Articles | Volume 14, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Nov 2017
Research article |
| 17 Nov 2017
Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models
Sarah E. Chadburn
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical sciences, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
Gerhard Krinner
CNRS, University Grenoble Alpes, IGE, Grenoble, France
Philipp Porada
Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Annett Bartsch
Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria
Cryosphere & Climate, Austrian Polar Research Institute, Vienna, Austria
Christian Beer
Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Luca Belelli Marchesini
School of Natural Sciences, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Julia Boike
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Altug Ekici
Uni Research Climate and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Bo Elberling
Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Thomas Friborg
Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Gustaf Hugelius
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Margareta Johansson
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Peter Kuhry
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Lars Kutzbach
Institute of Soil Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Moritz Langer
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Magnus Lund
Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT – The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
Shushi Peng
CNRS, University Grenoble Alpes, IGE, Grenoble, France
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Ko Van Huissteden
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Tao Wang
Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research and Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
Sebastian Westermann
University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
Dan Zhu
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
Eleanor J. Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
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S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Lotte Wendt, Line Rouyet, Hanne H. Christiansen, Tom Rune Lauknes, and Sebastian Westermann
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Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Avirmed Dashtseren, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Anarmaa Sharkhuu, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5059–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, 2024
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Intense grazing at grassland sites removes vegetation, reduces the snow cover, and inhibits litter layers from forming. Grazed sites generally have a larger annual ground surface temperature amplitude than ungrazed sites, but the net effect depends on effects in the transitional seasons. Our results also suggest that seasonal use of pastures can reduce ground temperatures, which can be a strategy to protect currently degrading grassland permafrost.
Xiankun Li, Marleen Pallandt, Dilip Naidu, Johannes Rousk, Gustaf Hugelius, and Stefano Manzoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3324, 2024
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While laboratory studies have identified many drivers and their effects on the carbon emission pulse after rewetting of dry soils, a validation with field data is still missing. Here, we show that the carbon emission pulse in the laboratory and in the field increases with soil organic carbon and temperature, but their trends with pre-rewetting dryness and moisture increment at rewetting differ. We conclude that the laboratory findings can be partially validated.
Sigrid Trier Kjær, Sebastian Westermann, Nora Nedkvitne, and Peter Dörsch
Biogeosciences, 21, 4723–4737, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, 2024
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Permafrost peatlands are thawing due to climate change, releasing large quantities of carbon that degrades upon thawing and is released as CO2, CH4 or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We incubated thawed Norwegian permafrost peat plateaus and thermokarst pond sediment found next to permafrost for up to 350 d to measure carbon loss. CO2 production was initially the highest, whereas CH4 production increased over time. The largest carbon loss was measured at the top of the peat plateau core as DOC.
Clemens von Baeckmann, Annett Bartsch, Helena Bergstedt, Aleksandra Efimova, Barbara Widhalm, Dorothee Ehrich, Timo Kumpula, Alexander Sokolov, and Svetlana Abdulmanova
The Cryosphere, 18, 4703–4722, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4703-2024, 2024
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Lakes are common features in Arctic permafrost areas. Land cover change following their drainage needs to be monitored since it has implications for ecology and the carbon cycle. Satellite data are key in this context. We compared a common vegetation index approach with a novel land-cover-monitoring scheme. Land cover information provides specific information on wetland features. We also showed that the bioclimatic gradients play a significant role after drainage within the first 10 years.
Cecile B. Menard, Sirpa Rasmus, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Annett Bartsch, Chris Derksen, Florent Domine, Marie Dumont, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard Essery, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerhard Krinner, David Lawrence, Glen Liston, Heidrun Matthes, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Martin Schneebeli, and Sari Stark
The Cryosphere, 18, 4671–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, 2024
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Computer models, like those used in climate change studies, are written by modellers who have to decide how best to construct the models in order to satisfy the purpose they serve. Using snow modelling as an example, we examine the process behind the decisions to understand what motivates or limits modellers in their decision-making. We find that the context in which research is undertaken is often more crucial than scientific limitations. We argue for more transparency in our research practice.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
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Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Barbara Widhalm, Annett Bartsch, Tazio Strozzi, Nina Jones, Artem Khomutov, Elena Babkina, Marina Leibman, Rustam Khairullin, Mathias Göckede, Helena Bergstedt, Clemens von Baeckmann, and Xaver Muri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2356, 2024
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Mapping soil moisture in Arctic permafrost regions is crucial for various activities, but it is challenging with typical satellite methods due to the landscape's diversity. Seasonal freezing and thawing cause the ground to periodically rise and subside. Our research demonstrates that this seasonal ground settlement, measured with Sentinel-1 satellite data, is larger in areas with wetter soils. This method helps to monitor permafrost degradation.
Soraya Kaiser, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Moritz Langer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3719–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024, 2024
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Arctic warming, leading to permafrost degradation, poses primary threats to infrastructure and secondary ecological hazards from possible infrastructure failure. Our study created a comprehensive Alaska inventory combining various data sources with which we improved infrastructure classification and data on contaminated sites. This resource is presented as a GeoPackage allowing planning of infrastructure damage and possible implications for Arctic communities facing permafrost challenges.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024
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This inaugural State of Wildfires report catalogues extreme fires of the 2023–2024 fire season. For key events, we analyse their predictability and drivers and attribute them to climate change and land use. We provide a seasonal outlook and decadal projections. Key anomalies occurred in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia, with other high-impact events catalogued worldwide. Climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires, and mitigation is required to lessen future risk.
Annett Bartsch, Xaver Muri, Markus Hetzenecker, Kimmo Rautiainen, Helena Bergstedt, Jan Wuite, Thomas Nagler, and Dmitry Nicolsky
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2518, 2024
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We developed a robust freeze/thaw detection approach, applying a constant threshold on Copernicus Sentinel-1 data, that is suitable for tundra regions. All global, coarser resolution products, tested with the resulting benchmarking dataset, are of value for freeze/thaw retrieval, although differences were found depending on seasons, in particular during spring and autumn transition.
Bernhard Lehner, Mira Anand, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Florence Tan, Filipe Aires, George H. Allen, Pilippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Nick Davidson, C. Max Finlayson, Thomas Gumbricht, Lammert Hilarides, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Maartje C. Korver, Peter B. McIntyre, Szabolcs Nagy, David Olefeldt, Tamlin M. Pavelsky, Jean-Francois Pekel, Benjamin Poulter, Catherine Prigent, Jida Wang, Thomas A. Worthington, Dai Yamazaki, and Michele Thieme
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD) version 2 distinguishes a total of 33 non-overlapping wetland classes, providing a static map of the world’s inland surface waters. It contains cell fractions of wetland extents per class at a grid cell resolution of ~500 m. The total combined extent of all classes including all inland and coastal waterbodies and wetlands of all inundation frequencies—that is, the maximum extent—covers 18.2 million km2, equivalent to 13.4 % of total global land area.
Youssef Saadaoui, Christian Beer, Peter Mueller, Friederike Neiske, Joscha N. Becker, Annette Eschenbach, and Philipp Porada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1756, 2024
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Estuarine marshes are vital for capturing carbon and benefiting the climate. Our research explored how plant-microbe interactions affect carbon cycling, focusing on traits like root oxygen loss. Using a model, we found that accounting for these trait variations significantly changes carbon balance estimates. This suggests that including plant diversity in ecosystem models improves predictions about carbon dynamics in estuarine marshes, highlighting their importance in climate regulation.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
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Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
Annett Bartsch, Aleksandra Efimova, Barbara Widhalm, Xaver Muri, Clemens von Baeckmann, Helena Bergstedt, Ksenia Ermokhina, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Heim, and Marina Leibman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2421–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2421-2024, 2024
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Wetness gradients and landcover diversity for the entire Arctic tundra have been assessed using a novel satellite-data-based map. Patterns of lakes, wetlands, general soil moisture conditions and vegetation physiognomy are represented at 10 m. About 40 % of the area north of the treeline falls into three units of dry types, with limited shrub growth. Wetter regions have higher landcover diversity than drier regions.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Frederieke Miesner, William Lambert Cable, Pier Paul Overduin, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 18, 2603–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2603-2024, 2024
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The temperature in the sediment below Arctic lakes determines the stability of the permafrost and microbial activity. However, measurements are scarce because of the remoteness. We present a robust and portable device to fill this gap. Test campaigns have demonstrated its utility in a range of environments during winter and summer. The measured temperatures show a great variability within and across locations. The data can be used to validate models and estimate potential emissions.
Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1504, 2024
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Fauna and flora respires carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which is a major carbon flux into the atmosphere. The underlying biochemical processes are complex, and we generalize them either assuming a first order chemical reaction of carbon and oxygen to carbon dioxide, or assuming enzymatic reactions. Here, we show that these assumptions lead to large differences in estimating the carbon-climate feedback until 2100 and the remaining carbon budget to keep warming below 2 degrees C.
Marco Mazzolini, Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Sebastian Westermann, and Désirée Treichler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, 2024
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In this work, we use the satellite laser altimeter ICESat-2 to retrieve snow depth in areas where snow amounts are still poorly estimated despite the high societal importance. We explore how to update snow models with these observations through algorithms that spatially propagate the information beyond the narrow satellite profiles. The positive results show the potential of this approach for improving snow simulations, both in terms of average snow depth and spatial distribution.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
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Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Ephraim Erkens, Michael Angelopoulos, Jens Tronicke, Scott R. Dallimore, Dustin Whalen, Julia Boike, and Pier Paul Overduin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1044, 2024
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We investigate the depth of subsea permafrost formed by inundation of terrestrial permafrost due to marine transgression around the rapidly disappearing, permafrost-cored Tuktoyaktuk Island (Beaufort Sea, NWT, Canada). We use geoelectrical surveys with floating electrodes to identify the boundary between unfrozen and frozen sediment. Our findings indicate that permafrost thaw depths beneath the seabed can be explained by coastal erosion rates and landscape features before inundation.
Qing Ying, Benjamin Poulter, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lori Bruhwiler, Youmi Oh, Brendan M. Rogers, Susan M. Natali, Hilary Sullivan, Luke D. Schiferl, Clayton Elder, Olli Peltola, Annett Bartsch, Amanda Armstrong, Ankur R. Desai, Eugénie Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Bernhard Lehner, Mats B. Nilsson, Matthias Peichl, Oliver Sonnentag, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Masahito Ueyama, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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We present daily methane fluxes of northern wetlands at 10-km resolution during 2016–2022 (WetCH4) derived from a novel machine-learning framework with improved accuracy. We estimated an average annual CH4 emissions of 20.8 ±2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. Emissions were intensified in 2016, 2020, and 2022, with the largest interannual variations coming from West Siberia. Continued, all-season tower observations and improved soil moisture products are needed for future improvement of CH4 upscaling.
Camilla Therese Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Eszter Kovacs, Gregory Munday, Chris Huntingford, Chris Jones, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Andy Wiltshire, Laila Gohar, and Rebecca Varney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2932, 2024
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emission scenarios and rapidly provide regional impacts information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales including analysis of many important variables for impacts assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios giving confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
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We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Brian Groenke, Lisa-Marie Assmann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Simone Maria Stuenzi, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 18, 363–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, 2024
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Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, 2024
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions and up-scaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
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Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Justyna Czekirda, Sebastian Westermann, Christin Hilbich, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 17, 5477–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, 2023
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Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is widespread in the mountains of Norway and Iceland. Several boreholes were drilled after 1999 for long-term permafrost monitoring. We document a strong warming of permafrost, including the development of unfrozen bodies in the permafrost. Warming and degradation of mountain permafrost may lead to more natural hazards.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
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Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Jennika Hammar, Inge Grünberg, Steven V. Kokelj, Jurjen van der Sluijs, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 5357–5372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, 2023
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Roads on permafrost have significant environmental effects. This study assessed the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH) in Canada and its impact on snow accumulation, albedo and snowmelt timing. Our findings revealed that snow accumulation increased by up to 36 m from the road, 12-day earlier snowmelt within 100 m due to reduced albedo, and altered snowmelt patterns in seemingly undisturbed areas. Remote sensing aids in understanding road impacts on permafrost.
Anatoly O. Sinitsyn, Sara Bazin, Rasmus Benestad, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Hanne Kvitsand, Julia Lutz, Andrea L. Popp, Lena Rubensdotter, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, 2023
Preprint archived
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This study looked at under the ground on Svalbard, an archipelago close to the North Pole. We found something very surprising – there is water under the all year around frozen soil. This was not known before. This water could be used for drinking if we manage it carefully. This is important because getting clean drinking water is very difficult in Svalbard, and other Arctic places. Also, because the climate is getting warmer, there might be even more water underground in the future.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
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Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Daniela Guasconi, Sara Cousins, Stefano Manzoni, Nina Roth, and Gustaf Hugelius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2673, 2023
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This study assesses the effects of experimental drought and of a soil amendment on soil and vegetation carbon pools, at different soil depths. Drought consistently reduced soil moisture and aboveground biomass, while compost increased total soil carbon content and aboveground biomass, and effects were more pronounced in the topsoil. Root biomass was not significantly affected by the treatments. The contrasting response of roots and shoots improves our understanding of ecosystem carbon dynamics.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Tabea Rettelbach, Ingmar Nitze, Inge Grünberg, Jennika Hammar, Simon Schäffler, Daniel Hein, Matthias Gessner, Tilman Bucher, Jörg Brauchle, Jörg Hartmann, Torsten Sachs, Julia Boike, and Guido Grosse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-193, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Permafrost landscapes in the Arctic are rapidly changing due to climate warming. We here publish aerial images and elevation models with very high spatial detail that help study these landscapes in northwestern Canada and Alaska. The images were collected using the Modular Aerial Camera System (MACS). This dataset has significant implications for understanding permafrost landscape dynamics in response to climate change. It is publicly available for further research.
Matan Ben-Asher, Florence Magnin, Sebastian Westermann, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Johan Berthet, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 899–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, 2023
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Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Lukas Rimondini, Thomas Gumbricht, Anders Ahlström, and Gustaf Hugelius
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3473–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3473-2023, 2023
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Peatlands have historically sequestrated large amounts of carbon and contributed to atmospheric cooling. However, human activities and climate change may instead turn them into considerable carbon emitters. In this study, we produced high-quality maps showing the extent of peatlands in the forests of Sweden, one of the most peatland-dense countries in the world. The maps are publicly available and may be used to support work promoting sustainable peatland management and combat their degradation.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
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This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Erin Emily Thomas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2941–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, 2023
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Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice over a year) and runoff on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model. We find a small overall loss of mass over the simulation period of −0.08 m yr−1 but with no statistically significant trend. The average runoff was found to be 41 Gt yr−1, with a significant increasing trend of 6.3 Gt per decade.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
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We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Justyna Czekirda, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, and Florence Magnin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023
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We assess spatio-temporal permafrost variations in selected rock walls in Norway over the last 120 years. Ground temperature is modelled using the two-dimensional ground heat flux model CryoGrid 2D along nine profiles. Permafrost probably occurs at most sites. All simulations show increasing ground temperature from the 1980s. Our simulations show that rock wall permafrost with a temperature of −1 °C at 20 m depth could thaw at this depth within 50 years.
Yunyao Ma, Bettina Weber, Alexandra Kratz, José Raggio, Claudia Colesie, Maik Veste, Maaike Y. Bader, and Philipp Porada
Biogeosciences, 20, 2553–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, 2023
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We found that the modelled annual carbon balance of biocrusts is strongly affected by both the environment (mostly air temperature and CO2 concentration) and physiology, such as temperature response of respiration. However, the relative impacts of these drivers vary across regions with different climates. Uncertainty in driving factors may lead to unrealistic carbon balance estimates, particularly in temperate climates, and may be explained by seasonal variation of physiology due to acclimation.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
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We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Peter Stimmler, Mathias Goeckede, Bo Elberling, Susan Natali, Peter Kuhry, Nia Perron, Fabrice Lacroix, Gustaf Hugelius, Oliver Sonnentag, Jens Strauss, Christina Minions, Michael Sommer, and Jörg Schaller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1059-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1059-2023, 2023
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Arctic soils store large amounts of carbon and nutrients. The availability of nutrients, such as silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, phosphorus, and amorphous silica, is crucial to understand future carbon fluxes in the Arctic. Here, we provide, for the first time, a unique dataset of the availability of the abovementioned nutrients for the different soil layers, including the currently frozen permafrost layer. We relate these data to several geographical and geological parameters.
Annett Bartsch, Helena Bergstedt, Georg Pointner, Xaver Muri, Kimmo Rautiainen, Leena Leppänen, Kyle Joly, Aleksandr Sokolov, Pavel Orekhov, Dorothee Ehrich, and Eeva Mariatta Soininen
The Cryosphere, 17, 889–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-889-2023, 2023
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Rain-on-snow (ROS) events occur across many regions of the terrestrial Arctic in mid-winter. In extreme cases ice layers form which affect wildlife, vegetation and soils beyond the duration of the event. The fusion of multiple types of microwave satellite observations is suggested for the creation of a climate data record. Retrieval is most robust in the tundra biome, where records can be used to identify extremes and the results can be applied to impact studies at regional scale.
Niek Jesse Speetjens, Gustaf Hugelius, Thomas Gumbricht, Hugues Lantuit, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Philip A. Pika, Amanda Poste, and Jorien E. Vonk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 541–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-541-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-541-2023, 2023
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The Arctic is rapidly changing. Outside the Arctic, large databases changed how researchers look at river systems and land-to-ocean processes. We present the first integrated pan-ARctic CAtchments summary DatabasE (ARCADE) (> 40 000 river catchments draining into the Arctic Ocean). It incorporates information about the drainage area with 103 geospatial, environmental, climatic, and physiographic properties and covers small watersheds , which are especially subject to change, at a high resolution
Cas Renette, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Bernd Etzelmüller, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, Ketil Isaksen, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023
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One of the reasons for lower ground temperatures in coarse, blocky terrain is a low or varying soil moisture content, which most permafrost modelling studies did not take into account. We used the CryoGrid community model to successfully simulate this effect and found markedly lower temperatures in well-drained, blocky deposits compared to other set-ups. The inclusion of this drainage effect is another step towards a better model representation of blocky mountain terrain in permafrost regions.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Astrid Vatne, Alouette van Hove, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Massimo Cassiani, and Gabriel Katul
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7293–7314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, 2022
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In this study, we show how sparse and noisy drone measurements can be combined with an ensemble of turbulence-resolving wind simulations to estimate uncertainty-aware surface energy exchange. We demonstrate the feasibility of this drone data assimilation framework in a series of synthetic and real-world experiments. This new framework can, in future, be applied to estimate energy and gas exchange in heterogeneous landscapes more representatively than conventional methods.
Yao Gao, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Maarit Raivonen, Mika Aurela, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Elyn Humphreys, Annalea Lohila, Tingting Li, Tiina Markkanen, Olli Nevalainen, Mats B. Nilsson, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Aki Tsuruta, Huiyi Yang, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We coupled a process-based peatland CH4 emission model HIMMELI with a state-of-art land surface model JULES. The performance of the coupled model was evaluated at six northern wetland sites. The coupled model is considered to be more appropriate in simulating wetland CH4 emission. In order to improve the simulated CH4 emission, the model requires better representation of the peat soil carbon and hydrologic processes in JULES and the methane production and transportation processes in HIMMELI.
Jim Boonman, Mariet M. Hefting, Corine J. A. van Huissteden, Merit van den Berg, Jacobus (Ko) van Huissteden, Gilles Erkens, Roel Melman, and Ype van der Velde
Biogeosciences, 19, 5707–5727, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5707-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5707-2022, 2022
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Draining peat causes high CO2 emissions, and rewetting could potentially help solve this problem. In the dry year 2020 we measured that subsurface irrigation reduced CO2 emissions by 28 % and 83 % on two research sites. We modelled a peat parcel and found that the reduction depends on seepage and weather conditions and increases when using pressurized irrigation or maintaining high ditchwater levels. We found that soil temperature and moisture are suitable as indicators of peat CO2 emissions.
Marius S. A. Lambert, Hui Tang, Kjetil S. Aas, Frode Stordal, Rosie A. Fisher, Yilin Fang, Junyan Ding, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8809–8829, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8809-2022, 2022
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In this study, we implement a hardening mortality scheme into CTSM5.0-FATES-Hydro and evaluate how it impacts plant hydraulics and vegetation growth. Our work shows that the hydraulic modifications prescribed by the hardening scheme are necessary to model realistic vegetation growth in cold climates, in contrast to the default model that simulates almost nonexistent and declining vegetation due to abnormally large water loss through the roots.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Oliver Sonnentag, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Joshua King, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 4201–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, 2022
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Measurements of the properties of the snow and soil were compared to simulations of the Community Land Model to see how well the model represents snow insulation. Simulations underestimated snow thermal conductivity and wintertime soil temperatures. We test two approaches to reduce the transfer of heat through the snowpack and bring simulated soil temperatures closer to measurements, with an alternative parameterisation of snow thermal conductivity being more appropriate.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
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Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Juri Palmtag, Jaroslav Obu, Peter Kuhry, Andreas Richter, Matthias B. Siewert, Niels Weiss, Sebastian Westermann, and Gustaf Hugelius
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4095–4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, 2022
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The northern permafrost region covers 22 % of the Northern Hemisphere and holds almost twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. This paper presents data from 651 soil pedons encompassing more than 6500 samples from 16 different study areas across the northern permafrost region. We use this dataset together with ESA's global land cover dataset to estimate soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage up to 300 cm soil depth, with estimated values of 813 Pg for carbon and 55 Pg for nitrogen.
Jan Nitzbon, Damir Gadylyaev, Steffen Schlüter, John Maximilian Köhne, Guido Grosse, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 3507–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022, 2022
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The microstructure of permafrost soils contains clues to its formation and its preconditioning to future change. We used X-ray computed tomography (CT) to measure the composition of a permafrost drill core from Siberia. By combining CT with laboratory measurements, we determined the the proportions of pore ice, excess ice, minerals, organic matter, and gas contained in the core at an unprecedented resolution. Our work demonstrates the potential of CT to study permafrost properties and processes.
Lutz Beckebanze, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Josefine Walz, Christian Wille, David Holl, Manuel Helbig, Julia Boike, Torsten Sachs, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 19, 3863–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, 2022
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In this study, we present observations of lateral and vertical carbon fluxes from a permafrost-affected study site in the Russian Arctic. From this dataset we estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance for this study site. We show that lateral carbon export has a low impact on the net ecosystem carbon balance during the complete study period (3 months). Nevertheless, our results also show that lateral carbon export can exceed vertical carbon uptake at the beginning of the growing season.
Mahdi André Nakhavali, Lina M. Mercado, Iain P. Hartley, Stephen Sitch, Fernanda V. Cunha, Raffaello di Ponzio, Laynara F. Lugli, Carlos A. Quesada, Kelly M. Andersen, Sarah E. Chadburn, Andy J. Wiltshire, Douglas B. Clark, Gyovanni Ribeiro, Lara Siebert, Anna C. M. Moraes, Jéssica Schmeisk Rosa, Rafael Assis, and José L. Camargo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, 2022
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In tropical ecosystems, the availability of rock-derived elements such as P can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 conditions in areas such as Amazonia remain highly uncertain. We introduced P dynamics and its interactions with the N and P cycles into the JULES model. Our results highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon forest with low-fertility soils.
Niek Jesse Speetjens, George Tanski, Victoria Martin, Julia Wagner, Andreas Richter, Gustaf Hugelius, Chris Boucher, Rachele Lodi, Christian Knoblauch, Boris P. Koch, Urban Wünsch, Hugues Lantuit, and Jorien E. Vonk
Biogeosciences, 19, 3073–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3073-2022, 2022
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Climate change and warming in the Arctic exceed global averages. As a result, permanently frozen soils (permafrost) which store vast quantities of carbon in the form of dead plant material (organic matter) are thawing. Our study shows that as permafrost landscapes degrade, high concentrations of organic matter are released. Partly, this organic matter is degraded rapidly upon release, while another significant fraction enters stream networks and enters the Arctic Ocean.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Elodie Salmon, Fabrice Jégou, Bertrand Guenet, Line Jourdain, Chunjing Qiu, Vladislav Bastrikov, Christophe Guimbaud, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Peylin, Sébastien Gogo, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Mika Aurela, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Jiquan Chen, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Housen Chu, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, David Holl, Janina Klatt, Olaf Kolle, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Annalea Lohila, Lutz Merbold, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Torsten Sachs, and Klaudia Ziemblińska
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2813–2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, 2022
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A methane model that features methane production and transport by plants, the ebullition process and diffusion in soil, oxidation to CO2, and CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere has been embedded in the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model, which includes an explicit representation of northern peatlands. This model, ORCHIDEE-PCH4, was calibrated and evaluated on 14 peatland sites. Results show that the model is sensitive to temperature and substrate availability over the top 75 cm of soil depth.
Stefan Kruse, Simone M. Stuenzi, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Josias Gloy, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2395–2422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, 2022
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We coupled established models for boreal forest (LAVESI) and permafrost dynamics (CryoGrid) in Siberia to investigate interactions of the diverse vegetation layer with permafrost soils. Our tests showed improved active layer depth estimations and newly included species growth according to their species-specific limits. We conclude that the new model system can be applied to simulate boreal forest dynamics and transitions under global warming and disturbances, expanding our knowledge.
Suman Halder, Susanne K. M. Arens, Kai Jensen, Tais W. Dahl, and Philipp Porada
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2325–2343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2325-2022, 2022
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A dynamic vegetation model, designed to estimate potential impacts of early vascular vegetation, namely, lycopsids, on the biogeochemical cycle at a local scale. Lycopsid Model (LYCOm) estimates the productivity and physiological properties of lycopsids across a broad climatic range along with natural selection, which is then utilized to adjudge their weathering potential. It lays the foundation for estimation of their impacts during their long evolutionary history starting from the Ordovician.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Lutz Beckebanze, Zoé Rehder, David Holl, Christian Wille, Charlotta Mirbach, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 19, 1225–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1225-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1225-2022, 2022
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Arctic permafrost landscapes feature many water bodies. In contrast to the terrestrial parts of the landscape, the water bodies release carbon to the atmosphere. We compare carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from small water bodies to the surrounding tundra and find not accounting for the carbon dioxide emissions leads to an overestimation of the tundra uptake by 11 %. Consequently, changes in hydrology and water body distribution may substantially impact the overall carbon budget of the Arctic.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
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This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
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The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Katharina Jentzsch, Julia Boike, and Thomas Foken
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7291–7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, 2021
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Very small CO2 fluxes are measured at night in Arctic regions. If the sensible heat flux is not close to zero under these conditions, the WPL correction will take values on the order of the flux. A special quality control is proposed for these cases.
David Olefeldt, Mikael Hovemyr, McKenzie A. Kuhn, David Bastviken, Theodore J. Bohn, John Connolly, Patrick Crill, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sarah A. Finkelstein, Hélène Genet, Guido Grosse, Lorna I. Harris, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, Gustaf Hugelius, Ryan Hutchins, Sari Juutinen, Mark J. Lara, Avni Malhotra, Kristen Manies, A. David McGuire, Susan M. Natali, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Aleksi Räsänen, Christina Schädel, Oliver Sonnentag, Maria Strack, Suzanne E. Tank, Claire Treat, Ruth K. Varner, Tarmo Virtanen, Rebecca K. Warren, and Jennifer D. Watts
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5127–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021, 2021
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Wetlands, lakes, and rivers are important sources of the greenhouse gas methane to the atmosphere. To understand current and future methane emissions from northern regions, we need maps that show the extent and distribution of specific types of wetlands, lakes, and rivers. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD) provides maps of five wetland types, seven lake types, and three river types for northern regions and will improve our ability to predict future methane emissions.
Patryk Łakomiec, Jutta Holst, Thomas Friborg, Patrick Crill, Niklas Rakos, Natascha Kljun, Per-Ola Olsson, Lars Eklundh, Andreas Persson, and Janne Rinne
Biogeosciences, 18, 5811–5830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5811-2021, 2021
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Methane emission from the subarctic mire with heterogeneous permafrost status was measured for the years 2014–2016. Lower methane emission was measured from the palsa mire sector while the thawing wet sector emitted more. Both sectors have a similar annual pattern with a gentle rise during spring and a decrease during autumn. The highest emission was observed in the late summer. Winter emissions were positive during the measurement period and have a significant impact on the annual budgets.
Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Biogeosciences, 18, 5767–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, 2021
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This study shows that the introduction of a multi-layer snow scheme in the LPJ-GUESS DGVM improved simulations of high-latitude soil temperature dynamics and permafrost extent compared to observations. In addition, these improvements led to shifts in carbon fluxes that contrasted within and outside of the permafrost region. Our results show that a realistic snow scheme is essential to accurately simulate snow–soil–vegetation relationships and carbon–climate feedbacks.
Verónica Pancotto, David Holl, Julio Escobar, María Florencia Castagnani, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 18, 4817–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, 2021
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We investigated the response of a wetland plant community to elevated temperature conditions in a cushion bog on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. We measured carbon dioxide fluxes at experimentally warmed plots and at control plots. Warmed plant communities sequestered between 55 % and 85 % less carbon dioxide than untreated control cushions over the main growing season. Our results suggest that even moderate future warming could decrease the carbon sink function of austral cushion bogs.
Kyle B. Delwiche, Sara Helen Knox, Avni Malhotra, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Gavin McNicol, Sarah Feron, Zutao Ouyang, Dario Papale, Carlo Trotta, Eleonora Canfora, You-Wei Cheah, Danielle Christianson, Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, David P. Billesbach, Gil Bohrer, Rosvel Bracho, Nina Buchmann, David I. Campbell, Gerardo Celis, Jiquan Chen, Weinan Chen, Housen Chu, Higo J. Dalmagro, Sigrid Dengel, Ankur R. Desai, Matteo Detto, Han Dolman, Elke Eichelmann, Eugenie Euskirchen, Daniela Famulari, Kathrin Fuchs, Mathias Goeckede, Sébastien Gogo, Mangaliso J. Gondwe, Jordan P. Goodrich, Pia Gottschalk, Scott L. Graham, Martin Heimann, Manuel Helbig, Carole Helfter, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, David Hollinger, Lukas Hörtnagl, Hiroki Iwata, Adrien Jacotot, Gerald Jurasinski, Minseok Kang, Kuno Kasak, John King, Janina Klatt, Franziska Koebsch, Ken W. Krauss, Derrick Y. F. Lai, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Giovanni Manca, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Trofim Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Bhaskar Mitra, Timothy H. Morin, Eiko Nemitz, Mats B. Nilsson, Shuli Niu, Walter C. Oechel, Patricia Y. Oikawa, Keisuke Ono, Matthias Peichl, Olli Peltola, Michele L. Reba, Andrew D. Richardson, William Riley, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Camilo Rey Sanchez, Edward A. Schuur, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Oliver Sonnentag, Jed P. Sparks, Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens, Cove Sturtevant, Ryan C. Sullivan, Daphne J. Szutu, Jonathan E. Thom, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Jessica Turner, Masahito Ueyama, Alex C. Valach, Rodrigo Vargas, Andrej Varlagin, Alma Vazquez-Lule, Joseph G. Verfaillie, Timo Vesala, George L. Vourlitis, Eric J. Ward, Christian Wille, Georg Wohlfahrt, Guan Xhuan Wong, Zhen Zhang, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, and Robert B. Jackson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3607–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, 2021
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas, yet we lack knowledge about its global emissions and drivers. We present FLUXNET-CH4, a new global collection of methane measurements and a critical resource for the research community. We use FLUXNET-CH4 data to quantify the seasonality of methane emissions from freshwater wetlands, finding that methane seasonality varies strongly with latitude. Our new database and analysis will improve wetland model accuracy and inform greenhouse gas budgets.
Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Lennart Nilsen, Hans Tømmervik, and Elisabeth J. Cooper
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3593–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3593-2021, 2021
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Satellites provide a global overview of Earth's ecosystems, but they have coarse resolutions and low revisit times. Small-scale vegetation patterns and sudden shifts in plant growth can easily be missed. In this paper, we show how to fill these gaps with vegetation indices obtained with ordinary time-lapse cameras deployed across a valley on Svalbard. We show how to adjust for unwanted camera movement and that vegetation indices from ordinary cameras compare well to those used by satellites.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
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It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Lydia Stolpmann, Caroline Coch, Anne Morgenstern, Julia Boike, Michael Fritz, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring, Yury Dvornikov, Birgit Heim, Josefine Lenz, Amy Larsen, Katey Walter Anthony, Benjamin Jones, Karen Frey, and Guido Grosse
Biogeosciences, 18, 3917–3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, 2021
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Our new database summarizes DOC concentrations of 2167 water samples from 1833 lakes in permafrost regions across the Arctic to provide insights into linkages between DOC and environment. We found increasing lake DOC concentration with decreasing permafrost extent and higher DOC concentrations in boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. Our study shows that DOC concentration depends on the environmental properties of a lake, especially permafrost extent, ecoregion, and vegetation.
Juditha Undine Schmidt, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Florence Magnin, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021
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This study presents rock surface temperatures (RSTs) of steep high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard from 2016 to 2020. The field data show that coastal cliffs are characterized by warmer RSTs than inland locations during winter seasons. By running model simulations, we analyze factors leading to that effect, calculate the surface energy balance and simulate different future scenarios. Both field data and model results can contribute to a further understanding of RST in high-Arctic rock walls.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
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Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Zhen Zhang, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Katherine Jensen, Kyle McDonald, Gustaf Hugelius, Thomas Gumbricht, Mark Carroll, Catherine Prigent, Annett Bartsch, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2001–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2001-2021, 2021
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The spatiotemporal distribution of wetlands is one of the important and yet uncertain factors determining the time and locations of methane fluxes. The Wetland Area and Dynamics for Methane Modeling (WAD2M) dataset describes the global data product used to quantify the areal dynamics of natural wetlands and how global wetlands are changing in response to climate.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Georg Pointner, Annett Bartsch, Yury A. Dvornikov, and Alexei V. Kouraev
The Cryosphere, 15, 1907–1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1907-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1907-2021, 2021
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This study presents strong new indications that regions of anomalously low backscatter in C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery of ice of Lake Neyto in northwestern Siberia are related to strong emissions of natural gas. Spatio-temporal dynamics and potential scattering and formation mechanisms are assessed. It is suggested that exploiting the spatial and temporal properties of Sentinel-1 SAR data may be beneficial for the identification of similar phenomena in other Arctic lakes.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
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Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 4611–4626, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, 2020
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A sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) is developed as novel progress in modeling permafrost thaw and its impacts under the warming climate. The modeled permafrost degradation with sub-grid excess ice follows the pathway that continuous permafrost transforms into discontinuous permafrost before it disappears, including surface subsidence and talik formation, which are highly permafrost-relevant landscape changes excluded from most land models.
Arthur Monhonval, Sophie Opfergelt, Elisabeth Mauclet, Benoît Pereira, Aubry Vandeuren, Guido Grosse, Lutz Schirrmeister, Matthias Fuchs, Peter Kuhry, and Jens Strauss
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-359, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-359, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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With global warming, ice-rich permafrost soils expose organic carbon to microbial degradation and unlock mineral elements as well. Interactions between mineral elements and organic carbon may enhance or mitigate microbial degradation. Here, we provide a large scale ice-rich permafrost mineral concentrations assessment and estimates of mineral element stocks in those deposits. Si is the most abundant mineral element and Fe and Al are present in the same order of magnitude as organic carbon.
Zoé Rehder, Anne Laura Niederdrenk, Lars Kaleschke, and Lars Kutzbach
The Cryosphere, 14, 4201–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4201-2020, 2020
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To better understand the connection between sea ice and permafrost, we investigate how sea ice interacts with the atmosphere over the adjacent landmass in the Laptev Sea region using a climate model. Melt of sea ice in spring is mainly controlled by the atmosphere; in fall, feedback mechanisms are important. Throughout summer, lower-than-usual sea ice leads to more southward transport of heat and moisture, but these links from sea ice to the atmosphere over land are weak.
Roger Seco, Thomas Holst, Mikkel Sillesen Matzen, Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen, Tao Li, Tihomir Simin, Joachim Jansen, Patrick Crill, Thomas Friborg, Janne Rinne, and Riikka Rinnan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13399–13416, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13399-2020, 2020
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Northern ecosystems exchange climate-relevant trace gases with the atmosphere, including volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We measured VOC fluxes from a subarctic permafrost-free fen and its adjacent lake in northern Sweden. The graminoid-dominated fen emitted mainly isoprene during the peak of the growing season, with a pronounced response to increasing temperatures stronger than assumed by biogenic emission models. The lake was a sink of acetone and acetaldehyde during both periods measured.
Eleanor J. Burke, Yu Zhang, and Gerhard Krinner
The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020
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Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
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This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Marie-Laure Roussel, Florentin Lemonnier, Christophe Genthon, and Gerhard Krinner
The Cryosphere, 14, 2715–2727, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2715-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic precipitation is evaluated against space radar data in the most recent climate model intercomparison CMIP6 and reanalysis ERA5. The seasonal cycle is mostly well reproduced, but relative errors are higher in areas of complex topography, particularly in the higher-resolution models. At continental and regional scales all results are biased high, with no significant progress in the more recent models. Predicting Antarctic contribution to sea level still requires model improvements.
Inge Grünberg, Evan J. Wilcox, Simon Zwieback, Philip Marsh, and Julia Boike
Biogeosciences, 17, 4261–4279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, 2020
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Based on topsoil temperature data for different vegetation types at a low Arctic tundra site, we found large small-scale variability. Winter temperatures were strongly influenced by vegetation through its effects on snow. Summer temperatures were similar below most vegetation types and not consistently related to late summer permafrost thaw depth. Given that vegetation type defines the relationship between winter and summer soil temperature and thaw depth, it controls permafrost vulnerability.
Félix Pellerin, Philipp Porada, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-55, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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While several biological processes are similar among terrestrial and marine ecosystems, their representation in Earth System Models may differ. By comparing the terrestrial and marine modules of 17 Earth System Models, we found multiple evidences of unjustified differences in processes representation. These inconsistencies may lead to wrong predictions about the role of biosphere in the climate system and skew our perception of the relative influence of each ecosystem on climate.
Michael Kern, Robert Cullen, Bruno Berruti, Jerome Bouffard, Tania Casal, Mark R. Drinkwater, Antonio Gabriele, Arnaud Lecuyot, Michael Ludwig, Rolv Midthassel, Ignacio Navas Traver, Tommaso Parrinello, Gerhard Ressler, Erik Andersson, Cristina Martin-Puig, Ole Andersen, Annett Bartsch, Sinead Farrell, Sara Fleury, Simon Gascoin, Amandine Guillot, Angelika Humbert, Eero Rinne, Andrew Shepherd, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and John Yackel
The Cryosphere, 14, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, 2020
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The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter will provide high-resolution sea ice thickness and land ice elevation measurements and the capability to determine the properties of snow cover on ice to serve operational products and services of direct relevance to the polar regions. This paper describes the mission objectives, identifies the key contributions the CRISTAL mission will make, and presents a concept – as far as it is already defined – for the mission payload.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
David Holl, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 17, 2853–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2853-2020, 2020
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We measured greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes at a bog site in northwestern Germany that has been heavily degraded by peat mining. During the 2-year investigation period, half of the area was still being mined, whereas the remaining half had been rewetted shortly before. We could therefore estimate the impact of rewetting on GHG flux dynamics. Rewetting had a considerable effect on the annual GHG balance and led to increased (up to 84 %) methane and decreased (up to 40 %) carbon dioxide release.
Kanayim Teshebaeva, Ko J. van Huissteden, Alexander V. Puzanov, Dmitry N. Balykin, Anton I. Sinitsky, and Nelley Kovalevskaya
Proc. IAHS, 382, 183–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-183-2020, 2020
Didier G. Leibovici, Shaun Quegan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Maria Val Martin, Mathieu Guimberteau, Arsène Druel, Dan Zhu, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 17, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, 2020
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Analysing the impact of environmental changes due to climate change, e.g. geographical spread of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) and agriculture crop modelling, may require land surface modelling (LSM) to predict future land surface conditions. There are multiple LSMs to choose from. The paper proposes a multivariate spatio-temporal data science method to understand the inherent uncertainties in four LSMs and the variations between them in Nordic areas for the net primary production.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Pierre Regnier, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 507–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, 2020
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In this second part of the study, we performed simulations of the carbon and water budget of the Lena catchment with the land surface model ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK, enabled to simulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production in soils and its transport and fate in high-latitude inland waters. We compare simulations using this model to existing data sources to show that it is capable of reproducing dissolved carbon fluxes of potentially great importance for the future of the global permafrost.
Jaroslav Obu, Sebastian Westermann, Gonçalo Vieira, Andrey Abramov, Megan Ruby Balks, Annett Bartsch, Filip Hrbáček, Andreas Kääb, and Miguel Ramos
The Cryosphere, 14, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, 2020
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Little is known about permafrost in the Antarctic outside of the few research stations. We used a simple equilibrium permafrost model to estimate permafrost temperatures in the whole Antarctic. The lowest permafrost temperature on Earth is −36 °C in the Queen Elizabeth Range in the Transantarctic Mountains. Temperatures are commonly between −23 and −18 °C in mountainous areas rising above the Antarctic Ice Sheet, between −14 and −8 °C in coastal areas, and up to 0 °C on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
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Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Peter Kuhry, Jiří Bárta, Daan Blok, Bo Elberling, Samuel Faucherre, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian J. Jørgensen, Andreas Richter, Hana Šantrůčková, and Niels Weiss
Biogeosciences, 17, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-361-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-361-2020, 2020
Altug Ekici, Hanna Lee, David M. Lawrence, Sean C. Swenson, and Catherine Prigent
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5291–5300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019, 2019
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Ice-rich permafrost thaw can create expanding thermokarst lakes as well as shrinking large wetlands. Such processes can have major biogeochemical implications and feedbacks to climate systems by altering the pathways and rates of permafrost carbon release. We developed a new model parameterization that allows a direct representation of surface water dynamics with subsidence. Our results show increased surface water fractions around western Siberian plains and northeastern territories of Canada.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4717–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, 2019
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In this paper we address one of the big challenges in snow hydrology, namely the accurate simulation of the seasonal snowpack in ungauged regions. We do this by assimilating satellite observations of snow cover into a modelling framework. Importantly (and a novelty of the paper), we include a clustering approach that permits highly efficient ensemble simulations. Efficiency gains and dependency on purely global datasets, means that this method can be applied over large areas anywhere on Earth.
Florence Magnin, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, Paula Hilger, and Reginald L. Hermanns
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1019–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, 2019
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This study proposes the first permafrost (i.e. ground with temperature permanently < 0 °C) map covering the steep rock slopes of Norway. It was created by using rock temperature data collected at the near surface of 25 rock walls spread across the country between 2010 and 2018. The map shows that permafrost mostly exists above 1300–1400 m a.s.l. in southern Norway and close to sea level in northern Norway. The results have strong potential for the study of rock wall sliding and failure.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019
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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Sebastian Westermann, and Kjetil Schanke Aas
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-230, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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We develop a sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) by adding three landunits to the original CLM sub-grid hierarchy, in order to prescribe three different excess ice conditions in one grid cell. Single-grid simulations verify the potential of the model development on better projecting excess ice melt in a warming climate. Global simulations recommend the proper way of applying the model development with the existing excess ice dataset.
David Holl, Verónica Pancotto, Adrian Heger, Sergio Jose Camargo, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 16, 3397–3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3397-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3397-2019, 2019
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We present 2 years of eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux data from two Southern Hemisphere peatlands on Tierra del Fuego. One of the investigated sites is a type of bog exclusive to the Southern Hemisphere, which is dominated by vascular, cushion-forming plants and is particularly understudied. One result of this study is that these cushion bogs apparently are highly productive in comparison to Northern and Southern Hemisphere moss-dominated bogs.
Olli Peltola, Timo Vesala, Yao Gao, Olle Räty, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Bogdan Chojnicki, Ankur R. Desai, Albertus J. Dolman, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Mathias Göckede, Manuel Helbig, Elyn Humphreys, Robert B. Jackson, Georg Jocher, Fortunat Joos, Janina Klatt, Sara H. Knox, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Sebastian Lienert, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Daniel F. Nadeau, Mats B. Nilsson, Walter C. Oechel, Matthias Peichl, Thomas Pypker, William Quinton, Janne Rinne, Torsten Sachs, Mateusz Samson, Hans Peter Schmid, Oliver Sonnentag, Christian Wille, Donatella Zona, and Tuula Aalto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1263–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, 2019
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Here we develop a monthly gridded dataset of northern (> 45 N) wetland methane (CH4) emissions. The data product is derived using a random forest machine-learning technique and eddy covariance CH4 fluxes from 25 wetland sites. Annual CH4 emissions from these wetlands calculated from the derived data product are comparable to prior studies focusing on these areas. This product is an independent estimate of northern wetland CH4 emissions and hence could be used, e.g. for process model evaluation.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, 2019
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Few Earth system models represent permafrost soil biogeochemistry, contributing to uncertainty in estimating its response and that of the planet to warming. Because the permafrost contains over double the carbon in the present atmosphere, its fate as it is
unlockedby warming is globally significant. One way it can be mobilised is into rivers, the sea, or the atmosphere: a vector previously ignored in climate modelling. We present a model scheme for resolving this vector at a global scale.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Adam Hastie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, 2019
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We present a model that can simulate the dynamics of peatland area extent and the vertical buildup of peat. The model is validated across a range of northern peatland sites and over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). It is able to reproduce the spatial extent of northern peatlands and peat carbon accumulation over the Holocene.
Norman Rößger, Christian Wille, David Holl, Mathias Göckede, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 16, 2591–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2591-2019, 2019
Pascale Braconnot, Dan Zhu, Olivier Marti, and Jérôme Servonnat
Clim. Past, 15, 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-997-2019, 2019
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This study discusses a simulation of the last 6000 years realized with a climate model in which the vegetation and carbon cycle are fully interactive. The long-term southward shift in Northern Hemisphere tree line and Afro-Asian monsoon rain are reproduced. The results show substantial change in tree composition with time over Eurasia and the role of trace gases in the recent past. They highlight the limitations due to model setup and multiple preindustrial vegetation states.
Philipp Porada, Alexandra Tamm, Jose Raggio, Yafang Cheng, Axel Kleidon, Ulrich Pöschl, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 16, 2003–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, 2019
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The trace gases NO and HONO are crucial for atmospheric chemistry. It has been suggested that biological soil crusts in drylands contribute substantially to global NO and HONO emissions, based on empirical upscaling of laboratory and field observations. Here we apply an alternative, process-based modeling approach to predict these emissions. We find that biological soil crusts emit globally significant amounts of NO and HONO, which also vary depending on the type of biological soil crust.
Efrén López-Blanco, Jean-François Exbrayat, Magnus Lund, Torben R. Christensen, Mikkel P. Tamstorf, Darren Slevin, Gustaf Hugelius, Anthony A. Bloom, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 233–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-233-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-233-2019, 2019
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The terrestrial CO2 exchange in Arctic ecosystems plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and is particularly sensitive to the ongoing warming experienced in recent years. To improve our understanding of the atmosphere–biosphere interplay, we evaluated the state of the terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a promising data assimilation system in the first 15 years of the 21st century. This is crucial when it comes to making predictions about the future state of the carbon cycle.
Tim Eckhardt, Christian Knoblauch, Lars Kutzbach, David Holl, Gillian Simpson, Evgeny Abakumov, and Eva-Maria Pfeiffer
Biogeosciences, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1543-2019, 2019
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We quantified the contribution of individual components governing the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and how these fluxes respond to environmental changes in a drained and water-saturated site in the polygonal tundra of northeast Siberia. This work finds both sites as a sink for atmospheric CO2 during the growing season, but sink strengths varied between the sites. Furthermore, it was shown that soil hydrological conditions were one of the key drivers for differing CO2 fluxes between the sites.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Westermann, Léo Martin, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, 2019
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We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
David Holl, Christian Wille, Torsten Sachs, Peter Schreiber, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Lutz Beckebanze, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, Irina Fedorova, Dimitry Y. Bolshianov, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 221–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, 2019
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We present a multi-annual time series of land–atmosphere carbon dioxide fluxes measured in situ with the eddy covariance technique in the Siberian Arctic. In arctic permafrost regions, climate–carbon feedbacks are amplified. Therefore, increased efforts to better represent these regions in global climate models have been made in recent years. Up to now, the available database of in situ measurements from the Arctic was biased towards Alaska and records from the Eurasian Arctic were scarce.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
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Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Julien Beaumet, Gerhard Krinner, Michel Déqué, Rein Haarsma, and Laurent Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 321–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-321-2019, 2019
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Oceanic surface conditions coming from coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate models bear considerable biases over the historical climate. We review and present new methods for bias correcting sea surface temperatures and sea-ice concentration coming from such models in order to use them as boundary conditions for atmospheric-only GCMs. For sea ice, we propose a new analogue method which allows us to reproduce more physically consistent future bias-corrected sea-ice concentration maps.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
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Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Isabelle Gouttevin, Moritz Langer, Henning Löwe, Julia Boike, Martin Proksch, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018
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Snow insulates the ground from the cold air in the Arctic winter, majorly affecting permafrost. This insulation depends on snow characteristics and is poorly quantified. Here, we characterize it at a carbon-rich permafrost site, using a recent technique that retrieves the 3-D structure of snow and its thermal properties. We adapt a snowpack model enabling the simulation of this insulation over a whole winter. We estimate that local snow variations induce up to a 6 °C spread in soil temperatures.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Matthieu Guimberteau, Xuhui Wang, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Jan Polcher, Feng Zhou, Hyungjun Kim, and other China-Trend-Stream project members
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5463–5484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, 2018
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Simulations in China were performed in ORCHIDEE driven by different forcing datasets: GSWP3, PGF, CRU-NCEP, and WFDEI. Simulated soil moisture was compared to several datasets to evaluate the ability of ORCHIDEE in reproducing soil moisture dynamics. Results showed that ORCHIDEE soil moisture coincided well with other datasets in wet areas and in non-irrigated areas. It suggested that the ORCHIDEE-MICT was suitable for further hydrological studies in China.
Stefano Manzoni, Petr Čapek, Philipp Porada, Martin Thurner, Mattias Winterdahl, Christian Beer, Volker Brüchert, Jan Frouz, Anke M. Herrmann, Björn D. Lindahl, Steve W. Lyon, Hana Šantrůčková, Giulia Vico, and Danielle Way
Biogeosciences, 15, 5929–5949, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018, 2018
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Carbon fixed by plants and phytoplankton through photosynthesis is ultimately stored in soils and sediments or released to the atmosphere during decomposition of dead biomass. Carbon-use efficiency is a useful metric to quantify the fate of carbon – higher efficiency means higher storage and lower release to the atmosphere. Here we summarize many definitions of carbon-use efficiency and study how this metric changes from organisms to ecosystems and from terrestrial to aquatic environments.
Christine Kroisleitner, Annett Bartsch, and Helena Bergstedt
The Cryosphere, 12, 2349–2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2349-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2349-2018, 2018
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Knowledge about permafrost extent is required with respect to climate change. We used borehole temperature records from across the Arctic for the assessment of surface status information (frozen or unfrozen) derived from space-borne microwave sensors for permafrost extent mapping. The comparison to mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the coldest sensor depth revealed that not only extent but also temperature can be obtained from C-band-derived surface state with a residual error of 2.22 °C.
Wei Li, Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Daniel Goll, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, and Albert Jornet-Puig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2249–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2249-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2249-2018, 2018
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We implemented four major lignocellulosic bioenergy crops in ORCHIDEE. We added new PFTs, did new parameterizations of photosynthesis, carbon allocation, and phenology based on a compilation of field measurements, and added a specific harvest module. The resulting ORCHIDEE-MICT-BIOENERGY model is evaluated at 296 locations where field measurements of harvested biomass are available, and the new model can generally reproduce the global bioenergy crop yield observations.
Juri Palmtag, Stefanie Cable, Hanne H. Christiansen, Gustaf Hugelius, and Peter Kuhry
The Cryosphere, 12, 1735–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1735-2018, 2018
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This study aims to improve the previous soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage estimates for the Zackenberg area (NE Greenland) that were based on a land cover classification approach, by using geomorphological upscaling. The landform-based approach more correctly constrains the depositional areas in alluvial fans and deltas with high SOC and TN storage. This research emphasises the need to consider geomorphology when assessing SOC pools in mountain permafrost landscapes.
Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 15, 2691–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, 2018
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We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Julia Boike, Inge Juszak, Stephan Lange, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Pier Paul Overduin, Kurt Roth, Olaf Ippisch, Niko Bornemann, Lielle Stern, Isabelle Gouttevin, Ernst Hauber, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 355–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, 2018
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A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on meteorology, energy balance components, surface and subsurface observations. This paper presents the data set, instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control. The data show that mean annual, summer and winter soil temperature data from shallow to deeper depths have been warming over the period of record, indicating the degradation and loss of permafrost at this site.
Christian Beer, Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Matthias Brakebusch
The Cryosphere, 12, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-741-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-741-2018, 2018
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Idealized model experiments demonstrate that, in addition to a gradual climate change, changing daily to weekly variability of meteorological variables and extreme events will also have an impact on mean annual ground temperature in high-latitude permafrost areas. In fact, results of the land surface model experiments show that the projected increase of variability of meteorological variables leads to cooler permafrost soil in contrast to an otherwise soil warming in response to climate change.
Matthias Fuchs, Guido Grosse, Jens Strauss, Frank Günther, Mikhail Grigoriev, Georgy M. Maximov, and Gustaf Hugelius
Biogeosciences, 15, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-953-2018, 2018
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Our paper investigates soil organic carbon and nitrogen in permafrost soils on Sobo-Sise Island and Bykovsky Peninsula in the north of eastern Siberia. We collected and analysed permafrost soil cores and upscaled carbon and nitrogen stocks to landscape level. We found large amounts of carbon and nitrogen stored in these frozen soils, reconstructed sedimentation rates and estimated the potential increase in organic carbon availability if permafrost continues to thaw and active layer deepens.
Simon Zwieback, Steven V. Kokelj, Frank Günther, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 12, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, 2018
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We analyse elevation losses at thaw slumps, at which icy sediments are exposed. As ice requires a large amount of energy to melt, one would expect that mass wasting is governed by the available energy. However, we observe very little mass wasting in June, despite the ample energy supply. Also, in summer, mass wasting is not always energy limited. This highlights the importance of other processes, such as the formation of a protective veneer, in shaping mass wasting at sub-seasonal scales.
Mahdi Nakhavali, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ronny Lauerwald, Jing Tang, Sarah Chadburn, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Anna Harper, David Walmsley, Matthias Peichl, and Bert Gielen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, 2018
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In order to provide a better understanding of the Earth's carbon cycle, we need a model that represents the whole continuum from atmosphere to land and into the ocean. In this study we include in JULES a representation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. Our results show that the model is able to reproduce the DOC concentration and controlling processes, including leaching to the riverine system, which is fundamental for integrating the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem.
Malte Winther, David Balslev-Harder, Søren Christensen, Anders Priemé, Bo Elberling, Eric Crosson, and Thomas Blunier
Biogeosciences, 15, 767–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-767-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-767-2018, 2018
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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important and strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and part of climate. N2O is produced by microbes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The properties of each specific molecule can be used to determine the source. We implemented continuous measurements of N2O during incubation of denitrifying bacteria and believe that similar experiments will lead to a better understanding of N2O turnover and on the biotic mechanisms behind greenhouse gas exchange of the globe.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Mika Aurela, Christian Bernhofer, Christian Brümmer, Syndonia Bret-Harte, Housen Chu, Jiquan Chen, Ankur R. Desai, Jiří Dušek, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Thomas Friborg, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sébastien Gogo, Thomas Grünwald, Birger U. Hansen, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Miriam Hurkuck, Gerard Kiely, Janina Klatt, Lars Kutzbach, Chloé Largeron, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Magnus Lund, Peter M. Lafleur, Xuefei Li, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Mats B. Nilsson, Janusz Olejnik, Mikaell Ottosson-Löfvenius, Walter Oechel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Norbert Pirk, Olli Peltola, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Daniel Rasse, Janne Rinne, Gaius Shaver, Hans Peter Schmid, Matteo Sottocornola, Rainer Steinbrecher, Torsten Sachs, Marek Urbaniak, Donatella Zona, and Klaudia Ziemblinska
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, 2018
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Northern peatlands store large amount of soil carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We implemented peatland hydrological and carbon accumulation processes into the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model was evaluated against EC measurements from 30 northern peatland sites. The model generally well reproduced the spatial gradient and temporal variations in GPP and NEE at these sites. Water table depth was not well predicted but had only small influence on simulated NEE.
Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Julia Boike, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 12, 247–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate how snow cover data from satellites can be used to constrain estimates of snow distributions at sites in the Arctic. In this effort, we make use of data assimilation to combine the information contained in the snow cover data with a simple snow model. By comparing our snow distribution estimates to independent observations, we find that this method performs favorably. Being modular, this method could be applied to other areas as a component of a larger reanalysis system.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Ye Huang, Chao Yue, Sarah Dantec-Nédélec, Catherine Ottlé, Albert Jornet-Puig, Ana Bastos, Pierre Laurent, Daniel Goll, Simon Bowring, Jinfeng Chang, Bertrand Guenet, Marwa Tifafi, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Agnès Ducharne, Fuxing Wang, Tao Wang, Xuhui Wang, Yilong Wang, Zun Yin, Ronny Lauerwald, Emilie Joetzjer, Chunjing Qiu, Hyungjun Kim, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 121–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, 2018
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Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out relevant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module.
Arsène Druel, Philippe Peylin, Gerhard Krinner, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Anna Peregon, Vladislav Bastrikov, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4693–4722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, 2017
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To improve the simulation of vegetation–climate feedbacks at high latitudes, three new circumpolar vegetation types were added in the ORCHIDEE land surface model: bryophytes (mosses) and lichens, Arctic shrubs, and Arctic grasses. This article is an introduction to the modification of vegetation distribution and physical behaviour, implying for example lower productivity, roughness, and higher winter albedo or freshwater discharge in the Arctic Ocean.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Mathilde Jammet, Sigrid Dengel, Ernesto Kettner, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Martin Wik, Patrick Crill, and Thomas Friborg
Biogeosciences, 14, 5189–5216, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5189-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5189-2017, 2017
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The quantitative importance of northern lakes in terrestrial carbon budgets is uncertain, as year-round observations of carbon fluxes are rare. We measured CH4 and CO2 fluxes from a subarctic lake and nearby fen during 2.5 years with one eddy covariance system. We identified drivers of seasonal variability in lake fluxes and show the importance of winter and spring for annual carbon exchange in both ecosystems. The lake as a source of atmospheric carbon partially compensates the fen carbon sink.
Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Fabienne Maignan, Albert Jornet-Puig, Jordi Sardans, Aurelie Violette, Shushi Peng, Yan Sun, Marko Kvakic, Matthieu Guimberteau, Bertrand Guenet, Soenke Zaehle, Josep Penuelas, Ivan Janssens, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3745–3770, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017, 2017
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We describe a representation of the terrestrial phosphorus cycle for the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model is able to reproduce the observed shift from nitrogen to phosphorus limited net primary productivity along a soil formation chronosequence in Hawaii, as well as the contrasting responses of net primary productivity to nutrient addition. However, the simulated nutrient use efficiencies are lower, as observed primarily due to biases in the nutrient content and turnover of woody biomass.
Efrén López-Blanco, Magnus Lund, Mathew Williams, Mikkel P. Tamstorf, Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen, Jean-François Exbrayat, Birger U. Hansen, and Torben R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 14, 4467–4483, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4467-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4467-2017, 2017
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An improvement in our process-based understanding of CO2 exchanges in the Arctic and their climate sensitivity is critical. With continued warming temperatures and longer growing seasons, tundra systems will likely increase rates of C cycling, although shifts in sink strength could take place, challenging the forecast of upcoming C states. In this context, we investigated the functional responses of C exchange to environmental characteristics across 8 consecutive years in West Greenland.
Wenxin Zhang, Per-Erik Jansson, and Bo Elberling
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-382, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-382, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Jorien E. Vonk, Tommaso Tesi, Lisa Bröder, Henry Holmstrand, Gustaf Hugelius, August Andersson, Oleg Dudarev, Igor Semiletov, and Örjan Gustafsson
The Cryosphere, 11, 1879–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1879-2017, 2017
Sabrina Marx, Katharina Anders, Sofia Antonova, Inga Beck, Julia Boike, Philip Marsh, Moritz Langer, and Bernhard Höfle
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Global climate warming causes permafrost to warm and thaw, and, consequently, to release the carbon into the atmosphere. Terrestrial laser scanning is evaluated and current methods are extended in the context of monitoring subsidence in Arctic permafrost regions. The extracted information is important to gain a deeper understanding of permafrost-related subsidence processes and provides highly accurate ground-truth data which is necessary for further developing area-wide monitoring methods.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Norbert Pirk, Jakob Sievers, Jordan Mertes, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Mikhail Mastepanov, and Torben R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 14, 3157–3169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3157-2017, 2017
Sebastian Westermann, Maria Peter, Moritz Langer, Georg Schwamborn, Lutz Schirrmeister, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 11, 1441–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, 2017
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We demonstrate a remote-sensing-based scheme estimating the evolution of ground temperature and active layer thickness by means of a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ observations from the Lena River delta in Siberia indicates that the model is generally capable of reproducing the annual temperature regime and seasonal thawing of the ground. The approach could hence be a first step towards remote detection of ground thermal conditions in permafrost areas.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Sebastian F. Zastruzny, Bo Elberling, Lars Nielsen, and Karsten H. Jensen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-97, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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The hydrological regime in the arctic will change as the climate conditions change and the release and associated transport of nutrients will also be affected. In this study we analyze water flow and tracer transport along a sloping transect in Disko Island in Greenland. The results suggest that the movement of dissolved nitrogen compounds such as nitrate, being released along the slope in consequence of permafrost thawing, can quickly influence nitrogen cycling at the end of the slope.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
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Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Graham L. Gilbert, Stefanie Cable, Christine Thiel, Hanne H. Christiansen, and Bo Elberling
The Cryosphere, 11, 1265–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1265-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1265-2017, 2017
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We reconstruct the Holocene development of the Zackenberg River delta (northeast Greenland) using a combination of sedimentology, cryostratigraphy, and geochronology. We distinguish four major depositional environments and identify three cryofacies. We apply the principles of cryostratigraphy to infer the aggradational history of permafrost. This paper contains an archive of ground ice in epigenetic permafrost in northeast Greenland.
Philipp Porada, Ulrich Pöschl, Axel Kleidon, Christian Beer, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 14, 1593–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, 2017
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Lichens and bryophytes have been shown to release nitrous oxide, which is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone-depleting agent. Here we apply a process-based computer model of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, to estimate growth and respiration of the organisms. By relating respiration to nitrous oxide release, we simulate global nitrous oxide emissions of 0.27 (0.19–0.35) Tg yr−1. Moreover, we quantify different sources of uncertainty in nitrous oxide emission rates.
Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, and Altug Ekici
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, 2017
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There is a large amount of relatively inert organic carbon locked into permafrost soils. In a warming climate the permafrost will thaw and this organic carbon will become vulnerable to decomposition. This process is not typically included within Earth system models (ESMs). This paper describes the development of a vertically resolved soil organic carbon decomposition model which, in the future, can be included within the UKESM to quantify the response of the climate to permafrost carbon loss.
Barbara Widhalm, Annett Bartsch, Marina Leibman, and Artem Khomutov
The Cryosphere, 11, 483–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-483-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-483-2017, 2017
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The active layer above the permafrost, which seasonally thaws during summer, is an important parameter for monitoring the state of permafrost. Its thickness is typically measured locally. The relationship between active-layer thickness (ALT) and X-band SAR backscatter of TerraSAR-X has been investigated in order to explore the possibility of delineating ALT with continuous and larger spatial coverage.
Sonja Kaiser, Mathias Göckede, Karel Castro-Morales, Christian Knoblauch, Altug Ekici, Thomas Kleinen, Sebastian Zubrzycki, Torsten Sachs, Christian Wille, and Christian Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, 2017
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A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is presented. It was developed within a global land surface scheme and evaluated at a polygonal tundra site in Samoylov, Russia. The calculated methane emissions show fair agreement with field data and capture detailed differences between the explicitly modelled gas transport processes and in the gas dynamics under varying soil water and temperature conditions during seasons and on different microsites.
Amund F. Borge, Sebastian Westermann, Ingvild Solheim, and Bernd Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 11, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1-2017, 2017
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Palsas and peat plateaus are permafrost landforms in subarctic mires which constitute sensitive ecosystems with strong significance for vegetation, wildlife, hydrology and carbon cycle. We have systematically mapped the occurrence of palsas and peat plateaus in northern Norway by interpretation of aerial images from the 1950s until today. The results show that about half of the area of palsas and peat plateaus has disappeared due to lateral erosion and melting of ground ice in the last 50 years.
Helene Hoffmann, Rasmus Jensen, Anton Thomsen, Hector Nieto, Jesper Rasmussen, and Thomas Friborg
Biogeosciences, 13, 6545–6563, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6545-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6545-2016, 2016
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This study investigates whether the UAV (drone) based WDI can determine crop water stress from fields with open canopies (land surface consisting of both soil and canopy) and from fields where canopies are starting to senesce. This utility could solve issues that arise when applying the commonly used CWSI stress index. The WDI succeeded in providing accurate, high-resolution estimates of crop water stress at different growth stages of barley.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Henk-Jan van der Kolk, Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, Jacobus van Huissteden, Jeroen W. M. Pullens, and Frank Berendse
Biogeosciences, 13, 6229–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016, 2016
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Changes in tundra vegetation structure may amplify Arctic climate warming. Our simulations with a new tundra vegetation model suggest that precipitation increases favour grass abundance, whereas warming favours shrub dominance. However, abrupt permafrost thaw initiating wetland formation leads to grass dominance. Our simulations show that a wetter tundra, due to increased precipitation or abrupt permafrost thaw, could result in local shrub decline instead of the widely expected shrub expansion.
Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Christian Beer
The Cryosphere, 10, 2291–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016, 2016
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Bryophyte and lichen cover on the forest floor at high latitudes insulates the ground and thus decreases soil temperature. This can protect permafrost soil, stabilising it against global warming. To quantify the insulating effect, we integrate a novel, process-based model of bryophyte and lichen growth into the global land surface model JSBACH. We find an average cooling effect of the bryophyte and lichen cover of 2.7 K, which implies a significant impact on soil temperature at high latitudes.
Annett Bartsch, Barbara Widhalm, Peter Kuhry, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, and Matthias Benjamin Siewert
Biogeosciences, 13, 5453–5470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5453-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5453-2016, 2016
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A new approach for the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools north of the tree line has been developed based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the ENVISAT satellite. It can be shown that measurements of C-band SAR under frozen conditions represent vegetation and surface structure properties which relate to soil properties, specifically SOC. The approach provides the first spatially consistent account of soil organic carbon across the Arctic.
Christian Beer, Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Matthias Brakebusch
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-210, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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Models suggest thawing permafrost in future due to climate change. In addition to warming, day-to-day variability of air temperature and precipitation is projected to increase. In an idealized theoretical model experiment we show that such changing short-term variability will reduce soil warming as a consequence of air warming by up to 1 K due to effects on snow and moss insulating layers. This shows the need of a mechanistic representation of such layers in Earth system models.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Stefan Hagemann, Tanja Blome, Altug Ekici, and Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 611–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, 2016
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The present study analyses how cold-region physical soil processes, especially freezing of soil water, impact large-scale hydrology and climate over Northern Hemisphere high-latitude land areas. For this analysis, an atmosphere–land global climate model was used. It is shown that including these processes in the model leads to improved discharge in spring and a positive land–atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes that has previously not been noted for the high latitudes.
Christian Stiegler, Magnus Lund, Torben Røjle Christensen, Mikhail Mastepanov, and Anders Lindroth
The Cryosphere, 10, 1395–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1395-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1395-2016, 2016
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In this study we investigate the impact of strong variability in snow accumulation during 2 subsequent years (2013–2014) on the land–atmosphere interactions and surface energy exchange in two high-Arctic tundra ecosystems (wet fen and dry heath) in Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland. We observe that the energy balance during the snowmelt periods and growing seasons was strongly regulated by the availability of snow meltwater, with strong impact on the overall ecosystem performance.
Malte Winther, David Balslev-Harder, Søren Christensen, Anders Priemé, Bo Elberling, Eric Crosson, and Thomas Blunier
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-258, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-258, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important and strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and part of climate. N2O is produced by microbes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The properties of each specific molecule can be used to determine the source. We implemented continuous measurements of N2O during incubation of denitrifying bacteria and believe that similar experiments will lead to a better understanding of N2O turnover and on the biotic mechanisms behind greenhouse gas exchange of the Globe.
Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Mario Herrero, Petr Havlik, Matteo Campioli, Xianzhou Zhang, Yongfei Bai, Nicolas Viovy, Joanna Joiner, Xuhui Wang, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Shilong Piao, Tao Wang, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Jean-Francois Soussana, Anna Peregon, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Biogeosciences, 13, 3757–3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, 2016
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We derived the global maps of grassland management intensity of 1901–2012, including the minimum area of managed grassland with fraction of mown/grazed part. These maps, to our knowledge for the first time, provide global, time-dependent information for drawing up global estimates of management impact on biomass production and yields and for global vegetation models to enable simulations of carbon stocks and GHG budgets beyond simple tuning of grassland productivities to account for management.
Kjersti Gisnås, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Kjetil Melvold, and Bernd Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 10, 1201–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1201-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1201-2016, 2016
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In wind exposed areas snow redistribution results in large spatial variability in ground temperatures. In these areas, the ground temperature of a grid cell must be determined based on the distribution, and not the average, of snow depths. We employ distribution functions of snow in a regional permafrost model, showing highly improved representation of ground temperatures. By including snow distributions, we find the permafrost area to be nearly twice as large as what is modelled without.
Gustaf Hugelius, Peter Kuhry, and Charles Tarnocai
Biogeosciences, 13, 2003–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2003-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2003-2016, 2016
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We investigate the properties of soils and sediments in a particular and ancient Siberian permafrost landscape. We critically examine statements from a recent study that specific permafrost landforms affected by thawed permafrost (alases) in this region contain very large quantities of peat that previous studies had failed to include because of data set biases. We conclude that there is no evidence to suggest biases in existing data sets or that alas deposits increase the northern peatland pool.
Fabian Beermann, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Wetterich, Jens Strauss, Julia Boike, Claudia Fiencke, Lutz Schirrmeister, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper aims to quantify pools of inorganic nitrogen in permafrost soils of arctic Siberia and to estimate annual release rates of this nitrogen due to permafrost thaw. We report for the first time stores of inorganic nitrogen in Siberian permafrost soils. These nitrogen stores are important as permafrost thaw can mobilize substantial amounts of nitrogen, potentially changing the nutrient balance of these soils and representing a significant non-carbon permafrost climate feedback.
Klaus Haslinger and Annett Bartsch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1211–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1211-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1211-2016, 2016
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Gridded fields of daily max. and min. temperatures for the Austrian domain are used to calculate ET0 based on a re-calibrated Hargreaves method. Newly derived, station-based calibration parameters, with Penman–Monteith ET0 as a reference, show a distinct altitude and seasonal dependence. Theses features are used to interpolate the new calibration values in space and time onto the temperature grids. The ET0 is then calculated based on the entire gridded temperature data starting back in 1961.
Norbert Pirk, Mikhail Mastepanov, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Magnus Lund, Patrick Crill, and Torben R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 13, 903–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-903-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-903-2016, 2016
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The exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and the atmosphere is often measured by monitoring the gas concentrations inside a chamber which is placed on the ground. We investigated different ways to calculate the gas exchange rate and identified several different processes which influence the gas exchange measurement.
H. Hoffmann, H. Nieto, R. Jensen, R. Guzinski, P. Zarco-Tejada, and T. Friborg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 697–713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-697-2016, 2016
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Thermal images collected with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) are applied to algorithms originally developed to be operational with satellite images, in order to estimate evapotranspiration in very high resolution.
It is concluded that the thermal UAV data can be used for model input and for other potential applications requiring good quality, consistent, and high resolution land surface temperature.
S. Westermann, M. Langer, J. Boike, M. Heikenfeld, M. Peter, B. Etzelmüller, and G. Krinner
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 523–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, 2016
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Thawing of permafrost is governed by a complex interplay of different processes, of which only conductive heat transfer is taken into account in most model studies. We present a new land-surface scheme designed for permafrost applications, CryoGrid 3, which constitutes a flexible platform to explore new parameterizations for a range of permafrost processes.
W. Wang, A. Rinke, J. C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D. M. Lawrence, A. D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, 2016
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We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, D. Zhu, T. Wang, S. S. Peng, and S. L. Piao
Biogeosciences, 13, 675–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, 2016
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The pan-boreal biome (> N45°) removes CO2 from the atmosphere (i.e., it is a carbon sink). Fires can alter this carbon balance because they release CO2 to the atmosphere but also initiate a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. We found that historical fires of 1850–2009 have a small net sink contribution (~6 %) to the 2000–2009 regional carbon sink, which is a balance between immediate source effect of fires in 2000–2009 and sink effects of those in 1850–1999.
M. E. Marushchak, T. Friborg, C. Biasi, M. Herbst, T. Johansson, I. Kiepe, M. Liimatainen, S. E. Lind, P. J. Martikainen, T. Virtanen, H. Soegaard, and N. J. Shurpali
Biogeosciences, 13, 597–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-597-2016, 2016
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Arctic region is experiencing an unprecedented rise in permafrost temperatures leading to permafrsot thawing with dire implications for ecosystem structure and functioning. Therefore, it imperative to understand the behaviour of Arctic ecosystems under present climatic conditions so that we are equipped with the information to predict their future behaviour. This study presents field data on methane exchange from Seida, located in NW Siberia, Russia measured using various biogeochemical tools.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
J. Boike, C. Georgi, G. Kirilin, S. Muster, K. Abramova, I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, M. Grigoriev, N. Bornemann, and M. Langer
Biogeosciences, 12, 5941–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, 2015
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We show that lakes in northern Siberia are very efficient with respect to energy absorption and mixing using measurements as well as numerical modeling. We show that (i) the lakes receive substantial energy for warming from net short-wave radiation; (ii) convective mixing occurs beneath the ice cover, follow beneath the ice cover, following ice break-up, summer, and fall (iii) modeling suggests that the annual mean net heat flux across the bottom sediment boundary is approximately zero.
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
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We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
S. Miyazaki, K. Saito, J. Mori, T. Yamazaki, T. Ise, H. Arakida, T. Hajima, Y. Iijima, H. Machiya, T. Sueyoshi, H. Yabuki, E. J. Burke, M. Hosaka, K. Ichii, H. Ikawa, A. Ito, A. Kotani, Y. Matsuura, M. Niwano, T. Nitta, R. O'ishi, T. Ohta, H. Park, T. Sasai, A. Sato, H. Sato, A. Sugimoto, R. Suzuki, K. Tanaka, S. Yamaguchi, and K. Yoshimura
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, 2015
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The paper provides an overall outlook and the Stage 1 experiment (site simulations) protocol of GTMIP, an open model intercomparison project for terrestrial Arctic, conducted as an activity of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). Models are driven by 34-year data created with the GRENE-TEA observations at four sites in Finland, Siberia and Alaska, and evaluated for physico-ecological key processes: energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budget.
I. Beck, R. Ludwig, M. Bernier, T. Strozzi, and J. Boike
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 409–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, 2015
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
N. Gentsch, R. Mikutta, R. J. E. Alves, J. Barta, P. Čapek, A. Gittel, G. Hugelius, P. Kuhry, N. Lashchinskiy, J. Palmtag, A. Richter, H. Šantrůčková, J. Schnecker, O. Shibistova, T. Urich, B. Wild, and G. Guggenberger
Biogeosciences, 12, 4525–4542, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4525-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4525-2015, 2015
D. Zhu, S. S. Peng, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, A. Druel, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, D. Schepaschenko, and A. Shvidenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2263–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, 2015
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This study presents a new parameterization of the vegetation dynamics module in the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE for mid- to high-latitude regions, showing significant improvements in the modeled distribution of tree functional types north of 40°N. A new set of metrics is proposed to quantify the performance of ORCHIDEE, which integrates uncertainties in the observational data sets.
M. Vanselow-Algan, S. R. Schmidt, M. Greven, C. Fiencke, L. Kutzbach, and E.-M. Pfeiffer
Biogeosciences, 12, 4361–4371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4361-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4361-2015, 2015
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
S. Westermann, T. I. Østby, K. Gisnås, T. V. Schuler, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 9, 1303–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, 2015
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We use remotely sensed land surface temperature and land cover in conjunction with air temperature and snowfall from a reanalysis product as input for a simple permafrost model. The scheme is applied to the permafrost regions bordering the North Atlantic. A comparison with ground temperatures in boreholes suggests a modeling accuracy of 2 to 2.5 °C.
T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Grosse, J. Strauss, L. Schirrmeister, A. Morgenstern, S. Schaphoff, M. Meinshausen, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, 2015
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We have modelled the carbon release from thawing permafrost soils under various scenarios of future warming. Our results suggests that up to about 140Pg of carbon could be released under strong warming by end of the century. We have shown that abrupt thaw processes under thermokarst lakes can unlock large amounts of perennially frozen carbon stored in deep deposits (which extend many metres into the soil).
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
S. Westermann, B. Elberling, S. Højlund Pedersen, M. Stendel, B. U. Hansen, and G. E. Liston
The Cryosphere, 9, 719–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, 2015
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The development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is influenced by many factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. We present numerical simulations of ground temperatures for the Zackenberg valley in NE Greenland, which take into account the spatial variability of snow depths, surface and ground properties at a scale of 10m. The ensemble of the model grid cells suggests a spatial variability of annual average ground temperatures of up to 5°C.
M. Fuchs, P. Kuhry, and G. Hugelius
The Cryosphere, 9, 427–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-427-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-427-2015, 2015
M. Langer, S. Westermann, K. Walter Anthony, K. Wischnewski, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, 2015
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Methane production rates of Arctic ponds during the freezing period within a typical tundra landscape in northern Siberia are presented. Production rates were inferred by inverse modeling based on measured methane concentrations in the ice cover. Results revealed marked differences in early winter methane production among ponds showing different stages of shore degradation. This suggests that shore erosion can increase methane production of Arctic ponds by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude.
I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, D. Bolshiyanov, A. Makarov, J. Boike, B. Heim, A. Morgenstern, P. P. Overduin, C. Wegner, V. Kashina, A. Eulenburg, E. Dobrotina, and I. Sidorina
Biogeosciences, 12, 345–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, 2015
C. Metzger, P.-E. Jansson, A. Lohila, M. Aurela, T. Eickenscheidt, L. Belelli-Marchesini, K. J. Dinsmore, J. Drewer, J. van Huissteden, and M. Drösler
Biogeosciences, 12, 125–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-125-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-125-2015, 2015
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To identify site specific differences in CO2-related processes in open peatlands, we calibrated a process oriented model to fit to detailed measurements of carbon fluxes and compared the resulting parameter ranges between the sites. For most processes a common configuration could be applied. Site specific differences were identified for soil respiration coefficients, plant radiation-use efficiencies and plant storage fractions for spring regrowth.
G. Hugelius, J. Strauss, S. Zubrzycki, J. W. Harden, E. A. G. Schuur, C.-L. Ping, L. Schirrmeister, G. Grosse, G. J. Michaelson, C. D. Koven, J. A. O'Donnell, B. Elberling, U. Mishra, P. Camill, Z. Yu, J. Palmtag, and P. Kuhry
Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014
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This study provides an updated estimate of organic carbon stored in the northern permafrost region. The study includes estimates for carbon in soils (0 to 3 m depth) and deeper sediments in river deltas and the Yedoma region. We find that field data is still scarce from many regions. Total estimated carbon storage is ~1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of between 1100 and 1500 Pg. Around 800 Pg carbon is perennially frozen, equivalent to all carbon dioxide currently in the Earth's atmosphere.
J. Lüers, S. Westermann, K. Piel, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 11, 6307–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, 2014
K. Gisnås, S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, T. Litherland, K. Isaksen, J. Boike, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 8, 2063–2074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, 2014
H. N. Mbufong, M. Lund, M. Aurela, T. R. Christensen, W. Eugster, T. Friborg, B. U. Hansen, E. R. Humphreys, M. Jackowicz-Korczynski, L. Kutzbach, P. M. Lafleur, W. C. Oechel, F. J. W. Parmentier, D. P. Rasse, A. V. Rocha, T. Sachs, M. K. van der Molen, and M. P. Tamstorf
Biogeosciences, 11, 4897–4912, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4897-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4897-2014, 2014
A. Budishchev, Y. Mi, J. van Huissteden, L. Belelli-Marchesini, G. Schaepman-Strub, F. J. W. Parmentier, G. Fratini, A. Gallagher, T. C. Maximov, and A. J. Dolman
Biogeosciences, 11, 4651–4664, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4651-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4651-2014, 2014
S. Yi, K. Wischnewski, M. Langer, S. Muster, and J. Boike
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1671–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, 2014
Y. Mi, J. van Huissteden, F. J. W. Parmentier, A. Gallagher, A. Budishchev, C. T. Berridge, and A. J. Dolman
Biogeosciences, 11, 3985–3999, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3985-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3985-2014, 2014
Y. Mi, J. van Huissteden, and A. J. Dolman
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-8-3603-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-8-3603-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
C. Buendía, S. Arens, T. Hickler, S. I. Higgins, P. Porada, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 11, 3661–3683, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, 2014
A. Kleidon, M. Renner, and P. Porada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2201–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, 2014
O. Peltola, A. Hensen, C. Helfter, L. Belelli Marchesini, F. C. Bosveld, W. C. M. van den Bulk, J. A. Elbers, S. Haapanala, J. Holst, T. Laurila, A. Lindroth, E. Nemitz, T. Röckmann, A. T. Vermeulen, and I. Mammarella
Biogeosciences, 11, 3163–3186, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3163-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3163-2014, 2014
A. Ekici, C. Beer, S. Hagemann, J. Boike, M. Langer, and C. Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, 2014
J. D. Watts, J. S. Kimball, F. J. W. Parmentier, T. Sachs, J. Rinne, D. Zona, W. Oechel, T. Tagesson, M. Jackowicz-Korczyński, and M. Aurela
Biogeosciences, 11, 1961–1980, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1961-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1961-2014, 2014
G. Hugelius, J. G. Bockheim, P. Camill, B. Elberling, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, K. Johnson, T. Jorgenson, C. D. Koven, P. Kuhry, G. Michaelson, U. Mishra, J. Palmtag, C.-L. Ping, J. O'Donnell, L. Schirrmeister, E. A. G. Schuur, Y. Sheng, L. C. Smith, J. Strauss, and Z. Yu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 393–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, 2013
S. Dengel, D. Zona, T. Sachs, M. Aurela, M. Jammet, F. J. W. Parmentier, W. Oechel, and T. Vesala
Biogeosciences, 10, 8185–8200, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8185-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8185-2013, 2013
P. Porada, B. Weber, W. Elbert, U. Pöschl, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 10, 6989–7033, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, 2013
I. Gouttevin, A. Bartsch, G. Krinner, and V. Naeimi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11241-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11241-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review
M. Mastepanov, C. Sigsgaard, T. Tagesson, L. Ström, M. P. Tamstorf, M. Lund, and T. R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 10, 5139–5158, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5139-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5139-2013, 2013
I. H. Taylor, E. Burke, L. McColl, P. D. Falloon, G. R. Harris, and D. McNeall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, 2013
S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, K. Gisnås, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 7, 719–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
G. Hugelius, C. Tarnocai, G. Broll, J. G. Canadell, P. Kuhry, and D. K. Swanson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 3–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-3-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-3-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Terrestrial
Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6
Does dynamically modeled leaf area improve predictions of land surface water and carbon fluxes? Insights into dynamic vegetation modules
Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models
X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X
A 2001–2022 global gross primary productivity dataset using an ensemble model based on the random forest method
Future projections of Siberian wildfire and aerosol emissions
Mechanisms of soil organic carbon and nitrogen stabilization in mineral-associated organic matter – insights from modeling in phase space
Optimizing the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity using carbonyl sulfide (COS) within a two-leaf modeling framework
Modeling integrated soil fertility management for maize production in Kenya using a Bayesian calibration of the DayCent model
Estimates of critical loads and exceedances of acidity and nutrient nitrogen for mineral soils in Canada for 2014–2016 average annual sulphur and nitrogen atmospheric deposition
Understanding and simulating cropland and non-cropland burning in Europe using the BASE (Burnt Area Simulator for Europe) model
When and why microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models can be unstable
The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback
Climate-based prediction of carbon fluxes from deadwood in Australia
Integration of tree hydraulic processes and functional impairment to capture the drought resilience of a semiarid pine forest
The effect of temperature on photosystem II efficiency across plant functional types and climate
Modeling microbial carbon fluxes and stocks in global soils from 1901 to 2016
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and vegetation structural changes contributed to gross primary productivity increase more than climate and forest cover changes in subtropical forests of China
Developing the DO3SE-crop model for Xiaoji, China
Non-steady-state stomatal conductance modeling and its implications: from leaf to ecosystem
Modelled forest ecosystem carbon–nitrogen dynamics with integrated mycorrhizal processes under elevated CO2
A chemical kinetics theory for interpreting the non-monotonic temperature dependence of enzymatic reactions
Using Free Air CO2 Enrichment data to constrain land surface model projections of the terrestrial carbon cycle
Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance
Simulating net ecosystem exchange under seasonal snow cover at an Arctic tundra site
Spatial biases reduce the ability of Earth system models to simulate soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes
Future methane fluxes of peatlands are controlled by management practices and fluctuations in hydrological conditions due to climatic variability
Tropical dry forest response to nutrient fertilization: a model validation and sensitivity analysis
Connecting competitor, stress-tolerator and ruderal (CSR) theory and Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land 5 (LPJmL 5) to assess the role of environmental conditions, management and functional diversity for grassland ecosystem functions
A global fuel characteristic model and dataset for wildfire prediction
Can models adequately reflect how long-term nitrogen enrichment alters the forest soil carbon cycle?
Temporal variability of observed and simulated gross primary productivity, modulated by vegetation state and hydrometeorological drivers
Empirical upscaling of OzFlux eddy covariance for high-resolution monitoring of terrestrial carbon uptake in Australia
A modeling approach to investigate drivers, variability and uncertainties in O2 fluxes and O2 : CO2 exchange ratios in a temperate forest
Modeling coupled nitrification–denitrification in soil with an organic hotspot
A new method for estimating carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forest soils for the greenhouse gas inventory of Finland
Enabling a process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model to simulate soil erosion and nutrient losses
Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 1: A mechanistic model simulating the effects of potassium availability on canopy carbon and water fluxes in tropical eucalypt stands
Potassium limitation of forest productivity – Part 2: CASTANEA-MAESPA-K shows a reduction in photosynthesis rather than a stoichiometric limitation of tissue formation
Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance
Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration
Optimizing the carbonic anhydrase temperature response and stomatal conductance of carbonyl sulfide leaf uptake in the Simple Biosphere model (SiB4)
Exploring environmental and physiological drivers of the annual carbon budget of biocrusts from various climatic zones with a mechanistic data-driven model
Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance
Mapping of ESA's Climate Change Initiative land cover data to plant functional types for use in the CLASSIC land model
Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies
Effect of droughts and climate change on future soil weathering rates in Sweden
Information content in time series of litter decomposition studies and the transit time of litter in arid lands
Long-term changes of nitrogen leaching and the contributions of terrestrial nutrient sources to lake eutrophication dynamics on the Yangtze Plain of China
Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024
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This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.
Sven Armin Westermann, Anke Hildebrandt, Souhail Bousetta, and Stephan Thober
Biogeosciences, 21, 5277–5303, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5277-2024, 2024
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Plants at the land surface mediate between soil and the atmosphere regarding water and carbon transport. Since plant growth is a dynamic process, models need to consider these dynamics. Two models that predict water and carbon fluxes by considering plant temporal evolution were tested against observational data. Currently, dynamizing plants in these models did not enhance their representativeness, which is caused by a mismatch between implemented physical relations and observable connections.
Kamal Nyaupane, Umakant Mishra, Feng Tao, Kyongmin Yeo, William J. Riley, Forrest M. Hoffman, and Sagar Gautam
Biogeosciences, 21, 5173–5183, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, 2024
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Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Using machine learning, we develop and compare predictive relationships in observations (Obs) and ESMs. We find different relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks in Obs and ESMs. SOC prediction in ESMs may be improved by representing the functional relationships of environmental controllers in a way consistent with observations.
Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Ulrich Weber, Kimberly Novick, Nina Buchmann, Mirco Migliavacca, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ladislav Šigut, Andreas Ibrom, Dario Papale, Mathias Göckede, Gregory Duveiller, Alexander Knohl, Lukas Hörtnagl, Russell L. Scott, Weijie Zhang, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, Markus Reichstein, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Jonas Ardö, Maarten Op de Beeck, Dave Billesbach, David Bowling, Rosvel Bracho, Christian Brümmer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Shiping Chen, Jamie Rose Cleverly, Ankur Desai, Gang Dong, Tarek S. El-Madany, Eugenie Susanne Euskirchen, Iris Feigenwinter, Marta Galvagno, Giacomo A. Gerosa, Bert Gielen, Ignacio Goded, Sarah Goslee, Christopher Michael Gough, Bernard Heinesch, Kazuhito Ichii, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Anne Klosterhalfen, Sara Knox, Hideki Kobayashi, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Mika Korkiakoski, Ivan Mammarella, Mana Gharun, Riccardo Marzuoli, Roser Matamala, Stefan Metzger, Leonardo Montagnani, Giacomo Nicolini, Thomas O'Halloran, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Borja Ruiz Reverter, Marilyn Roland, Simone Sabbatini, Torsten Sachs, Marius Schmidt, Christopher R. Schwalm, Ankit Shekhar, Richard Silberstein, Maria Lucia Silveira, Donatella Spano, Torbern Tagesson, Gianluca Tramontana, Carlo Trotta, Fabio Turco, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Domenico Vitale, Enrique R. Vivoni, Yi Wang, William Woodgate, Enrico A. Yepez, Junhui Zhang, Donatella Zona, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 21, 5079–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, 2024
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The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand because it impacts our lives. Here, we outline a method called FLUXCOM-X to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from sites around the world. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.
Xin Chen, Tiexi Chen, Xiaodong Li, Yuanfang Chai, Shengjie Zhou, Renjie Guo, and Jie Dai
Biogeosciences, 21, 4285–4300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4285-2024, 2024
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We provide an ensemble-model-based GPP dataset (ERF_GPP) that explains 85.1 % of the monthly variation in GPP across 170 sites, which is higher than other GPP estimate models. In addition, ERF_GPP improves the phenomenon of “high-value underestimation and low-value overestimation” in GPP estimation to some extent. Overall, ERF_GPP provides a more reliable estimate of global GPP and will facilitate further development of carbon cycle research.
Reza Kusuma Nurrohman, Tomomichi Kato, Hideki Ninomiya, Lea Végh, Nicolas Delbart, Tatsuya Miyauchi, Hisashi Sato, Tomohiro Shiraishi, and Ryuichi Hirata
Biogeosciences, 21, 4195–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4195-2024, 2024
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SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) was integrated into a spatially explicit individual-based dynamic global vegetation model to improve the accuracy of depicting Siberian forest fire frequency, intensity, and extent. Fires showed increased greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions in 2006–2100 for Representative Concentration Pathways. This study contributes to understanding fire dynamics, land ecosystem–climate interactions, and global material cycles under the threat of escalating fires.
Stefano Manzoni and M. Francesca Cotrufo
Biogeosciences, 21, 4077–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4077-2024, 2024
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Organic carbon and nitrogen are stabilized in soils via microbial assimilation and stabilization of necromass (in vivo pathway) or via adsorption of the products of extracellular decomposition (ex vivo pathway). Here we use a diagnostic model to quantify which stabilization pathway is prevalent using data on residue-derived carbon and nitrogen incorporation in mineral-associated organic matter. We find that the in vivo pathway is dominant in fine-textured soils with low organic matter content.
Huajie Zhu, Xiuli Xing, Mousong Wu, Weimin Ju, and Fei Jiang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3735–3760, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3735-2024, 2024
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Ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes were employed to optimize GPP estimation across ecosystems with the Biosphere-atmosphere Exchange Process Simulator (BEPS), which was developed for simulating the canopy COS uptake under its state-of-the-art two-leaf modeling framework. Our results showcased the efficacy of COS in improving model prediction and reducing prediction uncertainty of GPP and enhanced insights into the sensitivity, identifiability, and interactions of parameters related to COS.
Moritz Laub, Magdalena Necpalova, Marijn Van de Broek, Marc Corbeels, Samuel Mathu Ndungu, Monicah Wanjiku Mucheru-Muna, Daniel Mugendi, Rebecca Yegon, Wycliffe Waswa, Bernard Vanlauwe, and Johan Six
Biogeosciences, 21, 3691–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3691-2024, 2024
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We used the DayCent model to assess the potential impact of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) on maize production, soil fertility, and greenhouse gas emission in Kenya. After adjustments, DayCent represented measured mean yields and soil carbon stock changes well and N2O emissions acceptably. Our results showed that soil fertility losses could be reduced but not completely eliminated with ISFM and that, while N2O emissions increased with ISFM, emissions per kilogram yield decreased.
Hazel Cathcart, Julian Aherne, Michael D. Moran, Verica Savic-Jovcic, Paul A. Makar, and Amanda Cole
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2371, 2024
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Deposition from sulfur and nitrogen pollution can harm ecosystems, and recovery from this type of pollution can take decades or longer. To identify risk to Canadian soils, we created maps showing sensitivity to sulfur and nitrogen pollution. Results show that some ecosystems are at risk from acid and nutrient nitrogen deposition; 10 % of protected areas are receiving acid deposition beyond their damage threshold and 70 % may be receiving nitrogen deposition that could cause biodiversity loss.
Matthew Forrest, Jessica Hetzer, Maik Billing, Simon P. K. Bowring, Eric Kosczor, Luke Oberhagemann, Oliver Perkins, Dan Warren, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Kirsten Thonicke, and Thomas Hickler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1973, 2024
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Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe but drivers of fire are not well understood, especially across different land cover types. We used statistical models with satellite data, climate data and socioeconomic data to determine what affects burning in cropland and non-cropland area Europe. We found different drivers of burning in cropland burning vs non-cropland, to the point that some variable, e.g. population density, had completely the opposite effects.
Erik Schwarz, Samia Ghersheen, Salim Belyazid, and Stefano Manzoni
Biogeosciences, 21, 3441–3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3441-2024, 2024
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The occurrence of unstable equilibrium points (EPs) could impede the applicability of microbial-explicit soil organic carbon models. For archetypal model versions we identify when instability can occur and describe mathematical conditions to avoid such unstable EPs. We discuss implications for further model development, highlighting the important role of considering basic ecological principles to ensure biologically meaningful models.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, and Libo Wang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3339–3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, 2024
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Terrestrial biosphere models can either prescribe the geographical distribution of biomes or simulate them dynamically, capturing climate-change-driven biome shifts. We isolate and examine the differences between these different land cover implementations. We find that the simulated terrestrial carbon sink at the end of the 21st century is twice as large in simulations with dynamic land cover than in simulations with prescribed land cover due to important range shifts in the Arctic and Amazon.
Elizabeth S. Duan, Luciana Chavez Rodriguez, Nicole Hemming-Schroeder, Baptiste Wijas, Habacuc Flores-Moreno, Alexander W. Cheesman, Lucas A. Cernusak, Michael J. Liddell, Paul Eggleton, Amy E. Zanne, and Steven D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 21, 3321–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3321-2024, 2024
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Understanding the link between climate and carbon fluxes is crucial for predicting how climate change will impact carbon sinks. We estimated carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from deadwood in tropical Australia using wood moisture content and temperature. Our model predicted that the majority of deadwood carbon is released as CO2, except when termite activity is detected. Future models should also incorporate wood traits, like species and chemical composition, to better predict fluxes.
Daniel Nadal-Sala, Rüdiger Grote, David Kraus, Uri Hochberg, Tamir Klein, Yael Wagner, Fedor Tatarinov, Dan Yakir, and Nadine K. Ruehr
Biogeosciences, 21, 2973–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2973-2024, 2024
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A hydraulic model approach is presented that can be added to any physiologically based ecosystem model. Simulated plant water potential triggers stomatal closure, photosynthesis decline, root–soil resistance increases, and sapwood and foliage senescence. The model has been evaluated at an extremely dry site stocked with Aleppo pine and was able to represent gas exchange, soil water content, and plant water potential. The model also responded realistically regarding leaf senescence.
Patrick Neri, Lianhong Gu, and Yang Song
Biogeosciences, 21, 2731–2758, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2731-2024, 2024
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A first-of-its-kind global-scale model of temperature resilience and tolerance of photosystem II maximum quantum yield informs how plants maintain their efficiency of converting light energy to chemical energy for photosynthesis under temperature changes. Our finding explores this variation across plant functional types and habitat climatology, highlighting diverse temperature response strategies and a method to improve global-scale photosynthesis modeling under climate change.
Liyuan He, Jorge L. Mazza Rodrigues, Melanie A. Mayes, Chun-Ta Lai, David A. Lipson, and Xiaofeng Xu
Biogeosciences, 21, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2313-2024, 2024
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Soil microbes are the driving engine for biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients. This study applies a microbial-explicit model to quantify bacteria and fungal biomass carbon in soils from 1901 to 2016. Results showed substantial increases in bacterial and fungal biomass carbon over the past century, jointly influenced by vegetation growth and soil temperature and moisture. This pioneering century-long estimation offers crucial insights into soil microbial roles in global carbon cycling.
Tao Chen, Félicien Meunier, Marc Peaucelle, Guoping Tang, Ye Yuan, and Hans Verbeeck
Biogeosciences, 21, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024, 2024
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Chinese subtropical forest ecosystems are an extremely important component of global forest ecosystems and hence crucial for the global carbon cycle and regional climate change. However, there is still great uncertainty in the relationship between subtropical forest carbon sequestration and its drivers. We provide first quantitative estimates of the individual and interactive effects of different drivers on the gross primary productivity changes of various subtropical forest types in China.
Pritha Pande, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Jo Cook, Zhaozhong Feng, and Lisa Emberson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-694, 2024
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The DO3SE-crop model extends the DO3SE to simulate ozone's impact on crops with modules for ozone uptake, damage, and crop growth from JULES-Crop. It's versatile, suits China's varied agriculture, and improves yield predictions under ozone stress. It is essential for policy, water management, and climate response, it integrates into Earth System Models for a comprehensive understanding of agriculture's interaction with global systems.
Ke Liu, Yujie Wang, Troy S. Magney, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 21, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1501-2024, 2024
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Stomata are pores on leaves that regulate gas exchange between plants and the atmosphere. Existing land models unrealistically assume stomata can jump between steady states when the environment changes. We implemented dynamic modeling to predict gradual stomatal responses at different scales. Results suggested that considering this effect on plant behavior patterns in diurnal cycles was important. Our framework also simplified simulations and can contribute to further efficiency improvements.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
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Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 21, 1061–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, 2024
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A chemical kinetics theory is proposed to explain the non-monotonic relationship between temperature and biochemical rates. It incorporates the observed thermally reversible enzyme denaturation that is ensured by the ceaseless thermal motion of molecules and ions in an enzyme solution and three well-established theories: (1) law of mass action, (2) diffusion-limited chemical reaction theory, and (3) transition state theory.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
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Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Kelsey T. Foster, Wu Sun, Yoichi P. Shiga, Jiafu Mao, and Anna M. Michalak
Biogeosciences, 21, 869–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-869-2024, 2024
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Assessing agreement between bottom-up and top-down methods across spatial scales can provide insights into the relationship between ensemble spread (difference across models) and model accuracy (difference between model estimates and reality). We find that ensemble spread is unlikely to be a good indicator of actual uncertainty in the North American carbon balance. However, models that are consistent with atmospheric constraints show stronger agreement between top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
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We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
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Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Vilna Tyystjärvi, Tiina Markkanen, Leif Backman, Maarit Raivonen, Antti Leppänen, Xuefei Li, Paavo Ojanen, Kari Minkkinen, Roosa Hautala, Mikko Peltoniemi, Jani Anttila, Raija Laiho, Annalea Lohila, Raisa Mäkipää, and Tuula Aalto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3037, 2024
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Drainage of boreal peatlands strongly influences soil methane fluxes with important implications to their climatic impacts. Here we simulate methane fluxes in forestry-drained and restored peatlands during the 21st century. We found that restoration turned peatlands to a source of methane but the magnitude varied regionally. In forests, changes in water table level influenced methane fluxes and in general, the sink was weaker under rotational forestry compared to continuous cover forestry.
Shuyue Li, Bonnie Waring, Jennifer Powers, and David Medvigy
Biogeosciences, 21, 455–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-455-2024, 2024
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We used an ecosystem model to simulate primary production of a tropical forest subjected to 3 years of nutrient fertilization. Simulations parameterized such that relative allocation to fine roots increased with increasing soil phosphorus had leaf, wood, and fine root production consistent with observations. However, these simulations seemed to over-allocate to fine roots on multidecadal timescales, affecting aboveground biomass. Additional observations across timescales would benefit models.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Joe R. McNorton and Francesca Di Giuseppe
Biogeosciences, 21, 279–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-279-2024, 2024
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Wildfires have wide-ranging consequences for local communities, air quality and ecosystems. Vegetation amount and moisture state are key components to forecast wildfires. We developed a combined model and satellite framework to characterise vegetation, including the type of fuel, whether it is alive or dead, and its moisture content. The daily data is at high resolution globally (~9 km). Our characteristics correlate with active fire data and can inform fire danger and spread modelling efforts.
Brooke A. Eastman, William R. Wieder, Melannie D. Hartman, Edward R. Brzostek, and William T. Peterjohn
Biogeosciences, 21, 201–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-201-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-201-2024, 2024
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We compared soil model performance to data from a long-term nitrogen addition experiment in a forested ecosystem. We found that in order for soil carbon models to accurately predict future forest carbon sequestration, two key processes must respond dynamically to nitrogen availability: (1) plant allocation of carbon to wood versus roots and (2) rates of soil organic matter decomposition. Long-term experiments can help improve our predictions of the land carbon sink and its climate impact.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
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The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Chad A. Burton, Luigi J. Renzullo, Sami W. Rifai, and Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4109–4134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4109-2023, 2023
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Australia's land-based ecosystems play a critical role in controlling the variability in the global land carbon sink. However, uncertainties in the methods used for quantifying carbon fluxes limit our understanding. We develop high-resolution estimates of Australia's land carbon fluxes using machine learning methods and find that Australia is, on average, a stronger carbon sink than previously thought and that the seasonal dynamics of the fluxes differ from those described by other methods.
Yuan Yan, Anne Klosterhalfen, Fernando Moyano, Matthias Cuntz, Andrew C. Manning, and Alexander Knohl
Biogeosciences, 20, 4087–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4087-2023, 2023
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A better understanding of O2 fluxes, their exchange ratios with CO2 and their interrelations with environmental conditions would provide further insights into biogeochemical ecosystem processes. We, therefore, used the multilayer canopy model CANVEG to simulate and analyze the flux exchange for our forest study site for 2012–2016. Based on these simulations, we further successfully tested the application of various micrometeorological methods and the prospects of real O2 flux measurements.
Jie Zhang, Elisabeth Larsen Kolstad, Wenxin Zhang, Iris Vogeler, and Søren O. Petersen
Biogeosciences, 20, 3895–3917, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3895-2023, 2023
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Manure application to agricultural land often results in large and variable N2O emissions. We propose a model with a parsimonious structure to investigate N transformations around such N2O hotspots. The model allows for new detailed insights into the interactions between transport and microbial activities regarding N2O emissions in heterogeneous soil environments. It highlights the importance of solute diffusion to N2O emissions from such hotspots which are often ignored by process-based models.
Jukka Alm, Antti Wall, Jukka-Pekka Myllykangas, Paavo Ojanen, Juha Heikkinen, Helena M. Henttonen, Raija Laiho, Kari Minkkinen, Tarja Tuomainen, and Juha Mikola
Biogeosciences, 20, 3827–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023, 2023
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In Finland peatlands cover one-third of land area. For half of those, with 4.3 Mha being drained for forestry, Finland reports sinks and sources of greenhouse gases in forest lands on organic soils following its UNFCCC commitment. We describe a new method for compiling soil CO2 balance that follows changes in tree volume, tree harvests and temperature. An increasing trend of emissions from 1.4 to 7.9 Mt CO2 was calculated for drained peatland forest soils in Finland for 1990–2021.
Siqi Li, Bo Zhu, Xunhua Zheng, Pengcheng Hu, Shenghui Han, Jihui Fan, Tao Wang, Rui Wang, Kai Wang, Zhisheng Yao, Chunyan Liu, Wei Zhang, and Yong Li
Biogeosciences, 20, 3555–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3555-2023, 2023
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Physical soil erosion and particulate carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus loss modules were incorporated into the process-oriented hydro-biogeochemical model CNMM-DNDC to realize the accurate simulation of water-induced erosion and subsequent particulate nutrient losses at high spatiotemporal resolution.
Ivan Cornut, Nicolas Delpierre, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, Otavio Campoe, Jose Luiz Stape, Vitoria Fernanda Santos, and Guerric le Maire
Biogeosciences, 20, 3093–3117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3093-2023, 2023
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Potassium is an essential element for living organisms. Trees are dependent upon this element for certain functions that allow them to build their trunks using carbon dioxide. Using data from experiments in eucalypt plantations in Brazil and a simplified computer model of the plantations, we were able to investigate the effect that a lack of potassium can have on the production of wood. Understanding nutrient cycles is useful to understand the response of forests to environmental change.
Ivan Cornut, Guerric le Maire, Jean-Paul Laclau, Joannès Guillemot, Yann Nouvellon, and Nicolas Delpierre
Biogeosciences, 20, 3119–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3119-2023, 2023
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After simulating the effects of low levels of potassium on the canopy of trees and the uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by leaves in Part 1, here we tried to simulate the way the trees use the carbon they have acquired and the interaction with the potassium cycle in the tree. We show that the effect of low potassium on the efficiency of the trees in acquiring carbon is enough to explain why they produce less wood when they are in soils with low levels of potassium.
Xiaojuan Yang, Peter Thornton, Daniel Ricciuto, Yilong Wang, and Forrest Hoffman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2813–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, 2023
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We evaluated the performance of a land surface model (ELMv1-CNP) that includes both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) limitation on carbon cycle processes. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. We show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation. Our study suggests that introduction of P limitation in land surface models is likely to have substantial consequences for projections of future carbon uptake.
Kevin R. Wilcox, Scott L. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, William Pockman, Zheng Shi, Melinda D. Smith, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 20, 2707–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023, 2023
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The capacity for carbon storage (C capacity) is an attribute that determines how ecosystems store carbon in the future. Here, we employ novel data–model integration techniques to identify the carbon capacity of six grassland sites spanning the US Great Plains. Hot and dry sites had low C capacity due to less plant growth and high turnover of soil C, so they may be a C source in the future. Alternately, cooler and wetter ecosystems had high C capacity, so these systems may be a future C sink.
Ara Cho, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Richard Wehr, and Maarten C. Krol
Biogeosciences, 20, 2573–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2573-2023, 2023
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Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is a useful constraint for estimating photosynthesis. To simulate COS leaf flux better in the SiB4 model, we propose a novel temperature function for enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity and optimize conductances using observations. The optimal activity of CA occurs below 40 °C, and Ball–Woodrow–Berry parameters are slightly changed. These reduce/increase uptakes in the tropics/higher latitudes and contribute to resolving discrepancies in the COS global budget.
Yunyao Ma, Bettina Weber, Alexandra Kratz, José Raggio, Claudia Colesie, Maik Veste, Maaike Y. Bader, and Philipp Porada
Biogeosciences, 20, 2553–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, 2023
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We found that the modelled annual carbon balance of biocrusts is strongly affected by both the environment (mostly air temperature and CO2 concentration) and physiology, such as temperature response of respiration. However, the relative impacts of these drivers vary across regions with different climates. Uncertainty in driving factors may lead to unrealistic carbon balance estimates, particularly in temperate climates, and may be explained by seasonal variation of physiology due to acclimation.
Alexander J. Norton, A. Anthony Bloom, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Paul A. Levine, Shuang Ma, Renato K. Braghiere, and T. Luke Smallman
Biogeosciences, 20, 2455–2484, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023, 2023
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This study explores how the representation of leaf phenology affects our ability to predict changes to the carbon balance of land ecosystems. We calibrate a new leaf phenology model against a diverse range of observations at six forest sites, showing that it improves the predictive capability of the processes underlying the ecosystem carbon balance. We then show how changes in temperature and rainfall affect the ecosystem carbon balance with this new model.
Libo Wang, Vivek K. Arora, Paul Bartlett, Ed Chan, and Salvatore R. Curasi
Biogeosciences, 20, 2265–2282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, 2023
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Plant functional types (PFTs) are groups of plant species used to represent vegetation distribution in land surface models. There are large uncertainties associated with existing methods for mapping land cover datasets to PFTs. This study demonstrates how fine-resolution tree cover fraction and land cover datasets can be used to inform the PFT mapping process and reduce the uncertainties. The proposed largely objective method makes it easier to implement new land cover products in models.
Jennifer A. Holm, David M. Medvigy, Benjamin Smith, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Claus Beier, Mikhail Mishurov, Xiangtao Xu, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Craig D. Allen, Klaus S. Larsen, Yiqi Luo, Cari Ficken, William T. Pockman, William R. L. Anderegg, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 20, 2117–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, 2023
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Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Veronika Kronnäs, Klas Lucander, Giuliana Zanchi, Nadja Stadlinger, Salim Belyazid, and Cecilia Akselsson
Biogeosciences, 20, 1879–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1879-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1879-2023, 2023
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In a future climate, extreme droughts might become more common. Climate change and droughts can have negative effects on soil weathering and plant health.
In this study, climate change effects on weathering were studied on sites in Sweden using the model ForSAFE, a climate change scenario and an extreme drought scenario. The modelling shows that weathering is higher during summer and increases with global warming but that weathering during drought summers can become as low as winter weathering.
Agustín Sarquis and Carlos A. Sierra
Biogeosciences, 20, 1759–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1759-2023, 2023
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Although plant litter is chemically and physically heterogenous and undergoes multiple transformations, models that represent litter dynamics often ignore this complexity. We used a multi-model inference framework to include information content in litter decomposition datasets and studied the time it takes for litter to decompose as measured by the transit time. In arid lands, the median transit time of litter is about 3 years and has a negative correlation with mean annual temperature.
Qi Guan, Jing Tang, Lian Feng, Stefan Olin, and Guy Schurgers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, 2023
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Understanding terrestrial sources of nitrogen is vital to examine lake eutrophication changes. Combining process-based ecosystem modeling and satellite observations, we found that land-leached nitrogen in the Yangtze Plain significantly increased from 1979 to 2018, and terrestrial nutrient sources were positively correlated with eutrophication trends observed in most lakes, demonstrating the necessity of sustainable nitrogen management to control eutrophication.
Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023
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The behaviour of natural systems is now very often represented through mathematical models. These models represent our understanding of how nature works. Of course, nature does not care about our understanding. Since our understanding is not perfect, evaluating models is challenging, and there are uncertainties. This paper illustrates this uncertainty for land models and argues that evaluating models in light of the uncertainty in various components provides useful information.
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Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is...
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