Articles | Volume 21, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024
Research article
 | 
12 Dec 2024
Research article |  | 12 Dec 2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng

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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G.: Towards a benchmark for land surface models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L22702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024419, 2005. 
Abramowitz, G.: Towards a public, standardized, diagnostic benchmarking system for land surface models, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 819–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-819-2012, 2012. 
Abramowitz, G., Pouyanné, L., and Ajami, H.: On the information content of surface meteorology for downward atmospheric long-wave radiation synthesis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04808, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050726, 2012. 
Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019. 
Arora, V. K., Seiler, C., Wang, L., and Kou-Giesbrecht, S.: Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations, Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023. 
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This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
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