Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance
Alexander J. Norton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA
A. Anthony Bloom
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA
Nicholas C. Parazoo
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA
Paul A. Levine
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA
Shuang Ma
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA
Renato K. Braghiere
Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA
T. Luke Smallman
School of GeoSciences and NCEO, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
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Global carbon and water have large uncertainties that are hard to quantify in current regional and global models. Field observations provide opportunities for better calibration and validation of current modeling of carbon and water. With the unique structure of CARDAMOM, we have utilized the data assimilation capability and designed the benchmarking framework by using field observations in modeling. Results show that data assimilation improves model performance in different aspects.
Stephanie G. Stettz, Nicholas C. Parazoo, A. Anthony Bloom, Peter D. Blanken, David R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Brett Raczka, Alexander J. Norton, Ian Baker, Mathew Williams, Mingjie Shi, Yongguang Zhang, and Bo Qiu
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Uncertainty in the response of photosynthesis to temperature poses a major challenge to predicting the response of forests to climate change. In this paper, we study how photosynthesis in a mountainous evergreen forest is limited by temperature. This study highlights that cold temperature is a key factor that controls spring photosynthesis. Including the cold-temperature limitation in an ecosystem model improved its ability to simulate spring photosynthesis.
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Accounting for carbon and nutrients in rivers is essential for resolving carbon dioxide (CO2) exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere. In this study, we add the effect of present-day rivers to a pioneering global-ocean biogeochemistry model. This study highlights the challenge for global ocean numerical models to cover the complexity of the flow of water and carbon across the Land-to-Ocean Aquatic Continuum.
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2023 saw an unexpectedly high global atmospheric CO2 growth. Satellite data reveal a role for increased emissions over the tropics. Larger emissions over eastern Brazil can be explained by warmer temperatures, while changes in rainfall and soil moisture play more of a role in emission increases elsewhere in the tropics.
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Biogeosciences, 22, 1985–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1985-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1985-2025, 2025
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We find West African solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) increases during the dry season and peaks before precipitation, similar to the Amazon. In central Africa, a continental-scale bimodal SIF seasonality appears; its minimum aligns with precipitation, but its maximum seems less environmentally driven. Notably, differences between SIF and vegetation index (VI) seasonality indicate VI-based photosynthesis estimates may be inaccurate.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
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When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
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Hannah Nesser, Daniel J. Jacob, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Alba Lorente, Zichong Chen, Xiao Lu, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Margaux Winter, Shuang Ma, A. Anthony Bloom, John R. Worden, Robert N. Stavins, and Cynthia A. Randles
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We quantify 2019 methane emissions in the contiguous US (CONUS) at a ≈ 25 km × 25 km resolution using satellite methane observations. We find a 13 % upward correction to the 2023 US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory (GHGI) for 2019, with large corrections to individual states, urban areas, and landfills. This may present a challenge for US climate policies and goals, many of which target significant reductions in methane emissions.
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Preprint archived
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Here we present a novel model of global photosynthesis, ChloFluo, which uses spaceborne chlorophyll fluorescence to estimate the amount of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by chlorophyll. Potential uses of our model are to advance our understanding of the timing and magnitude of photosynthesis, its effect on atmospheric carbon dioxide fluxes, and vegetation response to climate events and change.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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Luana S. Basso, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Graciela Tejada, Henrique L. G. Cassol, Egídio Arai, Mathew Williams, T. Luke Smallman, Wouter Peters, Stijn Naus, John B. Miller, and Manuel Gloor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9685–9723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9685-2023, 2023
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The Amazon’s carbon balance may have changed due to forest degradation, deforestation and warmer climate. We used an atmospheric model and atmospheric CO2 observations to quantify Amazonian carbon emissions (2010–2018). The region was a small carbon source to the atmosphere, mostly due to fire emissions. Forest uptake compensated for ~ 50 % of the fire emissions, meaning that the remaining forest is still a small carbon sink. We found no clear evidence of weakening carbon uptake over the period.
David T. Milodowski, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams
Biogeosciences, 20, 3301–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3301-2023, 2023
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Model–data fusion (MDF) allows us to combine ecosystem models with Earth observation data. Fragmented landscapes, with a mosaic of contrasting ecosystems, pose a challenge for MDF. We develop a novel MDF framework to estimate the carbon balance of fragmented landscapes and show the importance of accounting for ecosystem heterogeneity to prevent scale-dependent bias in estimated carbon fluxes, disturbance fluxes in particular, and to improve ecological fidelity of the calibrated models.
Xueying Yu, Dylan B. Millet, Daven K. Henze, Alexander J. Turner, Alba Lorente Delgado, A. Anthony Bloom, and Jianxiong Sheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3325–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3325-2023, 2023
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We combine satellite measurements with a novel downscaling method to map global methane emissions at 0.1°×0.1° resolution. These fine-scale emission estimates reveal unreported emission hotspots and shed light on the roles of agriculture, wetlands, and fossil fuels for regional methane budgets. The satellite-derived emissions point in particular to missing fossil fuel emissions in the Middle East and to a large emission underestimate in South Asia that appears to be tied to monsoon rainfall.
Robert J. Parker, Chris Wilson, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Toby R. Marthews, A. Anthony Bloom, Mark F. Lunt, Nicola Gedney, Simon J. Dadson, Joe McNorton, Neil Humpage, Hartmut Boesch, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Paul I. Palmer, and Dai Yamazaki
Biogeosciences, 19, 5779–5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, 2022
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Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane, one of the most important climate gases. The JULES land surface model simulates these emissions. We use satellite data to evaluate how well JULES reproduces the methane seasonal cycle over different tropical wetlands. It performs well for most regions; however, it struggles for some African wetlands influenced heavily by river flooding. We explain the reasons for these deficiencies and highlight how future development will improve these areas.
Brendan Byrne, Junjie Liu, Yonghong Yi, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sourish Basu, Rui Cheng, Russell Doughty, Frédéric Chevallier, Kevin W. Bowman, Nicholas C. Parazoo, David Crisp, Xing Li, Jingfeng Xiao, Stephen Sitch, Bertrand Guenet, Feng Deng, Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, Patrick C. McGuire, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 19, 4779–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, 2022
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Plants draw CO2 from the atmosphere during the growing season, while respiration releases CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year, driving seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 that can be observed by satellites, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). Using OCO-2 XCO2 data and space-based constraints on plant growth, we show that permafrost-rich northeast Eurasia has a strong seasonal release of CO2 during the autumn, hinting at an unexpectedly large respiration signal from soils.
Vasileios Myrgiotis, Thomas Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams
Biogeosciences, 19, 4147–4170, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4147-2022, 2022
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This study shows that livestock grazing and grass cutting can determine whether a grassland is adding (source) or removing (sink) carbon (C) to/from the atmosphere. The annual C balance of 1855 managed grassland fields in Great Britain was quantified for 2017–2018 using process modelling and earth observation data. The examined fields were, on average, small C sinks, but the summer drought of 2018 led to a 9-fold increase in the number of fields that became C sources in 2018 compared to 2017.
John R. Worden, Daniel H. Cusworth, Zhen Qu, Yi Yin, Yuzhong Zhang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, Brendan K. Byrne, Tia Scarpelli, Joannes D. Maasakkers, David Crisp, Riley Duren, and Daniel J. Jacob
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6811–6841, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6811-2022, 2022
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This paper is intended to accomplish two goals: 1) describe a new algorithm by which remotely sensed measurements of methane or other tracers can be used to not just quantify methane fluxes, but also attribute these fluxes to specific sources and regions and characterize their uncertainties, and 2) use this new algorithm to provide methane emissions by sector and country in support of the global stock take.
Shuang Ma, Lifen Jiang, Rachel M. Wilson, Jeff P. Chanton, Scott Bridgham, Shuli Niu, Colleen M. Iversen, Avni Malhotra, Jiang Jiang, Xingjie Lu, Yuanyuan Huang, Jason Keller, Xiaofeng Xu, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul J. Hanson, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 19, 2245–2262, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022, 2022
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The relative ratio of wetland methane (CH4) emission pathways determines how much CH4 is oxidized before leaving the soil. We found an ebullition modeling approach that has a better performance in deep layer pore water CH4 concentration. We suggest using this approach in land surface models to accurately represent CH4 emission dynamics and response to climate change. Our results also highlight that both CH4 flux and belowground concentration data are important to constrain model parameters.
Russell Doughty, Thomas P. Kurosu, Nicholas Parazoo, Philipp Köhler, Yujie Wang, Ying Sun, and Christian Frankenberg
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1513–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1513-2022, 2022
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We describe and compare solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data produced by NASA from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and OCO-3 platforms.
Elias C. Massoud, A. Anthony Bloom, Marcos Longo, John T. Reager, Paul A. Levine, and John R. Worden
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1407–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, 2022
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The water balance on river basin scales depends on a number of soil physical processes. Gaining information on these quantities using observations is a key step toward improving the skill of land surface hydrology models. In this study, we use data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA-GRACE) to inform and constrain these hydrologic processes. We show that our model is able to simulate the land hydrologic cycle for a watershed in the Amazon from January 2003 to December 2012.
Yan Yang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, Paul Levine, Alexander Norton, Nicholas C. Parazoo, John T. Reager, John Worden, Gregory R. Quetin, T. Luke Smallman, Mathew Williams, Liang Xu, and Sassan Saatchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1789–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022, 2022
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Global carbon and water have large uncertainties that are hard to quantify in current regional and global models. Field observations provide opportunities for better calibration and validation of current modeling of carbon and water. With the unique structure of CARDAMOM, we have utilized the data assimilation capability and designed the benchmarking framework by using field observations in modeling. Results show that data assimilation improves model performance in different aspects.
Stephanie G. Stettz, Nicholas C. Parazoo, A. Anthony Bloom, Peter D. Blanken, David R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Brett Raczka, Alexander J. Norton, Ian Baker, Mathew Williams, Mingjie Shi, Yongguang Zhang, and Bo Qiu
Biogeosciences, 19, 541–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, 2022
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Uncertainty in the response of photosynthesis to temperature poses a major challenge to predicting the response of forests to climate change. In this paper, we study how photosynthesis in a mountainous evergreen forest is limited by temperature. This study highlights that cold temperature is a key factor that controls spring photosynthesis. Including the cold-temperature limitation in an ecosystem model improved its ability to simulate spring photosynthesis.
Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Haolin Wang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Yuzhong Zhang, Tia R. Scarpelli, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, John R. Worden, Shaojia Fan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Ritesh Gautam, Deborah Gordon, Michael D. Moran, Frances Reuland, Claudia A. Octaviano Villasana, and Arlyn Andrews
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 395–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-395-2022, 2022
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We evaluate methane emissions and trends for 2010–2017 in the gridded national emission inventories for the United States, Canada, and Mexico by inversion of in situ and satellite methane observations. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions for all three countries are underestimated in the national inventories, largely driven by oil emissions. Anthropogenic methane emissions in the US peak in 2014, in contrast to the report of a steadily decreasing trend over 2010–2017 from the US EPA.
Thomas Luke Smallman, David Thomas Milodowski, Eráclito Sousa Neto, Gerbrand Koren, Jean Ometto, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1191–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021, 2021
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Our study provides a novel assessment of model parameter, structure and climate change scenario uncertainty contribution to future predictions of the Brazilian terrestrial carbon stocks to 2100. We calibrated (2001–2017) five models of the terrestrial C cycle of varied structure. The calibrated models were then projected to 2100 under multiple climate change scenarios. Parameter uncertainty dominates overall uncertainty, being ~ 40 times that of either model structure or climate change scenario.
Yujie Wang, Philipp Köhler, Liyin He, Russell Doughty, Renato K. Braghiere, Jeffrey D. Wood, and Christian Frankenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6741–6763, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6741-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6741-2021, 2021
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We present the first step in testing a new land model as part of a new Earth system model. Our model links plant hydraulics, stomatal optimization theory, and a comprehensive canopy radiation scheme. We compared model-predicted carbon and water fluxes to flux tower observations and model-predicted sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence to satellite retrievals. Our model quantitatively predicted the carbon and water fluxes as well as the canopy fluorescence yield.
Zhen Qu, Daniel J. Jacob, Lu Shen, Xiao Lu, Yuzhong Zhang, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah Nesser, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Joannes D. Maasakkers, A. Anthony Bloom, John R. Worden, Robert J. Parker, and Alba L. Delgado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14159–14175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14159-2021, 2021
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The recent launch of TROPOMI offers an unprecedented opportunity to quantify the methane budget from a top-down perspective. We use TROPOMI and the more mature GOSAT methane observations to estimate methane emissions and get consistent global budgets. However, TROPOMI shows biases over regions where surface albedo is small and provides less information for the coarse-resolution inversion due to the larger error correlations and spatial variations in the number of observations.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet, Marielle Saunois, Bo Zheng, John Worden, A. Anthony Bloom, Robert J. Parker, Daniel J. Jacob, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Christian Frankenberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12631–12647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021, 2021
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The growth of methane, the second-most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, has been accelerating in recent years. Using an ensemble of multi-tracer atmospheric inversions constrained by surface or satellite observations, we show that global methane emissions increased by nearly 1 % per year from 2010–2017, with leading contributions from the tropics and East Asia.
Dien Wu, John C. Lin, Henrique F. Duarte, Vineet Yadav, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Tomohiro Oda, and Eric A. Kort
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3633–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3633-2021, 2021
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A model (SMUrF) is presented that estimates biogenic CO2 fluxes over cities around the globe to separate out biogenic fluxes from anthropogenic emissions. The model leverages satellite-based solar-induced fluorescence data and a machine-learning technique. We evaluate the biogenic fluxes against flux observations and show contrasts between biogenic and anthropogenic fluxes over cities, revealing urban–rural flux gradients, diurnal cycles, and the resulting imprints on atmospheric-column CO2.
Caroline A. Famiglietti, T. Luke Smallman, Paul A. Levine, Sophie Flack-Prain, Gregory R. Quetin, Victoria Meyer, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Stephanie G. Stettz, Yan Yang, Damien Bonal, A. Anthony Bloom, Mathew Williams, and Alexandra G. Konings
Biogeosciences, 18, 2727–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2727-2021, 2021
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Model uncertainty dominates the spread in terrestrial carbon cycle predictions. Efforts to reduce it typically involve adding processes, thereby increasing model complexity. However, if and how model performance scales with complexity is unclear. Using a suite of 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models, we find that increased complexity only improves skill if parameters are adequately informed. Otherwise, it can degrade skill, and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal.
Xiao Lu, Daniel J. Jacob, Yuzhong Zhang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah Nesser, Robert M. Yantosca, Jianxiong Sheng, Arlyn Andrews, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, A. Anthony Bloom, and Shuang Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021, 2021
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We use an analytical solution to the Bayesian inverse problem to quantitatively compare and combine the information from satellite and in situ observations, and to estimate global methane budget and their trends over the 2010–2017 period. We find that satellite and in situ observations are to a large extent complementary in the inversion for estimating global methane budget, and reveal consistent corrections of regional anthropogenic and wetland methane emissions relative to the prior inventory.
Joannes D. Maasakkers, Daniel J. Jacob, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Tia R. Scarpelli, Hannah Nesser, Jianxiong Sheng, Yuzhong Zhang, Xiao Lu, A. Anthony Bloom, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, and Robert J. Parker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4339–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4339-2021, 2021
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We use 2010–2015 GOSAT satellite observations of atmospheric methane over North America in a high-resolution inversion to estimate methane emissions. We find general consistency with the gridded EPA inventory but higher oil and gas production emissions, with oil production emissions twice as large as in the latest EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory. We find lower wetland emissions than predicted by WetCHARTs and a small increasing trend in the eastern US, apparently related to unconventional oil/gas.
Yuzhong Zhang, Daniel J. Jacob, Xiao Lu, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tia R. Scarpelli, Jian-Xiong Sheng, Lu Shen, Zhen Qu, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Jinfeng Chang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, John Worden, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3643–3666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3643-2021, 2021
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We use 2010–2018 satellite observations of atmospheric methane to interpret the factors controlling atmospheric methane and its accelerating increase during the period. The 2010–2018 increase in global methane emissions is driven by tropical and boreal wetlands and tropical livestock (South Asia, Africa, Brazil), with an insignificant positive trend in emissions from the fossil fuel sector. The peak methane growth rates in 2014–2015 are also contributed by low OH and high fire emissions.
Junjie Liu, Latha Baskaran, Kevin Bowman, David Schimel, A. Anthony Bloom, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Tomohiro Oda, Dustin Carroll, Dimitris Menemenlis, Joanna Joiner, Roisin Commane, Bruce Daube, Lucianna V. Gatti, Kathryn McKain, John Miller, Britton B. Stephens, Colm Sweeney, and Steven Wofsy
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 299–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-299-2021, 2021
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On average, the terrestrial biosphere carbon sink is equivalent to ~ 20 % of fossil fuel emissions. Understanding where and why the terrestrial biosphere absorbs carbon from the atmosphere is pivotal to any mitigation policy. Here we present a regionally resolved satellite-constrained net biosphere exchange (NBE) dataset with corresponding uncertainties between 2010–2018: CMS-Flux NBE 2020. The dataset provides a unique perspective on monitoring regional contributions to the CO2 growth rate.
Xueying Yu, Dylan B. Millet, Kelley C. Wells, Daven K. Henze, Hansen Cao, Timothy J. Griffis, Eric A. Kort, Genevieve Plant, Malte J. Deventer, Randall K. Kolka, D. Tyler Roman, Kenneth J. Davis, Ankur R. Desai, Bianca C. Baier, Kathryn McKain, Alan C. Czarnetzki, and A. Anthony Bloom
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 951–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-951-2021, 2021
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Methane concentrations have doubled since 1750. The US Upper Midwest is a key region contributing to such trends, but sources are poorly understood. We collected and analyzed aircraft data to resolve spatial and timing biases in wetland and livestock emission estimates and uncover errors in inventory treatment of manure management. We highlight the importance of intensive agriculture for the regional and US methane budgets and the potential for methane mitigation through improved management.
Sudhanshu Pandey, Sander Houweling, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Maria Tsivlidou, A. Anthony Bloom, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, and Ilse Aben
Biogeosciences, 18, 557–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-557-2021, 2021
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We use atmospheric methane observations from the novel TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI; Sentinel-5p) to estimate methane emissions from South Sudan's wetlands. Our emission estimates are an order of magnitude larger than the estimate of process-based wetland models. We find that this underestimation by the models is likely due to their misrepresentation of the wetlands' inundation extent and temperature dependences.
Yuming Jin, Ralph F. Keeling, Eric J. Morgan, Eric Ray, Nicholas C. Parazoo, and Britton B. Stephens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 217–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-217-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-217-2021, 2021
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We propose a new atmospheric coordinate (Mθe) based on equivalent potential temperature (θe) but with mass as the unit. This coordinate is useful in studying the spatial and temporal distribution of long-lived chemical tracers (CO2, CH4, O2 / N2, etc.) from sparse data, like airborne observation. Using this coordinate and sparse airborne observation (HIPPO and ATom), we resolve the Northern Hemisphere mass-weighted average CO2 seasonal cycle with high accuracy.
A. Anthony Bloom, Kevin W. Bowman, Junjie Liu, Alexandra G. Konings, John R. Worden, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Victoria Meyer, John T. Reager, Helen M. Worden, Zhe Jiang, Gregory R. Quetin, T. Luke Smallman, Jean-François Exbrayat, Yi Yin, Sassan S. Saatchi, Mathew Williams, and David S. Schimel
Biogeosciences, 17, 6393–6422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6393-2020, 2020
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We use a model of the 2001–2015 tropical land carbon cycle, with satellite measurements of land and atmospheric carbon, to disentangle lagged and concurrent effects (due to past and concurrent meteorological events, respectively) on annual land–atmosphere carbon exchanges. The variability of lagged effects explains most 2001–2015 inter-annual carbon flux variations. We conclude that concurrent and lagged effects need to be accurately resolved to better predict the world's land carbon sink.
Robert J. Parker, Chris Wilson, A. Anthony Bloom, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Joe McNorton, Hartmut Boesch, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Biogeosciences, 17, 5669–5691, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5669-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5669-2020, 2020
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Wetlands contribute the largest uncertainty to the atmospheric methane budget. WetCHARTs is a simple, data-driven model that estimates wetland emissions using observations of precipitation and temperature. We perform the first detailed evaluation of WetCHARTs against satellite data and find it performs well in reproducing the observed wetland methane seasonal cycle for the majority of wetland regions. In regions where it performs poorly, we highlight incorrect wetland extent as a key reason.
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Levine, P., Bilir, E., Bloom, A., Braghiere, R., Famiglietti, C., Konings, A., Longo, M., Ma, S., Massoud, E., Meyer, V., Norton, A., Parazoo, N., Quetin, G., Smallman, L., Williams, M., Worden, J., Worden, M., Worden, S., and Yang, Y.: Constraining carbon, water, and energy cycling using diverse Earth observations across scales: the CARDAMOM 3.0 approach, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10918, 2023. a
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Martínez-Vilalta, J., Sala, A., Asensio, D., Galiano, L., Hoch, G., Palacio, S., Piper, F. I., and Lloret, F.: Dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates in terrestrial plants: a global synthesis, Ecol. Monogr., 86, 495–516, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1231, 2016. a
Massoud, E. C., Bloom, A. A., Longo, M., Reager, J. T., Levine, P. A., and Worden, J. R.: Information content of soil hydrology in a west Amazon watershed as informed by GRACE, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1407–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, 2022. a
Migliavacca, M., Sonnentag, O., Keenan, T. F., Cescatti, A., O'Keefe, J., and Richardson, A. D.: On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model, Biogeosciences, 9, 2063–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-2063-2012, 2012. a
Norton, A.: CARDAMOM-framework/CARDAMOM_v2.3: Publication: Norton et al. 2023, Version CARDAMOM_v2.3, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8063861, 2023. a
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Short summary
This study explores how the representation of leaf phenology affects our ability to predict changes to the carbon balance of land ecosystems. We calibrate a new leaf phenology model against a diverse range of observations at six forest sites, showing that it improves the predictive capability of the processes underlying the ecosystem carbon balance. We then show how changes in temperature and rainfall affect the ecosystem carbon balance with this new model.
This study explores how the representation of leaf phenology affects our ability to predict...
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