J., Chavarría, M. M., Carvajal‐Vanegas, D., Jiménez‐Rodríguez, C. D., Murillo Chacon, E., Schaffner, C. M., Werden, L. K., Xu, X., and Medvigy, D.: A catastrophic tropical
drought kills hydraulically vulnerable tree species, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 3122–3133, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15037, 2020.
Pugh, T. A. M., Rademacher, T., Shafer, S. L., Steinkamp, J., Barichivich, J., Beckage, B., Haverd, V., Harper, A., Heinke, J., Nishina, K., Rammig, A., Sato, H., Arneth, A., Hantson, S., Hickler, T., Kautz, M., Quesada, B., Smith, B., and Thonicke, K.: Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover, Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020.
Rapparini, F. and Peñuelas, J.: Mycorrhizal Fungi to Alleviate Drought
Stress on Plant Growth, in: Use of Microbes for the Alleviation of Soil
Stresses, Vol. 1, edited by: Miransari, M., Springer New York, NY, 21–42, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-9466-9_2, 2014.
Reich, P. B., Wright, I. J., and Lusk, C. H.: PREDICTING LEAF PHYSIOLOGY FROM
SIMPLE PLANT AND CLIMATE ATTRIBUTES: A GLOBAL GLOPNET ANALYSIS, Ecol.
Appl., 17, 1982–1988, 2007.
Reich, P. B., Hobbie, S. E., and Lee, T. D.: Plant growth enhancement by
elevated CO2 eliminated by joint water and nitrogen limitation, Nat.
Geosci., 7, 920–924, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2284, 2014.
Reichstein, M., Bahn, M., Ciais, P., Frank, D., Mahecha, M. D., Seneviratne, S. I., Zscheischler, J., Beer, C., Buchmann, N., Frank, D. C., Papale, D., Rammig, A., Smith, P., Thonicke, K., Van Der Velde, M., Vicca, S., Walz, A., and Wattenbach, M.: Climate extremes and the carbon cycle, Nature, 500, 287–295,
2013.
Reyes, J. J., Tague, C. L., Evans, R. D., and Adam, J. C.: Assessing the Impact
of Parameter Uncertainty on Modeling Grass Biomass Using a Hybrid Carbon
Allocation Strategy, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 9, 2968–2992, 2017.
Richardson, A. D., Carbone, M. S., Keenan, T. F., Czimczik, C. I., Hollinger, D. Y., Murakami, P., Schaberg, P. G., and Xu, X.: Seasonal dynamics and age of stemwood
nonstructural carbohydrates in temperate forest trees, New Phytol., 197,
850–861, 2013.
Rowland, L., Da Costa, A. C. L., Galbraith, D. R., Oliveira, R. S., Binks, O. J., Oliveira, A. A. R., Pullen, A. M., Doughty, C. E., Metcalfe, D. B., Vasconcelos, S. S., Ferreira, L. V., Malhi, Y., Grace, J., Mencuccini, M., and Meir, P.: Death from drought in tropical forests is triggered
by hydraulics not carbon starvation, Nature, 528, 119–122, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15539, 2015.
Roy, J., Picon-Cochard, C., Augusti, A., Benot, M.-L., Thiery, L., Darsonville, O., Landais, D., Piel, C., Defossez, M., Devidal, S., Escape, C., Ravel, O., Fromin, N., Volaire, F., Milcu, A., Bahn, M., and Soussana, J.-F.: Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake
under a future heat and drought extreme, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 6224–6229, 2016.
Ruppert, J. C., Harmoney, K., Henkin, Z., Snyman, H. A., Sternberg, M., Willms, W., and Linstädter, A.: Quantifying drylands' drought resistance and recovery:
the importance of drought intensity, dominant life history and grazing
regime, Glob. Change Biol., 21, 1258–1270, 2015.
Rustad, L. E.: The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate
change: Towards an integrated approach, Sci. Total Environ., 404,
222–235, 2008.
Ruthrof, K. X., Breshears, D. D., Fontaine, J. B., Froend, R. H., Matusick, G., Kala, J., Miller, B. P., Mitchell, P. J., Wilson, S. K., Van Keulen, M., Enright, N. J., Law, D. J., Wernberg, T., and Hardy, G. E. St. J.: Subcontinental heat wave triggers terrestrial and marine,
multi-taxa responses, Sci. Rep., 8, 13094, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31236-5, 2018.
Scheiter, S., Langan, L., and Higgins, S. I.: Next-generation dynamic global
vegetation models: learning from community ecology, New Phytol., 198,
957–969, 2013.
Schenk, H. J. and Jackson, R. B.: Mapping the global distribution of deep
roots in relation to climate and soil characteristics, Geoderma, 126,
129–140, 2005.
Schwalm, C. R., Anderegg, W. R. L., Michalak, A. M., Fisher, J. B., Biondi, F., Koch, G., Litvak, M., Ogle, K., Shaw, J. D., Wolf, A., Huntzinger, D. N., Schaefer, K., Cook, R., Wei, Y., Fang, Y., Hayes, D., Huang, M., Jain, A., and Tian, H.: Global patterns of drought recovery, Nature, 548, 202–205, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23021,
2017.
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Ghosh,
S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano,
S. M., Wehner, M., and Zhou, B.: Weather and Climate
Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, in Climate Change 2021: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte,
V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N.,
Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E.,
Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA, 1513–1766, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2021.
Sheffield, J., Goteti, G., and Wood, E. F.: Development of a 50-Year
High-Resolution Global Dataset of Meteorological Forcings for Land Surface
Modeling, J. Climate, 19, 3088–3111, 2006.
Shiels, A. B., Zimmerman, J. K., García-Montiel, D. C., Jonckheere, I., Holm, J., Horton, D., and Brokaw, N.: Plant responses to simulated hurricane impacts
in a subtropical wet forest, Puerto Rico, J. Ecol., 98, 659–673, 2010.
Signori-Müller, C., Oliveira, R. S., Barros, F. D. V., Tavares, J. V.,
Gilpin, M., Diniz, F. C., Zevallos, M. J. M., Yupayccana, C. A. S., Acosta,
M., Bacca, J., Chino, R. S. C., Cuellar, G. M. A., Cumapa, E. R. M.,
Martinez, F., Mullisaca, F. M. P., Nina, A., Sanchez, J. M. B., Da Silva, L.
F., Tello, L., Tintaya, J. S., Ugarteche, M. T. M., Baker, T. R.,
Bittencourt, P. R. L., Borma, L. S., Brum, M., Castro, W., Coronado, E. N.
H., Cosio, E. G., Feldpausch, T. R., Fonseca, L. d'Agosto M., Gloor, E.,
Llampazo, G. F., Malhi, Y., Mendoza, A. M., Moscoso, V. C., Araujo-Murakami,
A., Phillips, O. L., Salinas, N., Silveira, M., Talbot, J., Vasquez, R.,
Mencuccini, M., and Galbraith, D.: Non-structural carbohydrates mediate
seasonal water stress across Amazon forests, Nat. Commun., 12, 2310,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22378-8, 2021.
Silva, M., Matheny, A. M., Pauwels, V. R. N., Triadis, D., Missik, J. E., Bohrer, G., and Daly, E.: Tree hydrodynamic modelling of the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum using FETCH3, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2619–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2619-2022, 2022.
Sippel, S., Zscheischler, J., and Reichstein, M.: Ecosystem impacts of
climate extremes crucially depend on the timing, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 5768–5770, 2016.
Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Gedney, N., Levy, P. E., Lomas, M., Piao, S. L., Betts, R., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C. D., Prentice, I. C., and Woodward, F. I.: Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and
climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
(DGVMs), Glob. Change Biol., 14, 2015–2039, 2008.
Skelton, R. P., West, A. G., and Dawson, T. E.: Predicting plant vulnerability
to drought in biodiverse regions using functional traits, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112,
5744–5749, 2015.
Smith, B. and Mishurov, M.: LPJ-GUESS Ecosystem Model [code],
https://web.nateko.lu.se/lpj-guess/download.html, last access: 7 May 2023.
Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., and Sykes, M. T.: Representation of vegetation
dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two
contrasting approaches within European climate space, Global Ecol. Biogeogr.,
10, 621–637, 2001.
Smith, B., Wårlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.
Spasojevic, M. J., Bahlai, C. A., Bradley, B. A., Butterfield, B. J., Tuanmu, M.-N., Sistla, S., Wiederholt, R., and Suding, K. N.: Scaling up the diversity–resilience relationship
with trait databases and remote sensing data: the recovery of productivity
after wildfire, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 1421–1432, 2016.
Sperry, J. S. and Love, D. M.: What plant hydraulics can tell us about
responses to climate-change droughts, New Phytol., 207, 14–27, 2015.
Sperry, J. S., Hacke, U. G., Oren, R., and Comstock, J. P.: Water deficits and
hydraulic limits to leaf water supply, Plant Cell Environ., 25,
251–263, 2002.
Sperry, J. S., Wang, Y., Wolfe, B. T., Mackay, D. S., Anderegg, W. R. L., McDowell, N. G., and Pockman, W. T.: Pragmatic hydraulic theory predicts stomatal
responses to climatic water deficits, New Phytol., 212, 577–589, 2016.
Stovall, A. E. L., Shugart, H., and Yang, X.: Tree height explains mortality
risk during an intense drought, Nat. Commun., 10, 4385, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12380-6, 2019.
Tague, C. L, and Moritz, M. A.: Plant Accessible Water Storage Capacity and
Tree-Scale Root Interactions Determine How Forest Density Reductions Alter
Forest Water Use and Productivity, Front. Forests and Global Change, 2, 36, https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2019.00036,
2019.
Tomasella, M., Petrussa, E., Petruzzellis, F., Nardini, A., and Casolo, V.: The Possible
Role of Non-Structural Carbohydrates in the Regulation of Tree Hydraulics,
Int. J. Mol. Sci., 21, 144,
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms21010144, 2020.
Trugman, A. T., Detto, M., Bartlett, M. K., Medvigy, D., Anderegg, W. R. L., Schwalm, C., Schaffer, B., and Pacala, S. W.: Tree carbon allocation explains forest drought-kill and
recovery patterns, Ecol. Lett., 21, 1552–1560, 2018.
Trugman, A. T., Anderegg, L. D. L., Sperry, J. S., Wang, Y., Venturas,
M., and Anderegg, W. R. L.: Leveraging plant hydraulics to yield predictive and
dynamic plant leaf allocation in vegetation models with climate
change, Glob. Change
Biol., 25, 4008–4021, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14814, 2019.
Uriarte, M., Lasky, J. R., Boukili, V. K., and Chazdon, R. L.: A
trait-mediated, neighbourhood approach to quantify climate impacts on
successional dynamics of tropical rainforests, Funct. Ecol., 30, 157–167,
2016.
Vargas G., G., Brodribb, T. J., Dupuy, J. M., González‐M., R., Hulshof, C. M., Medvigy, D., Allerton, T. A. P., Pizano, C., Salgado‐Negret, B., Schwartz, N. B., Van Bloem, S. J., Waring, B. G., and Powers, J. S.: Beyond leaf
habit: generalities in plant function across 97 tropical dry forest tree
species, New Phytol., 232, 148–161, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17584, 2021.
Venturas, M. D., Todd, H. N., Trugman, A. T., and Anderegg, W. R.:
Understanding and predicting forest mortality in the western United States
using long-term forest inventory data and modeled hydraulic damage, New
Phytol., 230, 1896–1910, 2021.
Wang, D., Heckathorn, S. A., Wang, X., and Philpott, S. M.: A meta-analysis of
plant physiological and growth responses to temperature and elevated CO2,
Oecologia, 169, 1–13, 2012.
Weng, E. S., Malyshev, S., Lichstein, J. W., Farrior, C. E., Dybzinski, R., Zhang, T., Shevliakova, E., and Pacala, S. W.: Scaling from individual trees to forests in an Earth system modeling framework using a mathematically tractable model of height-structured competition, Biogeosciences, 12, 2655–2694, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2655-2015, 2015.
Williams, A. P., Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Swetnam, T. W., Rauscher, S. A., Seager, R., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., Dean, J. S., Cook, E. R., Gangodagamage, C., Cai, M., and McDowell, N. G.: Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought
stress and tree mortality, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 292–297, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693, 2012.
Williams, A. P., Seager, R., Berkelhammer, M., Macalady, A. K., Crimmins, M. A., Swetnam, T. W., Trugman, A. T., Buenning, N., Hryniw, N., McDowell, N. G., Noone, D., Mora, C. I., and Rahn, T.: Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric
Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the
Southwestern United States, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 53,
2671–2684, 2014.
Williams, L. J., Bunyavejchewin, S., and Baker, P. J.: Deciduousness in a
seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand: interannual and intraspecific
variation in timing, duration and environmental cues, Oecologia, 155,
571–582, 2008.
Wullschleger, S. D., Hanson, P. J., and Todd, D. E.: Transpiration from a
multi-species deciduous forest as estimated by xylem sap flow techniques,
Forest Ecol. Manag., 143, 205–213, 2001.
Xu, X., Medvigy, D., Powers, J. S., Becknell, J. M., and Guan, K.: Diversity in
plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of
vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests, New Phytol., 212,
80–95, 2016.
Xu, X., Longo, M., and Moorcroft, P.: ED-2.2-hydro (v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3978588, 2020.
Yang, Y., Hillebrand, H., Lagisz, M., Cleasby, I., and Nakagawa, S.: Low
statistical power and overestimated anthropogenic impacts, exacerbated by
publication bias, dominate field studies in global change biology, Glob.
Change Biol., 28, 969–989, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15972, 2022.
Zhu, K., Chiariello, N. R., Tobeck, T., Fukami, T., and Field, C. B.:
Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under
global change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 10589–10594, 2016.
Zhu, S.-D., Chen, Y.-J., Ye, Q., He, P.-C., Liu, H., Li, R.-H., Fu, P.-L., Jiang, G.-F., and Cao, K.-F.: Leaf
turgor loss point is correlated with drought tolerance and leaf carbon
economics traits, Tree Physiol., 38,
658–663, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpy013, 2018.
Zscheischler, J., Mahecha, M. D., Von Buttlar, J., Harmeling, S., Jung, M., Rammig, A., Randerson, J. T., Schölkopf, B., Seneviratne, S. I., Tomelleri, E., Zaehle, S., and Reichstein, M.: A few extreme events dominate global interannual
variability in gross primary production, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 035001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/035001,
2014.
Short summary
Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint